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It’s nearly July and time to shake off the post-draft doldrums and usher in the pre-season optimism!!
I’m still on the road, headed from central to southern Utah today. 3.5 weeks and roughly 4300 miles into the trip. I’ll try to add my 53 prediction later but, for now, kicking this off with one from Chargers Wire.
6 defensive tackles listed for 5 spots
I did not look at the linked article. Here is my projection:
- Offense (26):
- QB (3) – Herbert, Heinicke, Lance
- RB (4) – Harris, Hampton, Haskins, Sanders
- FB (1) – Matlock
- WR (6) – McConkey, Williams, Harris, Johnston, Davis, Lambert-Smith
- TE (3) – Dissly, Conklin, Gadsden
- OL (9) – LT Slater, LG/C Zion, C/LG Bozeman, RG Becton, RT Alt, G/T Pipkins, G/T Salyer, C James, G Branson
- Defense (24):
- IDL (5) – Tart, Hand, Jones, Caldwell, Eboigbe
- Edge (4) – Mack, Tuli, Dupree, Kennard
- LB (5) – Henley, Colson, Perryman, Dye, Phillips
- CB (5) – Jackson, Still, Hart, St. Juste, Leonard
- S (5) – James, Gilman, Molden, Mickens, Jefferson
- Special Teams (3):
- PK (1) – Dicker
- P (1) – Scott
- LS (1) – Harris
I could see keeping 4 safeties and pushing Jefferson to the practice squad if they want to keep a 6th corner, but Derwin is going to play a lot of slot corner, so not sure that is how they will go.
Injuries will probably lead to change here, and obviously Hortiz could claim or trade for player(s) as he did last season, which would change this breakdown. Those things are unpredictable, so here we are.
@tau837 Based on the information I’ve seen, this is a really good straw man. A few comments:
- RB: I would not write off Vidal quite yet. I’ve seen comments from both Roman and Harbaugh praising his conditioning and progress in his 2nd year. In 2024, he tended to do the “Josh Kelley stop and chop your feet” move. If he can figure out pass pro and hit holes with conviction, I think he’s on the roster, with Sanders on the PS.
- FB: I’ve also read that Matlock wants to play DL full-time, opening a spot for Klotz
- WR: I can see a possibility for Lambert-Smith landing on IR with Reagor making the team. Something with LS does not seem right physically
- OL: I think this is the right mix. Will be interested to see who lands where and who they keep on the PS
- IDL: Ogbonnia out? He ate a lot of snaps last year. I didn’t think he was great last year, so I think I agree with this position. Just pointing out that he produced a lot of healthy snaps in 2024.
- S: Jefferson gives them a lot of roster flexibility. I expect they will use that flexibility to protect a player if needed.
RB: I would not write off Vidal quite yet. I’ve seen comments from both Roman and Harbaugh praising his conditioning and progress in his 2nd year. In 2024, he tended to do the “Josh Kelley stop and chop your feet” move. If he can figure out pass pro and hit holes with conviction, I think he’s on the roster, with Sanders on the PS.
The Chargers had at least 1 RB inactive in all 18 games last season: Dobbins 4 games on IR; Edwards 4 games on IR + weeks 17-18; Vidal the other 8 games. This seems to show they could actually get by with 3 RBs on the 53 man roster if they wanted to.
If we assume Harris and Hampton will stay off IR this season, there may not be room for Vidal to be active, since Haskins is a core special teams player, and Vidal basically doesn’t play special teams (6 snaps). Even if Haskins got hurt, it isn’t clear Vidal could be an adequate replacement. We don’t know yet if Sanders could be a quality special teams player.
FB: I’ve also read that Matlock wants to play DL full-time, opening a spot for Klotz
Where did you read that? I would be surprised if he said that, since it could jeopardize his chance at FB and thus his chance at making the final roster.
I don’t think there is a full-time IDL roster spot for him, since I don’t see him bumping any of these players off the final roster, barring injuries: Campbell, Tart, Hand, Jones, Eboigbe. I doubt Matlock could slot in ahead of Ogbonnia, who I think is going to be the odd man out.
However, if Matlock can stick at fullback, he offers extra value by being able to play some defensive snaps, and I think the coaching staff values that.
WR: I can see a possibility for Lambert-Smith landing on IR with Reagor making the team. Something with LS does not seem right physically
I agree, I could see this. My projection assumes no injuries to the 53 I projected, and KLS has been working through some kind of injury.
IDL: Ogbonnia out? He ate a lot of snaps last year. I didn’t think he was great last year, so I think I agree with this position. Just pointing out that he produced a lot of healthy snaps in 2024.
Agree, this is a tough call, especially since the group I projected has not generally played a lot of snaps. However, the group I projected were all brought in by Hortiz, et al., and Ogbonnia was not. And, as you point out, he didn’t play particularly well last season.
I posted this in another thread recently about IDL snaps:
One of the things I haven’t seen talked about much is ability to play defensive snaps. Last season, Chargers IDL players played a combined 2354 snaps. Hand, Jones, Tart, and Eboigbe combined to play 1202 snaps. Campbell played 528 in college last season, but can he play that many as a NFL rookie? Those are the 5 core players in this position group. This will require a big step up in snaps for them.
I think Ogbonnia is effectively roster spot 54. if they could find a way to clear 1 roster spot from another position group (no QB3? no RB4? no WR6?), I think they would keep him as a 6th IDL.
S: Jefferson gives them a lot of roster flexibility. I expect they will use that flexibility to protect a player if needed.
I agree they could do this again. I have become more convinced that they will go with 5 CBs and 5 safeties, as opposed to 6 and 4, because I think they are going to commit even more to playing Derwin at slot CB and dime LB, meaning he really won’t truly be playing safety as much. To some degree, this is semantics, but if he plays a lot of slot corner snaps, it reduces the need for a 6th corner.
Where did you read that? I would be surprised if he said that, since it could jeopardize his chance at FB and thus his chance at making the final roster.
I believe Bischoff said so in a press conference from June 16th.
“Scott wants to a Pro Bowl D tackle,” Bischoff said. “We want to support that as a staff.”
I also understood Bischoff’s comments as Matlock wanting to play full time DL, but Bischoff still wants him to be a hybrid player. Bischoff continued:
“He has visions of himself being an elite defensive player. We have visions of him helping us on offense and how that all works together.”
The Yardbarker article concludes:
“Bischoff didn’t close the door completely on Matlock continuing to play some FB, but it seems as though it will only be on occasion.”
I think Ogbonnia is effectively roster spot 54. if they could find a way to clear 1 roster spot from another position group (no QB3? no RB4? no WR6?), I think they would keep him as a 6th IDL.
Also, could it be possible to have 8 OL with Taylor on PS? Is 9 really a need when we have a lot of versatile players?
I like the idea of going with 8 OL. They had at least 1 OL inactive last season in 17 of 18 games, so they can obviously manage gameday with 8. Plus, if that meant keeping Klotz or Fisk, that is a player who would actually contribute more blocking snaps than the 8th/9th OL.
If they let Lance go to PS and only kept 8 OL, they could keep Ogbonnia and let Klotz and Fisk battle for the final spot.
I would much prefer that to what I posted, which is what I expect, not what I want.
- It will be interesting to see what the Chargers do at RB. The Chargers want to run the ball more and be more physical, they will to rotate RBs to keep legs fresh. I agree with you on the 2-RBs + Haskins active point. Vidal would be injury insurance/depth. The question will be what insurance/depth the Chargers think they need & if they feel Sanders will make it to the PS (or Vidal, for that matter). Harris is good at being available. With the style of football they want to play, I hope they have a plan to keep Hampton fresh for a playoff run. Marty & Norv used to run the shit out of Tomlinson all season. By the time the playoffs came around, Ladinian was beat. I believe Michael Turner outgained Tomlinson in every Charger playoff game of that era.
- I heard the Matlock wanted to focus on being an “all-pro defensive lineman” on one of the podcasts (I THINK it was Chargers Weekly, but my aging brain could be wrong)
- I think I agree that its smart to try to keep an additional body for the IDL rotation. I think Trey Lance will make it to the PS and I know Jefferson will. Difficult roster decisions upcoming.
I dont think the team carries either Vidal or Haskins. I only think they carry 3 total halfbacks. Haskins would have to be better on STs than an extra safety. I dont think he is
Haskins was a “core 4” special teams player last year:
- Kickoff coverage: 98 of 98 snaps (100%), tied for 1st on team
- Punt coverage: 79 of 79 snaps (100%), tied for 1st on team
- Kickoff return: 73 of 80 snaps (91%), tied for 4th on team
- Punt return: 58 of 64 snaps (91%), 3rd on team
- Total: 308 of 321 “core 4” snaps (96%), 4th on team
In addition, his PFF special teams grade (70.2) was 6th on the team among players who played at least 100 special teams snaps, and 2 of the 5 players with better grades (Niemann and Quarterman) are gone.
In addition to all that, his cap hit is vet minimum ($1.1M).
I view him as a lock to make the final 53 man roster unless he gets hurt.
I don’t see why you equated keeping him to him having to be better than “an extra safety.” My roster projection in this thread includes 5 safeties and Haskins, and I certainly don’t think there is much of a chance they will keep 6 safeties.
BTW, PFF graded him better than 7 of the 8 Chargers safeties who played special teams last season. Maye is the only one with a better grade, but he played just 11 special teams snaps, so it is not a meaningful sample.
@tau837 thanks I dont think Haskins can provide more than another safety could on STs. I should add I’m not talking about just this year. Sometimes roster decisions especially STs ones are made going forward eg having a player (rookie under control for 4 years) vs one year eg Haskins. So if youre upset that I added another safety then call the player a CB, LB or WR whatever the point I am trying to make is I’d rather have another DB, LB, or WR (especially one under team control for more than just a year and a maybe add to this a higher ceiling. In conclusion my overall point is there’s no need to keep a 4th RB epecially one with a known ceiling, one year of control, a 70 STs grade meh (you said it yourself). I just think the roster could be upgraded there’s numerous players coming for that spot just my thoughts Tau always love you takes bro. instead of saying Im wrong why dont we argue about who could take this spot I just opened up on your roster
@ennea Haskins is not the 4th RB. He’s the 3rd RB. Because of special teams. Respectfully, you may not like it, but IMO that’s a fact barring injury.
Who could possibly take his roster spot by virtue of being a stronger special teams candidate?
Another RB? I doubt it. Vidal played 6 special teams snaps last season despite being active in 10 games. He doesn’t seem to have it. Maybe Sanders, but we don’t really know if he can play special teams yet.
A safety? I doubt it. As I already noted, I already expect 5 safeties to make the final 53 man roster, and I don’t think they will keep 6. Mickens should be one of them barring injury, and I expect he will play a lot of special teams snaps, along with Haskins.
A LB? I doubt it. I already projected them to keep 5, and I don’t see them keeping 6. I already expect LBs Dye and Phillips to both play heavy special teams snaps, along with Haskins.
A CB? I doubt it. I project them to keep 5 safeties, which likely means keeping just 5 CBs. CB Leonard should play plenty of specical teams snaps, and I’m guessing St. Juste will as well, since he played 124 special teams snaps for Washington last season. Alongside Haskins.
A WR? I don’t see McConkey, Williams, Harris, or Johnston playing a lot of special teams. Davis will be a returner, but that’s it. That leaves WR6, whether Reagor or KLS, to presumably play some special teams snaps. I don’t see any WR taking Haskins’ roster spot, thought.
As noted, I think Haskins will make it and be a core 4 ST player in 2025, barring injury.
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