This is a follow up to my first offseason roster thoughts post. A lot has already happened since then. At the time I wrote most of that post, Roman was still the OC. We found out he was fired just before I posted it, but we did not yet know McDaniel would succeed him. That changes quite a bit, so I want to show a path through free agency and draft that I believe would set the Chargers up as a top contender in 2026.

Players Currently Under Contract in 2026

The Chargers currently have 52 players under contract for 2026. Here they are, along with their current 2026 cap hits from Over the Cap:

(I don’t know how to fix the row height for a bunch of rows at the bottom of the table.)

Roster Exclusions

In my previous offseason roster post, I identified RG Becton, Edge Dupree, TE Dissly, and WR Davis as possible cap casualties. So far, Becton, Dissly, C Bozeman, and OL Washington have been released.

I assumed Becton would be gone, and he is.

I assumed Dupree would be gone, and I still expect that. I assume it hasn’t happened yet simply due to the fact that both Oweh and Mack are UFAs. I expect both to be re-signed, and that timing will probably drive the timing of Dupree’s release.

I assumed Dissly would stay and make the final roster, but I assume moving from Roman to McDaniel drove this release. The Chargers now need to add multiple TEs.

I assumed Davis would remain on the roster through camp and preseason and would ultimately be traded or released. We will have to wait and see.

I did not predict Bozeman to be a cap casualty, despite his poor play for the Chargers. I thought he would be kept as a backup IOL, in part due to his ties to Hortiz, Harbaugh, and Roman. This is another change that was likely driven by the move from Roman to McDaniel. I’m happy about it.

I did not have OL Washington on my cap casualties list, but I did have him on my roster exclusions list, assuming he would not make the final roster.

With all due respect to these players currently on the active roster, I am going to assume none of them make the final 2026 53-man roster, and thus I am going to ignore them for the rest of this post:

• LS Bowden
• WR Campbell
• G Cleveland
• WR Davis
• Edge Dupree
• IDL Edwards
• IDL Fuga
• WR Grimm
• WR Jackson
• RB Amar Johnson
• S Emany Johnson
• C Kaltenberger
• TE McLachlan
• FB/IDL Matlock
• CB Oladokun
• RB Patterson
• Edge Randolph
• CB Rogers
• OL Taylor
• QB Uiagalelei
• OL Washington
• CB Waxter
• S Williamson
• TE Yassmin

I expect many of these players will have a shot at opening the season on the practice squad.

That leaves a core roster of 29 veteran players.

Draft Picks

The team has five 2026 draft picks, shown here with their projected 2026 cap hits from OverTheCap:

The Chargers are not projected to get any compensatory picks in the 2026 draft.

With no 7^th round picks, I expect these draft picks to all make the final roster. So far under Hortiz in two drafts, the Chargers have drafted 15 players in the first six draft rounds, and 14 were on the roster in 2025 (13 on the active roster and LB Colson on IR). The only exception was 2025 6^th round pick OL Taylor, who spent the season on the Chargers practice squad. Taylor is currently on the active roster, but he is on my exclusions list, since I don’t think he is good enough to make the opening active roster this year.

Roster Nucleus

Everything described above results in a roster nucleus of 29 veteran players and 5 draft picks. Here is the positional breakdown for those 29 veteran players:

• Offense (11):
  • QB (1) – Herbert
  • RB (2) – Hampton, Vidal
  • WR (4) – McConkey, Johnston, Harris, Lambert-Smith
  • TE (1) – Gadsden
  • OL (3) – OT Alt, OT Slater, C Biadasz
• Defense (16):
  • Edge (2) – Tuipulotu, Kennard
  • IDL (3) – Tart, Campbell, Eboigbe
  • LB (4) – Henley, Colson, Dye, Wax
  • CB (4) – Jackson, Still, Hart, Reed
  • S (3) – James, Molden, Mickens
• Special Teams (2):
  • PK (1) – Dicker
  • P (1) – Scott

Let’s talk through the position groups.

Quarterback

Pretty straightforward. Herbert is QB1 and no QB2 is under contract. 2025 QB2 Lance is an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA). The team’s decision about Lance doesn’t matter a lot to me. If Herbert misses games, Lance is not likely to win games in his place, but there is no clear and obvious alternative who would without committing a lot more cap space to the position.

It is worth noting that, while Lance was put into some challenging situations when he played in 2025, he played badly. Per PFF, 57 QBs had at least 50 dropbacks this season (Lance had 70). Lance’s PFF offense grade (36.0) ranks #55 in that group. That said, I think it is possible McDaniel can get better play from Lance than Roman did, and it seems like a certainty that any snaps he would take in 2026 would be behind much better OL play, which would also help him.

My main priority here is for the team to have a veteran minimum salary player at QB2, and I don’t think Uiagalelei is the answer. Spotrac shows Lance’s market value as $1,433,191. I’m going to assume they sign him to a one-year contract for that amount.

Also, in case there was any question about rostering a QB3, the team should not do that. They can carry a third QB on the practice squad if they feel that is important.

Runningback

Hampton is obviously RB1. He showed a lot of potential this season and hopefully will be even better in 2026 with better health for him and the OL and in McDaniel’s offense.

As expected, the Chargers have re-signed Vidal for 2026. He was a pleasant surprise last season and is fine as RB2.

I don’t think the team should or will re-sign Harris after his Achilles injury. That signing worked out terribly for the Chargers, and they should move on.

I expect the team will re-sign UFA Haskins again. He just turned 26 and played for Harbaugh at Michigan. More importantly, he had the second highest PFF special teams grade (80.5) among 65 graded Chargers special teams players, after having the 8^th best Chargers special teams grade (70.6) and playing the 4^th highest number of special teams snaps on the team in 2024. He is a “core four” special teams player, playing on both return units and both coverage units. Spotrac shows his market value as $1,430,001. I’m going to assume they sign him to a one-year contract for that amount.

Under McDaniel, I expect the team to carry 4 RBs, especially given Haskins would be on the roster primarily for special teams, not offense. I am going to project the team to sign Kenneth Gainwell. Yesterday, Daniel Popper posted an article on the players he views as the best free agent fits for the Chargers, and Gainwell is the only RB in his list. He wrote:

I think the Chargers will be looking to add a third running back to this mix in free agency. Gainwell is an excellent receiver who can threaten from multiple alignments in the passing game. He would bring a different flavor to the Chargers’ running back room. McDaniel could use Gainwell’s skill set creatively.

PFF identifies Gainwell as its #10 free agent RB with this summary:

Gainwell stepped into a larger-than-expected role for Pittsburgh in 2025, producing a career-high 1,023 scrimmage yards while earning a 72.6 overall PFF grade, his best mark since 2021. The former Eagle averaged 3.13 yards after contact as a runner and was efficient as a receiver, averaging 1.44 yards per route run with just three drops. At 26, Gainwell could be positioned to pursue a more consistent role after his breakout season.

Gainwell seems like a player who could challenge Vidal for RB2 and would insure the Chargers against another injury to Hampton, in which case the Chargers would have two capable players to man the position. 

PFF projects him to get a 2 year contract for $4M APY with $4M guaranteed. Spotrac shows his market value as a 2 year contract for APY just under $3M. I’m going to assume they sign him for PFF’s projection to be conservative. I will assume that means a $3M cap hit in 2026.

These moves should take RB out of play for the draft, which is a good thing.

Fullback

In my previous offseason roster post, I assumed Matlock would stay on as FB. My perception is that Harbaugh likes him in that role, and obviously Roman did. But he clearly is not a fit for McDaniel, which is why I included him on my exclusions list earlier in this article. I don’t see him making the team at IDL and expect he will be released at final roster cutdown and may end up on the practice squad.

Fortunately, there is an easy and obvious alternative, described perfectly by Kyle DeDiminicantanio in this article: Alec Ingold and the Simplest Signing of the Offseason. Regarding his next contract, Kyle wrote:

Ingold was the league’s highest-paid fullback at $4 million APY when he signed his extension in Miami. His next deal will likely come in below that, somewhere in the $2–3.5 million range, given the league-wide trend toward devaluing the position. Total commitment: $6–10 million over two or three years.

I will assume he signs a 3 year, $10M contract giving the team an out after two years if needed. I will assume that means a $2.5M cap hit in 2026.

Wide Receiver

The Chargers have five WRs under contract: McConkey, Johnston, Harris, Lambert-Smith, and Davis. I have written earlier in this article that I think Davis will be traded or released late before final roster cuts. He is more of a returner than offensive threat, so that really doesn’t affect the offensive rotation, and the team needs at least one more WR on offense.

In my previous offseason roster post, I wrote that, just like in 2025, that WR should be Keenan Allen. I still think the team should re-sign him. The discussion in the comments of that post led me to post this article: Should the Chargers Re-sign Keenan Allen? There is some good discussion there.

In my previous offseason roster post, I projected a 1 year, $7M contract. PFF projects he will get a 1 year, $5M contract. Spotrac shows his market value as $6,815,497. I’m going to assume they sign him to a one-year contract for that amount. I’m going to assume it includes no incentives tied to cumulative regular season statistics. 😉

I’m not done, though. Allen is a complementary player at this point, and the team may choose to reduce his regular season snaps to keep him fresh for the playoffs. I am going to project the Chargers to make another move at WR to push their chips in on McDaniel’s offense this season, realizing he might be gone after 2026. They need another deep threat, and I’m going to project the Chargers will sign Rashid Shaheed, who is PFF’s #6 free agent WR.

Some data from Shaheed’s career:

• 156 receptions on 244 targets (63.9%) for 2,321 receiving yards (14.9 YPR, 1.72 Y/RR, 4.1 YAC/REC) and 12 receiving TDs and 2 drops (yes, just 2)
• 30 rushing attempts for 214 yards (7.1 ypc) and 1 rushing TD, with 7 runs of 10+ yards and 3 of 15+
• Played with these QBs: Carr (20 games), Darnold (12 games), Dalton (12 games), Rattler (9 games), Shough (1 game)… Herbert is better than all of them, and only Darnold last year is even close
• PFF receiving grades by distance:
  • 2022: short 91.5; medium 93.5; deep 99.9
  • 2023: short 84.5; medium 91.4; deep 99.9
  • 2024: short 79.8; medium 90.6; deep 91.8
  • 2025: short 89.5; medium 96.4; deep 95.0

In addition, the Chargers need a punt returner if Davis is not going to make the final roster. And it wouldn’t hurt to improve their kick returns, either.

Per PFF, 95 returners had at least 10 combined punt and kick returns in 2025. Shaheed:

• Return grade (86.3) ranked tied for #4.
• Kick return grade (76.7) ranked #13.
• Punt return grade (81.8) ranked #5.
• Kick return average (32.3) ranked tied for #3.
• Punt return average (14.2) ranked #5.
• Return TDs (3) — 2 kick return TDs, and 1 punt return TD — ranked #1.
• He had 0 muffs.

PFF projects Shaheed’s contract at 3 years, $14M APY with $24M guaranteed. Spotrac projects 3 years, $42,380,592 ($14,126,864 APY). I will go with Spotrac’s projection and assume a 2026 cap hit of $10M.

Johnston is eligible to have his 5^th year option exercised this offseason, but that would be at a projected 2027 cost of $18M. With all of the other cap consuming moves discussed in this post, I think the Chargers could spend that cap space more wisely. I think they will let him play out his rookie contract in 2026 and then let him walk, hoping he will contribute positively to the comp pick formula.

These moves should take WR out of play for the draft, which is a good thing.

Tight End

Gadsden is the only TE under contract for 2026 I expect to make the final roater. Gadsden had a very strong rookie season and looks like a high potential impact player in 2026 and beyond.

In my previous offseason roster post, I assumed Dissly and Fisk would be back, but I think the move from Roman to McDaniel changes that for both players.

Although Gadsden looked very good at times, it is hard for me to assume he is ready to be the TE1. So I think the team will sign Jonnu Smith, who is PFF’s #8 free agent TE. This will be Smith’s 6th team in 7 seasons, but he had his career best season in McDaniel’s offense in 2024, with 88 receptions for 884 yards and 8 TDs on 111 targets that season. It is also true that, because he was released, signing him does not affect the comp pick formula.

PFF projects Smith to get a 1 year, $2.5M contract, but Spotrac projects 2 years at $14,605,508. I will go with Spotrac’s projection to be conservative and assume a 2026 cap hit of $6M.

This still leaves the Chargers in need of a TE strong at run blocking. In Popper’s article on free agent fits that I linked earlier, he identified TE Charlie Kolar as a fit. He wrote: 

After moving on from Dissly, the Chargers need to add some blocking to their tight end room. I think they will be prioritizing athleticism at this position within McDaniel’s scheme. That will be a deviation from some of the bigger-bodied blockers the Chargers rostered at tight end in previous offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s system. I am very high on Kolar. He is a dominant run blocker with outstanding movement skills. I also think he has untapped potential as a pass catcher.

Kolar is PFF’s #8 free agent TE. They wrote this about him:

Working as the Ravens’ third tight end, Kolar still captured eyes with his 2025 performance. Kolar was sound as a run-blocker, ranking eighth among qualified tight ends with a 71.5 mark in that department. Even when called upon as a receiver, he sported a 75.0 PFF receiving grade. NFL teams always covet blocking-oriented tight ends, which means that the 26-year-old Kolar could find a nice raise this spring.

He is 26 and has a connection to the Ravens when Hortiz was there. PFF projects him to get a 1 year contract for $1.75M. Spotrac projects he will get a 1 year, $1,664,841 contract. I’ll go with PFF’s projection to be conservative.

That should complete the TE room and take TE out of play for the draft, which is a good thing. 

Offensive Line

IMO there are only 3 OL on the current active roster who are worthy of making the final roster, making this position group the biggest offseason priority. They need at least six more players in this group. I suppose the team could choose to keep Taylor or Cleveland as its 9th OL, but I hope not, and I’m going to assume they won’t.

OT Slater and OT Alt are both under contract and both coming off injury. I think the team should install Alt as the long-term LT and move Slater to RT, since LT is more important for a right handed QB and Slater is coming off the more serious injury. I’m not confident the Chargers will do that, but, fortunately, that doesn’t matter for purposes of this post.

In my previous offseason roster post, I assumed the team would re-sign Zion, even though I projected it would require a 4 year, $18M APY contract to do so. Now it looks like it will take more, and the move from Roman to McDaniel makes this less desirable. McDaniel has shown he can get good quality play out of lower paid IOL players, which should mean Zion will walk and hopefully contribute positively to the comp pick formula.

Having signed C Biadasz (whose name I am going to insist on pronouncing “bad ass”), they need two starting guards, a backup center, a backup swing guard, a backup swing tackle, and a 9th OL. For my plan in this post, I’m going to sign two veteran starting guards, draft 2 depth players, and sign two veteran backups.

In Popper’s article on free agent fits that I linked earlier, he identified RG Alijah Vera-Tucker as a fit. He wrote: 

Vera-Tucker has the potential to be one of the best value signings of this free-agency period. When he is on the field, he is an above-average starter at right guard. However, he has suffered three season-ending injuries in his five NFL seasons, including a torn triceps last season. Vera-Tucker’s athleticism would fit very well into McDaniel’s scheme. The Chargers would need to have a contingency plan at right guard if they sign Vera-Tucker. That contingency could come in the draft.

That is exactly my plan, to draft a contingency plan. More on that shortly.

PFF ranks AVT as its #3 free agent guard. They wrote this about him:

A torn triceps closed the curtains on Vera-Tucker’s 2025 campaign before it began — the third season-ending injury of his young career. He has still established himself as a promising guard, earning three straight season-long 70.0-plus PFF overall grades and allowing the fourth-lowest pressure rate (2.8%) among guards in 2024.

He is just 26, turning 27 in June. PFF projects that he will get a 4 year contract with $17.5 APY and $45M guaranteed. Spotrac projects he will get 4 years, $51,339,204 ($12,834,801 APY). Big difference there, but we also know the guard market exploded last offseason. That combined with the California tax premium (posted about by good buddy KevDiego in this forum) makes me feel I need to go with PFF’s projection to be conservative. I will assume a 2026 cap hit of $10M.

On the left side, I am going to project the Chargers to sign Isaac Seumalo, PFF’s #1 free agent guard. PFF wrote this about him:

Seumalo has been one of the most consistent offensive linemen over the past four seasons, posting PFF grades between 66.3 and 73.9 during that span. This past season, he ranked seventh among guards in PFF pass-blocking grade (76.4) and 27th in run-blocking grade (67.1).

Popper also highlighted Seumalo in his article on free agent fits that I linked earlier. He wrote:

Johnson is going to have a robust market in free agency, and the Chargers could end up pivoting at left guard because of the price point. David Edwards is another younger option, but his market could end up in the same range as Johnson’s. Among other left guards, Seumalo is my favorite fit. He has a checkered injury history and is entering his age-32 season. But he will be cheaper. And when he is on the field, Seumalo is a polished technician who can provide stability at either guard spot.

He is 32, which should hold his price down a bit. PFF projects him to get a 1 year, $8M contract. However, Spotrac projects 3 years, $28,818,900 ($9,606,300 APY). I’m going to assume the Chargers sign him to a contract with the Spotrac terms, but backloaded with an out for the team after both years 1 and 2. I think they can guarantee a reasonable signing bonus (e.g., $6M) and the year 1 salary. For that reason, I’m going to assume a 2026 cap hit of $9M to make the guarantee a bit stronger while retaining the outs.

In his mock draft published on February 20, Popper drafted G Chase Bisontis from Texas A&M at #55. In a mock draft on March 4, Dane Brugler also projected the Chargers to draft Bisontis at #55. As of February 10, Brugler had Bisontis at #43 and #2 guard on his big board. Brugler wrote this about him:

Bisontis offers a well-rounded skill set — athleticism, strength and the ability to create movement. The key questions center around his position flexibility and blocking leverage, but his contact balance and consistency point to him being a successful pro, sooner than later.

As of this writing, the NFL Mock Draft Database had Bisontis ranked #45 and #3 IOL player on its consensus big board. I know this is a big investment if the team also invests in both Vera-Tucker and Seumalo, but I’m going to project this, anyway. This is the team building a succession plan and injury contingency for its guards.

In that same mock draft linked above, Popper drafted C Jake Slaughter from Florida at #86. I’m rolling with this. Slaughter is generally regarded as the top center in the class. In this scenario, he can learn behind Biadasz for 2-3 years before hopefully being ready to step in.

I will continue the trend of drafting the trenches in the 4th round, drafting T Austin Barber, Slaughter’s teammate at Florida. He is ranked #117 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board, and the Chargers’ pick is #123, but I’m going to assume the draft breaks the Chargers’ way here and they get him there. The scouting report in that NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board opens with this:

Barber is a well-built offensive tackle prospect who is a smooth mover in all facets. He fits best in a zone-blocking scheme. His low, wide pre-snap stance shows off his natural flexibility, and his technique gives him consistent pad-level advantages. He shows effective technique as a run blocker with hand placement and leg drive, but he could stand to get stronger in that and other areas. On a similar note, he must be able to maintain his blocks longer. Barber plays like a bouncer guarding the club door: violent, aggressive, and utterly unrelenting. His hands are weapons, striking defenders with precision and power. The Gators’ left tackle has developed into one of the most consistent SEC linemen, and his strength base is tremendous.

I will take that for McDaniels’ scheme. Maybe not as a rookie, but the plan would be to develop him into the swing tackle.

That leaves one more spot for a veteran. Given that both Alt and Slater are coming off injuries and my rookie tackle is a 4th round pick, I think it would be best if it was a tackle. I’m going to go with re-signing Penning. Consider the PFF grades for the Chargers OL players last season:

• Alt 79.0
• Penning 60.4
• Salyer 59.9
• Zion 56.5
• Hart 50.2
• Pipkins 49.9
• Bozeman 49.8
• James 46.6
• Sarell 43.0
• Becton 37.1
• Deculus 36.5
• Taylor 34.3

That is an absolutely terrible group other than Alt. In retrospect, it is hard to believe the Chargers won 11 games with that OL performance. But Penning was the best of the lot after Alt. I wrote about Zion earlier. Thankfully, Bozeman retired and Becton was released. There is really no reason to consider bringing any of the others back other than Penning. With Roman, Salyer might have been a consideration, but not in McDaniel’s scheme. Penning actually has athleticism that might enable him to perform better in this offense. So he is my choice.

Spotrac projects he will get a 3 year, $29,618,853 contract ($9,872,951 APY), but I refuse to believe that. PFF does not list him within its top 393 free agents, which includes 25 OTs. I am going to assume he gets a 1 year contract for $2.5M. Interested in comments on this if anyone feels I am way too low.

If healthy, this will be the best OL in the NFL in 2026. Furthermore, unlike prior offseasons, this approach has set the Chargers up much better for the future of the OL. Given the Chargers’ focus on having an offensive line centric approach, this makes sense. And Justin Herbert deserves it!

Edge

The team has only three Edge players under contract for 2026: Tuli, Kennard, and Dupree. I already noted that I expect Dupree to be a cap casualty, so I will ignore him from this point forward.

This could be an alarming situation, but I don’t think it is as bad as that sounds, since I am optimistic they will re-sign Mack and Oweh.

I expect the team to sign Mack to another one-year contract. Spotrac projects he will get a 1 year, $18,408,954 contract. PFF has him as its #6 free agent Edge player and projects he will get a 1 year, fully guaranteed contract for $14M. In my previous offseason roster post, I projected that he would get a raise and a 1 year contract for $20M. I’m going to go with Spotrac’s projection here. 

I expect the team to sign Oweh to a multi-year contract. He is going to get paid. In my previous offseason roster post, I guessed $15M per year on average, but stated that I could be off base, and I obviously was.

PFF has Oweh as its #2 Edge free agent and projects he will get a 4 year contract for $19.25M APY with $40M guaranteed. Spotrac projects 3 years, $57,972,261 ($19,324,087 APY). Very close projections. I’m going to bump it to $22M APY, and assume the Chargers will give him that over 4 years, with appropriate outs for the team. I will assume a 2026 cap hit of $15M. 

Tuli is eligible for a contract extension this offseason, and I think the Chargers will give it to him. He led the team with 75 pressures, and the next highest total was 42 (Mack); Tuli led the team with 14 sacks, and the next highest total was 11(Oweh); Tuli was tied with Derwin for first on the team with 34 stops. And he just turned 23 years old in September! He is not close to his prime yet.

I think Tuli will get more than Oweh, guessing $23M per year. I think they could give him four years with an appropriate out after three. That would mean he would be under contract for 5 years for ~98M. That means they should be able to hold his 2026 cap hit down a bit, but I’m still guessing it will jump to $11M. Given his PPE raise already pushed his cap hit above $6M, this isn’t too bad.

These moves should take Edge out of play for the draft, which is a good thing.

Interior Defensive Line (IDL)

The team has only three IDL players under contract: Tart, Eboigbe, and Caldwell. This is a solid core group, but the team needs at least three more on the final roster.

I expected the team to re-sign Tart. He was a bit more expensive than I projected in my previous offseason roster post, but he is worth it. 

I expect the team will attempt to re-sign Hand. He played the third highest number of defensive snaps among the Chargers IDL players, despite missing four games while on IR. He is PFF’s #10 IDL free agent, and they project him to get a 1 year, $2.5M contract. Spotrac projects him to get a 1 year contract for $3,943,156. I will go with Spotrac’s projection to be conservative.

I’m also going to project the team will use its first round draft pick on IDL Caleb Banks from Florida (the 3rd Gator I have proposed to draft!). Brugler ranked him #24 on his big board on February 10, but that was before Banks posted a 9.84 relative athletic score, which ranked #34 out of 2,046 IDL players since 1987. The Guilty As Charged podcast has stated that the Chargers are very high on Banks, so I’m going to assume he makes it to #22 and they draft him.

In Popper’s mock draft article I linked earlier, he proposed to draft IDL Zxavian Harris from Mississippi at #203. I’m going to go with that at pick 204.

Linebacker

The Chargers have four linebackers under contract for 2026: Henley, Colson, Dye, and Wax. They all seem like locks for the final roster. IMO they need one more, primarily for special teams but who can play LB in a pinch.

I think Perryman has been a fine player for them, but IMO the time has come to let him walk (again).

It would make a lot of sense to re-sign Del’Shawn Phillips, though. He finished 3rd in the league with 18 special teams tackles. I assume they will re-sign him to a one year contract at veteran minimum salary, which for him would be for $1.215M.

Cornerback

The team is in good shape with Jackson, Still, Hart, and Reed under contract for 2026. They need two more CBs for the final roster, assuming at least one is a primary special teams player. They need more for camp, but I think just two more for the final roster.

I think the team will likely re-sign St-Juste. He has played well – out of 34 Chargers players graded by PFF on defense, St-Juste’s grade (76.3) ranked #3, and his coverage grade (77.8) also ranked #3. He is not in PFF’s top 25 free agent CBs, which could help to keep his price down. Spotrac projects he will get a 1 year contract for $1,736, 049. I will assume the Chargers sign him for that.

I also think the team will want to re-sign Leonard, primarily for special teams. He was on IR for the first nine games and returned in week 10. The special teams unit had its five best PFF grades of the season in the six games after the bye, and Leonard contributed to that. I assume they will re-sign him to a one year contract at veteran minimum salary, which for him would be for $1.215M.

Safety

The team is in good shape with James, Molden, and Mickens under contract for 2026. They need one more safety for the final roster, and I assume that will be Tony Jefferson.

In 2025, Jefferson had the 8^th highest PFF defense grade (70.8) on the Chargers, and he has played the 8^th highest number of defensive snaps. I assume he will again re-sign for the veteran minimum salary, which for him is $1.3M.

Although I have made the argument that it might be most beneficial to trade James, I expect the team will sign James to a contract extension this offseason. I’m fine with that. He is a great player, and it would certainly hurt the Chargers defense to lose him. Walking through this exercise has helped me to lean back towards keeping him being the right move. I’m going to assume they sign him to an extension that lowers his 2026 cap hit from $24.6M to $15M. I’m sure they could lower it more than that if they have a reason to clear more space, but I’m mindful of pushing too much into 2027 and beyond.

Placekicker

Thankfully, it’s Dicker. No change here.

Punter

It’s Scott. No change here.

Long Snapper

Harris is a UFA, and he is going to be 37 in April. That said, he is still very good at his role. His PFF special teams grade (69.4) ranked #9 on the team, and Harris’s stint on IR showed us what the other end of that spectrum looks like with Lovato’s grade (28.4) being the lowest on the entire team, not just special teams.

I think the Chargers will re-sign Harris if he is willing, so I assume that will happen. Last time he signed, it was for an average salary of $1.4M. This time, I assume he will sign a three-year contract with outs after both the first and second years. I assume his 2026 cap hit will be $1.5M.

Assumed Roster Core

I have assumed a final roster of 48 veteran players and 5 draft picks for 2026. Here they are, along with their current and projected 2026 cap hits from Over the Cap:

• Offense (25):
  • QB (2) – Herbert, Lance
  • RB (4) – Hampton, Vidal, Gainwell, Haskins
  • FB (1) – Ingold
  • WR (6) – McConkey, Shaheed, Harris, Allen, Johnston, Lambert-Smith
  • TE (3) – Smith, Gadsden, Kolar
  • OL (9) – starters: LT Alt, LG Seumalo, C Biadasz, RG Vera-Tucker, RT Slater; depth: G Bisontis (R), C Slaughter (R), T Barber (R), T Penning
• Defense (25):
  • Edge (4) – Oweh, Tuipulotu, Mack, Kennard
  • IDL (6) – Tart, Banks (R), Hand, Campbell, Eboigbe, Harris (R)
  • LB (5) – Henley, Colson, Dye, Wax, Phillips
  • CB (6) – Jackson, Still, Hart, Reed, St-Juste, Leonard
  • S (4) – James, Molden, Mickens, Jefferson
• Special Teams (3):
  • PK (1) – Dicker
  • P (1) – Scott
  • LS (1) – Harris

That is a championship roster given good health. That is top of NFL offensive groups: QB, OL, RB, WR, TE. That is top of NFL defensive groups: Edge, IDL, S. That is top of NFL special teams. The only areas of possible weakness are LB and CB, but I wouldn’t characterize either as being actually weak barring injuries.

The offense stands to be better by an order of magnitude. Like, we aren’t going to recognize this offense. In a good way.

Anyway, let’s work out functional cap space.

Practice Squad

Teams are allowed to carry 16 practice squad players, including 4 veteran players. They can carry a 17^th International Pathways Program player; I assume they will do so. Thus, I assume the Chargers will carry the full number of 17 players and will include 4 veteran players.

Non-veteran practice squad players will make $13,750 per regular season week on the squad. Over the 18 regular season weeks, that scales to $247.5K for the full season.

Veteran practice squad players will make between $18.35K and $22.85K per regular season week on the squad. Using the midpoint for 18 regular season weeks, that scales to $370.8K for the full season.

Do the math, and I’m projecting the practice squad to cost $4.7M against the 2026 cap.

Practice Squad Elevations

The CBA allows 2 practice squad players to be elevated every week. Those players get paid at NFL minimum salary level for each week they are elevated.

The Chargers elevated practice squad players a total of 29 times in the 2025 regular season. I will assume 30 2026 elevations for this projection, and I will assume 8 of the activations are veteran practice squad players to be somewhat conservative.

Do the math, and I’m projecting PS elevations to cost $1,007,700 against the 2026 cap.

In Season Injury Replacements

The team will also need to reserve some cap space for 2026 in season injury replacements. I don’t know for sure how the team thinks about this and plans for it, so let’s look at what happened in 2025.

• LT Slater missed 17 regular season games while on IR.
• LB Colson missed 17 regular season games while on IR.
• RB Harris missed 15 regular season games while on IR.
• OT Alt missed 9 regular season games while on IR.
• CB Leonard missed 9 regular season games while on IR.
• LS Harris missed 9 regular season games while on IR.
• RB Hampton missed 7 regular season games while on IR.
• TE Fisk missed 6 regular season games while on IR.
• IDL Ogbonnia missed 5 regular season games while on IR.
• Edge Mack missed 4 regular season games while on IR.
• IDL Hand missed 4 regular season games while on IR.
• LB Perryman missed 4 regular season games while on IR.
• RB Haskins missed 4 regular season games while on IR.

That is 110 games missed by players on IR who otherwise would have been on the active roster and thus had to be replaced. The equivalent of about 6.5 full player seasons.

I will assume the team will reserve $7M for injury replacements, but that is just a guess.

Trades

Hortiz has demonstrated that he will make trades at the end of preseason (e.g., Heinicke, Molden) and in season (e.g., Oweh). This illustrates why it is appropriate to reserve a budget for such trades, although it is also true that the team could typically clear some space if needed by restructuring a veteran contract of one of the higher cap space veterans.

I will assume the team will reserve $7M for end of preseason and/or in season trades. If no trades are made, this can rollover into 2027.

Dead Cap Money

Based on current 2026 dead cap money plus the dead cap money that will be incurred for releasing the players I identified, here is a current projection of 2026 dead cap money:

This will grow at final cuts.

Salary Cap Charges

Based on taking the actions I described above, this is what the salary cap charges look like:

Functional Cap Space

The team is in good shape from a cap standpoint, based on my assumptions:

So I am over by just over $1M. That is without the inevitable increase in dead money, without any players on the reserve lists, and without any adjustments that will be finalized at the start of the 2026 league year. However, I made conservative assumptions throughout. The team could lower cap hits in a number of contracts if needed/desired. They could also restructure Herbert if it came down to it. So there is no issue here.

Conclusion

Think about this for a minute. The Chargers are going to get Slater and Alt back and significantly upgrade the offensive coaching and OL coaching. On top of those things, they should (finally!) get a center upgrade, and perhaps a significant IDL upgrade. This was already a team that won 11 games. There is no other playoff team that will get this level of upgrade in the offseason. The media will presumably pick the Broncos and/or Chiefs to win the AFC West next season, but IMO the Chargers are the favorites as long as they don’t have similarly terrible injury luck next season. That means they should contend for the #1 seed in the AFC.

As it was last season, the opportunity is there for Hortiz, et al. to maintain the core of the current roster while augmenting with a couple premium free agents rather than shopping exclusively in the bargain bin. I hope to chooses to do it this time. IMO I showed a way to do it here.

Thoughts? I made a tremendous number of assumptions in this exercise, interested in what you all think of them.