From the Athletic:
I settled on a more fluidย approach for strength of schedule rankings: Super Bowl oddsย (which we have here). Unlike win totals, which can skew based on prior wins (i.e., the 2-2 Bengals have become worse than a typical team with that record), Super Bowl odds are a strong, moving measurement of how good a team is currently. Back to the program.
Here are the five toughest schedules to this point, based on combined opponent Super Bowl odds:
- Titans, 0-4
- Giants, 1-3
- Eagles, 4-0ย
- Saints, 0-4
- Chargers, 3-1
As for the five easiest schedules so far:
- Bills by a mile, 4-0
- Cardinals, 2-2
- Patriots, 2-2
- Broncos, 2-2
- Colts, 3-1
This is the projection using this method for the rest of the season:


I just asked Grok to rank the SOS for the remainder of the season:
The 2025 NFL season strength of schedule (SOS) rankings for the remaining games are based on the cumulative winning percentage of each team’s remaining opponents as of Week 5, as well as alternative metrics like NFL power rankings where applicable. Hereโs a detailed ranking of the remaining strength of schedule for all 32 NFL teams, from hardest to easiest, based on available data:
Notes on Methodology:
Additional Insights:
I also asked Grok to predict the remainder of the Chargers schedule – a few inaccuracies in here, but the expectations are close to what I expect:
Analysis of the LA Chargers’ Remaining Schedule
The Los Angeles Chargers enter Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season with a 3-1 record (1st in the AFC West), following a strong start with wins over the Kansas City Chiefs (Week 1 in Brazil), Denver Broncos (Week 3), and Las Vegas Raiders (Week 2), but a surprising 21-18 road loss to the New York Giants (Week 4). Their Week 5 game against the Washington Commanders was a tight victory, extending their undefeated streak against division foes. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the team has shown grit in close games, ranking highly in red-zone efficiency and turnover margin (+5, tied for 3rd in the NFL). However, quarterback Justin Herbert has been sacked 47 times already (2nd-most in the league), highlighting ongoing offensive line vulnerabilitiesโexacerbated by left tackle Joe Alt’s recent ankle injury, though he’s expected to miss minimal time.
The Chargers have 12 games remaining, including a Week 12 byeโtheir first since 2019. Their full schedule was released in May 2025, featuring five prime-time games and a mix of AFC West rivalries, NFC North crossovers, and AFC South matchups. Overall, this is a moderately tough remaining slate, with an estimated opponent win percentage around .522 (tied for 11th-hardest in the NFL per preseason projections). Key factors:
Schedule Strengths/Weaknesses:
Predicted Record
Based on current trends, power rankings, and win probabilities (derived from ESPN FPI, BetMGM models, and historical Harbaugh close-game successโLAC is 3-1 in one-score games), I project the Chargers to finish 11-6 overall (8-4 remaining). This assumes:
Game-by-Game Prediction:
This would mark Harbaugh’s second straight winning season, building on their 2024 wild-card appearance.
Playoff Chances
The Chargers’ playoff odds are extremely high at 89% (implied from FanDuel’s -800 line, up from -650 preseason). Here’s why:
In summary, the Chargers are poised for a deep playoff run, potentially as the AFC’s No. 3 seed. Their balanced attack and Harbaugh’s coaching give them a puncher’s chance at the Super Bowl (+1400 odds, 6.7% implied).
Cool, so the Chargers already beat the Commanders? ๐
If Grok said it, it must be true. Time to go make a bet…
Don’t place a bet on “emerging RB Gus Edwards” ๐
And KC looms large twice more…..
This is interesting, but the primary metric Grok used here is 2025 winning percentage, which is (a) small sample size, and (b) not accounting for factors like Burrow’s injury.
Completely agree. I do think 11 wins is the most likely outcome.
Very interesting take. Would be great to revisit this throughout the season.
How does the remaining schedule look like with this method?
I just added that to the post.