We’ve just released Episode 84 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis for Episode 84 is below:
The Bolts showed more signs of life on Offense in Wk 2 of the Preseason but fell short 13-9 to the Rams at SoFi Stadium. Was it a case of Stick, Stank, Stunk? Will Herbert’s return to practice soothe all wounds? Join us today as we discuss it all. Don’t miss it!
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Alister (@TDU_Alister)
Long time team fan, podcaster (with Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast), husband to a beautiful wife, friend to all fellow Chargers fanatics, and father-to-be!
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In my matrix, all 1st team All Pros are not created equal. I don’t think that is particularly controversial… we’re not talking about cutting/trading Slater or Derwin… 1st team All Pro for any offensive player or any defensive player >>>>>> 1st team All Pro for any special teams player.
To put it another way, if the best punt returner makes virtually no impact (approximately +5.4 yards per game above average in punt return yards), why is it worth dedicating a roster spot to a player solely for that role? My argument is that it doesn’t. Davis isn’t Devin Hester.
As I have posted before, I think this is a bit of a Moneyball-like inefficiency… that some teams overvalue returners in today’s game. The Chargers should not be one of them and would be smart to take advantage of that and trade him for a pick.
I’m just repeating myself at this point, so I’ll stop on Davis. However, on this:
Well, suppose Davis was kept instead of Morris-Brash, as an example. How does that affect locker room culture? Dude has played great so far. Has Davis earned a roster spot over him? That’s just one example.
@tau837
KevDiego ‘s post). Eight yards better than average is huge; the difference between going for a touchdown and having to settle on a field goal, or kicking a field goal and punting the ball away. And, what good does a WR6 or DL6 sitting on the bench or being inactive on game day if he cannot contribute at all while a player like Davis could affect the outcome of the game?
Can’t believe we still have this conversation, but this is my last on the subject. By the way, Davis had 16 yards average (~8 yards /game above average) punt return (stats from
I had mentioned already how Roman’s offense can utilize Davis’ uniqueness in the flanks, in screen situations, and the sweeps. We just saw that against the Cowboys yesterday. With how this new offensive scheme works with improved run blocking particularly TE blocking, Davis can put the scare on opponents. Even if he does not touch the ball, a WR can be open for a big play.
The Chargers had 385 punt return yards last season.
The average team had 292.4.
That means the Chargers had 92.6 more punt return yards than the average team. That is 5.45 yards per game.
The Chargers had 390 kickoff return yards last season.
The average team had 422.8.
That means the Chargers had 32.8 fewer kickoff return yards than the average team. That is -1.93 yards per game.
That is a net of +59.8 combined return yards above the average team… about 3.52 yards per game.
Every punt and all but 1 kickoff returned by the Chargers were returned by Davis.
I don’t find that impressive, nor worth a roster spot. I understand that you do believe he is worth a roster spot, and that’s fine. I respect your opinion. I have recognized from the start that I am very much in the minority, maybe on an island, on this.
FWIW, I agree with you in principle. Two nuances:
If Johnson or Rice lit the pre-season on fire, then I think there would be more energy behind this idea. I’ve heard that Rice looks good in practice with Herb throwing him the ball, so maybe that’s enough for him to make the team?
@tau837
Tau. I respect your opinion as well. It’s just that we see it differently. For the point of argument on a player’s performance, I don’t think this is the correct number breakdown for it. These team stats do not reflect individual player’s performance as they do not tell us the number of punt and kick-off returns, the number of yards per return, and who returned kicks. Davis’ kick return average is the more applicable stats for the argument.
By using these stats in your argument:
Chargers = 385 total punt return yards
NFL team average = 292.4 total punt return yards
**Some teams had more or fewer number of punt returns, which why these stats don’t work for Davis’s argument
With Davis at 16 yds per punt return average: 385/16 = 24 return attempts
NFL teams: 292.4/8.3 = 35 average number of punt return attempts
What this tells me: The Chargers had far fewer punt return opportunities in 2023 than most teams. Make sense bc the defense couldn’t stop anyone from scoring in 2023. Even with fewer return attempts by Davis at almost 10 less opportunities, his return yardage was enormous. With a better defense this season, we should expect more punt return attempts, therefore, Davis offers even more values in addition to what he’ll contribute in the offense.
This is incorrect. I’ve posted all of this data before. Davis had 29 fair catches on punts, which was second in the league to Gipson (NYJ), who had 30.
If you combine punt returns with punt return fair catches, Davis tied for 3rd highest total in the league (53). Yet, he totaled 5.45 more punt return yards per game than the average team. He scored a TD but he also had 2 muffs and a lost fumble.
We clearly will not agree on this, and that’s fine, but you don’t have to try to estimate things like how many punt return opportunities Davis had; it is all there and readily available for you at various sites. He was among league leaders in opportunities.
Return opportunity does not mean fair catches on punts, those are not returnable – different stats for punters
Davis’ punt return average is 16 yards/attempt with 24 number of return attempts. There were only 3 other teams with less number of punt return attempts (Broncos, Bears & Cowboys).
“he totaled 5.45 more punt return yards per game than the average team." We don’t see eye-to-eye on this data manipulation of yours. I don’t see it being relevant while we’re looking at a player return skills and ability. There are only 3 other teams with better punt return total yards than the Chargers. The two teams (Eagles & Ravens) at the top both had 417 yards at 29 attempts. At (417-292)(1/17) = 7.35/game for the Eagles and Ravens; are you saying that it’s also a poor production for them being it’s only 7.35 yds/game and only 2 yds/game more than 5.45 for the Chargers? This isn’t a good matrix to use for a player’s return skills analysis.
Go ahead and have the last word on this. Nothing against you, I respect your opinion. We agree to disagree. Thanks for the exchanges.
@tui1hit
Just because you don’t like the facts I posted does not mean it was “data manipulation." I’m done with this conversation.
I think one potential area of disconnect is Tui is quite focussed on Derius’ invidividual return abilities, whereas you are pointing out how much surplus value that really brings from a team perspective. Both things can be true.
I think one obvious unknown with the Derius Davis evaluation is the effect of the new kickoff return rules. If you are right Tau, and DD is an average to below average kick returner, it’s not going to move the dial. But if Ryan (and some others) are correct in thinking the new rules actually favour a one-cut speedy runner like DD, then with all the extra return opportunities he’ll get this year, DD should be well-positioned to make us regret ever debating his spot on the roster.
@tau837
Same here, Tau. Much respect and appreciation for you, man. We had our disagreements at times but we agree on most, at least from my end on yours. I don’t care either as long as we win, either with or w/out DD on the roster.
Thanks
Spanos Must Go
By no means am I saying I think it WILL happen, but I have the exact opposite take on Harbaugh (and Hortiz) here.
This seems like something almost no head coach or GM other than those who are the most strong-willed and confident in their approach to team building would do, especially in their first season remaking a roster.
Certainly Telesco would never do it. Staley would never do it. McCoy would never do it. Lynn probably would never do it if only due to his strong loyalty to his players… but Harbaugh has no loyalty to Davis.
Would Belichick do it? I think so, if circumstances warranted. Tomlin? I think so. Andy Reid? I think so.
Etc.
It might be different if Davis was a really strong leader in the locker room, but I have no indication of that.
Again, I have been on the record for a while now saying that I think it SHOULD happen but DO NOT think it WILL happen. Still feel that way.
However, for me, Harbaugh is also “old school" in a couple of ways:
His philosophical approach to Offense (running the ball at higher rates than analytics types would say is sensible)
Obsession with the Offensive Line (again, for a while the analytics types would side with Chase in the Chase/Sewell debate from a team-building perspective, saying it leads to more points on Offense)
So the gap we’re trying to fill here is how would Harbaugh respond to the idea of cutting/trading an All Pro player entering his second year who he was not involved in drafting. Cutting that player would be an “outside the box" approach to roster-building. I think I would bet on Harbaugh approaching this question in an ‘old school’ way and being an All-Pro would carry weight with him.
And if you’re saying you don’t think it will happen either, then I’m not quite sure what you’re trying to say here. Maybe that you think he would be ‘open to it’ if the circumstances were right, even if he doesn’t actually go ahead with it. And I think I’d probably agree with that. That said, actions tend to speak louder than words. Derius Davis has had a poor pre-season. His trade value should be decently high. There are replacement candidates to return punts on the roster. If this is a Harbaugh-type thing to do, then he should do it! And if he doesn’t, then it’s probably not a Harbaugh-type thing to do!
They have no ties to Davis
Davis is not known to be a leader in the locker room
They are in their first year of remaking the roster, the most likely time to cut or trade a prior year All Pro
While in some ways “old school" in thinking, I don’t think they are locked in to an outdated vision of what their best 2024 roster looks like… this involves:
Impact of the player in his role… how substantial?
Potential replacement value that will already make the final roster due to other role/positional value
Opportunity cost of keeping the player, both on 53 man (e.g., cutting 6th IDL, 5th Edge, 6th (other than Davis) WR, etc.) and on gameday active roster (no point in keeping a limited specialist to have him inactive)
If they keep him, I can only assume they think the calculus of those last 3 points is net positive. I don’t think that, but they obviously know a lot more than I do.
I certainly do not think they would keep him solely because he was a 1st team All Pro last season, which is how I read your statement.
I think in your matrix his All Pro status would sit under the “impact of the player" evaluation.
I think somewhere in the matrix setting the locker-room culture also has to be a feature, and I think Harbaugh would have to assess that before cutting or trading a guy who made the All Pro last year.
When Harbaugh is preaching to his team that “competitors are always welcome", how would the team respond to a player who competed at an All Pro level as a rookie being moved on for, essentially, strategic reasons. Is that reconcilable? I think with some mental gymnastics you could reconcile it, but might some players find it contradictory messaging?
I think if they balance those scales they would land on keeping him. Privately, I wonder if they have even bothered to balance those scales very much. Possibly an academic discussion that they have barely considered internally.
On the question of whether or not trading Davis would be reconcilable with Harbaugh’s message, I don’t think it would be difficult at all. They are going to take the best 53. If Davis isn’t one of them, he doesn’t make it, period. That is consistent with the message. Further, Hortiz has made it clear that he will never stop doing whatever he can to improve the team… if trading Davis does that, again, that is consistent.
I don’t think any of that is “mental gymnastics." Harbaugh could easily just say that Davis was not one of the best 6 WRs in camp/preseason, which is obviously true, and simply state that there is no room on the roster for a player who does nothing but returns. He would presumably say something like, we had really high hopes for his development in the passing game, and he worked hard, but we just had too many other guys who were better in that area, including run blocking… etc. Easy case to make, because it’s all true.
Yes, probably academic. Most likely, if Ficken wants him, he gets him. And I assume he wants him.
I knew there was a reason I picked this podcast to listen to before the regular season – Jack back with his teachable moment!!! Well done. Really enjoyed the show during an unexpected hour plus long SoCal commute.
I have watched no preseason games or paid much attention this offseason except reading the articles and comments on Stormcloud so I have to say your show to my surprise gave me even more hope than I already had (I am huge Harbaugh fan) for the coming season. Consistent weak spots on this team are being addressed-run defense, O line depth, CB depth.
Keep up the good work. I am looking forward to listening to the show regularly as we head into the regular season.
One final thought. I’ve always liked the show you guys are definitely entertaining but it struck me that the depth of analysis has taken a big leap since I first started listening what two years ago? It is a testament to the investment you have been making to learn the finer points of the game. I think I have watched probably 2,000 plus NFL games over the years and you guys understand the game much better than I do at this point.
We strive to learn more about the sport each season. The depth of it all is magnificent. I find myself in rabbit holes pretty frequently sifting through old playbooks available online and trying to improve my X & Os knowledge. I suspect I’ll have a little less time for that from November when my first child arrives, so I’m making the most of the opportunity now!
Looking forward to reading your comments all throughout the season. It’s certainly an exciting time to be a fan.
@kevdiego
I can’t think of a team that would clear room in its 53-man roster for Spiller. He’s slow thru the hole with lack of explosiveness to his game. Against Henley, Niemann, and Dye in practice he couldn’t shake them off to get open. Spiller is definitely no Natrone Means. Means was bigger, faster, explosive and powerful. Right away as a rookie, Means was going to be a star. Can’t say that about Spiller who hasn’t shown us anything yet and still trying to make the team in his 3rd season.
Fehoko or Rice? I believe Fehoko has done enough to make the team who have outplayed Rice in both practices and preseason games, plus Fehoko’s role in special teams. For a team to claim Rice thru waivers would be based mostly on potential. It would be a very tough decision on the coaches to make. I don’t think either one of them would clear waivers.
Jaimes’ lack of strength really showed up in the two preseason games. Against the Seahawks Bryon Murphy consistently planted Jaimes’ ass on the turf behind the LOS, and he wasn’t any better against the Rams either. The center position is still a big question mark to me and that week 1 against the Raiders is at the gate already.
I agree Tart looked impressive. With Bosa off and on with injury, I tend to believe they keep 5 OLB’s w/ Mack, Bosa, Tuli, Bud, and Tre’mont and 5 IDL w/ Fox, Poona, Tart, Otito & Matlock. I prefer for Clark to make it than Matlock who I’m not sold on. Clark can jam and drive the guards of which Minter’s IDL like to do. Matlock lacks in size and strength to do.
@tui1hit
I do not think Spiller is Natrone Means. What I noticed is that he has the same quick feet Means had. What Spiller needs is more decisiveness. He stops and chops his feet, losing momentum. If he can just keep moving forward, he could be an effective back. I do not have confidence that Dobbins will remain healthy all season. I think the Chargers need Vidal and an effective Spiller in 2024. I hope they find a way to keep both.
Fehoko is 26 and entering his 4th NFL season. He’s bounced around as a bottom of the roster/PS player during his entire career. He was on the roster a bit last year, caught 1 pass for 9 yards (and a TD!) but was pretty clearly outplayed by Alex Erickson, who I think is now an insurance salesman. Fehoko has looked good this pre-season, but so did Michael Bandy a few years back. I’m pretty confident Simi would make it through waivers.
I know I’ve told this story before: I was at the 2022 Falcon game. I have a friend with field-level box seats immediately behind the visitor’s bench. Our seats were `20 feet behind the Chargers bench. When the offense came off the field, the starting OL huddled with the coaches to look at film. While the other non-starters (Will Clapp, Sarell, Bailey) sat on the bench fucking around, Jaimes sat with the starters, looked at the film and kept his mind in the game. It impressed me. During his playing time in 2023, I thought Jaimes was OK in his actual play, but was much better than Clapp at communicating protections. I do agree with you about his lack of strength being a weakness. Not sure if center is the right position for a dude that played tackle exclusively in college. So, I mostly agree with you and would not mind a FA not named Clapp to replace Jaimes. If Jaimes sticks around, I hope he spends lots of time with Ben Herbert
Matlock has the same issue Jaimes does. There was a goal-line rep this preseason where Matlock got forklifted out of the back of the end zone. The dude is just not strong enough to play interior DL in the NFL.
@kevdiego
Bandy? Bandy was a 5′-9″ 190 lbs 4.6 – 40 speed receiver vs Fehoko at 6′-4″ 225 lbs (4.4 speed). One big difference this time for Fehoko is in a Roman’s offense, Simi now gets to play how he was used in college by playing more at the “Z" spot and at the slot, an advantage with his size and speed. We’ve seen him now get open consistently from the slant, curl, and dig routes in the middle. He has shown better separation than Rice. I love for Rice to make this team, everyone is enamored by a story, but he has to prove he belongs, not because his father is Jerry Rice. By the way, Fehoko was only with one team, the Cowboys for 2 seasons who drafted him in the 5th rd before he was picked up last year by the Chargers. Kellen Moore played Simi mostly at the “X" of which I’m convinced held him back. His ability to play both X, slot and Z is crucial as a backup that can step in at either spot. “Competitors are welcomed", I believe Simi has shown that to Jim Harbaugh already who has said that Simi has separated himself from the others. Not only that, Jim puts a strong emphasis on ST. Rice does not contribute in that department.
Thanks for the game story on Jaimes. I tend to think is how he anchors himself especially being 6′-5″ and only 300 lbs at the heaviest. Linsley and Hardwick were both a little heavier at 6′-3″. He seems to play a little too tall, too. I don’t know much about OL but it could be hand technique. But all I’m hoping for, they sign someone with proven experience at center before the season starts.
Matlock has a great motor but it is all he’s got. Clark has really stood out in the preseason games. When he is in, he looks good against double teaming and held his ground. Him and Tart together were impressive; they walled up the middle quite well.
I saw Matlock make a few good blocks at FB. It would be funny if he made the roster as a FB rather than DL. I do think that flexibility will add to his value. I do think we’re both in agreement that he’s not currently a solution on the DL
I was watching the Cowboy game and had a thought: The Chargers are going to cut a DB an edge and MAYBE RB that’s going to get snapped up by another team. I don’t see a world where an OL or DL player cut by the Chargers is going to make another team’s roster. The Chargers have MAYBE 7 offensive linemen that are NFL-caliber: Slater, Salyer, Johnson, Bozeman, Alt, Pipkins (and maybe McFadden). Jaimes is average-to-below-average. The rest are PS players at best.
Some responses:
I don’t think Perez is anything more than a fun training camp story. Grew up rooting for the Chargers. Stepped in at short notice and made a couple of nice completions. Very happy that he’s given us some content to discuss, but he’s unathletic, an older player, and the upside just isn’t there to warrant any future investment (at least, in my opinion).
Interesting take from you on Spiller. I can see what you mean. When he’s been targeted in the passing game, he’s looked comfortable catching the football and has moved decently upfield. He’s also adequate in pass protection. But I can’t look past how little acceleration he possesses and, when the primary duty of the RB is to run the ball, I think it’s a problem to carry a RB who’s not good at running the ball 😆 I would cut him.
I know the Derius Davis conversation has been another fun offseason topic. Would the team really cut/trade Davis but keep Gill? I’d be pissed off if they did that. It would be replacing one return specialist with limited receiving skills for another. If they cut Davis, in my opinion it should be so they can carry an extra player at a position of need, and then let Still/McConkey/someone else who was already going to make the team, return the ball. I was unimpressed by the handful of routes Derius Davis ran on the weekend. He wasn’t clean out of his breaks. However, I still don’t think they will cut him. Doesn’t seem like a Harbaugh thing to do to cut or trade a player who made the All Pro (in some capacity) as a rookie NFL player. Competitors welcome and all that jazz.
Jaimes, to my eye, has been one of the bigger disappointments of the two preseason games. We heard all through camp how he’d improved. In the games though, at least from my vantage point, I’ve seen a player who can’t be relied on at NFL level. In the run game, he lacks the strength to displace defenders. With McFadden, he almost gave up a safety last week backed up in our RZ. In the passing game, he will get blown up at least one snap per drive. He’s just not strong enough to survive against NFL interior DL. It might be controversial, but I would cut him and look to post-cut waivers for someone from another team who has experience as a back-up Center at NFL level. But anyway, I agree generally that the OL depth is still a bit of a problem.
Glad you enjoyed the jokes! 🙂
Interesting comment on Spiller. My impression is that he has the speed/acceleration (he broke a long TD last pre-season which I think was called back due to a holding penalty). To my eye, it looks more like he chops his feet too often and looses momentum. Vidal is the exact opposite, lowering and slithering (which is the word you accurately used) forward. If Spiller can turn his choppy feet into nimble feet (like Natrone Means), then he may be something.
My Davis/Gill comment did not mean Gill replaces Davis. Other skill players (like McConkey) would replace him and Gill would be the PS stash backup.
I agree that Jamis’ weakness is, his weakness 😉 I just thought that his other intangibles helped compensate. I may go watch some more all-22 and focus on him.
@alisterlloyd
Similar to the “tread on the tires" phrase, I think we’ve flogged this horse to death. My point was and is that each draft pick has value. Choosing to utilize a pick on a player that has zero chance of making a contribution is a bad decision. You can make bad decisions and occasionally have good outcomes. You can make good decisions and occasionally have bad outcomes. However, if you consistently make good decisions, you are much more likely to have good outcomes.
I thought the Rice and C Johnson picks were good decisions. Picking players with NFL-level upside is a good decision. They may or may not work out, but the decision to draft them was sound. Max Duggan could have injected some magic elixir into his arm giving him NFL-level arm talent, creating a decent NFL backup. That, however, is highly unlikely, which makes drafting Max a bad decision which now, predictably, resulted in a bad outcome.
Listened during a great morning of “feeling like Fall while still Summer" golf. A few comments:
Offense:
Backup QBs:
Not sure what’s up with Stick, but the dude looks much worse than last year. I went back and watched some all-22 of his games last year. His footwork, decisiveness and ball security was much better in 2023. I think the 2024 Chargers can win games with 2023 Stick. Much less confident in the dude I’ve watched in 2 games this year
I’m curious to see what happens with Perez. Dude is 29 (a year older than Stick). I love his leadership and decisiveness, but his weak arm and limited athleticism does not make him a great developmental project. I think they brought him in to play camp arm and give them a reason to get rid of Duggan
Speaking of Duggan – Vaya con dios. As I said at the time, I hate wasting any draft picks and this was quite obviously a wasted pick.
I agree that the #2 QB in 2024 may not be on the roster
RBs:
Agree that Vidal looked great. Reminded me of Maurice Jones-Drew. I think he’s clearly RB#3 (and I’m comfortable with him ascending to RB1
I thought Spiller looked good in limited reps. Great catch & run. Reminds me a bit of Natrone Means. I hope the Chargers find a way to keep him as I think they’ll need him this year & don’t think he’ll clear waivers.
I think Patterson & Dotson clear waivers and land on the PS. I also think both will have meaningful carries in 2024
WRs:
Interesting decisions to make on the bottom end of the roster. I think there’s a very good chance that whoever they cut does not clear waivers.
Fehoko has looked great in game situations, but I think the Chargers keep Rice over Fehoko as Semi is more likely to clear waivers.
I thought Jaelen Gill has looked good as a returner. He’ll definitely clear waivers. With Gill on the PS, does that put Davis on the roster bubble?
OL:
Agree with most of the comments.
I did think that Jaimes has played decent C. His lack of strength will always be a liability, but he’s smart, works hard & moves well.
The fact that we’re talking about Foster Sarell making the team shows that, behind Salyer, the depth is shit.
Defense:
I thought Dean Leonard looked like the best player on the field.
Every LB looked great.
This coaching staff… Whew. It’s such a breath of fresh air. Any loss in 2024 will be on the players as this coaching staff will give the Chargers an advantage in every game they play. Very excited to see this defense play meaningful games.
Tart looked amazing. If Hortiz can build a solid interior DL to go along with what looks like a strong LB/DB & elite edge group, this defense could be top-5.
Again, great podcast. The jokes make my fucked-up golf game less painful… 🙂