We’ve just releasedย Episode 136ย of theย Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis is below:
Christmas is just around the corner and the #BoltFam can REJOICE following a comfortable 34-17 win by the team in Dallas, the Chargersโ fourth consecutive victory. With a Broncos loss in Wk 16 and the AFC West well and truly alive, join us on TDU today as we recap the Boltsโ trip to Jerrah World, read through Santaโs Naughty and Nice List for Season 2025, and share our score predictions for a big Wk 17 match-up against the Texans. Donโt miss it!
You can also listen on Spotify below (or download on audio wherever you like to listen to podcasts):
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Hope you enjoy the episode! Thanks so much for listening ๐
Alister (@TDU_Alister)
I absolutely think you guys need a beer sponsorship. I am in favor! If I had a brewery, I would sponsor, but alas.
On the YeNa award for Perryman, I agree. I have been on the record in the past of saying that I did not believe the team needed Perryman. I still see it that way.
I realize opinions vary on PFF data, but Perryman’s PFF grade (56.1) is #25 on the Chargers defense this season. He has 16 stops, but also 7 missed tackles (12.5%), and he has allowed 16 receptions for 179 yards and a 104.0 passer rating into his coverage. I agree with Andy that his penalty on Sunday was dumb and avoidable. I anticipate that someone might suggest he is a leader in the locker room, but I doubt that is needed with Mack and Derwin on the defensive roster.
With regard to Staley, I think it is generally held that the Saints’ strength of schdeule has been amongst the easiest in the NFL. I assume that holds true of the offenses they have faced, but not sure of the data.
On the Houston game, I think Chargers win. Everything is in front of them, and they are at home. They also have the motivation to avenge the playoff disaster. I’m thinking 27-17.
I liked Andy’s hat. Merry Christmas to all of you who celebrate it!
Thanks so much Brian. Hope you had a lovely Xmas yesterday (assuming you celebrate it!)
So we’re halfway there then ๏ปฟ ๐ ๏ปฟ
My take on Perryman is that:
I think the following about Staley‘s season with NO:
I promised myself this would be the year I gave up believing in Staley if the Saints sh*t the bed.
It would have been too much evidence in the “against” column.
Before the season, there wasn’t a serious analyst who thought the Saints would be a Top 20 Defense in any major statistical category. What they’ve done (Top 10-15 in almost every important metric) has been an impressive coaching job.
I could go down the list of things I’ve been surprised by player-by-player (the performance of guys like Cam Jordan, Kool-Aid McKinstry etc) who I thought would fail in Staley’s scheme, but that’s enough detail I think. He’s made some real changes to how he coaches Defense and we’ll see if it sticks in the next few years. It’s been a bounce-back year for him.
Hope you’re right! Enjoy the watch
Good conversation. As usual, I spend all my spare time reading your great takes vs. responding. A few comments:
Staley:
Houston :
Beer sponsorship: Just want to point out that I was your first beer sponsor (which I will do again when we are in MEL for the 2026/27 holiday season!).
Funny Australia story (that has nothing to do with football): 2019, we dropped our kids off with my wife’s parents in Melbourne, then caught a flight to Perth. At the airport, Virgin had these weird bag check machines. There was a woman with a “MEL” nametag that helped us check our bags. I kept calling her “Mel,” which I thought was a common Aussie name (like Sheila). Kept calling her Mel and she just smiled. After 10 minutes of this, another woman, also named Mel, came up to assist our “Mel.” I said something stupid like “is every woman working for Virgin named Mel?” She then explained that “MEL” was the airport code, which I knew, but was too jet-lagged (or ?) to realize. When traveling, my wife likes to tell me to get “Mel” to help us….
IMO you give Staley an unnecessary pass here. While I agree that Telesco was a bad GM, and Spanos likely meddled with negative impact on results, Staley himself had involvement in decision-making about his personnel. Probably less in his first season, since he inherited a roster. But after that, he was involved in draft and free agent decisions.
I don’t spend a lot of time following other teams besides the Chargers but it is not clear to me that Shough/Rattler is worse than all other QB rooms (e.g., NYJ, CLE, LVR, TEN, MIN). I would rather have Ward and McCarthy than Shough/Rattler going forward, but it is certainly not clear that both of them will turn out to be legit long term starters.
I agree with all this, but it goes beyond that. It would go against the entire culture Harbaugh has built to say they are going to sit Herbert now to protect him when he is healthy enough to play. And they would have to force Herbert into it. Competitors compete, period.
That is a funny travel story.๏ปฟ ๐ ๏ปฟ
In no way am I giving Staley a pass. As I said:
I do agree that a quality coach like Harbaugh would not put up with the shit-show that was the Chargers front office. I can partially explain Staley’s performance on his age and experience, but McVey seems to be able to build quality teams at a very young age. Staley is no McVey. Is Staley a good DC? Maybe. I think the jury is out, but he was great one year for the LAR and is exceeding expectations this year.
NYJ:
Cle:
LVR:
Ten:
Min:
NOS:
New Orleans is the only team without a 1st round pick in their QB room (the Chargers have 2 FWIW). You could make an argument that Cleveland is worse, but I think NO is far worse than the remainder.
So what? The point of discussion was about performance. Pedigree does not equal performance. I’m surprised I actually have to write this out, since I’m sure you understand this.
As I’m sure you are aware, there are many factors that contribute to QB performance. Coaching is a big factor. Strong offensive line play. Having play-makers with YAC ability.
In several offseason conversations, you pointed out the lack of investment in the DL, using draft picks to make the point. I get that draft position isn’t a measure of performance, but it is a measure of talent. You need to be a talented player to be drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft.
I just re-read the list. Only the Browns rival the Saints for worst QB room. I think the Saints are worse, but both are terrible.
As I already mentioned, I would take Ward and McCarthy over Shough/Rattler, but there is no guarantee either of them will become a long term NFL starter.
Given all that you know right now, from right now forward:
Would you rather have Shough/Rattler or Tyrod/Fields/Hooker?
Would you rather have Shough/Rattler or Geno/Pickett/AOC?
Would you rather have Shough/Rattler or Sanders/Gabriel?
IMO the answer is Shough/Rattler in each case. And IMO it isn’t particularly close.
If you disagree, that’s fine, I’m happy to agree to disagree about it. I wasn’t anticipating this would turn into this long of a tangent.
I think this ‘go against the entire culture Harbaugh has built’ point is also germane to any discussion about trading away Derwin at the end of the year. Less so than sitting the starting QB during regular season games. But still relevant?
I suppose there is something to that, but the Chargers under Hortiz and Harbaugh have made plenty of moves driven by business/cap considerations rather than culture. Examples: trading Allen and Gilman; releasing Bosa; letting Ford and Dobbins sign elsewhere.
I’m pretty sure I indicated that while I think trading James is the optimal decision, I don’t think it will happen.
Extremely funny “MEL” story, Kev ๏ปฟ ๐ ๏ปฟ
I will note here that sometimes context matters to metrics. Looking at defensive splits for the Saints (e.g., at PFR), I speculate without delving deeply into it that opponents spent a lot of time leading the Saints and were content to run the ball to shorten the game. That resulted in fewer defensive plays and fewer total yards/first downs/TDs allowed than if those offenses were maximizing their chances to score. It results in better EPA numbers, better success rate, etc.
That said, I’m happy for Staley if this is sustainable for him. I remain skeptical that he will ever succeed as a head coach, but maybe he will prove me wrong.
FWIW, New Orleans is 29th in points scored and 14th in points allowed, so there is some credence to your theory.
That said, the Jets are 28th in points scored and 30th in points allowed, so….
To date, per PFR:
– Saints were trailing for 553 of their 920 defensive plays (60.1%)
– Jets were trailing for 509 of their 946 defensive plays (53.8%)
This doesn’t prove anything, it would take a much deeper dive to find anything meaningful. It just struck me that it is at least possible that opponents chose to shorten the games when leading, which would positively impact defensive metrics.
Other context also matters a lot in this kind of discussion, like the Jets trading Q Williams and Sauce midseason.
I don’t think there’s a great track record for 1st time head coaches who fail, then succeed in their second stint. Maybe Bill Belichick, but he did win a playoff game in Cleveland before getting fired. Now that I type that, McCoy and Lynn also won playoff games, so… Yea, maybe Belichick is one example.
Staley’s body language was not good in his last 1.5 years. I agree with you that he’s likely not going to ever be a quality HC.
Would you put Dan Campbell in that list? He was an interim with Mia before Det. Not sure you can count interim coaches because they are just thrown into a bad situation and have to make due, but he was impressive enough in that job to get consideration for the Det job.
I guess that’s an example. Not sure if being an interium coach provides a good example of what you would bring to a team when given time to build a staff & organize all of the off/pre season activities (and install your “system”). It would allow for a coach to demonstrate leadership, which is also important (and one of Harbaugh’s strengths).
The list is bigger than that. Off the top of my head some guys who had better success in their second or third stint as head coach:
Don Shula
Dick Vermeil
Belichick (you mentioned)
Pete Carroll
Tom Coughlin
John Fox
Andy Reid
Marty Schottenheimer
Staley is 43 yo and since getting fired has had some different experiences. A year in San Fran being exposed to the Shanahan stuff. Now time in New Orleans with Mickey Loomis. His defensive staff this year has only one guy who was with him at the Chargers (Jay Rodgers). He tried to bring in new people from college with different ideas. Time will tell if he ever gets a second HC gig and succeeds at it.
But I donโt see why he wouldnโt be a strong candidate to do so. Heโs still razor sharp intellectually. Heโs had some professional setbacks which, with proper time for reflection, can be the making of people. And, most importantly, he might not have a r***** for a GM the next time around.
Shula was 71-23-4 with the Colts, 2-3 in the playoffs with one super bowl appearance. Not exactly a failure. From Wikipedia:
Vermeil was 54-47 and 3-4 in the playoffs and one Super Bowl appearance. The Eagles went to the playoffs 4 of his 7 years there. From Wikipedia:
Carroll is a god example, getting fired after 1 season with the Jets.
You’ve changed the topic of discussion. Kev said “1st time head coaches who fail, then succeed in their second stint.” Not “guys who had better success in their second or third stint as head coach.”
IMO none of the coaches you listed failed at their first head coaching job other than Carroll. (Including Belichick, though I know Kev mentioned him.)
Shula won a NFL championship. Vermeil, Fox, and Reid took their teams to the Super Bowl. Coughlin was the most successful expansion team head coach in NFL history and took the Jags to 2 AFCCGs. Schottenheimer took the Browns to the playoffs in each of his 4 full seasons as head coach and to 2 AFCCGs.
Aside from Carroll, IMO none of them are valid comps for Staley, other than maybe Carroll. That doesn’t mean Staley cannot get another head coaching job and be successful in it, just that we have not come up with another head coach who did that after a comparable first stint.
Responding to both you and
KevDiego here.
I expanded the discussion point because I think the most relevant questions are:
Can Head Coaches get better at being Head Coaches over time; andDo firing teams sometimes get it wrong in the sense that a Head Coach they think is a ‘failure’ goes on to have great success with a subsequent team.
HIstorically, the answer to both of those questions appears to be “Yes”. And there are numerous examples. How prevalent though? I haven’t explored this.
I expanded the question because I think the idea of ‘failing the first time’ is more than a little bit subjective.
Taking the regular season record only (excluding playoffs) of the guys in my list above (during their first head coaching tenure), the results were:
Don Shula (71-23-4, .755)Marty Schottenheimer (44-27, .620)Andy Reid (130-93-1, .580)Pete Carroll (27-21, .562)Dick Vermeil (54-47, .535)Tom Coughlin (68-60, .531)John Fox (73-71, .507)Brandon Staley (24-24, .500)Bill Belichick (36-44, .450)
I think it would be reasonable to think that the worse someone does the first time as a head coach (eg, Josh McDaniels, Raheem Morris), the less likely it is that they will succeed the next time.
It’s up to each of you to decide if Staley’s .500 record (plus the Jags catastrophe) with Justin Herbert as his QB (a massive advantage) and Tom Telesco as a GM (a major disadvantage) was enough of a failure to make it less likely that he would succeed if given another chance.
But you are using such a small sample size here.
First off, Carroll’s first tenure that I was referring to was 6-10, not 27-21.
Beyond that, you are ignoring context. I’m surprised you want to compare these winning percentages as if that is enough for a valid comparison. It’s not. I already posted a lot of context that shows that, and I kept that at a high level… going deeper would just widen the divide.
And beyond that, we are ignoring all of the head coaches who were not good in their first stints and never had a better one. Which makes the overall sample much larger and much less favorable from a predictive standpoint for Staley (or any one-time head coach) having a better second stint.
And beyond all that, you double down here saying the other coaches you named were “failures” in their first stints. They weren’t, other than Carroll. Staley was. Apples and oranges.
For me, it wasn’t Staley’s record that makes me think he won’t succeed in another head coaching job, which is what you focus on here. It was his complete emotional meltdown in the late stage press conferences and his associated emotional immaturity (my perception and characterization). At that point, he just seemed in over his head. Could he learn from that and overcome it? I guess anything is possible.
This is a really interesting conversation that could only happen on Stormcloud (thanks
Kyle DeDiminicantanio !)
What makes a good NFL head coaching candidate?
Previous success predicting future results: One thing I’m pretty sure of it that innovative schemes alone are not enough to win championships. Don Coryell’s offensive schemes were revolutionary. While Don made it to the hall of fame and won lots of games, he never won a conference championship, let alone a SB. Bill Walsh, the Chargers OC under Coryell, took Don’s offensive scheme and his coaching ability and won 3 Super Bowls.
Buddy Ryan’s (Rex’s dad) 46 defense was a strong counter to what Coryell was doing in the passing game. His attacking style, first in Minnesota (as the DL coach) and then Chicago (as DC) brought the SB title to Chicago. The Bears defense led to the 18-1 season and a SB title in 1985. As a head coach, Buddy was 55-55 and 0-3 in the playoffs.
Character: The clichรฉ “the team takes on the personality of the coach” has merit. I think you can see that with the Chargers this year. To win in the NFL, teams need to be resilient in the adversity that every NFL team encounters. It’s pretty clear that Harbaugh’s willing this team to win. A team that views its offensive line as a “weapon,” having bottom-5 players at 4 of the 5 positions has no business winning 11 games. Yet, they’re in the playoffs again and (I think) have a reasonable shot at winning at least 1 playoff game.
Does Staley have that character in him? I didn’t see it in his last 2 years as head coach. The more the pressure mounted, the more he looked like Mike McCoy. Schemes/planning/organization make great coordinators. Character/leadership make great head coaches.
Continuous Improvement: I am interested to see how the Chiefs do going forward. It has to be very difficult to maintain your edge when you have prolonged success. Complacency, on some level, has to come into play. That’s what makes dynasties both impressive and rare.
My opinion is that change is necessary. Football is the ultimate meritocracy. Competition is essential. A measure of insecurity motivates. All levels of the organization should feel this. Players, coaches, staff, scouts, marketing, business operations. Everyone should be pushed to excel.
Do the Chargers have the leadership in place to make difficult decisions and drive continuous improvement? Spanos past history does not give me confidence. Can Harbaugh/Hortiz be leaders of continuous improvement? Maybe, but the loyalty to Roman by Harbaugh and the failure to bring in competition at center are not positive signs.
Conclusion: Good X’s/O’s coaching is a foundation to build a championship team, but is not enough to build a dynasty. Building a winning program requires leaders with character & a bold willingness to make difficult changes and a focus on always improving the team, regardless of past results.
Great post Kev. Agree with all that you’ve written here.
Before I get to the podcast, I’ll just post this here: QB Film Review: Justin Herbertโs arm talent is carrying the Chargers offense
Here is the conclusion:
I like the final sentence, but I don’t see it as realistic. Here are the current MVP odds:
-250: Stafford
+190: Maye
+2500: Allen
+5000: Lawrence
+10000: Herbert, Darnold, Caleb Williams
All of these QBs could get their teams to 13 or 14 wins simultaneously, since none of their teams play each other in the final two weeks. So Herbert probably cannot gain ground there even if he helps the Chargers win out.
Stafford, Allen, Maye, and Lawrence have had statistically superior seasons to Herbert. We know Herbert has dealt with circumstances more challenging than the others, but I don’t see voters putting enough weight into that to actually give Herbert an actual chance.
But I will happily crown Herbert MVP of the AFC West if the Chargers can win the division.
Some All 22 Clips from the Cowboys game that we posted to X
Clip 1:
Clip 2:
Clip 3:
Clip 4:
Clip 5:
Clip 6: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2003287062838120655
Clip 7: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2003251796953956528
Clip 8: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2003295080455815309
Clip 9: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2003310313844932928
Clip 10: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2003319264347054469