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Good afternoon StormCloud!
Ryan and I got together again last week to go over tape of his favorite IOL targets. Take a look at the video below (you may have to watch on YouTube), and let us know what you think!
Additionally, here is a copy of the slideshow we prepared if you want to read-up on Ryan's notes that way!
Kelly probably goes to the highest bidder.
In other FA IOL news....brutal? I say good!!
@buck-melanoma I didn’t think they were going to get him anyway, and as much as I can see the IOL needs a ton of help, and as much money as Hortiz has at his disposal, I was worried that he was going to tie up $20+/year. Seemed like a good first step in getting to a Telesco-style top heavy roster.
@buck-melanoma It's all good - we want Fries anyway 
And honestly - I wouldn't personally be mad at a Will Hernandez signing either
Yeah, I wasn't on the Trey Smith wagon anyway. I laughed at the "brutal" reaction of the author that wrote that piece. My preference is a cheaper vet...Fries works...and a draftee.
I don't know if it's me morphing into a cranky old man, but reading a headline with the word "Brutal" makes me respect the article (and author) less. It sounds like a headline my 10 year old would write.
A team retaining one of their best O-lineman is not "brutal" news. Mack signing with the Chiefs... Now that might qualify as brutal. Smith staying with the Chiefs was the most likely outcome and should surprise nobody.
@kevdiego the author thought it was "brutal" news for the Chargers that they wouldn't be able to acquire Smith.
I disagree. I think he'd be overpriced.
Completely agree. I don't like the use of "sensational" language to describe mundane and expected news. It numbs us (or at least me) to news that actually might be brutal.
Herbert retiring would be brutal news. A dude on another team staying with that team is not brutal news.
This is probably a better place than the combine thread for this post.
With Smith and Higgins out of consideration, here is my ideal scenario:
- Cut/trade Bosa, Pipkins, Edwards
- Extend Slater
- Re-sign Mack, Ford, Tart, Dobbins, Bozeman, Dye, Heinicke, Scott, Fisk, Smartt, Sarell, Jefferson, Niemann, Stick
- Final 53 man roster spots are not guaranteedd for Fisk, Smartt, Sarell, Jefferson, or Niemann; they have to battle for those spots
- Jefferson probably would not make the initial 53 man roster to avoid guaranteeing his salary for the season, but would be re-signed after being waived
- Stick is planned for the practice squad, not the final 53
- Sign C Kelly, RG Fries, OL Mekari, WR Adams (assuming he is cut), and a veteran starting outside CB
- CB could be Fulton, but there are others I prefer
That puts them going into the draft in need of (in rough priority order):
- Edge - 1st round pick
- TE - a 1a/1b to pair with Dissly; rounds 2-4
- IDL - ideally a strong pass rusher; rounds 2-4
- RB - a 1a/1b to pair with Dobbins; rounds 2-4
- Depth at LB, DB, WR, maybe OL
It is very achievable to fill all of those needs in this draft and very achievable to do all of this with cap room to spare.
That could lead to this roster breakdown:
- Offense (26):
- QB (2) - Herbert, Heinicke (and Stick on practice squad)
- RB (4) - Dobbins, TBD rookie, Vidal, Haskins
- FB (1) - Matlock (ugh)
- WR (6) - Adams, McConkey, Johnston, Rice, TBD rookie, Davis
- TE (4) - Dissly, TBD rookie, Fisk, Smartt
- OL (9) - LT Slater, LG Mekari/Johnson, C Kelly, RG Fries, RT Alt, G Mekari/Johnson, C Bozeman, OL Salyer, OT Sarell/TBD rookie
- Bozeman is quality IOL backup and provides insurance against Kelly injury
- Mekari and Zion battle for LG starting spot, and the loser becomes top backup G
- OL benefits from chemistry Kelly and Fries already have together
- Defense (24):
- Edge (4) - Mack, TBD rookie (1st rounder so should be quality starter), Tuli, Dupree
- IDL (5) - Ford, Tart, TBD rookie, Ogbonnia, Eboigbe
- LB (5) - Henley, Colson, Dye, Niemann/TBD rookie, TBD rookie
- CB (6) - TBD veteran free agent, Still, Hart, Leonard, Taylor, TBD rookie
- S (4) - James, Gilman, Molden, Jefferson
- Special Teams (3):
- PK (1) - Dicker
- P (1) - Scott
- LS (1) - Harris
On offense, this improves OL, passing game, and running game. On defense, this could improve the pass rush while maintaining strong run defense and coverage.
That is a contending roster if Hortiz drafts well and they stay reasonably healthy.
Good analysis. A few principles I think the Chargers need to follow to have a successful off-season:
- Having a quality center will significantly improve guard play. While there were instances of Zion and Bozeman getting beat with superior power and technique, they more frequently lost due to being out of position or missing stunts. This happened in the first and last games of the season. Their inability to fix the mental mistakes was so damn frustrating. Bozeman cannot be the plan at center.
- By most accounts, this draft class is deep at IDL and RB. The Chargers need to take advantage of that depth and stack talent at both positions. I would not be opposed to going IDL day 2 (or even day 1, depending on how the draft falls), then double-dipping again on day 3.
- Trey Pipkins is not a solution at anything other than swing tackle. The Chargers cannot/should not pay their swing tackle $9.25M
A few other thoughts:
- I'm excited to see what year 2 of Ben Herbert looks like
- If Bosa is on the team, can he get back to playing at an elite level AND stay on the field? Joey's first and last games were very good and he managed to play in the majority of the games last season
- What can Herbert do with Tyler McLellan? Dude is 6'8", 355 lbs. After watching the Eagles dominate the Chiefs at the LOS and understanding how Harbaugh wants to play, I think dudes like this are essential to the style of football the Chargers want to play
- The Chargers need to upgrade at TE, RB and WR in either FA or the draft. With limited options in FA, at least two of these needs should come via the draft.
- I like Adams and would be very excited to see him on the Chargers. I do think a more "Charger" type move would be to sign Cooper on a "prove it" deal rather than breaking the bank on Adams.
@kevdiego Regarding Bosa, he hasn't been close to elite since 2021. That was a long time ago. IMO he most likely will never again get close to that level on a sustained basis. I really hope the team takes the opportunity to move on from him this offseason. We will probably know in less than two weeks, since his roster bonus of ~$12.4M is due on 3/12/2025.
You're probably right and I completely agree that the Chargers cannot allocate $36.5M of cap space to Joey.
I thought Bosa looked really good early in the season (before getting hurt) and was steadily getting better at the end of the season. Not elite, but improving (and mostly available).
Joey just turned 30. Lots of edge players are effective into their mid-30s. If Herbert can get Bosa's body right and the Chargers can renegotiate his contract, then there's a world where Joey could be part of the solution in 2025.
@kevdiego I just don't think he can possibly deliver value commensurate with what I anticipate he would require in salary.
Last year, he took a $7M pay cut Doing that this year would leave his cap hit at ~$29.5M. I realize that ~$11.1M is locked in, but IMO the team cannot afford to pay him another $18M+ above that. I wouldn't pay him anything close to that.
I haven't studied the OverTheCap positional value methodology closely, and I assume it is likely imperfect, like most advanced valuation metrics (e.g., PFF grades, PFR Approximate Value). Still, consider:
- It valued Bosa's 2024 positional value at $3.208M, which ranked #20 on the Chargers and #67 among Edge players.
- It valued Bosa's Value Over APY (positional value minus APY) at -$16.972M, which ranked last (#67) on the Chargers team and #200 out of 201 Edge players.
@tau837 I agree about Joey. He's just not able to deliver commensurate with that price tag.
In a recent interview with Hortiz and Harbaugh....maybe with Pat McAfee at the Combine?....Harbaugh said the best ability is availability. Joey delivered much better on that front in 2024 but he's now 30 with an extensive history of injury/unavailability. I, like you, just don't see him figuring into a successful roster build.
The article has our target as Kelly, which I'm good with. It has the Falcons targeting Mack, which I hate.
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