With the final preseason game in the books, I want to go on the record with a final roster prediction. There are some very tough decisions to make. I follow a lot of Chargers news and a couple podcasts, so I have certainly heard plenty of opinions on this, but this is my own take.

Detailed Breakdown

Here is my projection:

• Offense (25):
  • QB (2): Herbert, Lance
    • Heinicke released and signed by another team; Chargers can’t afford to keep him on the roster until after cuts to facilitate a trade like Atlanta did last year, but there is not much reason for a team to trade for him by Tuesday knowing that
    • Uiagalelei waived, unclaimed, and signed to practice squad
  • RB (4): Hampton, Haskins, Sanders, Miller-Hines
    • Harris remains on NFI; I do not believe Hortiz’s statement that he could be ready for game 1
    • Vidal waived, unclaimed, and signed to practice squad; he could instead go to short term IR, but I used those two spots for Colson and Leonard
    • As far as I know, I am the only person predicting Hines over Vidal, but I’m stubbornly sticking with it because I think he is a better player
  • FB (1): Matlock
  • WR (6): McConkey, Allen, Johnston, Harris, KLS, Davis
    • Reagor released and signed to practice squad
    • Campbell waived, unclaimed, and signed to practice squad
    • With 6 WRs on the active roster, no need for more than 2 on the practice squad, and I think Campbell beat out Rice, Grimm, and Johnson
  • TE (4): Dissly, Conklin, Gadsden
    • Fisk is waived, unclaimed, and signed to the practice squad; he is my first man out on the roster, and I went back and forth on whether to keep him over a 4th RB or 9th OL, but I am trying to project what the team will do, and this is my best guess
    • Yasmin waived, unclaimed, and signed to the practice squad in the International Pathways Player (IPP) exemption slot
  • OL (9): LT Alt, LG Johnson, C Bozeman, RG Becton, RT Pipkins, G/T Salyer, C James, T/G Taylor, T Sharpe
    • C Kaltenberger waived, unclaimed, and signed to practice squad
    • G Barnhart waived, unclaimed, and signed to practice squad; I think his Michigan connection helps him edge out Nelson and Nash Jones
    • T Stewart waived, unclaimed, and signed to practice squad
    • I don’t think Taylor should play a snap this season, and I am skeptical he will ever be a startable player. But I think the Chargers feel differently about him and will not risk putting him on waivers.
    • I expect Hortiz will attempt to acquire a better depth player at guard or tackle this week, whether with a waiver claim or a trade for a player another team is going to cut. If so, that player will replace Sharpe, who I expect will be signed to the practice squad, which could in turn push Stewart off the practice squad.
• Defense (25):
  • Edge (5): Mack, Tuipulotu, Dupree, Murphy, Kennard
    • Morris-Brash played great in camp/preseason, but I think Murphy played better
    • Kennard’s disappointing start forces the team to keep 5 players in this group, which costs a player in another position group (Fisk? Reed?) a roster spot
  • IDL (6): Tart, Hand, Jones, Ogbonnia, Caldwell, Eboigbe
    • I expected this group to be a weakness, but they have looked good, and all of these players have earned a roster spot; kudos to the coaching staff, which just might be the real deal (sarcasm)
    • Hinton waived, unclaimed, and signed to practice squad
    • With 6 players on the active roster, plus Matlock, I think the team only needs 1 practice squad spot, and I’m projecting Hinton over Edwards
  • LB (4): Henley, Perryman, Dye, Phillips
    • Predicting Colson will be 1 of 2 players who can go to IR designated to return on Tuesday; this is speculation, but he has not practiced recently and did not play yesterday; Popper made this same assumption
    • Wax waived, unclaimed, and signed to practice squad; his agent has reportedly asserted he is a lock to make the final roster, but I don’t believe it with this challenging roster crunch
    • Emany Johnson waived, unclaimed, and signed to practice squad
  • CB (5): Still, Jackson, Hart, St. Juste, Taylor
    • Taylor makes it for special teams, especially with Leonard not starting out on the roster
    • Predicting Leonard will be 1 of 2 players who can go to IR designated to return on Tuesday; this is my own speculation, but it’s worth noting he did not play in the game yesterday
    • Reed waived, unclaimed, and signed to practice squad; he is my second player out after Fisk, but with Derwin expected to play most of his snaps in the slot, the team doesn’t really need a 6th CB if the others are healthy
    • Rogers waived, unclaimed, and signed to practice squad
    • Purchase waived, unclaimed, and signed to practice squad
    • The team doesn’t necessarily need 3 CBs on the practice squad, but all 3 of these guys have played great in preseason; this means there is no room for Bridges or others
  • S (5): James, Gilman, Molden, Mickens, Jefferson
    • Jefferson and Mickens have both played so well they cannot be exposed to waivers/free agency
    • Williamson waived, unclaimed, and signed to practice squad
    • Keeping 5 safeties on the active roster, no need for more than 1 safety on the practice squad.
• Special Teams (3):
  • PK (1): Dicker
  • P (1): Scott
  • LS (1): Harris

Summarizing again without all of the notes:

• Offense (25):
  • QB (2): Herbert, Lance
  • RB (4): Hampton, Haskins, Sanders, Miller-Hines
  • FB (1): Matlock
  • WR (6): McConkey, Allen, Johnston, Harris, KLS, Davis
  • TE (3): Dissly, Conklin, Gadsden
  • OL (9): LT Alt, LG Johnson, C Bozeman, RG Becton, RT Pipkins, G/T Salyer, C James, T/G Taylor, T Sharpe
• Defense (25):
  • Edge (5): Mack, Tuipulotu, Dupree, Murphy, Kennard
  • IDL (6): Tart, Hand, Jones, Ogbonnia, Caldwell, Eboigbe
  • LB (4): Henley, Perryman, Dye, Phillips
  • CB (5): Still, Jackson, Hart, St. Juste, Taylor
  • S (5): James, Gilman, Molden, Jefferson, Mickens
• Special Teams (3):
  • PK (1): Dicker
  • P (1): Scott
  • LS (1): Harris
• IR Designated to Return (2):
  • LB Colson
  • CB Leonard

This is a strong roster everywhere except OL, especially IOL. That weakness is not a surprise to anyone. What is a bit of a surprise is how good and deep the defense appears to be.

Practice Squad

Here is the practice squad I projected in the notes:

• Offense (9):
  • QB (1): Uiagalelei
  • RB (1): Vidal
  • WR (2): Reagor, Campbell
  • TE (2): Fisk, Yasmin (IPP)
  • OL (3): C Kaltenberger, G Barnhart, T Stewart
• Defense (8):
  • Edge (1): Morris-Brash
  • IDL (2): Hinton
  • LB (2): Wax, Johnson
  • CB (3): Reed, Rogers, Purchase
  • S (1): Williamson

I’m sure there will be churn here; it is probably not possible to accurately predict this group even for any particular snapshot in time. It is also very possible I am wrong about all of these players going unclaimed.

Remember that the team can protect 4 practice squad players every week from being signed by another team. If these players all make it to the practice squad, the team could then protect Fisk, Morris-Brash, Wax, and Reed, for example.

Compared to Popper

I compared my projection to Popper’s, and we have only one difference: he has Vidal over Hines. I didn’t copy his projection, but it seems we reasoned it out the same way. I did take the Colson to IR idea from him. I had been thinking maybe the team would find a reason to put Kennard on IR, but he played yesterday and Colson did not, so Colson seems to make more sense.

We have plenty of differences in our projected practice squad players, and I get the sense he didn’t put as much thought into it as he did the final 53:

• Popper projects these players to make the practice squad that I do not: RB Patterson, WR Johnson, WR Grimm, TE Klotz, G Jones, Edge Randolph, CB Bridges.
• I predict these players to make it that he does not: QB Uiagalelei, RB Vidal, C Kaltenberger, G Barnhart, T Stewart, CB Rogers, CB Purchase.
• At RB, obviously Popper has Vidal on the final roster, but surprising he would pick Patterson over Miller-Hines. He did not really comment on this that I have seen or heard.
• Popper has 4 WRs making the practice squad, but no QB and just 1 OL; this seems unlikely
• Popper has Klotz making it in addition to Fisk and Yasmin, so 3 TEs; I could see Klotz making it if Fisk was making the final roster, but hard for me to see it in this scenario

Compared to Alex Katson (Chargers Wire and Guilty As Charged)

I compared my final roster projection to Alex’s, and there are more differences. He kept:

• Only 3 RBs, with Vidal going to IR designated to return and Miller-Hines out
• Only 8 OL, with Sharpe out
• 4 TEs, with Fisk making it
• Only 5 IDL, with Jones out
• 5 LBs, with Colson making it
• 6 CBs, with Reed making it
• So he has 24 on offense and 26 on defense

As much as I would like Fisk on the final roster, I am not persuaded on these differences.

His projected practice squad is closer to mine:

• Alex projects these players to make the practice squad that I do not: RB Miller-Hines, WR Rice, T Sharpe, G Jones, IDL Jones, Edge Randolph.
• I predict these players to make it that he does not: RB Vidal, TE Fisk, C Kaltenberger, G Barnhart, IDL Hinton, CB Reed.
• Half of these differences are players one of us projects on the final roster and the other projects on the practice squad.

Conclusion

This is the most interesting roster cutdown I can remember in my Chargers fandom. The Chargers have a number of difficult decisions to make, but most of them fall into the “good problems to have” category.

Thoughts?