This is the hardest final roster to predict that I can remember in recent Chargers history.
IMO the Chargers would keep these positions on the final roster if possible:
- 3 QB
- 4 RB
- 1 FB
- 6 WR
- 4 TE
- 9 OL
- 6 IDL
- 5 Edge
- 5 LB
- 6 CB
- 5 S
- 1 PK
- 1 P
- 1 LS
But that is 57 players. IMO it comes down to eliminating 4 of these:
- 3rd QB – I’m very skeptical they will try to get either Lance or Heinicke to the practice squad, and I don’t think either would last there. I could see them trying to trade one of them over the next 8 days.
- 6th WR – IMO McConkey, Allen, Johnston, Harris, and KLS are locks, so to eliminate the 6th WR would require Davis to be waived or traded. I think this is possible if Miller-Hines makes the final roster, but it seems unlikely.
- 4th TE – At one point, I thought they might try to slide Fisk to the practice squad, but he played 22 snaps/game over the last 10 games last season, and I think the coaching staff really liked his run blocking, and he has played well in camp/preseason.
- 9th OL – I’m skeptical they want to do this given how OL centric they are… but do they really have a quality 8th OL, much less a quality 9th OL? I expect they will address this position group by claiming/signing players waived/released at cut down.
- 6th IDL – If they cut the 6th IDL, that probably means cutting Eboigbe. Seems possible, but unlikely.
- 5th Edge – IMO this seems like a likely cut. Could they determine a rationale to put Kennard on IR to clear a space for Morris-Brash or Murphy?
- 5th LB – Phillips has been injured. If he opens the season on PUP, it seems possible the team will go with just Henley, Perryman, Colson, and Dye. Frankly, with this roster crunch, they may be motivated to open the season with Phillips on PUP. Wax has played great in preseason, but the overall roster crunch makes me think he is a practice squad player.
- 6th CB / 5th safety – I think they will be forced to go with 10 DBs rather than 11; the easiest way to do this is to release Jefferson and sign him to the practice squad like last year. I will note, I don’t think Mickens would make it to the practice squad or last long on it if he did, so I don’t think cutting him makes sense. Assuming they keep 6 CBs, the battle for the final 3 spots is very tough to predict. I’m guessing they move on from Leonard and Taylor.
11th DB and 5th Edge both seem likely to go IMO. I could see 9th OL going, because they don’t have anyone good enough to warrant keeping. (They need to keep 8 OL on the 53 man roster in order to ensure they can elevate up to 2 players every week from the practice squad.)
That leaves one more. I’m thinking 3rd QB, 6th WR (Davis), or 5th LB.
Thoughts?
This could’ve gone in the Popper Hopper but felt like more conversational impact here.
My big concerns for this roster? IOL…even if Pipkins craps the bed at RT, I believe Salyer could step in and do a yoeman’s job. Becton lasting the whole season is quite iffy, IMO, and running back Bozeman and Zion is disappointing.
Popper expressed my feelings about the CB room….a bunch of guys. We’ll see.
And Colson? Disappointing.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6568564/2025/08/21/chargers-training-camp-parting-thoughts/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=12566676&source=dailyemail
I have a neophyte question, but that follows my long-term agitation announcement which I’m sure you were all desperately awaiting.
Agitation: very, very few players get “poached” during cut-downs. That does not mean it doesn’t happen, and that doesn’t mean a team doesn’t have to protect against the possibility. However, thirty-two teams releasing thirty-seven players leaves nearly twelve hundred players in line for the roughly five-hundred practice squad spots. Most teams make it a priority to sign their own while several teams will take a swing at the handful of valuable players left in the churn that match with team need. For Chargers’ sake, I think Heinicke is very low on outside radars, but maybe a team needs a so-so #2 . Vidal is likely as popular as Uiagalelei, which is to say, not at all. Tony Jefferson (with his veteran’s preferences), Ja’Sir Taylor, Del’Shawn Phillips aren’t exciting anyone. Hassan Haskins isn’t likely to get much interest. Kyle Kennard, however, could get some notice (on promise vs. very early production), as could Caleb Murphy. I know Hortiz has done a masterful job with the back end of the roster, but if the Chargers’ sixty-first guy ends up in… say… Phoenix, how hard should we cry?
Now, question. I believe the team can declare a maximum of two IR exemptions from the original 53, and these two MUST sit out for the first four weeks of the season. But my question is can they also put separate players on PUP or NFI at original cutdowns, or can they only call dibs on the IR guys? I really don’t know how this works.
Tau,
Interesting that you brought up placing Kennard on IR. I thought the same thing with him. Many teams have done the season ending “phantom IR” designation at the end of camp to manipulate the roster. The NY Giants did that with Victor Cruz after he had an insane camp, but they were in a roster crunch. I haven’t really seen or heard much from him in camp to lead me to believe he really showed out enough to make the 53, but with an early day 3 draft pick invested in him, they might want him to marinate in the program another year before deciding his eventual fate. At this point, both TMB and Murphy have earned the spot over him.
I would not want to cut Leonard. He is a fantastic ST player and he has played pretty well when called into action. He might clear waivers for a PS spot, but that’s questionable.
I agree on having Mickens on the 53. He has played well in the preseason and he has a good pedigree. I’m sure after what he has put on tape, that he would be drafted higher than he was. I do think Jefferson might get claimed. He has a good career of work on his resume and he still proved he has something in the tank. he’s in a weird spot because he probably wouldn’t garner anything back in a trade, but he might get claimed.
I think Heinecke has 7th rd draft pick trade written all over him. Lance has thoroughly outplayed him so far and he would never clear waivers. It will probably be DJ Uiagaleilei to the PS. I think Najee starts the year on PUP opening the door for Vidal. I think Sanders is already on the 53 with Hines to start the year.
There’s no way they’re going to start the year with 5 RBs + Najee on the injured list. I’m still wondering if they really expect Najee to miss the first four games, but even if he does, they still have Hampton, Haskins and Sanders who all appear to be ahead of Vidal and Hines.
I’d assume one of (if not both) of those last two get cut, depending on Najee Harris’ status.
Kennard on IR does make a lot of sense.
Leonard probably makes it unless Rogers has leapfrogged him?
There is no way Harris could be ready to play in an NFL game in week 1 at this point. He cannot be close to game shape. The GAC guys speculated that he probably hasn’t been able to even work out individually the way he normally would (e.g., lifting, etc.).
Does that mean he cannot be ready until week 5? Maybe not, but IMO having all of Hampton Sanders Vidal, and Hines gives them the luxury of taking it slow with Harris.
I suspect Harris has drastically altered his career trajectory with this injury. He would have opened this season as RB 1a on a run heavy team. Now I expect him to miss 4+ games and then be eased back into a RB2 role at best… not 1b unless the other RBs flop in his absence, which I don’t expect. The most likely outcome for him this season is to make minimal impact, something like 500 YFS, which means he would miss all of his incentives.Then he would hit the free agent market again with lower prospects than last offseason.
The cold business perspective on this is that the Chargers should release him at cutdowns. In that scenario, they just proceed with the group I mentioned above, which is still upgraded over last season. They would not have to pay his contract since it was a non-football injury; worst case, they would cut the cap hit to an injury settlement., meaning they would preserve / carry over the cap space. And he would not count in the comp pick formula, meaning the Chargers would get an extra pick or have a pick upgraded.
I don’t expect them to do it, but there is a reasonable argument they should. Same as the Bills did with Hines when he suffered his terrible injury in July 2023.
Very interesting take, spicy.
BUT, if Hampton were to get hurt, then a rotation of Sanders, Haskins, Vidal and Hines looks kinda terrible for the rest of the season, so I don’t really see how they just dump Harris.
I think I posted it somewhere in the comments, but I’ve been talking with Ryan and the TDU boys about the CBA saying that if a player isnt on your roster Week 1 (trades included), they dont count against your compensatory cancellation chart.
So if Najee were to be cut, the Chargers would only need one of JK Dobbins, Nick Neimann, or Morgan Fox to hit enough escalators to jump their contract to the $3.2-3.3M APY range. If they did, the 5th round comp pick Najee is canceling out would go to us.
So, the Chargers could in theory cut Najee, trade a 6th or a 7th for Brian Robinson (he’s supposedly on the trade block and a cut candidate, so I dont think it’d take much), and roll the dice on that 5th round compensatory pick coming back to them.
Personally, I’d be all-in on that move.
Sadly, I think I was incorrect with this comment. The examples I had found were pre-2020 CBA, where there was a midseason cutoff.
It appears Najee is going to contribute to the cancellation chart regardless, damn.
My mistake, team.
Even so, I’d be interested in trading for Brian Robinson for a late round pick next year.
Regarding Leonard, I expect that the team will keep 6 CBs. It seems that Still, Jackson, and Hart are locks, and I assume St. Juste is very likely to make it. That leaves 2 spots. Reports seem to indicate Taylor will make it for special teams. Do you really think the team will keep Leonard over Nikko for that last spot? I am skeptical. I would rather keep Leonard than Taylor, personally. But the easy way out for the team is to start Leonard on PUP/IR since he has been dealing with an injury. That enalbes them to kick the can.
I agree on keeping Leonard over Taylor. IMO, he has played better when he has been called upon and Taylor is a weak link every time he is on the field.
LB Phillips was back at practice today. If he gets and stays healthy over the next week, IMO that is 5 ILBs on the final roster. They signed him specifically to be a core special teams player, and I don’t see them cutting any of the other 4 (Henley, Perryman, Colson, Dye).
Good discussion. A few comments:
I was not expecting the final bullet!!
FWIW, I would place Najee on IR exempt, Cut Vidal, Keep Hines and Sanders.
RB Group for Wk 1 would be Hampton, Haskins, Hines, Rocket
The way I see it, Hines has performed in the NFL at a level Vidal is (statistically) unlikely ever to reach. Vidal has had some opportunities to show his wares since being drafted. I see an ok athlete who hasn’t given us any reason to think the jump from Troy to the NFL is a leap he can manage.
Hines is also a (way) better receiver and (substantially) better pass protector. He’s managed a couple explosives in the preseason too.
For me, it’s a no-brainer Hines > Vidal. I’m sure
Tau837 agrees :-p
Update: Actually, I will wait for the last preseason game on Rocket. It will be tough to carry him + Matlock (FB) + Fisk (TE). He’s potentially a PS candidate.
The way to do this is actually what I think they should do:
2 QB – Herbert, Lance
4 RB – Harris on NFI/PUP, Hampton, Sanders, Hines, Haskins
1 FB – rightly or wrongly, I think they want Matlock at FB
4 TE – I think they want Fisk on the roster, not the practice squad
6 WR – assuming they don’t want to waive/trade Davis
8 OL – the top 7 we know and a TBD player acquired at roster cutdowns
= 25 on offense
6 IDL – feels like everyone in the top 6 earned a spot
4 Edge – wouldn’t surprise me to see them find a reason to IR Kennard to make Murphy or Morris-Brash Edge 4
5 LB – if healthy, they keep Phillips who makes it 5 LBs
6 CB – embarassment of riches… even keeping 6, will have to cut 2 of St. Juste, Leonard, Taylor, Nikko, Rogers… maybe IR Rogers and/or Leonard?
4 S – either Gilman to IR or Jefferson to PS to open
= 25 on defense
+3 special teams = 53
Has Gilman suffered an injury that I’ve missed?
Totally agree with you about the OL. They’re struggling to find an 8th OL (let alone a 9th) and likely something they’ll look to address via other team’s cast-offs or via trade.
The CB group: Minter’s presser gives the impression that St Juste is making it despite playing like sh*t in the preseason games. Maybe some of it is because he’s pretty good on Special Teams and has the flexibility to play as a Big Nickel (when Derwin isn’t doing it). That gives the team some optionality around letting Ja’Sir + Leonard both walk. I’d like to see one of Nikko Reed or Rogers make this team. Preference is Reed. And Bridges should be cut.
For the Safeties, Mickens > TJ (if it comes to that).
I was thinking Gilman was nursing an injury, but I could be off on that.
Gilman was hurt early in the last pre-season game. I do think he’s practicing this week (couldn’t find anything that said he wasn’t).
I don’t think these cuts will end up being that hard. They’ll probably end up with at least 1 or 2 guys on IR (Harris, Johnston, Kennard, etc). They won’t carry 3 QBs, 5 RB/FB and 4 TE. My guess is they’ll cut a RB or TE, although I guess I wouldn’t be shocked if they cut a QB. It will depend somewhat on the health of Johnston and Harris.
As mentioned, 8 OL seems possible at the start of the season. They’re going to need bring in some outside help, the only question is whether that is before the season starts or during.
On defense they’ll keep 10 DBs, not 11 as you mentioned, and I also agree they will break camp with only 4 OLBs.
I am thinking:
2 QB. If Justin gets hurt will it really matter.
5 CB’s some of the safeties can slide in if another CB is needed
8 OL (unless they can find someone else to bring in)
3 RB with at least one more on the practice squad
Or perhaps….it could could be to me Fisk vs. Matlock. If Fisk is such a good blocker why can’t he play the FB role from time to time? I honestly don’t see Matlock making that many great blocks. Yeah he plays DL so that helps but is he a difference maker there? He had 9 tackles there last year. I understand his job may be to plug the OL to allow the LB to make the plays but I haven’t seen anything great yet. Then I look at Fisk and if an added blocker is needed maybe Matlock could step in to that role? Anyways it should be interesting they may use the injury list to stash a few of the guys they want to keep.
Whether or not I would agree, I think the Chargers coaching staff wants Matlock. Barring injury, I feel like his roster spot is safe.
I can see 2 QBs and 8 OL.
am skeptical about just 5 CBs For 5 CB, that would imply cutting all but 2 of St. Juste, Leonard, Taylor, Reed, Rogers, and Bridges. Maybe Rogers and Bridges are easy but cutting to 2 of the other 4 is not as easy.
I am skeptical about just 3 RBs. That would likely mean Harris on NFI/PUP and Hampton (rookie), Sanders (rookie), and Haskins. IMO it is likely Miller-Hines makes the roster as the 4th RB. He adds a different skillset at RB, he is a veteran, and he can return kickoffs and punts.
It’s crazy looking at this listing, wondering how they squeeze it down, and then remembering they had 7 WRs after cut day. Nuts, lots of tough decisions for sure.
I think there’s a good chance QJ alleviates some of the pressure by starting on the PUP. Although his concussion didn’t appear as severe as Parham’s, he had a visible fencing posture, and Parham was out for a very long time.
I actually think we might carry five EDGEs because Caleb Murphy has done a solid job as a four-core STer. He might free up the team to roll with 4 LBs.
I think TJ made it through to the PS last year because it was very unclear if he’d be properly conditioned or able to physically hold up for the year after a retirement stint. I’m not sure he makes it through again. He looks capable of starting if we didn’t have such a talented safety room. RJ Mickens looks to have a ton of potential too. With Minter deploying Derwin and Mickens as primarily slow/box defenders, and Elijah having the ability to play safety and CB, I really hope they just run 5 CBs. Donte Jackson, Still, Hart, should be the locks. If we went off merit, Nikko Reed and Eric Rogers would be next up (although Rogers might be PUP’d). St Juste hasn’t provided a edge over what any of the fringe guys have… and I hope Mickens has made him expendable.
The running back room is the weird one. If the team keeps Hines and Haskins, we’re using two RB slots to carry guys that primarily function as STers. Hines has some pass catching prowess and is a great pass blocker, but Haskins is a good blocker as well and Roman doesn’t really pass to his RBs as much as a he could/should. I don’t mind waiving Vidal and hoping he makes it to the PS, but I hope they don’t give teams a chance to grab Rocket Sanders. I’m normally pretty confident that teams can stash UDFAs pretty easily, but Sanders seems like a guy we’re going to need Week 1 – assuming Harris isn’t ready to tote the rock.
If Hines is mainly in consideration because of his return abilities – I think Luke Grimm deserves a huge look. He’s looked great… and I’m still not out on Davis.
I agree with the 8 OL comment. I wouldn’t be shocked if they enter cuts with an 8 OL roster and another position like DB or LB having an extra player that ends up getting waived after the Chargers pick up a post-cut OL.
FWIW, the GAC guys have asserted recently that as good as Murphy has been this preseason, Morris-Brash has been as good or better. Keeping 5 Edge players with this roster crunch will be tough, though.
The quality the team has had at safety under Harbaugh and Hortiz is a good reason not to spend so much on the position. They would be fine without Gilman, for example. But that is a different conversation. As for Jefferson, as a vet he does not get waived; he would just be released and signed to PS. Could another team sign him? Sure, possibly, if he is interested in moving to another city for vet minimum. IMO it is more likely he would choose to stay.
I think Hines should make the team as RB2/3 (with Sanders and with Haskins as RB4, ignoring Harris for now). Hines brings an element of speed and pass catching ability (entered college as WR) not otherwise present in the RB room. He is also a veteran who can help mentor the rookie RBs. Any special teams play from him is icing on the cake. I know Roman hasn’t used his RBs a lot in the passing game, but he should do more of it.
I agree with that sentiment that Roman should use RBs more in the passing game, but what makes you think Hines brings anything? He hasn’t played more than 200 snaps since 2022 (and even that season he only played half a season). He’s now almost 29 years old and hasn’t really shown much. I admire the comeback attempt, but just not really seeing what he offers at this point unfortunately. I’m sure they can just get him on the practice squad.
Hines is better at everything (rushing, receiving, pass blocking, returns) than Vidal. He is also easily their fastest RB.
Yes, he missed the past two seasons because of one injury, but that means he is fresh and has less wear and tear on his body than his age could suggest.
It is also worth noting that Vidal left practice early yesterday, so he may be dealing with an injury.
All of that was true for sure, not sure if it is any longer. There’s no way he’s running a sub-4.4 forty anymore. Anyways, I’m not a huge advocate of Vidal or anything, but I’m just not sure Hines really merits a big debate about a roster spot. I do like that he can pass block and catch a pass though.
Recent quote from Hines:
If he is back to his previous capability level, which the coaches obviously know, then what I said is true. I don’t see any reason to think he would lie about his speed.
I don’t see this as a big debate over a roster spot. Either the coaches believe he is back to form or they don’t. If the former, he deserves a spot over Vidal; if the latter, Vidal gets the spot.
Tau,
Any thoughts on them stashing Kennard on season ending IR making room for both TMB and Murphy? Both have shown out more than Kennard. I would hope a 4th Rd tag doesn’t assure him a spot over more deserving players. I also think Heinecke is an easy 7th Rd trade chip. He would probably be the best QB on the Saints right now. Trading him would be like adding the coveted comp picks. I doubt they cut Harris. i think they PUP him and see how the RB room plays out ion the first month. These things usually have a way of working themselves out. I would strongly consider keeping 9 OL. Becton is already questionable with his lack of camp time and I could easily see him out in the first few weeks of the season. We are already starting a swing OL for the season and we need all the depth we can get there, IMO.
Reserve/PUPThe new rule about two players who can be placed on IR on the business day of final cuts and those two players can be designated to return after the miss 4 games. Let’s call this IR/ExemptReserve/NFI list.I had understood that these are three separate mechanisms.
Najee would quality under the last one.
Is this some loophole that would allow the Chargers to keep many different players but not have them count towards the 53? (Kennard, Leonard, Najee, Colson, whoever else)?
I’m not an expert on this, but I believe NFL teams can have up to 8 players go on IR and return to the roster during the season.
One reason the NFI/PUP list might matter is that Harris going onto one of those lists and then returning would not count as one of those 8 players who can return from IR. I think that is the case.
No player on IR, PUP, NFI counts against the 53 man roster while under those designations. They could put Harris on NFI and 2 other players on IR on cutdown day. Even if they all returned later, they would still have 6 more IR returns remaining for the season.