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Good afternoon StormCloud!
After a great time with the Thunder Down Under boys, Ryan and I are back to podcasting.
We took some time because we kept thinking our branding kit was coming "right around the corner," but we didn't end up getting everything until late December. A key component we were waiting on was graphics Ryan can use for drawing up schemes and plays on a branded kit. We're both suckers for retro-style gaming (and specifically fans of the Retro Bowl mobile games), so we built our theme around that, as you can see below:
We received some avatars for Ryan and myself, Jim, and generic player avatars to use on these fields to display schemes and plays Ryan is coaching us through.
Hopefully while staying informative, this helps the videos and posts carry a lighthearted and fun component to them! It will still take a while for us to figure out how to get them going, though!
So, there's the quick update! Thank you for your patience with everything... now, back to previewing the Chargers 2025 free agency!
2025 Free Agency Preview
Here is the video component of the preview, with a written piece below:
Last year, I mentioned that the 2025 offseason may be a year that Joe Hortiz completely disregards compensatory picks, and loads up on UFA's since he'll have the cap flexibility to do so. However, I still wanted to gear our preview using the approach I believe Joe and other GM's that pay attention to compensatory picks would follow.
First off, let's revisit last year's cancellation chart:
2024's Cancellation Chart and Free Agency Decisions
The only CFA (compensatory free agent) Joe Hortiz signed right away was Gus Edwards.
Alohi Gilman was given time to explore his market, but was extended on the first day of the legal tampering period for a $5.5M APY contract. Alohi's departure would have contributed another 6th round pick for the Chargers, and Joe may have decided that a 6th just wasn't enough to justify replacing a solid starter on the rise. Gilman shared after his signing that he had "2 Years, $11 million" written on a vision board in his home since the start of the 2024 season, so it's curious to wonder if the two had been far apart in price, or if Joe Hortiz actually believed Alohi might fetch a bigger bag and moved to sign him when the market wasn't there.
The timing of some of the outgoing UFA's may have had an influence on the Chargers signing Kristian Fulton. Many thought that Michael Davis, Kenneth Murray and Austin Johnson would not sign contracts in the compensatory range. However, five outgoing Chargers signed deals relatively quickly in free agency at figures that were compensation-worthy, so Joe Hortiz had some flexibility to sign Kristian Fulton a couple weeks after free agency began. The opportunity cost was only a 2025 7th round pick for a player that on a one year deal would likely to boost his value and net a great pick the following year... and Hortiz could still project a surplus of three compensatory picks for the 2025 draft.
The above chart has since been updated on OverTheCap.com, and with Austin Ekeler hitting some incentives, and additional contracts coming into play pushed Kenneth Murray's comp pick into the 6th round range, the Chargers are projected to get three 6th round picks.
Here's how Joe Hortiz might take a similar approach this year:
2025 Outgoing LAC UFA Class
Here are the players departing the Chargers that are likely to be within reach of a compensatory pick (players just outside of the range are listed in case they surprise us):
- Taylor Heinicke
- J.K. Dobbins
- Khalil Mack
- Teair tart
- Poona Ford
- Asante Samuel Jr.
- Bradley Bozeman
- Kristian Fulton
- Morgan Fox
- Josh Palmer
- D.J. Chark
- Elijah Molden
- Denzel Perryman
The "Gotta-Have" UFAs
First, Hortiz should go after the "must-signs," even if we risk overpaying the market to retain them before free agency. Ryan's two "must signs," and their contract projections based on the work Josh Queipo and I did at https://joshqueipo.substack.com/ , are as follows:
- Khalil Mack: $22.5M/Yr, 2 years
- Poona Ford, $6.5M/Yr, 3 years
The Guys to Bring Back at the Right Price
These players should be allowed to speak to other teams during the tampering period, because their is certainly a chance of an overpay by a team desperate for a starter at their given position.
- Taylor Heinicke, $6.67M/Yr, 2 Years
- J.K. Dobbins, $5M/Yr, 2 Years
- Teair Tart, $4.33M/Yr, 3 Years
- Elijah Molden, $4.33M/Y, 1 Year
- Denzel Perryman, $3M/1 Year
Any of these players could get paid more than these figures, but Joe will likely let them walk if they jump an entire compensatory round in price (for Taylor, over $9M/year, for the rest, around $6M).
Guys to Let Walk (Unless the Market is Silent!)
These guys will likely be allowed to test the market, and encouraged to sign elsewhere if they are offered their projections:
- Asante Samuel Jr: $13.33M/Yr, 3 Years
- Bradley Bozeman, $5.25M, 1 Year
- Kristian Fulton, $5.85M/Yr, 2 Years
- Morgan Fox, $4.15M, 1 Year
- Josh Palmer, $3M, 1 Year
- D.J. Chark, $2.5M, 1 Year
Assuming the players in the top two categories are retained, and the last category walks a their given prices, here is what the start of the Chargers cancellation chart should look like (FA Budget does not include moves yet to made):
How Might This Influence Free Agency?
Joe Hortiz knows he is going to lose Asante Samuel's 4th, as he will likely sign at least one "splash" player. What gets interesting is the Chargers only having three compensatory eligible players lined up after him, unless Palmer and Chark break their projections. Heinicke would provide a decent pick if they decide to move on from him as their backup, but the Bolts would certainly have to bring in a capable backup to replace him, as Easton Stick has shown he is not it.
I would anticipate Joe tries to hang onto two compensatory picks, so in the first week I would expect one or two big signings, and a cluster of non-CFA signings (players that were cut, or players making sub-$3M/Yr contracts). Since one large signing doesn't cancel out multiple smaller signings, I would guess that these two signings will be larger in APY... two immediate impact starters, perhaps at TE, WR, C, G, or EDGE.
There will likely be a CFA or two that Joe tracks in free agency and ends up signing if someone like Palmer, Chark, or Heinicke signs elsewhere for an eligible contract (or if any players we project to return do not).
As such, Ryan and I plan on following up with the two free agent signings we believe Joe should prioritize, which he should track and jump on if the circumstances are right, and which non-CFA signings would make sense to help round out the roster before the draft comes.
Thanks for reading everyone! Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Love the post. However, I think you guys are off on some stuff here.
Biggest issue is you saying they should let Bozeman walk. According to the Guilty As Charged podcast guys, there are only two free agent centers who fit Roman's scheme: Bozeman and Ryan Kelly. They can't go into the draft with no center capable of performing in the offense. Believe me, I didn't love Bozeman's performance, but below average is better than nothing. This shouldn't be a big deal, since he should be able to be signed to a veteran minimum contract or close to it.
If the Chargers release or trade Bosa, Pipkins, and Edwards, as I expect, they will have more than $90M to spend in cap space above and beyond their draft picks. In that kind of scenario, I don't see the right approach as worrying about comp picks. They need to go out and aggressively sign both internal and external free agents, understanding that 2026 will not be a year with significant comp picks. It's as simple as that IMO. They need to expend their combined salary cap and draft capital on improving the roster to the max extent possible in 2025 to build a division contender.
@tau837 Haven't watched Kyle and Ryan's video yet but I agree with your second paragraph here. If Hortiz can manage the offseason in a way that yields comp picks, that's commendable and no doubt a philosophical goal of his. That doesn't mean though that it's the goal every year; and with a surfeit of cap space, I agree it shouldn't be much of a consideration this offseason.
@tau837 Agreed. I don’t see how they let Bozeman walk unless he gets blown out of the water with a contract and like you said, there don’t look to be many FA that will be available or fit the scheme. I would be shocked if we left the cupboard bare at C going into FA and the draft.
On another note, I wonder what the market on Gesicki would be? I’m thinking 2yr/5.5 gets it done and he would be a good insurance policy in case the board doesn’t fall right in the draft for us to grab a TE. Even if we did, that would add 2 pass catching TE to the room and leave Fisk/Smartt battling for TE4. The other could go to the PS.
We actually feel the same way about Bozeman- but at the contract projection of over $5M, we'd let him walk.
If the number is closer to the fringes of a compensatory pick, I'm keeping him ($3M). That said - he was the starting center for a playoff team. The $5M number surprised me when I first saw it, but I'm buying it a little more after seeing that he was healthy the whole season, and that the free agent market is pretty low on centers.
@tau837 yet you unequivocally red light pursuing Myles Garrett.
OK.
Thx for bringing this back, Kyle and Ryan.
@buck-melanoma Might be because you use multiple future draft picks on one guy instead of multiple first round picks and more high caliber FA's as Tau stated earlier:
IMO it is obvious that the team is better off with, say, G Smith + WR Higgins + not trading any premium draft picks vs. Edge Garrett. Or say it's IDL Ford + G Smith + not trading any premium draft picks. Or any derivation... I think the non-Garrett side will always win.
Not in the article I referenced it didn't. I don't consider 2025 "future" draft picks. That's here. And no, I wouldn't offer 2026 picks unless they were late day. I want the due diligence done. If it's too expensive, OK. But Garrett is a PROVEN generational talent and game wrecker.
@buck-melanoma My post that is quoted above didn't say future draft picks, it said premium draft picks. The Chargers should be able to draft a 2025 starting player on offense or defense with both its 1st and 2nd round picks this year. That makes those premium picks IMO.
For the amount of cap space Garrett would require (currently ~$20M in 2025 and 2026), they could sign a premium free agent who would start on offense or defense, maybe two starters.
So I look at acquiring Garrett via trade as trading 3-4 starters for Garrett. IMO he isn't worth that, and it's not close.
Here is an example based on a mock draft podcast the Guilty As Charged guys did recently:
- 1st round pick - TE Colston Loveland - would be TE1 for Chargers
- 2nd round pick - IDL Derrick Harmon - would be top IDL for Chargers
- Free agent - WR Tee Higgins - would be WR1a X WR to McConkey's 1b slot WR for Chargers, and I projected his 2025 cap hit to be $19M in my recent free agents post
Would you really give that up for Garrett? He isn't close to worth that IMO.
The Chargers might not choose Loveland or Harmon at those draft spots, but they are representative of the talent level that would be given up. And they might not sign Higgins, but just substitute in any true premium free agent they might sign, e.g., G Trey Smith.
Chargers get Myles Garrett, #33, #67, #94
Browns gets Joey Bosa (Chargers pay X salary), #22, #55, #86, #124
Browns get a cheaper Bosa to keep someone opposite Abdul Carter to help him thrive and learn some veteran things from and then move up in the draft by swapping picks with the Chargers starting with our 1st. If they want Tuli then the draft cost goes down.
Chargers get a real game-wrecker while essentially sliding back in the draft and absorbing some of their Cap Space for an Edge player they couldn't sign or draft. They'd still have the Cap Space to also sign Trey Smith and Tee Higgins.
There's a way, its just whether or not its the best deal for the Browns to take. I keep joking that anybody that will absorb Watson's contract gets Garrett for that alone, lol.
@duck07 If the Browns accepted this their whole FO should be fired. If they are going to trade a generational franchise player, they aren't taking an aging Edge and pick swaps. This would actually be a way for them to reset the franchise and transition away from the Watson era. This is why they are not swapping anything. They are adding as much premium capital as possible. Plus, do you think Bosa, who with his injury history has probably contemplated retirement, is going to agree to play in Cleveland on a rebuilding team? He would probably just retire leaving no tangible player asset for the Browns in a trade. Garrett would be awesome to add, but I think the cost to do so is to prohibitive to the team and roster building Hortiz and Harbaugh envision. Fun offseason fodder, but not a realistic expectation.
@evolz3737 So far some of the trade packages that I've seen posted nationally for him don't seem like home-run wins for the Browns though either and Joey may like to be back in the state of Ohio again.
It might be a case where Myles Garrett himself threatens to hold out or retire with the Browns too and thus you don't need to hit a home run and instead a solid double is going to do it.
@duck07 Remember, the Browns don't HAVE to trade him. This could also be a ploy for a new contract. If they came to him with a 5yr 150M contract extension with 90M guaranteed, he suddenly might have a change of heart. It's not the NBA where these guys act like assholes and try to be as disruptive as possible to get traded. Has that ever worked in the NFL? How did it fare for Antonio Brown? The Browns can just wait until they get the haul they want, or can extend him and keep him.
@tau837 we'd still have our 2nd in the article I referenced and have cap space to pursue Higgins.
Yes I'd do it. Garrett is a game wrecker.
@buck-melanoma It's not just about cap space to pursue Higgins, he was just an example. The Chargers need to sign at least 17 free agents who will make their final 53 man roster. Devoting cap space to Garrett takes away a sizable amount of cap space otherwise available to do that.
It is Higgins. Or Mack. Or Trey Smith + Ford. Or Ryan Kelly + Ford + Fulton. Etc.
I would be all-in on pursuing Garrett if I had an understanding with him that he wasn't getting a new contract until at least 2026.. and it would be an extension, not a reworking of his current deal.
The edge market is about to have a race to $40M APY, and Garrett's one of the key cogs that could get it there if the Browns were to give him a new deal. Watt and Hutch will play out the 2025 season and if Hutch returns to full form, they could both hop Bosa's $34M APY and get us close to that 40 mark.
So if Garrett was willing to play for his 2 years, $45Mish remaining, I'm all in! That's an insane amount of surplus value.
But - I'm personally not a fan of trade-and-signing... so if he leverages a new deal as well, I'm out.
@tau837 Thanks Tau! I largely agree that there's a strong chance that Hortiz ends up picking up enough CFA's to wash out the formula. I mentioned this in my breakdown last year when we first hired him, and started the article reiterating it. But - I think he's still going to monitor it and it may impact his decision making, especially if guys like Chark and Palmer end up getting more than anticipated (probably a stronger chance for Palmer to do so), or if Heinicke isn't retained. I'd guess we make an early move or two, but then get a little patient after that.
Although we have a ton of cap space, retaining the players we mentioned above and even just one marquee signings quickly eats away at that space. I created quick contracts for the players we suggested retaining above, as well as Tee's contract if he hits the $30M APY mark, and before making any cuts like Bosa and Pipkins, we're already at -$12,775,288 in cap (accounting for inseason budgets, rough rookie pool, ect).
The cap hits I used are as follows:
| Poona Ford | $5,500,000 |
| Taylor Heinicke | $5,500,000 |
| Denzel Perryman | $3,000,000 |
| Elijah Molden | $4,500,000 |
| J.K. Dobbins | $3,500,000 |
| Teair Tart | $3,500,000 |
| Tee Higgins |
$24,500,000 |
| Khalil Mack | $25,872,500 |
They can certainly choose to be more aggressive with their backloading, but with the heavy-hitting contracts the team has coming up, I don't know how aggressively they'd want to backload.
Bosa and Pip are definitely two quick levers they can pull to free to space, but I wouldn't be surprised if Bosa ends up staying for another pay cut. I'm not saying it'll happen - I'm just not ready to assume he's getting cut. He seemed happier than I've seen him in years with Jim as his leader - and it seems like there's an element of "if Mack stays, I want to stay," as with what happened last year.
If Joey drops his roster bonus and moves forward with a fully guaranteed $13M salary... he's probably on pace for what the open market would pay. Dropping Pipkins and Gus would get them close to $22M in spending power... but that's still only leaving us with $7,756,712... which can dry up with only one more move!
Just an example of how quick this money could dry up, and why only signing 2 (maybe three) CFA's could be realistic if they shoot for Higgins and another big name. Add in trade possibilities and attractive cut candidates, that money can go quickly.
Trying to figure out our differences:
I projected releasing Bosa, Pipkins, and Gus. You didn't do that, an obvious significant difference. With those cuts comes ~$14.7M in dead cap, bumping the Chargers total to $18.1M based on my assumptions. But it clears more than $30M in space. Pipkins and Gus are easily replaceable. Bosa isn't easy to replace, but clearing his cap space is more valuable than keeping him IMO.
I ignored Slater's extension, which could lower his cap number, and just assumed he held at the same 2025 cap number. I could have gone lower to generate more space, but stayed conservative.
Like you, I assumed the team signs Higgins, Mack, Ford, Tart, Molden, Dobbins, Heinicke... but for about $20.5M less in 2025 cap hits. I cited other projections for most of those to support my projections. They could get lower than I assumed without much trouble, so I felt I was conservative... until I saw your projections. I could obviously be wrong, but I think you are pretty significantly overestimating.
I also projected signing Trey Smith, Ryan Kelly, Fulton, Scott, Dye, Bozeman, Sarell, Smartt, and Fisk. You projected signing Perryman, and I didn't.
I projected the top 9 draft picks to make the team; I think you are going with the full 10 for now. Not a big difference.
If I understood correctly, you are projecting $7M for in season spending, which is not enough IMO. A full practice squad will likely cost more than $4M, depending on how many veterans (up to 4)... in season activations will likely cost ~$960K, unless they are dramatically reduced. I used to reserve $3M for in-season injury replacements, but initially this offseason I bumped that to $4M. Then I added a $2M reserve for late preseason and/or in-season trades. Plus, constantly churning the bottom of the roster generates some low level dead cap during the season. If you are including all that in your $7M number, it seems short.
Doing the math on my projections, I calculate that there would be $11M still available above and beyond in season spending/reserve and without lowering Slater's cap hit after accounting for the 53 final roster spots I projected. I could have gone further and signed another couple impact veterans to upgrade projected signings/draft picks, and if I did another iteration, I would probably do eactly that.
For example, sign Josh Sweat and, instead of using the 1st round pick at Edge, use it for TE1 Loveland. Then take IDL/RB in 2nd/3rd. Or sign Carlton Davis instead of Fulton. Or any number of other upgrades.
I believe enough in Hortiz and Harbaugh that I believe they can make the right judicious decisions, including big spending decisions. to leverage their unprecedented cap space plus their draft capital to make the 2025 roster a legit division, and thus Super Bowl contender. I'm actually most concerned that they won't spend aggressively enough.
On another note, it would be cool to see a post after free agency comparing the algorithmic contract projections you mentioned with actual contracts, and perhaps how those compare against other projections (e.g., PFF, Spotrac).
Kyle and Ryan I just watched the YouTube video of this and it was great. This offseason roster building hits me right in my football nerd bones. I agree with Ryan on all the players that can be non considered for return and a few that I see a bit differently.
- Molden- I would push him into the tier with Mack and Ford. I think what he added to the defense was imperative to how Minter deployed Derwin. With Gilman entering the last year of his deal, I would like to give Molden a 3yr year deal to keep him in the fold longer. With the injury the is healing from, that could keep the price lower than expected. Especially since he is proven to fit the scheme, why let him walk trying to find someone else who might not be as effective? We saw last season that we need a few more bodies at S, so we are not relying on street FA later in the year playing critical downs. He's not going to break the bank anyway and it gives us more flexibility in the draft to not have S be an absolute position of need. Not sure what you think a 3 year deal would look like for him?
- Perryman- I would consider him ONLY at a team friendly deal. I think what he adds to the team from a physicality and run stopping standpoint is unmatched on the roster. If we did not sign him back, I would expect another similar style of player to be added in the draft or FA. Again, that style of player is an integral cog in the Minter scheme.
- Agree 100% on Poona, but I would also like to give him a 3 year deal to be a stalwart in the middle again, taking away the urgency to "must fill" this position in the draft. I was thinking 3yr/10.5 w/ 5M guaranteed? Another case of he's proven to fit the scheme, so lock him up for at least 2 seasons.
- Dobbins- I would reluctantly pass unless it was another 1yr deal. RB might be the best position group in the draft. I would double dip there and maybe bring in an inexpensive vet (Elijah Mitchell, Khalil Herbert, Kenneth Gainwell, D'Onta Foreman) for the vet leadership role. I would also look to dump Edwards and free up another roster spot in the room. Also, factor in that I think we might have gotten the outlier season on Dobbins health, and passing on him makes more sense.
- Fulton- He is not a true CB1. If he were to come back on a CB2 type contract, I would have him back. Having him as CB2 slots everyone more comfortably IMO. Hart becomes CB3, and with his recent injuries I don't think you can pencil him in as anything more until proven otherwise, even for as great as he looked. Still can be the slot/ sub package CB and Leonard can be CB5/6. Taylor would be my first cut of the off season. The FA CB market has some great options (Davis, Ward, Reed, Jones, Murphy) to sign as CB1 and we can look to the draft for some early day 3 options unless someone falls in our lap sooner. So for me, the room would be CB1/ Fulton/ Hart/ Still/ CB5/ Leonard. That's a solid group, but again we might be priced out of Fulton at CB2 price.
Looking forward for more offseason PK pods. This is the stuff that gets me fired up.
@evolz3737 I haven't watched the podcast yet, but I'm not particularly interested in Perryman. He only played 343 snaps; that is a replaceable number. Also, his reputation is that he is a great run defender, yet he had the worst run defense and tackling PFF grades among all Chargers LBs in 2024. The team needs Colson to step up in 2025.
I agree with you about Ford, Molden, Fulton, and Gus Edwards. I would bring back Dobbins, though.
@tau837 I could see your point on Perryman. In think we need someone to fill the run stopping thumper role at MLB. I saw Colson up close and his body type doesn't seem to fit that mold. Even Henly is more of a complete all around LB rather than that physical downhill enforcer. Maybe we can find that role in FA again, but with Perryman and Dye both expiring we definitely need a few more bodies in that position group.
@tau837 I don't want to relitigate the value of PFF Grades. They have their part to play.
What I'll offer is that from the Chargers football I watched all season (including All-22), I thought Denzel Perryman was our best run defender. Daiyan Henley was pretty good too but had more negatively graded plays for me (where he either played the wrong gap or was washed out by double teams) than Perryman.
I'd go further and say that when Perryman didn't play, the Chargers Run Defense went from solid to poor. I thought he was that important to the Defense and will need to be replaced if he's not signed (either by Colson improving significantly or another run-first veteran being signed).
I'm time-poor at the moment and want to focus most of my time on draft prep, so I haven't worked out the 'with/without Perryman yards per run allowed", but in the games where Perryman got injured early in the game this year or didn't play:
- v Ravens: Chargers allowed 212 yds from 27 carries at 5.7 ypc (Henry went for 140 yds)
- v Falcons: Chargers allowed 116 yds from 37 carries at 3.1 ypc (great performance)
- v Chiefs: Chargers allowed 96 yds from 25 carries at 3.8 ypc (good performance but Henley missing a chance to tackle Mahomes and some ill-time Pacheco runs were significant)
- v Bucs: Chargers allowed 223 yds from 29 carries at 5.7 ypc (Irving went for 117)
- v Broncos (Perryman injured early): Chargers allowed 110 yds from 21 carries at 5.2 ypc.
- v Patriots: Chargers allowed 96 yds from 20 carries at 4.8 ypc.
- v Patriots: Chargers allowed 39 yds from 12 carries at 3.3 ypc (great performance)
- v Texans (WC): Chargers allowed 168 yds from 24 carries at 4.9 ypc (Mixon went for 106).
Qualitatively, I also posted tape during the year when LB play stood out:
- Perryman #1: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1858992899540856891
- Perryman #2: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1858999103994425375
- Perryman #3: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1858999421666742328
- Perryman #4: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1859037340393746746
- Perryman #5: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1859040499493204017
- Perryman #6: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1836185039408963641
- Perryman #7: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851358529812123718
- Colson struggling: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1870569339994415271
I used to think Perryman was no good during his first stint as a Charger, but developed an appreciation for his game this season. Played with tone-setting intensity and his teammates stood that bit taller when he was on the field. I'd be happy for him to return.
@alisterlloyd I appreciate the post and the level of detail. I still stand by my take, however.
Agree no need to litigate PFF grading. But I'm going to take the stance that they would not have graded him at 54.1 on run defense and 29.8 on tackling if he was really great (70s+) at those things. Their methodology has too many checks and balances for me to buy that. I understand that you and others may disagree.
IMO Perryman's 343 snaps on defense are replaceable. Ideally by Colson. When the team drafted Colson, it was to start. Circumstances prevented that in 2024, but that should still be the expectation.
Consider the Colson comparison in 2024, per PFF:
- Perryman (veteran): 154 run defense snaps, 54.1 run defense grade, 22 tackles, 9 assists, 10 missed tackles, 15 stops, 3.6 AVDT
- Colson (rookie): 92 run defense snaps, 54.9 run defense grade, 9 tackles, 6 assists, 0 missed tackles, 8 stops, 2.9 AVDT
Perryman doesn't consistently stay on the field, whether due to health or limitations in his game. Playing him another 343 snaps this season would come at the expense of Colson's growth, and also on a more expensive veteran contract.
I would prefer a different path.
@tau837 All fair enough Tau.
Putting stats to one side, you’re a Chargers fan and watched all the games. What was your impression of Perryman? Did you think there was a difference when he was out there?
In that wild card game, I thought his absence hurt us. But maybe that’s just me.
I hope Colson develops but I thought he was slower than Perryman to react out there all year. The Denver game highlighted it for me multiple times. There was the Kyler Murray scramble TD too. He plays with too high a pad level right now. But he was a rookie and hopefully takes a big leap over the offseason.
@alisterlloyd I think Perryman was better than Colson in 2024, but I also think it was closer than some do. If Colson has a healthy offseason/preseason, I expect he will take a significant step forward in his performance in 2025. In which case, I expect he will close any gap that exists between him and Perryman... or at least close enough that the difference is not worth signing Perryman for more and giving him snaps at the expense of Colson's continued growth.
I should add, Henley should also continue to improve.
It's almost like Perryman is a matchup play. He isn't a difference maker game in, game out. But he is in some games, if he is available. But he hasn't always been available, and he is not a spring chicken.
I would also note that your list of games he missed included 8 games. I don't really want to sign an older veteran who just missed the majority of 8 games when IMO he is replaceable.
As for your list of games:
- v Ravens: Chargers allowed 212 yds from 27 carries at 5.7 ypc (Henry went for 140 yds)
- v Falcons: Chargers allowed 116 yds from 37 carries at 3.1 ypc (great performance)
- v Chiefs: Chargers allowed 96 yds from 25 carries at 3.8 ypc (good performance but Henley missing a chance to tackle Mahomes and some ill-time Pacheco runs were significant)
- v Bucs: Chargers allowed 223 yds from 29 carries at 5.7 ypc (Irving went for 117)
- v Broncos (Perryman injured early): Chargers allowed 110 yds from 21 carries at 5.2 ypc.
- v Patriots: Chargers allowed 96 yds from 20 carries at 4.8 ypc.
- v Patriots: Chargers allowed 39 yds from 12 carries at 3.3 ypc (great performance)
- v Texans (WC): Chargers allowed 168 yds from 24 carries at 4.9 ypc (Mixon went for 106).
You characterized 2 of 8 performances as great. You listed another as good with untimely lapses.
Ignoring those, of the other 5, 2 (BAL, TB) were top 4 rushing offenses. I wouldn't assume their rushing performances were great because Perryman was missing, though he certainly would have helped.
Of the other 3, the Chargers won 2 (DEN, NE) of the 3 games. So they were able to sufficiently make up for Perryman's absence.
I just don't see the value.
@tau837 I'd also be interested to hear @ryanwatkins elaborate on his issues with PFF Grades.
Ryan told us that he once applied to work for PFF, looked through the training, and he had sufficient concerns about their approach that he decided against working there. I'll let him speak for himself though (as the only football coach I know!).
@alisterlloyd I would be interested to hear that also, based on other anecdotes from over the years, like the Bengals OL coach many years back analyzing a season's worth of Bengals OL grades and saying they were wrong on about 12 plays (paraphrasing off the top of my head); Chip Kelly being a critic, then getting an inside look, then investing in the business. I think there are others.
I do not recall any anecdotes about people understanding the methodology and declining a job or choosing to leave PFF due to not believing in it. Not saying it hasn't happened, just not aware of it.
@alisterlloyd Agreed on Perryman. I think his physical presence was missing when he wasn’t in the field. I saw him and Colson up close in NE and Colson looked more like a sub package LB. Perryman looked like a run stuffing MLB. Not saying Colson can’t do it, but he seems more like a 3 down LB and not a run stuffing plugger. Even if Perryman isn’t brought back, I think his style of player needs to be added to the defense. With Dye possibly leaving also we definitely need to add another body or two to the unit.
@evolz3737 Yep and this shouldn't be a surprise for anyone who watched Colson's Michigan tape. He's a modern day player with height and range (but not much sand in the pants), whereas Perryman is a throwback with his stout frame and downhill playing style.
@evolz3737 agree that we need to find another thumper for the LBer unit. Im not sold on bringing back an aging Perryman either. I do believe his type of play has an important place in Minter's defense.
@evolz3737 Great stuff Erick.
Molden - if we could get him at that APY for three years, I'd be all in. However, given how his season ended and that he was traded for a bag of potato chips, he might want to bet on himself on another one-year deal (with a decent raise!)
Our current model has Elijah as making $4.32M/Yr based on his three-year sample, but if we only grade on his platform year, it's $13.93M. If he had hit free agency las year, his market would have been closer to $3M APY based on his first three years in the league.
As such, he might be looking for +10M a year, and I'd bet teams would be willing to come close to that number based on his season... if he hadn't broken his fibula. I think that - paired with this season being an outlier to the rest of his career, make the best solution for all parties to have Elijah take a cheaper one-year deal. $13M APY is a very real possibility if he repeats.
Perryman - You'd consider Perryman at $3,000,000 team-friendly enough though, right? I agree that I wouldn't chase the market if he got more, but I'd pencil him in at $3 mil all day!
Poona - We have him at $6.5M/year for three years in our spreadsheet, but I'd honestly go higher if need be... would chase all the way to $8M. It's the one spot where I'd be OK overpaying what the data shows us to keep the guy that our eyes tell us is worth more.
Dobbins - I think the though for Ryan and I is Dobbins has too high of an upside to pass on, but as you said... there is too much talent in the draft to pass on. We'd let go of Edwards, and let Dobbins back if the money makes sense - $5M APY, two year deal to give him some security, but maybe he like Molden to prefer the decent raise and a chance to prove it once again and get a substantial multi-year raise next year.
Fulton - Just my take, but at the price we suggested I'm OK with Fulton walking. Recurring hamstring issues worry me... and maybe this is homerish, but I love Hart and Still (assuming Hart can protect his head). It seems like we have an edge at identifying talent at this position, so I'm all-for backfilling from the draft or another cut casualty to restock this room.
Posting another pod soon brother! Thanks for checking them out:) Definitely fired up for the offseason
Here's Popper's top 10 free agent targets for the Chargers. Too busy to dig in deep just now but high level thoughts.....
No surprise Higgins and Smith are 1-2. I hafta admit, Smith's SB performance gives me pause to pay him the big bucks it will take. I'm leaning more toward one of the older experienced guys to mentor a drafted stud.
Not too interested in Kelly, tbh. Now Dalman, yes....but I don't think he leaves Atlanta.
Browning wasn't on my radar but interesting idea. I'd still draft an edge but his signing would make it less urgent.
No to bringing MWill back....same for me as Keenan. That's water over the dam IMO. Time to get younger.
Murphy? Sure, I'd kick those tires. You can never have enough good corners.
@buck-melanoma I listen to the Guilty As Charged podcast. One of the hosts is a former OL, so he talks a lot about OL. On two recent episodes, he has said Dalman is not a fit for Roman's offense. The second time was on the recent episode looking at free agent IOL, during which he spent a few minutes explaining. According to him:
- Dalman is not good in a gap scheme and needs to play in a wide zone scheme.
- The main reason Atlanta may let him walk is because they want to incorporate more gap blocking into their offense, and Dalman can't do it.
I'm not saying that podcast or Steven himself is always right about stuff like this, but he was adamant, and he watches a lot of film on players to form his opinions.
As for the rest of the article, some comments:
- Agree with him on Mack, Bosa, Ford, and Tart. Don't agree on Fox. They need to upgrade that position IMO.
- I would be happy with any of these players: Higgins, Smith, Fries, Kelly, Zeitler, Murphy
- I'm not interested in Dalman, Browning, Scherff
- I could see adding Williams back for a cheap contract in a reserve role. Don't really want him as a Higgins consolation prize, counting on him to start and play heavy snaps at X, which seems to be Popper's idea.
@tau837 I'd still take a hard look at Dalman. He certainly seems better at calling blocking assignments and picking up stunts than Bozeman. If the football IQ and athletic ability is there, schemes can be learned. I'm not pushing for Dalman, but in a thin class he's a legitimate consideration.
I haven't paid much attention to Browning tbh. What is your reasoning for saying no?
@buck-melanoma I will agree to disagree on Dalman. Not interested in paying a non-trivial contract to a center who is not already a good fit for the offensive blocking schemes, and I am buying the GAC take on him. If the Chargers or any other team that runs a lot of gap blocking signs him, I'll assume the GAC take is wrong or overblown.
Browning 2024 PFF grades, with ranks among 151 edge payers who played at least 100 defensive snaps:
- Defense: 58.0 (#101)
- Run defense: 43.5 (#143)
- Tackling: 29.5 (#133)
- Pass rush: 76.3 (#24)
- Coverage: 47.7 (#130)
He isn't well rounded at all. Adding him could help the pass rush but would hurt the run defense. I don't see the Chargers accepting that.
Part of this is likely due to the fact that he is listed at 240 pounds, which is at least 25 pounds lighter than most quality edge players.
@buck-melanoma It's not like Dalman hasn't done any gap blocking in his career. It's about 30% of his career run blocking snaps. If he was going to transition into a gap run blocker worthy of the next contract he signs, it almost certainly would have happened by now.
I will agree to disagree with you about it until the market speaks.
@buck-melanoma That is fairly insulting. I reference numbers and PFF grades often. That's not all I referenced here.
I already agreed to disagree with you, but you can now have the last word.
I apologize if that seemed insulting. I believe that results on the field can often outweigh an analyst's numbers.
@tau837 I have no interest in Smith. Whoever signs him is going to end up regretting it
@buck-melanoma 100%. I’ll be very surprised if they don’t draft IOL within the first 3 rounds.
@blue-beers Smith really didn't have a great year, at least by the eyeball test. Then he got absolutely worked, especially in the SB, but the playoffs overall. I just don't think he's worth the money he'll likely be asking.
@buck-melanoma I hear you on the eyeball test. I know you value that more than numbers and grades. But for the record, in the regular season, per PFF:
His pass blocking grade wasn't great, but he allowed 26 pressures and 0 sacks in 708 pass blocking snaps. Compare that to Zion (33 pressures, 5 sacks) and Pipkins (29 pressures, 6 sacks), who both played fewer pass blocking snaps. He would be a significant upgrade.
He was the Chiefs' second best run blocker in both gap and zone plays, behind only C Humphrey.
@tau837 thanks for the comparisons. I'm sure he'd be better than Pipkins but is he enough better than a cheaper stop-gap vet and a draft pick to warrant his likely price tag? And that's not saying I wanna go into 2025 with Pipkins at all.
Zion....I really want him to be better. I think he would be with a better center next to him but that's not the reality right now. That pivot position has got to be upgraded. IMO, even upgrading RG is gonna leave a fair amount of vulnerability inside.
@tau837 He was a very solid player for the Chiefs. However, big FA guard signings (when switching teams) rarely pay off, and in Smith's case in particular I don't think his success will translate to other franchises. I think the Chiefs and Andy Reid got the maximum anyone is going to get out of him, and he still wasn't good enough against top competition. If that's going to be the case, then don't spend big dollars, find someone else whether by draft or FA or both. It's just not worth the big contract.
@blue-beers I hear you, and I'm not specifically advocating for Smith. But the Chargers desperately need an upgrade at RG.
You have posted multiple times that big FA guard signings switching teams rarely pay off. Do you have data to back that, and, if you do, is the sample size meaningful?
@tau837 I think it's pretty meaningful. This is not a comprehensive list, (more from memory) and again this applies mainly to guards who sign big contracts with NEW teams. Guards seem especially sensitive (IMO) to the system they're brought up in and often can't transition well elsewhere. Here goes some examples:
Way back in 2012, Carl Nicks signed a huge contract (might've been the biggest guard contract ever at the time because guards historically were not paid well). He was cut after two disappointing seasons.
The following year it was Andy Levitre who signed at big 5 year deal. Also cut after two mediocre years.
Of course, the Chargers had their own poster child of bad guard signings, Orlando Franklin. Total disaster.
Zane Beadles in 2014 by the Jags. Signed a big deal and cut after a couple mediocre years.
Ben Grubbs signed a huge deal with the Saints. Traded after a couple of mediocre seasons to the Chiefs. They gave him a big deal in conjunction with the trade and then cut him, I believe a year later after disappointing.
In recent years, you have examples of guys like Robert Hunt, Sam Cosmi, Brandon Scherff, Jonah Jackson and Jon Runyan... All of these guys signed big deals and are graded (if you believe PFF) as mediocre to average...Most of them are like in the 30 - 50 best guard range which may not be a total disaster but is certainly not what I want to pay $15M - 20M/season for. There's much better use of that money when you can draft of sign a cheaper vet who can be the "50th best guard" or whatever.
@tau837 I heard Popper say twice that he thinks Fox should come back and I disagreed with him. His play hasn't been standing out as a pass rush IDL. Maybe Popper has a good relationship with him and is trying to float that out there to keep him around? Either way, bringing back almost the entire DL would be foolish. Not that they played terrible, but we need to inject some young talent there going forward and hopefully some more improved play.
Don't be counting on Tee in bolts just yet.
For lack of a better place (and not wanting to start another thread or have this get lost in the Popper Hopper) dropping this article here.
Gonna address some of Popper's 9 point plan.....
#1....yes to cutting Bosa by 3/14. We need to get younger and healthier here. I'll take the 34 yo Mack over Bosa as an available player, locker room leader, and mentor. Fingers crossed we can and do keep Khalil a bit longer.
#2....yes to all within the confines of reasonable compensation. If we were to lose Fox and Dobbins, I'm OK with that. I've covered Mack. Ford and Tart deserve retention if the contracts are reasonable. Same for Molden.
#3....I've soured on Smith given his playoff performances and likely ask for compensation. I think we can find a better valued veteran stopgap to bridge the gap until a drafted young stud is ready.
#4....the center cupboard, both in FA and the draft, is relatively bare. There's been discussion about Dalman's scheme fit and yes, that bears consideration. I'm in the camp that he's a savvy, talented enough player to make the switch. The other option (in my mind) is retain Bozeman for another year and try to trade back up in the second (if Combine performance doesn't propel him into a late 1st position) to snag Zabel. Bozeman is NOT the long term solution.
#5.....I still haven't scouted this guy. Tau provided some stats that aren't exactly inspiring. I'm a yellow in the red light/green light scale on this. I know, weak sauce....lol.
#6....Warren will never see 1.22. Colston may and I won't complain if he's the pick here. If anyone knows what Colston brings to the field, Harbaugh does.
#7....Tre Harris is just one option here. IMO, this position/decision relies heavily on results in free agency.
#8....outside CB does need to be addressed. Is 3.86 too late? I could see double dipping in the draft at CB.
#9....agree. RB class is deep. I'm not in the camp of overspending here. I believe strengthening the IOL and adding late day 2 or day 3 talent will increase productivity in the run game....combined with providing Herbert more productive targets in the passing game.
For some stats/context on available IOL (also Tee Higgins but I consider him likely off the market, especially with the estimated larger than expected cap increase).....
1 - Bosa) Agreed, but if he's willing to "half" his pay again (wipe out his roster bonus), I'd keep him an guarantee it. It's a slight overpay based on his recent and three-year production, but he does still flash the upside and has the chemistry with Mack to make a slight overpay worth it IMO.
2 - re-signings ) Love your list, but I do want to se Dobbins back. It shouldn't be expensive.
3 - Trey Smith) Ryan has other options he likes more that we'll cover soon. It probably doesn't make sense to break the bank for Trey.
4 - Center, Dalman) See above. Ryan likes Ryan Kelly, sees him as more of a scheme fit, and thinks he's playing at a real high level. I'd want to shoot a Day 3 pick on a developmental center if we go that route.
5 - Browning ) briefly scouted when he had that stock offering where you could buy a percentage of his future earnings. I dove deep on the finances behind what they were assessing his market value at, at it was WAY OFF (forgive my numbers below, I'm just going off the top of my head now). I actually made a small play on a minor league baseball player instead who had a deal with a different company, because it actually had upside. Would have loved to invest in a football player, but he would have needed to earn something like $20M/yr for 4-5 years in his prime to break even, and nothing pointed to that valuation at the time. After this last season, I feel pretty validated. So I have an emotional "pass" on that one.
6 - Warren/Loveland) I don't know Buck - it was a weird, QB/T heavy draft last year, and the best TE prospect we've ever seen fell to 13. Maybe a more diluted class allows TEs to go earlier, especially with Bowers' success, but I think there's a good chance one of those guys is available to us. In the last 30 years, there have only been two drafts where two tight ends were drafted before pick 22. But as you suggested - if Loveland is there and Jim passes, I trust him.
7 - WR) Absolutely
8 - CB) Might be foolish of me, but with how well they did with the Hart/Still picks, I'm blindly trusting them here. Wouldn't be surprised if this is a position where they find another cheap cast-off like Fulton in FA that does a yeoman's job.
9 - RB) Wouldn't be pissed if they drafted Jeanty - if they already addressed IOL. Like RB, TE is deep enough to kick to later rounds if they choose. But yes, if not Jeanty, I'm fine with going with a Day 3 guy.
@buck-melanoma I think this 9 point plan kind of sucks lol I would be very disappointed in this.
@buck-melanoma So starting at the top, the two things I do agree with are cutting Bosa and re-signing Mack, those seem almost no-brainers (assuming Mack wants to stay on a reasonable deal which I think he probably does).
However, the rest of the plan for the DL is something Telesco would've done and just left status quo and somehow "hoped" for better execution or whatever nonsense. Bringing back the exact same DL except swapping out Bosa for Browning is a terrible plan and will leave the Chargers as an early playoff exit team again. There is no chance they can make it through the likes of Mahomes, Allen, Lamar and Burrow with that same DL (actually I think it would be worse subbing Browning for Bosa). THIS IS MY BIGGEST GRIPE WITH THE PLAN, but...
I completely disagree with signing Smith. Everyone is just on this one because he's the only highly graded guard that is a UFA, but I think it would be a huge mistake and have outlined reasons why in several other threads.
Dalman - I am very intrigued by this guy despite Tau's insistence that he's not a fit based on that podcast. I will say this... I've seen other teams blogs that really want this guy and think he's a PERFECT fit (Seahawks for example), so I do think some team is going to pay him a lot of money and probably box the Chargers out anyways.
Browning - not that interested in this move.
Warren - Highly doubt he makes it to 22, this seems irrelevant.
Tre Harris - I'm not totally opposed to the player, but I think it makes more sense to sign a vet WR and try and focus our top picks on the trenches or if they do go skill position I would go TE and/or RB which I think would have a bigger effect on the offense in the near term than a second tier rookie WR. There are no immediate "impact receivers like Jamar Chase or Nabers in this draft obviously.
So Popper's draft plan here is a round 1 TE, round 2 - WR, round 3 CB... All skill positions. AGAIN, total Telesco move and why the team always had pro bowlers and always sucked because the lines were always neglected. Thank god, I'm pretty sure Hortiz and Harbaugh know better, but this roster is not set up to ignore the trenches in the first three rounds. Even IF you do add FA pieces on the line, you still cannot afford to skip on adding young players to the trenches. Classic Telesco (and other shitty GM mentality).
Lastly, I think waiting until Day 3 for a RB is going to yield another player who can barely contribute, so then we're back to relying on Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Even in a "deep" RB class, it looks like most of the real impact players will be gone by pick 124 and I'm tired of drafting Josh Kelly's, Vidal's, Rountree, Spiller, etc... I want an actual young dynamic player back there!
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