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Updated incoming and outgoing FAs
Outgoing FAs and cuts
Bosa
Fulton
Ford
Niemann
Palmer
Edwards
Smartt
Our FAs who do not appear to be coming back:
ASJ
Hurst
Dobbins
Chark
incoming FAs (not including our re-signs because they were here last year)
Harris
Jackson
St. Just
MWill
Hand
Jones
The re-signs are not included in the list because I want to compare last years team and the players lost in FA or cut with the new FAs signed.
Please let me know who I’m missing. My goal is not to duplicate KyleD’s great work on cancelling comp picks. I’m just trying to look at a very general level players going out and players coming in thru this FA period.
@unclejammsarmy It appears the team is going to go into the draft close to status quo to last year.
Bosa is the only player that hasn’t really been replaced yet but he wasn’t the beast he used to be anyways. I assume his snaps will be replaced by either a rookie or there’s still some vet pass rushers out there that could be signed. Despite the nostalgia, I’m not sure that will end up being much of a downgrade overall. I expect this position group to end up similar to last year.
I don’t think Hand will be as good as Poona be he is serviceable but I think Jones could easily be better than Fox. Fox played a lot of snaps and was kind of mediocre last year. If they hit on a good rookie, I think this position group could be better overall, but that’s of course a big “IF”.
At this point, the biggest potential upgrade to come via free agency would be a guard.
Beyond that, any roster improvements will have to come from hitting on picks in the draft.
They will also need some of last year’s rookies (like Colston and Eboigbe) to step up and take on larger roles as well.
@unclejammsarmy Patriots release center David Andrews. Recovering and MAY retire…..
Here’s a quick update on the cancellation chart with estimates on the APY’s, given the “up-to” verbiage.
Our comp picks are basically wiped out right now, but we’ll quickly restore back to 3-4 picks when Heinicke, Fox, ASJ, and Dobbins sign. Right now the cheap guys we’ve brought in are being cancelled out by our higher priced exits because we haven’t had lower, qualified departures yet.
@kylededi The Chargers should sign Heinicke IMO. What is the alternative, Stick back to QB2? No thanks. I’m fine with Stick as QB3, especially if on the practice squad, but, please, not QB2 again.
@tau837 I was thinking Gardner Minshew. Should cost right around what Heinicke would, no comp pick loss.
I think Minshew was a massive overpay last year and he won’t get near that deal again, probably looking in the 5-8M range max.
@unclejammsarmy Didn’t see that, what a bummer… would have enjoyed having him and made sense from the comp pick perspective.
Hortiz swapped Taylor for Gardner would have been the ultimate dedication to company picks dictating everything
@kylededi I would rather have Heinicke and the continuity in the QB room. How high of a pick is Heinicke really likely to earn?
As it stands right now, we have a bunch of lower-value signings canceling out our 5th rounders (unless Mike’s base pay is below $3M).
I would think Heinicke would sign in the 6th round range, but would “save” one of our 5th rounders from being cancelled out from a 6th round signing.
@kylededi There are still a lot of FA backup QBs out there so doesn’t seem like there’s much urgency here. Maybe Heinicke is the best of them, but there are other options I’d be fine with and probably cheaper too.
@alisterlloyd Do you think these additions lower the chances of IDL being a target in Rd1? Do you think the plan would be to bolster the roster with some one year deals and finally add a mainstay to the IDL in Rd1/2?
@evolz3737 I’ve been playing around with the simulator (which you have to take with a grain of salt) but I’ve been continually seeing some solid options remaining for IDL by pick 55, whereas the IOL drops off more. There’s still mid-round candidates of course, but the dropoff has seemed more steep. That may just be the rankings in the simulator though.
I keep seeing RBs I’d be happy with in the 3rd/4th, as well as late round CBs that are intriguing to me.
Nothing at TE or Edge after the 3rd round.
Will be interesting to see if they sign a legitimate Guard before the draft…I think that may tip their hand. I can’t imagine they’re happy going into the season with the same OL as last season and if they wait until the 3rd or 4th round to draft IOL, then while they may get a good prospect, there’s no guarantee that guy will immediately be an upgrade over Pipkins/Salyer/Bozeman.
If they do make a guard signing before the draft, that probably leaves it more open at #22 to IDL, Edge or TE.
@evolz3737 Rd 1? Maybe it lowers them a little. But it also depends what happens between now and the Draft. If IOL, TE, WR, Edge aren’t addressed at all between now and then I would find it unlikely that they attack DT in Rnd 1 now.
I still think they need a monster in the DT room though that’s currently lacking. I’ve just finished watching Kenneth Grant. I liked him but maybe not on the same level as some others. I saw him more as a later Day 1, early Day 2 guy, and I liked Derrick Harmon (Oregon) slightly better. Maybe I just prefer 3-techs though.
Here were my notes for Kenneth Grant:
- 21.3 yo, 6’4”, 331 pounds, 33 1/2” arms
- Three seasons. 41 games. 8 sacks.
- 2023 National Champion
- 2024 Stats:
- 12 games, 3 sacks, 1 hit, 23 hurries (547 snaps)
- 83.7 Overall Grade
- 75.3 Pass Rush Grade
- 87.5 Run Defense Grade
- 9.4% Pass Rush Win Rate
- 7.9% Run-Stop Rate
- 5.9% Missed Tackle Rate (5.5% for Career)
- 2025 Combine:
- 22 Bench Press Reps (9th of 9)
- Didn’t do other drills due to minor hamstring issue
- Watched games v Ohio State (2023), Alabama (2023, Rose Bowl), Washington (2023, National Title Game), Illinois (2024), USC (2024), Boise State (2024), and Texas (2024)
- Massive interior defender with surprisingly good movement skills and ability to play Nose or 3-Tech. Not really a pure two-gaper in his playing style. Surprisingly, plays more like a finesse player and I would have rather seen him show more as a “bulldozer”. Lacks a signature strength as a result. Good player though. Dominated v USC.
- As a pass rusher:
- First-step quickness belies size. Bendy enough to be used on loops, but he’s not difficult to evade for an agile QB. Fluid for a massive human though.
- Strong hands to dislodge initial punch from OL. Second phase of pass rush is less impressive if he’s beaten early – struggles to counter and can get stuck to the block.
- Can collapse the pocket with his bull rush. Not just a pocket pusher. Doesn’t finish plays as much as you’d like to see though. Core strength is a work in progress and can get knocked off balance.
- Decent ball awareness. Can get his hands up to bat passes.
- Doesn’t finish plays often. But stamina is impressive. Doesn’t fatigue over the course of the game like other big DTs. High-effort player.
- As a run defender:
- More often than not he holds his gap and force runs elsewhere.
- Splash plays/TFLs are there on tape but only occasionally. Wins with a swim off the snap.
- Lateral movement limitations are noticeable and his high frame/long arms lead to some difficulties taking on angle blocks or shaking off linemen in zone to tackle the RB. Not quite the run game disruptor I was expecting to see on tape. He can get moved especially by double teams.
- Height hinders his ability to win the leverage battle consistently.
- He’s no T’Vondre Sweat but will upgrade your Run Defense during his rookie contract.
Team signs LB Del’Shawn Phillips. Looks like a ST player. Don’t know terms or length of deal, but just taking a wild guess, I’m gonna say it’s a 1-year deal below the comp pick formula.
@unclejammsarmy Yep good call. He was with the Ravens for two years while Hortiz was there. This gives them 5 LBers on the roster with a good mix of youth/experience.
Updated incoming and outgoing FAs
Outgoing FAs and cuts
Bosa
Fulton
Ford
Niemann
Palmer
Edwards
Smartt
Fehoko
Fox
Our FAs who do not appear to be coming back:
ASJ
Hurst
Dobbins
Chark
incoming FAs (not including our re-signs because they were here last year)
Harris
Jackson
St. Just
MWill
Hand
Jones
Phillips
The re-signs are not included in the list because I want to compare last years team and the players lost in FA or cut with the new FAs signed.
Please let me know who I’m missing. My goal is not to duplicate KyleD’s great work on cancelling comp picks. I’m just trying to look at a very general level players going out and players coming in thru this FA period.
@unclejammsarmy There a handful of other FAs who played for the Bolts last year but are very unlikely to warrant a comp pick. They are:
Fehoko, Hurst, Sarell (RFA), Rumph, Quarterman, Apple, Jefferson, and Maye.
Again, no comp picks coming with these guys, but the completist in me wanted to go look it up
@smith I’m not looking at the incoming and outgoing players from a cap formula perspective. KyleD is doing that job better than I could ever do. I’m just looking at the players from last year’s team signing elsewhere and new players being added.
FA strategy
I was thinking about comp picks and decided to look at the Ravens’ comp picks over the past 5 seasons. I believe this is the list:
- 2024
- 4.35 (135) – traded with Morgan Moses to Jets for picks 113 and 218, and drafted WR Devontez Walker and QB Devin Leary
- Jury is out on Walker
- Leary is unlikely to ever amount to anything
- 4.35 (135) – traded with Morgan Moses to Jets for picks 113 and 218, and drafted WR Devontez Walker and QB Devin Leary
- 2023
- None
- 2022
- 3.36 (100) – traded with Marquis Brown to ARI for 1.23, then traded down to 1.25 plus pick 130, and drafted C Tyler Linderbaum and P Jordan Stout, respectively
- 4.34 (139) – TE Isaiah Likely, Coastal Carolina
- 4.36 (141) – CB Damarion Williams, Houston
- 2021
- 3.40 (104) – CB Brandon Stephens, SMU
- 5.40 (184) – FB Ben Mason, Michigan
- 2020
- 3.42 (106) – T Tyre Phillips
- 4.37 (143) – G Ben Bredeson, Michigan
That is 8 comp picks over the past 5 drafts. Turned into 3 really good or better players (bolded), although one of them was the result of a trade with the comp pick as an ancillary piece. That is a nice hit rate. It helps to justify the comp pick mindset, at least for organizations that tend to draft well.
The fact that 2 of these 8 picks were involved in trades also illustrates the trade flexibility that comes with accumulating comp picks.
All in all, I like the focus on this. I’m still somewhat concerned that focusing on this in an offseason with $90M+ in cap space to spend makes sense to the degree that it appears Hortiz focused on it.
@tau837 how do you feel about whiffing on the released players, who do not factor into the comp pick formula? Of course, we don’t know which of these players the team pursued or the offers made to them (other than an offer to Engram was close to DEN’s offer).
@unclejammsarmy I’m not sure I know who you talking about. Are you generalizing all released players into one group and questioning why the Chargers didn’t sign more of them? If so, I think it is likely I would have signed more than the Chargers did. But I recognize I am an amateur here, and Hortiz is playing 3D chess compared to me.
@tau837 yes, the entire pool of released players. I mean, I know it’s foolish and unrealistic to pursue all of them, as not all of them fit a need, but we signed a few last year with nearly no cap space. I’m just surprised this is an avenue for Hortiz to pursue without affecting accumulation of draft capital and he hasn’t hit on any.
@tau837 Tau, I think it’s OK for us to have an opinion. True, we aren’t Hortiz, but I think we are diehard fans that have at least rudimentary understanding of the cap and roster building to at least give thoughtful
@evolz3737 Of course. I probably have more uninformed/speculative opinions than most around here…
Mekhi Becton is a Bolt!!! Finally an IOL signing!
People were talking like this wasn’t gonna happen. Fits our big boy line and hopefully continues his form. Also only 25. If he does well we can lock him down for a long time.
@laughing_boy local kid, came outta Highland Springs HS in Richmond VA.
Good signing. He’s a maulers.
Hit the bench, Pipkins.
@buck-melanoma I watched him a ton with the Jets. He is definitely not an OT. I mean I guess he can play there in a pinch, but he seems to have settled into OG nicely. He has a bit of Bosa in him as far as injuries. That’s his biggest battle. Can you imagine him next to Alt? Herbert might not be able to see over the right side of the line 
Brandon Scherrf still out there…estimated $6M/year. Would sure be nice to double dip here….
@66_jimbo I think this sets up nicely for a draft pick. Even if it’s someone that can be depth for a year before becoming a starter. At this point keep Pipkins. We don’t need the space and with the dearth of OL talent in the league he might get a hefty contract in FA next year netting us a nice comp pick.
@evolz3737 Will be interesting to see what happens with Pipkins. He’s a below-average starter with position flexibility. Given that profile, I think I would rather keep Salyer who is better than Pipkins at both G and T.
If I had to guess the OL for 2025:
- LT: Slater
- LG: Zion
- C: Draft pick/FA (better not be Bozeman)
- RG: Becton
- RT: Alt
- Swing T: Tyler McLellan – Looked dominant last pre-season before blowing out his knee. 6’8″, 355 LBs AND light feet. Would love to see what a jumbo package looks like with Becton, Alt and McLellan lined up on the right side
- G/T: Salyer
- G/C: Bozeman
- G/T: Draft pick/FA or Pipkins
@kevdiego If I had to guess:
- LT Slater
- LG Zion
- C Bozeman
- RG Becton
- RT Alt
- Swing T Pipkins
- Backup G/T Salyer
- Backup G Rookie draft pick (Miles Frazier?)
- Backup C Rookie draft pick (Jake Majors?)
I’m not advocating to keep Pipkins, but I’m guessing that at this point that is what the team will do due to their philosophy (remember Harbaugh saying he would have all tackles if he could). I also think they probably feel like their OL depth was not strong enough last season.
While his cap hit is expensive for a depth player, having Pipkins on the bench with Salyer definitely upgrades the OL depth. Both of them have a lot of starts at both at tackle and guard.
At this point, given they apparently are not going to spend all of their cap space, this isn’t the worst outcome IMO.
@tau837 Agreed. I think this will be what the OL room looks like with possibly Bozeman being a backup to a rookie if we take one high enough.
This is probably more realistic. More than anything, having Bozeman back at C is a major failure. In the film I watched, the guy rarely got beat physically. Where he lost was in setting the protections and picking up stunts. The center needs to be the leader of the OL. I think much of Zion’s struggles were a result of Bozeman being bad at at the mental aspect of his job.
I am super-excited about the Becton signing. I know there was a ton of clamoring for one of the big WR FAs. While it might have been fun to watch Herbert throw to Adams, this Chargers team needed to upgrade the OL and specifically RG and C. RG is done. Now they need to fix C.
Don’t sleep on McLellan. Dude is everything this team wants to be.
@kevdiego You have a real man crush on McLellan. I don’t see it.
He played at Campbell (FCS) in college. Not great preparation for NFL competition. He did not play well in limited exposure to P5 college competition.
His RAS is terrible. Poor scores for everything but size — bench, vertical, broad, shuttle, 3-cone. So… strength poor, agility poor, explosion poor. Also, his arms are short. There is nothing to like there at all.
I don’t believe he is capable of stepping into a heavy snaps role in the event of injuries and performing at close to an acceptable level, and I don’t think the Chargers should keep him on the roster just to line him up occasionally at TE beside Alt in a jumbo package.
It would be great if he proves me wrong, but that would surprise me a lot.
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