The Appetizer Before the Meal

Before the legal tampering window even opened, the Chargers’ offseason course was already being put into motion. Three signings, spread across the week leading up to the negotiating period, didn’t finish the picture, but they framed it. They were the appetizer to what was coming, and by the time the window actually opened, we could already see where this thing was headed.

Each signing addressed a different priority. Each one constrained the next decision. And taken together, they told us which offseason Joe Hortiz was choosing to run: aggressive where the value existed, disciplined where the market was going to overheat, and protective of the draft capital ledger at every step.

Here’s the sequence.

The contextual dominoes fell almost simultaneously. Soon after Biadasz signed last week, the Patriots traded Garrett Bradbury to the Bears, and the Bills re-signed Connor McGovern. The center market moved fast, validating Hortiz’s early strike. Wait another hour, and the best options at the position were either off the board or commanding significantly more money.

Three signings. Three different price tiers. Three different positional needs addressed. And the most important part of each one wasn’t the player acquired. It was what the signing preserved for the decisions still ahead.

The Big One

When this series began, we posed a question: sign Tyler Linderbaum at the top of the center market, or find value elsewhere and deploy the savings across the rest of the roster? Hortiz answered that question before the window opened. The rest of the league answered it within hours.

The Raiders signed Tyler Linderbaum to a 3-year, $81M deal. $27M AAV. $60M guaranteed.

That’s $9 million per year more than any center in NFL history. Creed Humphrey held the record at $18M AAV. Linderbaum didn’t just break the market. He obliterated it. The gap between the old record and the new one is larger than what most starting centers make in total.

This is the validation of the Biadasz signing, viewed through the three-budget lens this series has been building toward since Part 1.

The Chargers got a quality starting center at 37% of Linderbaum’s price. Hortiz saw the Linderbaum market developing, recognized the price was going to be absurd, and pivoted to Biadasz at a fraction of the cost. The math was already compelling in Part 3.5 when we only had projections. Now that Linderbaum’s actual number is public, it looks even better.

There will be people who argue the Chargers should have just paid for Linderbaum and lived with the premium. That argument has to account for three simultaneous consequences: $17M more per year on the cap, triple the year-one cash commitment, and a Day 2 comp pick. Hortiz wasn’t choosing between two centers. He was choosing his course for the offseason, and the value proposition across all three resource buckets pointed away from Linderbaum and toward Biadasz.

Zion and Oweh Walk. The Comp Picture Sharpens.

Zion Johnson signed with the Browns for 3 years, $49.5M ($16.5M AAV, $32.4M guaranteed, $17M signing bonus). This confirms what Hortiz telegraphed when he declined the fifth-year option last spring. The Chargers valued Johnson but not at this price. His departure opens a significant hole at left guard, and that hole will need to be addressed through the draft, the trade market, or cut-candidate hunting. But it also generates a compensatory pick, and likely the first time Hortiz pulls in a 4th-rounder as the Chargers’ GM.

Between the Biadasz signing and the Johnson departure, the Chargers also added Charlie Kolar on a 3-year, $24.3M deal ($8.1M AAV, $17M guaranteed). Kolar is the premiere blocking tight end on the market, with improved athleticism over Will Dissly, who was released to make room. Hortiz drafted Kolar in Baltimore, another Ravens pipeline signing that reflects the organizational trust he’s built with players he’s personally evaluated. Kolar becomes the highest-paid blocking tight end in the NFL. Paired with breakout rookie receiving TE Oronde Gadsden, the Chargers now have a balanced tight end room built for exactly what McDaniel’s offense demands, but expect them to still be on the lookout for one more capable addition at the position.

Then the last domino fell.

Odafe Oweh signed with the Commanders for 4 years, $100M ($25M AAV, $68M guaranteed). The price likely became too steep for a player many see as a designated pass rusher, and it’s telling that Jesse Minter and the Ravens just traded two first-round picks for Maxx Crosby instead of reuniting Odafe with the coach that earned him that payday. At $100M, the Chargers were never going to match, not with a Tuli Tuipulotu extension on the horizon and the opportunity cost of him not earning them a 3rd-round compensatory pick. Hortiz had already re-signed Mack as the bridge. Oweh’s departure was the final variable that locked in the remaining strategy.

Later in the day, the Chargers added Cole Strange on a 2-year, $13M deal. Strange cleared waivers last year after being released by New England and spent time on the Browns’ practice squad before Miami picked him up. The price tag suggests the offensive line coaching staff believes they can get more out of him with a full offseason to develop, and the upside is real: Strange was a first-round pick in 2022 with legitimate starting experience. Combined with Trevor Penning, who is staying on a 1-year, $4.5M deal, the Chargers now have two former first-round picks available as guard depth, with over four years of starting experience each. Both signings are low-cost retentions that provide legitimate competition at the interior without meaningfully affecting the comp formula.

The Comp Pick Calculus Locks In

With Oweh’s departure confirmed at $100M, the Chargers’ compensatory pick strategy crystallizes. This is the part of the offseason that most coverage will ignore entirely, and it’s the part that constrains every remaining decision Hortiz makes.

The comp pick formula compares qualifying departing CFAs against qualifying incoming CFAs, matching them by contract value to determine cancellations. Here’s where the Chargers’ ledger stands right now.

The rule going forward is clear: expect any CFA signing the Chargers make to stay below roughly $13M APY. That threshold keeps incoming signings out of the 4th-round comp pick cancellation bucket, preserving the Zion Johnson pick. Hortiz is prioritizing the retention of both the Oweh and Johnson comp picks and will focus on cut candidates and CFAs that don’t break into the higher cancellation tiers.

The outgoing CFAs most likely to generate additional comp picks include Benjamin St-Juste, Trey Pipkins, Jamaree Salyer, Keenan Allen, and Da’Shawn Hand. Each additional qualifying departure either sets the budget for how many CFAs Hortiz can sign, or adds to the projected pick count.

With Trevor Penning no longer adding a comp pick to the departing ledger, and Cole Strange adding a cancellation on the incoming side, the Chargers find themselves in an interesting position. It’s assumed Keenan Allen will be retained, which leaves only Jamaree Salyer as potential insulation from additional CFA signings cancelling out the 4th from Zion, and even potentially the 3rd from Odafe. The additional bubble players to watch, in order of importance, are Tony Jefferson, Deane Leonard, Del’Shawn Phillips, Denzel Perryman, and Tyler Conklin. For every one of these players, if they depart (please don’t, TJ!), Chargers fans should hope they manage to secure at least $3.2M APY elsewhere. Each departure above that threshold gives Hortiz another signing he can make without losing his premiere comp picks.

The Chargers are currently positioned for multiple compensatory picks in 2027, with the exact count depending on how many additional CFAs depart versus how many Hortiz signs. The margin is thin. Every incoming CFA above the formula floor carries cancellation risk. That’s the constraint Hortiz is managing for the rest of this window.

Cut Candidates, Trades, and the Lanes That Remain

Here’s the part that makes this offseason genuinely interesting from a strategy perspective. The comp pick math creates specific lanes for Hortiz to operate in, and those lanes favor two acquisition paths over traditional free agency: cut candidates and trades. Both are invisible to the compensatory pick formula. Both allow the Chargers to add starter-level talent without touching the ledger.

Several names have already been released or are rumored as potential cuts by their current teams, and the Chargers have been connected to the cut-candidate market in various reports. Jonnu Smith (TE), Bobby Okereke (LB), and Elgton Jenkins (OG/OT) have already hit the open market after being released. Darnell Mooney (WR), Arik Armstead (DL), and Jonathan Greenard (EDGE) are still rostered but have been floated as potential cuts. Cut candidates and street free agents don’t count against the compensatory pick formula. This is the lane Hortiz is now operating in for any significant additions.

The trade market is the other lane, and possibly the more consequential one. Hortiz is currently working with only five draft picks, and that’s a thin hand for a GM who values volume. Teams have reportedly been calling about Quentin Johnston, and Hortiz displayed clear intention to trade down last year when he negotiated with the Eagles before ultimately running out of time on the clock. It’s interesting that the current trade partner rumor circulating involves the same team from those negotiations.

A scenario where Johnston and the 1st-round pick (#22) get packaged to a team in exchange for an impact starter and multiple later-round picks is at least worth monitoring, even if it’s speculative at this point. Something like A.J. Brown plus a 3rd and 4th in exchange for Johnston and #22 would be the kind of deal to watch for. Trades also eat up cap and cash without affecting the comp pick formula, which is another reason this path makes strategic sense for where the Chargers are positioned right now.

The common thread across both paths: Hortiz can add starting-caliber talent at both guard spots and along the defensive line without cancelling a single compensatory pick. Wide receiver doesn’t have a true hole, but if Quentin Johnston is involved in a trade, it presents an opportunity to upgrade. The lanes exist. The question is whether Hortiz uses them aggressively enough to close the gap between a good roster and a championship one.

The Direction Is Set

Data sources: Contract figures verified via NFL.com (Biadasz), Rapoport (Mack), The Insiders (Ingold), Schefter (Linderbaum, Oweh, Johnson, Penning), Pelissero (Kolar). Comp pick projections based on Over the Cap formula modeling. All contract values reflect reported terms at time of signing. Compensatory pick cancellation analysis based on CBA Article 6, Section 7 qualifying CFA definitions. Cut candidates and street free agents do not count as CFAs per the formula.