For my review of the defensive side of the ball I am going to learn my lesson and avoid grading every player at the same time as breaking down interesting concepts because I don’t have the time as DAZN take so long to upload the coaches film that I essentially get done with my film study around the same time the next game week starts. So going forwards I will focus on key player performances only using three categories standouts, rookies and emerging players. This should give me more time to focus on scheme. Today however I will only talk about scheme and using data to prove what our eyes were trying to tell us; Minter looks like one hell of a play caller.

Summary:

I don’t think it’s being said enough but that was the perfect start to Jesse Minter’s tenure as defensive coordinator. He curtailed the Raiders’ offense with his schematic dial stuck firmly in 2^nd gear. I cannot overstate how impressive it was for a rookie coordinator to step into the NFL already armed with a bag of wild pressure packages and mad disguised coverages, all of which he controls with an esoteric modular playbook, and not use any of it! He just sent his guys out there in a basic zone scheme and told his players “I believe in you”… and they delivered a fantastic unit-wide performance. That kind of resilience, confidence and patronage is just outstanding to see in a first time play caller.

As you can see from the EPA/play (Expected Points Added) chart above and the success rate chart in the gallery below, Minter’s defense were by the best run defense in the whole league winning an incredible 84.2% of the snaps and adding taking away over 0.8 points per play. These numbers will seem alien to Chargers fans after years of mediocre-at-best run defenses stretching back to 2018; the last time they had a Top 10 ranking.

What makes this even more impressive is that they mostly achieved this without the use heavy fronts or aggressive run pressures. The data in the gallery above shows that the Bolts were in lighter personnel groupings on 92.7% of the snap and they called no run stunts or sim pressures, whilst they were 23rd in run blitz calls.

If you compare these to the preseason chart below then you will recognize just how much of a departure this was from what we can assume their normal stylistic choices will look like. Across the board the Chargers were one of the most aggressive teams across the preseason, in run fits they blitzed at 33.7% which is 12.6% higher than their Week 1 performance. They also used run stunts 4.8% of the time and ran simulated pressure looks on 20.7%, both of these are significant increases on their 0.0% numbers against the Raiders.

This also speaks to how Minter and Harbaugh decided to play the pass too, they ran an incredibly simple scheme with some coverage change-ups to counter the success the Raiders found on those deep lateral breaking routes from Jakobi Meyers, Devante Adams and Michael Mayer. However from the data we can see that their game plan was to be “passive” in their playcalling and instead allowed their players to lead the charge with aggressive on field actions.

As you can see from the comparison below the Bolts’ ran 8.9% less coverage disguises than they did in preseason and their coverage variation was completely different with Minter deciding to utilize MOFO (Middle of field open) coverages at much higher rate of 71.7% whereas in the preseason his unit had a much more balanced approach at an almost 50/50 split.

Another notable difference was how Minter rushed the passer, they ran pass blitzes at 31.7% in Week 1 which is 10% less than their total preseason number and a long way below their audacious 50% figure from the Seahawks game. For me though the biggest outlier is the 0.0% simulated pressure metric. Minter’s playbook is filled with these looks so to not run it was a very confident statement in this star pass rushers and the evidence is now with us that it was a rousing success.

So in summary; the data matches what I thought when watching both the broadcast tape and the coaches film; Minter took his hands off and told his players you have got this; go win the game with your talent. He wanted them to win with their new downhill mentality and he believed in them enough to let it happen even in a tight game.

Minter’s Michigan defense had the ability to vary approach and tempo from game to game so I will be curiously watching to see if this manifests itself across the course of the season. Trends are impossible to garner from one game but I love that Minter didn’t use all his arsenal when he could have made life much easier for himself in the short term.

I expect to see more passive play calling early on against the Panthers but if Bryce Young gets into a rhythm, the pass rush can be turned up a notch. I do foresee more coverage change ups though as switching up the picture on a QB, particularly one in the kind of form Dave Canales’s signal caller is in, is an easy way to get turnovers even if you give up more yardage.

Other notes:

• ‘Solve your problems with aggression’ doesn’t necessarily mean sending pressure on every down, it’s more about playing free and fast. Whether that manifests in stepping down to your gap and hit whatever is in it with enough force to cause problems or . Minter’s defense were flying around with this mentality!
• Minter put his guys in position to play free and fast but It’s never going to be perfect, he understands that when previous regimes haven’t. It’s so refreshing to see a staff think comprehensively like this.
• The Raiders quick tempo stuff threw the defense off, the presnap communication needs to be a bit smoother. Having threw green dot players in rotation (all the off ball linebackers) meant this was going to be a shaky start but Minter said in his media availability that between them they didn’t miss any parts of the play call so that’s positive.
• The Raiders benefited from Minshew’s incredible mid yardage accuracy as he hit Meyers, Tucker & Adams on passes that are completed 1 in 10 times. Can’t account for those and those margins aren’t favorable long term.
• Minter’s decision to play safe/simple coverages meant pressure was on his LBs to stay disciplined and gain depth (which his heavy rotation allows for) but if the pass rush can’t get home it allows for chunk completions like the ones to Michael Mayer and Jakobi Meyers those on dig/sail routes that Minshew loves to hit. Play action opened these windows up even further, Minter needed his secondary to step down to reduce these windows especially as Gardner can’t hit deep shots. 
• The other big Adams reception was just a solid cover 6 beater; Post/Dig from the strong side will mean the QB has a big window to hit the dig but the gamble is the pass rush got home. Tart does a great job of getting interior pressure but he was alone in doing so.
• There’s a reason Hortiz went and got all these Titans’ defensive players; they come downhill! Scheme wise you can only do so much but when you have Dupree, Tart, Fulton and Molden all willing to meet their destiny every time the ball is dumped off; you can really prosper even if everything else isn’t perfect.

• In Minter’s Dime package, Derwin plays Will backer with Molden and Alohi as the deep safeties. This is a much better fit overall and Molden looks great.
• I really liked the simplicity of getting to a Tampa 2 with the Nickel gaining depth and Alohi hunting down into the middle hole/pole spot. They ran it three plays in a row and each time the Raiders were trying to hit Meyers over the middle but had to check down out of it.

  • On the third time Mack jumps inside the path of the predictable swing pass to bat the ball into Poona’s arms for the pick. Simple yet brilliant.

I loved how Minter got all four edge players on the field at the same time, he even threw in Morgan Fox for good measure! He used a Tampa Turbo front (from Don Brown’s playbook) as the basis to make sure it was not possible to double anyone. The offense had to leave a sixth man in to protect meaning his secondary only had to cover four routes on 3rd down. So whilst this formation netted no sacks or even any pressures, the respect it carried meant those 3rd downs were mostly successful.