[et_pb_section admin_label=”section”]
[et_pb_row admin_label=”row”]
[et_pb_column type=”4_4″][et_pb_text admin_label=”Text”]
I can’t see the Pipkins experiment succeeding. The dude got ran over at tackle. He’s going to get flattened at guard. While McFadden looked decent against lessor talent, he got abused by Jones, so I’m not looking forward to seeing a repeat of that experience. I think the best RG on the team right now is Salyer. Hoping they find a vet at some point to come in and compete.
In general, I have a lot of trust and faith in Harbaugh and the coaching staff he has built. That’s across the board.
But if I had to pick the single thing that I have the most trust and faith in Harbaugh and the coaching staff about, it is offensive line.
I find it unlikely that Harbaugh would announce that Pipkins has already earned the starting RG role coming out of OTAs if Pipkins is destined to fail.
You point out that he had some challenges at RT but you allow no credit for the fact that he wasn’t terrible and played well at times. PFF shows that 36 players played at least 300 snaps at RT last season, and Pipkins’ PFF offense score ranked #22 in that group… but he also played more than 400 more snaps than 5 of those players with higher grades. He wasn’t great, but he wasn’t close to a bottom of league caliber RT.
And this year, he gets the benefit of Harbaugh and a better coaching staff, including Ben Herbert, and likely a better fit running scheme.
I’m not saying Harbaugh and Hortiz are infallible but the Chargers could have waited to announce that the starting OL is set. They could have signed a free agent guard to start. They could have coached up Salyer and kept him at RG. They could have coached up McFadden and given him a shot at RG. Rather than doing any of those things, they announced Pipkins is the starting RG entering training camp.
I’m going to trust them at this point.
@tau837 I will trust this new coaching staff until I’m given reasons not to trust them.
This one is a tough-sell for me. Their view that Pipkins can start at Guard in the NFL must be a projection based off tape/other measurables. There have been zero padded practices so far and Pipkins has played zero snaps at Guard in College or in the NFL. Quite the challenge for him to succeed there. Of course, I wouldn’t rule anything out. Pipkins is a big dude, and he has made splash plays before in the running game as a RT. If they think they can turn him into a successful Guard, I’m looking forward to seeing them try.
I share in your trust of Harbaugh & the staff he’s assembled. The breadth and depth of experience on this staff is the polar opposite of Staley’s staff.
Regarding what Harbaugh says publicly; I think we all need to seek to understand the intention of public statements from anyone on the Chargers staff before trying to assign meaning. Are they trying to pump up/challenge a player? Are they trying to deceive competition? I believe this staff knows how to play chess, maybe even the 3-D Star Trek version of the game. There is undoubtedly a version of chess being played here.
PFF shows that 36 players played at least 300 snaps at RT last season, and Pipkins’ PFF offense score ranked #22 in that group
Being a bottom-third NFL tackle that frequently got over-powered does not help me feel good about Pipkins potential success at RG. Could Pipkins surprise me? Absolutely. I hope he does. I just want this staff to develop plan B (and plan C) rather than taking the Telesco approach of ticking off boxes on the starting roster and moving on to the next issue. I want to see more interior OL depth.
@kevdiego I understand that coach speak is a thing. But Harbaugh and Hortiz have pretty much done everything they said they would do so far. I see no reason to doubt that Harbaugh’s proclamation that Pipkins earned RG coming out of OTAs was genuine.
Obviously, things could change.
As for the PFF data I posted, being #22 isn’t as bad as you characterize it IMO. For example, how much of a spread was there between his #22 and, say, #12? I don’t know and I don’t have time to look it up… I’m just saying, you should consider putting your total faith in this regime for OL choices and OL play.
Could Harbaugh be absolutely serious about Pipkins being the best RG on the team? Possibly. I just struggle to understand how a dude who’s weakness is his lack of strength will find success playing inside.
@kevdiego I still share the same concern. “Not the worst” and “Not terrible” are a far cry from “good”. I hope that Jim Harbaugh, Ben Herbert, Greg Roman, Mike Devlin, Nick Hardwick, and Andy Bishchoff get the most out of Trey Pipkins. You can only coach so much and then there has to be skill/strength/quickness/mental processing, etc. I would like to think that these coaches maximize Pipkins at “guard”, but I’m not sure what he looks like as maximized at guard. At “tackle/RT” he was average on his best day to below average. I can blame some of that on coaching, but he is on his third head coach and I’m assuming multiple offensive line coaches and that has gotten him to the edge of barely average. It would be great to have him slide to guard and find a position that he can be better than average. I believe it is a concern that should include a strong “Plan B” as you mentioned. You obviously can’t have all pros at all five spots. A couple of pro bowlers along with a few average guys will do. Just not sure that we have that.
So, unless the team carries 7 WRs – probably unlikely – I think they have to decide if they prefer these combos:
- Palmer/McConkey/QJ/Chark/Rice/Johnson – in this scenario, one of McConkey/Still will return punts, you don’t have an obvious ‘gadget’ receiver because you lose DD, but you do have Cornelius Johnson as a good blocking WR, contested catcher, and potentially strong ‘four core’ STer.
- Palmer/McConkey/QJ/Chark/Derius Davis/choose 1x Rice or Johnson – in this scenario, you have an All Pro punt returner who’s also your gadget receiver in DD, but you lose some height/contested catch ability at WR (brought by one of Rice/Johnson) and potentially a good run blocker/STer too.
There’s no pressure to make this decision quickly until we see how the preseason games unfold, but if Derius Davis makes even one ‘big play’ during preseason, either as a WR or punt returner, it would be a tough call for any staff to cut or trade him, only heading into Yr 2.
Haven’t listened to the podcast yet, but glad to see this is a topic. I’m pretty sure I was the first person I’m aware of anywhere who suggested Davis could be the odd man out and miss the final roster. That remains my opinion, as I think the first of your two groups here makes for a stronger and more flexible roster.
When he was drafted, Davis was to be the punt returner and the kickoff returner, and that’s what he was. He makes no other contribution on special teams, and he made very little contribution on offense as a rookie. As I have posted previously, he is a below average kickoff returner under the old rules, and IMO is even less likely to be successful under the new rules. Perhaps more importantly, it seems most likely that teams are just going to kick out of the end zone and give opponents touchbacks, making it more difficult for a kickoff return specialist to make any significant impact. I have also pointed out that even in his punt returner role, he only added about 5 yards per game in punt return yards above the average team. It just doesn’t seem important enough to me to allocate a final roster spot to him.
I don’t necessarily agree with your comment about a big play in preseason. That would be a perfect time to shop him around for an extra draft pick.
However, I do fully recognize that my opinion on this has been in the distinct minority, and Davis is probably more likely to make the roster than not.
@tau837 You’re definitely the originator of this idea, and I probably should have attributed it to you, sorry! In fact, I don’t think I’ve heard any other Charger fan, analyst or podcaster refer to Davis getting cut even as a remote possibility.
On this topic, I think your idea is probably too ‘galaxy brain’ for the NFL. It’s hyper-rational, of course, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Hortiz/Harbaugh hadn’t even considered the idea.
You might (correctly) view Davis making a big play in the preseason on an end-around, reception or return as improving his trade value. My guess (and that’s all it is, a guess) is that it would bolster the coaching staff’s confidence (either Greg Roman, or Ficken) that they have a real playmaker on their hands who they can use to better effect than the previous coaching staff. Remembering that the team just lost two key playmakers (Keenan and Mike), I can’t see them trading out one of the few remaining guys capable of making explosive plays.
I love it as a discussion though because, like you, I can see the arguments in favour of trading Davis.
@alisterlloyd Sorry, I didn’t mean that to imply I was seeking credit, just that I’m glad others besides me might be recognizing the possibility.
It kind of reminds me of Moneyball. The idea of finding and exploiting inefficiencies in the NFL ‘market’. It could be true that some teams overvalue returners due to “old school” perspective on that role and its impact. If so, good idea to exploit that with a trade.
I didn’t mean that to imply I was seeking credit, just that I’m glad others besides me might be recognizing the possibility.
You didn’t imply it, but you deserve the credit and I should’ve called you out. I’ll remember next time.
It kind of reminds me of Moneyball. The idea of finding and exploiting inefficiencies in the NFL ‘market’. It could be true that some teams overvalue returners due to “old school” perspective on that role and its impact. If so, good idea to exploit that with a trade.
It’s not even the old school perspective on the ‘role’, but the fact he made the All Pro. Trading rookie All Pros is stretching the boundaries of what GMs would be willing to entertain in terms of roster construction. Some GMs would call the idea ‘stupid’. Others, perhaps, ‘innovative’. For the returner position, where the player touches the ball only a handful of times per game, it’s less obvious to me that it’s stupid, even if he’s very good at it.
The WR position is another where market inefficiencies can be exploited IMO (and KC, arguably, have done it). We’ve seen a surfeit of college talent at the position. Why, then, did the Colts play Michael Pittman $20m+ per year to be their WR1? I could’ve used the Justin Jefferson contract as my example. But I still think there’s a valid reason for paying extravagant amounts to the very best players in the league at their position. It’s WRs outside the Top 10 making $20m plus who cause me to question their team’s roster building strategy.
I was on the “Davis is on the roster bubble” train very early as well. While this idea did not originate with me, it just makes too much sense. Allocating a roster spot and (more importantly) an active game day spot to a WR that can’t play WR does not seem like a Harbaugh thing.
Davis could absolutely make the roster. He also could absolutely get cut or traded. The question really is in how much incremental value Davis’ put return ability delivers vs. one of the other players with return experience. With Davis off the roster, the Chargers could have one less WR active on game day, allowing them to make an additional player that could contribute more broadly active. Now, if the Chargers think that Davis could contribute on a hand-full of offensive plays, then I think the odds of Davis making the roster increases significantly.
I tried to make a post and couldn’t figure it out. I’m sorry! It might be my outdated laptop. I won’t do it through my phone. Just won’t. Anyhoo. My thought is this… If Derwin doesn’t have a stand out season then are we ok with calling him an “average” safety?
He’s about to be 28 and his best year by far was as a rookie. There are valid excuses (injuries, bad schemes). I’m just a little tired of his potential not translating to a game changing player. He’s being payed to be just that. Big year for him. Thoughts?
@feeblepubliccableaccessshow he was the highest paid safety up until Antoine Winfield just got his contract a couple of months ago from Tampa Bay. As the second highest paid safety he should have an “All Pro” season. He should be a major disrupter on the field. Short of that he will have not earned his contract and you can call him whatever you want.
Right you are. The “should” was the point of my post. Was just lookin for some opinions on the matter. What would you call him, SMG?
@feeblepubliccableaccessshow I would call him a huge linchpin for this team’s success or failure on the defensive side of the ball. If he doesn’t have a good to great season in Minter’s defense I would call him disappointing and overrated.
@feeblepubliccableaccessshoweblepubliccableaccessshow This is a very important year for Derwin, no doubt.
Here are Derwin’s career grades (per PFF):
Here is how Derwin has been aligned in those years:
The data shows a player whose grades have regressed in proportion to the number of snaps he’s played at Free Safety. The data seems reasonably clear. Play Derwin as much as possible in the Box or in the Slot if you want to maximise his ability.
Now, I’m sure part of the reason for Staley playing him a FS as often as he did from 2021-2023 had something to do with the lack of adequate safety depth (JT Woods never came on) and issues that the Corners had staying healthy and/or executing coverage. Derwin became a bandaid to help put a roof over the Defense. I’m hopeful that we won’t be seeing as much of that this year.
@ryanwatkins did a fantastic job in this video breaking down the differences between Minter and Staley’s schemes:
A few key differences:
- Minter’s zone scheme is a true zone scheme rather than a pattern match zone scheme. True zone schemes might be easier for certain QBs to exploit but the players have less to remember and can play faster. This should suit Derwin. Pattern match sounds clever as the DBs’ coverage responsibilities will change post-snap depending on the route distributions on the play. But, it takes everyone being on the same page to execute at a high-level, and there’s more thinking involved for the players. Thus, the high incidence of blown coverages we saw during Staley’s tenure. What looks good on paper, does not always look good on the field.
- Minter blitzes at a higher rate than Staley, and uses simulated pressure looks at a higher rate than Staley. Derwin is a highly effective blitzer. Hopefully this suits him.
- Minter likes to play with three safeties more than the NFL average. As long as Tony Jefferson (or another safety) shows they can be trusted on the field, this should lead to greater playing time for Derwin in the Box or in the Slot. This is where he should thrive.
if, despite these things, Derwin can’t put together a great season, then maybe we can start to hypothesise that injuries have slowed him down and he isn’t the player he once was. However, I’m predicting a big season from Derwin.
One thing he must address, regardless of the coach, is the penalties. He gave away 14 penalties from 2022-2023. As a leader this must improve.
You’re absolutely right that Minter’s scheme will suit Derwin a lot more, you can just go back and look at the difference in his play between his last weeks in Staley’s scheme compared to how he ended the season under Derrick Ansley. Pattern Match is a fantastic system when you have smart players who are not elite athletes whereas true zone allows freak athletes like Derwin to fly around. Staley made the mistake of assuming because Derwin was smart enough to make the reads, that it meant doing so wouldn’t affect his play speed. Additionally (and as you tell from the decline in play as the season went on every year under Staley) the more rules you build into pattern match to counter what teams are using to beat you, the harder it is to be on the same page all across the secondary. I’ve coached both systems and it honestly depends on your players’ key traits, Staley and Telesco did not do a good job of uniting the acquisitions and the system and it led to the horror show we all bore witness to. With zone schemes it’s more simple; you either have the guys or you don’t but what Minter does so well is varying fronts, coverage disguise and blitz concepts all with the intention of putting his best guys in the best positions to make plays.
Therefore I’d actually be bold enough to say that Derwin will be seen as one of the best secondary players in the league at the end of next season. Everything is pointing that way because everything Staley did to suppress his talents, Minter will do the opposite.
Thanks for the mention @TDU_Allister really looking forward to putting out some more content like that video soon after a bit of a summer break, watch this space!
@ryanwatkins I think in Staley’s preferred world, Derwin would not have been asked to do as much as he did. In Derwin’s first year with Staley, he made the First-team All Pro. That was a healthy year for the Chargers. In his second year with Staley, Derwin was a Second-team All-Pro. In his final year, Derwin fell off a cliff, and I suspect part of that is because JT Woods was on the NFI, JC Jackson was cooked, Telesco was never clever enough to sign low-cost veteran DB depth, and Vato was playing like dog sh*t. Do I blame Staley for some of that? For sure, it’s his system. But some of those are extraneous factors IMO.
So, all that’s to say, yes I predict Derwin will be one of the best secondary players in the league this year (just like he was from 2021-2022 under Staley) but only if the cast around him is relatively stable. If Alohi suffers a season-ending injury in Wk 1, and Tarheeb Still spends part of the year on the NFI, I think it would limit Minter’s plans for him (as it probably did Staley’s in 2023).
Thanks for the mention @TDU_Allister really looking forward to putting out some more content like that video soon after a bit of a summer break, watch this space!
I look forward to watching it!
Not sure where the best place is to put this, but does Shane Day look like the separated at birth twin brother of Rick Moranis?
Bearded and wise Moranis version
In Derwin’s first year with Staley, he made the First-team All Pro.
AP is usually viewed as the standard for awards like All Pro. Derwin made AP 1st team All Pro once – 2018. In his first year with Staley, he made the Pro Bowl but did not make either AP 1st or 2nd team All Pro.
@tau837 Annoying! Wiki bios have always been my source of truth for All Pro (see below):
However, I see now that when I click further, Wiki awards an All Pro to a player if either Associated Press (AP), Football Writers of America (PFWA) or The Sporting News (TSN) awarded them All Pro honours.
According to Wiki, Derwin’s 2021 First Team All Pro was only awarded by TSN:
In 2022, TSN awarded him First Team All Pro and AP awarded him Second Team All Pro:
I thought Derwin was a little better in 2021 than 2022 myself…
@tau837 I will moving forward. And sorry for misleading any readers. It wasn’t intended here!
[/et_pb_row]
[/et_pb_section]
