We’ve just released Episode 139 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis is below:
So, the Chargers lost in the Wild Card Round and Justin Herbert played his worst game of the season. Does that sound familiar, #BoltFam? This is the grim reality now facing the team after its 16-3 loss to New England following which OC Greg Roman and OL Coach Mike Devlin were fired: DC Jesse Minter is almost certainly leaving the team to be a Head Coach somewhere else next season; Justin Herbert is 0-3 in the Playoffs; and he will be asked to learn a 5th offensive system under a new Offensive Coordinator in 2026 (whoever that is). Never have there been more moving parts for us to piece together. Join us today on TDU as we try to make sense of this Wild Card Round Disaster. Don’t miss it!
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Hope you enjoy the episode! Thanks so much for listening 🙂
Alister (@TDU_Alister)
As always, another great show, but bittersweet because it’s the last season one. As you guys mentioned, you were happy and a little surprised that Harbaugh was able to make the change off of Roman. I was surprised as well, because I felt that he wouldn’t want the potential upheaval of changing both coordinators in the same offseason. I was more surprised because I didn’t think he actually had the ability to really step back, realize that a big change was needed and execute it. He has been so successful in his current way of operating, it tells me that he is really committed to win a SB. If this is the case, how extreme do you think the changes can be? Could this be a slight variation of how he envisions the offense or do you think he is willing to get really uncomfortable to go to a McDaniel or Kingsbury offense? Could he think a more drastic approach is necessary?
As far as Keenan, while I haven’t had the All-22 to confirm it, but he looked like he slowed down at the end of the season. He dropped more passes in the last few weeks then I can remember, and he just didn’t have the same “juice” he did earlier in the season. I wrote in Tau’s Cap article that I think this team can still use another vertical separator who can open up the deep part of the field. With only 5 draft picks currently, I would like to go the FA route for someone like Alec Pierce. Adding some young, but not overly expensive WR talent will help now and prepare us for QJ leaving after next season, since I would not offer the 5th year option.
Looking forward to all the upcoming offseason FA and draft content and mixing it up with you guys there. Enjoy a little break. You guys have done another wonderful job of creating some fun and informative content all year with the pod, YouTube and the X account.
FWIW, I have a secondary (High School) English Education degree, even though I do not teach, so the teachable moment always is a highlight for me. So, I wanted to put forth my own little teachable moment/comment. I posted this in another thread but I think it fits here as well, being the last regular pod for the 2025 season. I recently read The Great Gatsby for the 4th time and I think the final line sums up Charger fandom succinctly (or frankly any fanbase chasing their first championship).
“So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”
Jack asked me to tell you that he loves that Great Gatsby quote (said it was one of his favourites).
On your first question, I think it’s hard for me to answer without knowing whether (a) Harbaugh instigated the Roman/Devlin departures or, (b) it was forced on him by ownership (with some Hortiz involvement).
During his press conference yday, Harbaugh came back to one of Money’s questions to clarify that he intended to keep a completely open-mind about the scheme the new OC would bring with him. I took this as a “McDaniel” question from Money (indirectly), and since we’ve recently learned that McDaniel will be interviewing with the Chargers, I suspect that’s what drove Harbaugh to clarify his position on schematic preference (that is, he doesn’t have any preconceived notions). It would be unprofessional for him to state a preference for a downhill/gap run game when they have asked McDaniel to interview. I’ll still be very surprised if they hire McDaniel or Kingsbury to be honest, mainly because I think they’ll invite Daboll to interview, I think that Daboll will want the job. And if Daboll wants the job, I think Harbaugh will prefer that option over all other candidates (he ticks so many boxes, as Ryan highlighted so well in his article) and then lobby the Spanii/Hortiz to hire him.
I would love the Alec Pierce pairing with Herbert. A true deep threat. But I think he might have priced himself out of the range we’d be looking for at WR in free agency with consecutive strong seasons.
Cheers for all the support this year, Erick. We will enjoy our break and I’ll keep chopping it up with you in here until we return.
Interesting OC possibility with connections to Harbaugh.
Hot coordinator candidate would be perfect fit for Chargers and Justin Herbert https://share.google/wScu7lgtAnzZUe1ow
Good share, Buck. I’d seen a couple people mention his name but didn’t know anything about him until reading that article.
I put this one in the same bucket as “McDaniel”: that Kubiak/Shanahan inspired playbook is so diametrically opposed to what Harbaugh has always done, that it would be pretty shocking to see a move like. We definitely have some of the lighter/more athletic personnel for that type of scheme (Slater/Zion/even Alt) but you don’t typically see moves like this one. Just like you don’t see a Shanahan tree HC lining up to hire Greg Roman. Time will tell! There’d certainly be more ‘easy buttons’ for Herbert in the passing game with a hire like this.
You guys ever watch Kurt Warner’s StudyBall videos? I never watched one until the one this week on Herbert and the offense. Al, he probably highlighted a number of the issues you said you saw on film.
It was pretty critical on Herbert, though Kurt admits he doesn’t know exactly how Herbert is coached to handle his progressions, and he also didn’t mention the wind being any factor.
I’ve watched Kurt Warner’s show before (Confidential, I think it’s called?)
I find his break downs a little more surface-level than JT O’Sullivan’s, but I still think they’re good. He uses the broadcast All-22 angle only (not behind the QB) and doesn’t quite go into all the same details about pass pro on a play or what the OC might be thinking; at least not all the time. But obviously, he’s an MVP QB of the league so I respect his opinion. I haven’t watched his Herbert breakdown yet. I might do that right now actually. Let’s see if he’s pulled out some of the same ones from my list below!
I think the tape shows you the “how” with the missed throws downfield but not the ‘why’. Is he not seeing things properly because of the train wreck that his pass protection has been this season? Is he seeing everything but making more conservative choices deliberately because it’s a playoff game and he’s terrified of turnovers (hangover from the Houston game)? Or because these were Roman’s instructions?
Those plays aren’t being pulled out of thin air. They will have been discussed ad nauseum in the game plan meetings for this game and walk-through, and they’re being called for a reason; so if Herbert knows they’re being called to hit those chunks and he’s not throwing them, there’s a real problem there.
We’ll never hear Herbert talk about the reasons why this game went the way it did, but it’s shaken my confidence in him at least a little bit. Would love to hear an explanation that made me feel better about it.
I would also like the 10-ish plays where every receiver is covered because the scheme is so vanilla tidied up by the new OC. Those weren’t on Herbert and caused more of the spotlight to be shone on his own errors from the game.
The thing that struck me about the Warner StudyBall video on this game was that he said several times that he didn’t understand why Herbert didn’t make a throw, because “we got exactly what we wanted” from the play.
He said it appeared he was very rushed through his progressions and inclined to bail on the pocket too early many times.
He also said “I’ve seen Herbert make this throw a million times” several times to underline his confusion on why Herbert didn’t make these throws. It was clear that he thinks highly of Herbert and did not understand the poor performance.
Agree with the Herbert criticism. The pressure on him is only going to be greater entering the playoffs next year.
I agree that it is justifiable to criticize Harbaugh for his choice to hire Roman as OC and approve of his offensive scheme and playcalling. It has been obvious to everyone outside the building that approval was not aligned with Harbaugh’s assertions that he wants to win a Super Bowl, make Herbert a HOFer, etc. It is good that Harbaugh finally felt compelled to make this move.
It will matter a lot who the new OC is. We need someone with a modern day offense. More motion, more play action, more screen passes, more intelligent route combinations, more intelligent target choices (e.g., checkdowns to better players than Fisk and Matlock; better suited routes for Johnston), better pass blocking scheme, etc.
About Allen, as Jack said, he graded out as the best passing game target (not just among WRs) according to PFF, and it wasn’t particularly close. Jack said he would have to come back for something like $5M, not $8M. Well his cap hit in 2025 was $5.27M, not $8M. Does that imply that Jack is happier with his 2025 performance? IMO it absolutely was not the wrong decision to bring him back in 2025, and I think they should do it again. The coaches control his usage, not Allen himself. If they want to play Harris or Ladd more or differently, they can do that. They are going to need another WR besides Ladd, Harris, Johnston, KLS, and Davis, and I don’t want them to even consider spending draft capital on a WR.
I like Jack’s teachable moment. If you read my first post on the offseason, I wrote that very optimistically. I think the opportunity is there for Hortiz and Harbaugh to make decisions this offseason that help the Chargers win the AFC West and the #1 AFC seed in 2026.
Another good show, guys. Enjoyed sharing this season with you.
Just for completeness, below I have written out the things Herbert did in the game that I charted down as being his ‘error’ from my All-22 watch:
Clear Errors (3):
o Q1: Missed TD opportunity to Ladd (second snap of the game on broken play). Granted this is not where the route was designed to go, but Ladd gets open calling for the ball for a long time and Herbert’s eyes are on the rush instead of downfield. The positive is he takes off and it’s still a 9 yd gain.
o Q3: Underthrown ball down the left sideline to Ladd on 3rd & 7 (first drive of second half). Ladd could have caught it but if the throw is better it’s probably a deep completion. He has less arm strength on this throw than usual and it’s flat instead of layered. Difficult throw rolling left but he’s Justin Herbert and makes these all the time.
o Q4: Late throw to QJ on 2nd & 7 comeback route to the backside, should have been intercepted by Gonzalez and could’ve been a pick-six. You can’t throw late to the backside of the play like that. It’s asking for trouble.
“Arguable” Errors (4):
o Q1: Deep shot opportunity to Ladd missed on Post against Non-Traditional Tampa-2 Coverage. This is a premium look and would have loved him to uncork this with a chance to score (Drive #1 on 3rd & 12, chose the check-down to Gadsden for 10 yds instead leading to the 4th & 2 Punt).
o Q1: Bails from pocket on 4th & 2 RZ failure. All Out Blitz but chance to hit QJ on the shallow drag route by either setting quickly and throwing on time or buying time/deep drop and leading him into the open part of the end zone.
o Q2: Turns down Ladd on Slot Deep Bender 1st & 10 from NE 33. Another TD opportunity missed. Results in 7 yard completion to Tucker Fisk in the flat.
o Q3: First pass play of the second half, deep shot opportunity to Ladd again on Sail route, opts for Tucker Fisk check-down (no gain). Could’ve been a 25+ yard chunk.
Bad QB Plays/Risks (2):
o Incomplete Pass/Almost Fumble/INT from LAC 8 on 1st & 10 trying to flip the ball to Vidal. Take the sack if the initial hot route isn’t open. Risked a turnover instead.
o Sacked by Chaisson/Lost Fumble on 2nd & 10 with 8:17 remaining in Q4 (3-16). Situational awareness. Should’ve eaten the sack when pocket collapsed with so much time left. Could’ve got injured here trying to do too much and took a severe hit. Looked like a car crash.
In total, that is about 3x the number of errors I would usually chart in a Justin Herbert game. I don’t want to be too harsh on him. There were confounding factors and he was not set-up to succeed given the RB and OL injuries, and the playcalling. But we have to call a spade a spade. It wasn’t a good game from him either and he usually plays better.
Hopefully we get this next OC hire right so he can correct this concerning trend in playoff games.
At this early stage do you have any preferences? I think Daboll and Monken would be mine. And McDaniel (although this would be a significant schematic shift from Harbaugh so I find it hard to believe).
Fair comments here. They could modify his usage if they brought him back. I am going to find it hard to look past the tape he put out to end this season (~last 4-5 games). This playoff game in particular was about as close as I would ever come to alleging that a player has ‘given up’ on the field. HIs second half tape was absolute rubbish.
Is it unfair to focus on the end of the season when the broader sample has been pretty darn’ good? Usually I would say absolutely that’s unfair. But when it’s an older player who might reasonably be expected to find December/January football more difficult than September football, following a long season, it is a little harder to ignore the recent results. That’s the most important part of the season and he was part of the problem this year, not the solution.
I think you could reason your way to moving on from Keenan using the “recent form” + “Ladd’s “regression” (whether or not Keenan is the cause, which is hard to know, there’s a correlation) + “bury the 2025 season/move forward with a different group of players” trifecta. But if they choose to go around with him again, I will not be furious or anything. I would want to see his role changed though back to how they used him in the middle of the season against Minnesota and Tennessee (18 and 24 snaps respectively, 87.8 Grade and 73.7 Grade)
Thanks brother! We enjoyed you sharing it with us too. And Jack was thrilled to hear you enjoyed his final #TeachableMoment of the season. It’s good to find reason for optimism around the chorus of criticism. And your 2026 offseason thoughts article has done a good job with that.
p.s. QJ ran a terrible route on that third ‘clear error’ above, but it’s still a late and dangerous throw
I don’t feel like I know enough about all of the candidates mentioned. I think Popper listed 12 or 14 candidates. I could see Daboll fitting with Harbaugh, as well as Monken, since he fit with brother John. I’m more skeptical about someone like McDaniel. Almost anyone they hire is going to (presumably) be an upgrade, so I am really looking forward to the announcement and the subsequent analysis of who we’ve got.
I will not be upset if they don’t re-sign him as long as they bring in another option who is equal or better. I recognize that I view Allen with sentimental value, which biases my thinking. Fortunately, this is pretty far down the offseason priority list, and I don’t think the decision will have a significant impact on 2026 and beyond.
Thanks for a great season of content, fellas. The amount of work you guys put in is much appreciated! Look forward to your off season insights. After a well deserved rest! Cheers
Thanks for the kind words mate. Much appreciated.
For the final time this season, #TDUFilm clips from the Wild Card game
Clip 1:
Clip 2:
Clip 3:
Clip 4:
Clip 5:
Clip 6: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2011036988275900910
Clip 7: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2011036289676775851
Clip 8: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2011223846431723850
Clip 9: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2011239938050965856
Clip 10: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2011269320840790516