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Since we had a lot of discussion in the offseason about the value of Davis on the 53 man roster and active gameday rosters, I thought I would track his contributions this season.
Week 1:
- Offense: 7 snaps
- Rushing: 2 rushing attempts for 9 yards, 0 first downs, 0 TDs, long rush of 6 yards, 0 missed tackles forced
- Both rushing attempts on 1st and 10
- Receiving: 5 routes, 0 targets
- PFF grade (offense) 53.5
- Rushing: 2 rushing attempts for 9 yards, 0 first downs, 0 TDs, long rush of 6 yards, 0 missed tackles forced
- Kickoff returns:
- 1 return for 35 yards; fielded at 1 yard line, so Chargers took over at 36 — good play
- PFF grade 62.9
- Punt returns: 4 punts fielded; 3 fair catches; 1 return for 9 yards, but:
- A 59 yard punt that outkicked the coverage, so getting 9 yards was easy
- More importantly, fielded at the 1 yard line, so Chargers took over at 10 yard line — bad decision and bad outcome
- PFF grade 62.0
Nice one. It will be interesting to track his utilisation over the season and whether it’s match-up specific.
Ideally, it would be good if there was a way for you to track the success rate of the Offense for the snaps when he’s on the field. Because when he’s running clear outs, for example, he might not have been targeted, but he could have drawn the coverage resulting in a completion elsewhere. Similarly, as the motion man in the run game, he might be the window dressing on a play that springs open something up the middle. None of that will show up in the metrics you’ve laid out. But there’s no easy way to track it.
Just for example, it was a fake orbit screen to Derius Davis that set up the 27 yard completion to Hayden Hurst in Q3. Pretty big play in the game and the Defense bit on it. Not sure if this exercise is very useful if it’s going to miss important context like that.
@alisterlloyd I know the play you mention here, but I have no reason to believe that Davis was the primary reason that fake worked and led to the big completion. It is just as likely that they could have faked that to any number of players (e.g., McConkey, Palmer, QJ, heck, maybe Dobbins) and achieved the same result. IMO that fake was more about Herbert selling it with his body language and eyes than Davis.
I agree that it would be ideal to have perfect, unlimited data that enabled us to identify impact on plays from mere presence on the field, even if not targeted or touching the ball. As you point out, we don’t have that level of data, at least not to my knowledge. But IMO it is likely true that a single skill player not targeted or touching the ball on a play very rarely has a disproportinately significant impact on the play compared to other players.
Take the Hurst completion you mentioned. The OL had to hold up for Herbert. Herbert had to sell the fake and make the pass. Hurst had to sell the fake, run the route, and catch the ball. Other than Davis, there were 3 other players on the field the defense had to account for. Then there is the quality of the defense to account for. And the quality of the offensive playcalling. If we try to dole out credit(/blame) to all involved participants for the yards gained on that play, Davis would probably get very little… a yard? I guess it depends on whether you think of it as a zero sum game, i.e., it was a 27 yard gain, so let’s dole out credit/responsibility that adds up to 27 yards, or if you can give more than 100% total credit to those involved. Intuitively, I would lean towards zero sum game…
@tau837 I’m a bit out of my depth at this part of the analysis, but if they thought faking that play to other players would’ve worked as well, I ask why they brought Derius Davis onto the field to call it. Is it something about the threat of 4.30 speed that allows it work optimally? Coaches pay lip service to speed fairly frequently so I couldn’t say with confidence that Herbert selling it with his body language is what made it work. Had he been selling that same fake to Scott Matlock, for example, I don’t know if it would have worked (but that’s an extreme example)😆
Anyway, let’s see what your exercise uncovers, and when I watch the All-22 each week, I can try point out any additional intangible elements I think Derius Davis contributed. @ryanwatkins might be better placed than me to do so.
@alisterlloyd I take your point, but consider 40 times, which are obviously not in pads:
- Davis 4.36 (not 4.30)
- McConkey 4.39
- Dobbins 4.44
- Johnston 4.49 but known for his success running after the catch and forcing missed tackles
I don’t think there is much of a practical difference in the impact of their speed when you are talking about a screen at or behind the line of scrimmage. Understand others may disagree, and maybe I’m wrong about this.
@tau837 yeah you’d have a hard time convincing me that it couldn’t have been sold to McConkey with a similar outcome.
Anyway, my main goal was to point out the possibility that indirect impacts (and not only the direct ones) might be relevant, especially for a gadget player. We’ll see together how the season plays out for DD and the Offense.
Since we had a lot of discussion in the offseason about the value of Davis on the 53 man roster and active gameday rosters, I thought I would track his contributions this season.
Week 1:
- Offense: 7 snaps
- Rushing: 2 rushing attempts for 9 yards, 0 first downs, 0 TDs, long rush of 6 yards, 0 missed tackles forced
- Both rushing attempts on 1st and 10
- Receiving: 5 routes, 0 targets
- PFF grade (offense): 53.5
- Average yards per play:
- Davis snaps: 7 plays for 48 yards (6.9 yards per play)
- Other snaps: 50 plays for 268 yards (5.4 yards per play)
- Rushing: 2 rushing attempts for 9 yards, 0 first downs, 0 TDs, long rush of 6 yards, 0 missed tackles forced
- Kickoff returns: 1 return for 35 yards
- Fielded at 1 yard line, so Chargers took over at 36 — good play
- Note that PFF incorrectly shows this as 38 yards, but the film shows what I wrote here
- PFF grade: 62.9
- Fielded at 1 yard line, so Chargers took over at 36 — good play
- Punt returns: 4 punts fielded; 3 fair catches; 1 return for 9 yards
- The punt he returned:
- Was a 59 yard punt that outkicked the coverage, so getting 9 yards was easy
- Fielded at the 1 yard line, so Chargers took over at 10 yard line — bad decision, bad outcome
- PFF grade: 62.0
- The punt he returned:
Week 2:
- Offense: 14 snaps
- Rushing: 0 rushing attempts
- Receiving: 7 routes, 0 targets
- PFF grade (offense): 55.5
- Average yards per play:
- Davis snaps: 14 plays for 62 yards (4.4 yards per play)
- Other snaps: 55 plays for 287 yards (5.2 yards per play)
- Kickoff returns: 1 return for 13 yards
- Fielded at 5 yard line, so not a good return, but drew a facemask penalty, so the Chargers took over at 33 — bad play, good outcome
- PFF grade: 59.5
- Punt returns:4 punts fielded; 3 fair catches; 1 return for 15 yards
- The return was a good play
- PFF grade: 62.7
Week 3:
- Offense: 9 snaps
- Rushing: 1 rushing attempt for 8 yards, 1 first down, 0 TDs, 0 missed tackles forced
- Receiving: 6 routes, 0 targets
- PFF grade (offense): 60.1
- Average yards per play:
- Davis snaps: 9 plays for 45 yards (5.0 yards per play)
- Other snaps: 37 plays for 121 yards (3.3 yards per play)
- Kickoff returns: 2 returns for 37 yards, 0 TDs
- 1 return fielded 2 yards deep in end zone and returned 14 yards, so Chargers took over at 12 — bad decision, bad outcome
- 1 return fielded 3 yards deep in end zone and returned 23 yards, so Chargers took over at 20 — bad decision, bad outcome
- PFF grade: 58.4
- Punt returns: 3 punts fielded; 2 fair catches; 1 return for 5 yards
- PFF grade: 61.5
Total:
- Offense: 30 snaps
- Rushing: 3 rushing attempts for 17 yards, 1 first down, 0 TDs, 0 missed tackles forced
- Receiving: 18 routes, 0 targets
- PFF grade (offense): 55.0 (can’t tell where his grade ranks among WRs since he has 0 targets)
- Average yards per play:
- Davis snaps: 30 plays for 155 yards (5.2 yards per play)
- Other snaps: 142 plays for 676 yards (4.8 yards per play)
- Kickoff returns: 4 returns for 85 yards (21.3 yards per return), 0 TDs
- Chargers took possession at 36, 33 (due to opponent penalty), 12, 20 — average starting position at 24.8
- PFF grade: 60.9, which is #27 among all players with at least 1 kickoff return
- Punt returns: 11 punts fielded; 8 fair catches; 3 returns for 29 yards (9.7 yards per return)
- PFF grade: 64.3, which is #13 among all players with at least 1 punt return
This is a small sample size, so it isn’t reasonable to draw any conclusions yet. That said:
- 0 targets, 17 yards from scrimmage and 1 first down in 30 snaps on offense; team averages slightly more yards per play with Davis on the field, but I’m skeptical this data is meaningful without context; minimal impact so far
- Poor kickoff returner so far, and at least 2 of 4 returns were bad decisions that resulted in bad outcomes; directly contributing to the Chargers losing the field position game on kickoffs so far
- Not much impact as a punt returner so far, with mostly fair catches, 1 good return, 1 short return, and 1 bad decision, bad outcome return
Going forward, I’ll just post each new week and updated totals without repeating earlier weeks.
Thoughts?
Another week, another unimpressive showing by Davis. This one the least impressive so far.
Week 4:
- Offense: 0 snaps
- Kickoff returns: 4 kickoffs, all touchbacks, 0 returns
- Punt returns: 4 opposing punts; 2 punts fielded; 2 fair catches; 0 returns
- Punt 1: Davis ran up as if to field, slipped, and allowed the punt to bounce around the Cbargers 29 yard line and be downed by the Chiefs at the 19 yard line. With all of his fair catches, this is one he should have called for and made the fair catch to save field position. Bad play.
- Punt 2: Davis called for a fair catch at the Chargers 5 yard line. IMO should have let it bounce, expecting a touchback…
- Punt 3: …however, on the next punt, Davis did not call for a fair catch inside the 10 yard line, and it resulted in the Chiefs downing the punt at the 2 yard line. IMO this was a good decision, bad outcome, whereas punt 2 was a bad decision, bad outcome.
- Punt 4: Davis called for a fair catch at the Chargers 15 yard line. IMO he could have fielded this one and tried for a return. He seems to be extremely conservative on making fair catches vs. returns… is he being coached to do this?
- PFF grade: 61.2
Davis seems to be trending negatively.
@tau837 Davis has had a poor (borderline: terrible) start to the season. When I saw he didn’t practice for 2/3 sessions last week and was questionable with a hamstring, I thought Jaelen Raegor would be elevated from the PS. As it turned out, it probably would have been better for Davis not to play.
I know you’re dedicating a decent chunk of your time to this Derius Davis tracker. So far your take that we should have traded/cut him is trending well. But I do wonder whether it’s a topic that is perhaps being overly scrutinised:
- Given the extended PS rules and ability to elevate players each week. That is, how much is using a roster spot on a specialist returner (who’s been bad this year but was an All Pro last year on punts) really limiting or hurting you. Is the opportunity cost very much at all? On a trade there’s the draft pick you bring, so there’s that at least. But it’s probably quite a fringe roster decision without a huge impact on season output.
- Also, do other teams typically spend a 53 spot on a specialist returner? If yes, at least the league doesn’t seem to think (or at least hasn’t discovered yet) that much of a competitive advantage is to be had by having a revolving door at that position. I haven’t researched this at all though.
@alisterlloyd Thoughts:
1. I took an outlier stance on Davis in the offseason, and many more people disagreed with me than agreed with me, at times passionately. That is great, I love that kind of interesting, outside the box kind of discussion. Because of that, IMO it is of interest to track this for the full season, to see how it plays out, which can better inform such discussion in the future.
2. As to your comment about (my paraphrasing) whether that roster spot is really important enough to expend a lot of energy tracking and discussing… my reaction to that is absolutely yes, at least for me. How many roster spots were in doubt throughout training camp and preseason, leading up to final roster cuts? I think less than 10… would there be a 10th OL; a 4th RB; a FB; a 7th WR, and would Davis be one of them; a 4th TE; a 5th edge; a 6th IDL; who would be LB5; who would be safety 4. If we are talking about one 53 man roster spot out of 10 or fewer, yes, IMO it matters.
3. Were there better choices than Davis? Cornelius Johnson? Morris-Brash? Dye? A 10th OL? A real fullback instead of Matlock, who has been utterly terrible in the role? An additional safety since the plan was to ultimately move Jefferson to the practice squad? I think the answer is yes, there were better choices, regardless of which one was the best choice.
4. When the Moneyball book came out, I found it extremely interesting. My view of what it is about is finding and exploiting market inefficiencies. IMO that is what we are talking about here. I don’t really care if any other team has caught on to this potential inefficiency or not, I care about the merit of whether or not it is an actual inefficiency. If it is, and if other teams are ignorant to that fact, it should be exploited. The Chargers missed the chance to trade their “All Pro punt returner” because (IMO) he isn’t going to be that at any going point forward. They could have gotten a pick for him and kept another player who *might* have been more valuable to the team. That is a win. But they didn’t. I don’t blame them, it is outside the box thinking, and they may not be outside that box right now. (And I could also be completely wrong.) But that was the entire point of the offseason discussion.
5. Related to the previous point, winning at the margins may not be a huge needle mover, but it is positive impact. Accumulate a lot of small but positive impacts, and you have a big positive impact. So there is no reason to leave any potential advantage unexplored.
@tau837 Good responses Tau. Actually, we shouted you out on today’s TDU episode re your stance on Derius Davis.
If debating merely whether keeping TE4/IDL6, and so on, would have been superior to Derius Davis, I think we’re talking very fine margins indeed (with the PS rules and assuming that type of player typically would play fewer than 20 snaps in a game). However, when you add the forgone draft pick from a missed hypothetical trade, the combination is materially positive – I agree.
If I thought Greg Roman would be THIS conservative from a pass volume perspective, it might have changed my decision when I voted to keep Derius Davis. I thought he’d be run-first, but not necessarily 32nd in the League in passing. And there’s only so many times one can run a jet sweep!
What’s really hurt DD’s value is the major regression as a returner. There’s still time for him to show you up, but you’re off to a hot start, I admit!
@alisterlloyd Thanks. Haven’t listened to the podcast yet.
Something that has impressed about Hortiz is how he is constantly trying to improve the roster. That’s exactly what this is about. You want the best player you can have in every roster spot, even roster spot #53… even at every practice squad spot.
Sooner or later, doing that often enough and effectively enough will uncover a player who grows into Tyrell Williams, Austin Ekeler, Adrian Phillips, Jahleel Addae, or Michael Davis, all UDFA players strong enough to not only make a positive impact for the Chargers but eventually to start games.
@tau837 I know you weren’t persuaded by this, but I still think one of the more challenging parts of the idea would’ve been Harbaugh as an incoming coach making the call to cut a second year player who’d just been an All Pro (admittedly, as a returner). The relevant angles being:
- Even if he accepts it, the *raised eyebrows*/potentially weird start to the r’ship with Coach Ficken
- What it signals to the locker room (you’re all expendable if we think we can scrape a modicum of value?)
- How it might impact the Chargers as a desirable landing spot for other FA return specialists
- Potentially undermining the message of ‘competitors are always welcome’ just when Harbaugh is trying to initiate the program. If Harbaugh traded Davis and then started preaching competitors are always welcome – I think that could be viewed as potentially a bit weird? Whereas if Hortiz and Harbaugh decide to trade Derius Davis in a few weeks’ time before the bye? Much easier sell IMO. (“He didn’t perform or compete to a high enough level and doesn’t fit our system/culture”).
I like the concepts from Moneyball. Some of the above might be considered wishy-washy. I can see both sides of the argument.
@tau837 There’s a tremendous amount of speculation in here that is stated as fact.
“The Chargers missed the chance to trade their “All Pro punt returner” because (IMO) he isn’t going to be that at any going point forward. They could have gotten a pick for him and kept another player who *might* have been more valuable to the team.”
This is nothing but pure speculation. Maybe they did think about it and there was nothing there? Maybe not. The point is no one can say for sure and There likely would NOT have been a robust trade market for Davis. Maybe a late round pick that possibly wouldn’t even make the team like Johnson?
In terms of who could’ve made the team instead of him? The guys you mentioned all went to the practice squad and weren’t snatched up by anyone to be on their active roster. Johnson is gone now (to Packers PS) because he wasn’t even one of the best PS players and they waived him.
I’d argue that Davis likely is one of the last players in the best of 53 available. Has he been mediocre this season? Yes, absolutely. But its early and he can certainly bounce back.
More importantly though, who would return kicks and punts if not Davis? Clearly he is their best option there or they would’ve dropped him. You can’t use someone like Dobbins or McConkey, there’s too much injury risk and that would be very foolish. So who else are you going to use? Someone like Brenden Rice or Vidal who has very limited to no experience there and would probably be even worse and a potential liability? Scott Matlock? 
If you’re going to argue that some fridge player who would likely be inactive most games is a better use of a 53-man spot, then you at least need a solution to who is going to be your returner. Right now, Davis is clearly the best option despite his poor performance so far. Maybe he’s gone next year, but for now Let’s all just hope he goes back to being a quality return specialist.
@blue-beers Of course it is my opinion. I even said IMO at one point in what you quoted here. What we do here is post opinions, except where backed by objective data.
Yes, I think if they wanted to trade him before the season, they could have gotten a late pick for him. Or perhaps gotten Molden or Heinicke instead of giving up a pick. Maybe not, but I think Hortiz could have done it if motivated to do so, especially after Davis’s huge play in preseason.
Who would return kickoffs if Davis was gone? An obvious answer is Haskins, since he has been the second returner back with Davis on kickoff returns. Frankly, Davis has been a bad kickoff returner his entire time in the league. There are likely multiple players on the roster right now who could do an equivalent or better job while possibly contributing in areas other than strictly kickoff and punt returns.
Who would return punts if Davis was gone? Tarheeb Still returned a good number of punts in college. Jasir Taylor returned a few. I’m not sure who else on the current roster. But options would not have been limited solely to who is on the current roster. For example, Raegor is on the practice squad; he has returned more punts in the NFL than Davis, and he also has made a much stronger contribution as a WR than Davis has.
@tau837 I’m not following you here at all.
You want to use Haskins who is the backup because he is worse at returning kicks and punts, to take over kicks and punts so that we can add who to the roster? Somehow who will most likely be inactive on game day?
Or you want to use Tarheeb Still who was significantly worse in college than Davis, but you somehow think he will be better than Davis in the pros?
Or promote Raegor (who was just signed last week) to drop Davis?
None of this makes sense, at all. Unless Davis continues to decline in which case then yes he will wash out of the league pretty quickly. Don’t you think that if the coaches thought Davis was bad at returning kicks and punts then he wouldn’t be the starter?
Either way, if he plays bad I’m confident this coaching staff will make a change, but I’ve seen zero reason or evidence to suggest that anyone else on the roster would do a better job, and I don’t see whose roster spot he’s taking that I wish we rather had “XYZ” player instead.
This kind of feels like you have some personal vendetta against Davis for some reason.
You want to use…
Well, when I brought this up in the offseason, alternatives were not limited to players on the roster or practice squad. Just as they identified a number of players they wanted and went and got them, they could have identified and acquired a replacement who made more of an overall contribution (and maybe was also better at punt and kickoff returns).
Don’t you think that if the coaches thought Davis was bad at returning kicks and punts then he wouldn’t be the starter?
I have a lot of faith in Harbaugh and his staff, but that doesn’t mean they are infallible. I mean, they are playing Matlock at fullback despite the fact that he is performing miserably in that role. They just chose to start Mustipher over other options and he was terrible. Two games ago, they chose to move Pipkins to LT after Slater’s injury, which was a disaster.
This kind of feels like you have some personal vendetta against Davis for some reason.
I have no vendetta against Davis, I just don’t think he makes enough positive impact to warrant a weekly active roster spot.
It would be different if he was great at returning both punts and kickoffs, but he isn’t. So far this season, he has been bad at both.
It would be different if he made a meaningful contribution on offense or defense, but he has not done so to date in his career.
It would even be different if he played on other special teams units like the coverage units, but he doesn’t, presumably because he is too small to be an effective coverage player.
I would love for what I just wrote to change, in which case I would be happy to have him on the roster.
I have fully explained my reasoning. Like most others who discussed this with me since I brought it up in the offseason, you disagree, and that’s fine.
I was screaming to Davis not to field the second punt inside the 10. Other fans around my section gave me shit for it when KC pinned the punt at the 1. I yelled back “It is what it is, but you don’t field those punts!”
I don’t understand why he fielded the prior punt at the 5. Davis has been disappointing so far this season.
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