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I’m currently watching Receiver on Netflix. The documentary has led me to a few surprising opinions:
- There is no way I would have paid Jefferson. No doubt he’s a talent. But, that’s a lot of cap space allocated to a small-ish receiver that seems to have a bit of a maturity issues. If I were the Vikings, I think I would have found a way to keep him around on his rookie deal (or franchise tag) to see what he’s like a few years down the road.
- Bold prediction: I do not believe the Vikings will win a championship with Jefferson (and his contract) on the team. I know that’s not a super-bold prediction, but I don’t think Jefferson’s play + the Vikings roster situation will lead to a championship. It may, in fact, have set them back a bit from a roster construction standpoint
- Davante Adams is going to be traded by the Raiders mid-season. Wouldn’t be great if the Chargers could land him mid-season for a playoff push?
- I went into the documentary wanting to hate Adams. I came out thinking the dude is a baller, great teammate and a talent
- Adams also seems like he wants a championship – something that is not going to happen with the Raiders for a long time (thank you Tom Telesco!).
- Adams base salary in 2025 is $35.6M (and the same in 2026). There is no way the Raiders (or anyone) is going to pay a 33 year old receiver that
- If the Chargers are rolling early in the season, the option of coming to a winning team with Harbaugh as the coach and Herbert at QB could be very enticing for Adams. It would give him a very good shot at a championship
- Given his contract, I think the price for Adams would be a mid to late round pick. Something the Chargers could definitely afford
- Adams would have to renegotiate his contract, giving him some leverage in where he’s traded (and likely limiting the trade targets to a select few teams). The Chargers could pull off the trade, and either re-negotiate Davante’s contract or waive him at the end of the year
- Bold Prediction: The Chargers trade a conditional 6th round pick (that possibly elevates to a 5th) for Adams prior to Halloween
I know the Raiders are going to be reluctant to trade Adams to a division rival, but Adams contract (and him wanting to win a championship) is going to limit the Raiders options. If they don’t trade him, they’re definitely going to have to waive him after the season, giving them nothing. I think the Raiders are going to suck & will be looking to 2025 by the end of October. Shedding 2025 cap space and stacking picks will be a priority and an expensive, 32 year old receiver will be on the top of the list of players they need to move.
Nice write-up Kev. Did you see how pissed off Devante was about the Bolts social media team slighting him during the schedule rollout? He didnt sound amused.
But your points are all business. And all of them make sense.
@pistol495 Yea, that was funny. Interesting the impact the social media team has. Hopefully it gets in the heads of opponents and does not give them motivation (like another player talking trash before a game).
I’ve been watching Receiver & it looks like Davante is checked out. The only reason he was okay with the move to the Raiders is Derek Carr being there. Now he’s not there, the team is going nowhere fast, & their QB situation is in flux. I don’t believe they will approve a trade within the division. My guess is he will get traded, & it’ll be the Jets so he can re-unite with Aaron Rodgers.
Jack has a different take to this after watching Receiver. He’s not a Davante fan at all 😆 Thinks he’s a spoiled brat. But I’ll let him speak for himself.
I’ve only watched Ep 1 of Receiver, but I’ve listened to other clips of Davante on X talking about his decision to leave GB, and to me he seems very, very, focussed on making money. I’ve made my feelings known about this kind of stuff, so I won’t repeat it, but I don’t know how comfortably what I’ve seen from Davante interviews sits with your wants a championship take. I think he wants money, targets and a championship. Possibly in that order.
Also worth mentioning that last year, Davante had:
- His lowest PFF Grade (79.1) since 2016
- His lowest total yardage (1,144) since 2019, despite having the most targets of his career (171)
- His most drops since 2016 (9)
- His lowest yards per reception (11.1) since 2015
- His lowest yards per route run (1.97) since 2017
- His lowest yards after catch per reception (3.3) since 2015.
Some of those are, no doubt, impacted by Aiden O’Connell throwing him the ball in 11 games. Other (drops and YAC) are on him. And perhaps the above stats suggest he is a middling WR1 heading into 2024 rather than the elite force he once was.
I would rather take Jefferson (on his deal and what it would cost to acquire him) > Davante tbh. 4 seasons, 5,899 yds, 30 TDs. That’s more than just talent. Jefferson’s a f*ck*** freak show. His performance @ Buffalo in 2022, catching balls one handed with three defenders draped over him, is still probably the best game from a receiver in the 2020s thus far.
I’m fine with the approach being taken, viz surrounding Herbert with cheaper talent. But equally, I would be fine with trying the spend high at receiver approach if Jefferson is the dude we could get into the building. At least for a few years. As the old saying goes, when you pay peanuts, you get monkeys…
Herbert + Jefferson is a ticket I could get behind. A presidential pairing if ever there was one.
@alisterlloyd agreed about Davante. That was another thing that was very apparent to me which I forgot to mention. However, personally I would switch the order of his priorities that you listed above to:
1) targets
2) money
3) championship
He mentioned something a few times in the documentary how he’s not worried about wins & losses…he’s worried about greatness. I found that very off-putting. Basically what he’s saying is he’s selfishly only worried about being great himself, & the team success doesn’t mean as much to him. I didn’t like that at all.
@alisterlloyd If you watch more episodes, you may find that you are more impressed with Adams. I’ve watched the first 4 episodes, and I was really impressed with his commitment to stay in the game after getting hurt. He showed some diva-like frustration with his QB play, but, in fairness, Garropolo was missing him badly when he was wide open, and I can see why that would be frustrating.
As for the metrics you mentioned, total yardage, YPR, YPRR, and YAC are all affected by QB quality. You said YAC isn’t, but I disagree with that… the QB needs to place the ball well and time throws properly to maximize YAC. It also matters that the defense may not be worried about weaker QBs beating them deep and thus might play closer to the LOS, which could limit YAC.
I have mentioned before that I really like Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception. Here are some quotes from his player profile on Adams for the 2023 season, posted yesterday (bolded emphasis mine):
The 2023 season went down as one of the more frustrating campaigns in Adams’ journey… However, Reception Perception will show that the future Hall of Fame receiver hasn’t lost any speed off of his fastball.
Part of what made Adams such a force in his final seasons with Green Bay wasn’t just his natural chemistry with Aaron Rodgers but the creative push by Matt LaFleur and co. to move Adams around. The Packers were one of the first teams in the last few seasons to take their elite wideout and ratchet up his slot reps (29.5% of sampled snaps in 2021) and off-the-line deployment (29.7%).
That’s not been a part of his duties in Las Vegas and with the addition of flanker/slot Jakobi Meyers last year, it was even more pronounced than in 2022. Adams took 87.5% of his sampled snaps outside in 2023, the highest rate since 2016, and a whopping 85.8% on the line, the most of his career.
It should be implied that none of this is to say that Adams can’t hack it as an X-receiver, as we know that’s obviously not te case. Roles like this just lend themselves to low percentage targets for receivers and invite volatility from mid-level quarterbacks. For Adams himself, he still has all the juice needed to win at the X or any wide receiver position.
Adams hit the 90th percentile in success rate vs. press coverage for the fifth straight season last year with an 80.3% score. He runs against a ton of press and physical man coverage on the outside and remains one of the best options league-wide to win in those scenarios.
Adams’ 84.4% success rate vs. zone coverage also comes in the same percentile range. It’s actually his second-best success rate vs. zone figure of the last five seasons.
The only area where we saw a slight drop-off from Adams was his 76.1% success rate vs. man coverage mark. It is still an excellent result, but it’s not quite at the elite levels of performance we were used to from 2018 to 2022. It’s always worth raising an eyebrow at these types of dips for older receivers – here we trend into the territory I’ve learned to be the least confident in forecasting with RP – but because the rest of his profile is so good, I struggle to sound the alarm. You can just as easily convince me this dip is due to his alignment lowering his average success rate on vertical out-breaking routes to the boundary, especially considering his route-running over the middle remained as strong as ever.
Adams’ success rates on base NFL routes were still extremely strong. His success rates on curls, posts, slants and outs were particularly impressive. He remains a devastating technician who is a complete chore to cover with enough speed to dust an ill-timed cornerback.
Part of the reason, at least in my opinion, that Adams must have liked playing with Aidan O’Connell late last year was the young quarterback would push him the ball on deeper routes like the post and out-route. Adams still showed plenty of juice to get down the field on those patterns with all the savvy needed to win at the breakpoints. Even when he’s covered, Adams is still a premier ball-winner in tight coverage with a 73.3% contested catch rate last season, even if he randomly had a higher drop rate than we’re used to seeing (8.5%).
Davante Adams still played like an elite wide receiver last season when he isolated via Reception Perception. That’s the goal of RP; production simply never tells us the truth of high-end wide receiver play when put in adverse conditions. He remains a top-five wide receiver in the game. Whether the Raiders can get above-league-average play out of O’Connell (the guy I’d bet on of the two) or Gardner Minshew to support this star pass-catcher is a totally different equation.
I would be happy for the Chargers to trade for him midseason for a late season push. But I think it is an unlikely scenario.
@tau837 Good responses Tau:
- I will watch Receiver and form my own view about Davante. I don’t have much time for players that show any Diva tendences whatsoever, putting self before team, but I will try to keep an open mind!
- Fair response about YAC. I think the YAC stat is less QB dependent than a few of other metrics I listed, but I acknowledge that bad ball placement and certain coverage types would suppress YAC opportunities.
- Matt Harmon’s player profile should be trusted over my simple recitation of stats. I only watched Davante 2x on All-22 last year and Harmon’s deeper analytics suggest he’s not only a Diva, but also an Alpha (still).
I would also be happy, in the right circumstances, to bring in Davante. But let’s be honest, he’ll probably wind up with Rodgers in New York 😜
@alisterlloyd Replying separately on Jefferson. I really dislike the idea of trading a huge package, likely including at least 2 1st round picks plus other valuable picks, and also paying Jefferson a top 10 WR contract, i.e., more than they ever paid Allen or Williams by a large margin.
I recently posted that I’d much rather use the draft to keep quality rookie contracts in the WR depth chart while spending the bigger cap hits on other position groups. I think that approach is going to gain more traction soon.
@tau837 As a general rule for team building, I agree. Are there exceptions to the general rule? Is there space to make an exception for a WR you consider destined for the Hall of Fame? Is Jefferson one of those receivers?
I would be open to the argument that Jefferson is exceptional and worth everything it takes to bring him in. But I also thought Tyreek Hill was the type of player that the Chiefs ought not to have let walk. So, I could be persuaded to adopt the approach you suggest here.
@alisterlloyd My summary of the philosophy of the Hortiz/Harbaugh front office:
- Find and pay your QB (done)
- Focus resources on building OL/DL (in progress)
- Find athletes to play at the boundaries (in progress)
- Look for “buy low” opportunities in trades/FA
In what I expect will be another shitty season with shitty QB play, Adams production will decline (and the bruises will increase). His contract situation should set up a “buy low” opportunity.
If the Jets are in contention (which is a huge IF), I think they would be the front-runners in any trade. If the Jets suck and/or Rogers is hurt, then the Chargers, Ravens, Rams or even the 49ers (depending on what happens with Aiyuk) could be a landing spot.
If I were the Jets, I would be calling Tommy now to see what it would take to get Adams reunited with Rogers.
@kevdiego Kev, I agree the most likely target is the Jets. Adams could reunite with Rodgers and the Jets are in desperate “win now” mode. This FO is on the hottest of seats. Without a playoff birth and maybe even a win or two there, the coach will definitely be gone and possibly the GM also. They have nothing to lose to bring him in, and probably don’t care about the immediate future of draft picks as well, since they are banking all their success on Rodgers short tenure there. Add in the fact that LAC is a bitter divisional rival and I think the cost will be way to prohibitive to acquire Adams. Plus, if the Raiders got off to a .500 or better record the first 6 weeks under Pierce and theoretically are in the playoff mix, would they even think of dealing him? I am guessing that they would not.
@evolz3737 Great points – I agree that the Jets are the most likely trading partner. However, I do not think the Raiders are going to be at .500 or better at the end of October. Their schedule:
- @pistol495 LAC: Loss. The Chargers have a score to settle. FTR
- @ Ravens: Loss
- Carolina: Win
- Cleveland: Loss
- @ Denver: Win
- Steelers: Loss
- @ LAR: Loss
- KC: Loss
That’s 2-6 at the trade deadline. They may be able to sneak in a win against Cleveland, Pittsburg or us, but, without a QB, I can’t see them being any better that 3-5 at the deadline
@kevdiego 3-5 is only 1 win away from 4-4, but 3-5 would have them “in the mix” in the playoff graphics. As we saw last year, there was a ton of muddled teams hovering around .500 that were fighting for a playoff spot into the latter fourth of the season. Unless they were a bad 2-5 or worse, I can’t believe the Raiders would be looking to sell off their best pieces at the deadline and start the tank with a new HC and eight or so games left to go, especially if they are theoretically a game or 2 out of a WC spot. Personally, I don’t think Adams gets dealt in season. If anything, that would be an offseason move involving better picks.
@evolz3737 The other reason why a trade won’t happen is because Telesco is allergic to making in-season moves.
To get this to happen, Adams would have to get super-frustrated with shit QB play & losing and start making public statements about how bad the situation is.
Adams contract almost assures that he will not be a Raider in 2025. Trading Davante for something in-season is better than cutting him for nothing after the season. Not sure if Tommy is smart enough to think that far in advance, but the contract could give him some good air cover if he does decide to pull the trigger on a trade.
@alisterlloyd You make very valid points. My counter-argument:
- Adam’s 2023 production was impacted by shit coaching and shit QB play. In (I think) episode 3, there’s a bunch of highlights of balls thrown behind him, which led to him taking hits. On one play, he gets laid out. That’s all on the QB & shit offensive coaching
- While Adams may have wanted to (and did) get paid, he seems to want a championship now to cap his career.
- Adams contract situation:
- 2025 (age: 33): $44.1 M cap hit, $15.7M dead cap
- 2026 (age: 34): $44.1 M cap hit, $7.85M dead cap
- Jefferson’s contract situation:
- 2025 (age: 26): $15.3 M cap hit, $80.2M dead cap
- 2026 (age 27): $39.1M cap hit, $40.9M dead cap
Jefferson’s age and relatively manageable contract (at least in 2025) makes him much more expensive. I can’t see the Vikings trading him for anything less than multiple 1st. Adams, due to his age and relatively small dead cap could be acquired for a mid or even late round pick. The Raiders are going to have to waive him at the end of the season. Getting something for him would be a positive move for the Raiders in what I expect will be a lost season. Then again, Telesco is their GM, and we all know Tommy is allergic to making in-season trades.
I watched Jim Harbaugh’s presser yesterday. One thing that continues to stand out to me is their defense of QJ. He called Johnston one of the best players on the team. I know part of this is to help Quentin’s confidence as he enters year #2 after a sub-par rookie year, but I almost feel like this entire offseason the coaching staff has been defending QJ. On the first day of training camp yesterday he looked good. But I remember that happening last year too. This is a big year for him.
@lfg_boltz Completely agree that this is a big year for QJ. If he sucks again this year, the “bust” label will be affixed firmly to his ass.
I think Harbaugh is very good at speaking strategically. He needs to build confidence in QJ. I’m sure he means what he’s saying, but I also think the objective of the praise is to build up a guy who looked very un-prepared in 2023. The Chargers need to get QJ ready to play physically. QJ needs to understand the offense (which I think should be a bit simpler). And the coaching staff needs to get QJ to believe in himself.
@lfg_boltz Look, with a new staff coming in that has no ties to him, speaking well of him initially, is the diplomatic thing to do. However, I don’t believe Harbaugh will coddle players who aren’t performing. Better to come in with a clean slate attitude and let the chips fall after that. Personally, and I hope I am wrong, I feel the flaws are to ingrained to be changed and overcome. How many high pointed balls are we continually going to see QJ jump to body catch? If this staff can’t coach that out nobody can.
The key to what you said Erick is the “ingrained” part. I remember when Tim Tebow came into the league and QB coaches were trying to change his passing delivery and he would spend a bunch of time in the offseason working on it, but when the “live fire” came in games he reverted back to what was ingrained. It is really hard to “uncoach” bad habits that have formed over a decade between High School & College careers. Football is a very “in the heat of a moment sport” and when you are running full speed, a corner hanging all over you, a safety bearing down on you, I think that you forget the “technique” at times and go to what was ingrained over many years. This will be a challenge that worriedly I think may never get fixed and the Chargers may need to move on at some point. It is certainly not a good look that he is getting reps with the second team and that a rookie 2nd round pick (Ladd McConkey), former 3rd round pick (Josh Palmer), and lower budget free agent (DJ Chark) are all in front of him. With the departure of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Jalen Guyton the fact that Quentin is still not on the field as a starter is disturbing.
I am not throwing him out in the trash at this point, but this current situation is a bit alarming. I am officially nervous at this point that Telesco blew another first round pick.
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