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Great news, friends. Elijah Molden has been extended, and at a very reasonable number. According to Jordan Schultz, Molden was signed for 3 years, $18.25M. That is pretty fantastic value over a multi-year deal. https://twitter.com/Schultz_Report/status/1892749517629366705 To add some perspective as to why it’s great value, despite me saying on the PowderKeg Podcast that Josh Q and I had him projected at 1 Yr, $4.33M, here is what the algorithm calculated for his projections:
If Elijah’s 2024 season set the pace for three full seasons of comparable performance, he would have been worth around $14M/year (or 5.07% of the cap). Because of his lack of availability in 2022, his actual three-year production put him closer to a 1.57% market share, or $4.32M APY. Even his 2023 season was just worth 1.21%, or $3.08M, according to our algorithm. We manually set Molden’s value between $4-5M for one year because of the lack of historical context to his stats, and the perception of what we believed may be a major injury that would have put teams on pause for a long-term deal. However, no one was more familiar with the status of Molden’s leg than the Chargers medical team. Essentially what we are seeing is the Chargers making an educated gamble that Molden will be back to full strength next season, and are giving him long-term security in exchange for very favorable 3 year contract. Brilliant move by Joe Hortiz.
Per Alister –
https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1892763650584433148
Note – @alisterlloyd was on it first, but we posted at the same time and didn’t want duplicates, and I had some added context so I deleted his post. Love ya Al, you still get credit for breaking it 😉
This is what I had posted in my free agency fan post:
Molden is about to turn 26, so I could see the team signing him to a 3 year contract, especially since Gilman’s contract expires after 2025. He will still be the 3rd safety, which could hold his price down a bit. PFF projects a 1 year, $4.5M contract. I could see a 3 year, $14M contract, with an out for the team after 2 years. I will assume a 2025 cap hit of $3.5M.
Great call on suggesting the three year contract. I just think to lock him down to a three year deal, he needed a little more upside based on how well he performed in 2024. A repeat of this year would have drastically shot his market up, so they needed to meet somewhere in the middle of these valuations – and I think it swayed closer to being a great value for the Bolts.
Great signing, IMO, and deserved. Hortiz hit at least an extra base hit here.
Love the flexibility it gives the current roster and in the draft. One position that won’t require attention there.
This is a fantastic way to kick off our offseason. Molden played great last year and really let Derwin line up all over the field to maximize his talent. This also gives us some flexibility to let Gilman walk after next season to possibly factor in the comp formula as well.
Glad to have him back and contract feels fine. A LOT of contracts are going to be a little higher than everyone’s estimates this year due to the cap increase.
This is terrific news. Having Molden allows the rest of the secondary to play more aggressively bc they know they have reliable backside help. And to know they got him at a comp salary to Rashawn Jenkins makes it seem like a steal.
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