Good afternoon StormCloud. We’re about five hours into the start of free agency, and there has already been a flurry of movement around the league.
I’m going to do my best to update this tracker as quickly as I can, but given my kiddo responsibilities it won’t be as timely as other sources, so please keep the chatter gong in the comment section.
What we are going to try to provide something that is a little unique. .. a cancelation chart that I’ll update periodically that might help us navigate how Joe might be approaching free agency.
Teair Tart resigns, up to $5.5M
The Chargers have to say goodbye to Poona Ford, but retain Teair Tart. Tart made plenty of flash plays last year and was definitely a player the Chargers benefit from bringing back.
Najee Harris sigs for 1 year, (up-to 9.25M)
This one was pretty perplexing. Najee was a fan favorite in Pittsburg, with fans loving his dedication and reliability. He’s a workhorse back, but performed at his best when working in a “Thunder and Lightning” running back committee. Harbaugh heavily recruit Najee when was a top prospect coming into college, so the Harbaugh ties continue.
The odd part of this signing was few pundits or fans saw the running back room as the cause of the running game being inconsistent in 2025. Unless a major overhaul is happening on the interior offensive line – with a scrap heap of players left over as the rest of the NFL has already plucked the big pieces of meat of the bone, the plan for protecting Justin Herbert and creating a physical presence up front is becoming cloudier and cloudier.
Bradley Bozeman extended
No official details yet other than it being a “multi-year deal,” but Bradley Bozeman has been extended by the Bolts.
Bozeman could be a great depth piece or competition across all three IOL spots, but hopefully this isn’t seen as a plug-and-play situation at center.
Projected Cancellation Chart
The two budgets fans typically consider when looking at free agency is “cash” and “cap.” However, a third budget that General Managers that prioritize comp picks might utilize is a “Cancellation Budget.” This is admittedly pure speculation on my part, but if Joe Hortiz follows this pattern this year, you can count on it being a a yearly expectation to follow this sort of model.
On the left, we have outgoing free agents. Projected departures and values are italicized. Confirmed signings are bolded. Comp rounds are left italicized until OverTheCap confirms the round to the best of their ability.
If Joe wants to continue averaging 2-3 compensatory picks a draft, he may assign budgets for himself in free agency. For example, going into this week, he may have assumed Asante Samuel and Poonah Ford may get 5th round comp pick APY’s, and only was considering signing one marquee name because of it. With Josh Palmer surprising everyone with his $13M APY contract, Joe may now have added flexibility to sign two decent contracts – perhaps at guard, center, IDL, or edge, while still retaining one 5th round pick in 2026.
The same could apply for the 6th round departures. If Teair Tart follows this trend of defensive lineman outperforming their projections and breaks into the 6th round bucket (around 5-8 or 9M) that might change Joe’s calculus as well.
We’ll keep this chart updated as it goes!
First Signing, Khalil Mack is BACK
This one was an absolute relief. Khalil Mack is back on a very reasonable $18M deal.
Donte Jackson signs for 2-years, $13M
Donte Jackson looks to be another shrewd signing by Joe. He’ll fall into the 6th round compensatory bucket, a bucket that the Bolts have plenty of outgoing FA’s that should provide some 6th round picks in 2026.
Jackson is the exact type of value-oriented cornerback signing I was hoping to see from Joe. While Jackson’s PFF grade was a below-average 49.5 last year, he’s held quarterbacks to a passer rating of 75.2 when targeted and came down with 5 interceptions on the season.
He rounds out a cornerback room that had two rookies break out as capable starters in 2024. They could still look to add here – perhaps in the slot, or by picking up a rookie in the draft – but this rounds out the cornerback room nicely. If there is anything 2024 taught us, it’s that Joe Hortiz and Jesse Minter know what they are looking for in their secondary acquisitions.
JK Dobbins is now dead to me.
FTB
Former teammate weighs in on Najee Harris. I know he’s not flashy but I think he fits the Harbaugh mold of tough, durable, and a hard worker. Now add Tuten in the draft for the speed element.
https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/cam_heyward_has_direct_message_for_steelers_fans_about_najee_harris/s1_17101_41924706?utm_source=mb&utm_medium=email&mb_edition=20250319&mb_loc=left_r
Updated incoming and outgoing FAs (3/15)
Outgoing FAs and cuts
BosaFultonFordNiemannPalmerEdwardsSmarttFehokoFox
Our FAs who do not appear to be coming back:
ASJHurstDobbinsChark
incoming FAs (not including our re-signs because they were here last year)
HarrisJacksonSt. JustMWillHandJonesPhillipsBecton
The re-signs are not included in the list because I want to compare last years team and the players lost in FA or cut with the new FAs signed.
Please let me know who I’m missing. My goal is not to duplicate KyleD’s great work on cancelling comp picks. I’m just trying to look at a very general level players going out and players coming in thru this FA period.
Still projecting Zion to start and draft a center….?
Brandon Scherrf still out there…estimated $6M/year. Would sure be nice to double dip here….
If I had to guess the OL for 2025:
LT: Slater
LG: Zion
C: Draft pick/FA (better not be Bozeman)
RG: Becton
RT: Alt
Swing T: Tyler McLellan – Looked dominant last pre-season before blowing out his knee. 6’8″, 355 LBs AND light feet. Would love to see what a jumbo package looks like with Becton, Alt and McLellan lined up on the right side
G/T: Salyer
G/C: Bozeman
G/T: Draft pick/FA or Pipkins
LT Slater
LG Zion
C Bozeman
RG Becton
RT Alt
Swing T Pipkins
Backup G/T Salyer
Backup G Rookie draft pick (Miles Frazier?)
Backup C Rookie draft pick (Jake Majors?)
I’m not advocating to keep Pipkins, but I’m guessing that at this point that is what the team will do due to their philosophy (remember Harbaugh saying he would have all tackles if he could). I also think they probably feel like their OL depth was not strong enough last season.
While his cap hit is expensive for a depth player, having Pipkins on the bench with Salyer definitely upgrades the OL depth. Both of them have a lot of starts at both at tackle and guard.
At this point, given they apparently are not going to spend all of their cap space, this isn’t the worst outcome IMO.
This is probably more realistic. More than anything, having Bozeman back at C is a major failure. In the film I watched, the guy rarely got beat physically. Where he lost was in setting the protections and picking up stunts. The center needs to be the leader of the OL. I think much of Zion’s struggles were a result of Bozeman being bad at at the mental aspect of his job.
I am super-excited about the Becton signing. I know there was a ton of clamoring for one of the big WR FAs. While it might have been fun to watch Herbert throw to Adams, this Chargers team needed to upgrade the OL and specifically RG and C. RG is done. Now they need to fix C.
Don’t sleep on McLellan. Dude is everything this team wants to be.
He played at Campbell (FCS) in college. Not great preparation for NFL competition. He did not play well in limited exposure to P5 college competition.
His RAS is terrible. Poor scores for everything but size — bench, vertical, broad, shuttle, 3-cone. So… strength poor, agility poor, explosion poor. Also, his arms are short. There is nothing to like there at all.
I don’t believe he is capable of stepping into a heavy snaps role in the event of injuries and performing at close to an acceptable level, and I don’t think the Chargers should keep him on the roster just to line him up occasionally at TE beside Alt in a jumbo package.
It would be great if he proves me wrong, but that would surprise me a lot.
Mekhi Becton is a Bolt!!! Finally an IOL signing!
People were talking like this wasn’t gonna happen. Fits our big boy line and hopefully continues his form. Also only 25. If he does well we can lock him down for a long time.
Good signing. He’s a maulers.
Hit the bench, Pipkins.
I was thinking about comp picks and decided to look at the Ravens’ comp picks over the past 5 seasons. I believe this is the list:
2024
4.35 (135) – traded with Morgan Moses to Jets for picks 113 and 218, and drafted WR Devontez Walker and QB Devin Leary
Jury is out on Walker
Leary is unlikely to ever amount to anything
2023
None
2022
3.36 (100) – traded with Marquis Brown to ARI for 1.23, then traded down to 1.25 plus pick 130, and drafted C Tyler Linderbaum and P Jordan Stout, respectively
4.34 (139) – TE Isaiah Likely, Coastal Carolina
4.36 (141) – CB Damarion Williams, Houston
2021
3.40 (104) – CB Brandon Stephens, SMU
5.40 (184) – FB Ben Mason, Michigan
2020
3.42 (106) – T Tyre Phillips
4.37 (143) – G Ben Bredeson, Michigan
That is 8 comp picks over the past 5 drafts. Turned into 3 really good or better players (bolded), although one of them was the result of a trade with the comp pick as an ancillary piece. That is a nice hit rate. It helps to justify the comp pick mindset, at least for organizations that tend to draft well.
The fact that 2 of these 8 picks were involved in trades also illustrates the trade flexibility that comes with accumulating comp picks.
All in all, I like the focus on this. I’m still somewhat concerned that focusing on this in an offseason with $90M+ in cap space to spend makes sense to the degree that it appears Hortiz focused on it.
FA strategy
Updated incoming and outgoing FAs
Outgoing FAs and cuts
BosaFultonFordNiemannPalmerEdwardsSmarttFehokoFox
Our FAs who do not appear to be coming back:
ASJHurstDobbinsChark
incoming FAs (not including our re-signs because they were here last year)
HarrisJacksonSt. JustMWillHandJonesPhillips
The re-signs are not included in the list because I want to compare last years team and the players lost in FA or cut with the new FAs signed.
Please let me know who I’m missing. My goal is not to duplicate KyleD’s great work on cancelling comp picks. I’m just trying to look at a very general level players going out and players coming in thru this FA period.
Fehoko, Hurst, Sarell (RFA), Rumph, Quarterman, Apple, Jefferson, and Maye.
Again, no comp picks coming with these guys, but the completist in me wanted to go look it up
Whoops. Forgot Jaimes and Mustipher.
Team signs LB Del’Shawn Phillips. Looks like a ST player. Don’t know terms or length of deal, but just taking a wild guess, I’m gonna say it’s a 1-year deal below the comp pick formula.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6202395/2025/03/14/chargers-free-agency-reset-defensive-line/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=12566676&source=dailyemail
https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1900281117909164331
https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1900525431188525320
I keep seeing RBs I’d be happy with in the 3rd/4th, as well as late round CBs that are intriguing to me.
Nothing at TE or Edge after the 3rd round.
Will be interesting to see if they sign a legitimate Guard before the draft…I think that may tip their hand. I can’t imagine they’re happy going into the season with the same OL as last season and if they wait until the 3rd or 4th round to draft IOL, then while they may get a good prospect, there’s no guarantee that guy will immediately be an upgrade over Pipkins/Salyer/Bozeman.
If they do make a guard signing before the draft, that probably leaves it more open at #22 to IDL, Edge or TE.
I still think they need a monster in the DT room though that’s currently lacking. I’ve just finished watching Kenneth Grant. I liked him but maybe not on the same level as some others. I saw him more as a later Day 1, early Day 2 guy, and I liked Derrick Harmon (Oregon) slightly better. Maybe I just prefer 3-techs though.
Here were my notes for Kenneth Grant:
21.3 yo, 6’4”, 331 pounds, 33 1/2” arms
Three seasons. 41 games. 8 sacks.
2023 National Champion
2024 Stats:
12 games, 3 sacks, 1 hit, 23 hurries (547 snaps)
83.7 Overall Grade
75.3 Pass Rush Grade
87.5 Run Defense Grade
9.4% Pass Rush Win Rate
7.9% Run-Stop Rate
5.9% Missed Tackle Rate (5.5% for Career)
2025 Combine:
22 Bench Press Reps (9th of 9)
Didn’t do other drills due to minor hamstring issue
Watched games v Ohio State (2023), Alabama (2023, Rose Bowl), Washington (2023, National Title Game), Illinois (2024), USC (2024), Boise State (2024), and Texas (2024)
Massive interior defender with surprisingly good movement skills and ability to play Nose or 3-Tech. Not really a pure two-gaper in his playing style. Surprisingly, plays more like a finesse player and I would have rather seen him show more as a “bulldozer”. Lacks a signature strength as a result. Good player though. Dominated v USC.
As a pass rusher:
First-step quickness belies size. Bendy enough to be used on loops, but he’s not difficult to evade for an agile QB. Fluid for a massive human though.
Strong hands to dislodge initial punch from OL. Second phase of pass rush is less impressive if he’s beaten early – struggles to counter and can get stuck to the block.
Can collapse the pocket with his bull rush. Not just a pocket pusher. Doesn’t finish plays as much as you’d like to see though. Core strength is a work in progress and can get knocked off balance.
Decent ball awareness. Can get his hands up to bat passes.
Doesn’t finish plays often. But stamina is impressive. Doesn’t fatigue over the course of the game like other big DTs. High-effort player.
As a run defender:
More often than not he holds his gap and force runs elsewhere.
Splash plays/TFLs are there on tape but only occasionally. Wins with a swim off the snap.
Lateral movement limitations are noticeable and his high frame/long arms lead to some difficulties taking on angle blocks or shaking off linemen in zone to tackle the RB. Not quite the run game disruptor I was expecting to see on tape. He can get moved especially by double teams.
Height hinders his ability to win the leverage battle consistently.
He’s no T’Vondre Sweat but will upgrade your Run Defense during his rookie contract.
Here’s a quick update on the cancellation chart with estimates on the APY’s, given the “up-to” verbiage.
Our comp picks are basically wiped out right now, but we’ll quickly restore back to 3-4 picks when Heinicke, Fox, ASJ, and Dobbins sign. Right now the cheap guys we’ve brought in are being cancelled out by our higher priced exits because we haven’t had lower, qualified departures yet.
Not sure Smartt will offset anyone, but he’s gone.
I think Minshew was a massive overpay last year and he won’t get near that deal again, probably looking in the 5-8M range max.
Hortiz swapped Taylor for Gardner would have been the ultimate dedication to company picks dictating everything
As it stands right now, we have a bunch of lower-value signings canceling out our 5th rounders (unless Mike’s base pay is below $3M).
I would think Heinicke would sign in the 6th round range, but would “save” one of our 5th rounders from being cancelled out from a 6th round signing.
Updated incoming and outgoing FAs
Outgoing FAs and cuts
BosaFultonFordNiemannPalmerEdwardsSmartt
Our FAs who do not appear to be coming back:
ASJHurstDobbinsChark
incoming FAs (not including our re-signs because they were here last year)
HarrisJacksonSt. JustMWillHandJones
The re-signs are not included in the list because I want to compare last years team and the players lost in FA or cut with the new FAs signed.
Please let me know who I’m missing. My goal is not to duplicate KyleD’s great work on cancelling comp picks. I’m just trying to look at a very general level players going out and players coming in thru this FA period.
Bosa is the only player that hasn’t really been replaced yet but he wasn’t the beast he used to be anyways. I assume his snaps will be replaced by either a rookie or there’s still some vet pass rushers out there that could be signed. Despite the nostalgia, I’m not sure that will end up being much of a downgrade overall. I expect this position group to end up similar to last year.
I don’t think Hand will be as good as Poona be he is serviceable but I think Jones could easily be better than Fox. Fox played a lot of snaps and was kind of mediocre last year. If they hit on a good rookie, I think this position group could be better overall, but that’s of course a big “IF”.
At this point, the biggest potential upgrade to come via free agency would be a guard.
Beyond that, any roster improvements will have to come from hitting on picks in the draft.
They will also need some of last year’s rookies (like Colston and Eboigbe) to step up and take on larger roles as well.
And now Naquan Jones signed, I think he kinda takes on Morgan Fox’s spot. Still room for a good rookie, but they have some depth now at least.
Hortiz goes dumpster diving again. Da’Shawn Hand signs for 1 year at $3.35 mill. Gotta hand it to Hortiz. He’s not going to f up his comp pick strategy.
1. There’s no guarantee that they will all meet or exceed their contracts. There’s bound to be years where more of those signings turn out to be Dissly and Chark than Ford and Dobbins.
2. You create an endless cycle of needs. Even with 10 draft picks, you are lucky to get 7 to make the team and even luckier to get more than 2 starters. Definitely not enough to replenish starters you have going out on 1 year deals or even the longer tenured players that are expiring.
The roster is starting to look like that now. It is essentially worse than it was before the new league year and we had 90M in cap space. If there is a bigger 3-4 year plan to continue to sign 1 year deals until you can get most of those holes filled with eventual longer contract draftees, I guess that’s one way to go. However, you would need to nail a high percentage of draft picks as starters/ rotational players and even have more luck there are prospects at need positions available to you in the draft.
Example: TE this year. As it stands we have zero pass catching TE on the roster, and there’s no guarantee we can get one in the draft.
It will be fascinating to see how the rest of the offseason plays out. Still a ton of work to do to even get the roster as good as it was last season.
Chargers just added DT D’Quan Hand on a cheap 1 year deal. He was a decent prospect coming out of Alabama. Drafted in 4th round by the Lions. Made an impact right away and was actually on the All-Rookie team his first season in 2018.
From 2019 – 2022 he bounced around and was plagued by injuries. Caught on with the Dolphins in 2023 and had two solid but unremarkable seasons with them.
I see him as a decent rotation piece, but not starting material. He’s not as talented of a player as Poona Ford and I wouldn’t expect that kind of impact. Poona was “cheap” last year for different reasons.
They still need to add at least 1 if not 2 players to the IDL group IMO.
Now the question becomes, do they add a TE and a G before the draft, and if so, who?
I suppose they could wait until later and look for post-draft signings, but that seems risky, ESPECIALLY at tight end.
it just occurred to me, this guy was on MIA when the team released Tart last training camp.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6199237/2025/03/13/chargers-free-agency-reset-mike-williams/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=12566676&source=dailyemail
I am reluctant to allow myself to believe we can count on Williams to return to his 2018-2023 performance levels and also stay on the field in 2025. I feel like that might be too good to be true.
Mike’s numbers 2018-2023 scale to 1027 receiving yards and 7 receiving TDs per 17 games, with 15.4 ypr. Imagine adding that to Ladd.
That said, he has chemistry with Herbert, and, as of right now, he is the best X WR on the team. If he takes a lot of X snaps, it means Johnston can play Z, which is a better fit for his game.
It is definitely a low risk, high upside signing. The more I think about it, the more I like it.
Their weakest spots on the depth chart right now are clearly the DL (including Edge), IOL, and TE.
This only reinforces my comment yesterday that I expect to see a trench heavy draft and I’d be surprised if they don’t take a TE or RB at some point.
I’m not necessarily saying they’ll ignore the other position groups, but the needle is certainly pointing at trenches and luckily this year there are a decent number of DL and IOL prospects. I’m guessing they already have a cluster at those positions they’d be happy to draft.
The one-year contracts certainly provide flexibility and, ultimately, loads of cap room in a variety of ways. Potential comp picks don’t hurt either.
I like the signing. Herbert knows how to send TDs to Mike and he is probably just as good as he ever was, which was pretty nice. He was also so cheap. I’ll bet they are staring down the numbers with Keenan and this was a move to emphasize their position. Keenan returning would make this group quite formidable.
Interesting with the one year contracts to Mike and Najee. They’ll likely cancel out comp picks for 2026 but, if they have decent years and then move along, there’s a good chance they’ll count for comp picks in 2027. My guess is this isn’t news to Hortiz.
In these desperate times, I was hoping for something like this. Hope it’s a 1-year deal around $5-6 mill.
Who had Mike Williams in free agent bingo?
If QJ and BMW could play consistently at their best—and they’re both damn good at their best—this would be a top notch receiver room. But those two guys are so reliably inconsistent that it’s hard to get too excited.
I’ll just leave this here…
https://twitter.com/updatecardinals/status/1740820287866978310
😂
I had to lookup St. Juste. I thought maybe he was the Patron Saint of Frugality….
So let’s review where we are near the end of day 3 of FA:
Outgoing FAs and cuts
BosaFultonFordNiemannPalmerEdwards
Our FAs who do not appear to be coming back:
ASJHurstDobbinsCharkincoming FAs (not including our re-signs because they were here last year)
HarrisJacksonSt. Just
The re-signs are not included in the list because I want to compare last years team and the players lost in FA or cut with the new FAs signed.
Please let me know who I’m missing. My goal is not to duplicate KyleD’s great work on cancelling comp picks. I’m just trying to look at a very general level players going out and players coming in thru this FA period.
It’s funny that the perceived inaction is that the FO didn’t want to overpay, but there is a certain amount of $$ you must spend each year. So could it could come to pass that we might need to hand out a bunch of 1 year small overpays just to hit the cap floor? I mean after all we need to get to 90 players somehow.
Who cares it’s the same end result
2. The players leave after one year creating yet another roster hole
3. Can’t spend big in FA with so many holes
4. Sign a bunch of one year deals
I mean it’s totally possible they have a 3-4 year roster build plan, but if that were the case, why were they so intent to create such cap space this year? If the main goal is comp picks keeping Bosa would have not created as big a roster hole at Edge and probably would have garnered a 4th Rd comp pick for him. It just doesn’t seem like this current approach to FA required such an aggressive attempt at cap space.
A few guys that might be nice to add to the team that should now be in consideration. Heck it would be nice to get all these guys. I assume we still have the CAP space.
C-Myers (he and Boze can battle it out)
G-Becton, Jenkins
DT-Campbell (old but his stats always reflect a guy who can play)
Edge-Smith
WR-Moore and Allen
RB-Dobbins
Then draft Best Available on your board hope one of the top TE is available.
Troy Dye back is a good signing. Good depth and ST player but the real big news
STRIKE UP THE BAND REAGOR IS BACK BABY!!!!
Oh sweet baby Jesus, are we cooked? 🤣🤣🤣
I honestly wonder if Neimann and Dye were given the same offer (a deal just under compensatory value, with potential upside if they perform) and encouraged to explore the market.
Neimann got offer just above the threshold into 7th round compensation value, is allowed to leave.
Dye re-signs for just under.
Pure speculation, but follows a pattern.
Engram is certainly the best one still available, unless Mark Andrews is let go.
I don’t understand why so many people think the Ravens are waiting until the NLY to cut him (this isn’t meant to single anyone out here, this take is everywhere online).
The only advantage to waiting until the NLY to cut a player is you can designate the release as a post-June cut, which prevents future bonus allocations from accelerating to your current cap sheet, pushing those accelerations/dead cap into the following year. This is relevant for players with more than one year left on their contract, or players that have void years that have pushed cap into future years.
Andrews has neither, just a straight-up dead cap number of 6M in 2025, so there’s no benefit to waiting to cut him now vs cutting him weeks ago. It’d also be considered a dick move by the organization to not give him a head start in signing somewhere by dumping him a couple weeks ago – dropping him after the first wave of free agency has already commenced is not a real cool move for a franchise guy like Andrews (see how Bosa, Gus, etc were treated).
The Ravens may let him play put this year, extend him, restructure him so they can get a comp pick for him next year – or, if they really just want to move forward with Likely, they’ll trade him. I just see “release” as being thr last option.
With his 2025 salary being 11M for his new team if traded, I struggle to see how a team in the NFL wouldn’t trade for that contract. He seemed “off” post-car accident in the first half of the year, but he ended on a 6 touchdown in 6 games heater, and 11 total TDs on the season.
Maybe I’m off on this, but I would be absolutely shocked if he were cut outright.
Goedert has been rumored to be on the trade block, I’ve seen multiple reports from Philly insiders and Philly fans complaining that he’s on the block.
But I’m with you – I think Goedert’s dead cap makes it difficult. The only explanation I can provide for why they would trade him instead of cut him is they get so outside-the-box with their cap management and void years, they may be willing to take his 23M dead cap hit (which would net a loss of 9M since his savings would be about $14M), because they either:
My partner Josh Q did an amazing research piece on how how teams seem to value draft picks here. In he, he compiled tons of historical data to create a draft value chart based on financial values instead of “points” like all the current models use. In doing so, he’s able to use it to make sense of trades that involve players for picks.
Click the link to read the “how” if you’d like, but his research concluded that a 4th round pick was valued at $21.83M-15.37M in today’s numbers (spread across 4 years).
I’ll work on an article that explains how Roseman may elect to trade Goedert and eat the cap.
@evolz3737
Here’s what I have Erick. Here’s a link to an article I’m posting to our Substack that covers why Howie might do it, and what the valuation might be.
Here’s the process we went through to come up with the chart. It’s a pretty awesome read… Josh completely led the way on it, I was just a voice in his ear. The guy is brilliant with this stuff. It covers how to transition player values to draft capital.
Here’s a copy of the chart, but it may be behind a paywall. I believe the other link isn’t.
I understand your point about trade vs. release, and I think the Chargers should explore what it would take.
Now, “absolutely shocked” if he were cut outright might be a little strong. As you pointed out, it has been discussed extensively in the media, so I don’t think that should shock anyone if it actually happened.
Best of luck to him there. Pretty good spot for where he’s at.
Bosa to the Bills $13M
Compensatory picks for 2025 announced:
6th round: 209, 214
7th round: 255
I hope the team hits on a dart throw.
Evan Engram visiting… https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/evan-engram-visits-the-chargers
If he signs with the Broncos I’m just gonna turn off my phone and read a self-help book.
“If he signs with the Broncos I’m just gonna turn off my phone and read a self-help book.”
Same but for a much different reason. This place is starting to feel like a BFTB game day thread.
Didn’t want Hopkins (who can’t get open anymore) anyway.
One of Keenan, Kupp, or Amari will come to us at a good price.
I wanted Devante, but $46M is a lot for two years and Keenan is nearly as good, will be half the price.
Gotta agree. Of all the WRs, I was hoping for Devante. It would have made us, potentially, formidable in the passing game once again. It was a risk I wish they would have made, but for one reason or another, it didn’t come to pass. Now we just have to make do.
Despite it not being a “fit” with Ladd on board in the slot, I hope to see Keenan back at a good price. Amari is intriguing as well.
LT shows up to Hortiz’s office in 2025 and in his prime and says I’ll sign for 2 years, $10 mill per. Hortiz, sitting on $90 mill cap space, tells LT he’ll give him 1year, $5 million base, and $4 million in incentives.
Sorry guys, but I’m really frustrated right now. Second day and all quiet on the homefront. Someone joked Hortiz cooked more with negative cap space last year than with $90 million space this year.
@evolz3737
Perhaps the Spanos family has much to do about this. I’m not sure but if they don’t spend the money does it matter to them? NFL is so big and so much money is made win or lose. Something just doesn’t appear right in this situation. If they don’t spend $50M is that money that is in the owners pocket vs. product on the field? Perhaps someone here can explain.
And the Ravens signing Hopkins….geez maybe Jim can get tips from John.
They have to spent 89% of the cap on a 4 year rolling average, and since the cap rolls over year to year, there’s not a reason to pocket cash the way baseball teams do.
This just feels more like Hortiz’s management decisions, where he valued players at, etc.
Painful yet best description of the day
I’ll update the post this afternoon – but just a quick update:
Najee Harris’ deal has a base of $5.25M, with 4M available in performance bonuses. Without knowing exactly what those bonuses are, it’s hard to say how attainable they are, but we’ll likely list $5.25M as his cancelation value until it actually gets calculated next offseason.
Kristian Fulton just signed a 2-Yr, 20M deal with the Chiefs.
We are hovering around 4 picks in the 5th comp round next year, and some picks.
So far, these early overpays have really, really benefitted our compensatory formula.
It’s not the path I would have preferred, but it’s very interesting. I’m not going to be frustrated with Hortiz on Day 2 of free agency… I’m going to assume he’s got a plan in place and is comfortable not getting caught in these crazy bidding wars.
That could very well be the case, but as long as he’s OK with retaining our guys, I’m not going to complain too much.
My biggest concern though is the disparity between our offensive and defensive hit-rates on those one-year deals. Every defensive prove-it contract we gave earned the player a HEAVY bonus, outside of TJ who honestly was a “win” just by coming out of retirement and playing well when needed.
Totally different story on offense, where only JK Dobbins appeared to be a value signing, and Bozeman who received an extension but appears better suited as an upgrade over Will Clapp than the heir to Corey Linsley, if you catch my drift.
I’m not happy, but I’m panicking yet – I honestly do trust in their ability to build for the draft, and if they see FA as an exercise in throwing money down the drain, so be it. I’d prefer that over Tom Telesco spending on 2-4 CFA’s every season that dont finish their contract, never retaining players drafted in Day 3, and lack of trading/smart moves.
Perhaps he and Harbaugh are looking more in the draft and develop direction? And, as you’ve said a few times, see 2026 as the realistic SB push year? Which may mean they want money next year for that premium player or 2 to put them over the top.
I’m just spitballing here. Frankly, we all are since we’re not in the discussions.
I posted the same though on X, that he’ll probably hit around half of the incentives, but it should still keep him out of the 5th round bucket at 7.5M.
It doesnt actually matter if they are LTBE or NLTBE (I believe you get cap back on LTBE’d bonuses that arent met) as the initial cap figures will just be placeholders until next year. But yes, his final cancelation number will reflect how much he ends up earning on his deal after bonuses are adjusted.
Will Fries 5/88M shows why we haven’t gone hard after IOL at the price they’re getting paid.
We know this about the draft:
Edge is deep, although the strong players may be gone by mid to end of 2nd round
IDL is deep
RB is deep
CB is good at the top
At TE, there are two great prospects who may not make it to the Chargers’ first pick and after that the class is not the greatest
WR is mediocre at best, at least relative to recent classes
G is mediocre to weak
C is weak
These are all needs for the Chargers. What I expected them to do is use their immense amount of cap space to solve a couple of these positions before the draft.
So what have they done?
Mack doesn’t solve for Edge, he just maintains status quo; there is still a need to replace Joey.
Tart doesn’t solve for IDL, he just maintains status quo; still need 2 starters to replace Ford and ideally upgrade Fox.
Harris doesn’t solve RB, he just apparently replaces one of Dobbins/Edwards. Still need another player, presumably a rookie.
Bozeman obviously doesn’t solve center, though I agree with signing him.
Does Jackson solve the need at CB to the extent that the Chargers should not consider drafting CB barring unexpected value? I doubt it.
So out of all of these positions of need, have they taken any off the board for the draft? Not so far. To this point, it does not feel like a properly complementary strategy for cap space and draft picks. That is what makes it feel disappointing so far.
Ready for Joe to wow me with his strategy tomorrow.
I agree with signing Bozeman but all we know about it is it was multi-year. I’m assuming it’s back-up money, but if it’s starter money I’ll be pissed off.
Guard – I haven’t got to IOL tape yet but I’ve heard this class has good IOL depth and some of the best tackle prospects may project better as IOL. That could push the class to “Good” but we shall see. Same goes for Center with some of the Tackle/Guard prospects beign reviewed as potential Centers (eg, Will Campbell/Grey Zabel)
I would be happy if the Chargers drafted Zabel in the 2nd, but I don’t think he will make it there. Beyond him, i admittedly don’t know much about later C prospects beyond my impression that they aren’t good.
I suspect there are some guard prospects who would be fine, but the Edge/IDL (and TE/WR?) situation makes it seem like drafting a guard wouldn’t occur before day 3. This is a great reason for the Chargers to go out and sign 1-2 starting caliber guards ASAP.
My prediction is we manage to land Kevin Zeitler and Patrick Mekari. Both have Baltimore connections and Hortiz so far has shown that he values players who’ve played for Greg Roman previously and, in Mekari’s case, players with postion flexibility.
Kyle Juszczyk as the team’s new FB/wing TE would be the cherry on top.
Maybe he decided to play for the owner vs the tenant.
I put the Jeffersons gif in there but it didn’t work. I am on an iPad, which is dangerous.
It’s unfortunate that they likely missed their top targets but it is what it is at this point. I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t add an edge player until after the draft. DB, LB should be same. I do expect to see them sign a TE, WR, OL and DL but none are likely to be major upgrades over who they’re replacing from last year so the juiciest improvements to the roster will have to be via draft picks.
I guess it is obvious that Hortiz has chosen to prioritize comp picks even in an offseason when he had $90M in cap space to spend, which literally may never happen again. Yay for those 2026 end of 5th round picks?
Spending up to $9.5M on Harris and not spending $10M on Ford seems questionable. And where is the cap space going to be used?
I’m hoping Joe pleasantly surprises me somehow.
Hypothetically – what if a part of it is just Jim having a fundamental belief that top-end free agency contracts have too low of a success rate. The mentality of – “If they were worth top-end money, their team would have franchised/extended them?”
I partially agree with that sentiment, but believe it shouldn’t be followed religiously.
Well, that would blow up my theory on Ford…
Wholeheartedly agree on Harris. Unless he caught wind that JK was signing at or above that, making it a wash… it’s a very confusing decision.
I’m definitely disappointed as well – specifically that if that was his plan, why did he not go harder for Davante? Is Cooper his preferred target? Just feels like a miss in that regard, unless a part of the equation is spending money on players that are expected to earn a comp pick when they leave.
I think there’s still plenty of runway for this to work out… there were so many deals today that felt too rich for my blood, like Milton Williams. But yes, the Poona Ford deal was tough to stomach.
As far as Poona and Adams going to the Rams—and it hurts to say this but—one team in LA is closer to the Lombardi than the other. One team in LA has won a Super Bowl. There’s no way the Chargers couldn’t have beat the money paid out to those two, but perhaps they thought the Rams were championship ready while the Chargers are still trying to figure things out. I hate to think that way, but it may be true.
Very weird day. I do think the cap rising higher than originally projected (again!) definitely could have had an affect. Jason from OTC mentioned they still are back-paying COVID, but they cleared their expectations in revenue/cap again. Could definitely see some teams feeling empowered to go a little extra-crazy, and then you have teams like the Pats similarly loaded with cap space but a much worse roster, spending feverishly.
The reality is… this looks like the anti-Telesco roster strategy- just throwing money and longer deals in free agency, which is nice to pivot from. Both deals signed are deals we can probably expect to see the players play-out.
An excuse for what? I’m not trying to explain why Hortiz didn’t make a splash signing in my response to Fiat/Smith… he was just talking about how the thinner FA pool and extra cap created sole crazy signings. The top end of the market jumped higher than anyone predicted (Milton Williams went for 26M, PFF had him at 21M, we had him at 21.5M). I’m trying to connect the “why.”
@kylededi
If this isn’t intended to explain why the Chargers didn’t sign any other players, I’m not sure what the point of it is.
As for Williams, he signed with the Pats, right? Unlike the Chargers, the Pats are all in on spending their cap space on impact players, even though they are further from contending. And they might have to pay more to get free agents to NE. I think that is a more likely reason for Williams’ contract than that the cap went up by $4M.
Very different philosophies.
The day in general saw teams spend way above projections at multiple positions. It’s common on Day One, but it felt substantial. Massive overpays above projections at C, T, DT, LB, and CB. It’s been a wild day. I think it’s OK and on-topic to discuss that.
This is how free agency goes for many teams who don’t have Hortiz as their GM. They spend their cap space on perceived high market impact players.
It remains to be seen if Hortiz’s strategy will pay off.
Mack is back!!! There’s joy in Mudville!!!
And I like the Jackson signing. Very much in character.
Same here Buck – Jackson feels like a solid guy to round out the room… can keep up with the fastest WR’s, didn’t cost an arm and a leg. Gotta trust Minter on that one.
Kyle, thanks. This’ll be a helpful thread in the Joe Hortiz era. I can’t help laughing at the hand-wringing and yelping happening over in the “other” site, BFTB.
No worries! This wasn’t my preferred path today, but hey, I really trust this group. Still plenty of IOL talent out there.