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The Chargers’ defense got absolutely manhandled by Tampa Bay’s offense in every which way. There was nothing Jesse Minter could do to stop Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and their dynamic running backs from marching up and down the field. Liam Coen has gone under appreciated as one of the better offensive coordinators this season and he proved his mettle once again by finding ways to pull apart what has been a consistent defense all season.
The Bengals and Ravens managed to put up 57 points in back to back games but last week’s 40 points surrendered was an entirely different story. The two AFC North teams played the game of talent by exposing where the Chargers lack the athleticism with a roster bolstered by bargain contracts. The Buccaneers were the first team to slice straight through the scheme and if Jim Harbaugh and his staff don’t do something differently over the last three games of the season, Coen may have just given the Broncos, Patriots and Raiders the blueprint to how to put up big numbers to make the path to the playoffs more challenging.
How Liam Coen broke Minter’s system
To summarise just what went wrong on Sunday, there were three key areas that the Buccaneers attacked with great success:
- Minter’s favorite Cover 6 on early downs
- Lack of run stopping linebackers
- The mismatch pass rush
On early downs, Jesse Minter’s overreliance on Cover 6 was exposed by way of the Dagger concept. Coen is not the first coordinator to use it with success against the Bolts this season but he managed to make it work to an even better degree by playing with the Chargers’ coverage rules with clever underneath routes and motions. Both of these tools were successful in forcing the linebackers to stay closer to the line of scrimmage than they’d need to be to stop the dig route going over their heads. Baker managed to hit this same concept three times on their opening two drives for 46 yards. It would have worked again to open the third drive if it wasn’t for a fantastic read and drive by Tarheeb Still to snag the ball on a slightly late throw by Baker to get the defense’s first takeaway of the game.
Next up, Tampa went after the Chargers’ lack of run stopping linebackers and Minter’s approach to solve this with defensive backs. The physical Buccaneers offense just bullied their way to 223 rushing yards and one of the ways they did this was out of 22 personnel. Jesse Minter put out the right personnel to oppose this but it was just a mauling. Otito Ogbonnia’s time as a starter should be coming to an end after he has been exposed as the weak spot on the line, the Bucs continually sent double teams his was on the example play below you can see just how poorly he deals with them.
It was not just in terms of physicality either as Coen and his staff particularly went after Derwin James’ lack of detailed run fit knowledge whenever he was lined up in the box as if he was a linebacker. I remember last season when the Arizona Cardinals did this against Dan Quinn’s dime defense and gave the league the answers for dissolving what had been a stout unit before that game. If Minter doesn’t adjust against a similarly built Broncos team on Thursday night, they could look to dominate in the same way.
I have been worried about the pass rushers ability to generate pressure on base rush calls since the Panthers game in Week 2 however this was their worst performance of the season by far. The Buccaneers walked into SoFi stadium with the second lowest pressure rate allowed of any unit in the league and it only got better for them. They only gave up a pressure rate of 16.9% with 1 sack and 2 total QB hits allowed. The tape was even worse for the Chargers’ pass rush because the Bucs’ offensive line did this mostly on their own, there was no need for tight ends or running backs to stay in when the Chargers’ star names failing to generate any kind of pressure. It was frankly hard to rewatch Khalil Mack get stonewalled by Tristan Wirfs, Joey Bosa failing to get anything going against the underrated Luke Goedeke and the interior three keeping Baker’s pocket clear of trouble after anyone not named Poona Ford.
I could break down the coverage mistakes on the example above however no coverage can realistically hold up for over 6 seconds without some gaps appearing. It’s absoultely untenable to play football this way, Baker isn’t even close to being hit when he finally throws the ball to Evans who has jogged his way across the entire width of the field to find the space he needed for 57 yard touchdown. As much as I have criticisms of the pass rushers, the failure of this trench battle was on Jesse Minter, he has been a reluctant blitzer all season long ranking 17th but for this game he took a further gamble that did not pay off. To only send four rushers for the majority of the game (before it got out of hand) when they were generating absolutely nothing was a big mistake that he should have countered earlier than he did.
Third down failures
The lack of pass rush was especially evident on third down. Entering into the game the Chargers’ were 7th in the league for defending third downs yet Tampa Bay went 9 for 15 with Baker Mayfield looking like he had all the answers for whatever he was facing because he had all day to sit there and pick the coverage apart.
I broke down all 15 third down plays and both Minter’s initial plan and in-game adjustment were plain to see. On four of the first five obvious passing third downs Minter’s approach was to play Cover 2-man and rush four with the two high safeties bracketing the slot receivers. I would understand this if the pass rushers had been playing well (which they hadn’t been) but to choose this method of attack against one of the best pass protection units in the league was very confusing. To play man coverage on third down is a risky prospect and it relies on getting to the quarterback, this didn’t happen and it allowed Baker to survey the whole field before making his decision. On these five plays Baker went for 4/4 for 54 yards, 3 first downs and touchdown with the Chargers’ only stoppage coming on a 4 yard scramble.
Minter’s counter to this, once he finally gave up on sending four, was to drop 8 and send three and initially this worked much better to close off the pass lanes as they forced Baker to miss the first three concepts he wanted to hit however after this the Bucs adjusted to it and came back with a savage 3/3 for 63 yards resulting in a pair of first downs and a score. After this they just resorted to running the ball to close out the game which they did to a good deal of success considering the Chargers were expecting the ball to be in the running back’s hands.
The third down performance was awful to say the least and it was a good representation for just how easily Liam Coen was able to attack the Chargers’ weaknesses. I have been full of praise all season long for how Jesse Minter took a failing defense, bolstered it with cheap free agents, Day 3 draft picks and a late pick trade addition, to turn into a system that far outperformed the sum of its parts so it is only right that we provide criticism when someone has been able to outclass him. The question is now whether Harbaugh and his DC will make adjustments or carry on with their base structure in the hope that better player performances can bridge the gap.
The 2-man third down decision was a poor one and I am sure Minter already regrets the path he took away from his usual tendencies however the two high coverage beaters Coen that displayed are more of a concern because he bases so much of his scheme off of this early down coverage shell. I think Jesse was leaning into playing more single high coverages anyway as his rate has started to creep up for the first time so hopefully he has the capacity for change at a critical time of the season. Stubbornness has an expiration date and 40 points and over 500 yards of offense is enough evidence that we have reached that saturation point.
Crackpot theory time
I have been holding onto a theory I have had since the Falcons’ game that I wouldn’t usually share something I can no evidence of (hence the crackpot title) but the state of this week’s defensive gameplan has pushed me to do so. It is my opinion that Jim Harbaugh could be putting the brakes on both Roman and Minter to ensure they do not outpace the long term trajectory of this team.
I have always found coaches like Mike McDaniel to be wasteful by showing off their most complex plays early in the season leaving them with no room to grow when they are playing meaningful football against playoff teams later in the year. I believe that Jim is being the opposite of that right now, he has told his coordinators not to show too much in the hope that in 2025, with an improved roster, they can make a proper run at a championship with a team who already know the scheme on both sides of the ball.
“I have a couple of rules. Number one, get competitive. Number two, win a game. Number three, win two games in a row. Number four, win a championship.”
jim harbaugh on rebuilding
The evidence for me is that at both Michigan and in the Chargers’ preseason, Minter was switching up coverages with disguises and sending creative pressure concepts at a higher rate than most coaches would dare to do. I was preparing to see this as the season went on because whilst there was no need when they were handily beating easy offenses however in games like this, it would have been time to turn the dial up and it just didn’t happen until the game was already out of hand.
The data below, from MatchQuarters and the ever reliant Cody Alexander, provides some numbers to illustrate the differences. In preseason the Chargers were blitzing 38.4% of the time which is 13.2% higher than Minter has ran in the regular season, pass stunts are also down to 23.7% from 31.9%, a difference of 8.2%.
I can appreciate that you don’t always run your base scheme in preseason because you can rely on the natural talent of your players a bit more however it is frustrating to know your coordinator has called a championship winning defense that was built on exotic pressures and he has shown a willingness to do so in preseason, only for it to be shelved even in games where you have given up scores on 6 possessions in a row.
Let me know what you think Stormcloud community? Will Harbaugh and Minter ring the changes or will the shackles remain on with next season in mind?
I don’t see Harbaugh as being the type of coach who intentionally shackles his coaches. I think Minter got out-coached this game and Roman needs to go.
Another solid breakdown Ryan. There were definitely some scheme issues on the plays you used in the article, but some of those also show where the players failed in their assignments.
In the second clip, the Bucky Irving big run, Henley hesitates pretty drastically and instead of filling and taking on the FB in the hole and probably leading to a 3-5 yard gain at best, he doesn’t make contact until the FB is into the second level. Combine that with Ogbonnia getting washed out and you get the explosive.
In the Mike Evans TD clip, you are correct in your assessment that 6 seconds is to long for any DB to cover, especially in a scramble drill situation, but if Tarheeb wraps up it’s only a 20-23 yard gain. Instead of using proper technique to wrap up he tries to shoulder block tackle a player bigger than him resulting in the long TD.
In the final clip Ja’ Sir Taylor (who would be my first cut of the offseason), looks like a bad high school player by deciding to chase the player from under the pick instead of running around it to pick him up on the other side of it. There’s no scheme that is buffoon proof. Even a perfect call relies on some common sense and technique from the players.
I understand that adjustments to the scheme are definitely needed. The league evolves each week and you either adapt or die. As far as the Crackpot Theory, I would not think that is the case. Reid, Spagnuolo, McVay, Shanahan, Fangio, Flores, etc.. have all had their schemes and their full bag of tricks on display for years and they are still successful at running them. It’s not a magic act where you need to save some tricks for the finale. While you might not go into the deepest of gadget plays or exotic blitzes early in the season, this is the time to start rolling them out making a playoff push. Good coordinators can always continue to evolve new concepts and plays and even tweaking older successful ones to give them a new wrinkle. Andy Reid called a play he hasn’t run in 4 years to win the SB last season. Use what you need to win and go back to the drawing board later.
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