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So Harbaugh says he plans no coaching changes. Disappointed, but not surprised.
As to drafting BPA, you absolutely draft BPA if that player falls in a position of need. That pretty much means drafting the BPA, except for QB, OT, K, and probably S, due to this roster’s limitations. Of course, FA will affect this draft strategy.
Re: BPA, I will restate something here that I have posted many times in the past. There typically is no clear consensus BPA, at least not past the first few picks in the first round. There are always tiers of players who are best available. That means it is often possible to pick a player at a position of need while also meeting the BPA concept. This also helps get around the issue of the supposed BPA being at a position a team does not remotely need (e.g., Chargers should not consider drafting QB).
What the BPA philosophy really means is: don’t reach for a player at a position of need. Instead, always draft a player from the currently available tier of BPAs.
@tau837 Bingo. It is not a blind strategy to just draft the highest graded player available regardless of position. if that were the case Bowers would have been a top 7 pick last year, if not higher. Unless a player of extreme value falls that is not necessarily a position of need (Example: Derwin), you take the best player in that tier that fits your need. You don’t grab a player with a grade a round lower just to fill the position. So as it stands right now I think positions like Edge, CB, IOL, DL, TE are in play in Rd1
@evolz3737 @tau837 I’ve always said, as you both are saying, that BPA must be balanced with need to have a successful process. It is RARE where you can just take BPA with no regard for need. That would require a roster that is nearly impossible to build given the cap restrictions.
This article, except for the part about Harbaugh’s off-season medical plans and disagreement about coaching staff (looking at you, Roman) could have been written here. 🙂
@evolz3737 Teams also have to weigh in positional value too. When you’re paying a QB $50M+, then you need to find cheap top tier talent at the other most expensive positions and the highest odds of attaining good talent at those positions is from high draft picks. I’m not saying you can’t nail a later round pick, but the odds go down dramatically.
If you drafted back-to-back-to-back first rounds with G, C and TE then there would be a very high probability that you are either screwed from a cap perspective or just have a dearth of talent at the most expensive positions.
@tau837 What does clear consensus have to do with it?
If a team’s philosophy is take BPA, then it’s THEIR BPA. I’m not necessarily saying that is Hortiz’s philosophy but simply saying “Consensus” from analyst mocks/rankings is absolutely meaningless to anyone actually making decisions. Only people that care are idiots like us who comment on the internet.
@blue-beers Of course it is their BPA. What I’m saying is that there is not always a single BPA at every pick on a given team’s draft board. In fact, I think that is rare. I think it is more likely there is typically a group of similarly graded players available.
We know this to be true anecdotally even within a given organization. We had the story from the 2023 draft where the Chargers wanted JSN, but when he was drafted before their pick, the principals were divided… Staley liked Flowers, WR Coach Beatty liked Addison, and Telesco and Moore both liked Johnston. They decided on Johnston because Moore convinced them in the moment that Johnston could become their Ceedee Lamb (LOL).
Every team has their “cluster” of usually 3-5 players per round, plus an overall big board that varies per team too. At least that’s what I’ve always read/heard.
@buck-melanoma Everyone here is correct. I read Ernie Accorsi’s book about his years in the league as a GM. From what I read, every draft eligible player gets a grade. From there they make a big board strictly from the grades and also a board for each position.
Now as players get taken, they can see where the value is. Let’s say they have 5 LB graded between 85-83, but only 2 OG rated there and you need both positions, you take the OG because by the time you pick again, there is a chance there is a LB you like in the same range available or if it’s getting close to your pick and only 1 or 2 are left you can trade up to get one of the guys you liked. Of course, if the grades were not close on both positions and you took an OG that was graded 75, just because you needed an OG, that is a reach and what most people consider the wrong approach. By constructing your board this way, you are able to see the value of every player remaining, what positions are deepest with your grades, and also see which players of high grades are slipping.
On the flip side, if you needed an OG and a LB, but when it was time for you to draft there was a DL with a 93 grade still available, what do you do? Do you take the player because the grade is to good to pass up? Do you try and trade the pick and ask for a little more knowing what the grade is on the player? Do you think there is a reason he’s falling that you don’t know about, and you should pass on him as well? Well good luck, you have 10 mins to decide.
He also said that high in the first round when almost every player is available, teams can just lock in on one player they fall in love with, even if the grades and need don’t match just to secure that player. Kind of like what the Falcons did with Penix last year. On paper they didn’t need a QB, but they loved him and knew they weren’t getting him later, so they took him at #8.
This is why I say it’s a blended approach. You aren’t blindly taking the highest graded player when your pick is up and you aren’t just taking a position you need, grades be damned. Now there is no telling what grades certain teams give players. Bad staffs/owners tend to value different attributes that cloud their grades. That’s how you get players like Clelin Ferrell, John Ross, Vernon Gholston and Darius Heyward-Bey’s over drafted.
@evolz3737 The Horizontal Board is really helpful for making some of those decisions because it lets you see where the Positional Depth lies when making those choices. Rob Staton is a great follow for Draft Coverage and does a lot of player interviews too and this is his current board for example. A lot of his Defensive prospects will be scheme specific for the Chargers due to the crossover of Minter and MacDonald.
For example I think a lot of teams will view the Center class similar to how he’s graded them where there just aren’t that many prospects worth focusing on (Senior Bowl can change that) but you may find yourself in a spot where if you’re choosing between a Guard, Center, Edge or DT that the sheer lack of Center’s may have take the equally rated Center knowing that once they’re gone, the drop-off is more severe.
@duck07 This is a great sketch. It is what I was describing above. Players are graded and tiered so you know where the depth is at every position.
On the flip side, if you needed an OG and a LB, but when it was time for you to draft there was a DL with a 93 grade still available, what do you do? Do you take the player because the grade is to good to pass up? Do you try and trade the pick and ask for a little more knowing what the grade is on the player? Do you think there is a reason he’s falling that you don’t know about, and you should pass on him as well? Well good luck, you have 10 mins to decide.
In this case you have to take the DL with the 93 grade. That’s a no brainer.
For starters it was harder to find good DL than G and LB to begin (hence the huge avg salary disparity). If you can get elite talent at a premium cost position then you have to take it every time. Also, there is a significantly higher chance of finding a G or LB with a “lower grade” who will just fit into your system and there are also way more potential LB and G prospects every year who have a legit chance of sticking in the NFL compared to DL. That’s why there are a lot of UDFA LBers in the league and almost no UDFA DL stick.
Raiders HC Candidates:
– Lions OC Ben Johnson
– Lions DC Aaron Glenn
– Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo
– Ravens OC Todd Monken
– Former Jets HC Robert Saleh
– Former Seahawks HC Pete Carroll
– Broncos DC Vance Joseph
– Former DC/Panther HC (and Chargers DC): Ron Rivera
I think Johnson is going to have his pick of jobs. If I were him, I would take the Jags job. Decent roster. Shit division. Warm location with zero income tax.
I think the Raiders will have some $ to spend as again, they are #2 in revenue. The issue with the Raiders job is that, in a division with Reid/Mahomes & Herbert/Harbaugh (and to a lesser extent, Payton/Nix), their roster is not great and they have no QB. Winning is going to be a challenge for the Raiders. I think they’ll end up throwing a bag at Carroll, which should make them better, but still fighting for 3rd in the division.
My preference on this list is Spagnuolo. He sucks as a HC and it fucks up the Chiefs.
@kevdiego My ordering of these candidates from worst (I most want Raiders to hire) to best (I least want Raiders to hire):
- Spags – Kev’s reasons
- Joseph – known, no reason to believe he will be significantly better than his first HC stint
- Carroll – old, so likely will be a short timer, and I think game has passed him by
- Rivera – known entity, not necessarily a terrible coach but would be overmatched in this division
- Saleh – didn’t do great without a QB on the Jets, wouldn’t have a QB with Raiders… though in hindsight, it doesn’t really look like he was the problem with the Jets, which is why he ranks as my least preferred hire among the knowns… I think he has more upside than Rivera or Carroll
- Glenn – unknown, not too worried about him, but he was mentored by Campbell, who IMO might be the #1 draft choice if all coaches were thrown into a head coach draft today due to combination of age and performance/potential… so there could be some real upside here if the mentoring helped
- Monken – unknown, but more worried about unknown offensive HC than defensive HC (Glenn)
- Johnson – unknown, but see Glenn and Monken
@tau837 For a coach that wants to win, the Raiders have to be the worst option of all openings. Having 3 SB coaches in the division, preparing to play 2 (possibly 3 depending on how you feel about Nix) top-15 (10?) QBs twice every year. Outside of the Raiders, the AFC-W is stacked with coaching and QB talent. With a questionable roster and no QB, getting the Raiders out of the basement and competitive with three playoff teams is going to be a challenge.
The advantage the Raiders have is money. They are 2nd in the NFL in revenue and Nevada has no state income tax. Mark can make it worth a coaches wile to coach in LV. For that reason, my guess is that they end up with one of the vet coaches. Glenn (who had a bad day yesterday), Monken and especially Johnson can afford to be picky and can really fuck up their careers if they make a bad choice. My guess is that Pete grabs a big bag of $ from Davis & makes the Raiders better, but competing for 3 place/wild card.
I don’t disagree with your order. Salah didn’t handle the Jets well, but the man can coach a defense. Outside of Johnson and maybe Monken, none of these coaches scare me. Since I don’t think that either of them will be interested in working for the Raiders, I think the best bad decision for the Raiders is Carroll. Since I hate the Raiders, this makes me very happy. FTR.
@kevdiego I’m not sure anyone will blame Glenn for yesterday. Their defense was decimated by injuries, missing 9 of the 19 players who played defensive snaps in week 1, including 5 or 6 starters, and then they lost another starting CB during the game.
One thing you overlooked that the Raiders have is Brady. It seems like he is impacting organizational decisions. Not sure if that will ultimately turn out to be a good thing or a bad thing.
@tau837 Fair point. It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, Tom will have on the Raiders ability to identify and hire a quality HC.
Not sure where Vrable was on their list – I would put him above everyone on their list not named Johnson. If there was an interest, it took Mike 2 seconds to determine that he would much rather play in a division with zero SB coaches and 1 playoff team vs. the AFC-W. Personally, I think that’s a great decision.
@kevdiego Don’t have to worry about Johnson in the AFCW. Looks like he’s taking the Bears job. Dumb IMO. He has the worst ownership in the division and he’s going against three playoff teams, not to mention directly competing against the team that gave him his shot. This was not a great cycle. He turned down better opportunities last year. I would have chosen Jax this time, or just waited another year. The Lions will be good again, so it wouldn’t hurt his resume to wait another year and who knows, maybe Cincy or Pittsburgh or Giants come open next year which are all better spots than anything open this year.
@evolz3737 Yea, I wouldn’t have picked the Bears either & agree that Jax was the better opportunity (especially with that shitty division).
I have to believe he’s enamored with Williams (after making Geoff look like a top-10 QB, it will be interesting to see what he can do in Chicago).
Just took a quick look at S&B Pride – they were definitely counting on Johnson. They now have a bunch of bad choices, which makes me very happy.
@kevdiego I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Johnson did not take the JAX job because of GM Balke. Khan has no idea what he’s doing.
That said, I agree that the Bears job is not appealing. I think it is very possible Caleb is overrated, tough division, plus living in Chicago vs. other more appealing locations.
@tau837 For as much as I didn’t think the Raiders was a good situation, I think the Bears are only slightly better from a roster standpoint, but expectations are going to be high in year 1. Agree that Balke is a problem.
Watching how the coaching hiring is going this year, I’m impressed that the Spanos family was able to pull off a very good GM/coach search last year, yielding (my opinion) great hires. I was pleasantly shocked last year and appreciate the way they supported their new staff in 2024.
Indication the Raiders are totally fucked: Raider fans are now clamoring for Telesco back.
What might Ben Johnson find appealing about the Bears job? It’s a good question.
Surely, it would have to be some combination of:
- He likes Caleb Williams’ tape and thinks he could be a star in the right system.
- He prefers building an Offense with Caleb on a rookie deal, from the ground-up > T-Lawrence on his big contract.
- Chance to be the saviour of a Tiffany-franchise. If it works, he’s eternally loved like Mike Ditka.
- Relishes the challenge of competing against his former boss in a tough division. Also knows the Division intimately which potentially helps with off-season planning.
- Healthy cap situation (Bears have the 5th most cap space in 2025 at this stage, sitting at ~$66m, per OTC)
- Bones of a decent Defense in place
- OL potentially not as bad as people externally think if Caleb can stop holding the ball so long. Darnell Wright and Teven Jenkins have upside as athletic people movers if Ben Johnson wants to build another strong running game.
Obviously there would be reasons not to work there, including some of the vibes around Caleb’s rookie year and, most notably, ownership. I heard James Palmer (formerly of NFL network) on a podcast last week claiming that Ryan Poles (their GM) is a glorified puppet and George McCaskey is heavily involved in personnel decision-making. That doesn’t bode so well.
However, I’ve given up predicting whether coordinators will or won’t become good head coaches. Aaron Glenn’s Defenses, statistically, over the course of his career don’t warrant HC interviews. Yet everyone seems to like him and maybe he’ll be a great head coach as a strong people manager. By contrast, Ben Johnson’s Offense is at the forefront of creativity in the NFL. Yet maybe in this role, he’ll stretch himself too thin if he thinks he can still be the mad scheming scientist while managing the team. Nobody knows.
I get why others think Johnson hould have waited until the next hiring cycle (Giants, and other jobs, potentially avalable). But I sympathise with him taking the money and security now while his stock is high. Already some people are criticising his choices in the Divisional Round to run trick plays, etc. I can’t blame him for taking a job given how Goff performed in that game.
@alisterlloyd You bring up an interesting point: What is the ideal career path to become a great NFL Head Coach? A look at a few coaches:
- Jim Harbaugh:
- 14 Years playing QB in the NFL
- 7 years working part-time with his dad (the HC at Western Kentucky) – done concurrently with playing in the NFL
- 1 year as the Raiders QB coach – the only full-time non-HC position he’s held
- 3 years HC at SDU – very successful, led to…
- 4 years HC at Stanford
- 4 years HC for the 49ers
- 9 years HC for Michigan
- 1+ year HC for Chargers
- Kevin O’Connell (who I think should have been in the HC of the year discussion):
- Starting QB for a very good SDSU team, the bounced around the NFL for 5 years
- 3 years as a QB coach
- 3 years as an OC
- 2+ years as HC for the Vikes
- Sean Payton:
- Played QB in college and 2 years professionally
- 9 years as a positional (QB, RB) coach at various colleges
- 3 years as an NFL QB coach
- 3 years as “assistant HC & QB coach” for the Cowboys
- 15 years as HC for the Saints
- 2+ years as HC for Denver
While not the only factor, more ex-QBs seem to become quality HCs in the league. Most had mediocre playing careers (Harbaugh is the exception to that rule) – Not a lot of Tom Brady/Payton Manning’s want to do the work to be a successful HC. Maybe Rivers changes that at some point?
Johnson was a backup QB in college. He now has 15 year of positional coaching experience – all on the offensive side. Will that translate into success as an NFL HC? His background is similar to O’Connell, so it’s possible. I think the intangibles (organization, coaching staff – especially DC) will be a key factor in his success.
@kevdiego This made me curious. These are the head coaches of this year’s playoff teams:
- KC – Reid – offensive background, OL
- BUF – McDermott – defensive background
- BAL – John Harbaugh – diverse coaching experience, but mostly special teams
- HOU – Ryans – defensive background
- LAC – Jim Harbaugh – offensive background, QB
- PIT – Tomlin – defensive background
- DEN – Payton – offensive background, QB
- DET – Campbell – offensive background, TE
- PHI – Sirianni – offensive background, WR
- LAR – McVay – college DB, offensive coaching background
- TB – Bowles – defensive background
- MIN – O’Connell – offensive background, QB
- GB – LaFleur – offensive background, QB
- WAS – Quinn – defensive background
More ex-QBs than anything and skewed to offensive coaches, which is no surprise.
@tau837 Interesting. I wonder if playing QB gives you an advantage as a HC (leadership, decision making) or if successfully playing QB requires skills similar to an HC?
Minor point – I believe McVey was a QB in High School. From Wikipedia:
He was a four-year starter at Marist as a quarterback and defensive back for the War Eagles high school football team and the first player in school history to amass 1,000 yards rushing and passing in consecutive seasons. McVay totaled 2,600 yards rushing and 40 rushing touchdowns during his career and also passed for 2,500 yards and 18 touchdowns
@kevdiego Yes on McVay, but he played DB in college. I wouldn’t personally ascribe any importance to playing QB in high school, especially given he rushed for more and TDs than he gained passing.
@evolz3737 Yes. I never said being a QB was a key indicator of being a GOOD NFL HC – Just noticing that a lot of successful NFL coaches played QB.
@kevdiego Sorry Kev, should have used sarcastic font 🤣 🤣. Of course we hire the absolute worst HC from the previous college QB list.
@alisterlloyd As you know I live in Jets/Giants country and a big factor in Glenn probably becoming the HC is that he was a draft pick for the organization, he knows Woody, and he is perceived as a no bullshit type of program guy, which is exactly what this organization needs. This hire is as much about appeasing a fanbase at the ready with torches and pitchforks, as it is about hiring the right program builder for the job. I think he will be a colossal bust with the Jets on his first HC gig. This organization is such a bumbling disaster it is screaming for an experienced HC, and mostly an offensive one. Outside of Gase, all their recent hires were first time, defensive HC: Rex, Saleh, Bowles, Edwards. Outside of the two seasons with Rex getting to AFCCG, there has been nothing special here, and all have failed and flamed out miserably. I think Glenn would have been better in NO, where the expectations aren’t for immediate success given their cap issues and shaky QB situation. He would have had time there to be patient, take the cap hits to reset the team, find the future at QB and start to build the program. Where is he exactly with the Jets? They are perceived (incorrectly IMO) as a team flush with talent that just needs a strong HC. Are they? They have a 41 yr old QB, that looks like a shell of himself under contract for one more year. They do not have a viable young replacement in place at QB (Jordan Travis’ knee injury could be a career ender), they have the 7th pick in a weak QB draft, they have two WR in Wilson and Adams who are on opposite sides of leaving pending if Rodgers comes back, and they have no GM currently in place. Not to mention the biggest issue: the bumbling, meddling owner. I know you have to strike while the iron is hot for a HC gig, but not all jobs are created equal, and I would not want to have my first gig be associated with such a circus. Of course, if you win in spite of all these factors, your star shines nuclear hot, but if not, it could damage your prospects for the future. Easier for us to call for waiting when we are not the ones to have our career end game in sight though.
@kevdiego I don’t think Pete Carrol would be a bad hire there. They need somebody who can come in and right the ship to at least be competent. That would be an All Star coaching division. I do not see him being there 5 years with his age, but if he is able to come in for 3 years and just get the franchise to be operating professionally, maybe he can hand it over to someone who is qualified.
People think Brady is going to have a big hand in hiring. How can that be? He is going to be broadcasting the Super Bowl and NFC Championship game. Are the Raiders going to wait till after the SB to fill both spots? How can he be interviewing people from other organizations that might be involved in his broadcast? I think his involvement is overblown and will be a conflict until he quits the booth. But even then, just because he was a great player doesn’t mean he will know his ass from his elbow running a team. Example: Michael Jordan
@evolz3737 If a team hires Carroll as head coach, he will officially become the oldest head coach in NFL history on April 3, surpassing Romeo Crennel’s age on his last day. I agree it wouldn’t be reasonable to expect him to be there for 5 years… and why would any team hire a head coach that they expect at that time will not last as its head coach for 5+ years?
That said, I’m not sorry to see the Raiders hire him if that happens.
@evolz3737 I think Michael Jordan is a great comp. It sounds like Tom wants to dip in/out rather than diving in full-time (like Elway did with the Broncos). Not sure that’s going to help dig the Raiders out of their 20 year slump. My guess is that it hurts more than helps, which again, makes me very happy.
The compensatory pipeline begins.
Posted this at BFTB because it is actually more friendly for making a post with pictures of tables (or maybe I just don’t know how to do it effectively here): 2025 Roster Thoughts – Entering Offseason
This doesn’t really seem like the right place to post this, but can repost if it becomes clear where we are going to discuss the offseason.
@tau837 I love the posts you do on roster and cap costs, man! Thanks a billion (seems like we’re beyond millions in this new world,eh?)
However, as I posted, there are 30+ Chargers players who are FA and Harbaugh seems to have a sweet spot for many of them. Our effective cap space?
@kathmandusteve here’s an initial stab at the cap situation by Popper to further support Tau’s good work. 👍🏼
@buck-melanoma Thanks, man! I have a hard time seeing these since I’ve not suscribed to the NYT or Athletic. But in this case I was able to do a quick copy/paste to read the article. Doesn’t yet say anything more than we’ve been discussing. There’s a long list of Chargers FAs, but no analysis yet on what it’ll take to get the cream from that list back on the squad.
Tau, yes, your analysis is worthy of a separate thread.
@buck-melanoma Yeah. maybe we can get an offseason/draft/free agency section to place all the roster moves and player comps and stuff?
@buck-melanoma sure thing! Just need another day or two – we remodeled our garage and my office has been a storage unit l/flex space. I’m hoping to “get to work” on the offseason this weekend when I can sit back at my desk again and plug away
@buck-melanoma no worries Buck! I’m getting super stir crazy. The garage is taking weeks longer than expected, and the contractor has a day of work of stuff I need help with in the office before I can set my computer up. Once it’s dialed in Ryan and I are hoping to be really active with PowderKeg and StormCloud
@tau837 You always do such a great job on these – THANK YOU for taking the time to research & write such great posts. Hopefully we can figure out how to get this posted on the front page. A few comments:
- I know everyone is writing Bosa off and they may be right. His cap hit is not aligned with his on-field production. The counter-point:
- Joey played more snaps in 2024 (456) than he played 2023 (320) and 2022 (165). Joey was hurt early in the season and clearly was not 100% the rest of the way, but he was available
- I thought Joey looked elite week 1. He was also very good against the Texans in the playoffs. The skill is still there.
- Joey will be 30 this season.
- The bet with Joey is that Ben Herbert can continue to make Joey harder to break. If the availability remains and the elite skills return, Joey could be a force in 2025.
- Nice to see JC Jackson off the books.
- I thought Tyler McLellan, who is 6’8″ 355 LBS looked amazing in pre-season. If he comes back from his knee injury, I think he has a very good chance at swing tackle. It would be fun to watch edge players try to go around Alt and McLellan on downs where the Chargers bring in an extra OL.
@kevdiego I’m working on another post now about free agents.
Bottom line: I’m going to project that the Chargers sign KC G Trey Smith, CIN WR Tee Higgins, and re-sign 14 internal free agents: Edge Mack, IDL Ford, IDL Tart, C Bozeman, RB Dobbins, CB Fulton, S Molden, QB Heinicke, P Scott, LB Dye, S Jefferson, TE Fisk, TE Smartt, OT Sarell. All of that — most notably Smith, Higgins, Mack, Ford — cannot be done without clearing Bosa’s cap hit. At least not without some other surprising moves.
I’m sure all of what I project will not come to pass. Hortiz is too active to predict all of his moves. But I think it should be in the ballpark.
With regard to Joey, IMO it probably comes down to Joey vs. Mack. If Mack will sign for 2 more seasons at $20M AAV, how does that compare to Joey? Will Joey take a pay cut to $20M this season? I doubt it. And Joey has not been able to stay on the field for multiple seasons now, whereas Mack has seemed more available despite his more advanced age. And there is no question in my mind that Mack is the stronger leader of the two. I’m going with Mack.
I’ll project Sarell as a minimum salary player. Could he be beaten out by McLellan? Absolutely.
Hopefully will be able to post it tonight. If not, tomorrow.
@tau837 looking forward to this. I’ve been tough on Bosa but disregarding that, I’d still take Mack for the big reasons of availability and leadership. They’re likely to draft one or more edges….Mack the mentor is as good as it gets, IMO.
@tau837 Looking forward to the FA post. A few preemptive comments:
- Not sure the Chargers will sign Higgins and not sure they should. The happy path is the dude is healthy and a legitimate threat. Sign Higgins, draft a TE in the 1st and an RB (or 2) on day 3 and this offense looks immensely better (provided they also find a center). The unhappy path is that the hamstring issues, which have limited his playing time in both of the last 2 seasons, continue to be an issue. In the end, I think it’s going to be too much $ for a player with questionable health.
- Even though he’s 4 years older, I agree that Mack is the better use of cap space. Just pointing out that Joey’s season was not the train wreck the previous 2 seasons were. He’s under contract. I would not be surprised to see team friendly extension.
- Are you planning to work a Slater contract into your calculations? I think they could structure that to lower his cap hit in 2025.
- Trey Smith would be great, but I think center is a much more important/urgent need. Drew Dalman is the consensus best center FA available. Quality center play should improve the play of both guards.
1. You have mentioned your reservations with Higgins’ hamstrings before. I think they are overblown, but I understand it. The opportunity to sign a legit 26 year old WR1 for Herbert for the next 5 years is worth the risk IMO.
2. If they keep Joey on a pay cut or “team friendly extension,” it will come with opportunity cost. For example, they won’t be able to sign Higgins or Trey Smith or Ryan Kelly, etc. I have had enough of foregoing those other players for Bosa. Ready to move on. The team needs to inject another highly talented young Edge player into the group that in 2024 included Mack, Bosa, and Dupree. The first round of this draft is the time to do it.
3. I’m generally assuming a Slater extension will happen but will not materially change his current 2025 cap hit.
4. I trust Steven of the Guilty As Charged podcast, as he is a former OL and talks often about OL. He said flat out that there is no potential free agent center available who is a good fit for Roman’s scheme other than Ryan Kelly (and Bozeman). He specifically said Dalman is not a fit. I’m not saying his word is gospel, but, at the same time, I give him reasonable credit for knowing what he is talking about. On top of that, it is very possible Atlanta won’t let Dalman get away (as is also true for Kelly).
Very good two previous BFTB fan posts. The “2025 Roster Thoughts” fan post is appreciated. It’s always very informative to cover cap hits, cap casualties, dead cap, functional cap space, etc. I only go back to read stuff at BFTB by reference only these days.
- Higgins: I concur about Higgins being a high priority signing as I do not believe the team is going in the direction of drafting a WR1/2 this year. It’s too much of an unknown on the hits or misses this team can’t afford at this point at WR. I would prefer they address either TE1, CB1, DT, or Edge in the first two rounds of the draft.
- Bosa/Tuipulotu/Mack: I, too, expect Bosa to be released. His cap hit is just too much considering his injury history, declined in performance, and little to offer in leadership. I believe Tuli is ready to start at his spot. He played very well in Bosa’s place as a starter while he was sitting out with injury last season. Tuli’s stats were very good in that span. He is a legitimate Edge-2. He sets the edge very well and plays both the outside and inside run containment very admirably. I have been a big fan of Bosa but I believe it’s a wise preemptive move to move on from him this year. Mack, however, is a must resign as he’s still an Edge-1 and a fantastic leader.
- Bozeman vs Kelly: I believe the team would either sign Kelly and let Bozeman get signed elsewhere, or resign Bozeman w/out the addition of Kelly. I don’t think Bozeman would welcome the idea of being Center-#2 behind Kelly, or to have Kelly breathing down his neck. Plus, Bozeman wouldn’t have any problem finding another team where he would have the opportunity to start.
- JK Dobbins: I believe JK isn’t going anywhere. He’s too valuable to this offense as a dynamic ball carrier and excellent pass pro, and one of the outspoken leaders in the offense. Vidal was average and with very little in pass pro to offer. His snaps were limited bc of it. The team lacks the draft capital to go after the sure hit RB1’s. JK will be very affordable, and to lose him will be a big gamble in the mid rounds of the draft to find a RB1.
- Fulton & Samuel Jr: I, too, believe ASJ is gone. His poor run support has proven to be a liability issue for this defense. When he tries too hard at it, he leads with his head to make tackles in dangerous spots, and often reaches with extended arms which exposed himself to injury. This defense for a long time hasn’t had a true CB1 since after Jason Verrett and Casey Hayward. Fulton is borderline CB2 at the very best. He played well against average wide receivers but against above average WR’s he struggled. I believe a shut-down corner would make the most significant improvement in this defense. For a corner to shut down one half of the field can limit opposing offenses’ pass play calls and renders them predictable. It’s a hell much easier for a DC to game plan having a shut-down corner. Having Jalen Ramsey was the biggest game changer for Staley with the Rams, which obviously assisted in him landing the HC job w/ the Chargers. The FA corners this year aren’t very good. I wouldn’t be surprised if we go CB in first couple rounds of the draft this year.
- Molden & Jefferson: I expect both Elijah and Tony be back. Great pickups by Hortiz. I knew very little about Molden’s game but what a pleasant surprise that was for good of a player he was. For both him and Gilman to man the free safety roles to allow James to man the big nickel and to roam the line and box. I was a fan of Jefferson for a long time and I excited that he came out of a very brief retirement to be a Charger. He is a hell of a football player; high IQ defender, very instinctive, toughness, fantastic in run support roles. and he is another good vocal leader.
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