James is under contract through 2026. That means there will be a lot of talk this offseason about extending him. There are 3 primary reasons to extend him, which are all fairly obvious:
- He is a good player, and this means he would be with the team for some number of seasons beyond 2026, providing good play. It also creates the potential for him to play his entire career with the Chargers and go down as all-time franchise great.
- They could structure the extension to clear 2026 cap space, since he is currently set to count $24M against the 2026 cap.
- If they don’t extend him, a worst-case scenario is that he could get frustrated, and it could negatively affect his play in the 2026 season. Extending him avoids this risk.
However, I think they should strongly consider trading him if they can find a trade partner. Why?
- I don’t think the team can structure its roster to become a Super Bowl winning roster with a safety as one of it few highest paid players. At least not with also having a top franchise QB contract in place.
- The current Chargers coaching staff has shown an ability to get good to great play out of defensive backs of all types:
- High draft picks: James (1st), Jackson (2nd by CAR), Fulton (2nd by TEN)
- Mid round draft picks: Molden (3rd by TEN), St-Juste (3rd by WAS)
- Late round draft picks: Still (5th), Hart (5th), Mickens (6th), Gilman (6th)
- Undrafted: Jefferson, Reed
- Bargain free agency: Fulton, Jackson, St-Juste, Jefferson
- Bargain trade: Molden
On the first point, IMO the team would be better served to have low priced players at the non-premium positions, such as RB (check), TE (check), LB (check), S. On the flip side, they should ideally spread their highest paid players across these position groups: QB (check), WR (not yet, but coming with McConkey), OL (check), Edge (check), IDL, and CB. They don’t have it at CB, but #2 above suggests that is okay. But they also don’t have it at IDL, thanks to the unfortunate decision not to invest in Poona. IMO they need to move the high cap hit for James to a high cap hit for an anchor player in the IDL position group.
This is further supported by the second point. The team has shown it can coach good DB performance out of all kinds of players. I’m not saying they can coach another player up to be Derwin James, but rather that they can coach up players such that the loss in safety play will be less than the gain in play by investing the cap space at IDL.
Consider the top 10 2025 safety cap hits:
- Derwin James, LAC, S – $23,865,314
- Xavier McKinney, GB, S – $17,850,000
- Jalen Thompson, ARI, S – $13,736,570
- Jessie Bates III, ATL, S – $12,258,505
- Budda Baker, ARI, S – $10,816,250
- Harrison Smith, MIN, S – $9,903,068
- Amani Hooker, TEN, S – $9,620,020
- Antoine Winfield Jr., TB, S – $9,138,835
- Brandon Jones, DEN, S – $9,062,153
- Kyle Hamilton, BAL, S – $8,733,620
First, I would observe that only 4 of these players are on teams that currently seem likely to make the 2025 playoffs: James, McKinney, Winfield, and Jones. But the cap hits are much lower for Winfield (-$14.7M) and Jones (-$14.8M) than for James. Even McKinney’s is $6M lower. Only one (McKinney) seems to be on a Super Bowl contender.
Consider the top 10 2025 safety contract averages:
- Kyle Hamilton, BAL, S – $25,100,000
- Kerby Joseph, DET, S – $21,500,000
- Antoine Winfield Jr. TB, S – $21,025,000
- Derwin James, LAC, S – $19,133,000
- Minkah Fitzpatrick, MIA, S – $18,403,059
- Budda Baker, ARI, S – $18,000,000
- Trevon Moehrig, CAR, S – $17,000,000
- Xavier McKinney, GB, S – $16,750,000
- Jessie Bates III, ATL, S – $16,005,000
- Jevon Holland, NYG, S – $15,100,000
This shows some differences driven by timing. For example, Hamilton’s cap hit in the 2025 list is much lower than his average because he just signed his extension, whereas James’ cap hit in the 2025 list is quite a bit higher than his average because he is late in his contract.
That said, there are still only 4 players here on teams that currently seem likely to make the 2025 playoffs: Joseph, Winfield, James, and McKinney. Only 2 of them (Joseph and McKinney) are on teams that seem to have a legit chance at a Super Bowl.
I’m not sure that any of that is definitive or predictive, so let’s turn to James’ actual performance. I know views on PFF grades are mixed, but it is available to me, so I will use it. Obviously, I recognize it isn’t perfect, so we need to take it as one element of evaluation.
Most important is James’ 2025 performance, since it is most recent (all rankings out of 100 safeties graded through week 12 with at least 100 defensive snaps):
- Overall defensive grade: 75.0, tied for #15, 601 snaps
- Pass rush: 78.1, #13, 49 snaps
- Coverage: 77.2, #7, 328 snaps
- Run defense: 60.0, #80, 224 snaps – worst performance of his career by a large margin
- Tackling: 47.8, #88 – worst performance of his career by a large margin
Part of the rationale for why Derwin is so important to the defense is that playing him at nickel is supposed to help the Chargers run defense and pass rush. He has been good at pass rushing but quite disappointing in run defense, and the latter has hurt the Chargers defense this season.
And it is worth asking, has he performed like one of the best safeties in the NFL this season? Well, not as an All Pro caliber safety, so not as a top 5 safety. As a Pro Bowl caliber safety? Maybe, maybe not, hard to tell right now. He is being paid to be an All Pro safety.
Looking back over his career with the Chargers:
- 2025: Good season, but not playing up to potential or contract
- 2024: Great season, 2nd team All Pro
- 2023: Worst performance of his career by a large margin
- 2022: Great season, 2nd team All Pro
- 2021: Good season, but did not play up to potential or contract
- 2020: Missed season due to injury
- 2019: Played well but missed all but 5 games due to injury
- 2018: Great (career best) season, 1st team All Pro
His play has been inconsistent. Even ignoring 2019-2020 due to injury (which largely killed the value of his rookie contract to the Chargers), he has had 3 great seasons and 3 lesser performance seasons, including 2025. This doesn’t really seem to indicate an urgency for a contract extension for a player who will be 30 before the 2026 season and 31 before any season under an extension.
Going into 2026, the team only has 4 active-roster caliber OL under contract, at least until Becton becomes a cap casualty; of the other 3, two (Slater, Alt) are coming off injury, and the other (Bozeman) is arguably the worst center in the NFL. This unit needs a tremendous amount of work.
Going into 2026, the team only has 2 active-roster caliber IDL under contract, Caldwell, and Eboigbe. This unit also needs a lot of work.
Going into 2026, the team only has 3 active-roster caliber Edge players under contract, at least until Dupree becomes a cap casualty; of the other two (Tuli, Kennard), only one is proven at the NFL level. Again, a lot of work is needed here.
A much greater level of team resources needs to be invested in these 3 position groups than was true in 2024 and 2025. A mechanism to enable that is to trade James.
And I haven’t even talked about the fact that the team will get value back for trading James. The Chargers only have 5 draft picks in the 2026 draft. They could obviously use more. I’m not sure if James would bring back a first round pick, but let’s say a worst case is a 2nd and 4th. Those picks add significant value in addition to clearing cap space to spend on IDL or other high value position(s) instead of safety.
I expect this will be an unpopular take. Still, thoughts?
Thought now was a good time to give this article of yours a little push on our X page,
Tau837. Hope you don’t mind!
This is a great question, and as you and others have pointed out, just seems rooted in intangibles. There have been stretches were James misses time, and the defense has actually played better. I don’t think we’d ever see a situation where our offense would play better if we lost $20M worth of salaried talent on the offense line (namely, the center position).
The fan in me wants Derwin here in perpetuity. But if there is a trade opportunity that nets some sizeable returns, I’d be interested… and I’d probably look to bring Alohi back if a trade was made.
Also Tau – I saw you mention that Zion’s market could be in the $18M range… while it could be, the guard market is weird. I’ve spent hours with my buddy Josh dumping quantitative and qualitative data into spreadsheets and trying to find correlations… but it’s really, really fickle trying to predict where someone like Zion ends up going for. He could easily be another Dalton Risner and settling for sub-$5M/yr (with a slight 1st round bump) because the league thinks he’s been given enough run as a starter, with enough talent around him, but still hasn’t established himself as a consistently above-average starter.
Interesting discussion. Thanks Kyle for starting the topic and thank you Erick, Tau and Al for adding to the conversation. A few thoughts:
AJ Smith used to say “you’re a Chargers one year at a time.” I think everyone has to earn their spot and everything that could make the roster better should be on the table. With only 5 picks, trading an aging Derwin for two picks seems pretty damn attractive.
Great discussions about Derwin and OL, thanks Tau for the analysis and initiating the thoughts. I like the rational/logical discussion, but I don’t think Harbaugh will be thinking that way. Derwin, along with Herbert (and Mack as long as he wants to play) are Harbaugh’s anchors. Not just because Derwin was the first to meet him as he was working at the facility through the offseason when Harbaugh arrived.
What do you folks think of Harbaugh’s absolute love for Derwin. That’s gotta be factored in, right?
Yes and no. I would say Harbaugh had a lot of love for Allen from the time Harbaugh took the job right up until Allen was traded.
That said, I agree that Harbaugh probably views James as a foundational player. I am skeptical they will trade him, and I’m not even sure how easy it would be to find a market for a 30 year old safety who a new team will have to immediately extend with a top of market contract.
I probably should have incorporated this into my original post, but consider where the Chargers rank in 2025 cap spending by position group, per Spotrac as of today:
QB – $39.41M, #1 0
RB – $10.64M, #1 4
WR – $15.02M, #27
TE – $11.06M, #1 8
OL – $56.93M, #5
Edge – $36.05M, #1 1
IDL – $13.1M, #27
LB – $8.24M, #28
CB – $12.12M, #28
S – $30.31M, #1
PK – $2.73M, #1 5
P – $2.2M, #1 3
LS – $1.46M, #6
WR spending will obviously go up when McConkey gets extended. OL spending will obviously go up when Alt gets extended. Where will they take that extra cap space from?
The imbalance in defense cap spending is remarkable… they are almost paying the safeties more than all IDL, LB, and CB players combined. IMO this breakdown makes what Minter has accomplished seem even more impressive.
The question has to be how reasonable it is to believe the Chargers can sustain success with that kind of imbalance in defensive spending. IDL is what jumps out the most to me.
Tau,
You could also say that investing in the draft at those positions in day 2 or later and hitting on those players (Still, Hart, Caldwell, Henley, Tuli) has also lowered the $ spent there, but not sacrificing quality. The OL is on the opposite end of the spectrum and I know that $ is inflated by Slater’s deal, but even without that $ factored in they are still way over paid for their performance.
No doubt. But the question is, is that success sustainable without spending more on those positions?
There are also more OL than any other position group by a large margin. Here are their 2025 OL cap hits:
T Slater (IR) $14.8M
T Alt (IR) $7.55M
T/G Pipkins $9.26M
G Becton $7.33M
C Bozeman $5.07M
G Zion $4.7M
G/T Salyer $3.46M
C James $1.18M
T Deculus $1.04M
G/T Hart $744K
T Washington (PUP) $495K
T Sharpe (PS) $396K
C Mustipher (PS) $245K
G/T Taylor (PS) $234K
Pipkins, Becton, and Bozeman are the ones that stand out on that list as being overpaid based on performance.
Those are the three I was thinking of as overpaid. Let’s also throw into the mix that Zion will be a FA, so we are probably going to need resources to fill the entire IOL this offseason and unless he prefers to take a little less to stay in LA, he might be a goner after seeing that Hortiz had no stomach for the FA IOL market last year. Would anyone be shocked if they kept Becton around for the simple reason that he is under contract already and it’s one less position on the IOL they need to actively fill?
The OL ranking was shocking (at least to me).
IMO the nature of Slater’s contract makes it untenable to trade or release him until after the 2027 season at the earliest. So obviously we will know much more about how he recovers from his injury before that decision point.
Agree. The contract is brutal. The injury timing felt very Butler-esque.
The Chargers are where they are with Slater. I do think that past performance is the best indicator of future results. Counting on Slater to play out his contract performing at a high level while staying mostly healthy is not a good bet. The Chargers need to develop a better plan B. Options:
I don’t see Becton coming back. He has been a massive disappointment and now has publicly complained about his usage. I think he is gone.
I could see the team re-signing Zion, but they will probably have to pay him a lot to prevent him from testing free agency. I think he gets $18M+/year APY, and I’m not sure it makes sense for the Chargers to pay that much to keep him when they can probably benefit in the comp formula from letting him walk.
I don’t know much about the draft class yet, but Brugler posted a mock draft this morning and showed these players in the first round:
He showed the Chargers picking at #25 :
I’m not sure the Chargers will be picking that low. Right now, they are tied with 4 other teams for the 8th best record in the league, and we know they face a brutal schedule the rest of the way.
Regardless, I would be happy with Mauigoa or Ioane in the first and the best center in the 2nd or 3rd, depending on where they would need to take him.
If they draft G and C in the top 2 rounds, that implies to me that they would not bring back both Zion and Becton. You draft a guard in the first round and you expect him to start as a rookie. Same for center, though with Bozeman that doesn’t have to be week 1, necessarily. At some point next season, Bozeman would move to backup.
So I’m thinking something like this:
LT – Alt
LG – Veteran external free agent / 1st round pick
C – 2nd round pick
RG – Veteran external free agent / 1st round pick
RT – Slater
Backups – Bozeman and 2 of Salyer, Hart, Penning
Yes I agree and expect a major overhaul of the Offensive line. Slater and Alt are the only locks for the roster.
Becton will be gone. He was never their first choice but once other options were off the table they clearly structured his contract knowing that signing him would be gamble.
I would not re-sign Zion and I would cut Bozeman too (though I suspect they will end up keeping him around for some reason).
They need multiple signings and multiple draft picks on the OL next year.
My niece goes to Penn State so I watch the games usually every week with my brother in law. Once I saw Ioane on the radar as a potential Rd1 talent I started watching him in games. The guy is fantastic. Strong with good feet and he has a nasty streak. It is still very early to start formulating draft boards and needs until after FA, but this guy would be a slam dunk in Rd1. He might not last until the mid to late 20’s though.
As of right now I am in the camp of IOL/Edge/DT in Rd1, but it will all depend on what is done in FA. The roster will have a ton of holes after the new league year.
I agree with your point – Becton is a huge disappointment and is likely gone. However, cutting Becton limits team leverage in discussions with Johnson. Replacing all three interior OL given the price of OL in free agency and limited draft capitol is asking for a lot. If the price is manageable, I think they keep Zion & Bozeman, draft a center and either sign or draft a guard.
I would love it if the Chargers spent their first two picks on the interior OL. Just not sure they can do that with the needs on the interior of the DL and Edge (and LB). Re-signing Oweh and having Mack back solves some of the problem here. Having Kennard and Junior ready to play in the NFL will also help.
Also interesting that you put Alt at LT and Slater at RT. If I had to guess at the OL:
Reserves:
If Harbaugh opens up the Spanos checkbook and hires Frank Smith, then drafts a quality center, I like this group in 2026
I doubt the price will be what the Chargers want. They may re-sign him just to prevent having to replace all 3 starting IOL, as you suggest, but IMO it will take $18M+. If I were advising Zion, I would want him to hit the open market before any decision to return.
I agree they will want to bring both back, but both are going to get a raise, so that will be expensive. They could also extend Tuli this offseason, but I assume that won’t happen.
For a team with a right-handed QB, LT > RT. I’m not sure Slater will be ready to play by week 1. If he is, he will still presumably miss most of camp, and we can’t know he will return to his previous level of performance. You have also pointed out Slater’s injury history many times.
I don’t think it makes sense to put Slater back at LT given all these factors, and I think Alt earned the long term starting LT role this season.
I don’t think Mack or Oweh are going to break the bank. Age limits the number of teams who could realistically sign Mack. He likely gets a contract similar to the current $18M.
Oweh is younger, which means he’s probably going to be looking for a long-term contract with high guarantees. I googled the contract forecast and the consensus is a contract of 4 years, $80M, which should be do-able for the Chargers. The question will be, do the Chargers want to spend that on Oweh or potentially go after a better player (like Hendrickson)?
Fair point about Slater. FWIW, I read somewhere that Slater was spotted walking around the Chargers facility in November, which is a good sign. I also read that the Chargers may look to kick him to the interior, which is not a good sign (and would make his contract a disaster). Slater being un-available or un-able to play tackle creates a huge hole. It would be crazy if the Chargers had to draft ANOTHER tackle in the `1st round. 3 first round tackles in 6 years? Yesh.
Hey Kev – the Bozeman contract is interesting. If I remember right, about half of Bozeman’s contract is paid of % of snaps played incentives, which are currently labeled as “likely to be earned” and accounting against the cap because his previous year snap counts indicate he should hit those numbers again.
Honestly – I would bring back Bozeman in a heartbeat next year, assuming he can be a depth piece at C and G. If he drops down the depth chart AS HE SHOULD, he’s cap hit will only be half of what is currently shown, unless injuries put him on the field.
But – if he’s retained and handed the position again, I’ll be pissed :).
You’re last point is spot on. I would feel so much better about the Penning trade if we felt confident in our OL coaching.
A highly logical and (with respect), a highly persuasive argument for trading away Derwin; at least from a quantitative perspective.
The key question with Derwin is always going to be about how you apportion value (if any) to his qualitative impact, if you believe he has one.
I just don’t even know how to resolve this.
We have a Safety who is (in your words) ‘good” and in some seasons great who is spoken about in hushed tones by all his teammates and coaches. They love coming to work because of Derwin James. They stand taller because of Derwin James. Are they better in the film room because of Derwin James? Do they communicate better on the field because of Derwin James? Is he the fabric of the orgnasation and would his removal tear the cultural fabric for the next [X] seasons?
I have no earthly idea. I am also not in the building. Perhaps they could find another, or multiple, other leaders to fill the void if he was traded?
Very challenging decision this one, and I’m glad I’m not the one making it.
Good post, Alister. For the reasons you articulate, I assume the team will stay the course and extend James, which is both justifiable and the easy path.
They will justify it based on intangibles moreso than tangible play on the field, and, to be clear, his play on the field has been good to great, just not consistently great, which is what he is being paid to deliver.
The bottom line is, what is the expected delta between having James and a lesser Edge/IDL group vs. having a stronger Edge/IDL group but no James? IMO it is likely that the latter situation makes more positive impact on winning, but there is no way to prove it.
On a different note, I am frequently reminded in my life about the famous quote “Graveyards are filled with indispensable men.” No one is indispensable, and that applies to NFL rosters as much as anything else in life.
I think if pushed into a corner, I’m on your side Tau (about the latter situation having a bigger impact).
The glorification of “team leaders” on NFL Films (think Steve Sabol zooming in on the Ray Lewis dance and his motivational speeches) potentially causes us all to overestimate the impact these heart and soul players have on winning championships. Former and current players might say something different though. I’m not so bold as to think I have the answer here.
Nice quote. I’ve recently survived a significant restructure at work (~8% of staff, some of whom are very talented with long tenure). A timely reminder never to assume you’re indispensable especially at a large organisation!
Another point is that you are taking away a known quantity at this point (both tangibly and intangibly) with Derwin on the hope that the resources gained in trading him will be used on the IDL/Edge/IOL and that those resources will turn out to be successful additions. For all we know those picks might be used on another S or CB or RB or TE or players that are busts?
In the game of craps we call this betting on the come. You hope that the next roll will give you a better situation on the board than you have, but it’s still not guaranteed to do so.
Sure, that is a fair point. But that is Hortiz’s job, to excel at making roster decisions in the face of risk and uncertainty.
There is also uncertainty in extending James as one of the highest paid safeties in the league. Any extension for a player like James inevitably amounts to paying for past performance and hoping he can provide that same performance in future seasons.
He turns 30 before next season. When does the inevitable decline occur in his play (or are we already seeing it in his career worst run defense in tackling)? How likely is he to actually deliver play on the field commensurate with what that extension will pay him?
And at what opportunity cost?
I am skeptical there will be enough value in a trade for him so it would end up being more of a salary dump (which they don’t really need to do). A restructure seems more appropriate.
“Don’t really need to do” is subjective. IMO they *need* to spend more on OL, Edge, and IDL, not necessarily in that order. But more than just 2026 spending, it becomes more a matter of how to prioritize use of finite resources.
Should significant resources be used on safety at the necessary exclusion of using them on other position groups or not? That is the fundamental question. As much as I like Derwin, I think the answer is no, I would not continue investing like this in safety to the exclusion of other position groups.
Given that perspective, it makes sense to trade him and get whatever they can get for him to maximize the deployment of the finite resources going forward.
However, like I have already said, I doubt the Chargers will do this.
Tau,
This is an interesting take and like you said, probably an unpopular one being that Derwin is a fan favorite and one of the most popular players on the team. I think the discussion of the scarcity of players under contract on both lines is another indictment of the constant one year deals, and is a discussion to dive into further once the offseason is upon us. IMO, It creates a ton of turnover every year and by using this method you are bound to get as many Becton/Conklin type results as you are a Ford or Perryman. Of course the flip side is that you limit the bad deals to one year, but churning 20+ players every year doesn’t seem like a sound process. It is impossible to plug every hole in the draft and FA when you have a bigger roster core, no less 1/3 of the roster, and now with less picks.
But getting back to Derwin trade, the one question I have would be that do you think the formula to finding success so far in the secondary with lower round picks by Hortiz and one year deals is because Derwin plays such a huge role that it makes their job easier on the field? Does his flexibility afford Minter to reduce their roles so that they are more successful without broader responsibilities? PFF can never grade the effect he has on opposing teams game plans because of his presence and versatility.
It seems like Minter has been able to, for the most part, create a successful scheme around Derwin. I’m not saying that he cannot do it without him, but the Minter/McDonald scheme flourishes with the type of chess piece S they can deploy. McDonald had it with Hamilton in Baltimore and his defense in Seattle has really taken off once they drafted Derwin clone, Emmanwori. Could it be a coincidence? Possibly, but the theory definitely has some merit.
For the record as of now, I am in the camp of extending him to keep him in the fold another 3-4 years, but I am not 100% married to it, because as you laid out, the roster construction decisions the last two seasons, have left the team barren at critical position groups going into this off season. In fact, the roster construction was so bad at certain spots that Hortiz had to throw draft picks at it in season just to try and be competent. I know injuries played a huge part with the OT, but the Edge group was a glaring issue since the end of last year and it cost us a pick just to try to get another average player to add to the rotation. Sorry for the roster rant, it just chaps my ass the way it was built this year. Good discussion topic with Derwin though. It definitely has merit.
Good question. My gut reaction is no, but I recognize I could be wrong about it.
When it comes down to it, he is generally playing nickel. If he was hurt, another player would play nickel, probably Still.
So what would be the dropoff, exactly? Fewer pass rush opportunities and reduced pass rush effectiveness. Is there anything else? I’m not sure… Still might be equal (or better) at coverage… he could be equal (or better) at run defense (and tackling). There would also be a possible dropoff from Still on the outside to another outside CB… like Hart or Jackson… how much of a dropoff is that?
There is a lot of uncertainty here, but it is not clear to me at all that losing James would result in an unrecoverable problem for the Chargers defense, and it might be just the opposite, if they were able to invest another $24M in IDL and/or Edge.