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Good afternoon StormCloud. We’re about five hours into the start of free agency, and there has already been a flurry of movement around the league.
I’m going to do my best to update this tracker as quickly as I can, but given my kiddo responsibilities it won’t be as timely as other sources, so please keep the chatter gong in the comment section.
What we are going to try to provide something that is a little unique. .. a cancelation chart that I’ll update periodically that might help us navigate how Joe might be approaching free agency.
Teair Tart resigns, up to $5.5M
The Chargers have to say goodbye to Poona Ford, but retain Teair Tart. Tart made plenty of flash plays last year and was definitely a player the Chargers benefit from bringing back.
Najee Harris sigs for 1 year, (up-to 9.25M)
This one was pretty perplexing. Najee was a fan favorite in Pittsburg, with fans loving his dedication and reliability. He’s a workhorse back, but performed at his best when working in a “Thunder and Lightning” running back committee. Harbaugh heavily recruit Najee when was a top prospect coming into college, so the Harbaugh ties continue.
The odd part of this signing was few pundits or fans saw the running back room as the cause of the running game being inconsistent in 2025. Unless a major overhaul is happening on the interior offensive line – with a scrap heap of players left over as the rest of the NFL has already plucked the big pieces of meat of the bone, the plan for protecting Justin Herbert and creating a physical presence up front is becoming cloudier and cloudier.
Bradley Bozeman extended
No official details yet other than it being a “multi-year deal,” but Bradley Bozeman has been extended by the Bolts.
Bozeman could be a great depth piece or competition across all three IOL spots, but hopefully this isn’t seen as a plug-and-play situation at center.
Projected Cancellation Chart
The two budgets fans typically consider when looking at free agency is “cash” and “cap.” However, a third budget that General Managers that prioritize comp picks might utilize is a “Cancellation Budget.” This is admittedly pure speculation on my part, but if Joe Hortiz follows this pattern this year, you can count on it being a a yearly expectation to follow this sort of model.
On the left, we have outgoing free agents. Projected departures and values are italicized. Confirmed signings are bolded. Comp rounds are left italicized until OverTheCap confirms the round to the best of their ability.
If Joe wants to continue averaging 2-3 compensatory picks a draft, he may assign budgets for himself in free agency. For example, going into this week, he may have assumed Asante Samuel and Poonah Ford may get 5th round comp pick APY’s, and only was considering signing one marquee name because of it. With Josh Palmer surprising everyone with his $13M APY contract, Joe may now have added flexibility to sign two decent contracts – perhaps at guard, center, IDL, or edge, while still retaining one 5th round pick in 2026.
The same could apply for the 6th round departures. If Teair Tart follows this trend of defensive lineman outperforming their projections and breaks into the 6th round bucket (around 5-8 or 9M) that might change Joe’s calculus as well.
We’ll keep this chart updated as it goes!
First Signing, Khalil Mack is BACK
This one was an absolute relief. Khalil Mack is back on a very reasonable $18M deal.
Donte Jackson signs for 2-years, $13M
Donte Jackson looks to be another shrewd signing by Joe. He’ll fall into the 6th round compensatory bucket, a bucket that the Bolts have plenty of outgoing FA’s that should provide some 6th round picks in 2026.
Jackson is the exact type of value-oriented cornerback signing I was hoping to see from Joe. While Jackson’s PFF grade was a below-average 49.5 last year, he’s held quarterbacks to a passer rating of 75.2 when targeted and came down with 5 interceptions on the season.
He rounds out a cornerback room that had two rookies break out as capable starters in 2024. They could still look to add here – perhaps in the slot, or by picking up a rookie in the draft – but this rounds out the cornerback room nicely. If there is anything 2024 taught us, it’s that Joe Hortiz and Jesse Minter know what they are looking for in their secondary acquisitions.
Kyle, thanks. This’ll be a helpful thread in the Joe Hortiz era. I can’t help laughing at the hand-wringing and yelping happening over in the “other” site, BFTB.
No worries! This wasn’t my preferred path today, but hey, I really trust this group. Still plenty of IOL talent out there.
Mack is back!!! There’s joy in Mudville!!!
And I like the Jackson signing. Very much in character.
Same here Buck – Jackson feels like a solid guy to round out the room… can keep up with the fastest WR’s, didn’t cost an arm and a leg. Gotta trust Minter on that one.
I guess it is obvious that Hortiz has chosen to prioritize comp picks even in an offseason when he had $90M in cap space to spend, which literally may never happen again. Yay for those 2026 end of 5th round picks?
Spending up to $9.5M on Harris and not spending $10M on Ford seems questionable. And where is the cap space going to be used?
I’m hoping Joe pleasantly surprises me somehow.
@tau837 100% agree. Comp picks can’t be the determining factor in attacking free agency. Why create cap space with no intention of using it to secure better players? If the situation falls the right way and it nets a comp pick, great. But not spending on players to get late round picks a year from now is dumb. Surprised he cut Bosa. He could have possibly got a 4th Rd comp pick for him. Joe would have rubbed himself raw over that.
Hypothetically – what if a part of it is just Jim having a fundamental belief that top-end free agency contracts have too low of a success rate. The mentality of – “If they were worth top-end money, their team would have franchised/extended them?”
I partially agree with that sentiment, but believe it shouldn’t be followed religiously.
@kylededi This doesn’t feel likely to me. What feels more likely is being too rigid on setting a number for a player and not being willing to go over that number. That is what reportedly happened with Ford… the Chargers offered $6M/year and refused to go over the number. He signed for $10M/year.
@bolt_dk He posted it in the GAC discord. I don’t know if he posted about it anywhere else.
Wholeheartedly agree on Harris. Unless he caught wind that JK was signing at or above that, making it a wash… it’s a very confusing decision.
I’m definitely disappointed as well – specifically that if that was his plan, why did he not go harder for Davante? Is Cooper his preferred target? Just feels like a miss in that regard, unless a part of the equation is spending money on players that are expected to earn a comp pick when they leave.
I think there’s still plenty of runway for this to work out… there were so many deals today that felt too rich for my blood, like Milton Williams. But yes, the Poona Ford deal was tough to stomach.
@kylededi Weird day today, and I’m assuming the song will be the same tomorrow. My guess is that when you combine a smaller than usual free agent group (as far as studs are concerned) and a higher than expected salary cap you get bigger deals for sought after players.
As far as Poona and Adams going to the Rams—and it hurts to say this but—one team in LA is closer to the Lombardi than the other. One team in LA has won a Super Bowl. There’s no way the Chargers couldn’t have beat the money paid out to those two, but perhaps they thought the Rams were championship ready while the Chargers are still trying to figure things out. I hate to think that way, but it may be true.
Very weird day. I do think the cap rising higher than originally projected (again!) definitely could have had an affect. Jason from OTC mentioned they still are back-paying COVID, but they cleared their expectations in revenue/cap again. Could definitely see some teams feeling empowered to go a little extra-crazy, and then you have teams like the Pats similarly loaded with cap space but a much worse roster, spending feverishly.
The reality is… this looks like the anti-Telesco roster strategy- just throwing money and longer deals in free agency, which is nice to pivot from. Both deals signed are deals we can probably expect to see the players play-out.
@kylededi The cap went up by what, $4M? What is that, 1.5%? That is nothing. That is an excuse IMO.
An excuse for what? I’m not trying to explain why Hortiz didn’t make a splash signing in my response to Fiat/Smith… he was just talking about how the thinner FA pool and extra cap created sole crazy signings. The top end of the market jumped higher than anyone predicted (Milton Williams went for 26M, PFF had him at 21M, we had him at 21.5M). I’m trying to connect the “why.”
I do think the cap rising higher than originally projected (again!) definitely could have had an affect… Could definitely see some teams feeling empowered to go a little extra-crazy…
If this isn’t intended to explain why the Chargers didn’t sign any other players, I’m not sure what the point of it is.
As for Williams, he signed with the Pats, right? Unlike the Chargers, the Pats are all in on spending their cap space on impact players, even though they are further from contending. And they might have to pay more to get free agents to NE. I think that is a more likely reason for Williams’ contract than that the cap went up by $4M.
Very different philosophies.
@tau837 Fiat/Smith made a general observation about free agency, and I responded in kind, about the day in general.
The day in general saw teams spend way above projections at multiple positions. It’s common on Day One, but it felt substantial. Massive overpays above projections at C, T, DT, LB, and CB. It’s been a wild day. I think it’s OK and on-topic to discuss that.
@kylededi OK, fine. I think the cap going up was a non-issue. If you think it was relevant to what happened in free agency so far, I’ll just agree to disagree.
This is how free agency goes for many teams who don’t have Hortiz as their GM. They spend their cap space on perceived high market impact players.
It remains to be seen if Hortiz’s strategy will pay off.
@tau837 It is not a great free agency class, so maybe they are sticking to “Don’t pay B and C players A player money”. I am stoked that they didn’t blow big money on the ok receivers available. I am mostly against spending huge on free agents unless they are generational players that are going to put our team over the top. Otherwise it looks best to buy depth in free agency (Bozeman and Harris?) and get as many picks as possible. If they can do as well in the draft as last year, having a lot of picks will keep us flush with young, cheap talent. Ford’s loss is big, but it isn’t always the team’s fault. Ford greatly improved his life while not having to move. It likely was not a Chargers failure that he left. Tau, that last part is not directed at any of your comments, but at the unbelievable crybaby fits going on elsewhere about the Chargers “not signing Ford”.
@foutsmfic I agree Fouts. There were some players I would have loved to sign, but a lot of the prices didn’t make sense to me. I personally would have kept Ford for 10M/year, but I’m reserving judgement until how we see this all shake out
We know this about the draft:
- Edge is deep, although the strong players may be gone by mid to end of 2nd round
- IDL is deep
- RB is deep
- CB is good at the top
- At TE, there are two great prospects who may not make it to the Chargers’ first pick and after that the class is not the greatest
- WR is mediocre at best, at least relative to recent classes
- G is mediocre to weak
- C is weak
These are all needs for the Chargers. What I expected them to do is use their immense amount of cap space to solve a couple of these positions before the draft.
So what have they done?
- Mack doesn’t solve for Edge, he just maintains status quo; there is still a need to replace Joey.
- Tart doesn’t solve for IDL, he just maintains status quo; still need 2 starters to replace Ford and ideally upgrade Fox.
- Harris doesn’t solve RB, he just apparently replaces one of Dobbins/Edwards. Still need another player, presumably a rookie.
- Bozeman obviously doesn’t solve center, though I agree with signing him.
- Does Jackson solve the need at CB to the extent that the Chargers should not consider drafting CB barring unexpected value? I doubt it.
So out of all of these positions of need, have they taken any off the board for the draft? Not so far. To this point, it does not feel like a properly complementary strategy for cap space and draft picks. That is what makes it feel disappointing so far.
Ready for Joe to wow me with his strategy tomorrow.
@tau837 Nice summary. I agree with all of it but add two extra points:
- I agree with signing Bozeman but all we know about it is it was multi-year. I’m assuming it’s back-up money, but if it’s starter money I’ll be pissed off.
- Guard – I haven’t got to IOL tape yet but I’ve heard this class has good IOL depth and some of the best tackle prospects may project better as IOL. That could push the class to “Good” but we shall see. Same goes for Center with some of the Tackle/Guard prospects beign reviewed as potential Centers (eg, Will Campbell/Grey Zabel)
@alisterlloyd Agree with you on Bozeman.
I would be happy if the Chargers drafted Zabel in the 2nd, but I don’t think he will make it there. Beyond him, i admittedly don’t know much about later C prospects beyond my impression that they aren’t good.
I suspect there are some guard prospects who would be fine, but the Edge/IDL (and TE/WR?) situation makes it seem like drafting a guard wouldn’t occur before day 3. This is a great reason for the Chargers to go out and sign 1-2 starting caliber guards ASAP.
@tau837 Signing Kevin Zeitler and Will Fries tomorrow would leave most feeling a bit better I think.
My prediction is we manage to land Kevin Zeitler and Patrick Mekari. Both have Baltimore connections and Hortiz so far has shown that he values players who’ve played for Greg Roman previously and, in Mekari’s case, players with postion flexibility.
Kyle Juszczyk as the team’s new FB/wing TE would be the cherry on top.
@alisterlloyd Mekari signed with the Jags. Would have loved to sign him, but alas…
@alisterlloyd My biggest question is why make all the moves last year that were necessary to get compliant, make prove it deal signings to fill roster spots and continue to make roster moves to get to 90M in cap space if your intention is to just use it sparingly and not make any big $ moves to improve the team, especially at glaring positions of need and especially to those players who “proved it” in your scheme? Everyone thinks it’s part of a master plan, but remember this is the first time doing this for Hortiz. Last year he was severely limited so his hands were tied to an extent. He continuously made statements about being responsible with this cap space. Maybe he’s a little gun shy first time in the big chair? People gotta remember, even though he was seasoned under Ozzie and Eric, it’s a whole different ballgame when you are the one pulling the strings. He might be more concerned with never having a cap situation like last year than about spending a little extra for players now?
@evolz3737 I get your concern and mostly agree, though most of the reasoning is speculation.
It is the result of the first day of free agency. I’ll wait some time before critiquing too much, although I am dissapointed in losing Poona to $10M per year.
@bolt_dk Exactly. IMO this is what having all that cap space was for. Maybe he was a slight overpay for what you projected, but the guy proved to be great in our defensive scheme. After all a slight overpay would balance out since he just outplayed his one year deal. You got a little more from the first deal and he would have gotten a little more from this one. I have to believe that there might be a decent sized signing or trade they are planning for otherwise why be so vigilant to clear all that space? They could have just kept Bosa and Gus and still had 60M.
@evolz3737 I think they’ll target a DT or 2 in the draft, perhaps one that adds a little more interior pressure. Not overly concerned about not paying him $10M/yr.
@buck-melanoma To add, it may not have been an issue of them not offering Ford enough money. If the Rams approached him and offered to put him on a super bowl team without having to move his family, that would be very hard to turn down. The only way to avoid it would have been to sign him to an extention last season, an again, Ford would have to agree to not test free agency.
I put the Jeffersons gif in there but it didn’t work. I am on an iPad, which is dangerous.
@evolz3737 most likely explanation is the simplest…they had their sights set on guys but weren’t aggressive enough and weren’t the high bidder. Rather than overpaying for their 2nd (or 3rd or 4th) choices, they’re just being patient.
It’s unfortunate that they likely missed their top targets but it is what it is at this point.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t add an edge player until after the draft. DB, LB should be same. I do expect to see them sign a TE, WR, OL and DL but none are likely to be major upgrades over who they’re replacing from last year so the juiciest improvements to the roster will have to be via draft picks.
Will Fries 5/88M shows why we haven’t gone hard after IOL at the price they’re getting paid.
I’ll update the post this afternoon – but just a quick update:
Najee Harris’ deal has a base of $5.25M, with 4M available in performance bonuses. Without knowing exactly what those bonuses are, it’s hard to say how attainable they are, but we’ll likely list $5.25M as his cancelation value until it actually gets calculated next offseason.
Kristian Fulton just signed a 2-Yr, 20M deal with the Chiefs.
We are hovering around 4 picks in the 5th comp round next year, and some picks.
So far, these early overpays have really, really benefitted our compensatory formula.
It’s not the path I would have preferred, but it’s very interesting. I’m not going to be frustrated with Hortiz on Day 2 of free agency… I’m going to assume he’s got a plan in place and is comfortable not getting caught in these crazy bidding wars.
@kylededi Big names will always get paid in Free Agency. If he’s this gun shy about overpays with 90M in cap space, he’s never going to stop shopping at Dollar Tree.
That could very well be the case, but as long as he’s OK with retaining our guys, I’m not going to complain too much.
My biggest concern though is the disparity between our offensive and defensive hit-rates on those one-year deals. Every defensive prove-it contract we gave earned the player a HEAVY bonus, outside of TJ who honestly was a “win” just by coming out of retirement and playing well when needed.
Totally different story on offense, where only JK Dobbins appeared to be a value signing, and Bozeman who received an extension but appears better suited as an upgrade over Will Clapp than the heir to Corey Linsley, if you catch my drift.
I’m not happy, but I’m panicking yet – I honestly do trust in their ability to build for the draft, and if they see FA as an exercise in throwing money down the drain, so be it. I’d prefer that over Tom Telesco spending on 2-4 CFA’s every season that dont finish their contract, never retaining players drafted in Day 3, and lack of trading/smart moves.
@evolz3737 never is a very strong statement, my friend.
Perhaps he and Harbaugh are looking more in the draft and develop direction? And, as you’ve said a few times, see 2026 as the realistic SB push year? Which may mean they want money next year for that premium player or 2 to put them over the top.
I’m just spitballing here. Frankly, we all are since we’re not in the discussions.
@buck-melanoma I get that, but it’s hard to really get where you want with only 2-3 top 100 picks every year and if all goes to plan, they will be picks somewhere in the 20’s. You can’t bank on every mid to late round pick hitting and you are really beholden to the talent available in the draft. Look at the roster as we currently speak. We realistically need a RB,WR1,TE1, C, 2G, 1 or 2 DT, Edge, CB1. We aren’t filling all those needs with 3 top 100 picks and some of the positions might not even have viable talent left at our draft slots. We have no choice but to see how it unfolds, but with the holes created by cuts and one year deals that have yet to be filled with the best talent available, I am starting to feel they may have misplayed their hand so far.
@kylededi Regarding Harris, I assume at least half of those incentives will be Likely To Be Earned (LTBE) and thus his cap number for this year will be $7.25M+. Whatever that amount is including the LTBE incentives, wouldn’t that number be the cancelation value? I’m not certain how that works.
I posted the same though on X, that he’ll probably hit around half of the incentives, but it should still keep him out of the 5th round bucket at 7.5M.
It doesnt actually matter if they are LTBE or NLTBE (I believe you get cap back on LTBE’d bonuses that arent met) as the initial cap figures will just be placeholders until next year. But yes, his final cancelation number will reflect how much he ends up earning on his deal after bonuses are adjusted.
LT shows up to Hortiz’s office in 2025 and in his prime and says I’ll sign for 2 years, $10 mill per. Hortiz, sitting on $90 mill cap space, tells LT he’ll give him 1year, $5 million base, and $4 million in incentives.
Sorry guys, but I’m really frustrated right now. Second day and all quiet on the homefront. Someone joked Hortiz cooked more with negative cap space last year than with $90 million space this year.
@unclejammsarmy We just lost Niemann. If we can’t afford ST players WTF are we doing?
Perhaps the Spanos family has much to do about this. I’m not sure but if they don’t spend the money does it matter to them? NFL is so big and so much money is made win or lose. Something just doesn’t appear right in this situation. If they don’t spend $50M is that money that is in the owners pocket vs. product on the field? Perhaps someone here can explain.
They have to spent 89% of the cap on a 4 year rolling average, and since the cap rolls over year to year, there’s not a reason to pocket cash the way baseball teams do.
This just feels more like Hortiz’s management decisions, where he valued players at, etc.
@lalbolts No. That $ is in escrow only to be used on players. It’s not like if they don’t spend it they can put it back in their pockets.
@evolz3737 Letting Niemann go really feels like a metal rasp in the urethra. Sixth round pick, stellar special teamer, not a total liability when called upon to take snaps. Made about 900k for four years. What more does he need to do in order to be shown some loyalty? Draft, develop, re-sign, right? It’s not like giving him 2.5m/yr is going to prohibit the team from signing other free agents. Related, Hortiz knows he can sign free agents now, doesn’t he? Perhaps someone should let him know.
Didn’t want Hopkins (who can’t get open anymore) anyway.
One of Keenan, Kupp, or Amari will come to us at a good price.
I wanted Devante, but $46M is a lot for two years and Keenan is nearly as good, will be half the price.
@kathmandusteve $46M is not really a lot for 2 years for a player of Adams’ caliber who was one of a few potential difference maker WRs for the Chargers offense this offseason. Two cents.
Gotta agree. Of all the WRs, I was hoping for Devante. It would have made us, potentially, formidable in the passing game once again. It was a risk I wish they would have made, but for one reason or another, it didn’t come to pass. Now we just have to make do.
Despite it not being a “fit” with Ladd on board in the slot, I hope to see Keenan back at a good price. Amari is intriguing as well.
@66_jimbo Would feel good about that signing… acknowledging that I just want something to feel good about.
If he signs with the Broncos I’m just gonna turn off my phone and read a self-help book.
“If he signs with the Broncos I’m just gonna turn off my phone and read a self-help book.”
Same but for a much different reason. This place is starting to feel like a BFTB game day thread.
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