We’ve just released Episode 92 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis for Episode 92 is below:
Herbert and the Chargers established a 23-point lead on Sunday at Mile High. Then Nix and the Broncos scored 16 unanswered Q4 points causing panic to a tortured Bolts fan base. Hearteningly, Coach Harbaugh overcame an ‘atrial flutter’ and managed the team to its first victory in Denver since 2018 (and a 3-2 season record). Join us today for a victory night cap and our weekly recap. Don’t miss it!
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Hope you enjoy the episode! Thanks so much for listening 🙂
Alister (@TDU_Alister)
Praising Harbaugh’s special leadership v Denver:
Soma data on where the Chargers Offense ranks compared with the Last 10 Super Winners (Pass Attempts v Rush Attempts splits):
Thoughts? Does it matter?
1. As you pointed out, Herbert’s injury likely skews the data to this point. It almost certainly has resulted in shifting of pass attempts to rush attempts so far.
2. You did not identify the defensive rankings for those SB winning teams, but I assume none of them were as good as #1 in points allowed and #6 in yards allowed, as the Chargers currently are. Having such a strong defense so far may be somewhat circumstantial (see below) but nevertheless supports playing a conservative game plan.
3. Small sample of 5 games also skews the data. For example, pre-Dalton Carolina represents 20% of the sample.
4. Their opponents so far generally have been poor offenses. Here are their opponent ranks in points scored so far: LV 27, CAR 28 (worse vs. Chargers with Young at QB), PIT 21, KC 15, DEN 20. Of course, those ranks reflect having played the Chargers in their small sample so far, so there is an inter-relationship between this point and my second point above. Nevertheless, this has supported the Chargers planning for and sticking with conservative game plans.
5. The Chargers have had a small percentage of plays when trailing so far: 175 plays when leading; 82 plays when tied; 35 plays when trailing. That is less than 12% of their plays to date occurring when trailing. Furthermore, only 3 of those plays occurred with the Chargers trailing by more than 1 score… 1% of the Chargers total plays to date. This data shows that the Chargers really haven’t been forced out of a conservative game plan at all this season.
It will be interesting to revisit this in week 15+, with triple the sample size of games.
I agree with Points 1, 3, 4 & 5 (with the latter two being really clever insights). On Point 2, maybe the SB winners in that list aren’t #1 in points allowed but I would be surprised if most of those Defenses weren’t something like Top 10 in either Points Allowed or EPA/Play. “Defense Wins Championships“.
After posting this, I realised that using ‘total attempts’ data when the Chargers have played a game less than most other opponents instead of pass/run rate data could be viewed as a little ‘click-baity’. Even on a run-rate, I would assume we rank high in rushes and low in passes, but there are other possible reasons for this as you say.
I think the most interesting question is whether it is possible to win a Super Bowl if by Wk 17 they’re still 32nd in Pass Attempts and 8th in Run Attempts with a top-tier Defense. Maybe the answer is ‘yes’ because that will have meant that the Chargers were leading in (and presumably winning) many games? But I think we’ll find the two numbers start to come closer together with Herbert healthier. Roman was saying in the presser that they’ve barely scratched the surface because many of the plays they liked in training camp and were excited about, have been off the call sheet while Herbert has been limited.
So, for now, I agree – I don’t think it matters (at all, really…)
One more quick comment about Mike Williams: I am pretty indifferent about the opportunity. Depending on the cost, adding Mike back to the mix could help both the Chargers and Williams.
At this point in his career, I wonder how much Mike can contribute physically. He’s 30, missed 14 games last year (after missing 4 games in 2022) and still doesn’t seem to be right physically. I also think that WR is not the magic missing piece for the 2024 Chargers offense. A receiving TE (which should be attainable) or an upgrade at center (much more difficult) would help the 2024 Chargers much more than a WR with skills but questionable health.
On the positive side, MWill and Justin have a history together. The Chargers lack of receiving talent and the chemistry with Justin provides Mike with an opportunity to put up statistics that could help him with his next contract. I do not imagine there will be a huge market for Mike, so the Chargers should be able to get Williams for a (very) late round pick.
So, low cost, high upside trade? Sure, why not. Is MWill the difference between a deep playoff run and yet another lost Herbert season? I have serious doubts.
I would never cap the team’s ceiling with a Top 5 Defense + Justin Herbert. That isn’t going to happen every year. If this is that year, I say push that extra chip in because who knows what could happen.
I was thinking today that my feelings about MWill are similar to Bosa. Both are uber-talented, often-injured, older players. Can they move the needle during the regular season? Maybe a bit. Can they be the difference in a playoff game? Absolutely.
I do not want to trade Bosa. I think he can get right by the end of the season and play 20-30 snaps in a playoff game and be dominant. Same with MWill. He tends to show up in big games.
So, keep Bosa, get MWill (for no more than a 6th). Get them right by the playoffs and see what happens.
Another good show guys! The jury is still out for me on this offense. I am not a Roman detractor-don’t care about his reputation-going to judge him on this season alone and I have been mostly ok with the progression of this offense considered in full context.
We have seen first half offensive flashes (Chiefs/Broncos) that excite me in their dynamism and unpredictability but for whatever reason (and I think there are reasons) Roman moves away from what is working in the second half the last three games.
Harbaugh said as much that the injury to Herbert and his lack of mobility coupled with a banged up O line limited the playcalling at times in the Steelers and Chiefs games. I would think most of us here would applaud the soundness of those decisions to protect Herbert for the long haul rather than put him at too much risk. There is an argument he should not have played in the Steelers and Chiefs games which are valid but since he did play I do not mind more conservative playcalling to protect him. The O line play particularly in the Chiefs game was the primary problem in that game not the playcalling IMO. They could not even execute a basic screen pass without a guy in Herbert’s face.
Second, and this is especially true on Sunday. We do not give the defenses they have faced the last three weeks enough credit. All three are very very good. Denver’s defense snuffed out the run late in the game. And if I have a worry it is the ability to close out games with a run heavy attack. This is a key feature of most championship teams and the O line is not up to the challenge against top defenses at this point.
My prediction is the second half points will tick up markedly as they begin to face some average to below average defenses.
I also expect now that Herbert is more mobile and the O line has gotten mostly healthy when they need to score points in the second half they will be able to do so.
With a banged up secondary and a similarly banged up Cardinals defense I expect a completely different game than the last three. Guys will be open. Herbert will throw more than 50% of offensive snaps if they are behind or the game is close. I also expect them to be able to run the ball effectively to close out the game if they have it in hand.
If I were a betting man, I am not, i would bet the over in this one.
Here are some data points on the Cardinals’ Defense:
Allowed 437 total yds v GB
#27 in Points Allowed this season.
#28 in Yards Allowed.
#29 in Rush Yards Allowed.
#32 in Third Down % Allowed (49.3%).
#30 in Pressure %
#31 in Blitz Rate
If our Offense struggles in this one, then perhaps we can start asking some questions. This one should be a victory. They were the least penalised team in the NFL before this week, then gave away 13 penalties v GB (100 yds). 3 Fumbles Lost. Defense jumped offside 3x in Q1. GB led 24-0 lead at half time. Lets get that “W” and start a streak.
And because I like complaining about PFF grading from time to time (even though I generally think they’re very useful as reference point) 😆
Nix avoided a number of sacks, made some great plays with his legs in the second half and hit some chunk plays against soft coverage shells.
I imagine it would be some combination of those various things that have led to the difference in grades. But I still don’t see how you can arrive at a 16 point grade difference between the two. I think most ordinary viewers, and most informed viewers, would say that Herbert played the better game of the two QBs.
Just finished watching….none of my earlier comments have changed.
I think you guys reached a bit to excuse Roman’s second half playcalling. Yes, you recognized the dearth of second half points as concerning. But to point toward the possibility of altitude/shuffling players? No, mates. That in no way fits the Harbaugh tough guys mentality. And I’m not buying into the “don’t show our entire bag of tricks” excuse either. I believe, at least in this game, more of the same first half plays would have resulted in scoring.
Derwin? I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Maybe an extension to lower the cap hits but that’s it, IMO. Now Bosa? Availability is important and he consistently isn’t. Mack is just ageless, apparently. I love the guy.
Bozeman is an issue. I’ll continue to rue the fact that we ignored OC in the draft.
The Cardinals game isn’t really “prime time” as it’s only broadcast on ESPN+. The earlier Monday night game is on ESPN and ABC. I’m trying to figure out if ESPN+ via my Roku will allow me to watch the game on my TV. I’ll pay the $10 if that’s the case. Not watching on my phone.
Oh yeah….I’d definitely give MWill another shot if the price is right.
Hey Buck –
I completely agree with your comment on Roman. I hate that they come out with a great plan that works, then move away from it in the 2nd half. I’m all for making adjustments, but adjust into something that works better.
I thought Bozeman played better, but I’m with you. They should have addressed the center position in the draft and it’s a must address issue this offseason.
Having the game at 9 PM (on a Monday when I have to wake up at 6 AM Tuesday morning) AND having it behind a paywall is bullshit. Can you cast your phone to your Roku? I’ve done that with Redzone and it works pretty well.
The OC issue obviously continues to vex me, particularly seeing Frazier with the Steelers.🤮
Don’t blame you for not agreeing with the Greg Roman excuses. We try to explore different angles and possibilities on the show for the purpose of discussion, and not all of them will be valid.
Personally, I came into this season with some fairly strong views about how a modern-day NFL Offense should be run, and how coaches should approach game management. Neither Harbaugh nor Roman are champions of the type of Offense or game management I had thought works best in the modern NFL. But their successful records precede them. So, even when I see things I don’t like very much, I’m trying really hard not to leap to conclusions and to allow their vision to evolve and grow over time. And honestly, I’ve liked most of what I’ve seen from the All-22. Unlike RkyMntGuy, I will continue to keep an open mind that there are numerous ways to play winning football, much of what I’ve seen from the Chargers this year looks like ‘winning football’ to me. However, the second half execution (and playcalling) will need to improve if the have their sights on January football.
Derwin’s situation will be interesting to monitor if his on-field play continues to be middle of the road. They seem to love him so much as a leader that I could see an extension being given even if his form doesn’t improve very much. But when cheaper guys like Molden, Gilman and AJ Finley are all playing just as well (if not better), Hortiz might have a decent case were he to suggest to Harbaugh that they consider trading him. I hope that he steps up his play and makes this all a moot point. Right now? He’s not playing up to his contract.
Great pod, as always. I appreciate the content! I’ve been crazy-busy, so have not been able to comment much – That said, I do have a few comments:
Offense:
On the defense:
A few other comments:
Looking like we’re going to be arriving in Melbourne on the 24th or 25th (tickets were cheapest on those dates). Planning to stay until Jan 8th.
Let’s touch base closer to your arrival in Melbourne. Andy and I will be keen to catch up for a beer and we will make it happen! Good luck with the long work hours in the meantime.
Thanks as always for these! Haven’t listened yet….the boss isn’t at work today so maybe I’ll take advantage of that and watch this afternoon on the clock. 😁
This article lists the current team stats. The defense is hot!! Can’t begin to express how happy that makes me!!!!
The offense brings me back to earth. I see where Roman can scheme up some well-designed plays. I also have concerns that he doesn’t put together a full game of offensive production and seems to move away from plays that are working. Adjustments on the offensive side of the ball in general are sketchy, IMO.
Here’s where I see the offense failing (and yes, injuries do play some part here).
IOL….I really think Bozeman is the weak link here and affects guard play. Pipkins is…..OK. Zion does much better when next to Slater. I’m not as critical of him as some are and PFF grades, in general, back me up.
WR….I’m just not seeing much separation from this group. Palmer is nearly invisible. QJ has flashes but isn’t consistent. McConkey is really the only one showing out and he can’t do it alone. Do we bring back big Mike? Will Chark’s return change this group measurable?
TE….they’re looking like just guys, no one notable.
More Vidal, please! He can be the RB pass catcher to help out the passing game.
More comments after I watch the podcast. Again….thanks TDU!!
I’ll respond to your comment below, because this initial one resonates with me across all cylinders
Posting the Coach 217;s Film clips from the Broncos game that I thought were important or interesting:
Clip #1 :
Clip #2 :
Clip #3 :
Clip #4 :
Clip #5 :
Clip #6 : https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1846294557304234324
Clip #7 : https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1846310949722132546
Clip #8 : https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1846300836688777426
Clip #9 : https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1846301325723918478
Clip #1 0 : https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1846324394047819858
Clip #1 1 : https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1846325538216091745
Clip #1 2 : https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1846327969616482447
Clip #1 3 : https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1846328814143787513
Clip #1 4 : https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1846330779992768687
Clip #1 5 : https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1846339291506704456