StormCloud’s been waitin’ all day for Sunday Night, and here it is.
We are less than an hour away from the second time Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert have faced off against each other. Anytime the quarterbacks of the 2020 class face each other it’s bound to be a high-drama affair, as many debates have raged on as to how these quarterbacks would be ranked if they were to be re-drafted today.
So far, Burrow has lost to the Chargers twice, the first loss coming in his first game in the NFL against the Chargers’ Tyrod Taylor. Justin Herbert was his opponent in the next showdown, and it was a Herbie masterpiece as he led the Chargers to an impressive 41-22 victory in Paul Brown Stadium.
The Chargers are a much different team this year, with a much different offensive and defensive mentality. Rather than trying to hang 40+ on the Bengals, the Chargers would be ecstatic to score more than 24, and keep their opponent once again to a total of less than 20 points. The defense has been suffocating offenses all season, but Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are sure to give them their biggest test of the year.
Let’s get to the inactives:
DJ Chark is alarmingly on the inactives list again after only taking on snap against the TItans. Vidal will be sidelined again – which is less concerning than when this news broke last week, but still a disappointment as he brings such an explosive element to the running back room. Hayden Hurst is out again, but the biggest disappoint is the absence of Khalil Mack. However, this staff prepared for such an event by bringing in veteran depth in the offseason; this is why a piece like Bud Dupree is so important to this roster.
The Bengals offensive line is struggling at the Tackle position, so this is the week for Joey Bosa, Tuli Tuipulotu, and Dupree to feast. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are on a two-wave wavelength with each other as plays go on and find gaps in zone defenses like no other pair in the league, so the quicker the pass rush can get home the better chance the Bolts have.
Get the chatter going, StormCloud. Let’s have a helluva game, and a time in the comments below!
I didn’t really intend my initial comment about James to take me into multiple posts criticizing his play, so I’m going to stop. I stand by my take that his play to date this season is not close to the value of his contract. I hope he can turn it around and elevate his play to his 2018, 2019, or at least 2022 levels for the rest of the season and prove me wrong.
I agree generally with
Tau837 that Derwin’s on-field play, especially earlier this season, has not been to the level of his contract. The myriad penalties and certain coverage snaps have frustrated me.
GBGH, Kyle and 
Tui have both expressed additional thoughts that closely resemble my own:
He’s playing a healthy dose of snaps at Big Nickel and Dime LB, so the comp to Molden & Gilman is not apples-for-apples.
The intangibles seem to be there (or, at least, the coaches and players claim that it is) and it could be the case that this Defense is only playing as well as it is because of Derwin’s presence (both as a motivational leader and because of the impact he’s had on opposition game planning). But since those things aren’t really measurable, I agree with Tau that it would be great if the on-field play matched the putative intangibles.
I don’t think the team will trade or cut him, so this conversation is academic. As long as Harbaugh is coach, I predict that Derwin will remain with the team as a key pillar in his championship vision.
Caveat: Because I’ve had my hands full over the past fortnight, I didn’t get an opportunity to watch the All-22 of the Browns nor Titans games.
My impression of Derwin’s on-field play could be weighted too heavily in favour of the earlier games in the season where he wasn’t playing very well IMO.
Tomorrow I’ll watch the All-22 of the Bengals game.
On the “live watch” with Andy, I thought Derwin was lively although, like Tau, the penalty and a couple of coverage snaps were frustrating. I will note though that it is very hard to recognise coverage snaps where Derwin is in position and the play results in no target. Gesicki was invisible last night and Derwin played 49 snaps in the Slot. It’s possible that he was excelling in coverage and we just didn’t notice it.
Good conversation guys!
Whoops, trying again to upload 🙂
Very notably, he lost Chase in coverage early 1Q and allowed a 32 yard catch and run. He later failed to react quickly enough to prevent Iosivas from a 27 yard completion into DJ’s zone coverage area.
Altogether, PFF tracked him with allowing 6 completions in 8 targets into his coverage for 3 first downs and a 109 NFL passer rating. In fairness, I will say that at least 2 of the completions were just stop routes in front of DJ’s coverage area, and I don’t think there was anything he could have done unless he read it and tried to jump the route, which would be a risky move.
Interestingly enough, this was his 3rd highest PFF coverage game grade of the season at 72.2, and it was his second highest overall game grade of the season at 72.8.
However, what is missing quite noticably is the superstar plays. Strip sacks, forced fumbles, INTs. Things that make you go ‘Wow’. That’s how he’s being paid, and he’s not nearly at that level right now.
@alisterlloyd
I’ve only seen the first half of All-22 and w/out getting into any details or plays here, James played very well. But the 2nd half was when the defense struggled but still it won’t be enough for me to devalue James’ contribution to a vastly improved defense.
If we’re gonna pick on a highly paid player not earning his value, how about one who is pretty consistently unavailable? Bosa seems to get a pass while Derwin goes under the microscope?
Availability is the first ability. And I’m not pointing fingers, just pointing out that this exercise could easily include more than Derwin. Bosa has absolutely had his share of bone headed plays.
We’ll see. We thought that last year too.
I would perhaps counter that even if the scheme isn’t relying on Derwin to make special plays, what makes a special player “special” is the fact that they make special plays when they present themselves. Derwin isn’t doing that right now (eg, missed sack of Burrow with game on the line). So whether the scheme asks it of him or not, I would like to see more special plays from a player being paid so handsomely.
Irrespective, things are working very well at the moment. #1 Scoring Defense still after Wk 11, so if it ain’t broke…!
Sorry to miss seeing this one. I’m dealing with covid and pneumonia, just didn’t have the energy to stay up. Happy to see this final score today.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5929038/2024/11/18/chargers-win-bengals-jim-harbaugh-believe/
Hi GBGH! Sounds like a team in the first year of a massive culture shift and rebuild. I’m okay with this because they won against a team that is better than their recent competition.
Totally agree although I have to admit my expectations for this season are rising. What I saw of them running the ball against a good run defense in Tenn. and across the board in the first half of the Bengals games makes me think they can/should win two playoff games depending on opponents. I think they can beat everyone (have to play nearly perfect against Buffalo and KC in away playoff games) but only if they are running on all cylinders. Must be able to run the ball effectively, and I include Herbert in that statement. They could not run up 21 in the second half against a motivated but mediocre run defense on Sunday. If they solve that issue (which is hard given the quality of the IOL) I am very bullish on their chances. The red zone defense through 2-1/2 quarters against a top flight offense was stellar against Cincy. But if you keep giving the other guys the ball back with multiple back to back 3 and outs the defense will wear down. That is what happened on Sunday. You don’t win games often with 25 minutes TOP against top flight offenses. Not a winning formula for the playoffs.
The Chargers are a very good team with a few possibly fatal flaws that may get them but with improvement and scheme adjustment I think they can overcome those flaws this year for a deep playoff run. This is what Harbaugh does.
Hopefully they can address those flaws in the next draft and make us a SB contender Next Year. For now, we are in the best zone for any fan base: Our team is far exceeding expectations – it is the happiest place to be as a fan.
Get well Buck. I’ve had pneumonia and the energy depletion is unreal. I hope you are getting somewhere help on the farm.
What a thrilling finish to the game. Even in the two last plays, I was still holding my breath, praying for no PI calls. I thought 2 of the PI calls on Fulton were pretty iffy, but at least the refs didn’t blow the game up for either side. Good play by both teams, either couldda won.
Wow! Evan McPherson must be feeling some heat!
Random thoughts on the game:
Not having Mack was big. If he was healthy, more of the pressure gets home for sacks or forcing incompletions… especially since the rotation would hvae been fresher. I feel like him healthy takes a TD off the board for the Bengals, and this game would never have been in doubt.
That said, for all the bashing Bosa gets from Chargers fans, they really needed him in this game, and he played well.
Losing Hart mattered a lot. It goes to show that he is probably a starting outside corner going forward (when healthy). If the Chargers re-sign Fulton in the offseason, and with Leonard, Still, Taylor all still under contract, I think CB is an overrated need for the Chargers entering the draft. Too many other position groups are more important, most notably Edge, C, TE.
Minter has been really great this season. But the defensive call on that first Chase TD was awful. Collinsworth made it a point earlier in the broadcast to show that the Chargers had two defenders covering Chase constantly, which was why he wasn’t making a big impact early. Then they left him in single coverage on the goal line… TD. That sparked the entire comeback for the Bengals… hold them to another FG there and this game likely never would have been particularly close.
Derwin is playing himself off the roster at the first reasonable opportunity cap-wise. He makes too many stupid plays, and, even when he doesn’t do that, he isn’t delivering All Pro caliber play, which is what his contract is paying him for. I was not in favor of his extension at the time, and it has turned out even worse than I thought it would.
I thought the first half challenge by Harbaugh was dumb. If it was successful, the Bengals would have been 3rd and 5 at the Bengals 40 vs. the outcome of the play being 1st and 10 at the Bengals 48. IMO that isn’t enough of a difference in game situation / win probability to risk wasting a timeout. I am disappointed that he is seemingly not improving at game management… his staff seems great at most everything else.
Random reactions:
Re: Mack; 100% agree. I hope he’s back to full-go vs Lamar.
Re: Bosa; 100% agree. Dude had a good game. He crashed the line thoroughly and often. Also, no ridiculous penalties.
Re: Hart/Fulton and the CB room; 100% agree. Even without Zont, this is a quality group. Could they use one more superstar? Of course. Could Hart and/or Still be that superstar? Yup.
Re: Harbaugh’s challenge on the third play of the game; 100% agree. Stakes were too low at that point to give up a challenge and a TO. Accept the first down and play D.
Re: Derwin; 65% agree. He’s not a top three safety in the league as his contract suggests. On the other hand, he’s the best safety the team has, and a superb box safety. If the team were left with only Molden and Alohi—both of whom are playing really well—the secondary would be much worse. You can make the case that he’s overpaid, league-wide, for production. However the team would be far worse without him. In this case the team is overpaying him, but where are the options to replace his contributions at a lesser price? I suppose we’ll find out in the off-season, but for now, they’re paying an elite price for a very good player. Sometimes that happens.
He is also inconsistent. Entering the game he had 1 overall PFF defense game grade in the 80s, 1 in the 70s, 2 in the 60s, 2 in the 50s, and 2 in the 40s. And he had missed 1 game due to suspension.
Haven’t seen his grade yet for yesterday, but I’m not expecting it to be good.
As for replacing his production, just consider what kind of free agent the team could sign for $19M+ per year. What level C, G, WR, TE, Edge, IDL, CB? Would increased production in one of those position groups be enough to offset lost production from James? I think that is likely.
@tau837
I don’t know how effective PFF’s grades are for safeties to be honest. As of this morning, Molden is ranked at 5th and Alohi is 38rd and Derwin is 38.
I dont disagree with your assessment that from a raw production standpoint, 19M on it’s own could have shared up the center position and guard in one swoop. But I don’t think Derwin is going anywhere. The only player Harbaugh talks about more is Justin Herbert. I know there’s a lot of coach speak in there too, but he’s brought up Derwin as one of his favorite players of all time to coach so many times, often unprompted, that I can’t see how decided to pull the ripcord on his contract.
It’s probably more likely that we see him transition more and more into a box safety/linebacker – even more than he is now. Until his play actually becomes a liability, I dont think Harbaugh separates from him unless they can’t get an extension down in 2026 that lowers his hit a little. They could save 16.7 with a post-June cut this offseason, but I just can’t see Harbaugh doing it. Perhaps in 2026 they can find a trade partner if extension talks stall from DJ overvaluating himself.
Agree on the Mack front for sure. Bosa is a weird one – he has some solid plays yesterday and it was probably his top performance in some time, but it’s hard to watch at times. On some drives he just looks gassed and ineffective. Mack is an absolute freak for playing at the level he does throughout the course of the game, but it really seems like this unit needs at four EDGES playing in rotation to get the most of them.
Hart is quickly becoming one of my favorite players, partially because I was high on him in the predraft process (but if I’m self-scouting, he’s the first ND player I “hit” on since meeting me wife, with plenty of misses… looking at you, Mayer). He reminds me of a poor-man’s Ramsey, he doesn’t shy away from big matchups at all, and plays with a physicality that makes me a huge “plus” in the run game. Ironically, he’s the kind of cornerback I believe Staley needed to help his defense make sense, instead of small tweeners that get lost in the wash.
Kyle,
On Derwin, you have to remember that he is a player to be accounted for by the offense. I am sure there are plays where he is at the line that the offense makes a protection call or a check to account for him, even if he drops out. That affects the plays without even being necessarily involved. Like having Rod Woodson or Champ Bailey at one CB. They essentially took away half the field without having to do anything. Plus he is one of the best overall athletes on the field. He can play slot, big nickel or deep safety. There is nobody else on the defense who comes close to that level of flexibility. You essentially have a back 7 position able to be played by one player. Minter’s defense seems more predicated on good outside CB, but maybe that is a factor of Derwin locking down the middle of the field. I would still like to see him blitz more and ball hawk/ freelance the middle of the field more, since I have always viewed his skill set similar to Polamalu’s. Actually if you watched last night, most of his reps were manning up the TE. Even when the coverage dropped into zone, DJ was taking the TE or slot off the line. His versatility doing the dirty work can be more valuable to the defense than actual stat inducing plays. Especially with rookie CB’s.
Last night’s game made it more evident that Edge is a big draft need next year. Without Mack, the rotation was gassed and Bosa and Dupree aren’t at their peak playing 75% of the snaps. Take into account that Bosa is gutting it out less than 100% and his effort is even more impressive. He was a disruption for a ton of plays. Can you imaging what the pass rush would have looked like w/out him AND Mack? That could be a real possibility next season. Tuli and Dupree are not scaring and offenses alone. I will say that everything Bosa has said and done seems like he is really about winning over money at this stage of his career, so maybe he takes a 2 year team friendly deal to keep riding the Harbaugh train and Mack follows? Either way if the BPA is an Edge it must strongly be considered.
Cam Hart. You know I was a huge fan pre draft also, so I am ecstatic at the way he is playing. IMO he is a more physical and better tackling, but not as fast, Tariq Woolen. Guy knows how to use his length on the perimeter. Hoping he clears protocol for next week. Hopefully the extra day rest helps.
He was on a trajectory like that after 2019, and to a lesser degree maybe even after 2022. But he has been a different and considerably worse player in 2023 and 2024.
Also, Derwin doesn’t “lock down” any part of the field any more. Coverage is his weakest skill set.
I don’t know if it is injuries, age/money/complacency, or somehow an effect of spending 3 seasons under Staley, but he really does not seem like the same player.
Kerby Joseph, DET
Brian Branch, DET
Kyle Hamilton, BAL
Xavier McKinney, GB
Jabril Peppers, NE
Brandon Jones, DEN
Kevin Byard, CHI
Evan Williams, GB
Reed Blankenship, PHI
Elijah Molden, LAC
I don’t know a lot about all of these players, but this passes the eye test for me.
Safety is a position that is easier to measure than some others, like IDL, since safeties have clear metrics in tackling, pass rush, and coverage, and their assignments are not too difficult to determine from the film.
Molden (among 88 safeties with at least 200 defensive snaps):
#10 overall – I’ll note here that in addition to the other stuff in this list, he has 0 penalties
#10 coverage – makes perfect sense, since he has 3 interceptions and another PBU in 14 targets, allowing no TDs and a NFL passer rating into his coverage of 39.3
Pass rush grade is N/A, since he has just 1 pass rush snap
#20 run defense – in 135 run defense snaps, he has 8 tackles, 9 assists, 5 stops, and just 1 missed tackle, and his average depth of tackle is 5.4 yards, which is very good for a guy who plays primarily FS
#19 tackling – in 469 defensive snaps overall, he has 25 tackles, 16 assists, and 8 stops, with 4 missed tackles; 4 missed tackles might not seem great, but his missed tackle percentage is tied for #23 (23rd lowest) out of 88 qualifying safeties
James (grades for yesterday now included):
#29 overall – I’ll note here that in addition to the other stuff in this list, he has 4 penalties
#32T coverage – seems generous, given he has allowed 2 TDs, has 0 interceptions and 2 PBUs, and has allowed a NFL passer rating into his coverage of 121.1
#13 pass rush – in 42 pass rush snaps, he has 8 pressures, including 2 sacks, and 3 batted passes
#13 run defense – in 184 run defense snaps, he has 21 tackles, 5 assists, 7 stops, and just 2 missed tackles, and his average depth of tackle is 6.0 yards
#21 tackling – in 562 defensive snaps overall, he has 46 tackles, 10 assists, and 17 stops, with 6 missed tackles; his missed tackle percentage is tied #28 (28th lowest) out of 88 qualifying safeties
His grades are generally good except for coverage, but 60% of his snaps are coverage snaps. That plus the penalties gets him to #29 .
Given the data, those relative grades seem reasonable IMO.
James being the #29 safety isn’t a terrible thing… there are 88 who have played 200+ snaps on the season, so he is in the top half… around the 67th percentile.
The problem is, the Chargers are paying for Kyle Hamilton or Brian Branch, but they are getting Josh Metellus or Taylor Rapp… if you said “who?”, that is exactly the point.
I also wonder about Molden in pass pro and whether PFF accounts for some of the big misses he has as you could always just attribute the misses to the CB. Both long passes given up to Ridley last week and Higgins this week seemed to be on him at least in part as well as the miss to Chase that would have been six if Burrow had hit him. He can get sucked into stopping the run or crossers as the WR looking for help is left alone against a top end WR.
Not saying you are wrong about him technically, especially in light of his contract. I really don’t have the ability to judge other than with my eyes but I see a tone setter who closes with speed especially against the run and taking down receivers after a catch made by a guy someone else is covering. He cleans a lot of things up in my view. You need a few guys like him on your team IMO. The rule changes haven’t helped him either, but when you add Hart, Perryman and Henley with him you are starting to get some physciallity behind the line of scrimmage that this team (except for him) has lacked. For them to win in the playoffs, this defense needs to play with that physicallity. So if I am a coach I want him on my team and out there leading and thumping guys!!! I think that is why Harbaugh loves him as a player.
@tau837
Mack would have made a difference in the score?
Mack could have made a difference or not in scores by the Bengals, but I believe the real difference was Herbert’s fumble turnover which ended a drive the offense was moving the ball well down the field to add on more points.
CB is an overrated need entering the draft?
I wouldn’t say “overrated” with the ongoing needs at the CB positions. Hart has turned into a decent starting outside corner and he should get better, what a find that was with him, same with Tarheeb, but there is still a need for a another CB1 to man the other outside corner. Samuel Jr won’t be brought back. Fulton has been an inconsistent player before he became a Charger. I’m not sure it would be the right choice to resign him into a big contract while drafting a CB1 could be the better route to building a strong, lasting, young CB unit. Tarheeb could be the rightful starting slot corner. Taylor isn’t the answer at the slot, I don’t believe. The one play Higgins scored on, Taylor set up to double him with Molden but he let Higgins into a free release between them into a easy TD by him, one of many mistakes by him. A good defense needs four starting caliber corners; you can’t have enough good corners at this level.
Minter’s defensive call on the first Chase TD was awful?
That particular defensive play, Gilman was supposed to stay back to cover and cut the throwing lane once he sees the RB #30 lining him up at the same the gap, a bad read by him. I believe he had the green light if the tailback lines up against either James or Henley instead. All season long, Minter hadn’t called an all-out blitz where a LB and two safeties blitz. I don’t believe it was the call here either. I can’t fault Minter for calling an aggressive play to blitz since they couldn’t stop Burrow when the pressure didn’t get to him. I just don’t think it was an all-out blitz in that situation to leave Higgins on one-on-one with Hart at the goal line.
Derwin James not playing up to expectations and contract?
Not sure I agree with this, and I’m not sure what “stupid plays” you’re referring to either by James in this game. I’ll get to look at all-22 film of the game when it’s available Tuesday to see what plays James might have missed. I haven’t really seen too many bad plays from James yet. He is playing within the defensive scheme and affecting a lot of plays even by not making the actual plays at the ball.
James has been playing mostly as a dimeback/hybrid LB in the box or as in big nickel. Not your typical safety roles while Molten and Gilman are both on the field playing the typical safety roles. A lot of what he does on the field does not show up in PFF grades. No coaches are paying attention to PFF grades since they are not complete reflections of a player’s performance and how a player impacts a game by play assistance, play communication such as formation alignments, leadership, etc. James is a big reason for making Minter’s defensive front mechanics work to be able to defend the run with the light box while in 2 high shells w/ James either at big nickel or at dimeback. James’ intangibles as a leader is a big plus for this defense. Harbaugh and Minter aren’t making up James worth to the team.
This defense is playing so well at a top defense, something I could have not foreseen to be able to flip from the bottom to the top from just a season ago with about the same key players on the roster.
CB as draft need: I pointed out that there are other positions of greater need, notably Edge, C, TE. (Edge assumes Bosa and/or Mack are gone, or at least cannot be counted on as top 2 Edge players any more.) I could see a later round CB draft pick for sure.
Minter call: If Minter didn’t call the play the way the players executed it, then I agree no blame for him. But it would seem odd to me if that was the case, since it has seemed like the players have generally executed his scheme and calls well.
James: When I wrote that, I was thinking about his personal foul penalty, his 4th of the season, which is tied for the league lead among safeties. How many times is he going to get personal fouls? Why is he unable to adjust his style to avoid it? It’s very frustrating.
Aside from that, his coverage has not been good this season, as I posted, and that suggests he is not the complete package that he used to be and is paid to be.
I appreciate that he might provide some great intangibles that are not easily measurable… but he is getting paid to be a safety of the caliber of Kyle Hamilton or Brian Branch, and you can see their worth on the field without resorting to referencing intangibles not easily measured.
@tau837
Tau. I’m not disagreeing about James’ worth as a top safety with his contract. However, I’m pleased with how he performs in this defense and how his leadership alone affects his own teammates for the betterment of the team. If it’s my money that is paying for his contract, I can easily go to sleep at night justifying it. There are or have been too many bad contracts that never panned out.
Minter call: Most blitz calls, as the blitzing player, you have the green light with a big IF. The QB can read the coming blitz and quickly align the protection accordingly including placing his RB where a blitzing defender can affect the throw. Gilman had the green light but the RB (#30) was lining up at the B gap which should have switched the light to red on Alohi. He was the safety on Hart’s side to help him defend Higgins. I believe Minter made the correct call here but Alohi had a brain fart knowing well he can’t get pass the blocking RB filling the gap. But to in defending Alohi, while bullets things happening so fast and changing positions so quickly, it’s easy to make such seemingly easy mistakes. Just like Ogbonia making the roughing the passer penalty while knowing very well he can’t throw his weight on top the QB like he did.
Thanks, I’m trying to get the hang of the new set-up.
The good news: the Chargers started the “toughest five weeks” with a win.
The bad news: the Broncos look pretty good, so the five weeks became six.
The good news: the Falcons, Bucs, and even the f-ing Chiefs and the Ravens look beatable.
The bad news: none. After that game, I’ve got no bad news for you. Check back on Wednesday.
I’m shocked we won. I’m not conditioned to pull those out. Lucky he missed those FG. The Herbert fumble was the biggest play. We were getting a FG there at least. Instead it turns into 7 for them. Can’t harp on it though. Just get the damn W however you can.
R.I.P Chargering…
Long may that notion rot.
It’s a whole different thing now. It’s a whole different thing.
Chargers doing Charger things. Get used to it!
The light is fucking green, JK!!!!!!
I’m too fucking old for this
You hung in there, though. That, more than age, is what matters.
The light is fucking green! McConkey!!!!!
Come on. The light is green.
This loss is on the offense. You couldn’t cobble together a few clock eating drives to keep the momentum?
How the fuck does Roman not even out up a FG thus half?