Introduction
Well we made it ladies and gentlemen. Our Chargers are in the postseason in Jim Harbaugh’s first season at the helm. Enough columns inches have been spent on just how impressive the turnaround from Harbaugh and his staff has been and maybe we’ll have more time to reflect on that in the off-season but for now, we have a playoff game to preview.
After Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals did the Chargers a favor by beating their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers, all the Chargers had to do was take care of business against the miserable Las Vegas Raiders to earn the 5th seed. They did just that and earned a trip to the NRG stadium in Houston to take on the Texans who finished as the 4th seed having won the AFC South with weeks to spare.
Many people picked the Texans to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl after a very impressive rookie season from their head coach and the sensational C.J. Stroud where they won a playoff game however progress is rarely ever linear and they have come back down to earth this season with some underwhelming performances, limping their way to a back-to-back division title. They are, however, in the dance and that made them an intriguing opponent to study.
So let’s get to understanding just who Demeco Ryans’ team are and how they will match up to Harbaugh’s men. I’ll start with the Offense before doing a separate article on their defense.
Summary
Bobby Slowik, the offensive coordinator, was high on interview lists for head coaching jobs this time last year after his explosive passing game torched NFL defenses for (insert 2023 stats here). Since then however it has been a difficult slog to get his offense to even get to an average mark.
Having lost their star trade addition in Stefon Diggs to injury it was even more upsetting to see Tank Dell go down with a terrible injury in the endzone. The explosive trio of Nico, Tank and Stefon was meant to own the skies of south Texas and beyond but the football gods denied them that opportunity. The issues of this offense stretch much further than the lack of passing uber-talented weapons.
Their run game faltered after a very impressive start, their offensive line has regressed dramatically and their lack of ability to score in the redzone have all culminated in a very disappointing season. They finished the season ranked 19th in scoring, 22nd in total offense, 24th in EPA per play and none of their star offensive players were able to break into the top 14 spots in any major metric.
My biggest criticisms of their offense can best be summed up by the Texans’ opening sequence from their Week 17 blowout loss to the Ravens shown in the video above.
- 1 & 10: Bobby Slowik went against tendency by running a Pin & Pull concept to the right against the Ravens’ an even front. Despite the fact the linebackers didn’t attack the pullers, this play still resulted in less than a single yard gained. The offensive linemen who were tasked with pulling were very slow off the mark and collectively had no punch to move Travis Jones out of the B gap then former Charger Kyle Van Noy collapsed the edge with ease for the stop. That’s a 4 on 2 advantage that went for no gain.
- 2nd & 9: Slowik went back to their beloved Outside Zone run concept to the same right side B gap with little success as Jones and Van Noy did the exact same thing for the exact same result.
- 3rd & 7: Slowik’s best answer to an early third and long was a backside isolated in breaker to Nico Collins that C.J . Stroud has to thread over the back shoulder of the dropping linebacker with some insane ball speed to put it in front of Nico’s hands so he can carry his momentum over the 1st down marker to beating the corner who is firing downhill. A successful result but not a play call you can or should rely upon.
This is just not a sustainable way of running an offense and relies on high percentile throws and careful route tempo control from their only elite receiver. This opening drive ended after on the next set of downs:
- 1st & 10 – An outside zone run to the left where Mixon reads all the gaps are shut and exits out of the backside C gap which is 6th in his read progression by then the second level has been able to surround the box. It’s a good read by the veteran back but Van Noy and others are waiting to stop him for a short gain.
- 2nd & 6 – Stroud turned down an early open window on his second level route that Slowik was hoping he’s find on the PA Boot. He held onto the ball in favor of the open low route which went nowhere as the guy running the route isn’t the kind of explosive athlete they built this offense around. A sign of a quarterback who is second guessing himself as he had the chance to get a first down if he acted quickly but instead only found a yard.
- 3rd & 5 – A very simple twist fooled the right guard and it ended up in a sack. C.J. froze with pressure right in his face. He did everything right but get a pass off, he stayed square and kept his chin up with his base solid underneath him but ultimately he didn’t have the confidence to take a shot. The issue here is that the man beaters they were relying upon crossing the middle of the field took longer than the coverage could hold up, that’s not smart play design on 3rd down.
Oof.
3rd down performance
That opening sequence from the loss to John Harbaugh’s men wasn’t an isolated incident. The Texans have averaged an insanely long distance to gain on 3rd down with 7.93 yards to go. Robert Mays of The Athletic has talked about this all season long and points out that they can’t hope to sustain any kind of success whilst Slowik struggles to find ways of avoiding this unwinnable situations. One additional factor that puts them into these situations is that the Texans are tied for 5th in penalties which includes 35 offensive pre-snap violations. This has only made the early down woes harder to stomach for Texans’ fans.
Overall the Texans are a pass-happy team. They rank 9th in passing percentage with a PROE (Pass Rate Over Expected) of +0.8% meaning they pass more than the situation determines. This shows that they clearly don’t trust their run game and the lack of running has caused them to be below league average at moving the chains as they have a third down conversion rate of 37.7% which ranks 20th in the league.
The stark outlier in the data is that on 3rd or 4th and short they have a baffling 5.4% PROE which ranks 3rd in the league. This plays into Jesse Minter’s hands as he prefers to stay in light to avoid selling out for the stop with heavy personnel in short yardage late down situations. They’ve been successful in these situations too with a total of -0.11 EPA/passing attempt on late downs.
Offensive Style & Tendencies
Bobby Slowik prefers to spread things out with 2×2, 1×3 and 3×1 formations making up just under 70%. One interesting thing is that their only positive EPA/play formation on early down is 3×1 which would play into the Chargers’ hands as their Dime personnel has one of their most successful, they use it 23.6%, the 3rd highest rate in the league. The Texans, as a trips heavy team, will likely want to beat the Chargers’ zone defense by overloading number count to one side.
One way to ensure this works is by using the increasingly popular 4×1 concept. This is not achieved by running empty but instead you run trips to one side but create the additional overload by having the back over to the trips side which is the opposite to conventional offensive structure. Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator of the Buffalo Bills, has been excellent at using this concept to get James Cook and Ty Johnson open against the popular Quarters coverage to the wide side of the field.
12 out of the 14 playoff teams use this concept at a heavy rate including Houston who were doing this earlier in the year but have gone away from it since. I think they might go back to it to try to force the Chargers into more man coverage using overloads like this which would also benefit Nico Collins being in isolation without safety help on the backside.
This would also suits Stroud’s style as he has ranks 2nd in completion % vs man with 64.7% but he is 39th(!) in completion % vs zone with only 56.3%. His passing rating reflects the same thing with 15th vs man and 33rd vs zone. It is clear to me that this is one of the reasons why C.J. looks like a completely different player this year as last year it was the opposite, he was composed against zone and struggled with man coverage. This is why Nick Caserio went and got Stefon Diggs but now without him Ryans, Slowik and Stroud are finding it hard to adapt.
Like the defense, the offense is stubborn to stick to their ways. They run 11 or 12 personnel 93.9% of the time but they are only the 19th ranked EPA per play across those groupings. They don’t run heavy looks with fullbacks or other running backs, they instead motion tight ends into the backfield in 12 personnel to be their early down bully grouping. They also do this from 11 personnel with Metchie in the backfield, they like to do this for defenses to show their hand with split back looks without taking weapons off of the field.
Whilst this may work to open up passes to the backfield, they haven’t really threatened by running out of it enough and it has therefore become predictable much like their pistol based run game. I think we’ll see this formation at least once in the first quarter to see how the defense respond to it. With the ball in his hands, in this much space Mixon is a big threat especially if Slowik is able to get blockers in front of him like in this example above back in Week 11.
One metric I have seen in other game previews is that the Texans rank as 5th in terms of Time of Possession however unlike the Chargers, I don’t think this is by design. Their problems with early down play calling means they average 13.6 third downs per game which ties for 3rd in the league. With the added context of having such a high yards to gain mark, this goes a long way to explaining why their offensive output has been so low as they have to drive the entire field three downs at a time to get to the redzone where they a whole other set of issues.
They struggle to generate explosive plays too with the 6th lowest SUPLEX rating (success and explosive plays on early downs) in the league which is the worst of any playoff team. Their issues on offense stretch to every corner of the field and if it wasn’t for Ka’imi Fairbairn’s league leading 13 field goals from over 50 yards, I think they might have missed the playoffs altogether even in such a weak division.
Redzone Offense
The Texans’ redzone offense is not good at all. They rank 28th in EPA/play in this area of the field and that’s over the whole season when they had Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell available. This form follows over to their success rate where they are 28th with 40% once you take away garbage time.
The biggest weakness they have is that they are too one dimensional; they rank 28th in the redzone rushing so defensive coordinators only have to look at one side of the call sheet. This matches up perfectly with the fact that the Chargers are the 2nd ranked redzone rush defense so they can spend their entire redzone practice section on pass concepts they are likely to see. Stroud isn’t the issue here, he has made some exceptional redzone plays like the one below but it’s not enough on its own.
Passing Attack
That brings us neatly onto C.J. Stroud and the passing game. Whilst I still see the immense talent that gave us one of the best rookie quarterback seasons of all time, his 2024 season has been close to a disaster. The statistics speak for themselves but it’s his own words that give the best insight into how he is feeling less than a few months after being one of the most confident young players in the league.
“I’m just not making enough plays, there are times where the plays are there to be made and there are guys open and I got to find a way to make the play work”… “I just wasn’t making throws. At the same time, I got to find a way to stand in there stronger and make those throws. There was some miscommunication with me and some of the receivers, but ultimately up to me to make the throw when guys are open.”
C.J. Stroud to Aaron Wilson, KPRC 2 Houston Texans Reporter, after the Week 17 loss to Baltimore
I think Stroud is really not seeing the field with confidence which is the polar opposite to his rookie year. He makes the correct reads but as the season has gone on he has become hesitant to pull the trigger and lacks the anticipation he showcased last year. There is a good argument to be made that this is most likely due to losing Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to season ending injuries. His demeanor has completely changed without them by his side, he’s not the free going easy leader who felt sure enough in himself to give some midfield advice to the rookie Caleb Williams all the way back in Week 3.
I think a lot of his confidence came from the fact he was secure in knowing his guys would be there when the pressure came in his face, he could throw with anticipation based on practiced tempo and now that’s just not happening anymore due to the absences of his two security blankets.
There are some throws the C.J. Stroud is just plain missing, the above play call on 2nd and 9 was a Smash route combination which is a brilliant call against the disguised Tampa 2 coverage the Ravens were running. The corner route was the right read and Stroud held the safety well with his, he has his feet set with a clean pocket but his footwork falls apart and this ball sails on him to miss his wide open receiver by a long long way.
He doesn’t miss these easy throws at all last year, in fact he was elite in this area as he was able to use his outstanding footwork and smooth throwing action to get the ball out last minute after drawing defenses in. I think that he has tried to rely upon that ability to make plays at the last second way too often this season and it has not been a smart decision based on what has been going on around him.
CJ Stroud’s Time to Throw is the 4th highest amongst starters (2.98 seconds) despite their offensive line struggling. They rank in the bottom tier for almost all metrics but the most relevant here is that they have allowed the 3rd most pressured throws at 143. C.J. is certainly inviting more pressure by holding onto the ball this long but with their predictable and ineffective early down play calling, he might not have a choice in this as he has to force the issue all too often.
“C.J. Stroud’s propensity to hold the ball for a long time hasn’t helped, but an 11.3% sack rate in the face of the blitz (28th) is not simply down to him not getting the ball out fast enough. Houston also allows a 35.6% pressure rate (28th) against four or fewer pass rushers.”
Minter is normally structured in his three down compositions and early in this game I’d expect him to stay with that process to mirror the Texans who will likely be making it easy for him to do so. Jesse will look to play regimented and secure on early downs to keep the opposition behind the sticks then make it complex and aggressive on late downs to get off the field.
Nico Collins
One thing I am definitely worried about is how good the connection has been between Nico Collins and his quarterback. Jim Harbaugh knows Nico’s talents all too having recruited him and coached him for his three years at Michigan before he was drafted in 2021. His unique blend of size and speed is unmatched in the league in my opinion and to stop him breaking the game open will take special attention from Jesse Minter and his defense.
Minter’s dependency on using Quarters or Cover 6 to answer spread looks looks means he will be relying upon Kristian Fulton, Tarheeb Still or Cam Hart to play the strong side outside deep zones on their own. They will be playing from an outside leverage which just will not work against Nico if he breaks his route inside as he is so tall that he frames defenders out. Collins is so smooth out of his speed breaks too so it’s not as if they can recover once he drops his weight either.
Against the Chargers’ early down coverage choices dig routes have been a problem all season, especially earlier in games. Liam Coen and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense repeatedly used the Dagger concept to get the dig open for a lot of success. My hope is that Minter will use the same adjustment he did later in the game against Tampa where in his Cover 6, the weak side safety’s read was changed to look at the boundary X receiver first before checking for crosser routes. In the playbook I know and love this is called a Condor adjustment to the standard Cover 6 Buzz.
This has to be combined with getting his linebackers to climb as well in order to free up the corner to undercut this route to make this a risky throw. After being taken apart on the same route again and again by Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan for most of the first half, Minter’s made this adjustment to put Tarheeb Still in a position to play this route in a way that will give Slowik and Stroud pause if they see the same adjustment early. Still is the best out of the group at undercutting in-breaking routes as he illustrated in the example above so if Jesse can get him in this position again he can bait Stroud into a game changing mistake.
However the rookie can’t realistically hope to take on Nico in man coverage with consistent success like Hart or Fulton could, so how Minter matches their formations is going to be very interesting. Outside Collins they have a very real drop problem with Stroud’s receivers putting down 20 catchable balls which ranks 4th in the league. Against the Ravens in particular John Metchie III, Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson all struggled to get open so we might see some quirky adaptations in order to shut down their offensive focal point. The introduction of Diontae Johnson might add some needed juice but he is not worth game planning for considering he has only had two catches in a Texans’ jersey.
Pass Protection
If this was 2023 then Laremy Tunsil Vs Khalil Mack would have been a fantastic match up that analyst’s across the league would have been excited about but whilst Mack has admittedly taken a small step back, Tunsil has suddenly become a yellow-flag magnet as he is the second most penalized offensive lineman in the league with league leading 9 false start calls against his name.
The rest of the line has been a changing picture with multiple players missing time with injuries and others being benched for poor play. Tytus Howard moved from Right Tackle to Left Guard in Week 15 and the results have been better with only 4 sacks given up in 3 games since compared to 42 sacks surrendered in the previous 14. The sample size is too small to know if this improvement is for real as they got obliterated by the Ravens and the Titans game was a reserve-ridden wash so this new grouping hasn’t had much of a test. The lineup might change again as Shaq Mason is carrying an injury designation as their starting right guard as he logs two DNPs to start the week.
Pro Football Nework publish an analysis of Offensive Line performances at the end of each gameweek using something they refer to as the ‘OL+’ metric. On the season they had the Texan’s graded as the 31st unit across the league with Grade of 52.4 (F).
“It hasn’t been a great season for the Houston Texans’ offense, and the OL’s play is a big part of the reason. There haven’t been any truly disastrous games, but they’ve had six games graded as a D+ or worse and 10 games with a C- or worse. It’s hard to perform well consistently on offense with that level of line play. They have played better since the bye, ranking 17th over the last four weeks.”
This was evident on tape too as the Ravens ruined their pass protection on 3rd down with creative blitz calls from their Jet front which was paired with a ‘Diner 2’ pressure path on at least two occasions. This is a call where both edges line up in the B gaps and the interior defensive lineman go to 5 techniques outside the offensive tackles. Baltimore paired this with coverage disguises to end up in a Tampa 2 coverage look but from two completely different pre-snap alignments.
The Chargers’ won’t emulate this exactly as they don’t have the athletes at Outside Linebacker to drop into coverage but this could more be ran out of Minter’s Turbo personnel that we have seen later in this season where Tuli Tuipulotu and Daiyan Henley fill the roles of the outside linebackers with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack staying at the edge spot but attacking inside with power to clear out the guards. This would make a lot less clear to Jarrett Patterson, their current center, who might fail to adjust to it which would leave the apex pressure paths from Derwin James and Tarheeb Still left wide open.
I have been saying all season long that I am waiting to see MInter’s 5+ man pressure concepts and in Week 17 I believe we saw a glimpse of the post season plan of attack for Minter’s men. Given the struggles of the Texans’ pass protection outside of Laremy Tunsil, I think Minter will send off-ball blitz elsewhere in search of the double advantage of putting pressure on his less talented team mates and see if Mack is able to tempt Tunsil into a false start.
Ground Game
The biggest and most consistent problem for the Texans has been their run game which is ranked as 29th overall in EPA/play. The run game is zone heavy with them running it 64.6% of the time as Slowik is a Shanahan disciple from his time in Washington and San Francisco. That said, he has not been able to emulate the success of his mentor at all. One of the issues they face is that they are predictable as they run out of the same Pistol formation at the highest rate in the league. Not only do teams expect a zone run from this same look but they also have a strong tendency to run in one direction, they run left on 62% of their snaps which is the highest one sided rate in the entire league.
It makes it even easier to defend against as the tape shows that their offensive line has struggled to dig out and drive gaps open as we saw in the opening drive against the Ravens. Therefore they can’t even rely on these simple concepts to get ahead of the chains. Their line has failed to give Joe Mixon any kind of daylight and it has led to him being 2nd in the league in stuffed runs with 57.
“This line has also struggled with the run game. They rank 31st in RBYBC/rush (0.61) and 30th in RBWR. That makes some of Joe Mixon’s performances this season even more impressive than they first looked.”
Pro Football Network’s Offensive Line Analysis
They also run out of trips at a much higher rate than most teams which means they think they can take advantage of light boxes which is something the Chargers have been great at with their 6+1 run fits from nickel and dime. My guy Stefan Rabicano at Thinking Football has brilliantly illustrated how Minter has been so good at stopping the run without committing bodies to it.
Final Matchup Analysis
Where the Chargers match up well with the Texans:
- The Chargers’ light box run fit defenders can tee off on their predictable run game to put them into 3rd and long where the Texans have been forced into high percentage throws.
- Creative pressure paths from off-ball players like Derwin James can further erode C.J. Stroud’s confidence.
- The Texans’ propensity for 11 personnel allows Minter to stay in his preferred Nickel and Dime groupings which can shut down all receivers not named Nico Collins.
- C.J. Stroud’s struggles against zone coverage make a date with the Chargers high reliance on it, a very poor matchup for Houston.
- Slowik’s recent use of 12 personnel fits well with the Chargers’ recent ability to erase talented tight ends with Daiyan Henley and Derwin patrolling the hash marks.
- Against the Patriots, Minter went back to blitzing at-the-snap cross formation motion which, if continued, would match up well with the Texans use of it to get a head start on jet sweeps.
Where the Texans have mismatch advantages:
- Nico Collins has no equal in the Chargers’ secondary and if he left in isolation, particularly on in-breaking routes, he will go close to meeting Mike Evans’ numbers from Week 15.
- At times the Chargers have shown a weakness in tackling, this has not been consistent but if that problem rears its head then Collins, Mixon and the tight end Cade Stover can earn extra yardage as all three have all shown the ability to run through weak tackle attempts.
Conclusion
From the very beginning of my tape review of the Texans’ offense I was excited by just how well Jesse Minter’s defense matches up with Bobby Slowik’s scheme. As you can see from the match up analysis above, the Texans’ path to victory will likely rely upon one, albeit elite, receiver and a very talented yet out-of-form quarterback finding him. That is a narrow window for success against any defense however Minter’s unit has repeatedly shown that it takes a lot more than one dimension to beat them even when they are not playing at their best.
Therefore I see the Chargers holding the Texans’ offense to less than 17 points. The other side of the ball is a whole other story, look out for that dropping in the next few days.
Fantastic article! Thanks
I had the exact two worries listed when I had a conversation with someone about the game:
-Nico running wild like Jakobi Myers last week until we adjusted
– Tackling and angles toward making said tackle – we have had issues here. This is something that should not happen at this point in the season. Hopefully it doesnt
Still think we can keep HOU to a low score which means the O will need to maintain drives like it has been lately and the W is there for the taking
Superb article, Ryan. I learned a lot. With regard to Mixon, he is still a powerful runner with speed to boot. Having Denzel back should help the Chargers here.
This is terrific, Ryan. Thank you.
I believe your final analysis, as perhaps most of the national media must since they are nearly (and worryingly) unanimous in their pick for a Chargers win.
My biggest worry, and this comes from a historical perspective predating 2024, is the role of the Bolts’ IDL in this game. While Stroud and Collins have a great connection, it will be made worlds easier for them if Joe Mixon is allowed to run for 4+ ypc. My eyes will be focused early on Tart and Ford to insure this game is put into Stroud’s hands. If the IDL can negate the Texans’ running game, my beers will go down much easier. If Mixon begins to look Pro Bowl, there will be belching.