Evaluating Joe Hortiz’s Second Offseason: What Should We Grade?

When Joe Hortiz took over as Chargers general manager in 2024, he inherited a roster weighed down by dead cap, underperformance, and a fragile offensive line that endangered Justin Herbert’s career. Hortiz responded by engineering massive salary and roster cuts, absorbing over $50 million in dead money, and prioritizing an offensive line rebuild—moves that set the tone for an aggressive turnaround. He renegotiated contracts, traded a fan‑favorite receiver, signed cast‑off veterans suited to the new system, and delivered a draft haul that revitalized key positions. The result? A playoff berth and newfound optimism around SoFi Stadium.

But now, in Year 2 with roughly $90 million in cap space, the expectations shifted. Rather than doubling down on blockbuster signings, Hortiz quietly lost productive players like Poona Ford, refrained from high‑profile splashes, and—apart from signing Mekhi Becton—stuck with journeyman free agents. That thriftiness may have disappointed fans, but the real litmus test lies elsewhere: compensatory picks, or the current lack thereof.

Compensatory Picks: Hortiz’s Anchor Metric

Hortiz has repeatedly stated his belief in creating a virtuous cycle of comp‑picks—drafting, developing, re‑signing core players, and reinvesting in future picks. In 2024, that strategy paid off with three compensatory selections (two sixths and one seventh).

But in 2025, Hortiz’s approach seems more scattershot: instead of targeting lower‑cost cast‑offs under CFA thresholds, the Chargers inked four moderate deals ($3M–$6.5M APY)—Najee Harris, Donte Jackson, Tyler Conklin, and Mike Williams—that risk nullifying those potential compensatory picks. Meanwhile, the departures of Poona Ford and Josh Palmer could have netted a 2026 fifth‑round and sixth‑round pick each. Those gains now appear likely canceled out.

How Should We Grade?

To fairly assess Hortiz’s second offseason, we need to look at at least four key metrics:

Early Verdict?

Letting an impact player like Ford walk for a reasonably affordable contract—after a career‑year in Minter’s defense—while signing four players whose salaries jeopardize comp‑picks may represent a procedural failure. Unless Niemann, Fox or Dobbins hit escalators to offset cancellations, this could be the most significant misstep in Hortiz’s tenure.

In short: Hortiz’s cap discipline and risk‑management shone in 2024, but 2025 may suggest he was a little unprepared to work with such a substantial budget, and does his best work under tighter constraints.

Let's hear from you, StormCloud:
Are we being too hard on Hortiz by emphasizing comp‑pick outcomes? Would you have preferred the positional upgrades that would have been more expensive - such as a Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Evan Engram, or Darius Slay- but would have preserved our compensatory picks? Or do you like Hortiz rolling the dice on larger volume of signings and players that will hit free agency again still within their prime? Drop your viewpoint below.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6217614/2025/03/21/nfl-free-agency-2025-best-value-contracts-salary/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=12566676&source=dailyemail

After leaving the fan base in limbo for a week, concerned that Joe Hortiz and Greg Roman may actually see Bradley Bozeman as the starting center moving froward, they make a brilliant pickup of Andre James who is an immediate favorite to win the job.

Andre James was someone that caught my eye last year when writing the 105 Contract Projections with Josh Queipo. Before he was extended by the Raiders, he was our #2 center entering free agency. The projection we had for Andre is below.

The Chargers have now added two offensive line pieces that have blocked for a 2000 scrimmage yard running back in recent years. While the center job isn't going to be handed to Andre, his prior success in a turbulent system and young age give hope that he can not only succeed in 2025, but that the Chargers may have found a guy that can be a foundational piece of this line for years to come.

Bradley Bozeman will now likely have a two-position battle to try and break camp as a starter, one against Zion Johnson at left guard and one against Andre James at center. As discussed when the details of his deal were announced, the Chargers gave him respectable pay for a solid depth piece, with heavy playtime incentives, indicating they were intent on bringing him competition and that Bradley was willing to bet on himself.

If this team is set on acquiring blockers on the line of scrimmage that have paved the way for 2000 yard backs, the rumors of Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrew's availability may lend a hint to where they may go shopping next.

Good afternoon StormCloud. We're about five hours into the start of free agency, and there has already been a flurry of movement around the league.

I'm going to do my best to update this tracker as quickly as I can, but given my kiddo responsibilities it won't be as timely as other sources, so please keep the chatter gong in the comment section.

What we are going to try to provide something that is a little unique. .. a cancelation chart that I'll update periodically that might help us navigate how Joe might be approaching free agency.

Teair Tart resigns, up to $5.5M

The Chargers have to say goodbye to Poona Ford, but retain Teair Tart. Tart made plenty of flash plays last year and was definitely a player the Chargers benefit from bringing back.

Najee Harris sigs for 1 year, (up-to 9.25M)

This one was pretty perplexing. Najee was a fan favorite in Pittsburg, with fans loving his dedication and reliability. He's a workhorse back, but performed at his best when working in a "Thunder and Lightning" running back committee. Harbaugh heavily recruit Najee when was a top prospect coming into college, so the Harbaugh ties continue.

The odd part of this signing was few pundits or fans saw the running back room as the cause of the running game being inconsistent in 2025. Unless a major overhaul is happening on the interior offensive line - with a scrap heap of players left over as the rest of the NFL has already plucked the big pieces of meat of the bone, the plan for protecting Justin Herbert and creating a physical presence up front is becoming cloudier and cloudier.

Bradley Bozeman extended

No official details yet other than it being a "multi-year deal," but Bradley Bozeman has been extended by the Bolts.

Bozeman could be a great depth piece or competition across all three IOL spots, but hopefully this isn't seen as a plug-and-play situation at center.

Projected Cancellation Chart

The two budgets fans typically consider when looking at free agency is "cash" and "cap." However, a third budget that General Managers that prioritize comp picks might utilize is a "Cancellation Budget." This is admittedly pure speculation on my part, but if Joe Hortiz follows this pattern this year, you can count on it being a a yearly expectation to follow this sort of model.

On the left, we have outgoing free agents. Projected departures and values are italicized. Confirmed signings are bolded. Comp rounds are left italicized until OverTheCap confirms the round to the best of their ability.

If Joe wants to continue averaging 2-3 compensatory picks a draft, he may assign budgets for himself in free agency. For example, going into this week, he may have assumed Asante Samuel and Poonah Ford may get 5th round comp pick APY's, and only was considering signing one marquee name because of it. With Josh Palmer surprising everyone with his $13M APY contract, Joe may now have added flexibility to sign two decent contracts - perhaps at guard, center, IDL, or edge, while still retaining one 5th round pick in 2026.

The same could apply for the 6th round departures. If Teair Tart follows this trend of defensive lineman outperforming their projections and breaks into the 6th round bucket (around 5-8 or 9M) that might change Joe's calculus as well.

We'll keep this chart updated as it goes!

First Signing, Khalil Mack is BACK

This one was an absolute relief. Khalil Mack is back on a very reasonable $18M deal.

Donte Jackson signs for 2-years, $13M

Donte Jackson looks to be another shrewd signing by Joe. He'll fall into the 6th round compensatory bucket, a bucket that the Bolts have plenty of outgoing FA's that should provide some 6th round picks in 2026.

Jackson is the exact type of value-oriented cornerback signing I was hoping to see from Joe. While Jackson's PFF grade was a below-average 49.5 last year, he's held quarterbacks to a passer rating of 75.2 when targeted and came down with 5 interceptions on the season.

He rounds out a cornerback room that had two rookies break out as capable starters in 2024. They could still look to add here - perhaps in the slot, or by picking up a rookie in the draft - but this rounds out the cornerback room nicely. If there is anything 2024 taught us, it's that Joe Hortiz and Jesse Minter know what they are looking for in their secondary acquisitions.

Great news to start free agency today!!! Let's go!!!

Several big name free agents suddenly became available after the latest roster cuts to get under the cap ceiling ahead of the start of the new season later this week. Two of those veteran cap casualties we wanted to take a look at were the former Washington Commander Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, most recently of the San Francisco 49ers. Ryan took a quick look at what each of those defensive tackles have to offer the Chargers when compared to the Chargers' starting interior defensive line duo, Poona Ford and Teair Tart who are both hitting free agency tomorrow.

Therefore we issued a quick Powderkeg Podcast update on the tape for the available options: https://youtu.be/C2IkYm4Oud0?si=_qAr0HTvdtHIaGAs

Both external free agent options mentioned here are coming of injuries in 2024, Jonathan Allen came back from a torn pectoral muscle ahead of schedule to be a force in the Commanders' deep playoff run whereas Hargrave sat out the rest of the season from Week 4 onward for a partially torn triceps. So to look at their season long production you need to go back to 2023:

So what do we think Stormcloud crew?

Should the Chargers take a swing at either of the newly emerged options? or should they prioritize filling the interior defensive line position from other sources?

Let us know in the comments below!

As many of you know, this is my second offseason studying and writing on NFL contracts with Josh Queipo. Josh was someone I met through Arjun Menon on Twitter/X, linking up over a shared love for researching contracts and GM strategies in the NFL.

After putting together 105 contract predictions in 2024's offseason as part of a contract with A to Z Sports, we were brought back for a second contract to do some restructure work. This year, we opted to start our own Substack. Below is a piece I started as I tried to hammer out cut candidates for all 32 teams, but it became way too time consuming so it was dropped in place of picking just one cut candidate from each squad, starting with the AFC.

If you like the work, feel free to check out the Substack here: https://joshqueipo.substack.com/. But don't worry - my Chargers related takes are still going to be available here, as Josh's Bucs takes will be available at Pewter Report... the Substack is just there if you want to explore what we are doing across the rest of the league and keep working towards building algorithms and models for contracts, trades, and draft decisions.

So here you have it! Here are valuations for players that may be on the roster bubble (or are rumored to be, but aren't!), and where their current performances will likely place their contract value if they are cut.

Trey Pipkins, Tackle, Chargers

 $9.25M Cap hit, $6.75M in savings

The stand-alone odd move of an otherwise amazing 2024 offseason for Joe Hortiz and Jim Harbaugh was retaining Trey Pipkins after drafting Joe Alt. Moving Trey to guard after his showcasing weak playing strength through most of his career was extremely questionable, especially with Tom Telesco at the helm of another organization that had a major need at right tackle. At the time, it seemed like an obvious decision to trade Pipkins, where his remaining two-year, $13,000,000 contract with no guarantees in 2025 was a reasonable low-risk contract for a team seeking a stop-gap starting tackle. Now, Trey is a failed experiment at guard and three seasons removed from his lone year of above-average starting play.

The below graphs show his valuations at tackle after the 2023 season, and at guard after the 2024 season. The Chargers are much less likely to find a trade partner in 2025 for anything higher than a 7th round pick or a pick swap.

Although it was hard to watch at times last year, Trey Pipkins’ stats and pass-blocking efficiency are still valued right around his cash earnings due in 2025. There’s not a way to adjust this algorithm for how a GM would feel about Trey adjusting back to tackle in 2025, but it does give a little more justification for Joe Hortiz to carry Trey for another season if he can’t trade him for decent compensation, as whatever swing tackle they would choose to bring in for cheaper would likely be a downgrade.

Likelihood to be cut: High (>55%)

Likelihood to be traded: Somewhat likely (30-40%)

Alohi Gilman, Safety, Chargers 

$6.75M cap hit, $4.5M in savings

Alohi Gilman is almost guaranteed to not be a cut-casualty, even after the Bolts extended Elijah Molden.; it's just been thrown out as a possibility and I feel some responsibility to quash it. Although his 2024 season was statistically a step-back from his breakout 2023 campaign, there’s no way Joe Hortiz cuts a player who’s 2023 season appraised at $19.08M APY. 

Two players had career season’s next to Alohi, with Derwin freed up to play closer to the line of scrimmage, and Elijah Molden playing as Jesse Minter’s third safety on the field. So while his season’s production only appraises at $3.09M, the Chargers will keep that room in-tact and hope Alohi either bounces back with another stellar season, or they could be content to let Alohi walk in free agency if 2026 if their evaluation of Alohi’s play coincides with PFF’s grades from this year.

The one wrinkle in this decision is the unexpected return of Brandon Staley as a defensive coordinator. While $4.5 million in savings isn’t enough to  justify parting with Alohi, Gilman put up an incredible season in Staley’s system, and knows the defensive backfield assignments well enough to on-board the safety and cornerback rooms. If Brandon Staley gets in Kellen Moore and Mickey Loomis’ ear, it would be interesting to see how Joe Hortiz and Jim Harbaugh would respond to a 3rd or 4th round pick on a fishhook.

Likelihood to be cut: Extremely low (>5%)

Likelihood to be traded: Probable, but unlikely (10-20%)

Gus Edwards, Running Back, Chargers 

$4.25M cap hit, $3.125M in savings

Gus Edwards the first external free agent to sign with the Chargers in 2024, signing a two-year, $6.5M contract. At 29 years old, his production in his 2023 season suggested an APY of $4.22M, and his missed season in 2021 made it difficult to quantify his value across a three-year spread. By most metrics, 2023 was a breakthrough year for Edwards, so it was very unlikely for it to surpass his platform year valuation. He was signed to be the head of the Chargers running back committee until J.K. Dobbins surprised with his post-Achilles tear recovery and ultimately ran with the starting job. 

Gus ended his 2024 campaign with almost half his 2023 production in explosive runs, rush yards, touches, missed tackles forced, and yards after contact.

Adjusted as efficiency metrics, it looks clear Gus’ production did not fall off because of the lack of touches alone. Each statistic tracked took a decent downturn, with explosive run efficiency and yards per attempt the most glaring concerns.

Adjusting for Gus crossing over the 30 year-old mark, and you have a player whose value suggests his salary should be approximately half of what he’s due to make. The Chargers also are likely looking to bring back J.K. Dobbins who looked like a premiere feature back when healthy, 

And with Kimani Vidal showing some flashes of potential in 2024 and Hassan Haskins being a key special teams contributor, Gus will likely be the odd man out if the Chargers elect to draft a running back in this deep and talented class.

However - with the relatively low cap savings from this smaller contract, they may choose to carry this contract through training camp and ensure the rest of the running back room is healthy heading into the season before parting with Gus.

Likelihood to be cut: High (>65%)

Likelihood to be traded: Probable (20%)

*Joey was cut as this was being written, but these numbers could serve as what Joey may sign for elsewhere, or what he may come back for if his market is soft

Joey Bosa, EDGE, Chargers

 $33,471,668M Cap Hit, $25,360,000 in savings

Joey survived cut candidacy in 2024 by reducing his salary from $22M to $15M, but negotiated an increased roster bonus in 2025 that also matured on the first day of the new league year, meaning the Chargers would pay $12,360,000 in hopes of trading Bosa and his remaining $13M salary. 

It’s hard to imagine the Chargers having any leverage in this situation, given Joey’s $13M salary and his valuation given his last three years of play.

Any team trading for Joey at his current cap hit would essentially be trading for the ability to overpay him in 2025 by $3M. Lack of availability plagued his 2022 and 2023 season, but even with the Chargers utilizing a heavy EDGE rotation in 2024 and with arguably the strongest supporting cast of his career, Bosa’s PFF grade and pressure rate on passing downs were the lowest of his career.

It’s implausible to think Joey will play another snap on his current contract. The Bolts may extend him at a much lower, team-friendly price, which may be heavily back loaded with little guarantees after 2026 to help Bosa save face, but the effective APY would likely be $10-12M for two or three seasons of expected play. Alternatively, Bosa may elect to forego his scheduled roster bonus in exchange for the Bolts guaranteeing him his $13M salary, saving them over $12M in cap and cash. While this would still be an overpay, retaining a career standout player has value in itself, and Joey’s relationship with Khalil Mack could further entice Mack to return to the powder blue.

Likelihood to be cut (if no pay cut is negotiated) : Almost given (>90%)

Likelihood to be traded: Extremely low (5%)

I was sitting in Notorious Burger in Carlsbad when I saw Joey's first game with the Bolts. It was 2016, and the Chargers had been struggling to find a consistent defensive identity since the days Jamal Williams was playing a two-gap in Ron Rivera's 3-4 defensive front. Melvin Ingram and Corey Liuget were the defensive stalwarts of the unit but didn't quite have the juice to make the defense a truly threatening unit without some additional support.

Enter Joey—a prospect many said wasn't a scheme fit for the Bolts, given they were still in a 3-4 base alignment and Bosa's size and past experience made him a better fit in a 4-3 scheme. DeForest Buckner or Jalen Ramsey were names frequently mocked in his place, as they seemed to be safer bets in John Pagano's scheme.

Instead, on that Sunday night in my favorite burger bar, I thought I saw the resurrection of Chargers' defensive football for the first time since those Rivera days. Joey Bosa looked every bit like the "Big Bear" nickname bestowed upon him, leaping off the snap and mauling offensive tackles with relentless ferocity.

He only played 27 snaps that day, 20 being passing plays, and still managed 7 total pressures and 2 sacks. He was an absolute menace... and funny enough, his future teammate Khalil Mack was watching from the other sideline as this one-man wrecking ball wreaked havoc in the offensive backfield.

It was genuinely the most fun I'd had watching the Chargers play defense since Shawne Merriman was striking his "Lights Out" dance. The Bolts finally had a transcendent player again who made watching the defense just as exciting as the offense, bringing an impact that carried to all levels of the defense.

Joey's play was elite for the better part of a decade until the cumulative effect of an injury-plagued career finally took a toll on his body. He played through multiple injuries in 2021, managing 69 pressures and 10 sacks while commenting on how beat up his body felt and how many injuries he was trying to overcome.

In 2022, Joey got off to a hot start, with two sacks in the team's opener and 9 pressures in the first two games. A groin injury forced him out of Week 3, and he didn't make it back until Week 17. Although he initially claimed he was feeling back to 100% and better than he had in years while prepping for their Week 18 matchup against the Broncos, Joey reaggravated the groin and hip again against the Jaguars in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, leading to his infamous double-helmet throw on the sideline.

From there, it's been a quick descent for Joey Bosa, as his peak performance between injuries has still flashed his elite abilities, but at a less and less frequent rate. He finished the 2023 season with only 523 snaps to his name across the previous two seasons. Newly hired GM Joe Hortiz and Head Coach Jim Harbaugh managed to negotiate a pay cut with Joey to keep him in powder blue for one more season, and despite nearly matching the total snaps over the past two seasons, the 503 snaps he took in 2024 still positioned him as more of a solid rotational piece and less of an elite game-changer... making the $26 million Hortiz could save by cutting him in 2025 a no-brainer.

Greetings StormCloud!

Ryan Watkins broke down his favorite defensive targets on our latest installment of PowderKeg Podcast. I've also posted the slides below for your reading pleasure.

I will also be creating separate, smaller videos for each target soon, if you don't feel like watching these long-form epsisodes.

Note - the NFL blocks the footage from being viewed outside of YouTube, so follow the link to check it out!

Hope you enjoy, let us know what you think in the comments below!

Good afternoon StormCloud!

Ryan and I got together again last week to go over tape of his favorite IOL targets. Take a look at the video below (you may have to watch on YouTube), and let us know what you think!

Additionally, here is a copy of the slideshow we prepared if you want to read-up on Ryan's notes that way!