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With under a week left before the draft I know most fans have started to create their own strategies or have certain players they like or want for a myriad of reasons. I figured this would be a good forum to discuss anything from certain players to overall predictions about the draft. Anything draft related is game, so give us your best takes, observations, predictions, crushes or anything you want to discuss.
My first take is that this will be a very weird first round. Since this draft has so few top QB and Blue Chip players at Edge, OL and WR, the first round after pick one is a mystery. Usually the top 4-6 players are pretty locked in by now, but outside of Cam Ward going to Tennessee, who are the next 4-5 picks going to be? Cleveland could go Sanders, Carter, or Hunter. Are the Giants passing on QB after signing stop gap options in Wilson and Winston? Could Jeanty go as high as 5 to Jacksonville? Will the Raiders take Sanders if he drops?
IMO, this draft class is not as talented at the top as most classes. It is a much more bunched group of “good” players so teams will focus more on players that fit their schemes and cultures more than overall talent in years past which could lead to some surprising choices in Rd1. When can you remember the perceived top WR be mocked anywhere from pick #4 to #25?
I do not foresee a lot of trading up and down on day one because there will not be QB’s or Blue Chips falling because of the usual QB tax at the top. I think teams will be more inclined to wait until they are on the clock and decide on the best player within their tier at a position of need. I think the teams after the top 10 will really have their first round selection determined by the picks before them more than past seasons. Even when the Chargers had mid to late round picks in Rd1 we kind of had an idea of what players and positions would be available at their pick. This year is wide open which has the possibility of this being both an intriguing first round, but also a disappointing one to some fans.
Unless it’s McMillan, I doubt the Chargers will take a WR in the 1st round. There just isn’t the top end talent at the position this year. They could choose to take one in the 3rd, with Keenan as the placeholder/insurance policy so they have something to field this year. They certainly need to add WR youth, but perhaps decide that next year will have better pickings.
@kathmandusteve I would not wait until Rd 3 to add a WR unless we grab a TE in Rd1. I have not looked into next years class yet, but from some of the players that I already know and who could be available at WR, the majority of them are in the 5’10-6’1 range. I am never a fan of kicking a position down the road unless it’s QB, because you never know how the next year’s draft will shake out. Players you like could stay in school, they can suffer injuries and it is impossible to tell where you will be drafting. Prime examples are the TE and C positions in recent drafts. ’23 for TE and ’24 for C were the best crop of players at those positions in over a decade. We passed on them both and are still looking to find adequate players at both positions.
The WR position doesn’t have the top of the draft blue chips from recent years, but there are about 12-15 players that con come in and be immediate upgrades. Herbert needs more talent, period. There is a good chance QJ doesn’t get the 5th year option picked up which could make ’26 his and Davis’ last season with LAC. Williams and Reagor are on one year deals. So our only bona fide WR going forward at this point is Ladd. Herbert needs more weapons period. How many years are we going to keep hearing this mantra without addressing it with premium players?
@evolz3737 Yes, if they don’t take a wideout in the first, I’d relish taking one in the second, if a good one remained available. We need to bolster the offensive playmakers. So that means committing high end prospects through the draft, whether it be WR, TE, RB or IOL.
Anyone find it weird that Milroe was one of the 17 prospects invited to the draft? The league and his agent must be hearing something. I can’t believe they would subject him to not being selected in Rd1.
Each year, I post a Predictive Round 1 Mock Draft.
This is my best guess of what happens in this year.
https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1914066772145439162
@alisterlloyd Without reading any replies to you on X, I’ll take a shot (differences bolded):
- TEN – QB Ward
- CLE – WR/CB Hunter
- NYG – Edge Abdul Carter
- NE – T Campbell
- JAX – IDL Graham
- LV – RB Jeanty
- NYJ – T Membou
- CAR – Edge Walker
- NO – QB Sanders
- CHI – Edge Green
- SF – Edge Stewart
- DAL – WR McMillan
- MIA – T Banks
- IND – TE Warren
- ATL – Edge Williams
- ARI – CB Barron
- CIN – IDL Nolen
- SEA – OL Zabel
- TB – LB Campbell
- DEN – RB Hampton
- PIT – IDL Grant
- LAC – TE Loveland
- GB – CB Johnson
- MIN – CB Hairston
- HOU – T Simmons
- LAR – CB Amos
- BAL – IDL Harmon
- DET – Edge Ezeiruaku
- WAS – S Starks
- BUF – CB Revel
- KC – T Conerly
- PHI – Edge Pearce
Breakdown:
- 7 Edge
- 6 OL
- 5 CB
- 4 IDL
- 2 QB
- 2 RB
- 2 TE
- 1 WR
- 1 WR/CB
- 1 LB
- 1 S
WR Golden (and possibly WR Egbuka) is a notable omission. I am probably too CB heavy, with 5 in the first round, not including Hunter.
Will be fun to watch this play out.
@tau837 Very fun to see play out!
I think all of your different picks make sense and I considered many of them myself. For example, I considered Simmons at Houston and then decided his injury history was rough plus Donovan Jackson has outside/inside flex.
I think the least likely of your different picks to come true is Colston Loveland making it to 1.22. I think I might even be low having him last until to 1.14. Peter Schrager tweeted this out today: https://twitter.com/PSchrags/status/1914139872782094810
I obviously hope you’re right about that.
And I think the least likely of my different picks to yours to come true is Matthew Golden to the Packers given their draft history and penchant for taking large linemen from the SEC in Round 1. But I think he’d fit their Offense well so I kind of forced that pick.
Good luck and may the better man win 😛
@alisterlloyd I agree that intuitively I don’t think Loveland (or Warren) will be available at 22. But working through it team by team, I felt other players were better choices. Admittedly, I think I know a lot about the Chargers, but not so much the other teams.
@alisterlloyd I will join the fun and post one today. I don’t get the love for Revel. He was a JUCO player that walked on at ECU for one year then suffered a significant knee injury and was out last season. Is that resume really round 1 worthy? Also, the Bills are desperate for some IDL and secondary help. I do not think they will take another skill position player in Rd1 especially with Tyliek Williams and Emmanwori on the board who is one of the top 5 athletes in this draft. I don’t see a way he falls out of RD1.
@alisterlloyd Here’s my stab at it. I hear that both TE are high on boards so I doubt Loveland makes it to 1.22 but I just couldn’t find a spot to get both in ahead of our pick. I still think there is a real chance Egbuka or a DT end up as our pick as well. This first round was one of the more difficult to predict b/c of the dearth of premium talent at premium positions. I did my best to take new HC and their philosophies/schemes into consideration as well as team need and draft history.
@evolz3737 I like it Erick. Golden staying locally in Texas makes sense and so does Jacksonville surprising people by taking Tet. Pairing him with BTJ helps mitigate some of the separation concerns.
Tbh it’s surprising to me how much consensus there’s been in the Predictive Mock Drafts I’ve read in a year where you could throw a blanket over Picks 10-50 from a grading perspective. It probably means we’re all going to be drastically wrong 😊
I mean look how much consensus there is between your Mock, my Mock, and @tau837‘s Mock. When have the three of us ever agreed this much. We definitely shouldn’t be! 😆
@alisterlloyd HaHa. You’re right. Isn’t that what they say when gambling? If everybody is on one side you should bet the other one? While this draft isn’t as talent laden as some previous ones, it should set up an intriguing Day one and two.
My final thought after studying this draft class is simply that it is a very weak draft class, especially at the 1st round level.
I think there are only 4 – 5 players who would be in the top 10 of most drafts. WR in particular is very weak and in normal years McMillan would at best be a late first round player. QB is also obviously weak but desperate teams will get desperate.
The one thing this draft has a lot of is Running Backs. There are a lot of players that I’d be happy with that should be 2nd – 4th round picks.
There’s also a decent amount of guards and interior DL players but because the draft is so weak in general, almost all of the good ones will be gone by the 2nd round.
I don’t think many GMs are going to be drafting guys with 3rd or 4th round grades in earlier rounds just to fill a “need” so on Day 2 you’re going to see all of the pundits saying this team still needs “XYZ” and then the picks won’t come in at those positions so its going to throw everyone off. At least all of us amateurs. I’m guessing the professionals know better.
@blue-beers Pretty accurate assessment. This draft is devoid of the usual 3-4 QB that dominate the top of Rd1 and also the typical blue chip players at positions like OT, WR, Edge. It is a draft that has the most premium talent at less premium positions (RB,TE,DT,OG). Edge is fairly deep, but again there is not that bona fide star outside of Carter. The next edge off the board could easily be one of like 4 guys. Because of this I think the first round will be less chalky and surprising than any recent draft I can remember
My Draft Crush List
Nick Emmanwori, S South Carolina
Miles Frazier, OG LSU
TreVeyon Henderson, HB Ohio State
Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge Boston College
Darien Porter, CB Iowa State
Nic Scourton, Edge Texas A&M
Bradyn Swinson, Edge LSU
Darius Alexander, DT Toledo
DJ Giddens, HB Kansas State
CJ West, DT Indiana
Draft Sleepers
Connor Colby, OG Iowa
Caleb Ransaw, S Tulane
Tai Felton, WR Maryland
Kyle Monongai, HB Rutgers
Cam Jackson, DT Florida
Hunter Wohler, s Wisconsin
Here’s a story about which none of you should care, but I do.
On April 24, 2008, I went out to have drinks with a super attractive neighbor of mine in Cincinnati, where I was getting my Ph.D. She happened to be a really talented artist. From there, we moved to Kentucky together (her native state) where I had a one year visiting job (Centre College), then spent six years together while I taught at the University of Louisiana, Lafayette. Then, I took a job at Cal Poly (near my hometown) where my office was next to the Alex G. Spanos Stadium in the building that had once been the locker rooms when John Madden coached there. We live close to campus, so I walked to and from work. My first year, I was walking home when the Chargers drafted Joey Bosa. I was stoked. Things couldn’t have been better. In 2019, after I’d had a meeting with my department head who said they wouldn’t be extending my contract beyond 2020, I walked home to find they drafted Jerry Tillery. Sad trombone.
Well, we’ve ridden it out, job to job, since then. Now, the Chargers are in a great position. I’m the production manager for the local opera, and they’ve brought my gal on as the set painter. We’ve got two sold out shows coming in May and we’ve been dripping in sweat and paint for the past few months getting ready. First round pick this year will be on our 17th anniversary (Phil’s number) of those first drinks. We will probably be out to dinner (in paint spattered clothes) to celebrate our personal occasion, but I’ll keep an eye on my phone to see what happens at 1.22. This one is an omen for me.
We’ve seen Bengals and Chargers games together. She gave me my powder blue LT jersey for Christmas. It’s a mutual sadness that she was not there when I watched the Saints win the Super Bowl from a French Quarter bar (gawd, that was a night), but here we are.
So, whoever this pick should be tomorrow, it’s going to carry weight for me. April 24, number 17, Alex Spanos, John Madden, Super Bowl Championship. Here we go.
@smith great story. It matters, my friend, and definitely not just for the Charger connection.
Wishing you all happiness and success. Happy Anniversary! 🥂
And Go Chargers! 😁
@evolz3737 No sad trombones. Thankfully, the Chargers have a starting 53 at present that could probably win 7 games this year, which means this is a value draft. The first three (four?) picks should be able to replace the weaker elements who are now slated as starters. Even the first rounder may be ok as a rotational guy so long as he raises the floor. (Though I’d prefer a franchise changer.) I’m prepared to be happy with anyone at 1.22. If they trade down, fine. If they trade up, I’d be surprised, but, as in all things, in Hortiz we trust.
in relationships news, tough day at the office for me and my gal. Good news, we’re roughing it out together.
OK, I’ve been threatening for long enough…lol….so here it is, Buck’s clusters. I’m doing the first 4 rounds only, 5 players per round chosen from players I like and think will possibly be available with our pick. Those first 4 picks are 1.22, 2.55, 3.86, and 4.125. I’m just listing the players. They’re not necessarily in order of priority or preference.
Round 1
Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
Emeka Egbuka, WR, OSU
Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan
Grey Zabel, IOL, NDSU
Nic Scourton, Edge, Texas A&M
Round 2
Treyveon Henderson, RB, OSU
Darius Alexander, DT, Toledo
Omarr Norman-Lott, DT, Tennessee
Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Boston College
Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa State
Round 3
Jalen Royals, WR, Utah State
Jared Wilson, IOL, Georgia
Landon Jackson, Edge, Arkansas
Vernon Broughton, DT, Texas
RJ Harvey, RB, UCF
Round 4
Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Virginia Tech
Miles Frazier, IOL, LSU
Azareye’h Thomas, CB, FSU
Dorian Strong, CB, Virginia Tech
Ashton Gilotte, Edge, Louisville
I’m sorta expecting a trade up somewhere considering we have what, 6? day 3 picks. I think they’ll be someone on our board that we really like and is within striking distance, a la McConkey.
Two things are certain….there will be plenty of second-guessing and we’ll soon have 10ish new Chargers in the fold ( plus UDFA’s).
Happy NFL Draft Day 2025!!!
@buck-melanoma This is good. We like a lot of the same players. I like that you threw Jackson in Round 3. I think there’s a chance he slips. If t hat were the case, he would be a great value in Rd3. I also have Scourton high. Seems like he’s being forgotten about. It wouldn’t shock me if he went Rd1.
@evolz3737 thanks man. I do think we view player valuation in a similar manner.
If I were to expand anywhere, I’d probably add another TE somewhere in there. I’m still intrigued by what Arroyo could be.
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