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After the thorough bludgeoning we took at home yesterday, and with 3 games remaining on this new regime’s first season, I thought it would be good to take a step back and assess the season as objectively as possible. Especially after last season’s embarrassment, everyone was excited to usher in a new era of Chargers football under Hortiz and Harbaugh, but maybe a little examination and perspective is needed on the reality of this team.
Anyone who is an ardent fan over the years and has watched this team flounder under first time HC after first time HC with some real talent, knows this team has finally hired a coach with a winning pedigree at the college and NFL level who you would expect to have a level of success here that has not been seen since the Schottenheimer/LT days. While this may be true, it would be foolish to assume there is no doubt as to whether Harbaugh’s success can translate into the modern NFL. After all, the game has changed dramatically from Jim’s last coaching stint in the NFL, but there are things outside of scheme that he brings with him that are almost more important. He builds a culture through toughness, preparation, effort, and positive enthusiasm and he has an authenticity that resonates with fans and players. Team identity is another area he was touted on bringing with him, but so far not all of these attributes, in my opinion, have come to fruition.
Q: Are we more prepared and ready to play each week?
A: Absolutely. Players seem prepared and know the game plans and how to execute each week. At this point there have not been any low effort games from the players and the entire operation of how to prepare the team seems professional. Absolute upgrade here over anything we have seen in the last 15+ years.
Q: While the team philosophy is physicality and toughness has this been executed?
A: Not fully and there are chinks in the philosophy at this point. In the few games where opponent met the physicality of the Chargers, they have come up short. The Cardinals, Ravens, Bucs, and Steelers all punched back and we lost every game. In reality, only the Ravens and possibly Steelers were better roster wise and we were banged up going into Pitt. Turtling up and punting in the opponents half of the field in the last few weeks instead of kicking or going for it on 4th and manageable (with a QB the HC glazes every second) isn’t a ringing endorsement of a tough mentality. I would say this aspect of the team is in question.
Q: Has this team set an identity on both sides of the ball.
A: It has on defense. This team plays a physical brand of football and communicates very well to limit mistakes. It is coached and executed at a high level. There are some roster limitations to make it truly elite, but it is not lacking from a scheme and coaching perspective. The offense has absolutely no identity. They are envisioned philosophically as a run heavy, physical team. They are none of these. They have no running attack to lean on (currently 22 in YPG), nor do they assert their dominance at the POA. They are 23rd in sacks per game given up also. One has to blame Hortiz as much as the coaching staff. While the team is in a rebuilding/retooling year, we are not in tank mode, they wanted to win games. The roster building this aspect of the team was a big whiff. If you wanted to establish a rushing identity, getting 2 RB off the scrap heap and investing in a 6th Rd rookie to lead the attack was a mistake, not to mention the lack of adding some IOL quality, even in the depth. This team has morphed into leaning on Herbert to win games with no real weapons or decent pass blocking line. This should have been the philosophy all along. You have a top 5 QB talent, why are we obsessed with becoming the ’66 Packers? At this point the offense does nothing well. The coaching, scheme and talent are disjointed to create any continued success. Something needs to change here going forward.
Q: Is this team headed in the right direction for continued growth and success?
A: Unequivocally yes. This team beats up on bad opponents. While you might believe this is not an important step, you would be wrong. How often in the past have we lost to bad teams crushing our season or playoff chances? Beating the teams you should beat is essential to having winning seasons. It’s when you can start to go toe to toe with the better teams and pulling those games out that you become a serious SB contender. This doesn’t happen overnight, but as the Lions have proved, if you have the right coaching and add good talent, you can be very successful quickly. I have great faith that Joe Hortiz and Harbaugh will continue to align to get the roster to a championship level. The GM/team building aspect of this phase might be more important than the coaching going forward. The flip side of this is that we have lost to some marginal opponents this season, but I think more of that is on a talent level rather than just a coaching level. That just intensifies the need to add the proper talent next offseason to take the next step in expectations.
Overall, I think the team is headed in the right direction just purely because the old direction under Telesco and Staley was a joke. This team might never get to a SB or win one, but at the very least this new regime has them as a credible franchise, which hasn’t been the case in over a decade. I am still not sold on the offensive scheme or it’s coordinator. Talent be damned, you can’t have as many scoreless halves as we have seen this season and think otherwise. I believe the best thing to do would be to lean into the talent of Herbert and build the team around him. You don’t put a Porsche in a demolition derby. You can have a solid running game to compliment him. You do not need to become a running team. As fans we want to win every game, every year, but if we take a macro look at the team we are probably 2 drafts away from being a legit contender in the mold of the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills or Lions. Also, finishing with the 7th WC spot by being 3rd in the division helps with the scheduling for next year and the draft position by a few spots, so it wouldn’t be the worst situation in the world. Let’s face it, with this offense we aren’t beating anyone in the playoffs except maybe the Texans anyway, so use the playoff game as a good building block into next season. The path to the ultimate success is there, but this will be a big offseason to add the necessary pieces and make the proper scheme and staff adjustments to stay on track toward the goal.
It is worth noting the first season records of the previous 3 head coaches:
- McCoy: 9-7, playoffs
- Lynn: 9-7, no playoffs
- Staley: 9-8, no playoffs
I am still hoping for 10-7 this season, which would be slightly better than each of those records. Regardless, I think Harbaugh is a better hire than each of those three.
What Harbaugh, Hortiz, and their staffs have achieved in year one after inheriting a roster weak on depth and a very challenging cap situation is impressive. This franchise was 5-12 last season. This is a very positive turnaround season already.
However, I have two significant issues with the coaching that need to be addressed in order for this team to reach its potential in 2025 and beyond.
First, Roman is not the OC this team needs. I’m not sure if the game has passed him by or what, but there is no excuse for the level of ineptitude we have seen this season on offense. They are #21 in points per game and #27 in yards per game. As a thought exercise, imagine each of the other 31 current OCs as OC of the Chargers this season. How many would have managed the offense to better results? Without giving it much thought, I’d estimate at least 80% of them. That isn’t acceptable going forward, and I don’t find the roster or injuries to be compelling excuses.
Second, Harbaugh needs help with game management. I’m not expecting him to be Dan Campbell, but his conservative decision-making has hurt the team this season. It is important for a team that wants to rise up from mediocre to contender status to find every advantage possible to use against its opponents. Unfortunately, the Chargers are giving away expected points too often.
I’m still optimistic the team will make the playoffs this season, and that will be a great achievement. And I’m still optimistic that Harbaugh is the right coach. But if he keeps Roman for 2025 and shows no signs of improvement next season in game management, I’m going to have a hard time retaining that optimism.
@tau837 agree 100%. Roman should not be brought back. The league is a passing league ruled by good to elite QB play and solid defense. Bringing him in to install a rushing offense would make more sense for a team in a complete rebuild that has no franchise QB like the Giants, Raiders or Titans. Look no further than the Ravens jettisoning him and then become a prolific offense under Monken. I understand Harbaugh has been successful with him in the NFL, but that was a decade ago with a much less talented QB. I mean how many teams routinely put up halves with zero points with a top 5 talent at QB? Don’t waste your time thinking about it. The answer is none. There are much less talented teams that do not disappear for entire halves. Like you said, the lack of talent excuse only goes so far. It’s not like the offense us made up of all UDFA talent. These are still NFL players.
Jim should have learned already from his brother John when he went for it on 4th down from the his own 16-yard line. I can’t agree more here along with Erick’s assessment as well. I won’t be surprised if Jim starts loosening up from being conservative with play calling
@tau837 Great post above by @evolz3737 and also great post here, Tau.
I’ve come to terms with the real likelihood that Greg Roman is the OC next season. I think they’re going to excuse away the issues:
- They’ll (somewhat correctly) point out that the Offense lacks a good IOL, WR1, TE1, experienced FB, and healthy RBs. With another offseason to enhance the roster, they’ll convince themselves that Roman will be better placed to execute his vision. I don’t necessarily disagree.
- Jack posted some relevant data about Roman’s personnel preferences here: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1868875985955033431. The current roster is not suited to his preferences and they’ll fix that this offseason.
- Some would counter that the scheme should fit the players. I agree. But I’m also not sure how much of this has been a directive from Harbaugh in Yr 1. They may wish to establish a style of playing football in LA that they can maintain moving forward.
- Close watchers of the games will have observed as many issues with ‘execution’ as ‘scheme’ this season. Being the team with the second most dropped passes isn’t Roman’s fault: https://twitter.com/danielrpopper/status/1868816779348447554
- Roman has weaknesses (doesn’t target RBs in the passing game, doesn’t really utilise quick game or empty formations, second half adjustments, and so on), but also some signature strengths that he’s demonstrated over the years (use of unbalanced formations, run game, high YPA, high ADOT, effective play action passing, good use of mobile QBs). Other than the top 5 OCs in the NFL, I think most OCs have a collection of strengths and weaknesses. I’m not as certain as some that there is a suite of obvious upgrades, especially who would gel with how Harbaugh wants to play football.
- They won’t want Herbert learning a new Offense. I can sympathise with that.
I think the Chargers can contend for a Super Bowl with Greg Roman as the OC. The 49ers did. The Ravens came close. I get the viewpoint that the Offense hasn’t been good enough. No doubt that’s true. I even think that there’s a chance Roman’s flaws are fatal and would prevent a SB being achieved. Am I confident enough though in that view that I’d terminate the r’ship in what was considered a rebuild year? It would depend on the alternatives (and whether those alternatives are likely to become HCs themsleves in the near future) but I would lean towards keeping him right now.
@alisterlloyd Good post.
I have a tough time accepting the rationale in your first bullet. To the extent the offense lacks good IOL, WR1, TE1, experienced FB, and healthy RBs, those things are largely the outcome of decisions made by Hortiz, presumably with Harbaugh’s endorsement. In other words, they willingly made this bed. The only real mitigator is to point out that they couldn’t address everything in year 1. I agree with that, but ignoring the center position in particular was fairly egregious, and many of us around here recognized that before the fact, not just in hindsight.
Your second bullet reminds me of what we heard about the poor performance of Staley’s defense in year 1. In that case, the excuse turned out to be a poor excuse, not a legitimate reason. So that argument here doesn’t inspire me with confidence.
Agree your third bullet is likely a heavy influencer. That doesn’t really ease my concern for the future, though.
I have to disagree with the notion that there have been “as many” issues with execution as scheme. I don’t think drops is a strong argument in favor of that notion, given that (per PFF, not including MNF games this week) the median of all teams is 18.5, and 14 teams have 20 or more. The delta isn’t big enough to support the assertion.
I’m afraid you are right that Roman will be back. I’ll reserve final judgment until I see results in year 2, allowing for the possibility that his offense may perform much better, especially since i expect an infusion of offensive talent in the offseason.
You’re right that maybe ‘as many’ is a stretch. But I do think plays are being left on the field too often every single week (not only drops), and not all of it is scheme-reltaed. Most of us thought this was a bottom quartile collection of skill players heading into the season and I think it’s proven to be correct.
On bullet one, the Chargers willingly made their bed with the Offensive choices they made (letting Keenan/Mike walk, not addressing C/TE with high-end talent, etc). I don’t know whether those choices were foisted upon Roman or not. I assume he was involved in every decision that was made. But fixing the cap/building a competitive roster was always likely to be a two year job (at minimum).
I agree with your final sentence. I’m reserving judgment for now, but at least note the following things that I was looking for from the Offense this season:
- Herbert playing great football. I think this box has been checked. Herbert would probably play great no matter who his OC is, so the question is whether he’s being elevated by Roman. Jury is out on this, but I have liked some of the play action passing results and Herbert using his legs with a confidence I haven’t seen before.
- McConkey being an immediate impact player. Check. Again, possibly not Roman-related, but if we are going to knock him for certain team and player based stats (points, yards) then credit for putting McConkey is positions to succeed too.
- QJ making the leap and being used properly. Partial credit for this. No doubt QJ is improved and has been used better in certain respects (eg, curls and crossers against the Bucs). But maybe this is Sanjay Lal’s work, and I haven’t liked how he’s been used in other respects (all the deep patterns).
- What Herbert looks like with a good running game. I know recent results have been paltry, but I think we’ve seen flashes of what this looks like when JK Dobbins has been healthy. I’m thinking of early wins against the Raiders and Broncos where long scoring drives wore down the opposition.
You all know by now that I’m fairly patient with hiring and firing decisions (especially with coaches). I think injuries to Herbert and Dobbins have been limiting factors in certain games this year. I’m keen to see how Roman’s Offense fares next year, hopefully with better and healthier pieces, before writing off his Offense.
@alisterlloyd Good post as usual. One thing I would counter with is that Harbaugh has established how he wants to play football. What style is that exactly? We are a below average running team who has morphed into a pass heavy team with one real WR. How is that a style? If the idea in year one was to establish a culture and an identity, and that identity on offense was an above average run game, then Harbaugh and Hortiz should have focused more on building the roster for that style of play. I understand that not every want for the roster and the teams vision can be achieved in one offseason, but I could have lived with us focusing on getting stronger on the interior and investing in some better options at RB and FB and diving into the ground and pound style for this season (even though I think that style is wasting Herbert’s talent). Instead, they took half measures to strip down the passing offense without investing the lost capital there into the rushing offense and here we are, a rudderless ship. As I mentioned earlier, the fact that the Ravens and Jim’s own brother, with a running, not mobile QB, jettisoned Roman to become one of the prolific offenses in the league in the last few seasons, doesn’t bode well for him. The past offseason was a waste from an offensive standpoint. Outside of Ladd, they added nothing of playmaking significance to either facet of the offense and now they need to invest heavily in both to hopefully become league average. Not good. In the back of my mind I have a feeling that Harbaugh came in thinking he could run the offense the same as he did a decade ago in the NFL and more recently in college, but has now realized the game has changed to be run through the passing game and top tier QB play. If so, does he have the stones to pivot off Roman after year one for someone with a more modern approach to NFL offense? I also think it’s hard to have this tough guy image and then continue to accept multiple halves getting shut out by bringing back the same staff that allowed it to happen. What message does that send? IMO, realizing that this is not going to work and ripping the band aid off now is the move. Why wait another season or two of roster building the offense to then have to reset with a new OC, learning a new offense and now needing different personnel? I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think this Roman experiment is the right move going forward.
@evolz3737 bingo.
You wanna be a smashmouth, run first offense? Why let the deepest center class in years pass by without grabbing one? Frazier is gonna be a standout for Pittsburgh for the next decade.
Then you’re gonna move your suspect tackle who plays on roller skates inside to guard? Come on!!! Now, as you said, this offense has no identity and appears virtually clueless how to produce points on anything resembling consistency.
Pretty certain one of the definitions for insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results. Yet, barring necessity fueled by injuries, that’s what’s been done. Little to no attempts to shake up the roster.
I don’t mind not being a powerhouse this year….didn’t expect it. I mind being sold something that wasn’t built properly and watching Herbert spend another wasted year getting beaten up.
@evolz3737 All fair comments, Erick.
Most of my response to Tau above is also relevant here so I won’t repeat it all.
Basically, Harbaugh and Hortiz need to decide together:
- Is Greg Roman really ‘not modern enough’ or has the problem been the lack of talent?
- How much better would any other OC have done this year? (This is not easy to answer).
Before Roman was hired, Tau set out a long list of every season he’s been an OC and where that team finished in points scored and some other metric (which I can’t remember now). From memory, Roman’s output was the same or better than Kellen Moore’s career as a playcaller (whose Eagles are now 12-2). He’s presided over a season where the QB was NFL MVP.
If the Chargers make the right offseason moves, I think the Roman experiment will look just fine in the regular season, and in the playoffs we’ll find out whether the team needs to reset.
Let’s see how this season finishes. I’m trying to be mindful of my own biases too. I listen to G-Ro’s press conference every week, and verbally he’s probably the most intelligent coordinator we’ve had since Frank Reich. (Lombardi was also a good speaker). I enjoy listening to him and I don’t think he’s a stupid person. Maybe we’ll be having a different conversation if the Offense goes down the drain these final three weeks. But right now, I’m not prepared to bail on the coordinator after one season of mixed results.
I found an old post about Roman in another forum.
Roman’s NFL OC history before 2024 (10 seasons):
- SF OC (2011-2014): finished 11, 11, 11, 25 in points scored… with Alex Smith and Kaepernick at QB
- BUF OC (2015-2016): finished 12, 10 in points scored… with Tyrod at QB
- BAL OC (2019-2022): finished 1, 7, 17, 19 in points scored, with primary QB Lamar Jackson, but QBs Huntley, Anthony Brown, and Josh Johnson starting 5 combined games in each of those last 2 seasons
- That is an average finish of 12.4
The Chargers are currently #20 in points scored… on track to be Roman’s 2nd worst performing offense in 11 seasons as NFL OC.
I’m not sure how to put lipstick on this pig… yes, Herbert has played at less than 100% in multiple games, but Roman had better performing offenses with Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor, and Lamar Jackson. Okay, Jackson is fine, but Smith, Kaepernick, and Tyrod?
Maybe he will get back into the top 15 next season with the expected influx of offensive talent, but it is worth noting that he never had any season prior to 2024 with a QB with the skill and talent mix that Herbert has… meaning he has never succeeded in building an offense around a QB like Herbert.
Roman has never had as gifted a passer as Herbert in the pros, which makes the offensive problems this year so glaring. No running game and turned Herbert into Tyrod Taylor.
Kurt Warner did a video today showing how the Bolts’ pass design is so bad. Team has 8 players blocking and 2 receivers in the pass pattern. Protection breaks down even with 8 blockers and the 2 receivers are double and triple teamed. What is the team doing here???
I have every faith the defense will bounce back, but the offense??? Come on guys.
At the game on Sunday, after a Herbert incompletion, I told my son for the umpteenth time this year, there were two receivers in the same area. A run-heavy OC who doesn’t have elite pass concepts seems like a waste of an elite QB like Herbert just from a general proposition.
I’ve killed Lombardi and, to a certain extent, Moore, but damn GR, what have you done to Herbert and the offense??? Wish we had Steichen back. Look what he did for Herbert with the 31-ranked OLine in 2020.
@unclejammsarmy Agreed. The Giants, who are the worst team in football, and have started Daniel Jones, Drew Lock and the immortal Tommy Devito at QB have 5 scoreless halves. We have 4 with Justin Herbert. The lack of talent argument only goes so far. These are NFL players that THEY picked to be on the roster. They are not all UDFA level players either. In today’s NFL, with the rules skewed toward the offense, there is no reason, outside of extreme weather, not to be able to even muster a FG or two a half at the worst.
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