There’s no denying that the Chargers’ passing game has been lackluster so far this season. After a five-game sample, the team has leaned heavily on the running game for some wins, but they’ve also failed to jumpstart the passing game in two losses where some vintage Justin Herbert could have been instrumental in a win.
Justin Herbert is adjusting to a new scheme that hasn’t been very pass-friendly. While it’s tough to place the blame solely on his supporting cast, it’s hard not to imagine what a reunion with one of his former teammates could mean.
Keenan Allen is off the table. There have been rumors of a rule (which I haven’t been able to find—if you can, please post it below) that prevents teams from trading a player back to their team within two years of being traded away. Besides that, he’s building chemistry with his young quarterback, Caleb Williams, who hit him for two touchdowns in their recent win against the Jaguars.
With Davante Adams reuniting with Aaron Rodgers in New York and Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s release from Buffalo, Rodgers might be able to get his entire band back together with Gang Green. Rodgers very publicly threw Mike Williams under the bus for his game-losing interception, leading to Williams being put on the trade block. If the Jets can’t find a trade partner, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them release him outright in favor of a player like MVS, with whom Rodgers has familiarity and chemistry—two things that appear to be missing with Williams.
Salary Implications
Due to Mike Williams’ slow start to the season, he currently has close to no trade value, given his remaining salary obligations. Williams’ $5,000,000 base salary, prorated over the remaining 12 weeks of the season, would result in a $3,333,333 cap charge for his new team. Additionally, he earns $100,000 per game he’s active, considered a “Likely to be Earned” bonus, which must be accounted for on the current-year cap sheet. This additional $1,100,000 brings his total cap hit to $4,433,333.
That’s a steep number for a player who hasn’t produced since his ACL repair.
Should the Jets release Williams outright, he would be available for any team to sign. Since he is a vested veteran with a fully guaranteed base salary, the Jets would be on the hook for that $5,000,000 base salary. However, any contract Williams signs would offset the Jets’ obligations to him. Unless a team is willing to pay more than what the Jets earmarked for Williams, it wouldn’t make sense for him to sign for more than the veteran minimum to help his new team. A comparable situation is the Russell Wilson signing in Pittsburgh. If a team is willing to pay more than the Jets’ current obligations, there would likely be a trade underway. That scenario can effectively be dismissed; if the Jets release Williams, his next team will likely sign him for the veteran minimum.
Upside on the Margins
One of Joe Hortiz’s strengths is his ability to improve his team on the margins. He’s constantly churning the bottom of the roster to find better depth and knows how to manipulate the compensatory pick formula to add late picks to his draft war chest.
The Decision for Joe Hortiz
The upside for acquiring Williams is significant. If Williams and Herbert return to form, with if Williams produced at a 1,000-yard, 12-touchdown prorated pace with the Bolts, Hortiz could let him walk for a 4th-round compensatory pick. Alternatively, if Williams continues his slow pace but progressively gets better through the season without greatly increasing his market value, he could be re-signed without impacting the compensatory pick formula in the next offseason. If he shows flashes of his old ability and Joe, Jim, and Greg believe he could start for the team in 2025 on a reasonable cap hit, that’s a decent win.
Pairing Justin Herbert with a reliable go-to target feels like a no-brainer. They could use a true red-zone threat, and Williams had great chemistry with Herbert during their time together. While Williams would need to learn new terminology under Greg Roman’s scheme, his familiarity with Herbert should more than compensate for that.
The real question for Joe is whether he wants to roll the dice on Williams being released and signing him for pennies, or securing him now to get him in the building sooner, despite the cap hit.
If Joe waits to see how things play out with the Jets, Williams’ cap obligations for his future team will decrease by $377,778 each week he remains in New York. With the trade deadline at the end of Week 9, the total cap obligation will drop to $3,300,000.
What do you think, StormCloud? Should Joe Hortiz make this move now and offer the Jets a 7th for Williams, wait to see if the Jets release him, or avoid Mike Williams altogether?
Would someone wake up Joe Hortiz from hibernation??
His former Ravens just traded for Panthers’ WR Diontae Johnson. Baltimore sending a 2025 fifth-round pick to Carolina for Johnson and a sixth-rounder. A cheap price to pay for the Ravens to add a receiving weapon this offense could really use. Wasn’t Hortiz a good student of Ozzie Newsome & Eric DeCosta, or is he reverted to being schooled by them still?
@tui1hit
I don’t disagree that is a cheap price for Johnson.
But, best case scenario for the Chargers is that they know Johnston and Chark are coming back, giving them an underrated but quality group along with McConkey, Palmer, and Fehoko. Justin is proving he can elevate that group. It may be that Hortiz is focused on other position groups, like (in no particular order) IOL, TE, RB, Edge, IDL.
It would be good if we made some kind of move before the deadline (whether it be WR, TE, DB or OL support). But the price, player and trade terms must be right. Chris Olave or Garrett Wilson are the types of player I’d be interested in (young, potential outside studs with high pedigree from successful college programs). We’ll see what happens soon enough!
I had a moment of clarity when watching what was clearly a war crime that the NFL committed by sending that ugly Pats vs Jags games to my country’s shores: the reunion we should be talking about is Hunter Henry not Mike Williams.
I won’t got over what everyone else has already covered in the problems of Mike W (injury history, system fit, lack of separation) but I can’t watch this offense try to make Dissly into a YAC threat or beg Hayden Hurst to remember the playbook all season long without some means to improve the position. The increased snaps of both Tomlinson and Smartt is a marginal gain but Henry would answer most of the pass game concerns.
His contract isn’t the cheapest but it has levers for manouevre built in and we have more than enough cap space to handle it even if there’s no change leaving it especially as it’s backloaded with a small hit for the remainder of this season. The patriots are building for the future so I don’t see them wanting a premium for him even if he is a major piece of their offense.
My opinion is that WR is down the list on in-season needs for this team. TE, interior OL and possibly RB (if Edwards is not healthy) are all greater needs.
I also question if 30 year old MWill is healthy or could stay healthy for the entire season.
I also agree with Tau’s point below. Who do they release to make room? My guess is Rice, whom they seem to want to protect. Overall, I don’t see the fit.
Tui – I don’t disagree at all brother. A 3rd round pick might be a little steep for me though, and after this season he’ll have 10 accrued seasons so his compensatory pick value will be capped at a 5th. If we were ready to win now, I’d be all over that trade. Given the context of our season however, I think I like Mike at the low number we can get him at, and for little-to-no draft compensation.
@kylededi I agree, Kyle, with the price for Cooper being steep, I was just hoping for a true field stretcher for Justin to throw to and don’t believe MW would be much of an upgrade to what we have at WR with Chark is soon to suit up in Mike’s old spot and roles.
I would only bring him back if the injuries at WR start to pile up and only because of his familiarity with Herbert. Don’t think he brings much to the table at this point and his style of play often results in injuries.
The team is working to establish a new culture and I don’t think Mike Williams fits the culture.
Kyle. Amari Cooper would have been my choice, but it’s too late for that now, who can really stretch the field with better speed and separation than Mike Williams. Such a WR, in addition, can pull the deep safety over to narrow his coverage zone which allows intermediate and deep middle completions more frequently by his fellow receivers. Deep coverage isn’t afraid of MW.
MW can stretch it with his contested catching ability and tight catches, but it can only takes one good outside corner to stick with him in a 50/50 play. QJ is better at the Z spot than would MW of which they tried with him in Kellen Moore’s offense but he was average until he got injured and missed most of the season. I liked MW but I think Herbert made him looked good more than his ability to get open. Herbert never had the opportunity to throw to a player of Amari Cooper’s caliber. It was disappointing to me that it wasn’t the Bolts who ended up with him.
I think by week 9 with more injuries at WR’s, some team other than the Chargers would have offered more than a 7th round for MW.
I think Hortiz can afford to wait and see. The fact is DJ Chark hasn’t played a game yet so we really don’t know if he’s the missing element to access the deeper part of the field.
Who would the Chargers release to make room for Williams? Logically, a WR. Not McConkey or QJ. Presumably not Davis. Presumably not Palmer. So Rice vs. Fehoko? Fehoko has played 122 snaps on offense to 0 for Rice. Fehoko has played 63 snaps on special teams to 7 for Rice. Seems like it should be Rice, hoping to get him to the practice squad.
I like the idea of signing Williams or even trading for him for a 7th if possible. They are paying a lot of cap money for him this year, might as well get something out of it.
Supposing the Chargers did this, and assuming Williams is healthy, that suggests that he, Johnston, and Palmer split the X and Z roles with McConkey taking a largely full-time slot role. That doesn’t seem to leave a role for Chark if/when he gets healthy (barring additional injuries), but I think that’s okay.
This also implies 6 WRs active on gameday, since Fehoko and Davis have special teams roles, and I don’t see any of QJ, McConkey, Williams, or Palmer inactive if healthy.
So far a WR has been inactive in 4 of 5 games (Rice 3 times, Palmer once). Not sure if that would ever create an issue.
I definitely think it would be Rice, and you’re rolling the dice that at this point in the season you’re basically banking on no team being comfortable “on-boarding" a 7th round rookie receiving to their active roster and expect him to learn the playbook, the NFL, and build chemistry with your QB on-the-fly. That’s a big ask.