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Hey Stormcloud!
Missing Chargers football? Tired of Chiefs/Refs talk and hate the Pro Bowl?
Well instead #BoltFam, this Saturday 1 Feb (3pm PST/6pm EST) come join our End of Season 2024 Roundtable: our first ever YouTube Live show!
You’ll be able to interact with us live in the comments, and ask us anything you want about the season that’s been and/or the upcoming offseason.
We have @kylededi and @ryanwatkins joining us with lots of fun stuff planned. We can’t wait 😀
The link to the show is here: https://www.youtube.com/live/JUzZz33F1Dw
Don’t miss it! #TDU
@tau837, I see you’ve written a couple of banging articles on BFTB in the past week while I’ve mostly been offline.
I’ll read through them and let you know my thoughts either on this Saturday’s show or during our free agency show in late-Feb/early-March.
@tau837 I’ve read both of your articles. Really strong work as per usual:
- I hope you continue to write articles like them each year. I know it can be dispiriting when not many people engage directly, but I face those same issues with TDU each week (hours of prep and sometimes low view count) and Ryan W does too with some of the in-depth articles he writes here on Stormcloud. The one he just wrote on Greg Roman’s scheme would’ve taken a week or more to prepare and who knows if people will comment! Ultimately, you need to do it for the love of the process, and I bet many people out there read your articles, enjoy them, but find it difficult to leap into the conversation because so much is covered. Your annual articles are critical to my offseason prep and stimulate a lot of thinking. Without them, my analysis and TDU’s generally would be much poorer for it. Please keep doing what you do!
- You’re going to have to listen to TDU to hear some of my thoughts on specific free agent targets and general offseason planning over the next couple of months. My notes and thinking are not yet fully developed. For example, on the Tee Higgins question I’ve jotted down these notes:
- The Chargers need an “X” to complement Ladd McConkey but should the team should stay away from Tee Higgins in free agency?
- He’s an ideal fit for the “X” player the team is missing but it’s a WR class with some decent options (Elic Ayomanor Stanford, Savion Wiliams TCU, Jayden Higgins Iowa State, Jack Bech TCU, Tre Harris Ole Miss).
- Higgins will likely require a contract close to $30m apy (cf, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, Amon-Ra St.Brown, Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk). I generally don’t like handing out “Top 5” contracts for players who you are hoping become that but haven’t shown it yet.
- Just turned 26yo which is great:
- 5 seasons, 4,595 yds, 34 TDs. (< 1,000 yds per year). Good player. Great player though?
- 2024: 73 catches, 911 yds, 10 TDs
- Hamstring injuries (missed Wks 1-2 in 2024, missed a game in 2023). Also missed 3 games this year with a quad injury.
- There is risk and reward. The production does not quite justify the contract even if I could see him being excellent with Herbert in this Offense. But does it matter with the cap increasing and plenty of cap space?
- DK Metcalf potentially a better target if he’s happy to play out the final year of his deal without a contract (like Diggs did in Houston?). Downside is you give up capital in the trade with Seattle.
- The Chargers need an “X” to complement Ladd McConkey but should the team should stay away from Tee Higgins in free agency?
- Hopefully I’ll see you on the Live Stream tomorrow!
@alisterlloyd Hey Alister, thanks for the encouragement in your first bullet. I just wrote that one post out of frustration. I enjoy writing posts when I can, and I expect I will continue as time permits.
I don’t expect to be on your livestream but look forward to hearing your thoughts on the podcasts.
Good comments on Higgins. Without getting into the individual points, I think these are very important considerations:
1. There is immense value in pairing a 26 year old legit WR1 caliber X (even if not a top 5 WR commensurate with possible contract) with McConkey beginning in 2025. To have Higgins and McConkey locked up as WR 1/2 for no less than 3 consecutive seasons under what will likely be a consistent coaching staff is huge, both on the playing field, and for Hortiz because it removes any need to use premium draft capital on the WR position for at least 3 years, beginning with this year’s draft.
2. Which brings me to my next point. The Chargers have some real needs that likely are best served by using premium draft capital, most notably Edge 1/2 and TE1.
I suppose Edge 1/2 could be solved in free agency, but it seems much preferable to use a 1st round pick on a young Edge rusher to inject high talent with relatively low rookie contract into that position group for the next 4 years. For TE, I’m not terribly impressed with free agent options and think it makes sense to draft a premium rookie TE early. I could even see trading up for a second first round pick to draft both an Edge and TE in the first. This year, trading up may be much more viable than it ever was when Telesco did it, thanks to my third point below.
And I haven’t even mentioned CB, which is another premium position that may be best solved with an early draft pick if the top picks weren’t going to be used at Edge and TE.
My point here is that I’m not sure they can afford to use a premium pick at WR. If they want to use a later round pick on WR, that’s fine and likely desirable to find a WR4 caliber player to slot in ahead of Davis/Rice, but IMO that seems unlikely to solve the top need at the position, which is to acquire a legit long term WR 1/2 X.
3. Finally, the Chargers have never been in the situation they find themselves in, with so much cap space combined with 10 draft picks. Even if we assume the Chargers only get 3 starters out of the draft, that is still 3 offense/defense starter positions upgraded. With the cap space they have, they can easily sign 3 premium free agents while still also having enough space to fill out the roster… this puts them in position to upgrade 6 or so starting positions on offense/defense, which would be huge, especially if they generally maintain performance for the rest of those units.
My posts propose one way to do that and still left $11M in cap space unused on top of the allocation to in-season spending, which itself reserved $6M for contingencies that may not be required… so $17M technically unallocated. That is enough for at least 3 additional upgrades beyond what I wrote in those posts. Now we are talking up to 9 offense/defense positions upgraded. On a team that went 11-6. Now we are talking division contender.
Part of the point here is that, in this situation, it is appropriate to spend big. It is even appropriate to overpay for performance, provided the performance obtained is good. If they have to sign Higgins to a top 5 WR contract, they don’t need to get top 5 WR performance, they merely need to get legit WR1 performance, and there is every reason to believe he would deliver exactly that. And note that legit WR1 performance doesn’t have to mean 1400 yards and 12 TDs. It isn’t about stats, it is about quality play. He probably won’t get the same number of targets in the Chargers offense as he got in the Bengals offense, simply because the Chargers won’t pass as often. That does not undermine the value he would bring in unlocking the passing game (along with a legit TE1 and better IOL play).
Same exact logic applies to signing Trey Smith.
I have had some exchanges with Erick about spending responsibly. I agree wholeheartedly with being responsible. I wrote in my posts that the team should use this year’s cap space wisely in their free agent signings to resist the urge to backload contracts too much and create future cap challenges. But when you have ~$100M to spend, it is possible to be both a big spender and a responsible spender. I take it as a given that Hortiz will be the latter, I just hope he will also be the former.
More on Higgins. I’ve already posted some of this but can’t resist repeating myself… he is perfect for what the Chargers need because:
- Top shelf X WR, a need
- Excellent in red zone, a need
- Excellent against man coverage, a need (also excellent against zone, which is also great, but not as much of a need for the Chargers)
- Restores the Mike Williams style target (i.e., a tall player who can win contested catches, especially outside downfield)… a “rich man’s” Mike Williams IMO
- Age suggests that he will be in his prime for most/all of his contract, a rarity for a premium free agent… IMO this mitigates some of the injury risk he might carry (as does getting him with Ben Herbert, in theory)
I don’t think there is any other WR available in free agency or the draft who checks all of these boxes, at least not unless the Chargers use their first round pick on the best WR available, and that player hits big.
IMO these are all reasons why it is okay to give him the contract he will require even if it is a bit of an overpay.
Damn….I’m outta town. 😑
@alisterlloyd Thanks Alister! No plans yet but I’ll be over (under?) your way sometime in the next year or so I hope.
I will be there!!! Drinks in hand!!
Can’t be there but perhaps a topic for discussion?
Couldn’t join live, but enjoyed watching tonight.
Loved the best takes draft.
I agree with takes 1, 3, 5, 6, and 11 for sure.
As Al predicted, I don’t agree with his first take (take #2).
Running with Herbert 10 times per game = 170 rushes for the regular season. I hope Al was just being hyperbolic with that number. The most QB runs in the regular season in 2024 was 150 for Hurts in 15 games, so exactly 10 per game. Next highest was Daniels at 8.7 per game. The most designed runs in the regular season was 112 for Hurts in 15 games (7.5 per game). Next highest was Jackson at 5.9 per game. As it was, Herbert was #9 in QB runs in 2024.
Aside from that, while Herbert is a great athlete, I don’t think he has the same upside running designed QB runs as players like Jackson, Daniels, Richardson, Hurts, or Allen. I think the Chargers are likely to get better results (more yards, first downs, TDs) from 5 Herbert passes than 5 Herbert designed runs.
Herbert also has dealt with 7 distinct non-trivial injuries over the past 3 years. He is more likely to get hit on runs than dropbacks when he doesn’t scramble. I don’t think getting him hit more often is a good idea.
A few more runs would be fine, just to put it on film and make opposing defenses prepare for it and think about it. But just a few.
I definitely disagree with Kyle’s take #4, and Andy immediately nailed the reason. Hortiz’s biggest mistake to date was not acquiring a starting caliber center in the 2024 draft. IMO it is not close, there is a massive gap between that and whatever might be #2. It may have been the deepest center draft in NFL history, and the Chargers didn’t get one. Now they are left with no quality center, for the moment.
I disagree with Ryan’s take #13 (shown in Jack’s misnumbering as #14 😊 ). I don’t like the idea of trading for Metcalf, because it requires non-trivial draft capital in the trade and a top of market contract extension. IMO signing Higgins is so much better… I think he is clearly a better player and would require no draft capital, while contracts would likely be similar enough. So, naturally, I disagree with Ryan saying he prefers to trade for Metcalf over signing Higgins in the red light green light segment.
Kyle seemed to give his last take simply to put out the hottest take of the game. I don’t really agree with it, but it also doesn’t really matter. There will be no need to ever make a choice between Harbaugh and Herbert.
I don’t agree with all of the other best takes but none moved me enough to comment.
Red light, green light was good. I felt like I agreed with most of the responses, including Erick’s that popped up on the screen. In fact, I probably agreed more often with Erick’s comments than with any of the hosts. 😊
As for the question about signing Allen, IMO it would be fine if he would sign for a low enough price. I think that is unlikely, so IMO that would be the reason not to do it. If his price was reasonable, imagine a WR corps like this:
- WR1a (X) Higgins
- WR1b (slot) McConkey
- WR3a (Z/slot) Allen
- WR3b (X/Z) Johnston
- WR5/6 Davis + Rice/TBD
Allen could certainly provide some useful mentoring to McConkey, Johnston, and even Higgins. He could be the 3rd WR on the field on 3rd downs instead of Johnston… is there anyone here who prefers Johnston? Furthermore, can you imagine how effective Allen would be with the defense having to devote most of its talent/attention to Higgins and McConkey?
And, of course, Allen is already an all-time great Charger, so for him to come back would be great.
I admit I am biased in favor of Allen, and, like I said, I don’t think it will happen.
I guessed 50M on the population question. 😊
@tau837 Very fair comments, Brian and glad you enjoyed the show.
It was the following Greg Roman-related data that got me thinking about Herbert’s utilisation as a runner:
- Ravens 2019 – 196 QB rush attempts (#1 in Points Scored)
- Ravens 2020 – 184 QB rush attempts (#7)
- Ravens 2021 – 133 QB rush attempts (#17)
- Ravens 2022 – 111 QB rush attempts (#19)
- Chargers 2024 – 69 QB rush attempts (#11)
I think it’s fair at this point to doubt whether, schematically, Roman has a passing game that can get this team to a Super Bowl. Maybe it will look different with an injection of talent at TE and WR1/2 next season. But where the more innovative OCs use “dirty bunch sets” (Bills), insert their skill players in motion through the A/B Gaps” (Lions/Rams), run RPOs with Rubs (Chiefs) and use trick plays (Lions) to spring receivers open, Greg Roman seems comfortable living in an older school world of mirrored route concepts (ie, same concept on either side of the field), static routes and believes in sending fewer players out on routes (with the rest in pass protection). I think those tendencies place him in the bottom half of passing game coordinators in the league. Luckily, they have Herbert who makes wine from water more often than not.
Conversely, the Eagles, Ravens and Bills are all teams that believe strongly in running the ball but also use the QB as an adjunct to catapult that part of the Offense towards elite territory. I take the point that Herbert has a different build to those QBs. But to win a Super Bowl with Greg Roman as OC, at a minimum, I think we need to see “a few more runs” from Herbert during the regular season; and in the playoffs? I’d weaponise him on the ground even more. Again, this is merely said because of Greg Roman’s passing game deficiencies. I think the Chargers are likely to get better results passing with Herbert generally speaking. But I don’t think they’ll win an AFC Title Game or contend for a Super Bowl with Greg Roman without leaning into that part of Herbert’s game more than they are currently doing.
@alisterlloyd This again brings into question whether Roman is right for the job? Good coaches utilize what they have and create a scheme/game plan around that. They don’t pigeon hole players to fit their scheme. Are we really sure Herbert is comfortable running that much? We know he can do it, but he’s been beaten up the last few years so maybe he’s not keen on it as a staple of the offense? Taking off in a scramble is different than a designed run because that is totally his decision to do it.
Your point here only fuels the fire for those who already have little faith going forward. He has an elite passer but his scheme is more suitable to a running QB which does not utilize Herbert’s talent properly. Again, he coaches to what he wants, not what he has, which is why I am still not convinced he is the right OC for Herbert, unless we see his scheme adjusted next season.
@evolz3737 I’m not convinced he is the right OC for Herbert, Erick. But I’m convinced that I want to see what it looks like this season with better talent instead of asking Herbert to learn yet another system. As Tau says below, I feel confident that with better talent the Offense will score more points and be more efficient than they were this season (regardless of if Herbert is asked to run). If the Defense can be Top 5, it’s going to give the team a chance to win games in January. How many? With Greg Roman calling the Offense, that is the question.
@alisterlloyd Agreed. We really have no choice but to hope that having more players suited to his style of offense, gets the desired results. The one caveat is that keeping him and hoping for better results, just lends the team to possibly having to reset at OC in year 3 or 4 or Harbaugh after the roster was tailored for his scheme.
@evolz3737 @alisterlloyd these misgivings are why I question how Roman will use a TE1 in LA. Yes, I see his historical use/production. No, I’m not saying forego drafting a TE1. It’s a “show me” situation with Roman and my skepticism isn’t changing until he does.
@alisterlloyd This is probably obvious, but IMO there is much more to it than QB rushing attempts. Jackson’s rush attempts per game:
- 2019: 11.7
- 2020: 10.6
- 2021: 11.9 (excluding his final game when he was injured early)
- 2022: 10.1 (excluding his final game when he was injured early)
Jackson missed 5 regular season games in 2021 and 2022, and he effectively missed a 6th in each season, since he got hurt early in his final game in both seasons. That context seems very important to the conclusion you have taken from the data you posted.
I have proposed in recent posts that the Chargers do the following on offense:
- Sign WR Higgins, G Smith, C Kelly
- Re-sign RB Dobbins, depth IOL Bozeman, TE 3/4 Smartt, TE 3/4 Fisk, depth T Sarell
- Draft 1st/2nd round TE in a draft with multiple premium TEs, 3rd/4th round RB in a deep RB draft
Whether or not they make this exact group of moves, I am hoping they will aggressively address IOL, WR, TE, and RB upgrades. They have the cap space and draft capital to do so.
If they do, I feel confident that Roman’s offense will perform much better and score a lot more points, regardless of how many times they design runs for Herbert.
@tau837 That’s important context which almost certainly invalidates the correlation I’ve suggested between rush attempts and points scored. I missed it and shouldn’t have. Baltimore finishing lower in points scored from 2021-2022 must be because of Lamar’s injuries.
Nevertheless, I think it’s interesting to compare Herbert’s total rush attempts this season with that Baltimore Offense from 2019-2020 when it was amongst the League’s best and then reflect on how best to bring Greg Roman’s skills to bear as a coordinator:
- As a pass game architect, my favourite things about Roman’s scheme are his use of motion and the play action game. His play action game (unlike the Shanahan tree) prioritises pass protection and sends fewer players out on routes. This is good because it gives Herbert a chance to get the ball off. This is bad because if the 2-3 routes are covered the result is often an incompletion or sack and RBs are under-utilised too. Roman’s dropback passing game is my least favourite thing about the Offense. It’s stale and easier to defend than other schemes.
- When Defeses play two-high safeties against the Chargers on early downs, by involving Herbert in the running game you end up with a numbers advantage and a chance to exploit the Defense until it adjusts. I’m surprised Roman didn’t pivot to this against the Texans. There are two teams who do this very well:
- The Eagles:
- The Ravens:
- Herbert is 6’6″ and not as agile as Lamar (or Hurts). So it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison. But this year, Roman’s Rush Attack was generally a disappointment. One way to fix that is through OL, RB and TE upgrades. But if we can sprinkle in more pistol, read-option, QB Power, QB Counter, I believe this will help offset some of the predictability of the Offense. It should also mean that, if another playoff team copies what the Texans did against us (playing Quarters on early downs, middle of the field closed/man on third downs), Roman’s failures in the dropback passing scheme are less likely to be exploited.
I feel confident, as you do, that by making a group of sensible moves this offseason, the Offense will perform much better as a whole regardless of how many times they design runs for Herbert. Paired with a Top 5 Defense, it could be enough to get to a Super Bowl.
But adding the QB run game would give me greater confidence that the team can go all the way, even if the Defense isn’t elite, and even if it comes with some injury risk to Herbert.
@alisterlloyd I think the way to “run” Herbert is with an eye towards the passing game. Bootleg style scrambles or attacking Man coverage by running into the void created by the routes, etc where its both harder to square him up and he can get out of bounds, slide etc.
I think that also describes the way that Brady would scramble in such a way that it was clear that if the Defense wasn’t going to defend it, he’d attack it so that it would open other areas up. Since Justin is more athletic, the threat of him sprinting out to his right only to throw pop passes to Ladd, TE1 is one of those plays that should be in the play-book.
While a different subject, I think this off-season for Justin has to be about getting his Doctorate in QB’ing, from cadences to things like knowing when to run against certain looks. To that end, having Harbaugh get Justin together with others like Andrew Luck to watch film, talk ball would be beneficial for him because to stand out in the Playoffs, Brady and Mahomes have shown its more about aptitude than athleticism.
@duck07 We saw the QB scrambling become a part of Herbert’s game this year (particularly against Man with defensive backs turned) and I hope that continues to be a feature of his game. All the best QBs do it, and it’s high-time Herbert joined the party.
The bootleg style of scrambling works nicely – I agree, but I just don’t think Roman’s boot action section of the playbook is anywhere near as extensive as, say, any of the Shanahan tree coordinators. I think Roman gets the most out of his QB run game using pistol and/or traditional shotgun formations, having his QB either keep or pull the ball at the mesh point while watching the Defense, and occasionally using designed runs through gap scheme (Power/Counter). When it works well, it can springboard runs for the RB too as the LB can be late to the party watching the mesh point.
However, they choose to approach it, I want Herbert’s legs to continue to be an important feature of the Offense, and especially in the biggest regular season games or playoff games when the season’s on the line.
I also agree with you about the QB doctorate comment. Hopefully his thesis is “Countering Well-Timed Blitzes” because Spags continues to bamboozle the AFC with them!
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