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After recently giving my ‘Potential versus Actual’ grades out yesterday on TDU, I thought I might look into the numbers concerning LAC’s ED and DI stats from 2023. I am high on the ED group being one of the best in league (again), but I was critical of the DI group giving them a D grade. I do think the Bolts’ DI is one of the weakest groups on our roster, and currently are one of the worst in the league. I thought that instead of Bud Dupree being signed we might have focused on signing another interior defensive lineman that has proven experience alongside Poona Ford…but Dupree was signed instead. Why was this? What game are Harbaugh, Minter and Hortiz playing at here?
It is no secret that the Chargers were one of the worst teams, if not THE worst team (per PFF) in the league throughout Staley’s tenure at stopping the run. But, if I told you that in 2023 LAC had the league leading grouping of 3 edge defenders in terms of stopping the run, would you believe me? I certainly would not. Maybe top 10? But THE BEST?
Let’s look at this closer per some PFF ratings (I’ve added Bud Dupree’s numbers in at the bottom for interest):
| Player | Team | Games Played | Assists | Avg Depth of Tackle | Forced Fumbles | Grades (Run Defense) | Missed Tackle Rate (%) | Stops | Tackles | Stop Percentage (%) |
| Joey Bosa | LAC | 9 | 3 | 2.7 | 0 | 70.7 | 6.3 | 11 | 12 | 11.1 |
| Khalil Mack | LAC | 17 | 12 | 1.4 | 1 | 90.8 | 5.8 | 33 | 37 | 9.7 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | LAC | 17 | 9 | 1.6 | 2 | 88.4 | 8.0 | 29 | 37 | 8.7 |
| Bud Dupree | ATL | 16 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 | 65.4 | 18.2 | 8 | 14 | 3.0 |
For comparison, let’s keep it in the division and look at another top 5 group of three ED defenders in the league in terms of run defense are from our beloved Raiders (FTR)
| Player | Team | Games Played | Assists | Avg Depth of Tackle | Forced Fumbles | Grades (Run Defense) | Missed Tackle Rate (%) | Stops | Tackles | Stop Percentage (%) |
| Maxx Crosby | LV | 17 | 16 | 2.3 yards | 2 | 92.7 | 5.8% | 38 | 49 | 9.4% |
| Janarius Robinson | LV | 6 | 3 | 1.7 yards | 0 | 71.3 | 14.3% | 3 | 3 | 9.7% |
| Isaac Rochell | LV | 7 | 2 | -0.2 yards | 0 | 70.9 | 0.0% | 5 | 5 | 6.6% |
And one final data set that proves how well (and how even their contributions) Mack, Bosa, and Tuli were last year against the run compared to other top run-defending-trios in the league. TJ Watt, Crosby, Lawrence, Paye & Ebukam all raise their respective peers averages by a LONG way.
| Team | Run Defense Grade | Stop Percentage | Missed Tackle Rate |
| LAC | 83.7 | 7.2 | 15.7 |
| PIT | 78.7 | 7.7 | 11.4 |
| LV | 78.3 | 8.6 | 6.7 |
| IND | 77.8 | 7.9 | 4.9 |
| DAL | 75.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 |
| MIA | 75.7 | 7.8 | 12.4 |
| CAR | 74.5 | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| HST | 73.8 | 8.7 | 11.7 |
| NE | 73.7 | 7.1 | 13.2 |
| CLV | 73.3 | 9.5 | 9.4 |
| ATL | 72.7 | 9.8 | 12.1 |
| TB | 71.4 | 7.7 | 2.8 |
| NO | 71.0 | 6.7 | 9.2 |
| GB | 70.3 | 6.9 | 9.1 |
Our trio graded the best in the league not by a small amount, but per PFF rankings they were an outstanding trio against the run. Whilst the stop percentage and the missed tackle rates can be improved, the overall ranking against other top 3 players from around the league blew my mind. What stands out is how even the group is as well how strong they are individually. We have a league-leading ED position heading into 2024, and adding Dupree in there only increases the strength of the unit. These numbers when compared to the rest of the league blew my mind.
However, this is not all sunshine and rainbows and this is where the positivity stops.
Whilst the Chargers ED trio of Bosa, Mack and Tuli were graded best in the league at defending the run, the Chargers defense overall were ranked 12th in stopping the run, where as the Raiders? They ranked 5th in stopping the run, the Steelers were ranked 9th, and The Cowboys ranked 7th.
What about overall ranked defenses? It looks something like this (all via PFF):
Chargers – 19th
Raiders – 8th
Steelers – 7th
Dallas – 5th
THAT ranking is damning given the exceptional play from the ED. Coaching? Probably. IDL play? Yes. LB play? Probably yes, too (add more reasons here).
But let’s focus on IDL play. In 2023 the Chargers IDL ranked 18th overall at stopping the run (yuck). A benchmark IDL unit to compare against is the Eagles, who ranked 1st in the league as a unit against the run, and 4th as an entire defense against the run.
| Player | Team | Run Defense Grade | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Stop Percentage | Avg Depth of Tackle |
| Nick Williams | LAC | 51.0 | 16 | 3 | 4.5% | 2.5 |
| Austin Johnson | LAC | 48.4 | 28 | 2 | 5.6% | 2.7 |
| Morgan Fox | LAC | 43.1 | 6 | 1 | 2.6% | 3.0 |
| Otito Ogbonnia | LAC | 43.6 | 14 | 0 | 6.7% | 3.0 |
| Scott Matlock | LAC | 38.8 | 10 | 0 | 4.5% | 3.7 |
| Christopher Hinton | LAC | 57.6 | 6 | 0 | 6.5% | 4.2 |
| Player | Team | Run Defense Grade | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Stop Percentage | Avg Depth of Tackle |
| Fletcher Cox | PHI | 68.8 | 21 | 0 | 5.4% | 3.3 |
| Milton Williams | PHI | 69.8 | 27 | 4 | 11.2% | 1.7 |
| Marlon Tuipulotu | PHI | 59.4 | 12 | 1 | 10.1% | 2.3 |
| Moro Ojomo | PHI | 70.8 | 3 | 0 | 7.1% | 1.7 |
| Jordan Davis | PHI | 63.4 | 22 | 5 | 7.6% | 2.5 |
| Jalen Carter | PHI | 69.4 | 12 | 1 | 3.0% | 2.6 |
The Philadelphia Eagles’ DI unit has a significantly higher average run defense grade (66.9) compared to the Chargers’ DI unit (47.1). The Eagles also have a higher stop percentage, showcasing their ability to disrupt the run game more efficiently. Additionally, the Eagles’ DI players exhibit better tackling efficiency with fewer missed tackles and higher tackle counts on average. Overall, the Eagles’ DI unit outperforms the Chargers’ DI unit in every key metrics of run defense. So they should, Roseman invests big draft capital in ensuring that IDL of the Eagles is a menace to run against. Like the Chargers’ ED group, the contribution is even and solid all around.
So where is this all heading? Well, my question remains that why did we sign Dupree and not seem to explore bringing in another more experienced/solid IDL? Poona Ford ranks 142nd among all defensive interior players in the league in terms of run defense grade in 2024, by the way. Austin Johnson is gone, as is SJD (not huge losses, clearly) Ogbonnia is coming off a serious injury. Matlock’s numbers above are not good. Morgan Fox brings interior pass rush, but his stop % is the lowest of last years’ group. And Eboigbe is a rookie (everyone knows my thoughts on him already).
It seems we’ve made an elite unit more elite-r, and really done nothing to bridge the gap between our ‘best’ and our ‘worst’ when it comes to positional groups that are integral to stopping the run. Does anyone have any ideas? Or can someone counter my thinking here? Is the re-addition of Perryman, and the emergence of Henley and Colson going to help? Does Minter have some kind of grand plan to employ the ED group to be the major run-stuffers, forcing running backs wide into hard set edges, hiding the soft-underbelly of the DI? Is there a trade we could make? Or am I just in my own head with this and everything will be ok because…Harbaugh and Minter?
I need to get my head around the approach that has been taken to reshaping this defense so far.
Explanations needed/desired/welcomed. More TDU eps coming your way in the next few weeks.
Cheers,
Jack aka. The Teach
Great content, Jack.
I’m perhaps not as surprised at the Edge ranking being best in the League in ’23 because, as the All-22 sicko of our pod, I got to watch plenty of Mack/Tuli/Bosa setting a great edge, and holding up an otherwise pitiful Defense on film. It was a treat to watch all year.
Similarly, the DT ranking doesn’t surprise me much – in fact, I would’ve guessed they’d be lower than 18th. I thought Nick Williams had some ok moments on tape, but generally the DT play was disastrous from my vantage point.
So, knowing that, why would the team sign Dupree and not fortify the DT group?
I think the answer boils down to:
- Bracing ourselves for a future without Bosa and/or Mack and the importance placed on supporting Tuli: As soon as ’25, Tuli could be asked to carry the load as Edge 1. Signing a 31yo veteran like Dupree to a two-year deal made sense and provided some insurance (and support) for Tuli, who otherwise may have been relying on other rookies to share the buden. At $3m per year, Dupree offers value for money (I think).
- Market factors: The best DT free agents all got paid in free agency this year. Chris Jones, Madubuike and Wilkins all commanded $22m+ per season. The next crop (Leonard Williams, DJ Reader, Grover Stewart, Sheldon Rankins, Justin Jones) all fetched $10m+. The third wave DT free agents all made at least 2x as much as Poona Ford’s $1.79m, and some made 4x as much as he did (eg, SJD, Bilal Nichols, Raekwon Davis, A’Shawn Robinson, Shelby Harris, Javon Kinlaw, DaQuon Jones, Quinton Jefferson). The Chargers were faced with a cap squeeze this offseason with multiple roster holes to plug. The approach taken was to sign cheap, short-term rentals, and not chase the bigger fish this year. Would you have liked the Chargers to find a way to acquire one of the aforementioned players > Poona? I would be open to arguments about some of the names in tier three, and I’ve been a DJ Reader fan for years, but we could’ve kissed goodbye to signing some of our other FAs (Hurst, Bozeman, Dissly, Fulton) if we’d signed Reader. I get Hortiz’s decision-making in this respect.
- Trusting the staff’s ability to draft and develop: You showed in your recent posts about Eboigbe, that many of the NFL’s best run stuffing DTs have been taken in the mid-to-later rounds. Hortiz and his staff just took Eboigbe and there are holdovers from the previous regime (Ogbonnia/Hinton (former Wolverine)/Jerrod Clark) who have likely piqued the staff’s interest. I think the team will ride it out with the current group, trust the coaching staff to seal holes (through run blitzing and other creativity), and then reassess how the DT group is looking next offseason (before deciding whether to attack it in the draft or sign a more expensive FA).
One other possibility is if the Chargers find themselves with a winning record around the ’24 trade deadline (but the DT group has otherwise underperformed), perhaps then we would explore a trade for a higher quality DT from a losing team. This seems a better approach to me than signing a higher priced DT in FA, only to find that the team is further away from competing than previously thought, with pressing needs at WR and CB.
There’s no obvious right or wrong answer to any of this. Some fans may have preferred taking the $3m+ per year DT > Dupree. But I think the current approach is defensible and some of the above factors would’ve entered Hortiz’s thought process.
Nice job mate.
p.s. Looks like you have some competition for your nom de plume
@alisterlloyd all good points.
Would you have liked the Chargers to find a way to acquire one of the aforementioned players > Poona?
Of course the big boys were out of the question in both the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd tier lineman given the money that was thrown around early. Like you I have always like Reader, but money was tight. I just think one more experienced, bigger body player would be nice. Another player ‘around’ Ford would just give me a bit more confidence in having an NFL IDL ‘body’ (Calais Campbell, Jonathan Bullard, Armon Watts, Gholston, Maurice Hurst all around Poona money) but at what cost other than salary? There is no pressure to perform this year (compared with last year, anyway) and perhaps Minter just wants to wait and see if his ‘next man up’ rotation strategy though the defensive line can work at an NFL level.
Perhaps we hit IDL in 2025. I have already begun to look at SOME names at the DT spot (which I know you’ll love me doing already you draft sicko!) like:
Deone Walker from Kentucky (6’6 348lbs!!!), Michigan’s Kenneth Grant who played behind Kris Jenkins who played behind Mazi Smith, and Nazir Stackhouse from Georgia (6’3 320lbs). Them amongst others stood out just due to their size profiles.
Trusting the staff’s ability to draft and develop.
I have put my faith in one HC to do this, so my trust is at an all time low and I temper my expectations…but Harbaugh is not Staley. I know that full well. And I did pick out that some of the best defensive lineman come later in the draft (good article Jack!). But @tau837 mentions a good point is that maybe we see the ED group lineup inside more often to bridge to ability gap between the IDL and the ED. Wait and see! Looking forward to our guest ep on Monday 
@wrefordreed89 Stackhouse is the only played in that group I’ve watched while scouting other players (because he’s been at Georgia for a while), but Deone Walker is supposed to be a freak. Time to hit that Summer Scouting All-22, big boy!
but Harbaugh is not Staley
And, perhaps even more relevantly, Hortiz/Roman/Trestman/Brady/Bischoff/Devlin/Lal/Minter/Clinkscale/Elston/Bowman is not Telesco/Lombardi/Moore/Nussmeier/Nugent/Beatty/Ansley/Rodgers/Donatell!
Interesting post, Jack. I agree with Alister’s points.
Point 1.
In Ford’s first 3 seasons, he played 849 snaps at nose tackle. In the 3 seasons since, he played just 68 snaps there. Seattle changed how they were using him, apparently to try to get more pass rush production out of him, and Buffalo oddly followed suit. In his first 3 seasons, among IDL players with at least 100 run defense snaps, Ford’s run stop percentage ranked:
- 2018 – 11th out of 50 players… as a rookie
- 2019 – 10th out of 50 players
- 2020 – tied for 35th out of 50 players… not sure what happened there
Here are his PFF run defense grades in those seasons:
- 2018 – 90.0, tied for #8 out of 50 players
- 2019 – 73.5, #30 out of 50 players
- 2020 – 73.0, tied for #21 out of 50 players
Now, who is going to play NT for the Chargers? I assume that will be Ford when they line up a NT, particularly on early/run downs. IMO the Chargers front office and staff saw a guy who wasn’t being utilized to his best ability, which fit a glaring Chargers need.
I think the Chargers intend to get back to maximizing Ford’s impact as a run defender and not worrying about getting pass rush production from him. At least 3 years have passed since he was used that way, can he get back to that productivity? Under this coaching staff, I expect so if he remains healthy.
Point 2.
Per PFF, there were 944 combined Edge and IDL players with at least 100 run defense snaps in 2023. Eboigbe’s PFF run defense grade (86.4) ranked #15 in that group. His 25 run stops ranked tied for #19 in that group. I expect he is going to be among the top 4 Chargers IDL players in snaps if he remains healthy… Ford, Fox, Eboigbe, and …?
According to PFF, there were 435 LBs with at least 100 run defense snaps in 2023. Colson’s grade (80.0) ranked #34. His missed tackle rate was tied for #13. I know you were mainly talking about IDL but this will also figure into upgrading the run defense.
Point 3.
Assuming health for the Edge group, which is admittedly a big assumption, it wouldn’t be the most surprising thing to see this Edge group as a collective unit take more snaps inside. For example, in Bosa’s first 4 seasons, he took 379 snaps inside, but he has played just 66 snaps inside. Some of that may have been health related, and some may have been due to lack of edge depth. They don’t lack that depth now, so they have the freedom to do this if desired. Now, this may occur more often on passing downs, but we know Bosa is a quality run defender.
Point 4.
Coaching, coaching, coaching.
Conclusion:
I think the Chargers run defense will be quite a bit better in 2024 than last season.
Thanks for helping my thinking @tau837 !!
Point 1:
I like this data, and it was something I was thinking about but didn’t dive in to. I am always careful when thinking a player’s past performance will dictate current performance, but the mis-utilization argument is a strong one. I HOPE he lines up at NT, because I have wanted a big, stout fire-hydrant-type player in the Bolts defense for a long time. The last one I think of is Brandon Mebane, who was not particularly successful as a Charger who was also an ex-Seahawk. As you suggest, I do not think he’s been signed to provide interior pass rush, that will come from other avenues. I also forget hes only 28yo, many of the other players signed around the same money were 30+ years old. If he works out, then the Bolts should have a decent player at NT for a few years.
Point 2:
Let’s hope both Eboigbe and Colson can improve the run D. I am already worried about Colson’s body as he has been on the sidelines during some practices already, but again it is a wait and see. Colson knows the defense, and my bet is that he’ll be hungry from the get go, but NFL is faster than College so there may be some teething issues early on.
My jury is out on Eboigbe even though the numbers you provide are positive. I have not heard much about him in press conference (or the IDL much at all), and that is generally only what I have to go off in terms of how players are progressing. However, there is a reason Hortiz/Harbaugh targeted him where they did. I do think they will utilize him correctly, and his tenacity + athleticism (even though I think he’s a bit of a tweener physically at the NFL level currently) is what is needed in the teeth of the IDL. Paired with a stouter Poona and different type of ED players in some schemes, it should be fun to watch.
Point 3:
My favorite of your points. Lining Bosa inside, Mack outside, Tuli outside, and Fox inside on a 3rd and long will be fun to see. Alternatively, seeing Mack and Bosa push inside for early downs also creates mismatches on the opposition interior OL. Health is the biggest one for Joey on the inside, as bigger bodies, less space to operate in, and generally more power-to-weight ratios do mean more stress on his body. I am thinking Minter will want to utilize mismatches as much as possible, and continually give different looks on the defensive front.
Point 4:
It’s not Staley. It’s not Staley. It’s not Staley (I have to keep repeating this to myself in the mirror).
Thanks again for your insights @tau837 !
It’s not Staley. It’s not Staley. It’s not Staley (I have to keep repeating this to myself in the mirror).
This new compulsion of yours to slander Staley at every opportunity is going to cause some serious issues between us Jack 😆
Just on Poona Ford, Marcus addressed his ‘best role’ in the recent deep dive series:
Marcus thinks he’s too small to anchor properly in the A Gap and is best suited as being a one-gap penetrator in the B Gap. His main criticism is he ‘loses eyes’ on the RB and is too easily washed from his spot.
Tau’s right that the PFF grading supports the opposite view. He’s certainly graded higher historically when taking more snaps in the A Gap. I generally trust Marcus’s opinions on these things, but I plan to do some All-22 study of Poona later in the offseason. I’ll let you know what I think. My gut says the PFF data will be right here, since the discrepancy in grading seems so clear.
Interesting. I have not watched the All-22 either, but as @tau837 mentioned his best gradings come in the A-gap early in his career (check visualized data I created, pretty clear!)
That is strange for an IDL/NT UDFA because generally an undrafted defensive lineman lacks something (like size or strength) to play that crucial position early in their career. Obviously the scheme and overall effectiveness of the defense will make a different too, but it’s been a pretty steep decline of performance from his early years at Seattle.
Another ‘diamond in the rough’ or a player who’s ‘stock is low’!
@wrefordreed89 How the heck did you manage to get A Gap Grades v B Gap Grades?! I wasn’t aware that PFF grades descended into the level of detail?
I need to learn how you’re creating all this visually pleasing data with AI. I’m jealous.
A presenter from a law firm told us last week that ChatGPT “hallucinates” about 70% of the time (ie, just makes stuff up to fill data input gaps). I sincerely hope that whatever AI tool you’re using is a little more accurate! Otherwise “The Teach” will very shortly become “The Trump” :-p
I pulled it straight from PFF 😂 as per below. PFF has College stats broken down, too.
@alisterlloyd I dont know what is going on with this website, but it’s going weird. THIS is the graph I meant to show. It has his overall PFF grade, pass defence, pass rush, and snap counts all visualized.
@wrefordreed89 In one of your graphs above you have “A Gap Grade” and “B Gap Grade” in the key. Maybe it’s an typo.
I’m sure PFF could create A Gap Grade and B Gap Grade, if they wanted to, but to the best of my knowledge they don’t do that. PFF Grades defensive players based on Overall Defense, Run Defense, Tackling, Pass Rush, Coverage, as you’ve shown above.
Forgot to add that I’m sure part of bolstering the Edge group with Dupree was related to the weakness at CB. Stronger pass rush helps the secondary in pass defense.
@tau837 I agree, made this argument in SMG’s third installment of his recent analysis of position groups.
Still work to be done in the trenches on both sides of the ball, though as of now the OL looks to be pretty strong. The interior of both lines is something of a “let’s hope x player returns to form” wish right now.
I agree, @buck-melanoma and I am always wary of the thought process “let’s hope x player returns to form”. However, I’ve never experienced having a HC like Harbaugh before, nor a GM like Hortiz who targets specific players because (as @tau837 points out with Poona Ford) they are perhaps being misused given their skillsets.
@wrefordreed89 I’m hopeful and yes, we’re dealing with a coach that brings a winning record and mindset. I expect dividends but realize they may not be as immediate as we’d like. Building Rome and such.
PFF Secondary Rankings for 2024:
20. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Not much went right for the Chargers in 2023, and it resulted in major changes this offseason. The secondary will get big contributions from rookies, but the team will return Alohi Gilman (89.2 coverage grade in 2023), Asante Samuel Jr. (75.6) and Derwin James. James struggled in 2023, grading below 77.6 for the first time in his career. Expect him to bounce back in 2024.
I think you are onto something Tau with the pass rush. They list three returners, but after that it is rookies, low round draft picks, UDFAs, and Kristian Fulton. It is razor thin and the talent behind those big three is a big mystery at this point. Any injuries to the big three and look out. That Defensive Line better end the season with 65+ sacks and a ton of QB hits/hurries.
Hey Teach, great stuff and I enjoyed your pod too. I find myself a tad short of time lately, but I’m paying attention! As you alluded to, I have to believe that the coaches are putting some eggs in the LB group basket. Everything they do has seemed very deliberate to this point in time. What that means to me is that the obvious weakness in run defense (the middle) is an issue that was not swept under the rug.
Could there be an addition to that interior from potential cuts, or trade? Never say never.
Whatever the approach, I do have confidence that the issue sticks out like a turd in a punchbowl to the staff.
Happy Independence Day to all of you!!! I know this is a uniquely American holiday, but I’m declaring you, Andy and Alister as Americans by order of my decree. Cheers!!
@mongotesla my friend from England said, “Happy Traitors Day” this morning while we walked our dogs! Have a safe and fun Holiday this morning.
Dude, that’s hilarious!! You have a safe and great holiday too! I guess the same goes for your friend.
Happy Independence Day to all of you!!! I know this is a uniquely American holiday, but I’m declaring you, Andy and Alister as Americans by order of my decree.
Thank you, John! Enjoy the celebrations (and please be careful around any explosives!)
@alisterlloyd so my friend from England asked how my two puppies are doing and I said that the “English” shepherd house trained inside of two weeks. My “Australian” Cattle dog is still figuring it out three months later. He said “yeah, ones English the other is Australian”.
Thought the “down under crew” would enjoy that.
@spanos-must-go Haha! Tell your friend that if the English were easily trained, perhaps they’d be capable of beating us at sport (eg, The Ashes)
Your friend reminds of a comedy movie with a Canadian lady. She’s in the U.S. and Immigration caught up with her.
Immigration: We have to deport you.
Lady: You can’t deport me.
Immigration: Oh yeah, why not?
Lady: I’m Canadian!
LOL
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