From the Athletic:

I settled on a more fluidย approach for strength of schedule rankings: Super Bowl oddsย (which we have here). Unlike win totals, which can skew based on prior wins (i.e., the 2-2 Bengals have become worse than a typical team with that record), Super Bowl odds are a strong, moving measurement of how good a team is currently. Back to the program.

Here are the five toughest schedules to this point, based on combined opponent Super Bowl odds:

  1. Titans, 0-4
  2. Giants, 1-3
  3. Eagles, 4-0ย 
  4. Saints, 0-4
  5. Chargers, 3-1

As for the five easiest schedules so far:

  1. Bills by a mile, 4-0
  2. Cardinals, 2-2
  3. Patriots, 2-2
  4. Broncos, 2-2
  5. Colts, 3-1

This is the projection using this method for the rest of the season:

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KevDiego
KevDiego(@kevdiego)
4 months ago

I just asked Grok to rank the SOS for the remainder of the season:

The 2025 NFL season strength of schedule (SOS) rankings for the remaining games are based on the cumulative winning percentage of each team’s remaining opponents as of Week 5, as well as alternative metrics like NFL power rankings where applicable. Hereโ€™s a detailed ranking of the remaining strength of schedule for all 32 NFL teams, from hardest to easiest, based on available data:

  1. Los Angeles Rams – Hardest remaining schedule based on cumulative 2025 opponent win percentage.
  2. Detroit Lions – Tied for the most difficult remaining schedule due to facing 11 games against 2024 playoff teams, alongside a tough NFC North and other strong opponents.
  3. Houston Texans – Tied with Lions, Cardinals, and Commanders for the most difficult remaining schedule based on opponent win percentage. Faces a challenging AFC South and cross-conference matchups.
  4. Arizona Cardinals – Also tied for the toughest remaining schedule, with opponents’ cumulative winning percentage indicating a brutal slate, further supported by power rankings.
  5. Washington Commanders – Despite having eight standalone games, their remaining schedule is among the toughest due to strong opponents, though they benefit from an easier early season.
  6. Minnesota Vikings – When using Week 5 NFL power rankings instead of win-loss records, the Vikings have the most difficult remaining schedule, with an average opponent power ranking close to the leagueโ€™s best teams.
  7. New York Giants – Face the toughest overall schedule in 2025, with a particularly brutal remaining slate including six home games against 2024 playoff teams (Eagles, Commanders, Packers, Vikings, Chiefs, Chargers).
  8. Chicago Bears – Tied with the Lions for the second-toughest overall schedule (.571 opponent win percentage), with a challenging remaining schedule due to matchups against strong NFC North and AFC West teams.
  9. Dallas Cowboys – From Week 12 onward, they face the second-toughest schedule, with opponents like the 14-3 Eagles, 15-2 Chiefs, 15-2 Lions, and 14-3 Vikings. Their overall SOS is tied for fifth-hardest (.557).
  10. Green Bay Packers – Tied with Cowboys and Vikings for fifth-hardest overall SOS (.557), with tough remaining games against NFC North rivals and AFC West teams.
  11. Kansas City Chiefs – Tied for 11th in overall SOS (.522), with a challenging remaining schedule including primetime games against strong teams like the Giants, Jaguars, Lions, and Commanders.
  12. Los Angeles Chargers – Also tied for 11th in overall SOS (.522), with a tough remaining schedule featuring matchups against playoff-caliber teams from the AFC West and NFC North.
  13. Cleveland Browns – Second-toughest overall schedule based on projected win totals, with a difficult remaining slate due to AFC North rivalries and cross-conference games.
  14. Las Vegas Raiders – Fourth-toughest overall schedule (.540), with a challenging remaining schedule due to matchups against strong AFC West and NFC North teams.
  15. Philadelphia Eagles – Face 11 games against 2024 playoff teams, tied with the Lions for the most in NFL history, with tough road games against the Packers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Chargers, and Bills.
  16. Minnesota Vikings (repeated for emphasis) – Their remaining schedule is notably tough when factoring in power rankings, with opponents averaging close to the top of the league.
  17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tied for 18th in overall SOS (.481), with a moderately challenging remaining schedule including games against playoff teams like the Texans.
  18. Miami Dolphins – Tied for 21st in overall SOS (.474), with a relatively balanced remaining schedule but struggles against winning teams could make it tougher.
  19. Seattle Seahawks – Also tied for 21st in overall SOS (.474), with a manageable but competitive remaining schedule against NFC West and AFC South teams.
  20. Jacksonville Jaguars – Tied for 23rd in overall SOS (.467), with a moderately easier remaining schedule but still facing strong AFC South and NFC North opponents.
  21. Carolina Panthers – Tied for 27th in overall SOS (.457), with a relatively easier remaining schedule compared to top teams, aided by NFC South matchups.
  22. Pittsburgh Steelers – Face a tough mid-season slate with games against the Vikings, Packers, Bears, and Lions, but their overall SOS is not explicitly ranked in the top tier.
  23. Baltimore Ravens – No specific remaining SOS ranking, but their AFC North schedule and matchups against strong teams like the Steelers and Chiefs suggest a challenging slate.
  24. Cincinnati Bengals – AFC North rivalries make their remaining schedule tough, though not explicitly ranked in the top tier.
  25. Denver Broncos – Face playoff-caliber teams like the Chargers and Vikings, contributing to a moderately difficult remaining schedule.
  26. New York Jets – No specific remaining SOS ranking, but their schedule includes tough games against the Steelers and Vikings, suggesting moderate difficulty.
  27. Indianapolis Colts – Benefit from a weaker AFC South, but specific remaining SOS data is unavailable; likely in the lower-middle tier.
  28. Tennessee Titans – Also benefit from a weaker AFC South, with a likely easier remaining schedule compared to top teams.
  29. Atlanta Falcons – Benefit from the easiest schedule for running backs, which could ease their remaining slate, though overall SOS is not explicitly ranked.
  30. New Orleans Saints – Tied for the easiest overall SOS (.425), with only four games against 2024 playoff teams, making their remaining schedule one of the least challenging.
  31. New England Patriots – Third-easiest overall SOS, with a last-place schedule and fewer games against strong opponents, making their remaining slate relatively easy.
  32. Buffalo Bills – Easiest remaining schedule based on cumulative opponent win percentage (.467), further aided by the ninth-easiest overall SOS among Super Bowl contenders.

Notes on Methodology:

  • Primary Metric: The rankings for remaining SOS are primarily based on the cumulative 2025 win percentage of opponents left on each teamโ€™s schedule as of Week 5, as reported by EDSFootball.
  • Alternative Metric: When using Week 5 NFL power rankings, the Vikings stand out with the toughest remaining schedule due to their opponentsโ€™ average power ranking being closest to the leagueโ€™s best teams.
  • Vegas Win Totals: Some sources, like Sharp Football Analysis, argue that using projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers provides a more accurate SOS than prior-year records, as it accounts for roster changes, injuries, and coaching shifts. This supports the rankings for teams like the Giants (hardest) and 49ers (easiest).
  • Historical Context: Teams with the easiest schedules are more likely to finish with winning records, while those with the toughest schedules often struggle to make the playoffs. For example, in 2024, only 2 of the 10 teams with the toughest schedules made the playoffs, while 6 of the 10 with the easiest did.

Additional Insights:

  • The San Francisco 49ers benefit from the easiest overall schedule (.415), with only four games against 2024 playoff teams, and their remaining schedule remains favorable due to weaker NFC West, AFC South, and NFC South opponents.
  • The New York Giants face the toughest overall schedule (.574), with their remaining games including a gauntlet of playoff teams, making their path to a winning record difficult.
  • The Buffalo Bills have a significant advantage with the easiest remaining schedule and a history of first-place teams with easier schedules averaging 10.25 wins since 2021.
  • Teams like the Eagles and Lions face historically tough schedules, with 11 games each against 2024 playoff teams, tying an NFL record.
KevDiego
KevDiego(@kevdiego)
Reply to  KevDiego
4 months ago

I also asked Grok to predict the remainder of the Chargers schedule – a few inaccuracies in here, but the expectations are close to what I expect:

Analysis of the LA Chargers’ Remaining Schedule
The Los Angeles Chargers enter Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season with a 3-1 record (1st in the AFC West), following a strong start with wins over the Kansas City Chiefs (Week 1 in Brazil), Denver Broncos (Week 3), and Las Vegas Raiders (Week 2), but a surprising 21-18 road loss to the New York Giants (Week 4). Their Week 5 game against the Washington Commanders was a tight victory, extending their undefeated streak against division foes. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the team has shown grit in close games, ranking highly in red-zone efficiency and turnover margin (+5, tied for 3rd in the NFL). However, quarterback Justin Herbert has been sacked 47 times already (2nd-most in the league), highlighting ongoing offensive line vulnerabilitiesโ€”exacerbated by left tackle Joe Alt’s recent ankle injury, though he’s expected to miss minimal time.
The Chargers have 12 games remaining, including a Week 12 byeโ€”their first since 2019. Their full schedule was released in May 2025, featuring five prime-time games and a mix of AFC West rivalries, NFC North crossovers, and AFC South matchups. Overall, this is a moderately tough remaining slate, with an estimated opponent win percentage around .522 (tied for 11th-hardest in the NFL per preseason projections). Key factors:

  • Strengths: 6 home games at SoFi Stadium (where they’ve been 2-0 so far), and favorable late-season matchups against rebuilding teams like the Titans and Jaguars.
  • Challenges: 6 games against 2024 playoff teams (e.g., Eagles, Vikings, Chiefs), a brutal mid-season stretch (Weeks 7-11: four potential top-10 opponents), and two road tilts in cold-weather stadiums (Bengals, Packers).
  • Divisional edge: Already 3-0 in the AFC West, with the Broncos (1-3), Raiders (1-3), and Chiefs (2-2) trailing. Sweeping the division is realistic, but Kansas City looms large twice more.

Schedule Strengths/Weaknesses:

  • Easiest stretch: Weeks 13-17 (4-1 projected wins) against bottom-10 teams, ideal for clinching.
  • Hardest stretch: Weeks 7-11 (2-3 projected), with four top-10 opponentsโ€”could decide playoff seeding.
  • Home/Road Split: 6-6 balance, but road games cluster late (3 of last 5), testing depth in December.
  • Prime-Time Games: At least 3 remaining (Eagles, Lions, Vikings?), where Harbaugh’s teams historically thrive (2-1 in 2025 so far).

Predicted Record
Based on current trends, power rankings, and win probabilities (derived from ESPN FPI, BetMGM models, and historical Harbaugh close-game successโ€”LAC is 3-1 in one-score games), I project the Chargers to finish 11-6 overall (8-4 remaining). This assumes:

  • Herbert stays healthy (he’s at 65.9% completion, 23 TDs/3 INTs pace).
  • Defense holds (No. 1 in points allowed at 17.6/game).
  • No major O-line collapses (key for run game, led by emerging RB Gus Edwards).

Game-by-Game Prediction:

  • Wins: Browns, Bears, Vikings, Bengals, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders, Broncos (8 wins).
  • Losses: Eagles, Chiefs, Lions (3 losses).
  • Upside: 12-5 if they steal one from Philly/Detroit.
  • Downside: 10-7 if O-line falters in the gauntlet.

This would mark Harbaugh’s second straight winning season, building on their 2024 wild-card appearance.

Playoff Chances
The Chargers’ playoff odds are extremely high at 89% (implied from FanDuel’s -800 line, up from -650 preseason). Here’s why:

  • Division Odds: -160 favorites to win AFC West (60% implied probability). Their 3-0 divisional start gives a 2-game lead; a 5-1 divisional finish clinches it. Chiefs (projected 10-7) are the main threat, but LAC holds the tiebreaker.
  • Wild Card Path: Even without the division, they’re a lock as the No. 5-7 seed. AFC contenders like Bills (4-1), Ravens (projected 11-6), and Texans (3-2) are ahead, but LAC’s strength-of-victory edge (wins over KC/DEN/LV) positions them well. Only 2-3 AFC teams (e.g., Broncos, Raiders) are truly out.
  • Advanced Metrics: ESPN FPI gives them a 75% division win chance and 92% playoff probability; NFL.com ranks them No. 6 overall (up from preseason No. 8).
  • Risks: Injury to Herbert (20% chance of missing time per models) or a 1-4 gauntlet slump drops odds to 70%. But historical trends favor themโ€”teams with 3-1 starts and top-5 defenses make playoffs 85% of the time since 2018.

In summary, the Chargers are poised for a deep playoff run, potentially as the AFC’s No. 3 seed. Their balanced attack and Harbaugh’s coaching give them a puncher’s chance at the Super Bowl (+1400 odds, 6.7% implied).

KevDiego
KevDiego(@kevdiego)
Reply to  Tau837
4 months ago

If Grok said it, it must be true. Time to go make a bet…

Kyle DeDiminicantanio
Admin
Reply to  KevDiego
4 months ago

Don’t place a bet on “emerging RB Gus Edwards” ๐Ÿ˜‰

66_Jimbo
66_Jimbo(@66_jimbo)
Reply to  Tau837
4 months ago

And KC looms large twice more…..

KevDiego
KevDiego(@kevdiego)
Reply to  Tau837
4 months ago

Completely agree. I do think 11 wins is the most likely outcome.

BoltUpDK
BoltUpDK(@bolt_dk)
4 months ago

Very interesting take. Would be great to revisit this throughout the season.

How does the remaining schedule look like with this method?

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