Coming off the back of conceding 64 points over the last two weeks , it appears that the hype around Jesse Minter’s defense has started to fade away. The tape shows a different story, Minter has called good games and it has been more of a lack of talent and depth in certain positions that has meant his unit have lost fine margin battles against two of the best offenses in the league.

By no means has it been all on the players and entering into a game against the Atlanta Falcons, Minter has a chance to show how he can overcome what seems like a bad matchup. At a high level, a betting man would look at the form of the both teams and question why the spread is set at a single point in favor of the Bolts. Atlanta just got smacked 38-6 by the Denver Broncos, the same team that the Chargers handed a 23-16 loss to a few weeks earlier. Both affairs were not close contests from the first snap to the last and on paper, it seems like a mistake from the bookmakers to have the line at a virtual coin flip.

That is not how the NFL works though, it is a week-by-week league where any team can win on any given Sunday. Just look at the pathetic 2-9 Las Vegas Raiders taking the 10-1 Kansas City Chiefs all the way to the last play before Patrick Mahomes’ deal with the devil kicked in again to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

So, why is the line in this week’s game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium so narrow especially given that the Falcons have a bottom five defense? The answer is that the failings of the Chargers’ defense over the past two weeks are exactly where the Falcons can hurt you. Zac Robinson, Atlanta’s offensive coordinator, has a system that wants to do one thing: stretch you out across to defend the whole field. This applies to both how they run the ball and how they pass the ball.

Ground Game

On the ground they run a heavy dose of zone concepts as they want to get their offensive line blocking in one direction which is something the Chargers have not dealt with well over the past two games.

The Chargers’ front has earned decent penetration on the front side of these looks with Poona Ford and Teair Tart finding ways to slice through the angled blocks but the backside is where the problems start as Otito Ogbonnia, Scott Matlock and Justin Eboigbe have struggled with how to pursue the runners whilst still maintaining their gap integrity. On this example against the Ravens on Monday night Matlock failed to read the line shift and it cost him the chance to penetrate the backfield or cut off the backside lane so Henry couldn’t press inside.

This play illustrates why linebackers matter despite what the media groupthink has been trying to pedal in recent years. Derwin forces the fullback block which means that Henley has to hit the outside shoulder of the tight end as he has a backside fill coming his way in Niemann. Instead he tries to shoot the gap which would have been fine if the tight end didn’t have a free release due to Derwin forcing the issue from a wide alignment. Which player was wrong here I can’t say as I don’t know the exact run fit principles but needless to say if the front is not in cohesion, this stuff will happen again.

Injuries have forced Jesse Minter into playing Troy Dye and Nick Niemann in base looks as Denzel Perryman is out again to add to Junior Colson being on IR and even the only remaining starter, Daiyan Henley, is carrying an injury which could limit his snaps. Together these absences and limitations have put the Bolts in spots they don’t want to be in against a Falcons’ interior line group which has become the lifeblood of their offense.

“The Falcons were on a bye this week, but Chris Lindstrom retained his lead atop the run-blocking grades for guards. His 93.4 is made up of 90.0-plus grades in zone and man blocking.” – PFF

Chris Lindstrom, their All-pro right guard, is playing at an elite level but the two lesser known names of Drew Dalman and Matthew Bergeron have flashed as young players to watch in the future as they grow into their scheme. All of this meshes will with who they have in the backfield with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier being put in a position to expose the creases their line create for them in very different ways. In the example below you can see Bijan path to the second level by some great reach block from the center and a solid climb from the left guard. To give a back that talented , that much space is a killer.

After this play the Broncos contained Robinson in check for 13 carries and only 44 yards, they adjusted quickly to have their outside linebackers play hard off the edge and they had Zach Allen causing chaos on the backside every single play. Both these moves allowed their off ball front players like Justin Strnad and Cody Barton to fire through gaps early. Jesse Minter’s defense is likely not going to be able to do the same thing as the linebackers haven’t shown they can do this and if they play overly aggressive, the other part of the Falcons’ attack will come into effect.

Pass attack

Atlanta’s running concepts are to stretch you out sideline to sideline and this pairs well with how they want to pass the ball. The Falcons lead the league in 11 personnel usage with 88.8% which is effective enough with Kirk Cousins’ ability to dissect zone coverages in a hurry. I have been surprised with their lack of play action given Kirk’s vast experience on these concepts however when you turn on the tape you can see where Zac Robinson has been going instead.

The Falcons have not utilized play action very often when compared to other units across the league. According to TruMedia, Atlanta ranks last in the league with play-action passes amounting to 8% of its total plays. – From the Falcons’ website

He has utilized quick passes to his running backs at a high rate, they motion the back across the formation as if they’re going to run but as the ball is never faked to them so it doesn’t count as a play action snap. This gives the offense an advantage because the line still has to respect the back and it gives the back a speedy release into the flats which works very effectively against teams that play two high shells because the defense has to defend all 53 yards across the field.

Cousins’ time to throw is very quick so pressure won’t solve these problems either, it will be about who is left in the shallow spaces to make plays when left with taking down the Falcons’ talented offensive weapons.

Injuries will mean that Minter’s defense may struggle to fill these concepts as Cam Hart, who is brilliant at open field tackles, is out again and Tarheeb Still, for all his positives, has not been a consistent tackler when out in space. Ja’sir Taylor is even weaker in contact situations so Minter should do whatever it takes to avoid him being left with the running backs. Another factor to consider is that Alohi Gillman will not be on the field. He not only directs traffic in the secondary but he also reads shallow passes earlier than everyone else, his absence will be felt just as much as Perryman’s.

Minter will therefore have to find a way to get his defense to read these looks in an efficient and accurate manner because with three key players missing in the areas of the field, Bijan and the underrated Allgeier can cause some problems with the ball in their hands.

The last of my observations is that the Chargers’ linebacker grouping of Daiyan, Dye and Derwin showed their lack of time together. The play above is 2-man and traditionally linebackers are taught not to chase crossing routes over the midfield line as they are protecting the hashes. This means that as Mark Andrews crosses over Henley’s face, Daiyan is meant to communicate that with a call like “in” but both Troy and James had already stepped upfield to deal with the scrambling threat from Lamar. This means that neither of them followed the big tight end and it led to a big play at a key moment of the game. I really like how Derwin is shaping up as the Will linebacker in Nickel and Dime looks but he needs to be more in tune with the details of linebacker play like this as this mistake is on him.

Overall whilst this Falcons’ offense is not on the levels of the Bengals or Ravens that have both surpassed 30 points on Minter’s unit but they do provide matchup problems for the Bolts this week. I’m really hoping to see some adjustments and coverage switchups to protect the flats in the pass game and I expect to see some alignment alternatives from the front to counteract the threat of a backside cut.