We’ve just released Episode 107 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis for Episode 107 is below:
TDU IS BACK IN TOWN! After a restful break, we return to the airwaves to discuss all the recent Chargers news and the team’s 2025 offseason plan. Oh yes, the Big Bear, Joey Bosa has been released. The Combine has come and gone. But there are still so many questions left for us to answer. Should other players be cut? Is a Metcalf Mega Trade on the horizon? Which free agents (internal or external) will Hortiz sign? We address it all on our first show of TDU Season 4. Don’t miss it!”
You can also listen on Spotify below (or download on audio wherever you like to listen to podcasts):
As always, you can support us by doing any or all of the following:
– Rec’ing this post and leaving any thoughts/feedback you have in the comments section below.
– Following us on Twitter (and ‘liking’ our tweets) at @TDU_Chargers, or individually, at @TDU_Alister, @TDU_Jack and @TDU_Andy.
– ‘Subscribing’ to our YouTube channel, clicking the ‘Like’ button for today’s episode, and engaging with us in the comments section.
– Giving us a rating and leaving a review on the Thunder Down Under Podcast page on Apple Podcasts (and ‘subscribing’).
– Spreading the good word to all of your awesome Chargers friends and family and encouraging them to listen to our show (and engage with us on social media).
Hope you enjoy the episode! Thanks so much for listening 🙂
Alister (@TDU_Alister)
Zeitler signed with the Titans. So missed out on him, Fries, Mekari, Banks, and Bredeson, among other guards.
As far as I know, the best guards still available are Teven Jenkins, Mekhi Becton, and Will Hernandez. I hope they will sign at least one of them.
Engram signs 2 year deal with Broncos
Cooper Kupp being released….any interest in a slow-ish vet?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6196402/2025/03/12/chargers-free-agency-reset-kevin-zeitler/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=12566676&source=dailyemail
Seems like the blush is coming off the Hortiz/Harbaugh rose a bit prematurely, IMO. We were pretty clearly told that they weren’t going to make splashy, top of the market signings. To date, that’s right where we are.
I’m excited to see them draft and develop. My biggest concern(s) right now that are questionable to be resolved via the draft? Weapons for Herbert (particularly TE for me) and an upgrade at center. I think we can draft an upgrade to Pipkins. If the top 2 draft TE’s are gone, the rest are unproven and/or “just guys”.
Poona was too expensive, IMO. It’s a deep DT class. We need to draft 1-2. Same for edge, though that class isn’t as deep. WR is a question….moreso with Palmer gone but I believe his production can be replaced pretty easily. There are guys in the draft who will be available later that match his size and ability.
I know some don’t like the Harris signing. I think he’ll fit right in with what Harbaugh wants and he’s been durable. Remember what Harbaugh said about availability being the best ability? That’s likely why Bozeman got his new contract too.
My biggest 👍🏼 is that Mack is back for a reasonable amount. I know he’s 34 and can’t produce forever. I also know he brings a presence to this team that isn’t easily replaced and I don’t mean just on the field.
I’m not mad at our staff/front office at all. I don’t think 2025 is our SB year. I wanna see a deeper playoff run and growth in the “Harbaugh vision”. I think 2026 is the reasonable exoectation for a championship. If it’s sooner, yay.
I’m good with not overpaying, ours or theirs. Let’s get some draft and develop going.
My biggest concern remains center.
We can wait for the overpriced first coupla days to pass. It isn’t the end of times. We got Mack back, and at a real bargain.
Thanks, Khalil!
Feeling fairly frustrated and impatient right now.
This is not a leadership team that is going to make splashy FA signings.
I think I would have paid Ford, but my guess is that the team’s plan is to build through the draft.
Adams went for about the top of what I thought would have been reasonable. No way I would have paid the $ and draft capitol for Metcalf. Surprised by how much Palmer signed for.
The worst thing I’ve seen today is re-signing Bozeman. I do not want to watch another season of Herbert getting crushed while Brad is standing around blocking air.
Fries, Mekhi Becton (a 6’7″, 363lbs dude should make the OL more physical)
But, hey, we signed Najee!!! Ugh.
https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1899244546472726951
https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1899284642152481243
They told us they weren’t going after players that would likely command big salaries. That’s how they’re proceeding.
Results so far:
No WR upgrade
No G upgrade
No C upgrade
No TE upgrade
Edge downgrade
IDL downgrade
RB change, but upgrade/downgrade (Harris vs. Dobbins/Edwards) unclear at this point
CB change, but upgrade/downgrade (Jackson vs. Fulton) unclear at this point
I expect both IDL (deep DT class) and IOL to be addressed in the draft. And there are still FA guards available, just as there are still FA TE’s available.
I’m on record since last year with my concerns about center. Bozeman likely got his deal because he was available all year. I may have misspoke about just what Hortiz said but I know Harbaugh made the statement that availability is the best ability. Nearly certain it was said in the Pat McAfee interview at the Combine.
Edge….again, I expect a draft pick. Maybe 2. And with Bosa’s injury history? I think there’s room to get better in the draft.
You were on record, IIRC, saying you had no interest in Harris. Like it or not, I think he fits the mold of a Harbaugh guy….tough and available. He’s stayed healthy….Dobbins doesn’t have that history.
CB I don’t know. I do know Jackson is a fit for what Minter prefers to do which is mostly run zone. And he’s a good run defender. I’m more than ok with not having another JC Jackson situation.
I want to see the team headed more in the draft and develop direction. This may be a turn toward that. We’ll see. I think Hortiz stayed true to what he said, even though I did overstate it. He’s making responsible moves. Maybe we fans just need to be a bit more patient.
One more thing re: center…..I would have been fine with Kelly, especially at $9M/yr, but he could just as easily become a Linsley signing since he’s 30+ and coming off of an injury, I believe?
You said repeatedly Dalman wasn’t a fit so let’s take the other quality FA center off the board.
@buck-melanoma
Drafting and developing is fine. I’m all for it. But by my count, they ideally need at least 7 new starters:
RB 1a/b – to pair with Harris; not on roster
WR 2 – to upgrade Johnston and pair with McConkey; not on roster
TE 1a/b – to pair with Dissly; not on roster
RG – to replace Pipkins
IDL (NT) – to replace Ford
IDL (pass rusher) – to replace Fox
Edge 1a/b – to replace Joey and pair with Mack
Not to mention other key depth roles (WR, C, QB2, LB, CB, S). No way to adequately address all of that in one draft, hence the need to use the prodigious cap space to properly augment the draft and ideally do it to obtain multiple high quality starters.
It obviously makes sense to pay top of market value for players, as long as you identify the right players. The Chargers are doing that with Herbert and James now, and will soon likely sign Slater to a top of market extension this offseason.
Of course, we know they weren’t willing to do it for Bosa, Allen, or Williams. Maybe the latter two because of their valuation of the WR position, hard to know for sure. Bosa presumably just wasn’t a value at the price established by the previous front office.
But we know this front office and coaching staff values the trenches. The Chargers clearly need OL upgrades to as many as all 3 IOL positions, and they clearly need 2 starter caliber IDL. Even ignoring all of the other positions, those are 5 positions in the trenches. More than anything, I am surprised that have made zero moves to address those needs so far.
I can’t figure out how they are going to spend their cap space. Barring injuries or unexpected events, I can identify 44 of the final 53 man roster spots:
27 core players who entered offseason under contract for 2025
Justin Herbert
Derwin James
Rashawn Slater
Joe Alt
Alohi Gilman
Will Dissly
Zion Johnson
Quentin Johnston
Bud Dupree
Jamaree Salyer
Cameron Dicker
Ladd McConkey
Tuli Tuipulotu
Daiyan Henley
Josh Harris
Junior Colson
Derius Davis
Otito Ogbonnia
Justin Eboigbe
Ja’Sir Taylor
Deane Leonard
Hassan Haskins
Scott Matlock
Tarheeb Still
Cam Hart
Kimani Vidal
Brenden Rice
7 players signed to new contracts for 2025 so far
Khalil Mack
Najee Harris
Donte Jackson
Elijah Molden
J.K. Scott
Bradley Bozeman
Tucker Fisk
10 draft picks
I realize all 10 probably won’t make the final roster, but most should, so this cost seems to be at least a reasonable proxy
So there are 9 more spots to fill, and my calculations show they have more than $54M in 2025 cap space available to do it, having already accounted for those 44 players and dead cap, and having reserved around $11.2M for in season expenses.
I expect most of those 9 positions to go to players like Smartt, Fehoko, Niemann, Dye, Heinicke or equivalent players, who will collectively account for $10M or less against the 2025 cap. So maybe $44M for 4-6 higher paid positions.
It seems possible that Slater’s extension could raise his cap number a bit, even though that situation typically results in a cap hit reduction. But even if it goes up, it shouldn’t be by much.
I would love to believe the Ravens could cut Mark Andrews before his roster bonus due Monday and the Chargers could sign him to a multi-year deal. But will they actually cut him?
Beyond that I’m kind of stumped for now.
Only have a brief moment, but wanted to do a quick post:
Great job on the podcast. I am continually impressed (and a little embarrassed) that three dudes from Australia know more about football than I do.
I agree with the assessment of Metcalf. No way he was worth 5/$150. That’s crazy. Its also crazy that the Bills paid Palmer 3/$36. Good time to be a WR. I guess the focus for the Chargers now is draft & develop.
Good deal retaining Mack. Makes sense for both sides.
Ford going to the Rams for 3/$30 is a bit frustrating. I would rather have kept him for that price, but the plan now has to be drafting 2 or more interior DL in a very deep draft. That and resigning Tart.
WTF are the Chargers going to spend their cap on? Has to be interior OL.
Poona not being retained at that price was my most frustrating non-move of the day. If you’d told me yday that we’d exit Day 1 of free agency with Donte Jackson & Najee Harris as the two main moves, I’d have looked like a stunned mullet.
I’m trying to keep perspective because we know the team we have in August will look completely different, and we may well form the view (by then) that Horitz had a great offseason and spent wisely. But after Day 1 I understand why most are very disappointed…
My expectations for today were very low. This is not a front office that is going to pay splashy external FAs. That’s just not what they do (and I think I agree with the approach). The things that sort-of surprised me that I do not like:
What I want the team to do:
I would say IOL could be an option in Rd1, but the talent pool just isn’t there IMO outside of Zabel who still might be a reach at #22 . Taking playmakers out of the equation in Rd1 leaves us with Edge, DT or CB. Kenneth Grant might be an option also, but the way this free agency is going, we will need just about everything but QB in the draft.
For the draft, I think they’re going to have a plan going in, but will react to the way the board falls, which I agree with. They can then backfill with tier 2 FAs after the draft (similar to last year).
Not flashy, but this is the way quality rosters are built.
Look, I believe in Hortiz and he is who I wanted to run the ship because I thought he was seasoned under one of the best FO in the league for 20 years. But I question two things.
1. Is this another Belechick type situation where coaches who were hired from his staff (Mangini, McDaniels, Patricia, Judge) tried to emulate him to a fault instead of being their own person? I get that he came from a successful Ravens organization, but that culture has been built for decades. They didn’t start out that way. We don’t have to be a carbon copy of their process immediately. We might need to take a different route to eventually get to where they are now.
2. Could Harbaugh be the problem with the roster building? He had his issues with the GM in SF, which led him to be cast off. Was it that he wanted to much control of how the roster was built or had a stale vision for team construction from his playing days? After all he had no such constraints in college. You can’t pick the players, the players pick you. If this is the case, maybe Hortiz is acquiescing to him now in roster build?
Of course, this is just speculation and maybe completely off base, but I am having a hard time seeing the plan for this roster build/free agency cycle.
However, it’s still super early. When they DO start spending (hopefully not if 🙂 ) that money can go surprisingly fast.
On to Darius Slayton discussions, it seems.
Cancel the debate. Both are gone.
I prefer Metcalf to Adams as the much better fit for the Chargers. In 2020, the deep passing attack was a thing of beauty. Herbert’s elite ability in that aspect of the game was on full display. It was the best part of our offense.
Unfortunately, for reasons escaping all understanding Telesco/Staley/Lombardi completely abandoned that approach in not valuing the retention of deep speed at WR.
We have a chance to fix that in part by securing the services of a strong and very fast X receiver in his prime in Metcalf in a year in which useful options at WR are limited in both the draft and free agency.
Our current offense focuses more on the intermediate and longer passing game than Lombardi’s offense did because that kind of passing game is a superior complement to Roman’s ground attack than the short passing game which takes place in the same vertical range as the ground game does.
Adams, by contrast, is 32 and will be in decline soon. Also, Adams has feasted on anticipatory back shoulder passes, which is not Herbert’s strength because it never has had to be in light of his natural arm talent. I do not see a great fit with Adams either with Herbert or with what our offense could be.
I believe that a better idea would be to not only to acquire Metcalf, but also to draft Golden or Egbuka at 1-22 (assuming Egbuka runs in the 4.3s) and to follow that up by selecting one trick pony Deont’e Thornton late in the draft (possibly even round 7).
I would sign Evan Engram.
Not only will speed everywhere force defenses to remain honest, which should help both the running game and McConkey, but it should also help create mismatches that can be exploited with slower defenders being forced to keep pace with faster receivers, something very different than has been the case with Allen, Williams, Palmer, et cetera, who are typically not going to beat defenders downfield with any regularity.
In my world, Palmer would be gone. Johnston would get to develop as one heck of a WR4. Thornton would be the do not break glass except in case of emeregency WR5 or even WR6 with Davis getting some occasional run. I do not have much faith in Rice or any other WRs.
I do realize that even if we re-sign our own, we have or could potentially have needs at C, RG, TE, EDGE, DT, RB and CB that require attention. I would re-sign Dobbins, Ford and Tart. I would not pursue/release Samuel, Palmer, Pipkins. I would consider re-signing Bozeman and Perryman as depth on team friendly deals. I would pursue a good EDGE (Young, Sweat) in free agency. I like the previously discussed notion of signing Kelly and Fries.
As for the draft, I like the scarce good WR at 1-22 as noted above. I really like Tyler Warren and like Jeanty, but they will not be there at 1-22. Honestly, I think skillsets similar to Loveland’s can be acquired later in the draft, so I do not think we need to go there at 1-22 despite the “bazillion” mock drafts that have us going that way. I think there are good EDGE players in the round 2-3 range. I would love for us to be able to get both Bhayshul Tuten (like the idea of having a second homerun hitter at RB if we re-sign Dobbins) and a good C on day 3, but I have reservations about that as a possibility.
Anyway, that is my $.02.
Can free agency arrive please already so we can see what Hortiz chooses to do and analyse it!
Agree, Adams > Metcalf, all things considered. I do not view Adams as a diva. He definitely wants the ball and can get frustrated when he doesn’t get it, but that is often when he doesn’t get it because the QB can’t get it to him. I don’t think that latter aspect will be a problem with Herbert.
The other big topic right now is DK Metcalf v Davante Adams
I fall in the Davante camp. Some relevant stats below but, in a nutshell, I view Metcalf as a ‘feast or famine’ quite inefficient WR who’s produced in Seattle because he gets a high volume share. He will likely see a significantly reduced volume in our Offense and when you factor in his salary demands plus what it would cost to acquire him, the risks start stacking up too high (for me). If he becomes a Charger though, I will try to see the upside and there is some.
Davante has become slightly less efficient with age, and some are concerned about his “Diva behaviour”. But I think he’ll be cheaper than Metcalf, won’t cost draft capital to acquire, and nobody viewed this guy as a Diva when he was happy and dominating in Green Bay. I would expect his inner competitive beast to bring his best to bear playing for Jim Harbaugh in LA. He wins in ways we’re sorely lacking (outside of McConkey) and his hands are reliable.
DK Metcalf?
Trading for DK Metcalf. He would be under contract only for 2025 at a cap hit of $10.875m. He would want an extension as part of the deal.
27yo, 6’3”, 229pounds, 74.3 Grade last season, 106 targets, 66 catches, 992 yds, 5 TDs (15.0ypc).
6 seasons, 464 catches, 6,775 yds, 53 TDs.
6 Drops in 2023, 5 Drops in 2022.
CTC%: 36.6% in 2024 and 29.0% in 2023:
REC%: 61.1% (2024 – 82nd of 112), 58.9% (2023 – 73rd of 96), 65.8% in 2022, 62.5% career.
Incredible straight-line athlete.
152 targets (2022), 112 targets (2023), 108 targets (2024). McConkey had 124 targets last season (110 in regular season).
#38 in YAC in 2024, #43 in Yards Per Route Run, #91 True Catch Rate (85.7%), #87 in Target Separation (PlayerProfiler).
Win Rate v Man (#5 – 42.5%)
Davante Adams?
$38.25m cap hit in 2025 but Jets will cut him to save close to $30m in cap space. More likely a guy to be signed following release.
yo, 6’1”, 215 pounds, 11 seasons in the NFL, 85 catches, 1,062 yds, 8 TDs last season for Raiders/Jets.
He’s become less efficient over time. Rec% used to be 70% +, now 59-63%. True Catch Rate #53 . #31 Yards Per Route Run.
ADOT is 8.3yds (#84). Win Rate v Man (#26). Target Separation is #50 .
See more analytics here.
Metcalf:
Adams:
I left my run late Stormcloud, but I’ll share my offseason plan now that I’ve pieced it together. Discussed most of it on the show. Let me know what you think.
Extensions/Cuts
Extend Rashawn Slater
Due $19.04m in 2025. Can maintain similar cap hit under extension
Sign to 5yr, $150m, $90m guarantee, $30m per year
Wirfs 5yr, $140m, $88m guaranteed, $28.125m per year
Penei Sewell 4yr, $112m, $85m guaranteed, $28m per year
Trent Williams, $27.553m per year
Christian Darrisaw, $26m per year
Extend Khalil Mack
Played for $19.883m per year in 3 seasons for Chargers
Attempt to Sign to 2yr, $44m, $24m guaranteed
Same pay as Trey Hendrickson and Bradley Chubb (11th and 12th highest paid edge rushers)
Apparently numerous teams have trade interest (Bears, Bucs). Would to prefer to keep him unless price gets significantly higher than what I’ve offered
Cut Bosa – $36.47m cap hit (save $25.36m)
Cut Pipkins – $9.25m cap hit (save $6.75m)
Could attempt to trade but I’ve seen enough
Cut Gus Edwards – $4.25m cap hit (save $3.15m)
Find RB2 in the Draft to pair with veteran
Cut Bud Dupree – $3.625m cap hit (save $2.985m)
Maybe controversial but I think you can find a better Edge 4 in free agency. I prefer Derek Barnett from the Texans.
Internal FAsPlayers I would not attempt to re-sign
QB Easton Stick (30yo, played for $2.667m in 2024)
WR D.J Chark (29yo, played for $2.065m in 2024)
WR Jalen Reagor (26yo)
TE Hayden Hurst (32yp, played for $1.125m in 2024)
Edge Chris Rumph (27yo)
DT Morgan Fox (31yo, played for an average of $3.75m on last deal)
LB Shaq Quarterman (28yo)
CB Asante Samuel Jnr (26yo)
CB Eli Apple (30yo)
S Marcus Maye (32yo)
C Brenden Jaimes (26yo)
P J.K. Scott (29yo, played for $2m in 2024)
I could be talked out of this one for the sake of continuity. I think we could find someone with higher upside in the Draft (eg, Australian James Burnip from Alabama)
Players I would attempt to re-sign.
The final 4 players I’ve listed I would offer a below market contract with a view that there are reasonable external FA replacements available. Happy to have them back at under market cost but think I would let them test the market.
DT Poona Ford (30yo, played for $1.79m in 2024)
Projected at 1yr, $3.5m
Ridiculous variance in potential contract value.
Played better in 2024 than these players who made $18m+ per season Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, Jeffery Simmons, Quinnen Williams, Derrick Brown
Drawing significant interest according to Popper. I would be happy to pay up to $13m per year for him (3 years with about half guaranteed)
DT Teair Tart (28yo, played for $1.125m in 2024)
Projected at 1yr, $2.5m
LB Troy Dye (29yo, played for $1.79m in 2024)
1yr, $2m
LB Nick Niemann (28yo)
C Bradley Bozeman (31yo, played for $1.125m 2024)
Back-up Center role
WR Simi Fehoko (28yo)
G Sam Mustipher (29yo)
QB Taylor Heinicke (32yo, played for $2.53m in 2024)
1yr, $2.5m
S Tony Jefferson (33yo)
RB J.K. Dobbins (27yo, played for $1.61m in 2024)
Projected at 2yrs, $7m ($4m guaranteed)
WR Josh Palmer (26yo)
Projected at 2yr, $13m ($7.25m guaranteed)
LB Denzel Perryman (33yo, played for $2.3m in 2024)
1 yr, $2m
CB Kristian Fulton (27yo, played for $2.445m in 2024)
Projected at 2 yrs, $11.5m ($6.5m guaranteed)
This would make him around the price of Rasul Douglas, Stephon Gilmore and Darious Williams.
About the 29th highest paid corner.
Among the 98 CBs PFF graded with at least 500 snaps, Fulton’s grade (68.9) ranked 34th
External FAs
These are players I like either because of their price point, scheme fit, or potential upside. I’m really only interested in the “Good Options”. Some of the “Other Options” I could be tempted into but probably wouldn’t approve (likely price point too high or I don’t like the fit).
WR
Good options:
Darius Slayton (28yo, projected at 3yr, $37.5m ($25m guaranteed)).
Explosive player with good YAC skills coming off a poor season (573 yds)
In 6 seasons with the Giants had 3,989 receiving ds and 21 TDs (4x seasons > 700 yards)
Mike Williams (30yo, projected at 1yr, $6m)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (30yo, projected at 1yr, $6m)
Traded from Buffalo to New Orleans mid-season and made a big impact: 64 yds, 51 yds, 36 yds TD, 87 yds TD, 109 yds 2 TDs in a 5-game stretch
Other options:
Chris Godwin (29yo, projected at 3yrs, $60m ($40m guaranteed), played 397 snaps in 2024 before suffering season-ending ankle dislocation
Stefon Diggs (31yo, projected at 1yr, $16m), played 430 snaps before suffering an ACL tear
Keenan Allen (32.8yo)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (27.9yo)
Bad options:
Amari Cooper
DeAndre Hopkins
Marquise Brown
Diontae Johnson
RBs
Good options:
Nick Chubb (29.1yo, coming off ugly 2023 knee injury, wasn’t himself in 2024 playing only 252 snaps, projected at 1yr, $3m)
High risk, high reward. Between him and JK Dobbins I understand taking Dobbins but would be happy to take a calculated swing on Chubb plus draft a back early on Day 3
Other options:
Najee Harris (26.9yo, projected at 3yrs, $34.5m ($22.5m guaranteed), 2nd most rushing attempts since entering the league in 2021 (behind Derrick Henry), 4,316 yds (rank 5th int hat period, yards after contact places fourth. He’s available and versatile, but not explosive.
Aaron Jones (30.2yp, projected at 2yrs, $14m ($8 guaranteed) coming off 1 yr in Minnesota where he had a 75.4 grade, 1,186 yds from 268 carries (4.4 ypc), 5 TDs, 5 Fumbles, 54 catches, 420 yds
Bad options:
Javonte Williams
WRs
Good options:
Darius Slayton (28yo, projected at 3yr, $37.5m ($25m guaranteed)).
Explosive player with good YAC skills coming off a poor season (573 yds)
In 6 seasons with the Giants had 3,989 receiving ds and 21 TDs (4x seasons > 700 yards)
Mike Williams (30yo, projected at 1yr, $6m)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (30yo, projected at 1yr, $6m)
Traded from Buffalo to New Orleans mid-season and made a bit impact: 64 yds, 51 yds, 36 yds TD, 87 yds TD, 109 yds 2 TDs in a 5-game stretch
Other options:
Chris Godwin (29yo, projected at 3yrs, $60m ($40m guaranteed), played 397 snaps in 2024 before suffering season-ending ankle dislocation
Stefon Diggs (31yo, projected at 1yr, $16m), played 430 snaps before suffering an ACL tear
Keenan Allen (32.8yo)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (27.9yo)
Bad options:
Amari Cooper
DeAndre Hopkins
Marquise Brown
Diontae Johnson
TEs
Good options:
Evan Engram (30.5yo, former 1st round pick (23 overall) to the Giants in 2017). 6’3”, 240 pounds, 4.42s forty. 8 seasons in the NFL (5 with Giants, 3 with Jaguars). 140 targets in 2023 (114 catches, 963 yds, 4 TDs). Never eclipsed 1,000 yds in a season but often 700-900. 2024 had 62 targets, 47 receptions, 365 yds, TD (72.5 Grade). Played 9 games. Suffered a hamstring in Wk 1 and didn’t play Wks 2-5. Ruled out for the season after tearing his labrum in Wk 14 v the Titans. His cap hit in 2025 would’ve ben $19.49m (final year of backloaded deal, AAV $13.75m 6th highest paid TE).
Other options:
Mike Gesicki (29.4yo, 71.5 Grade in 2023 with Bengals, projected at 2yrs, $12m ($6.25m guaranteed). Big catch radius. Can’t run block. 65 catches, 665yds, 2 TDs in 2024. Has eclipsed 700 receiving yards in two previous seasons (7 year career). 23 career TDs. Big slot and RZ weapon.
Juwan Johnson (28.4yo, projected at 3yrs, $29.5m ($17m guaranteed). Herbert’s teammate at Oregon. Run blocking grades below 55.0 past 3 seasons. Healthy player. 548 yards receiving last season, 3 TDs. Would be reasonably productive but keep us in realm of Jared Cook, Gerald Everett, Will Dissly calibre TEs.
Bad options:
Tyler Conklin
Zach Ertz
Austin Hooper
Center
Good options:
None. Prefer to enter the Draft with the plan being Zion/Bozeman unless something better materialises in the draft or post-draft via trade.
Other options:
Drew Dalman (26.3yo, 78.8 Grade in 2024 with Falcons, projected at 4yrs, $56m ($30m guaranteed). Great run blocker but different scheme and he’s 6’3”, 300 pounds. Former Stanford Cardinal. Football family (Dad Chris was a Center for the 49ers).
Ryan Kelly (31.7yo, 67.0 Grade in 2024 with Colts. Underwent surgery on his knee hallway through 2024 and was mulling retirement. Projected a 2yrs, $19m ($8m guaranteed)
Bad options:
Coleman Shelton (Chicago)
Guard
Good options:
Kevin Zeitler (34.9yo, 1yr, $6.25m). 86.8 Grade for the Lions last season 1,047 snaps. 87.2 Run Blocking Grade. Plays exclusively at RG (13,494 career snaps cf 2 snaps at left guard). Spent 2021-2023 with the Ravens. Former First Round pick from Wisconsin drafted by the Bengals. Very balanced player. He’s basically never missed a game in 13 seasons. Lowest ever single season grade is 65.9. Always grades 75.0 or above. 6’4”, 340 pounds.
Other options:
James Daniels (27.4yo), projected at 1yr, $5.5m. 92.0 Grade for the Steelers last season from 209 snaps. Tore his achilles. Gap scheme fit. 6’4”, 327 pounds. Former Iowa Hawkeye taken by the Bears in Round 2 (Pick 39 overall) in 2018. Previous highest graded was 71.8 in 2021. He’s been a steady player who’s a better run blocker.
Will Fries (26.9yo), projected at 4yrs, $57.25m ($30m). Way too high a price. 86.9 Grade from 268 snaps in 2024 for the Colts. Fractured his tibia in Wk 5 and missed the rest of the season. 6’6”, 305 pounds (thin for a tall guy). 84.9 Run Blocking Grade. 74.9 Pass Blocking Grade. Highest season grade before this year was 61.2 in 2024 where he played 1,125 snaps. Former Penn State Nittany Lion taken in the 7th
Brandon Scherff (33.1yo, 1yr, $6m) 64.7 Grade for the Jaguars last year. Very sound gap scheme fit. 6’5”, 315 pounds. Run Blocking grade used to be a strength but has dropped off. Still steady in pass pro. 9,133 career snaps at Right Guard (never played anywhere else). 11 seasons in the NFL (8 with the Redskins as the 5th overall pick in 2015 Draft from Wisconsin). Last 3 seasons with Jacksonville.
Patrick Mekari (27.5yo, 3yrs, $20.63m, $11m guaranteed). 6 seasons with the Ravens playing all over (but recently Left Guard). Has literally played more than 250 snaps at every spot on the line. Steady player but not a world beater. UDFA from California. 59.0 Grade last season, usually hovers between 62.0 and 70.0.
Bad options:
Mekhi Becton
Aaron Banks (49ers)
Will Hernandez (Cardinals)
Dalton Risner (Vikings)
Matt Pryor (Bears)
Laken Tomlinson (Seahawks)
Evan Brown (Cardinals)
Trystan Colon (Cardinals)
CB
Good options:
J. Reed (28.2yo, Jets, projected at 3yrs, $42m ($27.5m guaranteed). 70.7 Grade last season. Perfect scheme fit. Zone corner who tackles well. 5’9”, 188 pounds. 4.51s forty. Former 5th round pick from Kansas State. 7 seasons. Always grade 75.0-80.0. Only 6 career INTs. But lockdown in coverage with only 59.6% of target being caught across his career. 2 TDs allowed on the season.
Darius Slay (34.1yo, Eagles, due $24.92m in 2025 but cut, played for $13.76m in 2024). 71.9 Grade last season, 4 TDs allowed, 1x INT. Played every game and won the Super Bowl. 6’0”. 190 pounds, 4.36s forty, Former 2nd round pick from Mississippi State (Pick 36 to Lions), 12 seasons. Zone coverage specialist. 1x first-team All-Pro, 29 career INTs.
Other options (good players questionable fit):
Charvarius Ward (28.7yo, 49ers, projected at 3yrs, $43.5m ($25m guaranteed). 56.2 Grade last season but suffer a personal tragedy with baby daughter dying. Zone scheme probably not the right fit either, excelled with the Chiefs in a man heavy system (84.7 Grade in 2024, 5 INTs). 6’1”, 196 pounds. career INTs (2 last season). Reclamation project?
Jaire Alexander (not cut yet) (28.1yo, Packers, due $24.96m in 2025 and $27.38m in 2026 – 3rd highest paid corner in the NFL). 75.2 Grade last season from 7 games (missed 2 games with a quad injury, and then struggled with a PCL). 5’10”, 196 pounds, 4.38s forty, Former 1st round pick from Louiseville (Pick 18 with the Packers), 7 seasons. Zone coverage specialist who’s a 2x second-team All-Pro and has 15 career INTs. Can still play but he’s missed at least 10 games in three of his last four seasons. Interesting character off the field too.
Paulson Adebo (25.6yo, Saints, projected at 3yrs, $40m ($25m guaranteed). Broken femur ended season in Wk 7. Had 3 INTs to that point and a 63.3 Grade. Ball hawk with 10 INTs from 4 seasons. 6’1”, 192 pounds. Run Defense Grade is poor but doesn’t miss tackles. Former 3rd round pick from Stanford. A bit hit or miss in coverage because he’s susceptible to double moves. Gave up 100+ yards in 3 games this season
Carlton Davis (28.1yo, Lions, projected at 3yrs, $42m ($25m guaranteed). 74.5 Grade last season before fracturing jaw in Wk 15. Steady man coverage corner who won a Super Bowl with Tampa. 6’1”, 206 pounds, 4.53s forty, Former 2nd round pick from Auburn. 7 seasons in the NFL, usually grades between 65.0 and 75.0. Solid in both phases. 11 career INTs (2 last season). Picked on in games v the Rams, Seahawks and Packers. 3 TDs allowed on the season.
Bad options:
Rasul Douglas (Bills)
Byron Murphy Jnr (Vikings)
Mike Hilton (Bengals)
Stephon Gilmore (Vikings)
Jonathan Jones (Patriots)
Nate Hobbs (Raiders)
Safeties
Safeties:
Good options:
None. Don’t need one with three good Safeties under contract.
Other options:
Jevon Holland (Dolphins)
Camryn Bynum (Vikings)
Justin Reid (Chiefs)
Justin Simmons (Falcons)
Bad options:
Talanoa Hufanga (49ers)
Harrison Smith (Vikings)
Tre’von Moehrig (Raiders)
Jeremy Chinn (Commanders)
Andre Cisco (Jaguars)
Julian Blackmon (Colts)
LBs
Good options (all upgrades on Perryman and will come down to comparative price point):
Dre Greenlaw (49ers) (27.7yo, 49ers, projected at 1 yr, $6m). Missed all but 34 snaps in 2024 after suffering an Achilles tear in the previous year’s Super Bowl. Very good all-around LB. 6’0”, 230 pounds. Run Defence Grades of 78.0 in 2021-2022. Coverage grades of 79.5 and 82.6 from 2022-2023. 6 seasons of experience.
Elandon Roberts (Steelers) (30.8yo, Steelers, projected at 1yr, $3.25m). 6’1:, 238 pounds. 525 snaps last year, 79.7 Overr Grade, 91.0 Run Defense Grade, 31 Run Stops (14.1% Missed Tackle Rate). 49.6 Coverage Grade. 9 Seasons in the NFL (Patriots/Dolphins/Steelers)
Jamien Sherwood (Jets) (4 seasons for the Jets, projected at 2yrs, $15.5m ($8m guaranteed). 6’2”, 216 pounds. 73.8 Grade last season from 1,063 snaps (first seasons as starter). 77.1 Run Defense Grade. 2 sacks. 109 tackles, 59 Run Stops (10.7% Missed Tackle Rate)
Other options:
Lavonte David (Bucs)
Robert Spillane (Raiders)
Nick Bolton (Chiefs)
Tyrel Dodson (Dolphins)
Bad options:
Bobby Wagner (Commanders)
Ernest Jones (Seahawks)
Eric Kendricks (Cowboys)
Devin Bush (Browns)
DT
Good options:
Calais Campbell (Dolphins) (38.5yo, Dolphins, projected at 1yr, $3m). 6’8”, 282 pounds, 82.3 Grade last season from 616 snaps, 39 pressures, 5 sacks. 85.9 Run Defense Grade. 17 seasons in the NFL (3 in Baltimore from 2020-2022). 110.5 sacks. 3x All Pro, 6x Pro Bowl, Walter Payton Man of the Year in 2019. Still very good, versatile and fit makes too much sense.
Other options:
Milton Williams (Eagles) (26.0, Eagles, projected at 3yrs, $63m ($40m guaranteed). 6 sacks this season during regular season. Never eclipsed 50% of defensive snaps. 2 sacks in the Super Bowl. 76.5 overall grade. 6’3”, 290 pounds. Former 3rd round pick from Louisiana Tech (Pick 73 overall, 2021). This one looks to me like a massive overpay and potential bust signing even if he flashes brilliance. We can draft someone with similar upside in this elite DT class. Find our own Milton Williams.
Tershawn Wharton (Chiefs)
Bad options:
J. Hill (Bengals)
J. Jones (Broncos)
Levi Onwuzurike (Lions)
Jarran Reed (Seahawks)
Sebastian Joseph-Day (Titans)
Ta’Quon Graham (Falcons)
Edge
Good options:
Josh Sweat (Eagles) (27.9yo, projected at 3yrs, $54m ($32.5m guaranteed). 70.0 Grade last season. 8 regular season sacks. 2.5 sacks in the Super Bowl. 6’5”, 265 pounds, 4.53s forty. Former 4th round pick (Florida State, 2018). 54 career sacks (had 15 in 2022). 7 seasons. Cap hit was $8.02m this season). 1x Pro Bowl. There is risk with this pick but he brings much needed juice and as long as the price doesn’t get crazy, I’m interested. I would also be interested if the team decided to pull a trade for a superstar like Hendrickson, Parsons, Garrett as an alternative.
Derek Barnett (Texans) (28.6yo, projected at 1yr, $4.25m). 74.2 Grade last season. 19 pressures, 5 sacks from 413 snaps. 73.9 Run Defense Grade. 6’3”, 259 pounds, 4.88s forty. Former 1st round pick (Pick 4 overall Eagles in 2017). 35 career sacks (8 seasons). Strong run defender but has never quite developed as a rusher.
Other options:
Hasson Reddick (Jets)
Malcolm Koone (Raiders)
Baron Browning (Cardinals)
Chase Young (Saints)
Dante Fowler Jr (Comannders)
Josh Uche (Chiefs)
Bad options:
Dayo Odeyingbo (Colts)
Azeez Ojulari (Giants)
DeMarcus Lawrence (Cowboys)
Chauncey Golston (Cowboys)
Matthew Judon Falcons)
Dennis Gardeck (Cardinals)
Charles Omenihu (Cheifs)
Darrel Taylor (Bears)
Brandon Graham (Eagles)
Carl Lawson (Cowboys)
I’m going to focus on where I disagree, since I agree with a lot:
Out of the players you said you would not re-sign, my one disagreement is with Scott.
Re-signing him keeps a familiar player and avoids the need to find an alternative.
Importantly, based on reporting I have seen, Scott punts in accordance with what Fickens wants, focusing on hang time. If true, I assume Fickens wants him back.
Out of the internal free agent players you said you would re-sign, I disagree with these:
Perryman – I have posted my reasons previously.
Mustipher – He was awful. If you want to re-sign him to fill out the 90 man roster, with the idea that he will be waived at final roster cuts, fine. But nothing more than that for me.
Palmer – He is the epitome of “just a guy,” a replacement level player. If the Chargers sign Adams, as I think they should, and have him and McConkey as 1a/1b, with Johnston as #3 , at least for 2025, I think they can find a better WR4 than Palmer, relative to pricetag.
As for Fulton – He is a maybe for me. I wouldn’t mind if he is re-signed, but I think there is an argument that, given the available cap space, it might make sense to pay more for a better player. I definitely agree with signing a veteran free agent outside CB to start.
For external free agents:
At WR, IMO Adams followed by Godwin are the good options, so I disagree somewhat with how you characterized some of these players.
At RB, IMO all of the RBs you named are bad options. Prefer to re-sign Dobbins and pair with a rookie in a 1a/1b combo.
At TE, IMO Johnson is the only good option, with Gesicki next but not good. No interest in Engram.
At G, I’m fine with Zeitler for 1 year, but prefer Fries and Mekari. I would sign two of these players, release Pipkins, and let Zion and the other two battle it out for the two starting G spots.
At CB:
Ward has said he will not play for a California team again. His daughter died last season, and the associated pain is apparently the root of that. So he may not be a candidate.
Alexander would probably be too expensive.
I would be happy with signing either Davis or Reed.
Don’t agree Slay is a good option. Too old. Don’t want to take the risk.
Don’t agree Douglas should be viewed as a “bad option”. I would be fine with signing him.
Don’t agree with the need to sign any external LBs. IMO Henley is LB1, Colson should step into LB2 role, I would re-sign Dye as LB3, and I would re-sign Niemann and draft 1-2 LBs to compete for the LB4/5 roles (if 5 LBs make final roster).
At IDL:
Don’t agree with signing Campbell. He is a great story, but don’t want to sign a 38.5 year old at the position. Unnecessary risk vs. resources choice. No.
Would absolutely sign Williams. IMO he could be a difference maker if paired with Ford, Tart, and Mack. He is worth a top of market deal IMO.
Agree with signing Sweat, particularly if they cannot re-sign Mack. If they do re-sign Mack, I would still consider signing Sweat, but that would alse enable the team to pivot to the draft for a Bosa replacement.
Guys who I listed as “other options” were players I could stomach (and some of them happily stomach) being signed as alternatives to my ‘good options’ so if moves like Fries>Zeitler happen so won’t really hear a complaint from me.
JK Scott started in my re-sign bucket and moved right at the end. I don’t feel strongly about it and what you’ve said makes sense. I think we could potentially upgade but he’s fine.
No issues with what you’ve said about Perryman (who ideally we’d upgrade with one of the options I mentioned), Mustipher (yes, that was my thinking) and Palmer (who I would offer something very low because of his chemistry with Herbert but apparently there are interested teams, so I fully expect to upgrade there in the Draft or FA – his price will get too high).
Fulton is a maybe guy for me too. I tried to make the point that I’m on the fence about Perryman/Dobbins/Palmer/Fulton. These are all guys who, for the right price, I would consider. But think we can upgrade.
WR: Mike Williams addresses contested catch, MVS addresses speed. Slayton explosive YAC. If our plan was Davante and then one of those three guys to bring their respective skill in addition, I would be happy. Godwin is a good player. Just a little concerned how much is left in the tank and I think he plays his best in the slot (less of a need with Ladd).
RB/TE: No strong disagreement. I think a 3yr deal on Johnson leaves us a little in No Man’s Land at the position but wouldn’t hate. He is a good athlete and Herbert might help him take that step (college teammates, accurate ball placement, etc)
C: The Raiders are apparently going to release Andre James. I think that is now my preferred move. I actually quite like Zion’s chances of moving to Center (I don’t view it the same as Pipkins trying to be a Guard) but this move would help plug a hole before the Draft.
CB: Pretty close to the same page here. Rasul Douglas probably should be in “Other” you’re right. He’s a good scheme fit. Slay’s age is why I have DJ Reed ahead of him, but for 1 season I’d be ok.
LB: I don’t want to hope that Colson does what Henley did last season. I’d rather one more cheap veteran in the room and some of the guys are great value propositions IMO (Elandon Roberts is exceptional against the run).
DT: We probably disagree most here. I’m a little worried about Howie becoming the next Belichick where teams sign his off-cuts at a high price and they don’t produce at the same level not surround by 3-4 talented other DLs. What makes you bullish about Milton in particular? The way he’s been used in a limited role to date in his career makes the price point pretty steep for me. Might well become a stud starter, just think handing him $18-$20m per year is a generous reward for 4 seasons of non-elite play.
Edge: I think my favourite outcome is trading a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Trey Hendrickson tbh. Adding Davante, Hendrickson and then making more calculated savvy signings (like Andre James et al) is probably how I’d attack this offseason.
Thanks for the positive feedback 🙂
His run defense in 2024 was not good, at least per PFF grade, but it was very good in 2022-2023. So it seems he isn’t necessarily a problem there.
My main objective is for the Chargers to sign a near top of market players in some position group where they have need. They may never again be in a position with $90M+ in cap space plus 10 draft picks. They have an amazing amount of choice in how to build the roster around the nucleus… they may never have this level of flexibility again. Need to take advantage of it.
Don’t get me wrong, I understand your reasoning. It’s just too rich for me when I like some of the 3T disruptors in this draft class. I’d rather we find our own rookie version of Milton Williams to develop than pay top dollar for the version that hasn’t played in our system before.
QB – Unnecessary
RB – No reason to sign anyone more expensive than Dobbins; they should re-sign him, but price should be modest
WR – Adams
TE – If Andrews gets released, IMO the Chargers should sign him
OT – Unnecessary
OG – Some good players are available, and I think the Chargers should sign 1-2 of them… none should be top of market in terms of contract value
C – No great player available who is a good scheme fit, though I would be fine with signing Kelly
Edge – Sweat?
IDL – Williams, Odighizuwa
LB – Unnecessary IMO
CB – Should sign starting veteran outside corner and could spend here for Davis or maybe a couple others
S – Unnecessary
To me, it seems like it comes down to WR, Edge, IDL, and CB where they can leverage their tremendous cap space to sign one or more top performers. IMO they two high market players from those position groups.
I realize that the draft is strong at Edge and IDL, so maybe that implies they should sign Adams and a corner like Davis, then take those positions out of play early in the draft in order to focus on others, like Edge and IDL.