We’ve just releasedย Episode 131ย of theย Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis is below:
It was dรฉjร vu for the #BoltFam on Sunday, as the Chargers strolled into Jacksonville in Wk 11 with a quiet confidence, but left knowing theyโd experienced a seismic season-shifting loss. The Jags 35-6 Bolt Beatdown was the most lopsided time of possession imbalance of any game in Coach Harbaughโs NFL Career. Not wanting his Coach to suffer the ignominy of a career low statistical mark alone, Herbert also passed for his lowest career yardage total in a game (81). As the team now enters their bye week, admittedly their chances of making the playoffs remain high. Their overall season record is 7-4 and their AFC West record is 3-0. However, have all these wins been for a lost cause? We discuss both sides of the coin today on TDU. Donโt miss it!
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Hope you enjoy the episode! Thanks so much for listening ๐
Alister (@TDU_Alister)
I listened to the pod over the weekend. Andy is becoming the Becton of TDU!!! JK. Hope to hear him back soon. I am surprised that Jack would have Roman back even before seeing what the end of the season brought. Injuries aside, I am squarely in the camp of not bringing him back. I just don’t think his offense is a fit for Herbert long term and it seems that when D coordinators get a beat on what he wants to do, its a wrap. I would be surprised if Harbaugh makes a change in the off season. Maybe his loyalty to his coaches could end up being a critical flaw. Time will tell.
The Becton of TDU! ๏ปฟ ๐ ๏ปฟ Polar opposites physically, but similar traits mentally perhaps ๏ปฟ ๐ ๏ปฟ
I think Jack agreed that future performances will be relevant. But if he were to decide now, I think his reasoning is basically:
1. Sick of new OCs for Herbert,
2. For periods this year, Herbert has played at the highest level of his career and was an NFL MVP candidate. Injuries have set this team back, and Roman deserves some credit for eliciting that type of performance from Herbert, so he’s good enough to keep in the role despite some scheme limitations.
I’m closer to siding with you, but if Harbaugh can’t find an obviously more creative replacement (either because he doesn’t know one, or doesn’t want one), and I’d rather just keep the devil we know. I don’t want Pep Hamilton or David Shaw to be the 2026 OC.
Another comment awaiting approval.
Good timing for Andy to put in some family driven time away from the podcast!
Come on, don’t perpetuate the narrative that Luck was the smartest NFL QB ever. I don’t believe that… Rivers was smarter!
Thanks for shouting me out.
IMO the Becton take was unfortunately on point.
Andy hates missing shows but his timing is impeccable!
You won’t hear me denigrate Phil. If you have a spare half-hour, Luck appeared recently on Move The Sticks to discuss his transtion from NFL player to Stanford GM. Credit where it’s due, he’s an engaging and highly articulate interviewee:
Anytime mate, thanks for listening!
Great discussion. I finished my morning cup of coffee reading the entire thread. I think I enjoyed that more than anything I’ve read on BFTB over the last year. Great job Tau, Alister, Erick. Thank you for taking the time to put your thoughts on StormCloud!
Like Everyone, I am very frustrated by the blow-out losses. The team that showed up in Jacksonville looked completely un-prepared to play an NFL game; something that should not happen when Jim Harbaugh is your coach. While the injuries to the tackles are unfortunate, the interior of the OL was and is the problem, and there are really no injury excuses. It’s the same shit play we all saw last season, screamed about during the off-season and are now are having our concerns proven correct with maybe the slight exception of Zion (who has been OK and possibly is the best OL player this season).
The tackles injuries are unfortunate. I think Hortiz has done a great job of finding players to fill the void. The interior… The Chargers had a shit plan that blew up in their face. No excuses. Just a bad plan with very predictable outcomes all of us saw coming.
All of that said, the Chargers are likely headed to their second winning season in a row and should make their second consecutive playoff appearance. Staley, Lynn & McCoy all had consecutive winning seasons, but you have to go back to the Norv era to see back-to-back playoff appearances (2008-2009).
Not happy with the season, but don’t want to throw the baby out with the bathwater. If I had to peg one bad decision the Chargers have made in the Harbaugh era that has set this team back, it’s drafting Colson (and Eboigbe) when Tanor Bortolini was available. Put Tanor in the middle of this OL and the Chargers have at least 2 more wins this season.
Nice post, Kev.
And don’t forget, we still have 6 games to go and we have already had more blowouts than any of those SB teams. Anyone that thinks that this team is SB caliber is delusional.
I think the historical data is heavily against us.
I will say though, Erick, I read all your comments about the team on Stormcloud and X and – even though I respect your opinion a lot – my gut reaction to some of your takes is “that’s harsh”, and sometimes, it’s ‘that’s way too harsh’.
Here’s the reality – the Chargers are 7-4, after finishing 11-6 last year. They’re a solid, and generally well-coached, football team.
Which AFC team right now would you say that fans aren’t delusional for thinking they could win a Super Bowl this year?
This is a weaker-than-usual AFC, IMO. And whether your team is a Super Bowl calibre team depends at least somewhat on competition.
Keep being real and honest with your critiques of the team, Erick. They’re usually fun and interesting to read. But I urge you to step back and see the bigger picture sometimes. Teams in the NFL are rarely perfect, and that includes the teams that go deep into the playoffs.
Alister,
I have to admit, some of the takes are out of frustration. Some of us have been waiting decades to even see the team in a SB again, no less be a legit contender. We have been dealt hands with bargain basement, garbage coaches and staffs forever.
Maybe it’s because the die hard fans that follow the team all year and do the roster, cap and draft homework saw that this team was not fortified sufficiently to be legit?
Maybe it’s because we agonizingly and excitedly waited months for a second season of a supposed “elite” operation and an advancement to becoming a legit contender only to see the team regress, and mostly due to the areas we were concerned about?
Maybe it’s because we have gotten to watch it done correctly in our own division, getting our noses wiped in it for a decade?
Who knows, maybe you are right with the AFC having a down year, but wouldn’t that make it even worse if we didn’t make the playoffs? And we play the NFC West next year which will make the future schedule more difficult.
What makes you believe that a team that:
Can all of a sudden evolve in week 13 to be something they haven’t all season, well coached and consistent?
Could they win 3-4 more games and cement a playoff birth? Sure. But against the competition coming up that would require a level of consistent play and coaching that this team has not shown the ability to execute this season. But hell, I would be delighted to be proven wrong.
I think that generally margins between blowout loss to close loss to close win to blowout win are not that great. 5-6 plays a game can move a team from one end of that spectrum to the other.
The bye is coming at a very good time. The roster shoulld be healthier than it has been in weeks in week 13. Hoping for this after the bye:
Best case scenario, the Chargers win 5 of 6 games to finish 12-5, losing only to Philly. Meanwhile, Denver loses 3 of 6, and the Chargers win the division. That puts the Chargers in the #3 seed, hosting #6 seed KC, with a chance for a 3-0 season sweep. (Projecting NE #1 , IND #2 , DEN #4 , BUF #5 , KC #6 , BAL #7 .)
Do I think that will happen? I think all of the things in the list could happen and would help the Chargers to 10-11 wins. 12 is unlikely, but within the realm of possibility.
It is also possible that most of those things don’t happen, and the team finishes with just 8-9 wins and out of the playoffs. Big range of outcomes here. I’m expecting the middle ground of 10-11 wins. That probably means facing DEN, IND, or NE on the road in round 1 of the playoffs. Given those choices, it’s an easy call to prefer the Colts, since they play indoors and to get some revenge for the earlier game.
Very fair and I think I am in the same camp as you. Outside of winning all 6 games, I wouldnโt be surprised with any of the potential outcomes. I also think thatโs where the biggest frustration lies. I understand we have injuries, but inconsistent play and being thoroughly out coached and out schemed multiple times a season isnโt the Harbaugh experience that we signed up for.
I completely empathise with your frustration and I obviously feel it too. Also, you post comments while you’re watching the game. Whereas I never do that. So it’s easier for me to moderate my frustration 48-60 hours after the game’s over!
I think there’s validity to all the comments about things the team could’ve done better this offseason to fortify the roster. We were all angry about Poona leaving. And it turns out that (most of us) were right about his departure impacting the Run Defense. That was predicatable and a disappointing decision. And we’ve bemoaned the interior Offensive Line approach for many months now.
What I keep coming back to though is that:
this team lost 2 of its best 5 players to season-ending injuries.And they both happen to be Offensive Tackles.
The state of O-Line depth being what it is across the League, this was a a brutal and probably fatal blow to the season.
As we said on the show, if you were offered a 7-4 record heading into Bye week before the season begun, I think many fans would have taken it.
And if you were offered it with the qualification that Alt/Slater/Najee would all have been lost for the season early, and Hampton for a significant portion of it, I think all but the most optimistic fans would’ve leapt at that record.
Stepping back, it suggests that the roster depth and coaching are both strengths of the organisation in a way that has not been the case previously. This is what gives me at least a modicum of hope for the remainder of the season (as Tau has set out below, much would have to go right including Hampton’s return to 100% form quickly).
To be clear, I am expecting an early playoff exit this year. And I think this is largely the bad luck of having Slater and Alt both lost to the season. Even having one of those great players available would be a material difference to our playoff chances. The Chargers were 4-0 this year when Alt played the entire game.
Greg Roman is also part of the problem. Again, we discussed this on the show. Things have to be too perfect, and Herbert has to be elite, for the Offense to be Top 10 in the NFL. That’s not a good sign and I suspect will always hold the team back. All the creative trends OCs use across the NFL (Insert Players, Dirty Bunch formations, Short motion, variety of screen passes) are not in Greg’s playbook.
And even if he’s fired, I don’t think Harbaugh would know where to find an OC who’s at the cutting-edge. He’d more likely fall back on his network and hire another playcaller who shares his Offensive values. But that’s what we all signed up for when Harbaugh was hired. That’s why I would have been equally (or more) happy if Ben Johnson was the hire. But after the Staley experience, I understand why fans wanted the proven commodity at HC.
I agree on most points except the 7-4 record. Yes, without context most fans would have signed up for that record. However, with the fact that 3 of the losses were to inferior opponents, that makes a big difference. Iโm sorry, but teams like KC, Det, LAR, GB, Buff, donโt lose that game to the NYG or get blown out 35-6, ever. If the goal is to get into that echelon, this season has been a step backwards from that direction.
Jacksonville didnโt have their top 2 WR, their best OL, and were playing backups in the secondary and completely dominated us in every facet of the game. If we went into that game with no Ladd and QJ and lost, that would have been the excuse that was leaned into.
Every team is dealing with injuries to key players, and outside of losing the QB, there is no excuse to get blown out 3 times a season, period.
I have never had faith in Roman for the long term goals and this season is only strengthening that belief. With a depleted OL, there is no creativity to scheme around it with, RB screens, bubble screens, bunch formation routes, orbit motions or for Christs sake even a RB check down built into the play.
I am not agreeing with this take yet, but just for arguments sake, is it possible the modern NFL game has passed Harbaugh by? Are we sure he isnโt back in the NFL because he was forced out of Michigan by the NCAA? Are we sure his style of offense that worked in college, will translate to the modern NFL? How many top tier skill position players were drafted from his teams at Michigan? It looks like the best QB, and only Rd1 selection at the position he had there isnโt an NFL starting caliber player.
That is one knock on the CEO style HC, he is beholden to his staff to be successful, which means he needs to hit on hiring the right people or being able to pivot from them. But like you said, maybe his relationships in the NFL are to outdated to have an impact in todayโs game.
All in all, when itโs said and done, the team will probably have a winning record and might make a playoff, but IMO, the team has not advanced enough from last season to where we are fine tuning the roster this offseason to be in the legit SB contention next year. There is just to much work to do to the roster. Of course there is a possibility we crush the FA period and draft and the roster could look well deserving of a SB contender, but I think this team is farther away from that now than they should be after year 2 of this regime. As always I would be delighted to be proven wrong.
Harbaugh was Michigan HC 2015-2023, so here is a list of players drafted who played at Michigan in 2019-2024 (starting with 2019 to ensure all should have been recruited and played their full Michigan careers under Harbaugh):
2025 round 1, pick 5 overall, DT Mason Graham, CLE
2025 round 1, pick 10 overall, TE Colston Loveland, CHI
2025 round 1, pick 13 overall, DT Kenneth Grant, MIA
2025 round 2, pick 47 overall, CB Will Johnson, ARI
2025 round 3, pick 90 overall, DE Josaiah Stewart, LAR
2025 round 6, pick 188 overall, RB Kalel Mullings, TEN
2025 round 6, pick 191 overall, OT Myles Hinton, PHI
2024 round 1, pick 10 overall, QB J.J. McCarthy, MIN
2024 round 2, pick 49 overall, DL Kris Jenkins, CIN
2024 round 2, pick 50 overall, DB Mike Sainristil, WAS
2024 round 3, pick 69 overall, LB Junior Colson, LAC
2024 round 3, pick 83 overall, RB Blake Corum, LAR
2024 round 3, pick 84 overall, WR Roman Wilson, PIT
2024 round 3, pick 85 overall, OL Zak Zinter, CLE
2024 round 4, pick 121 overall, TE AJ Barner, SEA
2024 round 5, pick 172 overall, OL Trevor Keegan, PHI
2024 round 7, pick 240 overall, LB Michael Barrett, CAR
2024 round 7, pick 249 overall, OL LaDarius Henderson, HOU
2024 round 7, pick 252 overall, DE Jaylen Harrell, TEN
2024 round 7, pick 253 overall, WR Cornelius Johnson, LAC
2023 round 1, pick 26 overall, DL Mazi Smith, DAL
2023 round 2, pick 58 overall, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL
2023 round 2, pick 60 overall, DB DJ Turner, CIN
2023 round 3, pick 99 overall, K Jake Moody, SFO
2023 round 5, pick 151 overall, DE Mike Morris, SEA
2023 round 5, pick 154 overall, C Olusegun Oluwatimi, SEA
2023 round 6, pick 217 overall, P Brad Robbins, CIN
2023 round 7, pick 238 overall, OL Ryan Hayes, MIA
2023 round 7, pick 253 overall, WR Ronnie Bell, SFO
2022 round 1, pick 2 overall, DE Aidan Hutchinson, DET
2022 round 1, pick 31 overall, DB Daxton Hill, CIN
2022 round 2, pick 45 overall, LB David Ojabo, BAL
2022 round 4, pick 131 overall, RB Hassan Haskins, TEN
2022 round 7, pick 245 overall, OL Andrew Stueber, NWE
2021 round 1, pick 21 overall, DL Kwity Paye, IND
2021 round 3, pick 68 overall, OL Jalen Mayfield, ATL
2021 round 3, pick 89 overall, WR Nico Collins, HOU
2021 round 3, pick 102 overall, DB Ambry Thomas, SFO
2021 round 5, pick 177 overall, LB Cameron McGrone, NWE
2021 round 5, pick 184 overall, FB Ben Mason, BAL
2021 round 6, pick 202 overall, RB Chris Evans, CIN
2021 round 6, pick 225 overall, LS Camaron Cheeseman, WAS
2020 round 1, pick 24 overall, C Cesar Ruiz, NOR
2020 round 2, pick 60 overall, LB Joshua Uche, NWE
2020 round 4, pick 143 overall, G Ben Bredeson, BAL
2020 round 5, pick 162 overall, LB Khaleke Hudson, WAS
2020 round 5, pick 177 overall, DE Michael Danna, KAN
2020 round 6, pick 182 overall, G Michael Onwenu, NWE
2020 round 6, pick 187 overall, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE
2020 round 6, pick 192 overall, T Jon Runyan Jr., GNB
2020 round 6, pick 205 overall, S Josh Metellus, MIN
2020 round 6, pick 213 overall, LB Jordan Glasgow, IND
2019 round 1, pick 10 overall, LB Devin Bush Jr., PIT
2019 round 1, pick 12 overall, LB Rashan Gary, GNB
2019 round 3, pick 77 overall, DE Chase Winovich, NWE
2019 round 3, pick 79 overall, CB David Long, LAR
2019 round 5, pick 141 overall, TE Zach Gentry, PIT
I bolded the offensive skill players. Comments/questions:
1. Having 57 players drafted in 7 draft classes is impressive.
2. More OL and defense than offensive skill players, which is completely unsurprising for a Harbaugh program.
3. Still some very strong offensive skill players, like Collins and Loveland and some others still with quality potential, like Corum and Barner.
4. As for McCarthy, I think you are being extremely premature in acting like the book is already written and closed for him in the NFL. There are examples of players who didn’t excel right away but did deeper into their careers (e.g., Geno Smith, Sam Darnold).
5. I know you said you aren’t agreeing with the take yet that the NFL game has passed by Harbaugh, yet you wrote it all out. McCoy got 4 years. Lynn got 4 years. Staley got 3 years. Shouldn’t we give Harbaugh 3-4 years before passing final judgment?
Like I said, Iโm not in that camp yet and there will still need to be more football played to provide a bigger sample size, but the guy he put his faith in to run the offense leaves a lot to be desired from an innovative standpoint.
Also that list of drafted players strengthens my point. Having only two Rd1 skill players after a decade at a top 10 college program seems extremely light.
Some Coaches Film Clips from the Jags game I posted to X
Clip 1: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1990511596301660479
Clip 2: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1990521616867176857
Clip 3: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1990524543170187350
Clip 4: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1990728878831415737
Clip 5: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1990731878836678773
Clip 6: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1990879481570209841
Clip 7: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1990871504037556487
Clip 8: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1990925782156468282
Clip 9: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1990937044076613837
Clip 10: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1990954895504257467