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What Should The Chargers Do In Free Agency? – Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast Ep 107

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(@alisterlloyd)
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[#231]
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We've just released Episode 107 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.

Our synopsis for Episode 107 is below:

TDU IS BACK IN TOWN! After a restful break, we return to the airwaves to discuss all the recent Chargers news and the team’s 2025 offseason plan. Oh yes, the Big Bear, Joey Bosa has been released. The Combine has come and gone. But there are still so many questions left for us to answer. Should other players be cut? Is a Metcalf Mega Trade on the horizon? Which free agents (internal or external) will Hortiz sign? We address it all on our first show of TDU Season 4. Don’t miss it!"

You can also listen on Spotify below (or download on audio wherever you like to listen to podcasts):

As always, you can support us by doing any or all of the following:

- Rec'ing this post and leaving any thoughts/feedback you have in the comments section below.

- Following us on Twitter (and 'liking' our tweets) at @TDU_Chargers, or individually, at @TDU_Alister, @TDU_Jack and @TDU_Andy.

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Hope you enjoy the episode! Thanks so much for listening Smile

Alister (@TDU_Alister)


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Posts: 582
Topic starter
(@alisterlloyd)
Prominent Member
Joined: 2 years ago

I left my run late Stormcloud, but I'll share my offseason plan now that I've pieced it together. Discussed most of it on the show. Let me know what you think.

Extensions/Cuts

  • Extend Rashawn Slater
    • Due $19.04m in 2025. Can maintain similar cap hit under extension
    • Sign to 5yr, $150m, $90m guarantee, $30m per year
      • Wirfs 5yr, $140m, $88m guaranteed, $28.125m per year
      • Penei Sewell 4yr, $112m, $85m guaranteed, $28m per year
      • Trent Williams, $27.553m per year
      • Christian Darrisaw, $26m per year
  • Extend Khalil Mack
    • Played for $19.883m per year in 3 seasons for Chargers
    • Attempt to Sign to 2yr, $44m, $24m guaranteed
    • Same pay as Trey Hendrickson and Bradley Chubb (11th and 12th highest paid edge rushers)
    • Apparently numerous teams have trade interest (Bears, Bucs). Would to prefer to keep him unless price gets significantly higher than what I've offered
  • Cut Bosa – $36.47m cap hit (save $25.36m)
  • Cut Pipkins – $9.25m cap hit (save $6.75m)
    • Could attempt to trade but I've seen enough
  • Cut Gus Edwards – $4.25m cap hit (save $3.15m)
    • Find RB2 in the Draft to pair with veteran
  • Cut Bud Dupree - $3.625m cap hit (save $2.985m)
    • Maybe controversial but I think you can find a better Edge 4 in free agency. I prefer Derek Barnett from the Texans.

Internal FAs

Players I would not attempt to re-sign

  • QB Easton Stick (30yo, played for $2.667m in 2024)
  • WR D.J Chark (29yo, played for $2.065m in 2024)
  • WR Jalen Reagor (26yo)
  • TE Hayden Hurst (32yp, played for $1.125m in 2024)
  • Edge Chris Rumph (27yo)
  • DT Morgan Fox (31yo, played for an average of $3.75m on last deal)
  • LB Shaq Quarterman (28yo)
  • CB Asante Samuel Jnr (26yo)
  • CB Eli Apple (30yo)
  • S Marcus Maye (32yo)
  • C Brenden Jaimes (26yo)
  • P J.K. Scott (29yo, played for $2m in 2024)
    • I could be talked out of this one for the sake of continuity. I think we could find someone with higher upside in the Draft (eg, Australian James Burnip from Alabama)

Players I would attempt to re-sign.

The final 4 players I've listed I would offer a below market contract with a view that there are reasonable external FA replacements available. Happy to have them back at under market cost but think I would let them test the market.

  • DT Poona Ford (30yo, played for $1.79m in 2024)
    • Projected at 1yr, $3.5m
    • Ridiculous variance in potential contract value.
    • Played better in 2024 than these players who made $18m+ per season Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, Jeffery Simmons, Quinnen Williams, Derrick Brown
    • Drawing significant interest according to Popper. I would be happy to pay up to $13m per year for him (3 years with about half guaranteed)
  • DT Teair Tart (28yo, played for $1.125m in 2024)
    • Projected at 1yr, $2.5m
  • LB Troy Dye (29yo, played for $1.79m in 2024)
    • 1yr, $2m
  • LB Nick Niemann (28yo)
  • C Bradley Bozeman (31yo, played for $1.125m 2024)
    • Back-up Center role
  • WR Simi Fehoko (28yo)
  • G Sam Mustipher (29yo)
  • QB Taylor Heinicke (32yo, played for $2.53m in 2024)
    • 1yr, $2.5m
  • S Tony Jefferson (33yo)
  • RB J.K. Dobbins (27yo, played for $1.61m in 2024)
    • Projected at 2yrs, $7m ($4m guaranteed)
  • WR Josh Palmer (26yo)
    • Projected at 2yr, $13m ($7.25m guaranteed)
  • LB Denzel Perryman (33yo, played for $2.3m in 2024)
    • 1 yr, $2m
  • CB Kristian Fulton (27yo, played for $2.445m in 2024)
    • Projected at 2 yrs, $11.5m ($6.5m guaranteed)
    • This would make him around the price of Rasul Douglas, Stephon Gilmore and Darious Williams.
    • About the 29th highest paid corner.
    • Among the 98 CBs PFF graded with at least 500 snaps, Fulton’s grade (68.9) ranked 34th

External FAs

These are players I like either because of their price point, scheme fit, or potential upside. I'm really only interested in the "Good Options". Some of the "Other Options" I could be tempted into but probably wouldn't approve (likely price point too high or I don't like the fit).

WR

  • Good options:
    • Darius Slayton (28yo, projected at 3yr, $37.5m ($25m guaranteed)).
      • Explosive player with good YAC skills coming off a poor season (573 yds)
      • In 6 seasons with the Giants had 3,989 receiving ds and 21 TDs (4x seasons > 700 yards)
    • Mike Williams (30yo, projected at 1yr, $6m)
    • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (30yo, projected at 1yr, $6m)
      • Traded from Buffalo to New Orleans mid-season and made a big impact: 64 yds, 51 yds, 36 yds TD, 87 yds TD, 109 yds 2 TDs in a 5-game stretch
    • Other options:
      • Chris Godwin (29yo, projected at 3yrs, $60m ($40m guaranteed), played 397 snaps in 2024 before suffering season-ending ankle dislocation
      • Stefon Diggs (31yo, projected at 1yr, $16m), played 430 snaps before suffering an ACL tear
      • Keenan Allen (32.8yo)
      • Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (27.9yo)
    • Bad options:
      • Amari Cooper
      • DeAndre Hopkins
      • Marquise Brown
      • Diontae Johnson

RBs

  • Good options:
    • Nick Chubb (29.1yo, coming off ugly 2023 knee injury, wasn’t himself in 2024 playing only 252 snaps, projected at 1yr, $3m)
    • High risk, high reward. Between him and JK Dobbins I understand taking Dobbins but would be happy to take a calculated swing on Chubb plus draft a back early on Day 3
  • Other options:
    • Najee Harris (26.9yo, projected at 3yrs, $34.5m ($22.5m guaranteed), 2nd most rushing attempts since entering the league in 2021 (behind Derrick Henry), 4,316 yds (rank 5th int hat period, yards after contact places fourth. He’s available and versatile, but not explosive.
    • Aaron Jones (30.2yp, projected at 2yrs, $14m ($8 guaranteed) coming off 1 yr in Minnesota where he had a 75.4 grade, 1,186 yds from 268 carries (4.4 ypc), 5 TDs, 5 Fumbles, 54 catches, 420 yds
  • Bad options:
    • Javonte Williams

 

WRs

  • Good options:
    • Darius Slayton (28yo, projected at 3yr, $37.5m ($25m guaranteed)).
      • Explosive player with good YAC skills coming off a poor season (573 yds)
      • In 6 seasons with the Giants had 3,989 receiving ds and 21 TDs (4x seasons > 700 yards)
    • Mike Williams (30yo, projected at 1yr, $6m)
    • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (30yo, projected at 1yr, $6m)
      • Traded from Buffalo to New Orleans mid-season and made a bit impact: 64 yds, 51 yds, 36 yds TD, 87 yds TD, 109 yds 2 TDs in a 5-game stretch
    • Other options:
      • Chris Godwin (29yo, projected at 3yrs, $60m ($40m guaranteed), played 397 snaps in 2024 before suffering season-ending ankle dislocation
      • Stefon Diggs (31yo, projected at 1yr, $16m), played 430 snaps before suffering an ACL tear
      • Keenan Allen (32.8yo)
      • Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (27.9yo)
    • Bad options:
      • Amari Cooper
      • DeAndre Hopkins
      • Marquise Brown
      • Diontae Johnson

TEs

  • Good options:
    • Evan Engram (30.5yo, former 1st round pick (23 overall) to the Giants in 2017). 6’3”, 240 pounds, 4.42s forty. 8 seasons in the NFL (5 with Giants, 3 with Jaguars). 140 targets in 2023 (114 catches, 963 yds, 4 TDs). Never eclipsed 1,000 yds in a season but often 700-900. 2024 had 62 targets, 47 receptions, 365 yds, TD (72.5 Grade). Played 9 games. Suffered a hamstring in Wk 1 and didn’t play Wks 2-5. Ruled out for the season after tearing his labrum in Wk 14 v the Titans. His cap hit in 2025 would’ve ben $19.49m (final year of backloaded deal, AAV $13.75m 6th highest paid TE).
  • Other options:
    • Mike Gesicki (29.4yo, 71.5 Grade in 2023 with Bengals, projected at 2yrs, $12m ($6.25m guaranteed). Big catch radius. Can’t run block. 65 catches, 665yds, 2 TDs in 2024. Has eclipsed 700 receiving yards in two previous seasons (7 year career). 23 career TDs. Big slot and RZ weapon.
    • Juwan Johnson (28.4yo, projected at 3yrs, $29.5m ($17m guaranteed). Herbert’s teammate at Oregon. Run blocking grades below 55.0 past 3 seasons. Healthy player. 548 yards receiving last season, 3 TDs. Would be reasonably productive but keep us in realm of Jared Cook, Gerald Everett, Will Dissly calibre TEs.
  • Bad options:
    • Tyler Conklin
    • Zach Ertz
    • Austin Hooper

Center

  • Good options:
    • None. Prefer to enter the Draft with the plan being Zion/Bozeman unless something better materialises in the draft or post-draft via trade.
  • Other options:
    • Drew Dalman (26.3yo, 78.8 Grade in 2024 with Falcons, projected at 4yrs, $56m ($30m guaranteed). Great run blocker but different scheme and he’s 6’3”, 300 pounds. Former Stanford Cardinal. Football family (Dad Chris was a Center for the 49ers).
    • Ryan Kelly (31.7yo, 67.0 Grade in 2024 with Colts. Underwent surgery on his knee hallway through 2024 and was mulling retirement. Projected a 2yrs, $19m ($8m guaranteed)
  • Bad options:
    • Coleman Shelton (Chicago)

Guard

  • Good options:
    • Kevin Zeitler (34.9yo, 1yr, $6.25m). 86.8 Grade for the Lions last season 1,047 snaps. 87.2 Run Blocking Grade. Plays exclusively at RG (13,494 career snaps cf 2 snaps at left guard). Spent 2021-2023 with the Ravens. Former First Round pick from Wisconsin drafted by the Bengals. Very balanced player. He’s basically never missed a game in 13 seasons. Lowest ever single season grade is 65.9. Always grades 75.0 or above. 6’4”, 340 pounds.
  • Other options:
    • James Daniels (27.4yo), projected at 1yr, $5.5m. 92.0 Grade for the Steelers last season from 209 snaps. Tore his achilles. Gap scheme fit. 6’4”, 327 pounds. Former Iowa Hawkeye taken by the Bears in Round 2 (Pick 39 overall) in 2018. Previous highest graded was 71.8 in 2021. He’s been a steady player who’s a better run blocker.
    • Will Fries (26.9yo), projected at 4yrs, $57.25m ($30m). Way too high a price. 86.9 Grade from 268 snaps in 2024 for the Colts. Fractured his tibia in Wk 5 and missed the rest of the season. 6’6”, 305 pounds (thin for a tall guy). 84.9 Run Blocking Grade. 74.9 Pass Blocking Grade. Highest season grade before this year was 61.2 in 2024 where he played 1,125 snaps. Former Penn State Nittany Lion taken in the 7th
    • Brandon Scherff (33.1yo, 1yr, $6m) 64.7 Grade for the Jaguars last year. Very sound gap scheme fit. 6’5”, 315 pounds. Run Blocking grade used to be a strength but has dropped off. Still steady in pass pro. 9,133 career snaps at Right Guard (never played anywhere else). 11 seasons in the NFL (8 with the Redskins as the 5th overall pick in 2015 Draft from Wisconsin). Last 3 seasons with Jacksonville.
    • Patrick Mekari (27.5yo, 3yrs, $20.63m, $11m guaranteed). 6 seasons with the Ravens playing all over (but recently Left Guard). Has literally played more than 250 snaps at every spot on the line. Steady player but not a world beater. UDFA from California. 59.0 Grade last season, usually hovers between 62.0 and 70.0.
  • Bad options:
    • Mekhi Becton
    • Aaron Banks (49ers)
    • Will Hernandez (Cardinals)
    • Dalton Risner (Vikings)
    • Matt Pryor (Bears)
    • Laken Tomlinson (Seahawks)
    • Evan Brown (Cardinals)
    • Trystan Colon (Cardinals)

CB

  • Good options:
    • J. Reed (28.2yo, Jets, projected at 3yrs, $42m ($27.5m guaranteed). 70.7 Grade last season. Perfect scheme fit. Zone corner who tackles well. 5’9”, 188 pounds. 4.51s forty. Former 5th round pick from Kansas State. 7 seasons. Always grade 75.0-80.0. Only 6 career INTs. But lockdown in coverage with only 59.6% of target being caught across his career. 2 TDs allowed on the season.
    • Darius Slay (34.1yo, Eagles, due $24.92m in 2025 but cut, played for $13.76m in 2024). 71.9 Grade last season, 4 TDs allowed, 1x INT. Played every game and won the Super Bowl. 6’0”. 190 pounds, 4.36s forty, Former 2nd round pick from Mississippi State (Pick 36 to Lions), 12 seasons. Zone coverage specialist. 1x first-team All-Pro, 29 career INTs.
  • Other options (good players questionable fit):
    • Charvarius Ward (28.7yo, 49ers, projected at 3yrs, $43.5m ($25m guaranteed). 56.2 Grade last season but suffer a personal tragedy with baby daughter dying. Zone scheme probably not the right fit either, excelled with the Chiefs in a man heavy system (84.7 Grade in 2024, 5 INTs). 6’1”, 196 pounds. career INTs (2 last season). Reclamation project?
    • Jaire Alexander (not cut yet) (28.1yo, Packers, due $24.96m in 2025 and $27.38m in 2026 – 3rd highest paid corner in the NFL). 75.2 Grade last season from 7 games (missed 2 games with a quad injury, and then struggled with a PCL). 5’10”, 196 pounds, 4.38s forty, Former 1st round pick from Louiseville (Pick 18 with the Packers), 7 seasons. Zone coverage specialist who’s a 2x second-team All-Pro and has 15 career INTs. Can still play but he’s missed at least 10 games in three of his last four seasons. Interesting character off the field too.
    • Paulson Adebo (25.6yo, Saints, projected at 3yrs, $40m ($25m guaranteed). Broken femur ended season in Wk 7. Had 3 INTs to that point and a 63.3 Grade. Ball hawk with 10 INTs from 4 seasons. 6’1”, 192 pounds. Run Defense Grade is poor but doesn’t miss tackles. Former 3rd round pick from Stanford. A bit hit or miss in coverage because he’s susceptible to double moves. Gave up 100+ yards in 3 games this season
    • Carlton Davis (28.1yo, Lions, projected at 3yrs, $42m ($25m guaranteed). 74.5 Grade last season before fracturing jaw in Wk 15. Steady man coverage corner who won a Super Bowl with Tampa. 6’1”, 206 pounds, 4.53s forty, Former 2nd round pick from Auburn. 7 seasons in the NFL, usually grades between 65.0 and 75.0. Solid in both phases. 11 career INTs (2 last season). Picked on in games v the Rams, Seahawks and Packers. 3 TDs allowed on the season.
  • Bad options:
    • Rasul Douglas (Bills)
    • Byron Murphy Jnr (Vikings)
    • Mike Hilton (Bengals)
    • Stephon Gilmore (Vikings)
    • Jonathan Jones (Patriots)
    • Nate Hobbs (Raiders)

Safeties

  • Safeties:
  • Good options:
    • None. Don't need one with three good Safeties under contract.
  • Other options:
    • Jevon Holland (Dolphins)
    • Camryn Bynum (Vikings)
    • Justin Reid (Chiefs)
    • Justin Simmons (Falcons)
  • Bad options:
    • Talanoa Hufanga (49ers)
    • Harrison Smith (Vikings)
    • Tre’von Moehrig (Raiders)
    • Jeremy Chinn (Commanders)
    • Andre Cisco (Jaguars)
    • Julian Blackmon (Colts)

LBs

  • Good options (all upgrades on Perryman and will come down to comparative price point):
    • Dre Greenlaw (49ers) (27.7yo, 49ers, projected at 1 yr, $6m). Missed all but 34 snaps in 2024 after suffering an Achilles tear in the previous year’s Super Bowl. Very good all-around LB. 6’0”, 230 pounds. Run Defence Grades of 78.0 in 2021-2022. Coverage grades of 79.5 and 82.6 from 2022-2023. 6 seasons of experience.
    • Elandon Roberts (Steelers) (30.8yo, Steelers, projected at 1yr, $3.25m). 6’1:, 238 pounds. 525 snaps last year, 79.7 Overr Grade, 91.0 Run Defense Grade, 31 Run Stops (14.1% Missed Tackle Rate). 49.6 Coverage Grade. 9 Seasons in the NFL (Patriots/Dolphins/Steelers)
    • Jamien Sherwood (Jets) (4 seasons for the Jets, projected at 2yrs, $15.5m ($8m guaranteed). 6’2”, 216 pounds. 73.8 Grade last season from 1,063 snaps (first seasons as starter). 77.1 Run Defense Grade. 2 sacks. 109 tackles, 59 Run Stops (10.7% Missed Tackle Rate)
  • Other options:
    • Lavonte David (Bucs)
    • Robert Spillane (Raiders)
    • Nick Bolton (Chiefs)
    • Tyrel Dodson (Dolphins)
  • Bad options:
    • Bobby Wagner (Commanders)
    • Ernest Jones (Seahawks)
    • Eric Kendricks (Cowboys)
    • Devin Bush (Browns)

DT

  • Good options:
    • Calais Campbell (Dolphins) (38.5yo, Dolphins, projected at 1yr, $3m). 6’8”, 282 pounds, 82.3 Grade last season from 616 snaps, 39 pressures, 5 sacks. 85.9 Run Defense Grade. 17 seasons in the NFL (3 in Baltimore from 2020-2022). 110.5 sacks. 3x All Pro, 6x Pro Bowl, Walter Payton Man of the Year in 2019. Still very good, versatile and fit makes too much sense.
  • Other options:
    • Milton Williams (Eagles) (26.0, Eagles, projected at 3yrs, $63m ($40m guaranteed). 6 sacks this season during regular season. Never eclipsed 50% of defensive snaps. 2 sacks in the Super Bowl. 76.5 overall grade. 6’3”, 290 pounds. Former 3rd round pick from Louisiana Tech (Pick 73 overall, 2021). This one looks to me like a massive overpay and potential bust signing even if he flashes brilliance. We can draft someone with similar upside in this elite DT class. Find our own Milton Williams.
    • Tershawn Wharton (Chiefs)
  • Bad options:
    • J. Hill (Bengals)
    • J. Jones (Broncos)
    • Levi Onwuzurike (Lions)
    • Jarran Reed (Seahawks)
    • Sebastian Joseph-Day (Titans)
    • Ta’Quon Graham (Falcons)

Edge

  • Good options:
    • Josh Sweat (Eagles) (27.9yo, projected at 3yrs, $54m ($32.5m guaranteed). 70.0 Grade last season. 8 regular season sacks. 2.5 sacks in the Super Bowl. 6’5”, 265 pounds, 4.53s forty. Former 4th round pick (Florida State, 2018). 54 career sacks (had 15 in 2022). 7 seasons. Cap hit was $8.02m this season). 1x Pro Bowl. There is risk with this pick but he brings much needed juice and as long as the price doesn't get crazy, I'm interested. I would also be interested if the team decided to pull a trade for a superstar like Hendrickson, Parsons, Garrett as an alternative.
    • Derek Barnett (Texans) (28.6yo, projected at 1yr, $4.25m). 74.2 Grade last season. 19 pressures, 5 sacks from 413 snaps. 73.9 Run Defense Grade. 6’3”, 259 pounds, 4.88s forty. Former 1st round pick (Pick 4 overall Eagles in 2017). 35 career sacks (8 seasons). Strong run defender but has never quite developed as a rusher.
  • Other options:
    • Hasson Reddick (Jets)
    • Malcolm Koone (Raiders)
    • Baron Browning (Cardinals)
    • Chase Young (Saints)
    • Dante Fowler Jr (Comannders)
    • Josh Uche (Chiefs)
  • Bad options:
    • Dayo Odeyingbo (Colts)
    • Azeez Ojulari (Giants)
    • DeMarcus Lawrence (Cowboys)
    • Chauncey Golston (Cowboys)
    • Matthew Judon Falcons)
    • Dennis Gardeck (Cardinals)
    • Charles Omenihu (Cheifs)
    • Darrel Taylor (Bears)
    • Brandon Graham (Eagles)
    • Carl Lawson (Cowboys)

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5 Replies
Tau837
(@tau837)
Joined: 2 years ago

Honorable Member
Posts: 559

@alisterlloyd Great post. Outstanding post. Thanks for putting so much depth into it.

I'm going to focus on where I disagree, since I agree with a lot:

  • Out of the players you said you would not re-sign, my one disagreement is with Scott.
    • Re-signing him keeps a familiar player and avoids the need to find an alternative.
    • Importantly, based on reporting I have seen, Scott punts in accordance with what Fickens wants, focusing on hang time. If true, I assume Fickens wants him back.
  • Out of the internal free agent players you said you would re-sign, I disagree with these:
    • Perryman - I have posted my reasons previously.
    • Mustipher - He was awful. If you want to re-sign him to fill out the 90 man roster, with the idea that he will be waived at final roster cuts, fine. But nothing more than that for me.
    • Palmer - He is the epitome of "just a guy," a replacement level player. If the Chargers sign Adams, as I think they should, and have him and McConkey as 1a/1b, with Johnston as #3, at least for 2025, I think they can find a better WR4 than Palmer, relative to pricetag.
  • As for Fulton - He is a maybe for me. I wouldn't mind if he is re-signed, but I think there is an argument that, given the available cap space, it might make sense to pay more for a better player. I definitely agree with signing a veteran free agent outside CB to start.
  • For external free agents:
    • At WR, IMO Adams followed by Godwin are the good options, so I disagree somewhat with how you characterized some of these players.
    • At RB, IMO all of the RBs you named are bad options. Prefer to re-sign Dobbins and pair with a rookie in a 1a/1b combo.
    • At TE, IMO Johnson is the only good option, with Gesicki next but not good. No interest in Engram.
    • At G, I'm fine with Zeitler for 1 year, but prefer Fries and Mekari. I would sign two of these players, release Pipkins, and let Zion and the other two battle it out for the two starting G spots.
    • At CB:
      • Ward has said he will not play for a California team again. His daughter died last season, and the associated pain is apparently the root of that. So he may not be a candidate.
      • Alexander would probably be too expensive.
      • I would be happy with signing either Davis or Reed.
      • Don't agree Slay is a good option. Too old. Don't want to take the risk.
      • Don't agree Douglas should be viewed as a "bad option". I would be fine with signing him.
    • Don't agree with the need to sign any external LBs. IMO Henley is LB1, Colson should step into LB2 role, I would re-sign Dye as LB3, and I would re-sign Niemann and draft 1-2 LBs to compete for the LB4/5 roles (if 5 LBs make final roster).
    • At IDL:
      • Don't agree with signing Campbell. He is a great story, but don't want to sign a 38.5 year old at the position. Unnecessary risk vs. resources choice. No.
      • Would absolutely sign Williams. IMO he could be a difference maker if paired with Ford, Tart, and Mack. He is worth a top of market deal IMO.
    • Agree with signing Sweat, particularly if they cannot re-sign Mack. If they do re-sign Mack, I would still consider signing Sweat, but that would alse enable the team to pivot to the draft for a Bosa replacement.

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(@alisterlloyd)
Joined: 2 years ago

Prominent Member
Posts: 582

@tau837 Thanks Tau! 

Guys who I listed as "other options" were players I could stomach (and some of them happily stomach) being signed as alternatives to my 'good options' so if moves like Fries>Zeitler happen so won't really hear a complaint from me.

JK Scott started in my re-sign bucket and moved right at the end. I don't feel strongly about it and what you've said makes sense. I think we could potentially upgade but he's fine.

No issues with what you've said about Perryman (who ideally we'd upgrade with one of the options I mentioned), Mustipher (yes, that was my thinking) and Palmer (who I would offer something very low because of his chemistry with Herbert but apparently there are interested teams, so I fully expect to upgrade there in the Draft or FA - his price will get too high).

Fulton is a maybe guy for me too. I tried to make the point that I'm on the fence about Perryman/Dobbins/Palmer/Fulton. These are all guys who, for the right price, I would consider. But think we can upgrade.

WR: Mike Williams addresses contested catch, MVS addresses speed. Slayton explosive YAC. If our plan was Davante and then one of those three guys to bring their respective skill in addition, I would be happy. Godwin is a good player. Just a little concerned how much is left in the tank and I think he plays his best in the slot (less of a need with Ladd).

RB/TE: No strong disagreement. I think a 3yr deal on Johnson leaves us a little in No Man's Land at the position but wouldn't hate. He is a good athlete and Herbert might help him take that step (college teammates, accurate ball placement, etc)

C: The Raiders are apparently going to release Andre James. I think that is now my preferred move. I actually quite like Zion's chances of moving to Center (I don't view it the same as Pipkins trying to be a Guard) but this move would help plug a hole before the Draft.

CB: Pretty close to the same page here. Rasul Douglas probably should be in "Other" you're right. He's a good scheme fit. Slay's age is why I have DJ Reed ahead of him, but for 1 season I'd be ok.

LB: I don't want to hope that Colson does what Henley did last season. I'd rather one more cheap veteran in the room and some of the guys are great value propositions IMO (Elandon Roberts is exceptional against the run).

DT: We probably disagree most here. I'm a little worried about Howie becoming the next Belichick where teams sign his off-cuts at a high price and they don't produce at the same level not surround by 3-4 talented other DLs. What makes you bullish about Milton in particular? The way he's been used in a limited role to date in his career makes the price point pretty steep for me. Might well become a stud starter, just think handing him $18-$20m per year is a generous reward for 4 seasons of non-elite play.

Edge: I think my favourite outcome is trading a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Trey Hendrickson tbh. Adding Davante, Hendrickson and then making more calculated savvy signings (like Andre James et al) is probably how I'd attack this offseason.

Thanks for the positive feedback Smile


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Tau837
(@tau837)
Joined: 2 years ago

Honorable Member
Posts: 559

@alisterlloyd On Milton, he is a very strong pass rusher (top PFF grade pass rushing grade among all IDL). You characterize him as having a limited role, but he played 653 defensive snaps in 2024. Ford led the Chargers' IDL with 652. Is that really limited?

His run defense in 2024 was not good, at least per PFF grade, but it was very good in 2022-2023. So it seems he isn't necessarily a problem there.

My main objective is for the Chargers to sign a near top of market players in some position group where they have need. They may never again be in a position with $90M+ in cap space plus 10 draft picks. They have an amazing amount of choice in how to build the roster around the nucleus... they may never have this level of flexibility again. Need to take advantage of it.


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(@alisterlloyd)
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@tau837 Fair point re Milton v Poona. We acquired Poona for $1.79m in 2024 and even knowing what he brings the max I'd go with him on an extension is $13m. Ideally he's retained for somewhere closer to the $8-$10m range. And we've seen him play well in our scheme. Bringing in Milton Williams for whatever he'll cost (let's say it's at least $15m) strikes me as the type of deal that doesn't end up looking shrewd in a few years' time.

Don't get me wrong, I understand your reasoning. It's just too rich for me when I like some of the 3T disruptors in this draft class. I'd rather we find our own rookie version of Milton Williams to develop than pay top dollar for the version that hasn't played in our system before.


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Tau837
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@alisterlloyd Part of my reasoning is the cap space they have available. Let's go position by position, looking for where it could be resonable to make a significant investment:

  • QB - Unnecessary
  • RB - No reason to sign anyone more expensive than Dobbins; they should re-sign him, but price should be modest
  • WR - Adams
  • TE - If Andrews gets released, IMO the Chargers should sign him
  • OT - Unnecessary
  • OG - Some good players are available, and I think the Chargers should sign 1-2 of them... none should be top of market in terms of contract value
  • C - No great player available who is a good scheme fit, though I would be fine with signing Kelly
  • Edge - Sweat?
  • IDL - Williams, Odighizuwa
  • LB - Unnecessary IMO
  • CB - Should sign starting veteran outside corner and could spend here for Davis or maybe a couple others
  • S - Unnecessary

To me, it seems like it comes down to WR, Edge, IDL, and CB where they can leverage their tremendous cap space to sign one or more top performers. IMO they two high market players from those position groups.

I realize that the draft is strong at Edge and IDL, so maybe that implies they should sign Adams and a corner like Davis, then take those positions out of play early in the draft in order to focus on others, like Edge and IDL. 


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(@alisterlloyd)
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The other big topic right now is DK Metcalf v Davante Adams

I fall in the Davante camp. Some relevant stats below but, in a nutshell, I view Metcalf as a 'feast or famine' quite inefficient WR who's produced in Seattle because he gets a high volume share. He will likely see a significantly reduced volume in our Offense and when you factor in his salary demands plus what it would cost to acquire him, the risks start stacking up too high (for me). If he becomes a Charger though, I will try to see the upside and there is some.

Davante has become slightly less efficient with age, and some are concerned about his "Diva behaviour". But I think he'll be cheaper than Metcalf, won't cost draft capital to acquire, and nobody viewed this guy as a Diva when he was happy and dominating in Green Bay. I would expect his inner competitive beast to bring his best to bear playing for Jim Harbaugh in LA. He wins in ways we're sorely lacking (outside of McConkey) and his hands are reliable.

  • DK Metcalf?
    • Trading for DK Metcalf. He would be under contract only for 2025 at a cap hit of $10.875m. He would want an extension as part of the deal.
    • 27yo, 6’3”, 229pounds, 74.3 Grade last season, 106 targets, 66 catches, 992 yds, 5 TDs (15.0ypc).
    • 6 seasons, 464 catches, 6,775 yds, 53 TDs.
    • 6 Drops in 2023, 5 Drops in 2022.
    • CTC%: 36.6% in 2024 and 29.0% in 2023:
    • REC%: 61.1% (2024 – 82nd of 112), 58.9% (2023 – 73rd of 96), 65.8% in 2022, 62.5% career.
    • Incredible straight-line athlete.
    • 152 targets (2022), 112 targets (2023), 108 targets (2024). McConkey had 124 targets last season (110 in regular season).
    • #38 in YAC in 2024, #43 in Yards Per Route Run, #91 True Catch Rate (85.7%), #87 in Target Separation (PlayerProfiler).
    • Win Rate v Man (#5 – 42.5%)
  • Davante Adams?
    • $38.25m cap hit in 2025 but Jets will cut him to save close to $30m in cap space. More likely a guy to be signed following release.
    • yo, 6’1”, 215 pounds, 11 seasons in the NFL, 85 catches, 1,062 yds, 8 TDs last season for Raiders/Jets.
    • He’s become less efficient over time. Rec% used to be 70% +, now 59-63%. True Catch Rate #53. #31 Yards Per Route Run.
    • ADOT is 8.3yds (#84). Win Rate v Man (#26). Target Separation is #50.

See more analytics here.

Metcalf: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/dk-metcalf/

Adams: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/davante-adams/


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Tau837
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(@tau837)
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Agree, Adams > Metcalf, all things considered. I do not view Adams as a diva. He definitely wants the ball and can get frustrated when he doesn't get it, but that is often when he doesn't get it because the QB can't get it to him. I don't think that latter aspect will be a problem with Herbert.


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(@burningbolt)
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I prefer Metcalf to Adams as the much better fit for the Chargers.  In 2020, the deep passing attack was a thing of beauty.  Herbert's elite ability in that aspect of the game was on full display.  It was the best part of our offense.  

Unfortunately, for reasons escaping all understanding Telesco/Staley/Lombardi completely abandoned that approach in not valuing the retention of deep speed at WR.

We have a chance to fix that in part by securing the services of a strong and very fast X receiver in his prime in Metcalf in a year in which useful options at WR are limited in both the draft and free agency.

Our current offense focuses more on the intermediate and longer passing game than Lombardi's offense did because that kind of passing game is a superior complement to Roman's ground attack than the short passing game which takes place in the same vertical range as the ground game does.

Adams, by contrast, is 32 and will be in decline soon.  Also, Adams has feasted on anticipatory back shoulder passes, which is not Herbert's strength because it never has had to be in light of his natural arm talent.  I do not see a great fit with Adams either with Herbert or with what our offense could be.

I believe that a better idea would be to not only to acquire Metcalf, but also to draft Golden or Egbuka at 1-22 (assuming Egbuka runs in the 4.3s) and to follow that up by selecting one trick pony Deont'e Thornton late in the draft (possibly even round 7).

I would sign Evan Engram.

Not only will speed everywhere force defenses to remain honest, which should help both the running game and McConkey, but it should also help create mismatches that can be exploited with slower defenders being forced to keep pace with faster receivers, something very different than has been the case with Allen, Williams, Palmer, et cetera, who are typically not going to beat defenders downfield with any regularity.

In my world, Palmer would be gone.  Johnston would get to develop as one heck of a WR4.  Thornton would be the do not break glass except in case of emeregency WR5 or even WR6 with Davis getting some occasional run.  I do not have much faith in Rice or any other WRs.

I do realize that even if we re-sign our own, we have or could potentially have needs at C, RG, TE, EDGE, DT, RB and CB that require attention.  I would re-sign Dobbins, Ford and Tart.  I would not pursue/release Samuel, Palmer, Pipkins.  I would consider re-signing Bozeman and Perryman as depth on team friendly deals.  I would pursue a good EDGE (Young, Sweat) in free agency.  I like the previously discussed notion of signing Kelly and Fries.

As for the draft, I like the scarce good WR at 1-22 as noted above.  I really like Tyler Warren and like Jeanty, but they will not be there at 1-22.  Honestly, I think skillsets similar to Loveland's can be acquired later in the draft, so I do not think we need to go there at 1-22 despite the "bazillion" mock drafts that have us going that way.  I think there are good EDGE players in the round 2-3 range.  I would love for us to be able to get both Bhayshul Tuten (like the idea of having a second homerun hitter at RB if we re-sign Dobbins) and a good C on day 3, but I have reservations about that as a possibility.

Anyway, that is my $.02.


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(@alisterlloyd)
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@burningbolt This is why I love this time of year Burning Bolt. There are many different ways to approach the decision-making and I appreciate your various insights and suggestions. Nothing to say that your way wouldn't work as well (or better) than my way.

Can free agency arrive please already so we can see what Hortiz chooses to do and analyse it!


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(@66_jimbo)
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Cancel the debate. Both are gone.


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(@alisterlloyd)
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@66_jimbo Good thing we got that episode out before it became entirely obsolete. Things move quickly around this time of year!


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(@kathmandusteve)
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On to Darius Slayton discussions, it seems.


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KevDiego
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Only have a brief moment, but wanted to do a quick post:

Great job on the podcast. I am continually impressed (and a little embarrassed) that three dudes from Australia know more about football than I do.

I agree with the assessment of Metcalf. No way he was worth 5/$150. That's crazy. Its also crazy that the Bills paid Palmer 3/$36. Good time to be a WR. I guess the focus for the Chargers now is draft & develop.

Good deal retaining Mack. Makes sense for both sides.

Ford going to the Rams for 3/$30 is a bit frustrating. I would rather have kept him for that price, but the plan now has to be drafting 2 or more interior DL in a very deep draft. That and resigning Tart.

WTF are the Chargers going to spend their cap on? Has to be interior OL.


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(@alisterlloyd)
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@kevdiego You sell yourself short, Kev! 

Poona not being retained at that price was my most frustrating non-move of the day. If you'd told me yday that we'd exit Day 1 of free agency with Donte Jackson & Najee Harris as the two main moves, I'd have looked like a stunned mullet.

I'm trying to keep perspective because we know the team we have in August will look completely different, and we may well form the view (by then) that Horitz had a great offseason and spent wisely. But after Day 1 I understand why most are very disappointed... 


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KevDiego
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My expectations for today were very low. This is not a front office that is going to pay splashy external FAs. That's just not what they do (and I think I agree with the approach). The things that sort-of surprised me that I do not like:

  • Signing Harris. "Not a lot of tread left on those very slow-moving tires." as they say. I guess they view him as the Gus replacement. We will see. The interior of the OL needs to be fixed or Harris will look like 2024 Gus
  • Retaining Pipkins. At best, he's your swing tackle. His contract is not aligned with his role on the team (or what his role should be).

What I want the team to do:

  • The Chargers need to figure out center and Bozeman is not the answer. I think Josh Meyers is the best FA remaining, which means the Chargers are likely going to fill the need in the draft? Not a lot of centers there, so you're going to draft a guard with traits and teach them center, which sounds like a project, which sounds like Bozeman starting the year at center, which sounds like early season pain for Herbert....
  • If they're going to sign a flashy FA, I like Mekhi Becton. The dude is 6'7", 363 lbs. That and a competent center could really change the attitude of the OL.
  • Just an aside, the Chargers had an UDFA on IR all year: Tyler McLellan. He's listed as a 6'8", 355 Tackle. I thought he looked great in the pre-season, then blew out his knee. An OL of Slater-Johnson-Rookie-Becton-Alt with McLellan coming at TE could really move defenses off the LOS
  • It's pretty clear that the Chargers are going to draft:
  • IDL (1-2)
  • Edge (day 2)
  • RB
  • TE (Loveland if he's there in the 1st)
  • C/G (likely day 2)
  • LB (day 3)

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Erick V
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@kevdiego Kev, it's obvious they don't prioritize offensive playmakers outside of RB, so Loveland is probably not even a consideration honestly. With that being the case Rd1 needs to be an Edge. Mack is 34 and on a 1 year deal and Dupree is on his last legs also. This is a deep Edge class as far as the top talent, but waiting until day 2 at #55 probably leaves the 15th best Edge player available at best, like a Jared Ivey or Jordan Burch who are not the players this team needs as a starter post Mack. This team needs more of speed element off the Edge like a Pearce or Ezeiruaku which will only be available day one. At this point, just add to the defense as much as possible and try to be the 2000 Ravens. Winning with defense and by turning an elite QB into a game manager that hands it off 30 times a game.

I would say IOL could be an option in Rd1, but the talent pool just isn't there IMO outside of Zabel who still might be a reach at #22. Taking playmakers out of the equation in Rd1 leaves us with Edge, DT or CB. Kenneth Grant might be an option also, but the way this free agency is going, we will need just about everything but QB in the draft.


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KevDiego
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@evolz3737 I don't think Dupree was ever very good.  What I saw in 2024 was a dude with some athletic talent, but not a very smart player (similar to Bozeman).  So, I agree that edge is a need.

For the draft, I think they're going to have a plan going in, but will react to the way the board falls, which I agree with.  They can then backfill with tier 2 FAs after the draft (similar to last year).

Not flashy, but this is the way quality rosters are built.


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Erick V
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@kevdiego I'm starting to think more and more that this FO doesn't feel they are close enough with the roster to be a little more aggressive in FA, but honestly if they are planning on getting the roster there with late round comp picks, it might never get there. A revolving door of 1 year deals just keeps the cycle of holes going. There's a real possibility they misjudged the FA market this year and had some sticker shock, otherwise why be so diligent to clear 90M if they had no intention of using it? If comp picks are the main goal, they could have kept Bosa and not created another roster hole which probably would have netted them a 4th Rd comp pick. With this approach to FA there was really no reason to clear as much space as they did. And in reality, how are they improved? If anything, the roster is worse. We have no choice but to see how it plays out, but I'm not impressed with this off seasons process so far.

Look, I believe in Hortiz and he is who I wanted to run the ship because I thought he was seasoned under one of the best FO in the league for 20 years. But I question two things.

1. Is this another Belechick type situation where coaches who were hired from his staff (Mangini, McDaniels, Patricia, Judge) tried to emulate him to a fault instead of being their own person? I get that he came from a successful Ravens organization, but that culture has been built for decades. They didn't start out that way. We don't have to be a carbon copy of their process immediately. We might need to take a different route to eventually get to where they are now.

2. Could Harbaugh be the problem with the roster building? He had his issues with the GM in SF, which led him to be cast off. Was it that he wanted to much control of how the roster was built or had a stale vision for team construction from his playing days? After all he had no such constraints in college. You can't pick the players, the players pick you. If this is the case, maybe Hortiz is acquiescing to him now in roster build?

Of course, this is just speculation and maybe completely off base, but I am having a hard time seeing the plan for this roster build/free agency cycle.


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(@kylededi)
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@evolz3737 This is definitely a great conversation to have - it's worth trying to explore the potential weaknesses of the staff, and help us understand how rosters will be constructed in future years.

However, it's still super early. When they DO start spending (hopefully not if Smile ) that money can go surprisingly fast. 


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Tau837
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(@tau837)
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Feeling fairly frustrated and impatient right now.


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KevDiego
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This is not a leadership team that is going to make splashy FA signings.

I think I would have paid Ford, but my guess is that the team's plan is to build through the draft.

Adams went for about the top of what I thought would have been reasonable. No way I would have paid the $ and draft capitol for Metcalf. Surprised by how much Palmer signed for.

The worst thing I've seen today is re-signing Bozeman. I do not want to watch another season of Herbert getting crushed while Brad is standing around blocking air.


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(@unclejammsarmy)
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@kevdiego as it stands now, we’re running back the same shitty IOL from last year. Bozeman re-signed, Pipkins still on the roster, so is Zion. I know it’s early, but how did we not get Mekari among others. Who is left? Fries and Kelly?


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KevDiego
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Fries, Mekhi Becton (a 6'7", 363lbs dude should make the OL more physical)


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Tau837
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@unclejammsarmy I believe Kelly signed somewhere. Fries and Zeitler are still possible as far as I know. Maybe Juwan Johnson, or, even better, Mark Andrews if he is cut. WR choices are slim pickings.

But, hey, we signed Najee!!! Ugh.


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(@alisterlloyd)
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Tau837
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@kevdiego I hate the phrase "splashy FA signings." It is a phrase used to imply that such signings are bad, and, thus, not having any equates to good process. I don't agree. Good process is good process. It can lead to good signings on day one of free agency just as easily as it can lead to bargain signings like what we saw last season.


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Buck Melanoma
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@tau837 splashy to me just means high visibility, probably high priced. I put no positive or negative spin on the terminology.

 

They told us they weren't going after players that would likely command big salaries. That's how they're proceeding.


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Tau837
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@buck-melanoma I'm not aware they told us that. Hortiz has repeatedly said it is important to be responsible about spending. Being responsible does not equate to not signing any high value contract players. Those things are not the same.

Results so far:

  • No WR upgrade
  • No G upgrade
  • No C upgrade
  • No TE upgrade
  • Edge downgrade
  • IDL downgrade
  • RB change, but upgrade/downgrade (Harris vs. Dobbins/Edwards) unclear at this point
  • CB change, but upgrade/downgrade (Jackson vs. Fulton) unclear at this point

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Buck Melanoma
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@tau837 I don't think paying big money for WR's that either have spotty production (Metcalf) or are well on the wrong side of 30 (Adams) falls into the responsible category.

 

I expect both IDL (deep DT class) and IOL to be addressed in the draft. And there are still FA guards available, just as there are still FA TE's available. 

 

I'm on record since last year with my concerns about center. Bozeman likely got his deal because he was available all year. I may have misspoke about just what Hortiz said but I know Harbaugh made the statement that availability is the best ability. Nearly certain it was said in the Pat McAfee interview at the Combine.

 

Edge....again, I expect a draft pick. Maybe 2. And with Bosa's injury history? I think there's room to get better in the draft.

 

You were on record, IIRC, saying you had no interest in Harris. Like it or not, I think he fits the mold of a Harbaugh guy....tough and available. He's stayed healthy....Dobbins doesn't have that history.

 

CB I don't know. I do know Jackson is a fit for what Minter prefers to do which is mostly run zone. And he's a good run defender. I'm more than ok with not having another JC Jackson situation.

 

I want to see the team headed more in the draft and develop direction. This may be a turn toward that. We'll see. I think Hortiz stayed true to what he said, even though I did overstate it. He's making responsible moves. Maybe we fans just need to be a bit more patient.


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Buck Melanoma
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One more thing re: center.....I would have been fine with Kelly, especially at $9M/yr, but he could just as easily become a Linsley signing since he's 30+ and coming off of an injury, I believe?

 

You said repeatedly Dalman wasn't a fit so let's take the other quality FA center off the board.


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Tau837
(@tau837)
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@buck-melanoma 

Drafting and developing is fine. I'm all for it. But by my count, they ideally need at least 7 new starters:

  • RB 1a/b - to pair with Harris; not on roster
  • WR 2 - to upgrade Johnston and pair with McConkey; not on roster
  • TE 1a/b - to pair with Dissly; not on roster
  • RG - to replace Pipkins
  • IDL (NT) - to replace Ford
  • IDL (pass rusher) - to replace Fox
  • Edge 1a/b - to replace Joey and pair with Mack

Not to mention other key depth roles (WR, C, QB2, LB, CB, S). No way to adequately address all of that in one draft, hence the need to use the prodigious cap space to properly augment the draft and ideally do it to obtain multiple high quality starters.

It obviously makes sense to pay top of market value for players, as long as you identify the right players. The Chargers are doing that with Herbert and James now, and will soon likely sign Slater to a top of market extension this offseason.

Of course, we know they weren't willing to do it for Bosa, Allen, or Williams. Maybe the latter two because of their valuation of the WR position, hard to know for sure. Bosa presumably just wasn't a value at the price established by the previous front office.

But we know this front office and coaching staff values the trenches. The Chargers clearly need OL upgrades to as many as all 3 IOL positions, and they clearly need 2 starter caliber IDL. Even ignoring all of the other positions, those are 5 positions in the trenches. More than anything, I am surprised that have made zero moves to address those needs so far.

I can't figure out how they are going to spend their cap space. Barring injuries or unexpected events, I can identify 44 of the final 53 man roster spots:

  • 27 core players who entered offseason under contract for 2025
    • Justin Herbert
    • Derwin James
    • Rashawn Slater
    • Joe Alt
    • Alohi Gilman
    • Will Dissly
    • Zion Johnson
    • Quentin Johnston
    • Bud Dupree
    • Jamaree Salyer
    • Cameron Dicker
    • Ladd McConkey
    • Tuli Tuipulotu
    • Daiyan Henley
    • Josh Harris
    • Junior Colson
    • Derius Davis
    • Otito Ogbonnia
    • Justin Eboigbe
    • Ja'Sir Taylor
    • Deane Leonard
    • Hassan Haskins
    • Scott Matlock
    • Tarheeb Still
    • Cam Hart
    • Kimani Vidal
    • Brenden Rice
  • 7 players signed to new contracts for 2025 so far
    • Khalil Mack
    • Najee Harris
    • Donte Jackson
    • Elijah Molden
    • J.K. Scott
    • Bradley Bozeman
    • Tucker Fisk
  • 10 draft picks
    • I realize all 10 probably won't make the final roster, but most should, so this cost seems to be at least a reasonable proxy

So there are 9 more spots to fill, and my calculations show they have more than $54M in 2025 cap space available to do it, having already accounted for those 44 players and dead cap, and having reserved around $11.2M for in season expenses.

I expect most of those 9 positions to go to players like Smartt, Fehoko, Niemann, Dye, Heinicke or equivalent players, who will collectively account for $10M or less against the 2025 cap. So maybe $44M for 4-6 higher paid positions.

It seems possible that Slater's extension could raise his cap number a bit, even though that situation typically results in a cap hit reduction. But even if it goes up, it shouldn't be by much.

I would love to believe the Ravens could cut Mark Andrews before his roster bonus due Monday and the Chargers could sign him to a multi-year deal. But will they actually cut him?

Beyond that I'm kind of stumped for now.


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(@kathmandusteve)
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We can wait for the overpriced first coupla days to pass.  It isn't the end of times.  We got Mack back, and at a real bargain.  

Thanks, Khalil!


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