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Good afternoon, StormCloud!
This week, the Chargers are taking on the Tennessee Titans.
Just a year ago this was a intimidating matchup for Charger fans, as Brandon Staley’s defense couldn’t stop the run and the Titans offense featured the fearsome Derrick Henry. The Bolts went on to lose that game by a field goal, but the script is very different this go-around.
For starters, Tennessee doesn’t have the same punishing persona with Brain Callahan at the helm, replacing the physically imposing Mike Vrabel. Derrick Henry was replaced by Tony Pollard, who while a solid running back in his own right, isn’t the bruising pile-mover Henry has been his own career. The Titans are shifting to a more finesse style of play, hoping to succeed with more explosives through the air like he did in Cincinnati with Joe Burrow.
The Chargers took the different turn, converting from an aggressive finesse team to playing old-school bully ball. In recent weeks they’ve shown a willingness to let Justin open the game up with his arm, but at this unit’s core they are a defensively led team who succeed by stifling offenses and protecting the football, completely complacent with winning games despite barely scratching the 20’s in points.
At this juncture, the Chargers don’t know if they’ll see the cannon-armed Will Levis, or game-managing backup Mason Rudolph. Either way, this will be another opportunity for Jim Harbaugh to differentiate this era of Chargers football by ridding itself of a plague of the past: playing down to the level of an inferior opponent, and letting them stick around long enough to steal a win.
What do you think about Sunday’s matchup, StormCloud? Get loud in the comments below!
The IOL will have their hands full with Jeffery Simmons still. Both the outside (DE & DT) and inside stunts (DT & NT) have consistently decimated this interior OL. But I expect a win by 3 scores against this bad Titans team.
@tui1hit yeah, Roman needs to move Herbert around Sunday. It’s not only for success….we need Herbert healthy. Inside pressure is deadly for both.
A 3 score win would certainly be nice. A relaxing Sunday sounds great! Spread is currently Titans +7.5.
Cleveland’s defensive line was a major test for Roman’s game planning, Herb’s ability to take sacks, and the o-line to work together.
Simmons (19), Key (19) and Landry III (19) have a total of 57 pressures between them this season. Conversely Cleveland’s Garrett (41), McGuire (12) and Smith (27) have 80 (could have used JOK or Tomlinson here, too. Man their front is nasty!).
However, the Titans generate pressure far more evenly across their line and don’t have that premier-freak like Garrett (41 pressures with a prush win rate % of 36.8 is ludicrous).
Expect performances of Slater and Alt to be an improvement from Cleveland, but also expect plenty of trickery up front from those big boys to exploit the interior. If I were Dennard Wilson I’d be trying to get as many of my guys going across Zion’s face as possible into Bozeman, forcing them to make those decisions that they clearly struggle with. Also, I’d focus on getting Simmons 1v1 against Pipkins as much as possible to take advantage of Simmons’ strength – he could really disrupt the run game.
This could also be a sneaky Kenny Murray revenge game for a sack on Herbert, as whilst his general linebacking grades have been poor per PFF, he is enjoying his highest pass rushing grade in his career at the Titans. I am sure he’ll be hungry.
However, if Minter’s defence can suck the life out of Pollard and their run game early, relying on Levis to pick apart the ever changing tapestry that is the Charger’s secondary has proven to be a challenge for all opposition QBs this year. Should be a two score win where we break their wills early.
Bolt up!
Here’s a weird collection of stats that I was looking at today, and since we’re halfway through the season, single-game outliers have been largely evened out.
Titans are #1 in yards per game allowed. #1 in passing yards allowed, #11 in running yards allowed. However, they are #27 in points per game allowed. That’s some weird divergence.
Some of it can be explained by their turnover differential (#31 in the league with a minus-11) potentially giving up lots of short fields, but that’s still a wide margin between their yards allowed and points allowed.
I’m assuming so. I believe it also includes defensive scores on pick-sixes, scoop-and-scores, probably even safeties.
@smith So it might be a difficult game to move the ball reliably on offense. I expect the defense to be excellent yet again and hope we can get a few TD’s on offense to comfortably win like last week.
Looks like a good game for a score on defense and or special teams. And to pick up a few turnovers for short fields.
“From 2020-23, only 14.5 percent of pressures against Herbert turned into sacks, the sixth-lowest rate in the league in that span, according to TruMedia. This season, that rate has ballooned to 22.8 percent.” (Popper)
This is a big telling of how awful the IOL has been this season and how well Herbert has been playing while he couldn’t step into his throw inside to escape the outside pressure while also dealing with high rate of interior pressure. Rarely there was an inside front pocket for Herbert to operate from this season. Most QB’s would crumble in such situation, not Justin. Harbaugh didn’t specifically identify this area of toughness for Herbert, but I believe it’s one good reason he was referred to as the toughest QB by Jim.
I’m sure Ortiz was busy searching for a reasonable trade to upgrade the IOL but couldn’t find one. This is a big area of emphasis in the offseason.
I have been a fool before, and I don’t mind being one again, but I still have hope for Zion. Pipkins and Bozeman are doing their best, but it’s not good enough. Upgrading at center is a bigger issue as he’s the captain of the line. Replacing Pipkins with a better (and cheaper) option should be addressed as well. Jaimes was a slightly better option than Will Clapp, but that’s like comparing a moldy cheddar to a dog-toy tennis shoe. But how did Salyer fall so far out of favor? I guess he doesn’t fit the scheme, but damn he was a hell of a rookie left tackle when the opportunity arose.
@smith I’m with you re: Zion. A better center elevates Zion’s play too. Pipkins? He is what he is.
Hadn’t seen confirmation of Mack’s injury until now but figured groin. Hope it heals well and quickly. Maybe Bosa can take up some slack this week. Maybe.
Interested to see Chark.
This is definitely a game to pass the football. The Titans are banged up in the secondary (which isn’t very good anyway). Hoping for continued growth from QJ, Ladd, Josh and hopefully some to DJ as well.
Posting this even though I disagree with the statement regarding Pipkins.
Gus Edwards is back but he wasn’t doing much before. Not expecting that to change….I honestly think he’s gassed.
Roll Herbert!! Maybe Chark will provide some more offensive spark (rhyme unintended).
https://chargerswire.usatoday.com/lists/chargers-keys-to-victory-in-week-10-vs-titans/
Man, I disagree with the Pipkins statement too, but definitely left me wondering… “Well then, who is the ‘best presence’ within that group?” I guess I lean Zion, but part of that is likely that I still expect growth and development out of him and thus grade him on a different scale…
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