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We’ve just released Episode 110 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis for Episode 110 is below:
With only two weeks until the 2025 NFL Draft, on today’s show we unpack how the Chargers should ATTACK it! Building an NFL roster requires many decisions and different teams have different philosophies. Are their certain positions you should never draft in Round 1? Should you ever trade up? Should BPA or need mainly determine picks? We discuss it all on TDU. Don’t miss it!
You can also listen on Spotify below (or download on audio wherever you like to listen to podcasts):
As always, you can support us by doing any or all of the following:
– Rec’ing this post and leaving any thoughts/feedback you have in the comments section below.
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Hope you enjoy the episode! Thanks so much for listening 
Alister (@TDU_Alister)
I was especially impressed with Alister’s presentation on the “‘development” factor for taking DTs in the 1st Round. That, and a deep DT class, makes me a bit less sanguine about using the 1st pick on a DT. Edge, WR, TE, or CB — hopefully one of the top guys at one of these positions falls to us . . . and we capitalize.
@kathmandusteve Thanks Steve! I left a comment on this topic below. I thought it was interesting data on the DTs so wanted to share it, but maybe not determinative (for some of the reasons Tau gives). Food for thought at the very least 🙂
Enjoyed the show.
Completely agree with Alister’s take on BPA and his tier approach, similar to what I posted in the other thread this morning.
Glad Alister clarified that my view on trading up was generally skeptical about the first round only, not other rounds. Appreciate the shout out in the discussion. 😊
What Alister presented about IDL players was interesting, but I was not moved much.
- Those taken in the 20s in the past don’t move me, because this is a deeper IDL class than any of the classes in Alister’s sample. So it stands to reason that the IDL players taken in the late first round in 2025 could be better than those in the sample.
- The overall sample size is fairly small, which limits its predictiveness.
- Situations matter a lot. Like the quality of coaching, the quality of strength and conditioning, the scheme fit, injuries, etc. I assume some of the players in the sample who did not excel were affected by these factors.
Not sure where Jack got my view from on drafting to fit scheme or fitting scheme to players. I have definitely posted in the past, like when a new coaching staff came in for the Chargers, that a good coaching staff should be able to adjust to maximize the players’ strengths.
But when it comes to drafting, I think it makes sense to draft players who fit the schemes, particularly for a coaching staff that has security, as Harbaugh’s staff has today. That can mean players who have shown it in the schemes (e.g., players who have excelled in gap blocking schemes vs. zone blocking schemes). It could also mean players the coaches believe are skilled enough to adapt to something they may not have demonstrated on film.
On RB, I don’t think there is a general move back to taking RBs earlier, except where grades warrant. Jeanty is going to go early because he is graded so high, which is rare for a RB (for any player, really). For example, Lance Zeuerlein at nfl.com has Jeanty graded higher than any other player at any position in the draft, and by a decent margin at that. Jeanty will go high because he is so good that is warranted.
As for whether or not the OL is ready to support a great RB, I think it is close enough that the team could take a RB in any round. Becton should upgrade RG. Both tackles are All Pro caliber. I expect the team to draft an IOL player to compete to upgrae LG and/or C, and James could also help to upgrade.
I heard Alister say that teams got good RBs in the 2nd round, as if to suggest that is a reason not to consider RB in the first. I generally agree with not taking RB in the first unless the right one is available. If Jeanty fell to 1.22, the Chargers should take him IMO, no matter what other players are available. I don’t think there is any chance of that happening, in which case I wholeheartedly agree with waiting until day 2 or 3 to draft a RB.
Let me conclude this tangent by saying, if Ladainian Tomlinson is available to you at your first round pick, you take him, regardless of whether or not the OL has been completely upgraded yet. I have seen Jeanty compared to Tomlinson. That may be right or wrong, I’m just saying that IMO it isn’t as clear cut as you guys made it out to be in the discussion.
My quick hit answers:
- Build defense front to back. Easy call. Unfortunately, the Chargers haven’t done that… just look at the paltry investment in IDL.
- Would rather have a top 5 offense. Easy call.
- One trait for all – Harbaugh guy. We all get that.
Andy’s point about rewarding merit is just business 101. That is what we should all do in every professional environment. (Sadly, I have rarely seen this done consistently…)
@tau837 Jeanty compared to LT isn’t going to age well, IMO. But only time will tell that tale.
I believe the most help to Herbert and this offense will come via pass catchers and a stronger IOL. Until that’s addressed, I can’t get on board with taking any RB from this draft class at 1.22.
@tau837 Thanks for the comments, Brian!
What Alister presented about IDL players was interesting, but I was not moved much.
- Those taken in the 20s in the past don’t move me, because this is a deeper IDL class than any of the classes in Alister’s sample. So it stands to reason that the IDL players taken in the late first round in 2025 could be better than those in the sample.
- The overall sample size is fairly small, which limits its predictiveness.
- Situations matter a lot. Like the quality of coaching, the quality of strength and conditioning, the scheme fit, injuries, etc. I assume some of the players in the sample who did not excel were affected by these factors.
I think this is a fair response with some good additional points.
I would use the DT data in this way:
- (Without running a regression and doing a proper comparison between positions) it seems reasonable to form a preliminary view that DTs do take longer than some other positions to develop and produce at the NFL level.
- That being the case, I would be wary if my offseason plan hinged on getting immediate production from that player. If I’m a team who’s on the door of Super Bowl contention and I think that I’m one explosive-3-tech DT away from winning it all, I would be attacking that position through the draft and free agency. And if my hopes and dreams turn on my first round pick producing in that year’s playoffs, I might be in trouble.
- I don’t think the Chargers should see that data and take from it that they should categorically steer clear of DT. If Harmon/Grant/Nolan start producing at a high level in Year 2 or Year 3, I think that would probably be fine for the Chargers’ purposes.
I heard Alister say that teams got good RBs in the 2nd round, as if to suggest that is a reason not to consider RB in the first. I generally agree with not taking RB in the first unless the right one is available. If Jeanty fell to 1.22, the Chargers should take him IMO, no matter what other players are available. I don’t think there is any chance of that happening, in which case I wholeheartedly agree with waiting until day 2 or 3 to draft a RB.
Let me conclude this tangent by saying, if Ladainian Tomlinson is available to you at your first round pick, you take him, regardless of whether or not the OL has been completely upgraded yet. I have seen Jeanty compared to Tomlinson. That may be right or wrong, I’m just saying that IMO it isn’t as clear cut as you guys made it out to be in the discussion.
I don’t think it’s a reason ‘not to consider’ RB in the first, but the reasonable hit rate of RBs taken in Day 2 vs other positions (eg, OT, Edge) would be a relevant factor for me. Strength of the draft class is also relevant though, as you mention.
To be clear, I would draft Jeanty if he fell to 1.22, and at a certain point, I may even approve a trade up for Jeanty. He’s really good.
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