We’ve just released Episode 117 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis for Episode 117 is below:
Preseason Football’s arrived and the Los Angeles Chargers destroyed the Detroit Lions 34-7 in the NFL’s annual Hall of Fame game. Meanwhile, Bolts Legend Antonio Gates was handed his gold jacket in Canton, Ohio by fellow superstar LaDainian Tomlinson. Join us for a special Thunder Down Under Chargers episode as we break down the first piece of Chargers game action for 2025! Afterwards, we continue our Opponents Series, staying home within the division to talk about some well-known rivals. Can the Chiefs keep on keeping on? Is Pete Carroll’s quest for immediate 10-win seasons Raidiculous? And why is Sean Payton such a….%#&%? Don’t miss it as we discuss it all!
You can also listen on Spotify below (or download on audio wherever you like to listen to podcasts):
https://open.spotify.com/episode/150x8R7WflEAq6T7QMoEqr?si=Fv8HjkdxQVOJfHcIdECyBw
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Hope you enjoy the episode! Thanks so much for listening 🙂
Alister (@TDU_Alister)
If you could get Parsons for a couple of first you do it. Guy is a dominant force. I recall the Bolts gave up Fred Dean for less but Fred became a 2 time SB champion and a Hall of Famer.
Yes it is a lot to give up but it is really only 1 first you get a superstar for the other one and there is likely no way you would be finding a guy like this in the later part of the draft. If your team is kinda going all in…you need to be bold. Though the OL is still a concern.
I don’t see how the NFL could do anything to a player that has never been in trouble and, was cooperative throughout the process and, by all accounts, legally owned guns.
Sounds like he ran into a cop having a bad day.
And the DA declined to charge Denzel Perryman. So… Looks like he was Scottie Scheffler-ed
Let’s hope the league (looking at you, Goodell, ya empty fucking suit) takes the same approach.
Great podcast. As someone who’s been alive longer than you guys, I appreciate the time away from work/family you put into making this podcast happen (I know commenting regularly is a challenge for me). I enjoyed the pod today during an un-usual cool summer afternoon round of golf. A few comments:
Allen: I would not mind having him back, I just think he’s redundant with what’s on the roster now & that signing him would limit other moves you could make (like Parsons). I do not see 33+ year old Keenan as a difference maker in the season, so I think I agree with Al, this is cool, but not excited about it and not a move I would make
Parsons: Speaking of making a difference, Parsons could actually be a difference/championship maker for this team. Micah is 26 and heading into his prime at a premium position. If the team can figure out how to structure his contract, teaming him with Mack and Tuli takes this defense to a different level. This is how championships are won. Putting Micah-fuckin-Parsons on this Chargers team makes them a serious SB championship threat. Imagine with Minter could do with James, Mack, Parsons on the LOS…
Pre-season game:
Lance was good. I still think Heinke’s high-floor make him QB2 & Lance’s high-ceiling keep him on the team. I expect Hortiz to highlight both in the pre-season and wait for a 3rd round pick (or better) in return. I also thought DJ looked good
If KLS can be a player, the WR room is suddenly very sneaky-good
I thought Zion the blocker looked pretty good at center. Can’t have the bad snaps in a meaningful NFL game. I still think James is the best center on the team
The culture this team is developing in the DB room is amazing, and can propel this team to another level. Bring in Parsons & this is a championship defense.
Chiefs: I thought their 2023 draft/off season was amazing. The last 2 years, not so much. The OL is suspect, their weapons on offense are meh. However, they have Andy Reid and Mahomes. This makes them the favorites to win the division. I do think this is the year the Chargers challenge them. I predict 1-1, with the Charges winning in week 1
Raiders: LVR are better with a serious coach in Carroll, but still have below-average QB and no depth. This is a 6-8 win team the Chargers should sweep easily. No idea why Pete Chose the Raiders to be his swan-song, but winning there is going to be difficult. Maybe he’s grabbing the bag of cash?
Broncos: Great fun fucking with the douche-bag that is Sean Payton. Dude deserves as many sweaty balls shoved in his face as possible. That said, Sean can coach and their defense is legit. I do not like Nix as a long-term NFL top-end QB. OK as an athlete. Below-average arm. I think the league catches up with him this season and Denver wins 8-9 games.
Sorry: Forgot to discuss the Perryman firearms charges. Don’t know the details, but two things to consider:
Perryman lives in Florida. My guess is that the “assault weapons” he was arrested for he legally owned in Florida and transported to CA (to fire at a gun range)
California’s “assault weapons” definition has been ruled un-constitutional by the US supreme court
My guess is that a couple over-eager cops (coppers in Aus) got carried away and that the charges will be dismissed as soon as the attorney general reviews the complaint
On Keenan: I set out the relevant factors (at least, in my opinion) in a response to Tau above. I think it’s undeniable that he’d make us better on the field this season and Herbert would be pleased about the signing. But there are other considerations and some of those I am not privy to right now (contract terms, what kind of shape he’s in), so where I land is without much of an opinion. If they sign him, I’ll get it. If they don’t, I’ll get it.
On Micah: From your lips to God’s ears.
On the rest: We’re on the same page except for Denver who I think might get to double-digit wins again (unfortunately).
Thanks mate
On Parsons, agree they should acquire him if possible, though it is very tough to pay him $45M+ per year while also paying Herbert, Slater, and Derwin, and knowing they will have to pay big for McConkey and Alt during Parsons’ contract. If they are comfortable with the cap math, I agree he would be one of the most impactful players they could possibly add.
On Allen, I’m sure Al’s data is accurate, but the Chargers presumably not be signing him to get 117 targets. Not with McConkey on the team, the low pass attempt offense, and all of the other potential pass target upgrades (Harris, KLS, Conklin, Gadsden). As mentioned, IMO playing with Herbert again and for the Chargers coaching staff would likely be much better for him than playing with rookie QB Williams and the Bears coaching staff. There is no question in my mind that adding him in place of Reagor or Davis improves the WR group, and I think they should do it as long as he will sign a reasonable contract.
On Zion, I agree that it probably isn’t reasonable to extrapolate what we saw to a full season. But I will counter by saying he did that against second string opposing players. That is a counter effect to the likelihood that the extrapolation isn’t totally fair. And, importantly, if they were facing the Lions first string defense, losing that down on the muffed snap might have taken 4 points off the board. That could be the difference in winning or losing.
I agree with predicting 1-1 vs. KC, 2-0 vs. LV, and 1-1 vs. DEN. Will be interesting to see where 4-2 division record ranks in the division.
Another good show. Thanks guys.
I agree it adds a stressor, but I absolutely think it’s within reason and reach to pull off. We’d be shifting from the Ravens approach to more of a Rams approach – where 1st rounders are used to acquire bonafide veteran stars, and the draft replenishment comes from Day 2 and (mostly) Day 3 picks… but I absolutely trust Hortiz to make due with that kind of draft day scenario.
If you consider the framework of the Bears trade for Khalil Mack as a great comp, (Mack, 2020 2nd, 2020 7th for 2019 1st, 2020 1st, 2020 6th, and 2020 3rd), I would attempt to add to the pick count as much as possible to offset the lost first. Perhaps something like:
DAL Receives: Quentin Johnston or Derius Davis, 2026 1st, 2027 1st
for
LAC Receives: Micah Parsons, 2026 5th, 2026 7th, 2027 4th.
However, I’m skeptical they would value Davis highly. They have a 1st team All Pro returner in Turpin, and they have Lamb and Pickens as their top 2 WRs, with a gaggle of depth behind them.
Instead, I could also see including Dupree or Kennard as the player in the deal; I would prefer Dupree, but Dallas might prefer Kennard.
If the Chargers acquire Parsons, it is only going to cement the fact that they will want to keep 4 Edge players, not 5. Obviously, Mack and Tuli are locks. So if they don’t trade Kennard or Dupree, one of them might be off the final roster.
Obviously, I think agreeing in advance on a contract extension must happen before executing a trade.
By the way, I don’t think there is any chance the Chargers will do this…
Someone complaining about being competitive will be selective about where he wants to go. This gives Parsons (and the Chargers) leverage. Not sure what it will take, but I think it’s going to be less than you think
Would be a different kind of move for Hortiz. If they do this, I think they’re thinking they have a shot at the championship this year.
Oh well, been there before with mixed results. 😆
In the meantime, here’s another gratuitous trip pic…close encounter of the wildlife variety, just outside of Jasper Alberta.
As far as trade compensation, we have to remember that Micah is essentially already under contract with DAL from 2026-2028. The estimated 2026 franchise tag for a LB/DE is around $28M. If they tag him two times after that, his total three-year pay will total 3Yrs/$110, just over $36M APY. That gives DAL some negotiating room to say, “Someone’s going to have to pry this guy from us.”
As you mentioned- an extension will likely have to be negotiated before a trade is made, but that also means once they cross that bridge teams would have no trepidation over whether this same problem will rear its head when he comes to their locker room.
I actually think it will (slightly) affect Micah’s contract if a team has to “come to the rescue.” I think he’ll still hit the $45M APY mark that we’ve discussed, but I think it’ll be buoyed a little bit by a huge, unguaranteed contract year like Tyreek Hill received after his Dolphins trade, and the “guaranteed” portion is set to match or come slightly under the Watt and Garrett deals. That way, Micah still gets the “resetting the market” moniker… but a little bit of compensation/flexibility will likely have to be given to his new team to help offset the lost draft capital. Especially if he goes to a true competitor.
I dont mind giving up two firsts at all in this scenario – one of those firsts would likely be going towards a (albeit, inexpensive) EDGE, and we’ve addressed the roster positions that usually command the 1st round. I’d take the generational talent that would take this defense to a whole new level in a heartbeat.
We’re not going to be picking in the Joe Alt portion of the 1st anymore, we’ll be back in the Hampton/QJ/Zion areas. If we can get some Day 3 picks back, I’d trust Hortiz to still build out a deep, talented roster even if we’re sans two firsts
@kylededi
Agree. Consider the Chargers past 10 first round picks:
RB Hampton
RT Alt
WR Johnston
G Johnson
LT Slater
QB Herbert
LB Murray
IDL Tillery
S James
WR Williams
Obviously Herbert is different than the rest due to position. Of the other 9, only Slater, Alt, and maybe James might be considered to be generational talents, and it seems fair to say that at least 4 of these players were disappointments.
And you make an excellent point that the Chargers probably won’t be picking as high as they drafted Herbert, Alt, and Slater in the next few drafts.
Parsons is a sure thing. Draft picks are not sure things.
I’m fine with one and change. Not two.
I’m in.
CB Starks
CB Wiggins
WR Flowers
S Hamilton
C Linderbaum
WR Bateman
Edge Oweh
LB Queen
WR Marquise Brown
TE Hurst
Hamilton is the best of this group and is the only one of these players picked earlier than pick 22 (he was pick 14). This gives you an idea of the kind of value the Chargers will be drafting with Harbaugh as head coach.
I would easily trade any two of these players for Parsons.
And I’m sure you know that Hortiz was the assistant GM with the Ravens so we really don’t know just how much pull he had on final decisions.
It might be very naive of me, but I automatically assume the Chargers are picking in the 20’s (or 30’s) for the majority of Harbaugh’s tenure. The value of firsts is so drastically different from the early to late picks, I think you end up getting some surplus value by trading future firsts from a perennial playoff contender to teams that are a little more roster depleted. Just a theory, though.
I totally agree with Buck that our drafting overall is going to be much better with Hortiz – but that’s actually what inspires confidence in me to make moves like this.
I think there’s a part of me that thinks Micah could be the final piece to this being a legit championship contender – ALL feelings still held regarding the center position Buck, but the defense would just seem so dang scary that we should be able to pull it off.
And if that’s the case – I have an emotional pull to make a trade like this happen, sign Keenan, and give Mack and Keenan the best chance in their careers to go get a Super Bowl.
I’m not immune to those same emotions with regards to either player you mentioned. I’m just loathe to give up that draft capital. And I’ll cop to some emotion here….I despise Jerry Jones and the Cowboys so giving them that draft capital tastes pretty bad.
Good continuation of this conversation guys.
In an ideal world it wouldn’t cost two firsts, but if it did, I can’t help but playing out this conversation in my mind:
’Hey Joe, do you want two lottery tickets that give you a chance to find one player who, if you’re really lucky, might come close to sniffing the britches of a player like Micah Parsons, or do you want…Micah Parsons.’
The cost of a $45m player v the cost of first round picks and whatever else you could spend that money on is obviously also a significant part of the equation, but generally speaking I think GMs sometimes are too enamoured by the allure of ‘picks’ when they are the unknown v the known NFL commodity.
Hypothetical GM in response: ‘Yeah Al, but imagine what those picks could turn into if one hit? They could even turn into a player like……………..Micah Parsons…’
😆
I’m not at all certain that there’s a right or wrong answer here. As previously stated, I’m loathe to give up that kind of draft capital being of strong “draft & develop” mindset. But I’d be a damn liar if I said the prospect of adding Parsons to this defense isn’t enticing as hell and I absolutely understand the chance you take with all but a few draft prospects every year.
Thankfully we don’t have to do anything more than discuss as fans. We only endure the joy or angst generated by other’s decisions. 🙂
Not sure the lottery ticket analogy is a good one. Lottery is pure luck. Drafts require lots of research, preparation and skilled execution. The question for the Chargers is how much value would Parsons add vs. the draft capitol & salary costs required to acquire and keep Parsons through is prime.
With this front office, I think the picks are more valuable than in a Telesco-led FO. I also think the having 2 1st round picks under their rookie contract for 5 years each adds a lot of flexibility that signing Parsons for $45M/year does not.
My opinion is that the value Parsons add is not worth the total costs of 2 first round picks + the large salary cap allocation (especially when the team is going to need to pay Ladd, Alt, Henley, etc. in the first 2 years of Parsons extension.
This is multidimensional chess. I respect everyone having a different opinion. I just think you need to consider all the costs of obtaining Micah, vs the value he adds.
I agree there’s no question that adding Keenan improves the group.
What does he cost financially? (ie, your reasonable contract point)
What is the opportunity cost financially?
What does he cost in lost developmental opportunity for other receivers whose snaps he’ll presumably take (hard to quantify + maybe who cares and sitting/learning is good for them?)
What does he bring off the field (mentorship etc)?
How did the workout go. Does he look fit? I don’t want another situation where it takes until Wk 9 for him to look in-shape. Might cost the team games.
These to me are the relevant factors. He has chemistry with Herbert. If the contract is reasonable, I think they should do it.
Good additions to the Zion conversation. Cheers.
I can see the mentor factor. I hyped that with Mack. What’s it gonna cost is the big question in my book. I love Keenan. I hope to see him retire as a Charger…like PR did.
@buck-melanoma
I don’t think it’s a bad take, Buck.
Generally, practical experience > theoretical experience IMO. At some point, WRs will have to take their lumps learning to perform under pressure and with crowd noise. Earlier in their contract that happens, the better, as far as I’m concerned.
Unless there is data (that I’m not aware of) supporting WRs sitting in Yr 1, I would view this as one “Con” of the team signing Keenan. One of QJ, KLS or Tre Harris will see fewer snaps. If it’s KLS or Tre Harris, that’s something I care about.
Now. Just in case you think I’m agreeing with you too much, I don’t agree with your comments above on Parsons: “… not giving up that kind of draft capital, not even for Jesus” 😉
The way I see it:
Acquiring Parsons should give us real confidence that we’re a 10+ win team for the next few seasons.
Therefore, Round 1 draft picks should be in the 20s.
Draft picks get less valuable the lower they are.
QJ was pick 21 and Omarion Hampton was pick 22.
Is Micah Parson more valuable to the Chargers than QJ + Hampton (taking a real-world example of what two first might look like)? Abso-fuckin’-lutely!
I don’t want to get all Les Snead ‘eff them picks’ on everybody. But for a transformative player like Micah Parsons, I think it would be difficult to come up with an ‘overpay’ situation. He’s worth it.
This article doesn’t mention the Chargers but it does give Parsons’ trade scenarios, 2 of the 3 requiring 2026 and 2027 1st round picks. I can’t get on board with that.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6531591/2025/08/02/micah-parsons-trade-proposals-jets-bears-packers/?source=athletic_pulsenewsletter&campaign=14397545&userId=12566676
The last two 1st round picks were Hampton and Alt. I would not trade Parsons (in 5th year of his rookie contract) for two Hortiz-first round picks, who we can control at the rookie scale for 5 + years. That’s two plus players under contract for a combined 10 years. Not something I would do and not something I think is going to be necessary.
You need to think of both the value of the players this Chargers front office would pick plus the number of years the Chargers would control in a rookie contract.
Sorry if I was the one that poo-poo’d Buck, not my intention!
Like Al said – I definitely think its a valid concern, I just also think the guys learning from Keenan also presents an opportunity. But thats just me guessing – I have no real way of knowing if that’d help, or if this room needs that. I’m personally just really excited about the trio of Ladd/Harris/KLS, and would like to see their development aided in every way we can.
I dont mean to be down or negative on QJ – but I’m just at the point where if we can replace his roster spot with a guy that helps us win now and could potentially mentor the other three – I’d prefer moving on it.
I see value in Keenan, particularly as a mentor. A lot of my concern is the cost, in $$, reps, and redundancy. If it happens I’m ok with it provided the contract is reasonable. I’m just not promoting it.
And this is in no way me protecting QJ. I’d just be shocked if he’s let go. Now, as part of deal for Parsons? I’m all ears.
Great show, guys! Hope you are right about going 5-1 in the division, though it’d be tough.