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So let’s continue the green light/red light game from the TDU round table last Saturday (thanks to all who made this happen!). It’s just been announced that Myles Garrett wants outta Cleveland. The article below lists the Chargers as one of ten attractive landing spots and the possible trade scenarios to land him. Would you act on the proposed deal? Proffer another scenario? Red light?
I’d green light this one, or something close to it. Garrett, IMO, is another Khalil Mack level of professional with the benefit of being nearly 5 yrs younger. Yes, it’s a lot of draft capital but now is the time to consider the big splash for someone like Garrett. We can still find a TE or IOL/IDL with our 2nd rounder, RB(s) in later rounds, look to bolster depth with other picks, and continue to be a player in free agency. We have cap space.
Bye Joey, hello Myles.
Red Light. This team has a ton of holes to fill and needs the cap space and the draft picks to find long term quality starters. If this trade was proposed next year when the roster, IMO, will be more centered on finishing pieces, it would be a stronger option. Factor in that this trade will probably take 2 or 3 1st Rd picks and possibly other rounds and I am really out.
@evolz3737 I hear ya, and I share to some degree that mindset. I just find the opportunity to have another mentor and stellar performer step in as Mack is winding down terribly intriguing and attractive. But yeah, the draft capital does give me pause, just not a full on red light pause and I wasn’t gonna wuss out with a yellow light….lol.
@buck-melanoma Love that you’re continuing the ‘red light, green light’ segment in this forum! I have a few more written down that I didn’t get to on the show and can share when I’m back at my computer.
On a Myles Garrett trade, the complicating factors to me are:
- Bosa can’t really be used as a trade chip because of the way his contract his structured + the Browns have a cap predicament on their hands.
- Trading Garrett doesn’t generate cap relief for the Browns so to make a deal attractive would require generous draft capital.
- The Chargers have pick 22 this year and future picks (which, with Harbaugh as Head Coach, are unlikely to be high draft picks) to offer the Browns. I’m sure other teams could offer a more attractive deal from a pick perspective.
Garrett’s desire to play for a contender helps the Chargers in any trade discussions. Maybe there’s a chance it happens. If it did, you would not hear me complaining. There are other ways to fill the holes @erick-v has referred to above.
The future of the Edge position is currently a hole that Garrett’s arrival would fill for the foreseeable future. He’s a generational player. I’d think carefully before red-lighting this one, even if it costs two first round picks (likely both to be Pick 22 or later) + something else.
@alisterlloyd It’s a question of opportunity cost. If scenario 1 is to release Bosa, and scenario 2 is to trade for Garrett and include Bosa in the trade or release him, the high level differences are these:
- Pro: Chargers have Garrett
- Con: Chargers have to pay Bosa’s dead cap plus Garrett’s high cap contract figure
- Con: Chargers have to trade draft capital, likely significant premium draft capital, to acquire Garrett
- Con: The opportunity cost of using so much draft + cap space capital on one player
The cons outweigh the pros here IMO, and I don’t think it is particularly close. You can think of it along the lines of where the team should outlay its substantial capital (cap + draft picks)… they could give up substantial draft capital and cap space for Garrett, or alternatively could draft players and use that cap space on other internal/external free agents. IMO it is obvious that the team is better off with, say, G Smith + WR Higgins + not trading any premium draft picks vs. Edge Garrett. Or say it’s IDL Ford + G Smith + not trading any premium draft picks. Or any derivation… I think the non-Garrett side will always win.
@tau837 I would amend the Pro to ‘Chargers have Garrett (arguably the best Defensive player in the NFL 😋)’ but your point is otherwise taken.
Help a brother out, if Garrett gets traded to the Chargers, what would the cap hit be for the Chargers in each of years 2025-2027, assuming no extension is required:
I understand it as Cleveland would eat most of it, and the acquiring team would get just the base salaries for 2025 and 2026. Those obviously look compelling. I guess a reasonable question is whether or not Garrett would support a trade without a contract extension.
I want to note, given the apparently favorable cap terms for an acquiring team, I don’t desire the Chargers to even consider trading for Garrett. I expect the price will be too steep for my liking.
@tau837 You can probably assume that the favourable cap terms would increase the “purchase price”, but if Garrett would support a trade without an extension I think the favourable cap terms are a relevant factor when deciding whether it’s a sensible move.
Suddenly, it’s not a matter of losing draft picks + all the free agents you could otherwise have brought in for the same price. It’s less about the forgone free agents, and more about the draft picks (admittedly along with the cheap contracts they come with). That being the case, the scales are more evenly balanced:
- The chances that multiple 21yo draft picks will bust or get injured v the chances that Garrett will bust or get injured
- The traded draft picks will be at the back end of Rnd 1 in 2025, and likely at the back end of each round in future years (inherently less valuable).
It’s certainly worth thinking about IMO. Maybe, like you, they don’t think it’s close to worth it. Or maybe, they’ve seen Minter take cheaper secondary players and extract value, and think doing that plus trading for Garrett is a viable pathway to defensive dominance.
@alisterlloyd I just posted something similar to this in another thread.
The Chargers should be able to draft a 2025 starting player on offense or defense with both its 1st and 2nd round picks this year. That makes those premium picks IMO.
I’m skeptical the Chargers could get Garrett for just their 2025 1st and 2nd round picks, but let’s say they could.
I don’t think it is logical to assume Garrett will play the next 2 seasons under his current contract with no contract extension.
- His contract is currently underpaying him relative to his performance and the Edge market.
- He will be 31 when he stands to become a free agent after the 2026 season.
- Under his current contract, he is due option bonuses in 2025 and 2026. While they are set to be amortized over 5 years, including 3-4 void years, his team is going to be paying him ~$20M in each of the 2025 and 2026 seasons, so those bonuses would have to be part of the calculus of a contract extension
- I have to assume he would require a multi-year extension that will pay him ~$30M/year. His 2025 cap hit may be lower than the average, but I would expect it to be $15M+ and perhaps more likely $20M+ (to avoid too much backloading creating future cap issues).
For the amount of cap space I assume Garrett would require, they could sign a premium free agent who would start on offense or defense. Maybe two starters.
So I look at acquiring Garrett via trade as trading 3-4 starters for Garrett. IMO he isn’t worth that, and it’s not close.
Here is an example based on a mock draft podcast the Guilty As Charged guys did recently:
- 1st round pick – TE Colston Loveland – would be TE1 for Chargers
- 2nd round pick – IDL Derrick Harmon – would be top IDL for Chargers
- Free agent – WR Tee Higgins – I have already posted about what a great signing he would be for the Chargers, and I projected him at a 2025 cap hit of $19M in my recent free agents post
The Chargers might not choose Loveland or Harmon at those draft spots, but they are representative of the talent level that would be given up. And they might not sign Higgins, but just substitute in any true premium free agent they might sign, e.g., G Trey Smith.
It’s hard for me to believe the Chargers would give that up for Garrett. I wouldn’t.
@tau837 Tau you pretty much summed up in detail everything I was thinking when I red lighted it in my comment. As I said if this were next season, I would probably have an appetite for it because I view ‘26 on to be “win now” mode.
@evolz3737 So looking over all of this, something TDU brought up about the Browns Cap Space stood out to me: Adding high 2025 draft picks doesn’t really help their cap problem either because its such a mess so perhaps a Post-Draft trade (Post June 1st) trade could be in order as well and doesn’t have to be for MG.
Denzel Ward is under contract for the next 3 seasons and using future picks might be a way of finding a high end CB for the DB room, same with trading for David Njoku (1 year left)
@duck07 Hey Duck, Jason Fitz actually wrote about this very thing your talking about here:
https://overthecap.com/the-salary-cap-impact-of-trading-myles-garrett
You’re correct, if they can’t get Garrett to restructure his deal, they may have to wait until the summer to trade him, and grab capital in the 2026 draft.
I don’t think there’s the same precedence for a post-draft trade being executed in spring, the way teams sometime have a verbal agreement on a trade in the offseason and execute it when the league year starts. It would likely just be a deal that gets done in the summer.
This is the type of conversation I’m hoping to stimulate. Thanks for joining in.
I’m still leaning green light. Go big or go home. We’ve been going home by going big in stupid ways. Maybe it’s time to do something different. I see Garrett as an offense wrecker and another Mack type. There’s not one of those in this draft.
Maybe the cost will be prohibitive and I’ll move to the red light side of the aisle….but I sure as hell hope all due diligence is performed first.
@buck-melanoma Buck, Don’t you feel that a move this big at this time throws a wrench into the roster building that Harbaugh and Hortiz have envisioned? Especially after having such constraints last year, divesting as much premium capital as it would take for one player would delay the roster being more complete for at least another year if not more with multiple years without a #1 pick. I just think the timing is off from where we are as a roster now to what the vision is for it in the near future.
@evolz3737 if it only involves Bosa and 2025 picks, no. I wouldn’t be willing to part with 2026 picks or anything more than what was outlined in the article I referenced.
I watch Garrett wreak havoc on QBs regularly. Imagine the nightmares he could help create for Mahomes. Imagine having the mentor to continue the leadership Mack provides as he is moving toward retirement.
Maybe I’m way off base but I want this explored fully.
Let me be clear….any deal that required 2 firsts or even 2026 draft capital (unless perhaps late round) would move a deal for Garrett into the red light zone. The initial article I posted did neither but instead included Bosa. That may well be insufficient.
@buck-melanoma I think it’s less about Bosa being insufficient and more that Cleveland can’t afford it! They’re $30m over the cap. Trading away Garrett actually loses them money against the cap, and bringing in Bosa would put them even more over the cap. So I think they’re gonna want picks, picks and more picks if they are to trade away Garrett. Something to make the cap pain worth it.
@alisterlloyd fair point. And @tau837 I always defer to you on the salary numbers. Your point is well made too. 🙂
I guess my dream of Garrett in bolts is just that. 🫤
@buck-melanoma I would be interested in Garrett if he costs what you suggest. I just think he’s gonna cost a chunk more.
@bolt_dk you’re probably right and it would be foolishness, at this point of roster building, to expend too much capital on any one player.
Sigh….
@buck-melanoma It we be amazing to see Garrett get after Mahomes twice a year! Let’s see what happens 🙂
Boy the speculative BS is flying off the shelves now….I’m red lighting this one, not because of the player/fit but because of cost and I think Mack will be back. AND because I think it’s just click bait.
@buck-melanoma Its crazy talk speculation time in NFL media land I guess. It’s post Super Bowl and not quite combine and pre draft time yet so the clickbait dominates
Here’s a name I hadn’t heard connected with the Chargers. Might be just this one guy’s take. I’d green light exploring it. Wouldn’t change my draft strategy and he may well want too much money.
As always, compensation is the caveat but I’d green light at least a 1 year deal, perhaps 3 with an out. Adams can still produce at a fairly high level with a qb like Herbert.
https://boltbeat.com/ny-jets-release-davante-adams-join-chargers
@buck-melanoma I would be in favor of signing him as well. I would expect to see something like a 3 year deal that is in effect only a 2 year deal.
@buck-melanoma My guess is Adams will be looking for 4 years as this will be his last contract. That’d be too much for me, but 3 with a rip cord after 2 would be fine. He’s not what he once was, but he’s still got some juice. It’d take heat off McConkey and maybe light a fire under QJ. And it’d give the inevitable rookie—and maybe Brendan Rice—a little more time to develop. Metcalf would offer similar.
Welp, it seemed inevitable, but it’s still pretty sad. So long to the last San Diego Charger. Best of luck, Joey. Thanks for the years. Stay healthy.
@smith when viewed from this nostalgic POV, yes. Otherwise? I’m not sad about it. I wish Bosa well.
@buck-melanoma It’s a bittersweet situation for me. Bosa was my favorite player since he was drafted. At that point he was the first “Elite” talent the team had drafted since LT. He was really saddled with some horrendous coaching and bad teams for most of his tenure, which is why it is sad that he had to go just as Spanos finally spent some $ on the facilities and organization and hired Harbaugh. Injuries really sapped him of some DPOY seasons. He has that kind of talent, and the guy played through a bunch of other injuries at less than 100%. Nobody that saw him play when he was really healthy could deny that he was elite. Would love to see #97 in the Chargers Ring of Honor one day. I will miss the Big Bear.
@evolz3737 I understand and empathize with your feelings, my friend. I do hope Joey finds a team that helps him achieve further success. As Tau said, I’m glad they let him go now in order to pursue that.
It was likely going to happen anyway, but I think Harbaugh dropped a big tell the other day with Pat McAfee when he said the best ability is availability. Joey struggled in that area.
Harbaugh was brought in to create a culture. I think that’s what he’s doing and I don’t think that, for whatever reason, Joey and his price tag fit into it.
@buck-melanoma True. The way they are building the team going forward, I think only the top players in their prime or playing at an extremely high level will be paid top of market (Herb, Derwin). Even Mack would not have been retained at Joey’s cost, and from all accounts every one in that building reveres him. No matter who the player is, there’s always a cost that outweighs the production no matter the talent. Joey was in a weird spot with his age, injuries and $. If this were 2 years ago, extending him and lowering his cap hit would have been a no brainer, but it doesn’t make sense now. There’s always a chance Mack leaves also. It’s just the price of doing business. It sucks, but its a hard, cold reality.
@evolz3737 yep. We’re passionate….”fan”atics. Most of us here can temper that passion with the business realities. And following those realities will hopefully lead to building a team that brings us all what we want….a championship.
I know I’ve bagged on Joey quite a bit but I will miss seeing #97 out there.
@buck-melanoma I’ll have a long form update on Bosa’s release… tried to get it out before baby time, but I’m being summoned.
Good things to come. It was the right decision, and who knows… he could still be back on a cheaper contract.
IT’S ALMOST TIME TO GO SHOPPING!
I’m glad they did the right thing and released him.
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