We’ve just released Episode 109 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis for Episode 109 is below:
It’s 3 weeks until the 2025 NFL Draft and what better time to welcome Guilty as Charged’s Steven and Tyler back on Thunder Down Under Chargers! Together we discuss all the recent team news before undertaking a critical off-season exercise: Setting the Chargers’ Big Board! What discussions would GM Joe Hortiz, Assistant GM Chad Alexander and their scouts be having behind closed doors? Which draft prospects are the best fits for the Bolts? What strategy should be applied on Draft Day? We discuss it all so listen to find out!
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Hope you enjoy the episode! Thanks so much for listening 🙂
Alister (@TDU_Alister)
2022: Zion played 18 games; Linsley played 15. Zion’s pass blocking grade: 52.8
2023: Zion played 15 games; Linsley played 3. Zion’s pass blocking grade: 58.8.
2024: Zion played 18 games; Linsley played 0. Zion’s pass blocking grade: 62.4.
At least based on PFF pass blocking grades, it doesn’t appear that your memory is accurate. 😉
Yes, IMO the correct answer was to do both.
Ford came up when discussing the question of whether or not Hortiz’s approach limits the Chargers’ ceiling. I think it does. Ford is a great example, but not the only one.
As of right now, I would say the offense has been moderately upgraded and the defense has been substantially downgraded. (The loss of both Ford and Bosa is a lot to overcome, and, so far, it hasn’t been).
They still have so many significant needs (here I use “long term” to mean 2+ years, i.e., beyond just 2025):
Long term RB1 (1 stud player approach) or RB1a and RB1b (2 player approach)
Long term WR 1a/1b to pair with Ladd
Long term TE1
One more IOL upgrade, whether at LG or C
Long term Edge 1a/1b
Long term IDL 1a/1b caliber run defender — like Ford could have been
Long term IDL 1a/1b caliber pass rusher
To really solve these through the draft typically requires Day 1 or 2 picks, or requires getting lucky. Which implies most of these needs will not be solved in the 2025 draft.
This is where I thought the real opportunity was missed. Hortiz could have used his significant salary cap space to solve 1-2 of these positions prior to the draft. He chose not to do that, and that is where I am disappointed in this offseason to date.
Knowing the Chargers have what seems to be a much harder schedule in 2025 than 2024, right now it appears there is a lot of work to do to win 10 games and make the playoffs again, much less win a playoff game.
I agree with Tyler’s comment that right now this team probably isn’t good enough to win a playoff game. They still have the draft ahead, but so does every other AFC playoff contender. Every team is expecting to get better in the draft.
I still have a lot of faith in Hortiz and Harbaugh (though I disagree that Hortiz has not made any blunders). I’m cautiously optimistic they will find a way. It just seems like they have not made as much progress as I was expecting by this point.
I started listening to the podcast but I’m only maybe 1/3 of the way through so far. More comments later.
I question PFFs scoring the mental aspects of interior OL play. I think the scores generally reflect the players ability to win a rep against the player they’re up against. What happened far too often in 2024 was Bozeman/Johnson standing around with their thumbs up their asses while free rushers were wizzing by them to smash Herbert. They may have “won” the double-team they engaged in, but both failed to recognize stunts and make adjustments far too often. Don’t think that happened as often with Linsley on the field. Don’t think PFF adjusts for not adjusting protections for stunts.
I think making good decisions will typically lead to good outcomes. I can live with a good decision leading to a bad outcome as I know that bad outcome is going to be the exception, not the rule. A little more than a year into the Hortiz era, the only decision I do not agree with is letting Ford walk. Now, that could turn out to be the right decision. Ford was not good in 2023 & this defensive coaching staff has proven their ability to make chicken salad out of chicken shit. They had Ford in the building for a year and decided to let him walk. I don’t like it, but I have much more confidence this leadership team know what they’re doing.
Not sure what you were expecting, but I think they’ve done a very good job thus far in FA. At this point, the Chargers are better on offense (WR, TE, OL are BETTER, the only position you could argue is worse is RB, which is going to be addressed in the draft). The interior DL is a question mark, but I think DB is at least neutral and LBs are all back. I don’t see the drop-off on defense.
I expect the 2025 Chargers will be significantly better than 2024. My primary concern is Greg Roman. If Shane Day, Marc Trestman and/or Marcus Brady can inject some creativity into the scheme (I think all three are capable), then this could be a very good team.
@kevdiego
Unless I am misunderstanding what you are saying, I believe this is wrong. If a defender gets a pressure on a stunt, there is no doubt in my mind that PFF assigns responsibility for that to an offensive player. If you are thinking about stunts involving Bozeman and Zion or Slater and Zion, then in each case one or both are assigned to having allowed it, which negatively impacts their grade(s).
I agree on Ford. But an even more egregious decision, and the worst Hortiz has made so far IMO, is not drafting a center in the 2024 center-rich draft. It hurt the Chargers in 2024 and it stands to hurt them again in 2025 and maybe other years to follow, since we don’t know yet when they will actually solve their center problem.
I have a mixed reaction to this. Yes, agree the leadership team knows what they are doing, and I have confidence in them. That does not mean they get everything right, however.
The fact that Ford was not good in 2023 is completely irrelevant to me. That was with a different coaching staff, defensive scheme, and set of teammates, and maybe a different role. That had no effect on how well he played for the Chargers in 2024, under their coaching staff in their defensive scheme and with his Chargers teammates.
Today, before the draft, you don’t see a dropoff? You don’t see a dropoff from:
[33 year old Mack, Bosa, 2nd year Tuli, 31 year old Dupree] to [34 year old Mack, 3rd year Tuli, 32 year old Dupree, Morris-Brash]?
[Ford, Tart, Fox, Ogbonnia, Matlock, Eboigbe] to [Hand, Jones, Tart, Ogbonnia, Matlock (?), Eboigbe]?
Seriously? I will definitely have to agree to disagree on that. I anticipate they will attempt to address this in the draft, but you are appearing to say you don’t see a dropoff now.
From PFF.com:
While I’m sure there’s a lot of science in developing PFF grades, determining what a particular players assignment was on a specific play can be subjective. It’s also difficult to determine who’s responsibility adjusting protections was. Bozeman was the 5th highest graded player on the offense in the Texans playoff game. If PFF is adjusting for failures in setting protections, that score makes no sense. Bozeman and QJ were big contributors to that loss.
Yea, I agree. Specifically, I think taking Tanor Bortolini instead of Eboigbe was a mistake (and said so at the time). I guess I’m jaded from years of watching the Chargers flush 3rd round picks on players like McKitty. So, agree, they should have drafted a center in 2024 (they also should have drafted a TE in 2023…).
On the PFF exchange, I may have misinterpreted your original statement. I agree that PFF has no way to assign full or partial responsibility to the center for a pressure that isn’t allowed by the center but results from a bad protection call by the center. I thought you were saying they had no way to assign responsibility for missing a stunt, which isn’t the same thing.
I’ll restate my comment. PFF assigns responsibility for every pressure to 1-2 offensive players, typically one OL, but sometimes two OL or sometimes one OL and a RB, TE, or even QB. They presumably do that based on the player(s) they believe should have successfully blocked the defender and prevented the pressure (or for QB, for holding the ball too long). If they believe Zion should have picked up the defender and didn’t, that will result in a negative impact on his grade on that play.
This tangent began in talking about Zion’s PFF grades. What you seem to be saying is that maybe Zion’s grades deserve to be a bit better, since some negatives PFF would assign to him were really Bozeman’s fault for not properly calling protections. I could agree with that, and I don’t think there is any possible way for PFF to overcome that particular issue.
I will cite again something I have mentioned here before, since it is OL focused. From ‘We’re like a machine’: Cris Collinsworth defends PFF grades against players’ gripes:
When Clapp was hurt and Jaimes played, Jaimes was definitely worse, but the overall OL play was better. There was more cohesion and less confusion. When I had my sideline seats (behind the Chargers bench) at the Atlanta game, Jaimes was not playing, but was super engaged in talking to the other OL and watching film. It struck me that this dude had a much higher football IQ. Sucks that he’s not physically gifted enough for the position.
I view Bozeman like another Clapp. Not the best player, but not terrible. Overall, he brings down the overall play of the line.
Meant to say “started watching center play in 2023.”
Kyle: We need an edit function…
Bosa played 503 snaps and had 39 pressures. Tuli already played 774 snaps, so he can’t absorb much, if any, of those snaps. Mack and Dupree played 668 and 570 snaps, respectively. At their ages, their combined snaps seem more likely to decline than increase. A young 1a/1b caliber Edge is a huge need IMO.
Interior pass rush was not a strength for the Chargers last season. The IDL group had a total of 96 pressures. Fox and Ford combined for 57 of those. Hand and Jones combined for 24. Fox (32) and Ford (25) each had more than their combined total.
On run defense, Hand and Jones combined for 27 tackles, 17 assists, and 21 run stops. Ford and Fox combined for 43 tackles, 23 assists, and 29 run stops. That is a clear dropoff, though perhaps not as severe as the interior pass rush dropoff.
Bottom line, a young 1a / 1b IDL is still a huge need IMO.
I expect these position groups will be addressed in the draft, but I’m skeptical they will be able to solve both, unless they are willing to use 2 of their first 3 picks on these two position groups.
Like I said already, I agree to disagree with you on the current state of the defense.
It’s also apples/oranges to compare the pre-draft April roster with the September (or November) roster. There will be (at least) 20 more players added to this roster. There should be some good IDL talent available on day 3.
Well, I literaly wrote this in the post you responded to that started this tangent:
You responded with this:
Maybe I don’t read your posts very well, but that sounded like a right now conversation, not a September/November projection conversation.
Aside from that, I am ready for the Chargers to actually invest in some actual stud players in the IDL, not just bargain bin free agents and late round draft picks. Here is what they have right now contending for roster spots:
Hand – bargain bin free agent; 2018 4th round pick
Jones – bargain bin free agent; 2021 UDFA
Tart – bargain bin free agent; 2020 UDFA
Ogbonnia – 2022 5th round pick
Eboigbe – 2024 4th round pick
Matlock – 2023 6th round pick
Hinton – 2022 UDFA
Collins – 2024 UDFA
The Chargers probably have less draft capital/pedigree in this group than any other team in the league. How many years has it been since the Chargers had an All Pro caliber DT? It’s time.
My only slight disagreement in this conversation is regarding Poona Ford. For the record, I DID want him back.
BUT, I can also see where the Chargers were coming from in not re-signing Poona and that is because he himself has not been a consistent player in his career. Part of the reason he was in the bargain bin last year was due to previous issues with his motivation/effort.
I’m guessing they had a value on him and just wouldn’t exceed it and in this case I believe that it was understandable. 2024 could’ve easily been the best season of his career.
Not that I don’t want to add top talent to the TE room, but the offense can function with Conklin/Dissly.
On the flipside, the defense is one injury away from having an anemic pass rush that would put the defense in a very difficult position against top QBs. Especially considering that they haven’t even replaced Bosa’s snaps (as you mentioned above)
I think adding to the DL/pass rush is much more important right now than the 3 catches a game that Loveland would contribute.
That said, I would make an exception for Warren or Loveland. But I don’t expect either of them to make it to 22, which should make the decision easier IMO.
Considering Bowers was a better prospect than both of them and made it to 13, I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them (likely Loveland) is there at 22.
Last year’s TE crop was weak, but the year before when it was “stacked”, Kincaid still didn’t get drafted until 25 and then LaPorta at 34, Meyer at 35 and Musgrave at 42 (then a bunch of other mid rounders).
I don’t think Warren and in particular Loveland are better prospects than Kincaid/LaPorta/Mayer were and I tend to think that fans seem to overvalue TE position more than NFL GMs do and there are obvious reasons for this (most notably cap management, and then offensive game plan).
That said, I do think the reason why Warren and Loveland are continually mocked so high this year is not because they are so good, but more because the rest of the draft class is very weak in the top 10 – 20 players this year.
Personally, even if Loveland is still there, if there is an Edge left with a 1st round grade, I’d take the Edge player.
Dane Brugler published his top 100 in February and hasn 217;t updated it yet. At that time, he had Warren #10 overall and Loveland #11 overall.
Lance Zeuerlein at NFL.com has Warren at #4 overall (6.77 grade) and Loveland at #6 overall (6.70 grade). For comparison, here are some of his other TE grades:
7.19 Pitts
7.00 Henry
6.80 Hockenson
6.71 Bowers
6.48 Kincaid
6.44 Mayer
6.31 McBride
6.20 Andrews
6.18 LaPorta
The PFF Big Board has Warren at #8 overall and Loveland at #25 overall.
The Chargers 217; board is the only one that matters, obviously, but these are media sources I respect.
I agree with Edge/IDL need and talent, but Loveland would be an amazing pairing with Herbert, and he obviously has the Michigan connection. I can see him as the pick if avaialble.
I guarantee you if they were in the same draft class that Zeuerlein would not have had the grades that way. I don’t think there is any pundit that would try and make that case that those guys are on equal footing as Bowers.
Bowers was the best TE prospect I’ve seen since probably Vernon Davis (2008) IMO.
Warren is not a good blocker. I’ve studied these players a lot. He’s got potential for sure due to his size and willingness but he hasn’t proven to be a good blocker at this point. Loveland may have been a better blocker last season honestly, but neither of them are good blockers and not much better (if at all) than Bowers was at Georgia. Bowers wasn’t really asked to block much either.
I would draft Warren at 22 for the record, I think he’s a better player overall than Loveland. I still think Bowers was a much better prospect than both of them though and Bowers backed it up with his Year 1 NFL production.
From what I’ve watched and the makeup of our current TE room, I’d take Loveland as quickly as I would Warren. Add in the Michigan/Harbaugh connection and it’s nearly a wash.
But other than that, I think you could argue that the James Pearce Jnr, Mykel Williams, Shemar Stewarts and Donovan Ezeirakus of the world (because of their vairous ‘red flags’), have a similar chance of ‘hitting’ as some guys like Landon Jackson, Princely Umanmielen, Bradyn Swinson, who might be there at the back-end of Round 2.
I would have them all graded fairly similarly tbh.
The major disagreement point for me (that I didn’t bother expressing) was that I have some Edge and WR prospects that I would happily support the Chargers drafting at 1.22.
I like where we landed as a “war room” (ie, agreeing that it’s a deeper WR class so hold-off until Round 2).
But I didn’t like the conclusion reached that all the Edge players who’ll be available at 1.22 have a risk profile that makes waiting until Rounds 3-4 the better approach.
If the Chargers took Jalen Walker, Mykel Williams, one of the character risk prospects (Pearce Jnr, Mike Green) or, alternatively, took a chance on Matthew Golden from Texas on Offense? I would still walk away from Draft Night pleased as a Chargers fan.
My best outcome for Draft Night (other than something completely unexpected happening, eg Jeanty) would be Colston Loveland to the Chargers or one of the DTs. But it is not the only path that would make me happy.
I would also be happy with them addressing IOL at 1.22 (Zabel, Booker, Donovan Jackson) but how I feel about that will depend on who else was on the Board at the time.
Tier 1:
WR/CB Hunter
Edge Abdul-Carter
Tier 2:
Edge Walker
IDL Graham
RB Jeanty
Tier 3:
TE Warren
TE Loveland
IDL Harmon
IDL Grant
Tier 4:
Edge Stewart
Edge Williams
IDL Nolen
Edge Ezeiruaku
Edge Green
CB Johnson
That should be more than enough, since I expect at least 8 players at QB, OL, WR, S to go before 1.22.
I don’t expect any of the players I have in Tiers 1-2 to reach 1.22, and I doubt more than 3-4 of the others will be there, maybe not even that many.
Obviously, I don’t list any OL or WR.
I don’t think there is a player worth taking to play IOL, whether G or C, including drafting tackle converts. Maybe in the second or later, but not the first, not with the wealth of Edge/IDL talent.
While there may be a couple WRs who would upgrade the group for the Chargers, I don’t think any of them (besides Hunter) would deliver the same value as any of the players I listed. Plus, I expect WR value can be found later.
This is today. I’m sure I’ll learn more between now and the draft that will influence my thinking and cause me to change this list.
Ezeiraku lacks ideal size:
Ezeiraku – listed at 6’2″, 247
Williams – listed at 6’5″, 265
Stewart – listed at 6’6″, 290
Ezeiraku faced weaker competition (ACC vs. SEC)
I haven’t gotten deeply into draft rankings yet, but I have been looking at these: Athletic consensus big board; Dane Brugler top 100 (Feb) at the Athletic; Lance Zeuerlein at NFL.com; and PFF big board. Of these sources, all but PFF have Ezeiruaku ranked/graded below Williams and Stewart.
Just watched….great episode!! Loved the format and nice to have the GAC guys in the mix.
First, a couple of perhaps alternate takes. Let’s look at Zion to center. Yes, I absolutely recognize his struggles with picking up stunts/twists. I don’t have access to past seasons of PFF scores but, if memory serves, he performed better in this capacity with Linsley at center and making the blocking calls. By all accounts Zion is a very smart guy. So….perhaps part of his issue is misreads/miscommunication from the center? I may be reaching here but perhaps he’d do better reading and making those calls than relying on someone not as adept at it…..say, a Bozeman? Then again, this could also be a last resort reclamation kinda move.
Poona….yeah, I get it and don’t disagree that he could have easily been brought back. I’m leaning toward the camp that sees a gifted, deep DT draft and wants to draft and develop youth at that position. In fairness, it really didn’t need to be either/or. They could’ve afforded to pay Poona AND draft a stud. For now, I’m trusting Hortiz. He hasn’t made any blunders, IMO.
Couple of names I kinda wish I’d heard mentioned to get input on. At RB, my guy Bhayshul Tuten. He could certainly be the lightning to Harris’s thunder. At WR, Savion Williams. Intrigued by his size and athletic ability.
Again, good show. Jack absolutely gave away his quiz question….lol.
Almost draft time, mates!!! Thanks for doing what you do.
Of the 5 of us, I think I’m the one who’s been most optimistic that Zion could make a successful transition to Center:
I think his power and athletic profile translate well for the position.
He is also bright academically and, as we know, the Center positon has always come with the trope that it suits intelligent individuals.
However, I’m glad that they signed Andre James. Although taking responsibility for calling protections could be the solution to Zion’s processing issues, it would be a big risk to enter the season with that being the primary plan. He also hasn’t played Center before in a college or NFL game. So I like the idea of Zion at Center, but would make him earn the snaps through training camp and preseason.
Not re-signing Poona was the worst move of the offseason so far, in my opinion (including any other non-move you could throw at me):
Gambling on other cheaper players (Hand, Naquan) or draft picks to (even partially) replicate Poona’s abilities seems unnecessarily risky when the contract he got from the Rams was affordable.
The counterargument is his age (30) and form slump in Buffalo for a season suggest there is some risk there and so Hortiz has opted to bank his good season and take the comp pick.
But surely there’s some advantage to continuity in the locker room and familiarity with scheme and teammates when pushing for deep playoffs. They should have re-signed Poona.
I’ll let you know what I think of Tuten and Savion when I get to them Buck. I ‘ate my vegetables‘ first this year starting with trench players, and it’s only now that I’m rolling through the WRs, RBs, TEs, CBs.
I’ve watched one game of Tuten v Boston College this year. He’s obviously supremely physically gifted. As I get to more of his tape I’ll be looking to see if he’s more than a one-cut runner in an outside zone heavy system (which he seems to be perfectly suited for). My initial watch told me he could have a little more to his game than that. But his profile obviously projects as a guy who the Jim Harbaughs of the world will pass on, whereas the Shanahan, McDaniel, O’Connell, Arthur Smith types will aggressively pursue.
Savion Williams I’ve read a lot about (focus drops, Cordarelle Patterson-lite, freak athlete) but will have to form my own view when I watch his and Jack Bech’s TCU tape later this week.
(Jack ruined the quiz………….)
Thanks for watching!
Quick comment on this, OverTheCap is not currently projecting the Chargers to get any 2026 comp picks. So far:
The Chargers lost 3 Compensatory Free Agents (CFA): IDL Ford, CB Fulton, WR Palmer.
The Chargers signed 5 CFAs: RG Becton, CB Jackson, RB Harris, WR Williams, TE Conklin
OTC projects them to cancel out. I realize this isn’t final, but I think this is likely accurate for now. If ASJ gets signed before the Monday following the draft, that could help, but currently Conklin and Williams aren’t even entering the calculation, so I doubt it would make the difference.
I suppose one could argue that Hortiz didn’t know how all of this would shake out at the time of his decision on Poona, but with so much cap space and with him knowing his plan for external free agent targets, it seems like it was obviously foreseeable, in which case comp pick logic should not have been a factor in his Poona decision.
I would also point out that his approach to mostly targeting lower middle or below market contracts for free agents with many 1 year deals implies that the Chargers are regularly going to enter the offseason with a lot of cap space… which could impact the comp formula in future seasons beyond 2026 in exactly the same manner as discussed here. From a comp pick perspective, better to actually pick particular offseasons to lock up some extrernal free agents to longer term contracts, planning to get comp picks in the other offseasons. Does this make sense?
Jack did ruin the quiz. No way any American should ace the Aussie quiz…