by Ryan Watkins

With just over a week left until the draft I am finally done with my defensive rankings. It has been a labor of love to do this with a full time career and a young son that I don’t want to miss time with but that is why they call it a passion right? That said, I hate the preamble life story nonsense you see on just about every single online recipe these days so let’s cut to the chase and talk through this year’s defensive prospects!

First up a quick explanation of my rules for studying the draft class:

1. Never watch a player’s highlight package; not even in-season for fun
2. Watch All-22 film unless you absolutely have to watch broadcast cut-ups for lower ranked players
3. Study games in full, it gives you better information than hopping from game to game.
4. Do not read other analysts’ player profiles until you are done with your own film.
5. I do not consider any injuries or off-field problems at all; I will never know enough to be able to consider these in a fair and even manner across the board.
6. I watch tape from the toughest games they had.
7. I watch tape from the most recent season unless the tape available is against bad opposition, then you go back one year maximum.

These are all very important components for coming to your own conclusions and not conforming to the almost inescapable groupthink that happens in draft season. I cover and rank players by position group because I feel it isn’t worth the time to create a big board because that’s not how the draft process works in reality. Comparing the 3rd best corner to the 8th best offensive tackle does have its use if both players are on the board but that context is impossible to pick upfront without a supercomputer giving you the most likely scenarios based on the entire history of the league’s GMs. It really comes down to position of need vs luxury pick and that’s where the cross positional rankings come in but for me as an analyst I stick with positional rankings, position tiers and round grades.

Overall defensive class evaluation

Going into the draft season I had heard the talent of this defensive class was down compared to recent years and the tape really proved that. I have a lowly total of 8 first round grades for this class and even within those 8, there are only 2 I would even be considering inside the top half of the first round. So the peak of this class isn’t as high but there is a richness to the middle with many player typologies available to fulfill scheme needs. Day 2 is going to be where you see a surge of defensive additions because there are many good but not great players that can help teams fill out a roster so I expect trades up and down the board to keep us on our toes.

Due to trends of college defenses moving towards nickel as the base personnel the worst position group is linebacker and the best is slot/apex defensive backs. There is neither a peak or depth to the linebacker class, the highest grade I gave is a late 2nd and there are only 4 guys that earned a top 100 grade from me. As I mentioned on the latest Powderkeg Podcast episode, the full football pyramid shift to nickel from high school all the way the pros 4 or 5 years ago has meant this class are the first that have full career experience playing in this specific role. Therefore the talent in this class for players who will play in that spot is outstanding compared to past years and we will see teams being more comfortable taking them higher than ever before.

My best players

I mentioned there are two players that could crack the top 16 picks if I was the GM for all 32 teams. Let’s start with my number one defensive guy in this whole class; I think Byron Murphy II has the upside to be among those explosive interior defensive guys like Christian Wilkins, Justin Madubuike and Quinnen Williams who have broken into the top tier of new contracts for this position group. He can wreck gameplans on his own with his elite get off, fast feet and explosive hands but that’s not to say he can’t do the dirty work either, he has immensely strong lower legs that are all muscle meaning he can anchor against double teams and win going against a leverage disadvantage despite being on the wrong side of 300lbs. His ability to read run concepts when going hell for leather from the snap is wild, he can really process things to make the game slow down to a point where he can disrupt the backfield within a couple of seconds. I have no problem taking a guy of this talent, in the league’s newest star position, inside the top half of Day 1 and I would be surprised if he wasn’t a three down impact player right away.

The other elite player is Dallas Turner, the latest Alabama edge to hit the league, he is one of the more unique players in the draft in that his profile is light and fast but he possesses incredible strength. At 247 lbs he has explosive movement skills that show up on both tape and in his testing but it is his technical skill and clean mechanics that put him above Laiatu Latu and Jared Verse into his own tier at the top of this class. Turner has alignment and position flexibility after playing in a hybrid front and didn’t leave the field, he somehow managed to keep big guards off of his frame with his ridiculously long arms. Another element to his game that matches what the league is looking for more is his pass coverage, he is a real flats defender rather than someone who can drift into space, he has the vision, hip speed and footwork to get into passing lanes and disrupt quick game concepts.

My favorite players

These players are somewhere below the top ranked prospects but their values are outstanding based on the technical ability and athletic prowess shown on tape.

We’ll start with the player who has become this year’s draft crush for me; Cole Bishop, the safety from Utah. I’ll start by saying I have no idea what games analysts are watching that put him as a day 3 player but my word they are just plain wrong. This man can do everything you want as a safety, just turn on his Florida tape from this year and he is everywhere doing everything especially early on in the game where he just took over which is a rare feat for the guy aligned further from the ball. He has the size, speed and technical skills to be a versatile defender at all three levels and I will be excited to see how he attacks the league. Not only does he have the technical skills but his attitude, confidence and positional flexibility are all superb. His elite testing and senior bowl tape give more validity to his profile and I personally would be comfortable taking him at the top of the 2nd round which is a lot earlier than the consensus opinion.

The next favorite of mine is Mike Sainristil, this one is a lot less surprising as he’s creeping into first round consideration but you cannot watch Michigan tape without staring slack jaw at his incredible ability to fill various roles despite being 5 ft 10 and 182 lbs. Let’s put it this way; on a Michigan team that rotated everyone, Sainristil never left the field, in fact they would rather take off an outside corner than sacrifice his skills for even one snap. He is an incredibly smart player who directs traffic and could even wear the green dot for a team when playing in the slot. The apex position he will be stepping into is the en-vogue player role for the league’s defenses and he is by far the best in this class in that position. His testing doesn’t reflect how fast he plays, he flies around with a very quick trigger and whilst he is a smaller player he can really hit but overall his best ability is he is so sticky in coverage which is very hard to do with a two way go inside the hashes but consistently shows his comfortability in these situations.

The last of my favorites is another defensive back (I know completely shocking for the former safety to like secondary players) but this time it’s an outside corner who for some reason is going hugely underrated: Ennis Rakestraw Jr. The Missouri man is such a well rounded corner that can both get physical and cover with fluidity meaning his short area coverage might be the best in this class. His press technique is outstanding, his hands and feet are perfectly in sync leading to efficient movements that mean he’s rarely ever caught out of position. He’s also a dawg in the run game with a great attitude and genuine power even though he’s lighter than you’d want to see. His poor testing has dropped him down people’s boards but I think he would be a steal on Day 2.

My underrated prospects

If you’re looking for a raw talent with explosive potential late on Day 2 then Ruke Orhorhoro is your man. He has outstanding power, vision and speed that wins him affection from very early on despite being on a very talented Clemson line. He may still be developing despite his five years in school but his elite run stuffing ability should get him drafted high, the way in which he sees run concepts and executes gap jumps with incredible lateral ability is like no one else in this class.

In an underwhelming linebacker class I am surprised Ty’Ron Hopper isn’t getting more love. He is the ideal Will linebacker in a traditional even front and can even be a bigger apex defender in a modern odd front. At 6 ft 3 and 231 lbs he has the size to play multiple roles meaning he has the ability to keep him on the field for all three downs but it is his football mind that separates him in my view. He clearly studies film and he has a natural feel for run concepts plus he can really affect the passer on off ball/apex blitzes due to his disguise and timing.

This is pretty simple for me; if you strike out on taking Sainristil, you take Andru Phillips. He has fantastic tape that flashes with instincts beyond his years to pair with his elite speed and burst. He’s technically sound too but his slightness gets him in trouble against bigger receivers so he’s not going to be someone you can flex outside. He looks lighter than his 190 lbs but I’m willing to bet his frame can get another 10 on there to fill him out just enough to take on pro blockers out in space. His play speed is just as fast as his testing and it shows up with his quick trigger drive responses that have no delay in responding to what his eyes see. Phillips excites me as he can really unlock concepts and play multiple leverages in the same play call.

Guys I am not as high on

T’Vondre Sweat may be big but from what I’ve seen of him, that may be all he is. He lacks quick movement skills and he doesn’t use his size to flat out dominate like I’ve seen people say he does. He likes to split gaps and lift arms on his way through but he lacks the technical skill to counter when he gets up high and he often surges right past the run lane, this lack of control would be fine if he was explosive enough to allow others to overlap but he doesn’t do it quick enough to help. The biggest problem is how the NFL has used guys of his size who can’t sustain the speed of play for more than 60% of the snaps. I’ve seen take a lot of plays off and put in the bare minimum effort and that’s outside of the fact that if a play extends beyond a few seconds he is not going to be of any use. That limits him to a day 3 pick for me and if I was a GM it would take a lot to convince me he’s even worth any significant draft capital as he is essentially a 0 tech that can eat double teams and there’s not much place for that in the league now.

Jaden Hicks is another player who I absolutely do not understand the hype for. In the games I watched he allowed multiple touchdowns and big gains through poor understanding of what he was seeing to put him out of position. So when you add on the poor pursuit angles, missed tackles and all around poor technical skills including clunky hip mechanics, it really leads me to judge anyone who has him ranked in their top 100 as he just has none of the tools you look for in a modern day safety. Needless to say I am way way out on this prospect as his only calling card seems to be his size and speed and he didn’t even test that well and to quote our good friend Alohi Gilman; “play speed is only as fast as your eyes can take you”, in Hicks’ case they take him to the wrong place all too often.

Okay so this last one is a controversial one but hear me out; to me Quinyon Mitchell hasn’t shown enough to justify his first round hype and the consensus groupthink to put him to the top of the defensive rankings has gone way too far. Don’t get me wrong, Quinyon is a very talented prospect that has the potential to go very far but to say he’s the CB1 or that he could go top 15 is beyond reasonable. There are two major faults I have with his tape; the first is the level of competition because Toledo didn’t just avoid any Power 5 schools, they somehow managed to evade any competent offense all season long. Illinois was their toughest game and they finished ranked 46th in the country, none of their other opponents finished inside the top 100. Now if you go back to 2022 and watch the game against Ohio State you can see the upside of his natural athleticism but there were also errors that cannot be bridged without experience against peers of your own level. In that game he also showed some weakness when playing deep in breaking routes with untidy footwork. The other fault is the system he played within limiting his skill range, he played near 90% of his snaps 10 yards away from the ball and whilst Brandon Staley will be coveting that experience, even he would balk at how little experience he has playing press, trap or any other technique that required him to be in the same zip code as his receiver. I like the trigger and drive he has developed from being in this role but he’s shown more going forwards than he has backwards which as a cornerback is a very weird place to find yourself in. Overall this meant I dropped him down my rankings because I think the jump in competition and onboarding of multiple new techniques will slow down his development even if he is a freaky athlete.

The full rankings by position

So here it is; my final rankings can be found in this Google Sheet. I’m always willing to talk football and even more willing to debate where we may differ on a draft prospect so let me know in the comments, on Twitter or even under our Youtube videos, I’ll usually be lurking ready to chat!

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Kyle DeDiminicantanio(@kylededi)

#1

Admin

1 year ago

Nice job Ryan! I’m a huge fan of Hopper as a late-round add as well. 2-3 of these guys could definitely turn around the Bolt’s defense!

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