Introduction
When Demeco Ryans stepped in to take over the mess that Lovie Smith, or more accurately, Bill O’Brien left of the Houston Texans, I don’t think anyone expected the revival of their defense to be so quick. Under his leadership they have gone from the 3rd worst overall defense and the worst rushing defense to the 6th best overall defense with the 9th best ground game defense in two short years.
Ryans came through the 49ers’ coaching ranks under Robert Saleh then Steve Wilkes. Whilst Saleh had a fairly complex two high quarter scheme, both his mentors focused on coaching techniques and being player-orientated coaches who maxed out their rosters’ talents. After Saleh’s departure Demeco pushed for even more star players being the foundations that they built a defense around. His focus since then has therefore been on creating a structurally sound, if stubborn, system that allowed his players to play hard and fast without having to rely on complexity to win the day.
Early in the season their simplistic defense held up well against teams who want to be complex like the Lions, Packers and Bills. However further down the stretch, as teams got the keys to beating them and injuries started to take their toll, even the miserable Titans’ offense were able to put up 32 points on them and between the Ravens and Chiefs sent them for 58 points in back-to-back weeks without having to get into third gear.
Demeco has stuck true to his more simple system without their star players even if it has been to his detriment. The results have been plain to see as before, their elite defense was able to keep their offense in games until very late on but since then it’s been exposed earlier in the day leaving no path for Stroud to claw his way back. Their reliance on the Jimmies and Joes over the X’s and O’s has been a bit exposed by offenses who were willing to attack their weak links such as Pitre’s replacement, Myles Bryant, and Jimmie Ward’s replacement, Eric Murray.
Results
The Texans are a very successful defense who actually rank 1st outside of garbage time in EPA/play with a massive advantage in EPA/play against the pass where they own an outstanding -0.18 mark. Although this EPA mark is impressive on the face of it, they’ve given up the 3rd most passing touchdowns in the league with 30 and they could have been 1st had the Panthers and Falcons, the only two teams above them, not gotten into a Week 18 OT shootout.
They also allow the lowest completion rate of any team in the league with 58.7% however how much of this is because of the quarterbacks in their division. The quarterbacks they have played in their division rank as the 43rd (twice), 39th, 32nd (twice) and 23rd quarterbacks in terms of completion percentage. I think this goes a long way to explaining why they lead the league in this metric.
One explanation for this disparity between points allowed and EPA/play could be that the Texans rank 4th in the league with 29 takeaways including 19 interceptions (2nd). So this means that whilst they’ll let you score they’ll also get the ball off of you which, when your offense is failing to rise to the defenses’ levels, appears like Ryans trying to win the game on one side of the ball.
“The concern for me is we need to play complementary football, right? We play complementary football, we win games. We don’t, we’re not relying on one side to carry the entire time.”
Demeco Ryans after their Week 12 loss to the Tennesse Titans
This seems to play well into the Chargers’ hands as Herbert is a very risk averse quarterback who had a historically low interception rate of 0.59% despite having his highest yards per attempt of his career.
Scheme Summary
Demeco Ryans runs a 4-2-5 defense with his base nickel personnel being on the field 82.3% of the time which is the 2nd highest use of any single grouping in the league. From this the Texans’ want to do two things; play as an aggressive single high run stuffing unit on early downs to catch you behind the sticks. Then on later downs they play two high with either Quarters and Palms coverages and attack your pass protection rules with overload fronts.
The aggressive description refers to how Ryans likes to play his secondary on early downs where the corners are the strength so they play tight zone coverage from their outside alignments. This plays into their strengths as they have an incredibly talented, young secondary that have been able to keep passing offenses at bay.
What’s clear though is that structure of their defense is actually built to stop the run; it seems like Demeco believes in fortifying where your weaknesses are. They lean on middle field closed (MOFC) coverages for the most part, they use an aggressive set of Cover 3 principles with the Strong safety already rolled down to the apex and the corners playing at linebacker depth. They also use run stunts at the 7th highest rate in the league which, when you compare that to their low blitz and stunt rates, is an outlier that tells a story.
Run Fits
The Texans’ main weakness is up the spine of their defense and that is core reason for their preference for MOFC coverages. Between their interior defensive line and off-ball linebackers they lack the elite talent to align with their strengths on the flanks. From their nickel base their likely starters for the Wildcard game will be Tim Settle and Folorunso Fatukasi at Defensive Tackle with Christian Harris and the controversial Azeez Al-Shaair who is back after his suspension has been lifted. He will bring some much needed experience and physicality to their linebacker group but even then this leaves the middle of the field as a much easier area to attack.
Ryans really doesn’t like being moved off of his Nickel base perch so how they fir the run is by bringing down the strong safety and slot defender pre-snap and having them sat at linebacker depth. Demeco and his defensive staff don’t like to rotate mid-drive too often so he addresses heavier looks by being gap sound and bringing those extra secondary players into the box and gives them a gap assignment. This is an old school Cover 3 philosophy that has since been passed by in favor of schemes that allow for flexibility towards the pass.
This is where established running teams like the Ravens have caused them problems. They used heavy formations and just bullied them all up the middle of the field, the A gaps were wide open all day long especially on trap concepts. The Texans were caught in a bind as if they stayed in two high looks then their linebackers were asked two gap and this allowed offensive lineman to be free to clear to climb off the double team as the defensive tackles were too keen to get into the backfield.
It meant they had to go to single high look against Lamar Jackson which was a massive problem as it allowed Todd Monken to use motion to throw off their gap reads and then employ play action off the back of this to get draw all eight box defenders down towards the line of scrimmage. The game was over before it even begun and Greg Roman’s offense has the tools to follow their lead in this area of the game.
“On play-action snaps, the Texans have allowed an explosive play rate of 17.7 percent, which ranks 19th.”
Daniel popper from his wildcard preview
Coverage
Overall they run a pretty varied coverage system with only Cover 0 (23rd most) and Cover 2 (26th most) being discarded from the playbook. They rank no higher than 7th for any other single coverage usage so Ryans likes to keep game planners guessing but the tendencies are there to see once the game has begun. They use coverage disguise at 19.1% which is 29th in league so a cerebral quarterback like Justin Herbert may not know what the coverage is when taking the field, but he’ll have it figured out once he has looked up at their pre-snap alignments and used his motion keys.
On early downs they tend to show single high and play Cover 3 with their strong safety and corners staying down at linebacker depths to stay aggressive against the run. As a change up they play man from the same pre-snap look and they make this slightly harder on quarterbacks to read as their corners playing outside leverage against receivers who are anywhere close to the hash marks.
The Texans are not the only team the Chargers will have faced this season that will use MOFC in fact they saw it at the 8th highest rate in the league to combat their use of heavier personnel. One way Greg Roman has beaten it is to attack the seams from formations you wouldn’t normally expect to do that from. The play above was a 4-verts call from 13 personnel and I’d expect to see some lean into this with the emergence of Stone Smartt adding another dynamic to it.
For clear passing downs the Texans show a two high look and play Quarters or Palms from it however they are not scared of playing man coverage on third down at all, sometimes it is the focus of their game plan. This emphasizes that the strength areas of their team are their corners and pass rushers however by playing man coverage on passing downs you leave yourself exposed as all it takes to lose a close game is one mistake.
Talented Young Secondary
Houston is famous for being home to NASA’s flight control and that is exactly what Nick Caserio has tried to honor with the dynamic young secondary he has built over the past few years. That vision has become reality this season as despite key injuries to their leaders, their 3.1% interception rate ranks 2nd in the league with Calen Bullock and Derek Stingley finishing the season with 5 interceptions each.
Derek Stingley Jr.
Stingley was draft favorite for every man and his dog due to his ability to be a true lockdown shadow cornerback who could stay tied to anything that came his way. This is especially impressive considering that was when the SEC at the peak of its heights before the NIL era. He got to sharpen his skills vs the one true WRU every day in practice so much so that not even senior year injuries could stop the Texan’s taking him at 3rd overall. It took him a while to get the hang of the professional game but he is now firmly established as one of the league’s best corners. His coverage rating is 2nd in the league and his catch rate allowed is 3rd despite covering the 5th most routes in the entire league.
Quinten Johnston’s break out game couldn’t have come at a better time to give him confidence to take on the newly crowned first team All-Pro corner however I think this could be a quiet day for QJ as Stingley is a few levels beyond his current talents.
Kamari Lassiter
The former Georgia bulldog was someone who has surprised many with how well he has played in his rookie season given his 6.24 RAS score including a 4.64 40 yard time. I was always a fan of his tape as someone who plays far bigger than his size, he’s able to take on big receivers despite lacking elite height or the arm length to do so. He is however, the outside matchup I’d be trying to get Ladd McConkey into because he has had issues with twitchy speed receivers and had a tendency to false step in man coverage because of his eagerness to trigger downhill early in run support.
Calen Bullock
The rookie out of USC was a draft favorite of mine as I projected him to be the best single high free safety in the class. His smooth fluid style of movement and rapid downhill trigger has merged brilliantly with Ryans’ system and his 5 interceptions have all been misthrows but as a former free safety that’s not just luck, you have to match the quarterbacks’ eyes, have the speed to get there and the ball skills to earn that pick. His snag against Jordan Love was the best of the bunch as he saw it early, drove on it and high pointed the ball over Christian Watson’s very tall head.
As much as I have been a fan of what he can do patrolling the intermediate middle of the field, between Eric Murray and the rookie, that back line should not deter Herbert from testing deep throws whenever the opportunity presents itself. The Texans have allowed the 13th highest explosive play rate and the 2nd most throws of 40+ yards per game so I think this is one area Roman should attempt to exploit.
Jalen Pitre (on Injured Reserve)
When I realized Pitre was done for the season I was more than relieved. That dude is a mismatch destroyer, he can flatten offensive lineman with 100 lbs on him and he can beat any back to the edge. He’s like a smaller version of Derwin when he gets into the box and as a true slot, he is in the box more often which wrecks run concepts all too often.
Before Pitre got injured in Week 12 the Texans’ boasted a 0.096 EPA/play on MOFC coverage calls. Since then they have dropped to 0.076, whilst that is still excellent it is clear that the effect has been felt. The MOFC usage percentages are almost identical too so it shows Ryans’ has not adapted to his absence.
Pass Rush
The Texans’ blitz rate from this season was 22.4% which ranks 27th in the league, with no blitz category higher than bottom 10. On top of that they also rarely ever run sim pressures, 4.4% is the lowest rate in the league by a large distance. This means that when they do send pressure it is almost always with an extra off ball player and the four lineman. They rarely put anyone on the line of scrimmage who isn’t being sent to attack the QB.
This is a generally a conservative pass defense which relies on the talents of their players to win out. The results, however, have been as prolific as the 49ers’ peaks; they rank 3rd in the NFL with 48 sacks. Their sack rate of 7.7% is good for 3rd in the league. This is mostly thanks to the dynamic pairing of Hunter and Anderson Jr.
This style of pass rush can be seen as unsustainable though especially against teams with better offensive tackles (like Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt) and the stats prove this. Between the pair of them they have a total of 3 sacks against winning teams and they have padded their way through an easy schedule, especially when playing in a very weak AFC South division.
The team as a whole have earned 25 sacks against their division opponents, over half of their total, across those six games. Another metric that proves this is that whilst they are second in total sacks, their Pass Rush Productivity (this is pressures, hits, hurries and sacks combined) is only 18th in the league and their
Danielle Hunter
It was a very clever addition to bring Danielle Hunter from the Vikings to fill the vacated Edge position as he was built for a defense like this who send 4 and look for iso matchups on the outside. He is a masterful technician who will provide a lot of tough reps for Rashawn Slater. This style alignment has been working too as he finished the season with a seriously impressive resume featuring 12 sacks and ranks 1st in Pass Rush Win Rate (ESPN) 4th in True Pressure Rate (Trench Warfare) and 1st in Pass Rush Wins (PFF).
Stopping Hunter is the absolutely vital to winning this game. Roman’s favoring of heavier personnel can help here as Demeco Ryans likes to set his defensive ends’ alignments inside tight ends so he can get double teams and chip help.
Will Anderson Jr
His comrade on the opposite edge of the front, Will Anderson, is another perfect fit for this defense, he has another 11 sacks. However when you look at Brandon Thorn’s True Pressure Rate, Anderson is 44th yet he ranks 4th in the league for pressure to sack conversion rate with 9 of his 12 sacks coming from ‘low quality’ reps or through other influences like coverage and clean up sacks.
If I was Greg Roman and Mike Devlin I’d be sliding to the left more often in pass protection as Hunter is just too dangerous to leave alone for long stints no matter how elite Slater has been. The Bolts’ rookie tackle has been incredibly impressive in pass protection with a 94% which is 4th in the entire league according to ESPN so I think he can be trusted to take on Anderson Jr himself given his overinflated numbers.
Ryans’ prefers to run man pressures on 3rd down too which is pretty old school. They blitz on 41% of their man snaps. Coaches who have been around will remember the move away from this when Bill Walsh and the West Coast offense started to throw ‘hot’ which nullified the concept. Yet once again the results contrast with the league wide trends, despite being predictable their sack percentage on late downs is 11.6%, good for 4th in the league.
An example of Demeco Ryans has been getting success despite sending basic 4+1 pressures with man coverage behind, is his use of Boss overload fronts this season and it has been getting good results.
One factor to consider is what Denico Autry can bring to their line on these concepts on his return from injury, with fresh legs the 34 year old can provide some impact in rotation. He hasn’t been at his peak this season registering only 3 sacks and 17 pressures across 10 games however he is a talented veteran who can dominate weaker lineman especially when shooting inside.
Schematic Weaknesses
One thing that the Kansas City Chiefs did really well against Ryans’ man heavy plan of attack was to use short motion to get a speed release so that the cross formation man beating routes were able to break out to the other side of the field before the dynamic pass rush duo of Hunter and Anderson Jr were able to even get close to Patrick Mahomes. Greg Roman’s motion rate of 51.8% is below league average but I have been a fan of how he uses it to get Ladd McConkey free releases into the slot and this could be a key way to get him the ball to open up the running game.
Both Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have had success running the ball in recent weeks and the Texans have been exposed to it all year long. They have allowed a league worst 6.67 yards per attempt and with Justin Herbert fully healthy, as he showed on the play below, I think it’s time for Roman to roll out the designed quarterback run section of the playbook that I am sure he has been waving in Harbaugh’s face all season.
Final Matchup Analysis
Where the Chargers match up well with the Texans:
- The Chargers’ use of heavier personnel will matchup well with the Texans’ stiff Nickel base in the run game. If J.K. Dobbins gets off to a hot start I think Roman will be able to base everything else off of these looks. Gap runs like Trap can be copied from the Ravens’ game plan to establish the ground game early.
- Play action has become Herbert’s second language after struggling with it early in his career, Roman has an advantage if he draw the Texans’ less experienced box players into the run to gain vertical spacing in behind.
- Ryans’ old school defense is the kind of scheme Greg Roman earned his stripes against and I believe his drop back pass concepts are battle tested now and can look to stretch the field keep this Texans’ secondary from flying downhill.
- The use of short motion behind stacks can get Ladd free releases, which against man can spell disaster.
Where the Texans have mismatch advantages:
- Derek Stingley Jr is a problem all on his own. I expect him to shut down one side of the field and he is actually someone who can threaten the quick tunnel screens that we have been seeing to QJ too.
- The Chargers’ lack of a convincing third receiver option means that the Texans can play two man with brackets over both Ladd and Johnston. This is the one coverage I think Roman has struggled to find answers to and if Ryans sees this on tape it will force the Chargers to run the ball a lot more than they’d want to.
- I think the pass rush versus pass protection is a wash on the outside but what it does allow for is Ryans to send pressure up the middle especially out of their dangerous Boss front, the Chargers’ weaknesses here may crack which would be a major advantage for the Texans.
- The return of Azeez Al-Shaair will provide a lift to their ability to fit the run especially on the zone run concept that the Bolts have lacked success with all season long.
Conclusion
This side of the ball is a much tougher match-up for Jim Harbaugh’s men. I am confident that there are areas that Roman can attack but if the run game falls apart against the Texans’ physical defense then how the rest of the game plan pivots away from there is a bit worrying. That said, I still see the Chargers outscoring the 17 point cap I put on the Texans’ offense in my earlier article mainly because I think Justin Herbert is playing the best ball of his career and the offense is as healthy as you can expect.
My final result prediction is 24-16 to our Chargers and I will see you all on the other side of the next incredibly exciting 24 hours! Bolt Up!
This is a fantastic analysis! I am so glad that your site was mentioned tonight at BTFB. I will be coming here regularly from now on. Go Bolts!!!!
Glad to have you in the community! Let’s hope you’re the lucky charm for a big win today.