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As many of you know, this is my second offseason studying and writing on NFL contracts with Josh Queipo. Josh was someone I met through Arjun Menon on Twitter/X, linking up over a shared love for researching contracts and GM strategies in the NFL.
After putting together 105 contract predictions in 2024’s offseason as part of a contract with A to Z Sports, we were brought back for a second contract to do some restructure work. This year, we opted to start our own Substack. Below is a piece I started as I tried to hammer out cut candidates for all 32 teams, but it became way too time consuming so it was dropped in place of picking just one cut candidate from each squad, starting with the AFC.
If you like the work, feel free to check out the Substack here: https://joshqueipo.substack.com/ . But don’t worry – my Chargers related takes are still going to be available here, as Josh’s Bucs takes will be available at Pewter Report… the Substack is just there if you want to explore what we are doing across the rest of the league and keep working towards building algorithms and models for contracts, trades, and draft decisions.
So here you have it! Here are valuations for players that may be on the roster bubble (or are rumored to be, but aren’t!), and where their current performances will likely place their contract value if they are cut.
Trey Pipkins, Tackle, Chargers
$9.25M Cap hit, $6.75M in savings
The stand-alone odd move of an otherwise amazing 2024 offseason for Joe Hortiz and Jim Harbaugh was retaining Trey Pipkins after drafting Joe Alt. Moving Trey to guard after his showcasing weak playing strength through most of his career was extremely questionable, especially with Tom Telesco at the helm of another organization that had a major need at right tackle. At the time, it seemed like an obvious decision to trade Pipkins, where his remaining two-year, $13,000,000 contract with no guarantees in 2025 was a reasonable low-risk contract for a team seeking a stop-gap starting tackle. Now, Trey is a failed experiment at guard and three seasons removed from his lone year of above-average starting play.
The below graphs show his valuations at tackle after the 2023 season, and at guard after the 2024 season. The Chargers are much less likely to find a trade partner in 2025 for anything higher than a 7th round pick or a pick swap.
Although it was hard to watch at times last year, Trey Pipkins’ stats and pass-blocking efficiency are still valued right around his cash earnings due in 2025. There’s not a way to adjust this algorithm for how a GM would feel about Trey adjusting back to tackle in 2025, but it does give a little more justification for Joe Hortiz to carry Trey for another season if he can’t trade him for decent compensation, as whatever swing tackle they would choose to bring in for cheaper would likely be a downgrade.
Likelihood to be cut: High (>55%)
Likelihood to be traded: Somewhat likely (30-40%)
Alohi Gilman, Safety, Chargers
$6.75M cap hit, $4.5M in savings
Alohi Gilman is almost guaranteed to not be a cut-casualty, even after the Bolts extended Elijah Molden.; it’s just been thrown out as a possibility and I feel some responsibility to quash it. Although his 2024 season was statistically a step-back from his breakout 2023 campaign, there’s no way Joe Hortiz cuts a player who’s 2023 season appraised at $19.08M APY.
Two players had career season’s next to Alohi, with Derwin freed up to play closer to the line of scrimmage, and Elijah Molden playing as Jesse Minter’s third safety on the field. So while his season’s production only appraises at $3.09M, the Chargers will keep that room in-tact and hope Alohi either bounces back with another stellar season, or they could be content to let Alohi walk in free agency if 2026 if their evaluation of Alohi’s play coincides with PFF’s grades from this year.
The one wrinkle in this decision is the unexpected return of Brandon Staley as a defensive coordinator. While $4.5 million in savings isn’t enough to justify parting with Alohi, Gilman put up an incredible season in Staley’s system, and knows the defensive backfield assignments well enough to on-board the safety and cornerback rooms. If Brandon Staley gets in Kellen Moore and Mickey Loomis’ ear, it would be interesting to see how Joe Hortiz and Jim Harbaugh would respond to a 3rd or 4th round pick on a fishhook.
Likelihood to be cut: Extremely low (>5%)
Likelihood to be traded: Probable, but unlikely (10-20%)
Gus Edwards, Running Back, Chargers
$4.25M cap hit, $3.125M in savings
Gus Edwards the first external free agent to sign with the Chargers in 2024, signing a two-year, $6.5M contract. At 29 years old, his production in his 2023 season suggested an APY of $4.22M, and his missed season in 2021 made it difficult to quantify his value across a three-year spread. By most metrics, 2023 was a breakthrough year for Edwards, so it was very unlikely for it to surpass his platform year valuation. He was signed to be the head of the Chargers running back committee until J.K. Dobbins surprised with his post-Achilles tear recovery and ultimately ran with the starting job.
Gus ended his 2024 campaign with almost half his 2023 production in explosive runs, rush yards, touches, missed tackles forced, and yards after contact.
Adjusted as efficiency metrics, it looks clear Gus’ production did not fall off because of the lack of touches alone. Each statistic tracked took a decent downturn, with explosive run efficiency and yards per attempt the most glaring concerns.
Adjusting for Gus crossing over the 30 year-old mark, and you have a player whose value suggests his salary should be approximately half of what he’s due to make. The Chargers also are likely looking to bring back J.K. Dobbins who looked like a premiere feature back when healthy,
And with Kimani Vidal showing some flashes of potential in 2024 and Hassan Haskins being a key special teams contributor, Gus will likely be the odd man out if the Chargers elect to draft a running back in this deep and talented class.
However – with the relatively low cap savings from this smaller contract, they may choose to carry this contract through training camp and ensure the rest of the running back room is healthy heading into the season before parting with Gus.
Likelihood to be cut: High (>65%)
Likelihood to be traded: Probable (20%)
*Joey was cut as this was being written, but these numbers could serve as what Joey may sign for elsewhere, or what he may come back for if his market is soft
Joey Bosa, EDGE, Chargers
$33,471,668M Cap Hit, $25,360,000 in savings
Joey survived cut candidacy in 2024 by reducing his salary from $22M to $15M, but negotiated an increased roster bonus in 2025 that also matured on the first day of the new league year, meaning the Chargers would pay $12,360,000 in hopes of trading Bosa and his remaining $13M salary.
It’s hard to imagine the Chargers having any leverage in this situation, given Joey’s $13M salary and his valuation given his last three years of play.
Any team trading for Joey at his current cap hit would essentially be trading for the ability to overpay him in 2025 by $3M. Lack of availability plagued his 2022 and 2023 season, but even with the Chargers utilizing a heavy EDGE rotation in 2024 and with arguably the strongest supporting cast of his career, Bosa’s PFF grade and pressure rate on passing downs were the lowest of his career.
It’s implausible to think Joey will play another snap on his current contract. The Bolts may extend him at a much lower, team-friendly price, which may be heavily back loaded with little guarantees after 2026 to help Bosa save face, but the effective APY would likely be $10-12M for two or three seasons of expected play. Alternatively, Bosa may elect to forego his scheduled roster bonus in exchange for the Bolts guaranteeing him his $13M salary, saving them over $12M in cap and cash. While this would still be an overpay, retaining a career standout player has value in itself, and Joey’s relationship with Khalil Mack could further entice Mack to return to the powder blue.
Likelihood to be cut (if no pay cut is negotiated) : Almost given (>90%)
Likelihood to be traded: Extremely low (5%)
Bosa cut, as was warranted.
Yes, cut Pipkins. Yes, cut Edwards.
I don’t think they should cut Gilman, although I was not in favor of signing him to the contract they did last offseason. It wouldn’t break my heart if they cut him.
I would cut Edwards, but I have a feeling they’re going to keep him.
@blue-beers His roster bonus is only 125k, and his overall savings are small enough that I’d bet they hang onto him all the way through camp, but still look to bring in another back (and Dobbins, assuming they re-sign him).
If everyone makes it through camp healthy, it would be really hard to find a spot for Gus if they do try to upgrade the room with an addition through the draft. Haskins is their specials teams guy, Vidal is hopefully on the rise… so it seems to leave Gus on the outside looking in unless they don’t select a RB until the 5th or beyond and think they can stash him on the PS.
We shall see on Gus. I concur with Kyle. And, he was injured much of last year, affecting his numbers and performance no doubt. Let’s keep an eye on it.
@kathmandusteve Just reported by Schefter (about 4:15 this afternoon) that they’re going to release Gus. For reasons discussed by Kyle and Tau, a little surprising, but not totally out of the blue.
Yeah – I think we can mark this down as just a vet-friendly move, doing right by the player? There’s no real advantage from a cap perspective from releasing him at this point, so I assume it’s just to allow Gus the most time possible to find a new team, and they are very confident in their options moving forward (or very confident in their lack of confidence in Gus!)
That answers the question…
removed link
Sorry Jimbo – the site has a built-in feature that blocks links until you’ve made 5 posts on this account. Kinda a pain, trying to work around it but keep posting and it will resolve itself in future posts!
@kylededi yeah no worries.
Long time chargers fan , been following the site since inception. Figured I might get the jump on the “regulars”…..
Starting to think Mack is not re-signing with the team. 😞
@unclejammsarmy Any reason for your thinking? Other than the glaring fact that he has yet to re-sign? I’m not too worried yet. I’m guessing his agent is doing his diligence and seeing what the market is like before finalizing any deal with LA. We’ll see. I really hope your feelings are off base on this one. If Mack goes, there’s going to be a significant reshuffling of team needs.
@smith it’s just speculation, but I believe Mack’s agent knows his value (despite tampering period beginning Monday) and would have wrapped up a deal with the team before Monday. If he gets to Monday, it’s because he wants to go elsewhere. Again, just my feeling. The longer this goes on, the less likely he’s coming back.
I know Tampa has interest in Mack. My partner with the contract work I do is a TB fan, but I actually got multiple “pings” from people in the TB market outside of him asking about Mack about 2-3 weeks ago. This last week, the report came out about TB being interested, and that tied it together.
The other side if it is I think they would have been aggressive in retaining Bosa if Mack was out the door. I think his agent is going to use outside leverage against us, but I think he ultimately stays put.
@kylededi I hope you’re right. I don’t want Mack to leave. He’s a perennial Buck Melanoma lunch pail guy.
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