So, we head into another exciting offseason. That playoff loss was very disappointing, but it is likely responsible for the Chargers firing OC Roman and OL coach Devlin, and I feel confident both of those coaching positions will be upgraded as a result.

I’m using this post to organize a bunch of thoughts about the 2026 offseason, including the 2026 roster and salary cap and some free agency decisions. This should provide a basis for some interesting discussion.

Players Currently Under Contract in 2026

The Chargers currently have 36 players under contract for 2026. Here they are, along with their current 2026 cap hits from Over the Cap:

(I would prefer to use pictures but cannot get them to upload correctly.)

Proven Performance Escalator (PPE)

The Chargers have two players who will get base salary increases due to PPE. Those increases are not reflected in those cap hits above.

Edge Tuli’s salary will increase from $1,646,087 to the amount of the 2^nd round Restricted Free Agent (RFA) tender, projected to be $5.658M. That increases his 2026 cap hit from $2,090,894 to $6,102,797. This will probably change, since I expect Tuli to get a contract extension this offseason, which will likely change this 2026 cap hit.

LB Henley’s salary will increase from $1,489,149 to the amount of the Original Draft Round RFA tender, which I assume to be the same as the Right of First Refusal (ROFR) RFA tender, projected to be $3.453M. That increases his 2026 cap hit from $1,724,681 to $3,688,532.

I’m going to use these increased cap hits for the rest of this discussion.

Cap Casualties

IMO there are two players who will be cap casualties.

The most obvious is Becton. He has been a disaster of a free agent signing. In the regular season, he missed ~35% of the snaps on offense and has been the Chargers’ worst player. PFF has graded 33 Chargers players on offense this season, and Becton’s grade (35.3) is ranked #32 in that group; only rookie Branson Taylor has a lower grade, but he only played in the meaningless week 18 game. PFF has graded 102 guards this season who have played at least 100 snaps, and Becton’s grade ranks #99 in that group. The team will incur a 2026 dead cap hit of $2.5M to release him, but that will save $10M against the 2026 cap. In addition to those negatives, he complained to the media about his usage, which is behavior that does not fit the Harbaugh culture. Easy call IMO.

Dupree is another easy call. I expect the Chargers to re-sign Mack and Oweh, and I expect them to extend Tuli’s contract. Given those assumptions and given that Kennard should improve in his second season, that would place Dupree at 5^th on the depth chart at best, in a position group that really only needs four players on the active roster. Dupree will be 33 in February, and he has made minimal impact this season. PFF has graded 34 Chargers players on defense this season, and Dupree’s grade (54.3) ranks #29. The team will incur a 2026 dead cap hit of just $250K to release him, and that will save $3.505M against the 2026 cap.

I could see Dissly being another possibility. The team could incur a 2026 dead cap hit of $1.5M to release him and save $4M against the 2026 cap. However, he is a trusted veteran who turns 30 in July, so he is not yet old enough that we should expect his performance to suffer from age-related decline. I suspect the team will keep him to play out the final year of his contract.

Derius Davis could be another candidate. He has been a good punt returner, but a poor kickoff returner who doesn’t play on other special teams units, and he has been a minimal contributor on offense. That said, there aren’t really any cap savings to be had to release him. The team could incur a 2026 dead cap hit of ~$178K to release or trade him, and that would save $1.145M against the cap. That is close enough to what it would take to replace his roster spot that there wouldn’t be any true savings there, just a different player, and they would still have to fill the punt and kickoff returner roles. I expect the team will keep him throughout preseason. If he generates any buzz, maybe they would consider trading him if there is an interested trade partner, but it seems more likely to come down to a final roster cuts decision. For now, I assume he will make it.

In summary, I will assume Becton and Dupree are gone while Dissly and Davis remain on the roster at least until final roster cut decisions.

Other Roster Exclusions

With all due respect to these players, I am going to assume none of them make the final 2026 53-man roster, and thus I am going to ignore them for the rest of this post:

• IDL Fuga
• CB Oladokun
• CB Rogers
• OL Washington

I expect they will have a shot at opening the season on the practice squad.

Draft Picks

The team has five 2026 draft picks, shown here with their projected 2026 cap hits from OverTheCap:

The Chargers are not projected to get any compensatory picks in the 2026 draft. However, there is an outside possibility they could get an additional 3^rd round pick if Chad Alexander is hired as GM for another franchise. He interviewed for the Miami GM job, but they did not hire him. This seems unlikely at this point, and I have to assume it won’t happen.

With no 7^th round picks, I expect these draft picks to all make the final roster. So far under Hortiz in two drafts, the Chargers have drafted 15 players in the first six draft rounds, and 14 are on the roster (13 on the active roster and LB Colson on IR). The only exception is 2025 6^th round pick OL Branson Taylor, who spent the season on the Chargers practice squad.

Roster Nucleus

Everything described above results in a roster nucleus of 30 veteran players and 5 draft picks. Here is the positional breakdown for those 30 veteran players:

• Offense (13):
  • QB (1) – Herbert
  • RB (1) – Hampton
  • FB (1) – Matlock
  • WR (5) – McConkey, Johnston, Harris, Lambert-Smith, Davis
  • TE (2) – Dissly, Gadsden
  • OL (3) – OT Alt, OT Slater, C Bozeman
• Defense (15):
  • Edge (2) – Tuipulotu, Kennard
  • IDL (2) – Campbell, Eboigbe
  • LB (4) – Henley, Colson, Dye, Wax
  • CB (4) – Jackson, Still, Hart, Reed
  • S (3) – James, Molden, Mickens
• Special Teams (2):
  • PK (1) – Dicker
  • P (1) – Scott

Let’s talk through the position groups.

Quarterback

Pretty straightforward. Herbert is QB1 and no QB2 is under contract. 2025 QB2 Lance is an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA). The team’s decision about Lance doesn’t matter a lot to me. If Herbert misses games, Lance is not likely to win games in his place, but there is no clear and obvious alternative who would without committing a lot more cap space to the position.

It is worth noting that, while Lance has been put into some challenging situations when he has played this season, he has played badly. Per PFF, 57 QBs had at least 50 dropbacks this season (Lance has 70). Lance’s PFF offense grade (36.0) ranks #55 in that group.

My main priority here is for the team to have a veteran minimum salary player at QB2. I’m going to assume they sign Lance to a one-year contract at minimum salary. For Lance, that is $1.215M. This would be a pay cut for Lance, so I might be underestimating the cap hit, but I will stick with it for now.

Also, in case there was any question about rostering a QB3, the team should not do that. They can carry a third QB on the practice squad if they feel that is important.

Runningback

Hampton is obviously under contract and will be RB1. He showed a lot of potential this season and hopefully will be even better in 2026 with better health for him and the OL.

The team has no other RBs under contract for 2026. They need at least two more.

I don’t think the team should or will re-sign Harris after his Achilles injury. That signing worked out terribly for the Chargers, and they should move on.

Vidal is an Exclusive Rights Free Agent (ERFA), which means if the Chargers offer him a one-year contract at the league minimum salary, he has to take it (or sit out the season). I expect the Chargers to do exactly that, and I expect him to agree to it. For Vidal, that minimum salary in 2026 is $1.075M.

I expect the team will re-sign UFA Haskins to be RB3 again. He just turned 26 and played for Harbaugh at Michigan. More importantly, he has the second highest PFF special teams grade (80.5) among 65 graded Chargers special teams players, after having the 8^th best Chargers special teams grade (70.6) and playing the 4^th highest number of special teams snaps on the team in 2024. He is a “core four” special teams player, playing on both return units and both coverage units. I assume the Chargers will sign him to a one year contract at veteran minimum salary, which for him would be for $1.145M.

Fullback

Matlock is the guy here. He is under contract with a low cap hit, the team likes him in this role, and he improved this season. In 2024, his PFF offense grade was 39.6, which ranked #29 out of 31 graded Chargers offensive players. In 2025, his PFF offense grade was 52.6, which ranked #21 out of 33 graded Chargers offensive players. Baby steps…

No changes here.

Wide Receiver

The Chargers have five WRs under contract: McConkey, Johnston, Harris, Lambert-Smith, and Davis. Davis is more of a returner than offensive threat, so they could arguably use one more WR, just like in 2025. Just like in 2025, that WR should be Keenan Allen.

I assume the team will sign him to a one- or two-year deal, probably the former. He played for a 2025 cap hit of $5.27M. I assume he will get a raise to return. I’ll conservatively go with one year, $7M. I expect this is a decision that others may question, whether to re-sign him at all or at this salary. Interested in comments on that.

Johnston is eligible to have his 5^th year option exercised this offseason, but that would be at a projected 2027 cost of $17.5M. With all of the other cap consuming moves discussed in this post, I think the Chargers could spend that cap space more wisely. I think they will let him play out his rookie contract in 2026 and then let him walk, hoping he will contribute positively to the comp pick formula.

Tight End

Gadsden and Dissly are the only TEs under contract for 2026. I mentioned above that I expect Dissly to return, and Gadsden had a very strong rookie season and looks like a high potential impact player in 2026 and beyond. That is a good, complementary top pair.

IMO the team needs at least one more TE. I think that should and will be Fisk, who is a Restricted Free Agent (RFA). The team may not make a RFA tender to Fisk, instead choosing to try and sign him to a cheaper contract extension. For this post, I’m going to assume they give him the ROFR RFA tender, projected to be $3.453M.

Conklin has been a poor free agent signing and is a UFA. His PFF offense grade (43.3) ranks #28 out of 33 graded Chargers players. The coaching staff phased him out of the offense after the first five games. Ignoring week 18 since the team chose to rest players which changed the dynamic for Conklin, in weeks 6-17, Conklin only played in 4 of those 11 games, with just 35 total snaps. The team should let him walk, and I think they will.

Offensive Line

Ignoring G Becton and T Washington for reasons described above, that leaves only three OL under contract for 2026, making this position group the biggest offseason priority. They need at least six more players in this group.

OT Slater and OT Alt are both under contract and both coming off injury. I listed them as OTs here as opposed to LT/RT because IMO it is not a given that Slater returns to his LT role. In fact, I think the team should install Alt as the long-term LT and move Slater to RT. I’m not confident they will do that, but, fortunately, that doesn’t matter for purposes of this post.

Bozeman is under contract but is a terrible center, at least at this point in his career. PFF has graded 48 centers this season who played at least 100 offensive snaps. Bozeman’s offense grade (51.7) ranks #45. The current coaching staff seems very loyal to him, so probably the best we can hope for is that he is a reserve center/guard in 2026.

I’m going to make some other assumptions for this group.

I assume the team will re-sign UFA Zion Johnson to continue starting at LG. I expect he will get a high value contract given the state of OL play in the NFL and what we saw with guard contracts in free agency last year. I’m thinking $18M per year over four years with an out for the Chargers after the third year. The cap hits would start low and ramp up. I will project that his 2026 cap hit will be $9M.

The team should use its first round pick on a player who will start at RG (e.g., Francis Mauigoa, MIA; Vega Ioane, Penn State).

The team should overpay to sign Tyler Linderbaum as a veteran center upgrade, assuming he actually reaches unrestricted free agency. Right now, the highest contract average for a center is the Chiefs’ Creed Humphrey at $18M per season. With Linderbaum just 25 years old, IMO the team should be willing to offer him a five year, $100M contract to reset the center market (with appropriate possible outs). No hesitation. I’m going to assume they will do this, and the 2026 cap hit will be $10M.

If they are unable to sign Linderbaum, my backup plan would be to try to sign Connor McGovern to a lesser (but still high) dollar value contract. But for the rest of this post, I’m going to assume they get Linderbaum.

The team should re-sign UFA Salyer to be a top guard/tackle depth player. I’m guessing the team can sign him to a two year, $10M contract, with a $4M cap hit in 2026.

I will leave the last two spots on the 53-man roster unspecified for now, but I think they should be rookies and/or minimum salary veterans, like Penning and/or Bobby Hart.

This would be a very expensive OL but also a drastically upgraded one… like maybe moving from bottom of league level to top of league level in one offseason. Given the Chargers’ focus on having an offensive line centric approach, this makes sense. And Justin Herbert deserves it!

That said, this may be too expensive, especially in 2027 and beyond and especially for Hortiz, who seems averse to long term, high dollar commitments so far. If so, I could see two different scenarios:

1. The team prioritizes Linderbaum over Zion, signs Linderbaum, and lets Zion walk to help their comp pick formula. In that scenario, I would hope the 2^nd round pick would be used on the best available guard, meaning the team could have two rookie guards starting, but each bookended by an All Pro caliber tackle and center.
2. The team is unable to sign Linderbaum (or McGovern). In this case, I think the team should use its second round pick on the best available center in the draft. Unfortunately, this scenario probably means Bozeman is the starting center to open the season until hopefully turning it over to the rookie at some point during the season.

For now, I’m going to assume my initial scenario and see what that looks like.

Edge

The team has only three Edge players under contract for 2026: Tuli, Kennard, and Dupree. I already noted that I expect Dupree to be a cap casualty, so I will ignore him from this point forward.

This could be an alarming situation, but I don’t think it is as bad as that sounds, since I am optimistic they will re-sign Mack and Oweh.

I expect the team to sign Mack to another one-year contract. I expect he will get a raise, so I will assume it will be for $20M.

I expect the team to sign Oweh to a multi-year contract, guessing a three-year contract. He is going to get paid. I’m guessing $15M per year on average, but I could be off base here. I will assume his 2026 cap hit will be $10M.

Tuli is eligible for a contract extension this offseason, and I think the Chargers will give it to him. He is leading the team with 70 pressures, and the next highest total is 39 (Mack); he is leading the team with 13 sacks, and the next highest total is 8 (Oweh); he is second on the team with 32 stops. And he just turned 23 years old in September! He is not close to his prime yet.

I think Tuli will get more than Oweh, guessing $18M per year. I think they could give him four years with an appropriate out after three. That means they should be able to hold his 2026 cap hit down a bit, but I’m still guessing it will jump to $9M. Given his PPE raise was already going to push his cap hit above $6M, this isn’t too bad.

Interior Defensive Line (IDL)

The team has only two IDL players under contract: Eboigbe and Caldwell. Both have had good seasons, and they will form part of a solid group. But the team needs at least three more on the final roster, plus others for camp, practice squad, etc.

I expect the team to re-sign Tart. He and the Chargers have been a good pairing, and I expect he appreciates that and does not want to go elsewhere. He has the highest PFF defense grade (67.9) among the Chargers IDL players. I’m hoping they can sign him to a two-year deal worth $10M, with a 2026 cap hit of $4.5M.

I expect the team will attempt to re-sign Hand. He has played the second highest number of defensive snaps among the Chargers IDL players, despite missing four games while on IR. I think he can be had cheaper than Tart. I’m projecting the team to sign him to a one year, $3M contract.

That leaves at least one vacancy on the final roster. I’m going to leave that open for now. If the team re-signs Zion, signs Linderbaum, and drafts a RG in the first round as I suggested above, that leaves the second round pick open… in that case, IMO it should be used on the best IDL available. Alternatively, this could be the second position (after center) to warrant a high cap investment in an external free agent.

Linebacker

The Chargers have four linebackers under contract for 2026: Henley, Colson, Dye, and Wax. They all seem like locks for the final roster. IMO they need one more, primarily for special teams but who can play LB in a pinch.

I think Perryman has been a fine player for them, but IMO the time has come to let him walk (again).

It would make a lot of sense to re-sign Del’Shawn Phillips, though. He is second in the league with 18 special teams tackles. I assume they will re-sign him to a one year contract at veteran minimum salary, which for him would be for $1.215M.

Cornerback

The team is in good shape with Jackson, Still, Hart, and Reed under contract for 2026. They need two more CBs for the final roster, assuming at least one is a primary special teams player. They need more for camp, but I think just two more for the final roster.

I think the team will likely re-sign St-Juste. He has played well – out of 34 Chargers players graded by PFF on defense, St-Juste’s grade (77.0) ranks #3, and his coverage grade (78.6) ranks #4. He has earned a raise. I’m going to project the Chargers can sign him for one year, $4M.

I also think the team will want to re-sign Leonard, primarily for special teams. He was on IR for the first nine games and returned in week 10. The special teams unit had its five best PFF grades of the season in the six games after the bye, and Leonard contributed to that. I assume they will re-sign him to a one year contract at veteran minimum salary, which for him would be for $1.215M.

Safety

The team is in good shape with James, Molden, and Mickens under contract for 2026. They need one more safety for the final roster, and I assume that will be Tony Jefferson.

Jefferson has the 8^th highest PFF defense grade (70.3) on the Chargers, and he has played the 9^th highest number of defensive snaps. I assume he will again re-sign for the veteran minimum salary, which for him is $1.3M.

Although I have made the argument that it might be most beneficial to trade James, I expect the team will sign James to a contract extension this offseason. I’m fine with that. He is a great player, and it would certainly hurt the Chargers defense to lose him. Walking through this exercise has helped me to lean back towards keeping him being the right move. I’m going to assume they sign him to an extension that lowers his 2026 cap hit from $24.6M to $15M. I’m sure they could lower it more than that if they have a reason to clear more space, but I’m mindful of pushing too much into 2027 and beyond.

Placekicker

Thankfully, it’s Dicker. No change here.

Punter

It’s Scott. No change here.

Long Snapper

Harris is a UFA, and he is going to be 37 in April. That said, he is still very good at his role. His PFF special teams grade (68.9) ranked #9 on the team, and Harris’s stint on IR showed us what the other end of that spectrum looks like with Lovato’s grade (28.4) being the lowest on the entire team, not just special teams.

I think the Chargers would want to re-sign Harris if he is willing, so I assume that will happen. Last time he signed, it was for an average salary of $1.4M. This time, I assume he will sign a three-year contract with outs after both the first and second years. I assume his 2026 cap hit will be $1.5M.

Assumed Roster Core

I have assumed a core of 47 veteran players and 5 draft picks for 2026. Here they are, along with their current 2026 cap hits from Over the Cap:

This projection leaves just one open roster spot. Let’s look at how this changes the positional breakdown, holding out the draft picks other than 1.23, since I know what position to target there:

• Offense (22):
  • QB (2) – Herbert, Lance
  • RB (3) – Hampton, Vidal, Haskins
  • FB (1) – Matlock
  • WR (6) – McConkey, Allen, Johnston, Harris, Lambert-Smith, Davis
  • TE (3) – Dissly, Gadsden, Fisk
  • OL (7) – OT Alt, LG Johnson, C Linderbaum, RG TBD rookie (1.23), OT Slater, IOL Bozeman, G/T Salyer
• Defense (23):
  • Edge (4) – Mack, Tuipulotu, Oweh, Kennard
  • IDL (4) – Campbell, Eboigbe, Tart, Hand
  • LB (5) – Henley, Colson, Dye, Wax, Phillips
  • CB (6) – Jackson, Still, Hart, St-Juste, Reed, Leonard
  • S (4) – James, Molden, Mickens, Jefferson
• Special Teams (3):
  • PK (1) – Dicker
  • P (1) – Scott
  • LS (1) – Harris

With five roster spots not filled and four draft picks not yet accounted for, the only true needs are two additional OL and 1-2 IDL players. I would say in this breakdown, the IDL group looks like the weakest position group, but the rest of the roster looks strong. The final 1-2 players will no doubt be special teams players, so he/they can be at whatever position group makes sense.

Let’s work out the functional cap space.

Practice Squad

Teams are allowed to carry 16 practice squad players, including 4 veteran players. They can carry a 17^th International Pathways Program player; I assume they will do so. Thus, I assume the Chargers will carry the full number of 17 players and will include 4 veteran players.

Non-veteran practice squad players will make $13,750 per regular season week on the squad. Over the 18 regular season weeks, that scales to $247.5K for the full season.

Veteran practice squad players will make between $18.35K and $22.85K per regular season week on the squad. Using the midpoint for 18 regular season weeks, that scales to $370.8K for the full season.

Do the math, and I’m projecting the practice squad to cost $4.7M against the 2026 cap.

Practice Squad Elevations

The CBA allows 2 practice squad players to be elevated every week. Those players get paid at NFL minimum salary level for each week they are elevated.

The Chargers elevated practice squad players a total of 29 times in the 2025 regular season. I will assume 30 2026 elevations for this projection, and I will assume 8 of the activations are veteran practice squad players to be somewhat conservative.

Do the math, and I’m projecting PS elevations to cost $1,007,700 against the 2026 cap.

In Season Injury Replacements

The team will also need to reserve some cap space for 2026 in season injury replacements. I don’t know for sure how the team thinks about this and plans for it, so let’s look at what happened in 2025.

• LT Slater missed 17 regular season games while on IR.
• LB Colson missed 17 regular season games while on IR.
• RB Harris missed 15 regular season games while on IR.
• OT Alt missed 9 regular season games while on IR.
• CB Leonard missed 9 regular season games while on IR.
• LS Harris missed 9 regular season games while on IR.
• RB Hampton missed 7 regular season games while on IR.
• TE Fisk missed 6 regular season games while on IR.
• IDL Ogbonnia missed 5 regular season games while on IR.
• Edge Mack missed 4 regular season games while on IR.
• IDL Hand missed 4 regular season games while on IR.
• LB Perryman missed 4 regular season games while on IR.
• RB Haskins missed 4 regular season games while on IR.

That is 110 games missed by players on IR who otherwise would have been on the active roster and thus had to be replaced. The equivalent of about 6.5 full player seasons.

I will assume the team will reserve $7M for injury replacements, but that is just a guess.

Trades

Hortiz has demonstrated that he will make trades at the end of preseason (e.g., Heinicke, Molden) and in season (e.g., Oweh). This illustrates why it is appropriate to reserve a budget for such trades, although it is also true that the team could typically clear some space if needed by restructuring a veteran contract of one of the higher cap space veterans.

I will assume the team will reserve $7M for end of preseason and/or in season trades. If no trades are made, this can rollover into 2027.

Dead Cap Money

Based on current 2026 dead cap money plus the dead cap money that will be incurred for releasing the 6 players I identified, here is a current projection of 2026 dead cap money:

This will grow at final cuts.

Salary Cap Charges

Based on taking the actions I described above, this is what the salary cap charges look like:

Functional Cap Space

The team is in good shape from a cap standpoint, based on my assumptions:

That is without the 53^rd active roster player, without the inevitable increase in dead money, without any players on the reserve lists, and without any adjustments that will be finalized at the start of the 2026 league year. But considering that I reserved $7M for trades, there is really up to ~$23M still available to cover those things and additional spending.

Discussion

I only projected a single external free agent in this exercise, though Linderbaum is obviously a big one. Other than that, my collective assumptions amount largely to “running it back” but hopefully with much stronger OL play and better offensive coaching. That makes perfect sense to me. If the Chargers had Slater and Alt healthy all season, IMO the Chargers would have been the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs.

With up to $23M in cap space still available, there is an opportunity to spend cap space to upgrade one or more of the veterans I assumed would be back. There is also the opportunity to bring in a premium external free agent to fill that final roster spot.

I haven’t examined the free agent market for IDL players, but I think targeting a top player there would be a great way to upgrade this roster, which is already strong. That might be particularly helpful if DC Minter departs, since we may not be able to count on the same kind of “whole is greater than the sum of its parts” defensive performance without him.

Conclusion

Think about this for a minute. The Chargers are going to get Slater and Alt back and significantly upgrade the offensive coaching and OL coaching. On top of those things, they should (finally!) get a center upgrade, and perhaps a significant IDL upgrade. This was already a team that won 11 games. There is no other playoff team that will get this level of upgrade in the offseason. The media will presumably pick the Broncos and/or Chiefs to win the AFC West next season, but IMO the Chargers are the favorites as long as they don’t have similarly terrible injury luck next season. That means they should contend for the #1 seed in the AFC.

As it was last season, the opportunity is there for Hortiz, et al. to maintain the core of the current roster while augmenting with a couple premium free agents rather than shopping exclusively in the bargain bin. I hope to chooses to do it this time.

Thoughts? I made a tremendous number of assumptions in this exercise, interested in what you all think of them.