We’ve just released Episode 137 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis is below:
The Texans snapped the Chargers four game win streak in Wk 17 and, with the 20-16 loss, the AFC West Title is now officially out of reach for Jim Harbaugh’s men. A slow start on Defense left the team in a 14-0 hole and, despite some Justin Herbert heroics in the second half, 5 sacks from the Houston Defense was enough to secure a narrow victory. With a playoff spot confirmed and only Wild Card seeding left to be settled, how should the Bolts approach their Wk 18 trip to Denver? Join us as we recap Sunday’s action and work through the different scenarios. Don’t miss it!
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Alister (@TDU_Alister)
Long time team fan, podcaster (with Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast), husband to a beautiful wife, friend to all fellow Chargers fanatics, and father-to-be!
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Due to the holidays I am a little behind in my podcast listening, so I just finished this episode. My thoughts.
Here are Scott’s punts vs. HOU:
#6 was a bad shanked punt. His other 6 punts averaged 41.8 yards with net average (ignoring penalties) of 40.7. You will be happy to know that all of the others besides #6 went more than 30 yards downfield.
Sure, we want better performance, and he typically delivers that. His season averages, which include the HOU game, are 47.5 and 41.3, respectively. No one is going to confuse him for an All Star, but he is fine.
I think your vitriol is misplaced here. The biggest 3 mistakes by far were the two allowed deep passing TDs and the Gadsden drop/interception, all of which were 7 point mistakes. Scott’s mistake(s) did not compare.
So basically 3/7 were shit punts, so I was close. I could see one, but three is inexcusable and handed Hou 3 points when we were clawing back into the game. I didn’t blame him solely like I said. He just received my snake.
It was a bad game, no doubt, but it wasn’t as bad as you have made it out to be IMO. I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree.
Mine are as well.
Lots of passion in this post, Erick! Haha. I’m becoming a moderating expert with all the comments I have to approve on Stormcloud with Kyle taking care of the fam at home 👅
I’m on the same page with you with the first few bullets mate.
I try not to expend too much energy on the Roman topic. Ryan did some research the other day and found only 3 examples historically of Harbaugh ever having fired a position coach, assistant or coordinator across his entire time coaching football teams in college and the pros (and two of those three were due to contracts expiring). I’ll believe that a change is coming at OC only when I see it.
I have a different take on the Keenan topic. He left the Chargers for the Bears to pursue more money. And now, even though he’s an older player and the week off would surely benefit his body, he is prepared to risk injuring himself in Wk 18 (which would materially impact the Chargers post-season chances), so that he can…you guessed…pursue more money.
The guy doesn’t care that much about the Chargers winning a championship. If it happens, I’m sure he’d be very happy. But, in my opinion, it is a secondary consideration for him behind the ruthless pursuit of cash. He’s made that very clear with his actions and continues to do so. As a result, I don’t care for him that much anymore, although I still enjoy watching him play.
Thanks for the kind words mate. Talk again soon!
I am surprised at your take on Keenan, and I disagree 100%.
The team gave him the contract with the incentives. Hortiz and Harbaugh are the ones who incentivized him to push to make another $1M if he gets 6 more receptions and 9 more receiving yards. I’m rather taken aback that you would suggest that he should forego those incentives to rest and protect his health in the best interest of the team.
If the team wants him to do that, they should just tell him they will grant him the extra $1M. Are they willing to do that? Not that I’m aware of.
I’m very surprised this situation puts you down on Keenan. I don’t know why you would expect anything different, given the contract the team has given him.
I think the same about the trade to Chicago. The only reason Keenan stood to have the cap hit he did in 2024 is because he had willingly restructured his contract in the past to benefit the Chargers. The team asked him to take a pay cut, it is not surprising at all that he didn’t want to do so. And it is not surprising at all that another team was willing to take on his contract as it was, without requiring a pay cut. He earned it.
Frankly, I am disappointed in your take on this. Two cents.
I’ve explained my position on these issues clearly in the past. Might just be an Australian v American thing. We value loyalty and team first players in this country (generally speaking). So what that he had an incentive laden deal? He had full potential to hit those incentives earlier in the year and now he has a decision to make heading into Wk 18.
Keenan has spoken clearly with his actions and that’s fine. He’s prepared to risk getting injured tomorrow and missing the playoffs.
I’m entitled to feel about that how I please and I’m not really sure why that would disappoint you since it’s a metaphysical/ethical question where reasonable minds can differ. The evidence is the evidence and he’s a money hungry guy. I don’t like money hungry guys.
The one caveat here is that that I am assuming from what I’ve read and heard that (a) he’s playing tomorrow and, (b) he was given a choice whether he would play. If either of those is wrong I will walk this take back.
I don’t aim to be provocative with my take on Keenan btw, or by raising the possible divide between Americans and Australians on this topic.
I think it’s difficult to disentangle our cultural backgrounds from our views on ethical questions like these. Things like the “American dream” are not part of my cultural upbringing. I was never taught to value trying to get rich. I think a lot of Australian kids are the same. It is quite probable that this colours the discussion.
For me, it really comes down to priorities here. What is Keenan’s main priority?
I can’t remember if you watch the coach’s film after games or not, but I’ve seen Keenan looking like he’s slowing down a little bit since the Eagles game. He doesn’t look to me to be quite as quick off the mark. The football season is long and takes it’s toll on an ageing body.
I suppose it’s possible that Keenan wants to play tomorrow because he thinks it’s important for his body to continue the weekly grind. So I have made some assumptions here – I must acknowledge that. But he also said quite specifically to Kris Rhim this week in response to a question about if he’s playing, that he has incentives to hit. It was the first thing he said. That seems to suggest what his main priority is whether or not it is in the interests of his body, future output, or the team.
We can leave this topic agreeing to disagree. And then we can revisit it perhaps if he suffers a season-ending injury tomorrow.
Well, it may not be your aim to be provocative, but your message here seems to be that Australians favor “loyalty and team first players” (commendable) and Americans instead favor “getting rich” (seemingly not commendable). I assume you don’t intend that to be the message because it could be viewed as insulting. (I’m not saying I’m insulted.)
It’s interesting that Australians who favor that kind of thinking are passionate about American football. The nature of NFL football careers is such that players need to maximize earnings while they can, since they can never know if a career ending injury or a cap driven trade or release is ahead, potentially canceling their contract. Even when those things don’t happen, most careers end at some point in a player’s 20s or 30s.
What’s more, the salary cap essentially creates competition between players — teammates — for finite cap dollars. Do you think Herbert is not a team first player since he did not take a discount on his top of market contract extension? Same question for Derwin. Same question for Slater. Same question that will come up over and over (Oweh, Tuli, Zion, Alt, McConkey, et al.).
If you don’t think that about Herbert and the others, why do you see a difference in that situation and Allen’s situation when he refused to take a pay cut and now wants to earn another $1M in incentives when he has one game left to do it and it seems quite achievable? They are all situations that amount to the same thing — getting as much money as possible.
I mean, Herbert could have given a discount that would have allowed to team to sign more quality free agents, to keep Poona, etc. Heck, they could have signed 2 IOL starters without settling for Becton… and it would have arguably been in Herbert’s own self interest. I’m not saying I believe he should have offered a discount. But it seems under your philosophy you would think that.
We’re not talking about Allen holding out, having off field issues, complaining about his teammates or coaches or lousy offensive scheme… or any other detrimental conduct. We’re talking about a football player who simply wanted to honor the contract the team agreed to with him for the 2024 season; it wasn’t Allen asking for more, it was the team asking him to take less, when the only reason his 2024 cap hit was so big was because the team restructured his contract twice. And now we are talking about a football player who wants to play one more football game to earn achievable incentives.
I asked Google “is Keenan Allen a team player?” Excerpts from the Google AI answer:
Two things can both be true. A player can care about maximizing compensation while also being a loyal, team player. Your take here seems to treat them as mutually exclusive. I disagree with that.
The reason I said I was disappointed in your take on Allen is because I think very highly of your Chargers opinions, and I think it is a shame that you have this opinion on a true all time Chargers great. Especially when you admit you have made assumptions because you really cannot know the complete truth of the matter.
I will accept your offer to agree to disagree, while noting your suggestion that we would only revisit this again if the outcome supports your viewpoint, but not if it supports mine.
Very good post, Tau.
I’ll reflect on everything you’ve written here. Maybe I’m holding Keenan to a different/unfair standard.
I think I’ve written this in the past, but career earnings influence how I feel about this topic. And the stage of a player’s career. The earlier in one’s career, the more sympathetic I am to ‘maximising compensation’. This would explain my current feelings towards Justin Herbert (not phased at signing the mega deal) and also why I respect what Tom Brady was doing towards the end of his career.
Towards the end of a career with $50m+ in total earnings I generally respect the players like Mack/Bosa whose priorities change and (at least arguably) become more team-oriented (do what it takes to help win a Super Bowl, ‘keep the band together’, etc). I hear you though. Keenan was open to earlier restructures of his deal.
I don’t think maximising compensation and being a loyal team player is always mutually exclusive. And I totally agree that Keenan has been a good, team player in other important respects. Between yourself and AI, you’ve done a good job at listing them out.
I guess I’m interested to at least know here where we might agree (if it all):
Do you agree that Keenan would benefit from an additional Bye week tomorrow so that he is fresher for wild card round?
If Yes, do you agree that by playing tomorrow, it suggests that Keenan’s highest priority is maximising compensation?
If Yes, do you think this would be an example where Keenan’s main objective and the team’s main objective (winning in the playoffs) are arguably at odds?
I land on Probably Yes. Yes. Probably Yes. But on Question #1 , the answer is not entirely straightforward and there is some relevant information potentially missing.
This is also a good post. It has been a quality exchange, as usual, which I appreciate.
On your questions:
1. Do you agree that Keenan would benefit from an additional Bye week tomorrow so that he is fresh for wild card round?
I think he would benefit but other than eliminating all risk of injury, I doubt it makes much of a difference. I assume his meeting/practice schedule is the same, regardless, so we are talking only about the game itself. My guess is that the staff will attempt to get him 6 receptions as early as possible, then pull him. Or, if he only has 1 catch midway through the 3Q, they will pull him. So I’m guessing it won’t even be a full game.
2. If Yes, do you agree that means that Keenan’s highest priority is maximising compensation?
His highest priority entering this game, yes. But there are two things about this.
First, it is nuanced. He won’t likely play a full game. And I expect like most all highly competitive and confident athletes, he probably doesn’t really see it as risky. He sees it as just another football game.
Second, the team has made it clear that it does not actually prioritize winning this game, so team priorities are not the same for this game as every other game this season. That makes it easier for a player with reachable incentives to focus more on that than normal.
3. If Yes, do you think this would be an example where Keenan’s main objective and the team’s main objective (winning in the playoffs) are arguably at odds?
In addition to everything else already written, it is also true that the Chargers have to field an offense for a full game even though they don’t necessarily care about winning it. They cannot rest all starters or critical players. Keenan will take some of those snaps, which means, for example, that Harris and Johnston don’t have to play more snaps. (Assuming McConkey sits out, but not sure about that.)
That said, I think one could certainly make your argument, I just don’t think it is as binary an argument as you make it out to be. What is the probability that Keenan gets hurt in a partial game to an extent that it affects him in the playoff game? IMO that probability is low. So maybe there is a 5% chance (pick your probability) that their objectives end up truly at odds.
Yet another great episode, thanks guys!
I have to say I am funnily enough feeling pretty hopeful after this loss. Basically everything went wrong during the first quarter and for the offense it was just mistake after mistake. Herbert was getting seemingly zero help at all. Despite all of that there was still a decent enough chance to win or tie this game at the end. I am inclined to think that the chance not that high for this amount of (mental) errors and mistakes taking place in 1 game.
I am also so god damned impressed with Herbert. He just never gives up and the shit he does on a football field is just plain amazing on a regular basis. I love rooting for that guy. Hopefully the rest of the team sees the tape this week and vows to play their effing hearts out for him in the playoffs. Herbert deserves more from his teammates and he deserves to get his first playoff win.
Thank you Arne! Happy New Year to you and yours.
Basically agree with you mate. It’s unlikely we will commit so many unforced errors again. Do I still worry that our team is too flawed to go on a 4 game run and win the Super Bowl? Absolutely. I think certain match-ups do not suit us well.
But I’m excited that some of the banged-up players get a rest this week. And heading into the Playoffs feeling confident about your QB, HC and Defense, certainly gives you a puncher’s chance!
After the Joe Alt injury in New York I basically accepted that the ceiling for this season wasn’t very high. Funnily enough that realization made me appreciate this season so much more. Gone were the enormous expectations and hope of the Chargers getting to a Super Bowl and instead I was able to just enjoy the games on a weekly basis.
Don’t get me wrong I still get very worked up and think about the Chargers an awful lot and watching games can still feel excruciating :). Toning down the expecations made me appreciate being a fan more. I will try to keep a hold of that feeling for the coming years but a season with a healthy Slater and Alt could make big expectations come seeping right back into this head of mine.
That’s a lot of words to just say that I am not expecting a 4 game run to the Super Bowl either. I just feel as though they accomplished quite a bit this season while they got dealt pretty shitty hands throughout. Adding a playoff win to this story would be a nice cherry on top and in my mind these guys deserve it. In any case I am very confident that whoever the opponent will be they will put up one hell of a fight. As a fan you can’t ask for much more than that.
I feel the same. I then remind myself that the 2 worst linemen on the OL are Bozeman and Becton; starters who’ve played most/all snaps. If both Alt and Slater were healthy, the interior OL would still suck @$$.
Let’s see where this season leads. There are no juggernaut teams. The Chargers have an elite defense and QB (and above-average offensive skill position players). Can they overcome the deficiencies in their OL and OC to win a championship? The odds are against them, but I’m still going to root for them.
Another good show, guys.
In Popper’s postgame podcast, he cited 9 major error plays that decided the game (in no particular order): the 2 blown coverage TDs, the 2 missed kicks, the Allen drop, the Gadsden drop interception, the 2 poor punts, and one more I am forgetting.
I would boil it down to 3 of those plays as being the game deciding mistakes: the 2 blown coverage TDs and the Gadsden drop interception. Even if all of the other mistakes happened, if any 1 of those 3 plays did not happen, the Chargers could have won. I don’t say they would have won, since not committing 1 of those mistakes would have made it a different game. But I think it is fair to say that those 3 plays were the most negatively impactful for the Chargers by far, since each one (arguably) cost the Chargers 7 points in a 4 point loss.
Popper asserted that the first blown coverage was a communication error, where some of the defense thought they were playing man and some thought they were playing zone; he said a call was made and all players did not get the call. He said the second blown coverage was an execution error.
With regard to the offensive playcalling, it wasn’t good again. OL problems continue, but the job is to overcome them. And, on that, WTF were they doing starting Hart at LT for the first time he has played the position in 3 seasons? What are they seeing in practice that makes this a good idea? He completely whiffed on the first 3rd down of the game in completely embarassing fashion, illustrating immediately that he was not prepared to succeed in his assignment. Seriously, they thought he was the best option? They thought it was okay not to give him more help on 3rd downs?
Back to Roman. Again, as we have said a number of times this season, where was the quick passing game outside of throws to Hampton? Allen (3 targets), McConkey (2 targets), and Harris (1 target) were virtually invisible. Especially McConkey… WTF?!?! How did Roman get McConkey 91 catches last season as a rookie and get him just 66 this season? (LOL, I wrote this before Alister’s outburst later in the pod… I agree 100% with the outburst.)
As for the possibility of playing HOU again, I wouldn’t be terribly concerned. I think it would be a virtual certainty they would play better in a second matchup, and I think this loss was more about Chargers mistakes than Texans playing well. Likely fewer egregious mistakes for the Chargers, and hopefully an improved offensive game plan.
Alister talked about his concern over Minter leaving the team, referencing his ability to adjust. I agree with that concern, and I would take it further. Depending on the replacement and other staff losses, I don’t see how we can assume that a modified defensive staff can get the same level of performance out of a drastically under resourced defensive roster outside of the safety group. I would expect a dropoff, maybe a significant dropoff.
Agree with Andy that Salyer is a lock on the question about priority for injured players returning. It seems obvious that he is their best option at LT by a large margin.
Also agree that I would prioritize Fisk next, though Vidal is close; his blocking is missed. The biggest reason to choose Vidal is if Hampton cannot take a bellcow role, or, worse, gets injured. Vidal has been much better than their other options. So I could see Vidal over Fisk.
I love Herbert as much as anyone, but he’s not legitimately in the MVP conversation this year. I posted about it in your previous podcast thread.
Agree with Al that I trust the coaches on resting players this week. I am surprised that is Harbaugh’s decision.
Also agree with Al about preferring to go to NE vs. the other choices. It’s a nobrainer in the sense that their pass rush is not great, unlike JAX and HOU. I don’t think the fact the Chargers beat the Patriots last year matters at all. They have Vrabel now, and they are clearly a completely different team, similar to the Chargers transition from Staley to Harbaugh. But the pass rush is the clincher for me.
Not sure why Andy thinks the wheels have been coming off for NE, though. They have averaged ~34 ppg over the past 3 games since their bye. The Chargers defense would certainly face a challenge there.
Looking forward to watching some of the reserves come out and beat Denver.
Another good comment, Brian! It’s a significant time and effort commitment for you to sit there listening carefully and writing down your thoughts in response each week and it doesn’t go unnoticed. We greatly appreciate it.
On the blown coverages, I did read Popper’s insights and Kris Rhim (from ESPN) said similar in relation to the first blown coverage, in response to one of our tweets that he engaged with: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2005398674973888954.
We haven’t seen multiple instances of failed execution/communication in a single game since the Staley era. I’m confident that it won’t happen again.
On Bobby Hart’s usage, I imagine the reasoning pathway from the coaches was something like: “We think Hart and Pipkins are both better than Deculus based on recent playing form, so let’s switch Bobby over to a position he’s played before, and make it work”.
Obviously it didn’t work out. I generally support their endeavour to brainstorm and problem solve to find the best possible OL combination: here, by constructing a brand new combination. Credit also for making the call to switch back during the game (third quarter, I think) when it wasn’t working. But, ultimately it’s still a missed evaluation of your own players, so I get why this one seems a baffling decision. I’ve been more impressed by Bobby Hart’s play at RT than Deculus’ at LT during the season on the All-22, so I kiiiinda get why they tried it. Maybe though…against the Texans D Front was not the right time to try it.
On Roman, as Jack likes to say ‘you are preaching to the converted‘.
On playing the Texans again. No doubt this was a game riddled with “own goals” (to borrow a phrase from a different sport) and it was very winnable. I guess I put my own question to Andy back to you: Would you be confident that the outcome would be different the next time we played them?
I’d be hopeful, but not confident. I’d rather not face them again until the OL is revamped.
On potentially returning to New England, I agree that the teams are different and the more relevant factor is the present construction of the teams (strengths and weaknesses, etc) but I disagree that it doesn’t ‘matter at all‘.
We know that excelling in sports takes psychological skill as well as physical skill. Personally, I like the thought that when Drake Maye walks up to the line of scrimmage to take the first snap in his first ever playoff game and the eyes of the world on him, he’ll look across from the line of scrimmage and see mostly the same personnel (and DC) that held him to 12/22, 117 yds, TD only last season in a 40-7 beatdown. That’s got to be at least something that comes to his mind mind during his weekly preparation. Now, of course, there’s no guarantee this negatively affects his performance. It could be the opposite and this guy is a Tom Brady-level competitor and it wills him to play even better.
But aren’t you the one, Tau, who’s the real North Carolina Non-Believer?! This is your moment to buy into the pre-game psychological warfare and frailty of that school’s former star QB 😉
Enjoy the Denver game (if that’s even possible…)!
Thanks. I feel like I am having a conversation with and by extension with Andy and Jack. It is a cool experience that I cannot easily have with the hosts of other podcasts I like. (I don’t really have time for Twitter/X.) I really appreciate that you always take the time to respond to me thoughtfully.
I think this is probably the core of this issue.
I agree with your assessment. I could tell you that I am more hopeful now than I would have been the week after last year’s Texans loss.
The way I see it:
– Maye has a year plus under his belt since that loss… and it isn’t just one year, it is a first full NFL offseason and a second full NFL season, which is more impactful than, say, adding a 4th or 5th season.
– He has Vrabel and an entirely new coaching staff. Vrabel is multiple orders of magnitude better than Mayo, and OC McDaniels is multiple orders of magnitude better than last year’s OC Van Pelt. It’s not close here.
– Maye is leading the NFL in completion percentage AND YPA, not a typical combo. Which of course means he is leading the NFL in passer rating. He is playing much better than he was last season when he faced the Chargers, and I’m sure his confidence level is through the roof.
– He also now has rookie C Wilson, rookie RB Henderson, and vet WR Diggs, all upgrades from last season, though I don’t think this is as impactful as the other points above.
Does that mean Pats win in this matchup if it happens? No, definitely not. I just don’t see last year’s loss having any material effect on that probability. I respect your opinion about it, though… I recognize that I am a pretty unemotional and logical thinker (former software engineer), and I can be insensitive to emotional/psychological factors.
You’re right, I am. But it already appears that Maye might be the second best UNC player ever at the NFL level (after Lawrence Taylor, obviously, and Julius Peppers also deserves a mention).
I definitely think the Chargers could win at NE week after next if that is the matchup, and, as I mentioned, I would favor that matchup over others besides Pittsburgh/Baltimore, but I don’t think there is any realistic chance of the latter happening.
Regardless, I look forward to week 19, whatever the matchup.
And a link to our Tweet about an article written by Cody Alexander yday (from MatchQuarters) breaking down Minter’s Defensive Scheme and what the analytics says about it this season:
Our All 22 Clips from the Houston game posted to X
Clip 1:
Clip 2:
Clip 3:
Clip 4:
Clip 5:
Clip 6: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2005446432539676718
Clip 7: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2005447537084563661
Clip 8: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2005520371769110962
Clip 9: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2005529252410892539
Clip 10: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2005531710839222726
Clip 11: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2005439573145661712
Clip 12: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2005573355785818414
Clip 13: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2005584121217929368