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Greg Roman’s offense is not far away from being good so it’s time for the panic to simmer down
When you look at the numbers there is no escaping the fact that this offense is failing the team. Any metric in existence will point towards a long term trend towards doom however my impression of the tape is that there is plenty of room for optimism.

I may not have published any film reviews over the last few weeks due to work commitments but I have been studying the tape the same way I always do and what I have seen from the Greg Roman’s offense isn’t nearly as bad as it is being made out to be.
There are three component parts to the on field success during a game;
- The scheme design
- The play calling
- The execution
For me, the crucial component that we should all be paying attention to is the scheme design. Without this none of the rest matters, we have seen Herbert performing miracles on 3rd and long in both Lombardi’s and Moore’s schemes but that is not conducive to long term success. So to assess how the offensive is going to perform for the rest of this season and beyond, it is vital to have a sound system for the players to grow into.
Sweeping statement time; Greg Roman’s scheme is good enough for this offense to win double digit games when executed to a decent degree. Now let’s not get carried away here, it’s not Ben Johnson’s masterpiece of an offense but it is closer to that than Lombardi’s laughable offense in Denver. The play design is getting lanes and routes open consistently but the player execution, coaching, discipline and play calling have all been letting it down.
The video analysis and accompanying play-by-play assessment below will attempt to demonstrate how close this offense is to prosperity. I picked this drive in particular because it was one that could (and should) have put the team in position to win the game and it was one of the only drives that wasn’t killed by poor starting field position or self inflicted penalties.
There was 6:26 left on the clock in the 3rd Quarter when Justin Herbert and the offense got started from the 30 yard line after a touchback from kick off. What ensued was a 14 play, 67 yard drive that ultimately ended in a turnover on downs after almost 8 minutes of possession.
1st & 10 at LAC 30
Justin Herbert pass to Joshua Palmer to KC 44 for 26 yards
A great start to the drive with a chunk play gained by utilizing a flood concept against Quarters. Herbert made the right read and delivered a perfect ball just outside the numbers. It was important that this pass kept inside and didn’t take Palmer to the sideline as it would have fed into the corner’s underneath zone. They both corrected the mistake they made against the Raiders on this play call.
Good scheme, call and execution
1st & 10 at KC 44
Gus Edwards to KC 40 for 4 yards
As the video shows, this was a frustrating misstep that could have gone for a lot more yards. Herbert checks into this G-lead power after reading that the Chiefs are calling the strength to the field meaning they’ll have a numbers advantage. The problem is that Zion hit the wrong shoulder of Karlaftis meaning the intended D gap hole is half closed and he instead bounces this to the outside where an unblocked corner is able to bring him down. There’s reason Roman usually pulls in the opposite direction and that’s because Zion isn’t good on the move.
Good scheme, great call (by Herbert) but let down by poor execution.
2nd & 6 at KC 40
Gus Edwards KC 35 for 5 yards
Easy open hole for a good gain on a solid play call. This was a really bad spot as it should have picked up the first down.
3rd & 1 at KC 35
Justin Herbert to KC 33 for 2 yards
Simple QB sneak for the first down.
1st & 10 at KC 33
J.K. Dobbins to KC 29 for 4 yards
I don’t like the play call or design here as the motion from Palmer mean the Chiefs ended up with 8 men in the box and inside zone just isn’t going to do anything. Only a patient press from J.K. means this ended up with some yards gained. Running on first down in field goal range is never my favorite call either.
Average scheme, poor call and average execution
2nd & 6 at KC 29
J.K. Dobbins right guard to KC 29 for no gain
Another frustratingly close moment of the drive where Dobbins could have taken this to the end-zone if he kept his foot on the gas all the way to the edge. This outside zone concept is taught to be read from outside to in so he really should have hit this, it rarely gets clearer than this. I think he had Justin Reid beat to the edge as well.
Good scheme, good call but a bad bit of execution by the ball carrier
3rd & 6 at KC 29
Justin Herbert pass to Joshua Palmer to KC 23 for 6 yards
The motion revealed the man coverage and Herbert didn’t have to check to anything as they have the man beater two man game to the wide side of the field. If the defenders switched after the route exchange then he hits Ladd but they don’t meaning the safety has to break over the stem of Ladd’s route and that gives the space for Palmer to be found towards the sideline.
Good scheme, call and execution on 3rd down
1st & 10 at KC 23
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Ladd McConkey.
This is a filthy two man route combo to beat almost any coverage as the images below show. The issue was that Zion failed to spot another inside twist and Herbert couldn’t launch the throw this play deserved.
Great scheme, great call but poor execution in the protection plan




2nd & 10 at KC 23
Gus Edwards to KC 21 for 2 yards
The play call is a pretty simple outside zone call but Gus reads the wrong gap again as he had a decent crease up the A gap but decided to cut it back.
Average scheme, Vanilla call on 2nd and long to set up a 3rd and medium but poor execution by Gus who could and should be in a battle for RB2 at this point
3rd & 8 at KC 21
Justin Herbert pass to Quinten Johnston to KC 12 for 9 yards
A frequent trips bunch combo against off coverage with the TE and Slot running routes to clear their defenders out of the window and then the Z being tasked with winning the leverage battle off of his one foot cut. I like that they trust Q enough to try this.
Good scheme, great call on 3rd & long and great execution
1st & 10 at KC 12
J.K. Dobbins right tackle to KC 12 for no gain
The gap run game was working on this drive so Roman goes back to it once more. The GH Counter concept looked like to would create a few yards and it was going to but Salyer made a mistake on the backside and it allowed Drue Tranquill to scrape down the line for a run stuff.
Good scheme, good call but poor execution by a single player yet again
2nd & 10 at KC 12
Justin Herbert pass to J.K. Dobbins to KC 7 for 5 yards
Whilst I’m not usually a fan of single route concepts, they were working very well on this drive so why not go back to it. Hurst and Palmer switch out of the stack but post attack the middle of the field. The Chiefs are running Quarters which means Herbert knows he’ll have J.K. open after the other routes clear out the four ‘box’ defenders.
Good scheme, good play call and good execution
3rd & 5 at KC 7
Justin Herbert pass to Joshua Palmer to KC 3 for 4 yards
Really like this play design by going into trips bunch with two big boy tight ends setting up the tunnel screen for Palmer. Sometimes you really are left scratching your head because what the f**k was Palmer seeing that made him go so low? On replay I can see that the pass was a little low and rushed but if Palmer attacks the ball as he’s meant to, this is a touchdown. One criticism I have is why is it Palmer running this route when Ladd is faster and QJ excels in these situations?
Good scheme, great call but very poor execution by a single player
4th & 1 at KC 3
Justin Herbert pass incomplete short middle to H.Hurst
I have no problem with this play design as it did what it was intended to: get an open lane into the end zone however I have two issues with this:
- Don’t call two plays in a row from the bunch, this gave the Chiefs the chance to correct their coverage into man-match rules instead of their standard Quarters read.
- They did this in up-tempo out of timeout which was a very strange decision but it meant there was no opportunity for a motion to give Herbert a read on the defense.
So it was a good scheme but a terrible call given the situation (plus I would have preferred a run) but once again a small player mistake meant the play failed.
Conclusion
The bare face of the performances so far are inescapably underwhelming. I’ve spent way too many hours with my head in my hands on Sundays because of this offense’s inability to sustain drives or put points on the board. However I genuinely think that Bolt fans have reasons to be optimistic about the potential this unit has. They just need to iron out the details, execute and be disciplined enough to not put themselves in unwinnable situations.
There is plenty of blame to place on the coaching too, this is not a blanket statement of support for Greg Roman as he is ultimately responsible for everything this offense does, the timing of his play calling can justifiably be put under the spotlight too. There are some positions at which I’m starting to think cannot be improved upon until next off-season however the scheme is not the problem in this instance. The interior of the offensive line, tight ends and running backs (other than J.K.) just aren’t performing at a level that can win games. Marcus Brady, Mike Devlin, Andy Bischoff, Kiel McDonald and anyone else with a share of the responsibility for these positions have to find ways to improve the execution of the scheme through coaching and installing better discipline.
As I said earlier, nothing can be right without the scheme being the foundation to which to build from and, in my opinion when you turn on the tape, you can see that it’s there in principle. This offense is by no means a lost cause for this season and beyond, I think it has the potential to be the balanced unit this team has been crying out for. It’s just a matter of details and to borrow a quote from one of the greatest architectural minds of all time, which I am sure Jim Harbaugh would agree with:
“God is in the details”
Mies van der Rohe
I really don’t care for comparisons of football and war but I’m gonna paraphrase one here….you go to war with the army you have, not the one you want.
Roman needs to adjust. I’m not seeing much of that.
The first and 10 at the KC 23 was a bad read by Herbert. It seems like he decided where to go with the ball before the snap. QJ is wide open on the post before the pressure gets there. If he throws that on his break it’s a walk in 6 points.
The second play of the drive the 1st and 10 at the KC 44, you could say that Zion hit the wrong shoulder on his defender while pulling, but Palmer does jack shit. He stands there watching the play. If he blocks the CB right in front of him, that could have been a 10 yard gain or a broken tackle away from a house call.
Also, regardless of execution by Hurst, the final play was a terrible call. It’s 4th and 1 and the call was essentially a 1 man route. Once QJ didn’t come uncovered, it’s designed for nothing else. You could still get a 1st down. Why not use an RPO play to hold or commit to the run to open up the window behind them? Why is Fehoko lined up by himself at the top. Shouldn’t you have QJ there and put Ladd or Palmer in QJ’s spot, so if the bunch read isn’t open you can have QJ run the back of the end zone and use his height for a high pointed pass as a last option? Everyone in the building knows that play isn’t going to an isolated Fehoko, or even going to him at all. You might as well lined up Matlock there for the same result. Look how easily it was covered. You don’t put your worst WR at the top of the route and a bunch with your best WR together on the bottom. That is doing the exact opposite of getting your best WR 1 on 1 coverage in space. KC essentially ignored Fehoko’s half of the field, and had everyone manned up with 2 players in a zone. Great design. They used 6 defenders to cover your 4 on half a field. It’s even dumber from an empty set, as you are announcing it is 100% a pass to 1/2 of the field.
It’s one thing to have players hit a wrong shoulder or player blocking on the move, or a RB missing an opening to hit a hole, but there is something totally different about not putting players in a position to succeed with play designs and usage. I know the roster lacks every ideal piece, but good coaches find a way tom use what they have. Where are the plays to get Ladd or QJ the ball on the move in space, or at least get Ladd isolated to use his superb route running to get open? God forbid Dobbins goes down. What will the offense look like then? It’s already in the bottom 5 with him.
Look, we have 13 games left and I am sure improvements can be, and will be made. However, IMO, as far as the passing game, it is not dynamic enough to use Herbert or some of our “weapons” to the best of their ability. Remember, there’s a reason Roman was on the street looking for work.
Well it can’t get any worse, so we will see what develops. If Herbert having no time to throw because of interior pressure, it won’t matter if you have a 4.2 guy on the outside, so not sure how much of an impact Charlie might have.
Great insights as per usual, @ryanwatkins. Thanks for taking the time to put up quality content like this.
A few other comments on the specific plays on this drive from me:
I’ve heard football coaches say it’s hard to run Outside Zone from the Shotgun. You certainly don’t see the Shanahan tree disciples calling it that way very much. So perhaps there’s something about it that made it harder for Dobbins to read the available running lanes. G-Ro might want to tweak that.QJ’s route running on that completion is exactly what I want to see from him. In his drive phase, he has his head down low and he sells the outside fake before stepping hard inside on the slant and catching the ball cleanly. Credit to Sanjay Lal and to QJ for putting in the hard work. He looks like an NFL WR2 on that snap.On the 4th down, I see a scheme/personnel failure by allowing Chris Jones to be lined up 1-on-1 against Sam Mustipher. I feel like you need to have a better plan than that if you’re going to insist on running a simple dropback pass with your injured QB on 4th down.I agree with you that Roman’s passing game, on film, has not looked so bad. It’s something I’ve noticed myself and leads me to think there are some personnel issues that might not be solved until next offseason.
However, philosophically I think it’s open to take issue with the following:
G-Ro/Harbaugh appear to aim to get to 3rd & Short on early downs.G-Ro/Harbaugh will run on 1st&10 immediately following big completions, other first downs, or in the opposition’s half.G-Ro/Harbaugh will happily run on 2nd & Short or 3rd& Short to ‘get the first down and a new set of downs’.I think G-Ro & Harbaugh believe that you run your Offense to beat your opponent and win the game, rather than to maximise or run up the score. And I think that leads to an interesting debate about the best way to play football. As an OC, is your job to score the most points you possibly can? If so, the Chargers’ approach will never achieve that by running the football as much as they do. But if you think your job is to ‘win’, including by dominating time of possession and keeping your Defense fresh, then you might favour the G-Ro/Harbaugh approach.
The skill errors and pre-snap penalties will hurt your Offense more if you’re already not trying to maximise scoring through conservative playcalling. So, if G-Ro/Harbaugh are going to continue to take that approach? The execution must be better, or we’ll continue to score <20 points.
But if you think your job is to ‘win’, including by dominating time of possession and keeping your Defense fresh, then you might favour the G-Ro/Harbaugh approach.
This quote above Alister is much closer to what Harbaugh is trying to achieve. This approach IMO works best as the season wears on and the weather gets worse. Let’s see how they do as injuries pile up for all teams and these teams with fast effective defenses begin to wear down. It is a long season and I believe this approach will bear fruit as time goes on. I saw a stat that had Herbert averaging 39 passes a game in the past resulting in great stats and losing football. Figure out how to have an effective running game and the passing game will open up over time. That is what I expect as the season goes on. A healthy Herbert, a good running game and that defense will win games.
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