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2026 NFL Draft · First Round · Pick 22

Akheem Mesidor:
Mack’s Successor Identified

The Answer The Offseason Pointed Toward

Akheem Mesidor is the newest member of the Los Angeles Chargers, and he is the answer to a question this roster has been carrying since March. With the 22nd pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, Joe Hortiz selected the Miami EDGE rusher to serve as the long-term complement to Tuli Tuipulotu and the eventual successor to Khalil Mack. The pick was not a reach, not a surprise, and not a trade-up. It was the logical conclusion to an offseason that had been pointing here the entire time.

The setup was obvious once you mapped the chess board. Mack returned on a 1-year, $18,000,000 deal, which means the Chargers are paying top-of-market money for a 34-year-old edge rusher with no future beyond 2026 attached. Odafe Oweh, who had been part of the three-man rotation that carried the 2025 pass rush, walked to Washington on a 4-year, $100,000,000 contract the Chargers were never going to match. That left the EDGE room thin behind Mack and Tuipulotu, with Bud Dupree as a stopgap and Kyle Kennard a year away from meaningful snaps. The math demanded a first-round solution. Hortiz delivered one.

Mesidor walks into a position room that offers both immediate work and a defined developmental runway. That is rare. Most first-round rookies either get thrown into the deep end because the depth chart is barren, or they get buried behind veterans whose scheme does not know how to deploy them. Mesidor has neither problem. Mack is still the starter. Tuipulotu is still the long-term foundation. Mesidor is the third edge in the rotation, and he has one full season to learn the craft from one of the most technically refined pass rushers of the last decade before the keys get handed to him.

Salary Cap
Efficient
~$3.8M Y1 cap hit on a 4-year, fully guaranteed rookie deal plus a fifth-year team option. Starter-caliber production at rookie-deal prices.
Comp Picks
Preserved
Drafted players are formula-invisible. The Chargers still project to receive a third-round comp pick in 2027 for losing Oweh.
Succession
Solved
One year behind Mack to absorb his craft. Year two stepping into starter-level snaps next to Tuipulotu. The depth chart has a plan.

What The Grades Actually Say

The case for Mesidor is built on the table below. Read it carefully.

Akheem Mesidor — Career Grade Progression (PFF)
Season Team Snaps DEF RDEF TACK PRSH COV
2025 Miami 648 92.5 90.5 61.4 91.7 66.5
2024 Miami 481 75.2 74.2 70.6 72.8 56.5
2023 Miami 447 66.6 79.3 77.5 65.8 60.4
2022 Miami 396 87.1 86.5 75.9 80.7 62.4
2021 West Virginia 553 70.7 64.6 65.8 75.0 73.0
2020 West Virginia 215 75.0 71.9 63.7 71.6 61.2
Source: PFF college grades, 2020-2025. DEF = overall defensive grade · RDEF = run defense · TACK = tackling · PRSH = pass rush · COV = coverage. 2025 row highlighted as the breakout season.

Career counting numbers across 2,337 total snaps: 32 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, 105 hurries, and 153 total pressures.

Mesidor — Career Totals (2020-2025)
Snaps Sacks QB Hits Hurries Total Pressures
2,337 32 16 105 153
Source: PFF career totals.

The 2025 season at Miami is the headline. A 92.5 overall defensive grade and a 91.7 pass-rush grade on 648 snaps is first-round production anywhere in the country. Those are high-level marks in ACC competition, backed by the snap volume to validate the sample. That is not a player who flashed for a month. That is a player who sustained top-tier production for a full season as his team’s primary pass rusher.

The concern with a single-year breakout is always whether the production is real or a small-sample fluke that regresses once defenses adjust. The 2022 season answers that question. On 396 snaps as a sophomore at Miami, Mesidor posted an 87.1 overall defensive grade and an 80.7 pass-rush grade. That was the flash year, and it predates the 2025 breakout by three full seasons. The tools were visible early. What changed in 2025 was consistency, volume, and refinement.

The 2024 season sits at 75.2 overall and serves as the floor. An above-average Power-conference edge defender on 481 snaps. Not dominant, but not a liability. If Mesidor’s rookie-year NFL production looks like his 2024 college tape, that is still an NFL contributor. If it looks like his 2025 tape, Hortiz got starter-caliber production on a rookie contract, which is the best possible outcome in the first round. The range of outcomes skews favorably.

A Profile That Matches What We’ve Paid For

Ryan will have a full breakdown of how Mesidor’s hand usage, get-off, and counter package translate to Chris O’Leary’s defense. That is his lane. Mine is the business-of-football version: this is a player whose profile fits what the Chargers have paid for on this side of the ball.

O’Leary’s defense asks its edge rushers to set the edge against the run on base downs and win one-on-one matchups as pass rushers on obvious passing downs. Mesidor’s 2025 grades reflect both: a 90.5 run-defense grade and a 91.7 pass-rush grade. That is not a designated third-down rusher who needs to be schemed off the field on first-and-10. That is an every-down edge. Which matters, because the Chargers do not have the depth behind their top two to run two-platoon systems by situation.

The rotation value is also real. Three-man edge rotations are the baseline for elite defenses in 2026. The Chargers had that in 2025 with Mack, Tuipulotu, and Oweh. They lost it the moment Oweh signed in Washington. Mesidor rebuilds it.

The Cap, The Comp Pick, And What This Pick Closes

A pick at 22 in 2026 comes with a 4-year rookie deal, fully guaranteed, plus a fifth-year team option. Per Over the Cap’s rookie pool projections, Mesidor’s 2026 cap hit lands in the neighborhood of $3,800,000, scaling up modestly each year of the deal. The Chargers control him through 2030 if they exercise the fifth-year option. That contract is the fulcrum for everything else happening in this position group.

Consider the cap runway it creates. Mack is at $18,000,000 in 2026 with zero cap commitment in 2027. Tuipulotu is in a contract year at $6,211,979 after cashing in a hefty player-performance bonus that rewarded his stellar early career. A Tuli extension is the next dominant piece on this side of the ball, and it needs to get done in time for him and Mesidor to grow together over the life of Mesidor’s rookie deal. Mesidor at $3,800,000 in 2026 gives the Chargers a starter-caliber edge rusher at rookie-deal prices through the window where they need to pay Tuipulotu long-term and replace Mack’s snaps. That is the entire point of drafting edge rushers in the first round. The rookie deal subsidizes the extension that keeps the pair together.

⚡ Comp Pick Ledger: Untouched

The comp pick math is the quiet win. Rather than retaining Oweh at $25,000,000 APY, the Chargers let him walk, refrained from signing his replacement in free agency, and now project to collect a third-round compensatory pick in the 2027 formula thanks to that disciplined approach. Cash out on Oweh’s price tag, draft the replacement on a rookie deal, collect the comp pick next spring.

The other implication is what this pick closes off. The post-draft veteran market always has names. Joey Bosa is unsigned and a theoretical homecoming candidate. Kyle Van Noy is available. There are always edge rushers on the wrong side of 30 available for prove-it money in May. None of them are coming here now. Mesidor is the edge investment. The 2026 rotation is Mack, Tuipulotu, Mesidor, with Kennard developing and Dupree as the veteran spell body. That is the group. The pattern holds.

Construction In 2026 And Beyond

A first-round edge rusher behind a 34-year-old veteran and a 24-year-old ascending starter is going to play in 2026. The question is how much. Expect Mesidor in the 35 to 45 percent defensive-snap range as a rookie. That is the standard playing-time projection for a first-round edge rusher on a team with two established starters ahead of him. He will rotate in on base downs to keep Mack fresh, take designated pass-rush reps on obvious passing downs, and play extended stretches whenever either starter needs a breather.

That is a healthy rookie workload for an every-down edge prospect. It is also exactly what the 2027 depth chart requires him to be ready for.

In 2027, Mack’s contract is done. Tuipulotu will either be on a new long-term extension or playing out his contract year. Mesidor will be entering year two of his rookie deal with a full year of NFL reps behind him and a full year of Mack’s daily tutelage on the craft of edge rushing. If the 2026 plan works, the 2027 starting edge pairing is Tuipulotu and Mesidor, with Kennard developing behind them and the 2027 comp pick from Oweh’s departure available to add another piece.

And do not write Mack out of that picture yet. This defense thrives with three rotating, productive edges, and you never say goodbye to a Khalil Mack who wants to keep playing for your team. If Mack holds up in 2026 and still wants to come back on another one-year prove-it in 2027, that is a door you leave open. Tuipulotu, Mesidor, and a returning Mack would be the ideal version of the 2027 rotation. The draft pick does not replace Mack. It makes the room deep enough that Mack’s return in 2027 becomes a luxury rather than a necessity.

What This Pick Tells Us About Hortiz

⚡ StormCloud Take

Year three. The pattern is unmistakable.

This is year three of Hortiz as general manager, and the pattern is clear. He does not reach for need. He does not pay premium free-agent money to cover positional holes he could solve with the draft. He identifies the long-term gap, absorbs short-term pain with veteran one-year deals to keep the position afloat, and then uses high draft capital to solve the underlying problem on a rookie contract. That is the Beyond Cap Space framework in action: roster value is not just about what you spend, it is about what you spend where and when.

Mesidor at 22 is that framework applied to the edge position. The short-term solution is Mack on a one-year prove-it. The long-term solution is a first-round rookie deal that covers the transition. The comp pick math runs in the background. The veteran market gets ignored. And the Chargers exit the first round with a player whose 2025 tape earns the slot and whose developmental runway is exactly what a first-rounder is supposed to look like.

What do you think, StormCloud? Is Mesidor the EDGE profile you wanted at 22, or were you holding out for one of the run-defense-first tackles? Let me know in the comments.

Data sources: Pro Football Focus (college grades 2020-2025, pass-rush and run-defense splits, pressure and sack totals for Mesidor’s Miami and West Virginia seasons). Over the Cap (Mack 2026 cap hit, Tuipulotu 2026 cap number inclusive of player-performance bonus, Oweh’s Washington contract terms, first-round rookie pool cap projections for pick 22, compensatory pick projections). Contract structures for first-round rookie deals reflect the standard 4-year, fully guaranteed agreement plus a fifth-year team option under the current CBA.

KD
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Kyle DeDiminicantanio
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Blue Beers
Blue Beers(@blue-beers)
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1 month ago

Possibly just bias, but I’m really starting to like the mid-round picks more and more.

Especially Brenen Thompson who is much more impressive than I initially realized. He’s not just a really fast small guy who beats guys on a straight line. His ability to track the ball in the air is top notch and he has really good ability to stop/start, pop out of breaks and decelerate at the right times too. He needs to put on some weight and will likely take some time to adapt to the NFL but I can’t wait to see what McDaniel can do with him.

The knock on Genesis is his tackling and this will obviously need to be cleaned up, but his instincts as a center fielder are really good and he can actually cover! Good compliment to the safety room as long as they can get him to clean up his missed tackles. He’s obviously going to be on the bottom of the depth chart, but as we’ve seen in recent years, they need all the safeties they can get.

Burke is a mauler and I think he will make Pipkins expendable at least by next season. I could see them bringing him in for short yardage snaps in Year 1. Ironically, he actually reminds me a little bit of Trevor Penning when he was coming out of college, except Penning was taken in the 1st round.

Barrett seems like he could be in the rotation as a space eater right away which would be solid for a Day 3 pick.

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
1 month ago

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
1 month ago

Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma(@buck-melanoma)
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1 month ago

So QJ’s 5th year option got exercised. Hope he makes a BIG leap in this new offense….that’s a lotta $$ for his production so far.

Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
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Reply to  Buck Melanoma
1 month ago

I wouldn’t have done that. I hope he has the kind of season that proves it was the right move.

Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma(@buck-melanoma)
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Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

Exactly.

Erick V
Erick V(@erick-v)
Member
Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

Hopefully he balls out enough in this new offense to either garner a second contract or to produce a comp pick. If MM can’t figure out a way to use him best to maximize his production, maybe it’s best if he moves on. We can always trade him also under the 5th yr option.

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
1 month ago

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
1 month ago

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
1 month ago

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
1 month ago

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
1 month ago

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

Blue Beers
Blue Beers(@blue-beers)
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Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

Popper summed it up perfectly. They went and grabbed Slaughter because McDaniel saw him as the best player to fit with doing what he wants to do. Hortiz’ blue star was probably more or less McDaniels’. The later round guys are more dart throws at lesser talented players that they think can work in this new system.

KevDiego
KevDiego(@kevdiego)
Member
1 month ago

Los Angeles Chargers

Grade: D

Here’s why: The Chargers didn’t do a great job addressing their needs in this draft and they’ll need Akheem Mesidor to be an impact pass rusher immediately to cover up some of their interior defensive line issues. Brenen Thompson has the speed to be a deep threat for Justin Herbert, but he’s seriously lacking size at 164 pounds. It’s hard to see this draft class having the immediate impact the Chargers were hoping for because they still have critical needs to fill along the defensive front.

Most interesting pick: Jake Slaughter, OL, Florida

Slaughter will likely be playing guard with the addition of free-agent center Tyler Biadasz, but he’s got the frame and athleticism to develop into a long-term starter if the Chargers can continue to develop the traits he has. The big thing with the Chargers’ offensive line will always be the ability to stay consistently healthy, but the starting five looks solid at the close of the draft.

Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
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1 month ago

 Kyle DeDiminicantanio The site is behaving strangely. When I click on Start a Storm, I get an error: “Sorry, you are not allowed to access this page.” I tried logging out and logging back in, but that didn’t work.

And, speaking of logging out, clicking on My Account just takes me to the site home page, not to my profile. The only way I could figure out to log out was to go into Chrome site settings and delete the cookie for the site, which forced me to log in again.

Is this just me for some reason, or are these known issues right now?

Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
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Reply to  Kyle DeDiminicantanio
1 month ago

Just did a quick check and looks like Start a Storm will work now. I’ll test it more fully when I have time. Thanks.

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
1 month ago

Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
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Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

I heard Monson and Palazzolo from Check the Mic talking about reaches in their podcast after day 2. They asserted that analysis performed by multiple sources (one was PFF, can’t remember the other) has showed that teams that reach on picks too far from consensus tend to miss on those picks.

They noted that of course there are exceptions that hit, but this is the general truth showed by the analysis. It wasn’t clear that there is a hard and fast threshold on what is “too far,” but I would expect +20 picks is enough to qualify. I suppose that could be mitigated in a draft with a largely flat talent dropoff for long stretches, and this draft’s reputation as being weaker than usual could support that possibility.

I hope Hortiz and staff are good at outasessing the consensus, since they made multiple apparent reach picks.

Duck07
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Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

Warren Sharp was pretty brutal on John Lynch and SF’s “reaches” and how frequently they do it so I wonder if they now have to remove SF from their study since they’ve become such an outlier, lol.

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

I’d love them to elaborate on data findings.
Like you said, is 20+ a reach? 30+? The greater the “reach” the slimmer the chance of hitting?
I’m guessing that Day 3 would have greater variance so I’m viewing Slaughter as the one true “reach” in this class. I would say that though, because I didn’t like his film all that much and that’s been confirmed for me on my re-watch.
Hopefully Hortiz and the coaching staff prove me wrong, but it seems to me he’s been drafted predominantly for character reasons and his football IQ. On-field I see plenty of issues.

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
1 month ago

Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
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Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

I don’t understand the Chargers approach to OL in the draft.

Entering the draft, I thought the team had set things up to have both a solid starting OL and good depth if they solved two needs: a starting LG and a backup C. I thought it looked like this:

LT – Slater, Pipkins, Penning
LG – TBD, Penning/Awosika
C – Biadasz, TBD
RG – Strange, Penning/Awosika, Pipkins
RT – Alt, Pipkins, Penning

I figured they would keep 9 OL on the final roster, ignoring injuries forcing them to keep 10 for some reason.

They signed all of these players as free agents except Alt and Slater, so all 7 of these players would seem to be locks for the final roster barring injuries.

So the team went out and drafted 4 OL:

2.31 (63) – IOL Slaughter
4.17 (117) – OT Burke
6.21 (202) – G Taylor
6.25 (206) – G Harkey

I suppose one can argue that the last two picks in the 200+ pick range don’t matter much, though it is worth noting that Hortiz drafted Vidal (pick 181) and Mickens (214) in the 6th round in his first two drafts. (And likely OL bust Taylor at 199.)

At this point, it seems most likely that the starting LG will be either Slaughter, Penning, or Awosika, with the other two being final roster depth players, along with Pipkins. If so, that leaves one more OL roster spot if the team keeps 9 OL players on the final roster.

Given Burke was a 4th rounder, I assume that last spot will be his, meaning both Taylors, Harkey, and Cleveland along with UDFA T World will all battle for practice squad spots. Kaltenberger and UDFA C Spomer will also battle for presumably one practice squad spot allocated to center.

This apparently sets the stage for Slaughter to be both starting LG, if he wins the competition, and backup C. So an injury to the starting LG would also take out the backup center. Probably not a big deal, but not typical roster construction. And if Slaughter does not win the competition, the Chargers spent a 2nd round pick on a backup center in the same offseason as signing 28 year old Biadasz to a 3 year deal. Again, very curious choice. I hope Hortiz’s blue star has a strong track record.

It seems curious to do all of the trading back only to use the picks this way and virtually guarantee that at least two of the OL picks will not make the final roster in their first season.

Entering the draft, the general consensus was the first tier of positions the Chargers needed included Edge and LG, and those would be the first two draft picks. Check, though Slaughter was obviously a surprise. The next tier of needs was generally viewed as TE, CB, IDL, and maybe WR… or maybe WR was really in the third tier.

Surprisingly, the team did not address TE or CB. I realize they can sign a couple veterans at those positions, but I was expecting a primary reason for trading back twice to accumulate all of the extra picks was to enable the team to hit all of these positions.

Hortiz’s first two drafts look very strong as of today. They both looked stronger the day after the draft than this year’s draft looks right now. Foregoing a 3rd round pick will do that, though. Hortiz hit on several players on day 3 in his first two drafts. It remains to be seen if he did that again, but the odds don’t seem to be in his favor to repeat the same level of success, since it seems there is a good chance 2-3 of the day 3 rookies won’t make the final roster.

Last edited 1 month ago by Tau837
Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma(@buck-melanoma)
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Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

You went into more depth to say essentially what I did regarding the headscratching moves for Slaughter and later round picks. I also thought they’d address getting a true LG, hopefully a backup center with long term upside, and probably a CB or 2 in Day 3. I still expect a FA move at TE (Waller or Jonnu Smith). An offline convo I was having during the draft also reflected some of these same questions regarding how the IOL was addressed.

I like Slaughter. I’m skeptical of the mechanics of the pick and the role(s) he’ll be tasked to fill. And the later round picks, particularly Burke, highlight the IMO questionable contract given to Pipkins.

Good to see I’m not the only one questioning the tactics/process.

Last edited 1 month ago by Buck Melanoma
KevDiego
KevDiego(@kevdiego)
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Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

I just looked at contracts for the Chargers vet OL depth:

  • Pipkins: $4.5M dead cap hit if cut
  • Penning: $3.5M
  • Awosika: $300K
  • Cleveland: $0

So, the roster looks something like:

  • Starters: Slater, Slaughter, Biadasz, Strange, Alt
  • Backups: Penning, Pipkins, Burke
  • Battling for final roster spot: Awosika, Cleveland, Logan Taylor, Harkey, Branson Taylor

This means that, at minimum, 2 of the 3 late-round OL picks from 25 & 26 drafts are not making the team. Agree that this seems to be a flawed strategy. Flooding the room with late round picks that mathematically cannot all make the roster, especially when there are other holes in the roster, is a flawed strategy.

Erick V
Erick V(@erick-v)
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Reply to  KevDiego
1 month ago

I agree with Tau and all the sentiments here. As far as TE, they went flying off the board. Guys I thought were late day 3 guys went in Rd2, so I think they always had the idea of Waller or Smith in their back pocket especially with MM there. He has a relationship with them and they know the system. If TE didn’t work out in the draft, they have a plausible option or two there.

Agree 100% on the OL. I hope this is not a case where they force Slaughter to be the LG if he is not truly ready. If Penning or Awosika beat him out there is nothing wrong with starting the season continuing to learn the position. I don’t really give a damn who the starter is as long as he is effective. At worst we finally have a C of the future and a player that can step in and not have another season tank because of injuries.

I will say that while I was very happy that MM was hired as OC, it really seems he has way more pull in the organization than I ever thought he would have. Maybe this was a pre requisite to him taking the job? It sure seems like Hortiz took his asks into consideration during the draft and FA to get players he specifically wanted. I could see listening to his input, but I never expected this sort of involvement in adding starter level players and real contributors. It seems like Mitchell, Strange, Slaughter, Thompson, and Penning were guys he either wanted directly or gave his blessing on. As long as it works out, I guess it’s OK, but it just seems very curious.

Blue Beers
Blue Beers(@blue-beers)
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Reply to  KevDiego
1 month ago

This means that, at minimum, 2 of the 3 late-round OL picks from 25 & 26 drafts are not making the team. Agree that this seems to be a flawed strategy. Flooding the room with late round picks that mathematically cannot all make the roster, especially when there are other holes in the roster, is a flawed strategy.

I don’t really understand this comment. This is totally normal. The vast majority of late round picks do not stick on NFL rosters.

Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
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Reply to  Blue Beers
1 month ago

Chargers 6th round picks over the 10 drafts prior to the 2026 draft:

2025 – OL Branson Taylor – did not make final roster in rookie season, made practice squad2025 – S Mickens – on Chargers roster in rookie season and should have good shot to make it in second season, though drafting Smith will make that more challenging2024 – RB Vidal – on Chargers roster for rookie season, waived, but restored to active roster in second year and established what appears to be a solid roster position in third year2023 – IDL/FB Matlock – on Chargers roster for first 3 years of rookie contract, now on roster bubble for 4th year2022 – OL Salyer – on Chargers roster for full 4 year rookie contract2022 – CB Taylor – on Chargers roster for full 4 year rookie contract, traded midseason in 4th year2021 – LB Niemann – on Chargers roster for full 4 year rookie contract, signed to 1 year second contract with Chargers2021 – RB Rountree – on Chargers roster for first 2 years of rookie contract2020 – S Gilman – on Chargers roster for full 4 year rookie contract, signed to 2 year second contract with Chargers2019 – Edge Egbule – on Chargers roster for first 3 years of rookie contract2018 – WR Cantrell – never played a down in the NFL2017 – OL Tevi – on Chargers roster for full 4 year rookie contract2016 – FB Watt – on Chargers roster for full 4 year rookie contract2016 – P Kaser – on Chargers roster for first 3 years of rookie contractThat is 14 draft picks over a 10 draft sample. Only two (Cantrell and Branson Taylor) failed to make the final roster as a rookie, and all of the others except Mickens (jury’s out) contributed in multiple seasons.

In general, they weren’t great players, but they were 6th rounders.

It is fair to observe that Hortiz has built a deeper roster, which makes it harder for 6th round picks to make it, especially for a prolonged period of multiple seasons.

But it certainly has not been true for the Chargers that the vast majority of 6th round picks don’t stick, in fact it has been exactly the opposite. So there is reason to feel disappointed that the Chargers traded down to acquire more late picks and then seemingly used two of them on an overloaded position group, likely ensuring they will not contribute.

Last edited 1 month ago by Tau837
KevDiego
KevDiego(@kevdiego)
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Reply to  Blue Beers
1 month ago

Not sure I understand the point. You should expect ~half of your sixth round picks to make the team

From Google AI:

Key Roster Success Stats for 6th-Rounders

Initial Roster Chance: Approximately 50% of 6th-round picks earn a spot on the 53-man roster during their rookie year.

Starting Roles: The likelihood of a 6th-round pick becoming a regular starter is very low, estimated at only about 6% to 9% depending on the position.

Alternative Path: Many 6th-rounders who miss the active roster are signed to the practice squad, where they have about a 75% chance of remaining within the organization.

Blue Beers
Blue Beers(@blue-beers)
Member
Reply to  KevDiego
1 month ago

The 50% is just first year. Roughly 20% actually have careers beyond 3 – 4 years, and that 20% actually keeps dropping once you get to picks in the 200s (3rd round starts at 182). I was responding to your comment that 2 out of 3 from the last two years won’t stick. Yes that is pretty normal.

Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
Member
Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

I forgot to mention something about the potential dual role for Slaughter. If he is going to compete to start at LG, does that mean he gets all of his camp/preseason reps at LG and none at center, despite being the backup center?

To give him snaps at center could put him at a disadvantage for winning the starting job at LG, but to not give him snaps at center is creating a risk if Biadasz were to get hurt and Slaughter had to step in at center during the season, particularly since he would presumably need to make the line calls in that scenario.

This is presumably one reason teams don’t typically construct OL rosters this way.

Blue Beers
Blue Beers(@blue-beers)
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Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

Every year they cycle OL players through all the positions throughout camp though. This wouldn’t be unusual at all.

Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
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Reply to  Blue Beers
1 month ago

I don’t think there is much truth to this for the starters. For example:

The entrenched starters — Alt, Slater, Becton — did not practice at other positions last offseason.

Bozeman practiced some at guard but (a) had multiple full NFL seasons at guard in the past, including in Roman’s offense, and (b) had several full NFL seasons at guard. The reps weren’t critical for him at either position.

Zion practiced some at center until they abandoned that experiment. But he had 3 full seasons at NFL guard to fall back on, so the reps weren’t critical for him at guard.

In this case, reps are critical for Slaughter at whichever position he is expected to play. Moreso if they want him to have a legit chance at starting at LG, less so if he is primarily going to be a depth player.

Blue Beers
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Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

You’re right not the firmly entrenched starters, but all the rest of the depth guys are taking reps all over the line. This is a talking point in almost every camp, always preaching “versatility”. I would be shocked if he’s not taking reps at both spots, just like they’ll have guys like Pipkins and Penning taking reps at both tackle and G.

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

And to make things even murkier, Strange can play Center too! Their starting Guards might be the back-up Centers!

Last edited 1 month ago by TDU_Alister
Erick V
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Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

Agree 100% with this. I mentioned it in a conversation with Buck and Kyle. It’s not like he is an established vet OG who will take snaps at C during camp and the preseason to get comfortable there in case he is needed. Theoretically he will be immersed in OG snaps to LEARN the position. If Biadasz ever went down mid season it would be unreasonable and frankly unfair to expect Slaughter to slide over to C, even if it’s his natural position. Maybe they make one of the late rounders take a bulk of reps at C for depth?

Blue Beers
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Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

The later round players are probably UDFA in a lot of drafts. I view it as they knew this and decided to just take a bunch of swings knowing that a lot of those guys who were available in that range are destined to be cut anyways. If one out of the two 6th round guys sticks even as depth then that would be great and if not, then whatever. In a very unlikely scenario, If one of those guys just “fits” (a la former 6th rounder Trey Smith) and beats out Slaughter then that is a great problem to have.

Signing World was huge too, they need to try and keep him.

One thing about taking Burke and signing World now is that they have a good trade chip with Pipkins if some teams hit the midseason with desperate needs at one of their tackle spots.

KevDiego
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Reply to  Blue Beers
1 month ago

That is an interesting point that I didn’t think of. Making Pipkins available for trade is smart. If both Alt and Slater are ready to go, you put Trey on the trading block. If not, then you have a vet with a ton of starting experience available.

Erick V
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Reply to  Kyle DeDiminicantanio
1 month ago

That’s a great strategy that teams use. I know World is coming off a knee injury, but sometimes the players aren’t even really hurt. Teams just “find” something so that they can sit for a year and won’t get poached off of the PS. The Giants did it with Victor Cruz. Found an “injury” after a fantastic pre season and placed him on IR when the WR room had some expensive vets. Came in next year and took off.

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

Nice post, Tau.

You’ve said much of what I felt about Day 3.

Heading into Day 3 there were 50 or so players I knew by reputation/stats alone. We only drafted 2 of those guys and didn’t address pass rushing 3-tech, CB or TE.

For loading up this heavily on the OL to have been a successful and defensible strategy, I think both of the following need to happen:

  • We get aggressive with free agent signings now targeting players like Rasul Douglas, Jonnu Smith, Darren Waller, David Njoku or Calais Campbell. I’ve given up the idea that they will sign Joel Bitonio or Kevin Zeitler, but who knows with this regime. They’ve gone from not signing or drafting enough OL in Yrs 1-2, to running the room like a college outfit in Yr 3 (with bodies everywhere).
  • One of the 6th Round picks surprises everyone and becomes a future above average NFL starter. IOL is probably one of the positions where the chances of this occurring is higher, but I question how easy it is to evalute all these OL before roster cut down day. If we’ve drafted guys just for them to be cut and stashed on the PS, feels like a missed opportunity to draft other players who could have made the final roster on a 4yr, cost-controlled deal.
Blue Beers
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Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

Regarding your two “needs to happen”

1) They will almost certainly sign another TE. I would guess another CB too, although they already have 6 they seem to be happy with. I feel like another vet WR is possible too.

DT, I’m not so sure. They now have Tart, Caldwell, Eboigbe, Tomlinson and Barrett. Tomlinson and Barrett are pretty much only NT, but the other three can play 3T and makes me think they’re gonna play Caldwell at more 3T than we all thought he was initially drafted for. Definitely could use one more body there although I’m skeptical they’d go after Campbell.

2) Who the hell knows. Again, its roughly 20% chance of a 6th rounder lasting in the NFL beyond their rookie deal. So taking two cracks at the same position hypothetically gives them a 36% chance of one of them becoming a real player.

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
1 month ago

TDU_Alister
TDU_Alister(@alisterlloyd)
1 month ago

Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma(@buck-melanoma)
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1 month ago

Fuck Day 2. That’s my in-depth commentary and I like Slaughter. I’m just pissed that we either spent our 2nd on a future center, plan to crap on that strategy by moving him to guard, or plan to start Penning.

But hey….we have 5 Day 3 picks now….yay.

Buck Melanoma
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Reply to  Buck Melanoma
1 month ago

Oh, my bad….7 Day 3 picks. Again….I like Slaughter the player. I do not like the narrative of moving a guy who has played center his entire career to guard….especially with good guards to be had with our 3rd round pick….Pregnon in particular. The NE trade already got us back to 7 total picks.

I feel like Hortiz stashes picks the way he stashes cap money and I don’t think it’s necessarily beneficial.

Maybe Day 3 will be a pleasant surprise.

KevDiego
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Reply to  Buck Melanoma
1 month ago

I’m interested to see what the new offensive staff can do to develop players. The defensive staff has, for the most part, been great a taking flawed talent and turning that into productive players. The offense, and specifically the OL staff, have been shit at developing players.

Taking a below-average center (Bozeman) and turning him into the worst center in the NFL was a neat trick. Taking your best available LT and forcing him to play guard was “creative.” The inability to adjust to the same basic stunts that opponents kept running for 2 years was…. Well, let’s just say it didn’t help my blood pressure (or Justin’s).

I would have preferred Pregnon, but think the Chargers drafted a quality interior lineman. The important bit will be what the new coaching staff can do with him (and whomever else they add). Cautiously optimistic (and pretty certain that Berry > Devlin).

Buck Melanoma
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Reply to  KevDiego
1 month ago

Again….I don’t disagree that Slaughter is a good player and yes, I’ve been pounding the table for a long-term solution at center. I know the team likes “versatility” in their players, particularly offensive linemen it seems.

BUT….we need a LG. I do not believe Penning is the answer there. We could have drafted an experienced guard. Instead the plan is to introduce a rookie to a new position that he’s barely played. We could have had Pregnon, an experienced performer at guard. Not perfect but likely to beat out Penning, IMO.

I’ve read a few places that Hortiz was enamored with Slaughter, gave him his “blue star” on their big board. Was it a case of tunnel vision?

I’m simply not seeing this talk of protecting “most valuable asset” Herbert aligning with their actions. Until I either see that change or this process succeed, color me a skeptic.

Blue Beers
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Reply to  Buck Melanoma
1 month ago

I’m a bit surprised you’re so upset. The only two players I thought would’ve been good picks were Pregnon and Dunker, but they both fell roughly 40 picks further than pre-draft projections which tells me that NFL talent evaluators were all seeing something in those guys that blogging draft “scout” apparatus didn’t see. And it may be as simple as they just didn’t think Pregnon is a fit for this offense. They had two cracks at him and passed.

I don’t think this was simply about stashing picks. They likely just didn’t see a huge talent dropoff in their grades between the 86th player and the 106th. In a weak draft, that is not surprising.

They want players that fit the system that McDaniels is going to run, so I’m going to reserve judgement until I see how the next two rounds unfold.

Blue Beers
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Reply to  Blue Beers
1 month ago

And one other thing on the “pick stashing”… I personally could care less about the picks in the 200s, but 4 picks in 105 – 145 gives them a pretty good chance at landing a couple of real contributors. In the first Hortiz/Harbaugh draft, they landed Eboigbe, Still and Hart in that range. Last year, they only had one pick in that range and it was Kennard. Jury is out on him every being useful, but even 2 out of 4 of these picks in that range would be very succesfull

Blue Beers
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Reply to  Kyle DeDiminicantanio
1 month ago

When they showed the clip of the war room, they all seemed pretty happy about Slaughter and McDaniel was fired up. Slaughter must’ve been their primary OL target in the 2nd round and they were happy he was there. They obviously feel he is a good scheme fit whether competing at G or backing up at C.

Buck Melanoma
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Reply to  Blue Beers
1 month ago

An article I read said Hortiz gave his “blue star” rating to Slaughter so yes, he got his guy.

Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma(@buck-melanoma)
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Reply to  Blue Beers
1 month ago

I would have preferred keeping our 3rd over the extra 5th and 6th, but I guess that’s just me. Picks in the top 100 are usually pretty coveted and valuable….unless you’re Tom Telesco. lol

Buck Melanoma
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Reply to  Blue Beers
1 month ago

Yes, we need, and have needed, a center of the future. I just can’t see how turning arguably the best center prospect of the draft into a guard, a position he’s barely played, serves either position very well. I’d have preferred turning Jennings Dunker into a guard when taking into account the draft capital.

And Kyle, not meaning to argue, but if guards are really not that consequential in MM’s offensive scheme, why would he be so excited about the pick?

They’re here and, as always, I welcome the new players and wish them well. But one pick on Day 2 doesn’t sit well with me.

Last edited 1 month ago by Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma
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Reply to  Buck Melanoma
1 month ago

Day 3 was a much more pleasant surprise than I expected. Glad we dipped heavily into the remaining OL pool, especially at guard. And hopefully we got a swing tackle who can replace Pipkins by next year latest.

Last edited 1 month ago by Buck Melanoma
Erick V
Erick V(@erick-v)
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1 month ago

I was never really excited about any of the options in this draft at pick 22, but there were plenty I did not want. Mesidor is a good pick. It filled a need with a pro ready player that doesn’t even have to bear the weight of starting right away. He can be a DPR and sharpen his craft under Mack and Tuli. The pick makes sense all the way around and filled a need with a good player. Now getting a OG in Rd 2 would be a chefs kiss IMO.

Last edited 1 month ago by Erick V
Blue Beers
Blue Beers(@blue-beers)
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1 month ago

I like the pick and it made perfect sense absent a trade down. They took the BPA and even past that, pretty much all of the potential OL players worth taking at 22 were gone (other than if you believe Lomu would’ve been worth taking but lots of people had him as a 2nd round grade).

The only other viable picks (IMO) would’ve been: 1) Thienemen, but having a cheap Edge for the next 4-5 years is way more valuable than a cheap safety (plus safety is not as much of a need) OR 2) Peter Woods – I had been rooting for Woods since like February, and only in the last week or two had been seeing more and more about the question marks with him and his inconsistencies and that a lot of teams had him as a 2nd round player. I am pissed the Chiefs grabbed him, and him learning behind Chris Jones is honestly perfect. That said, one of the biggest Q’s with Woods is if he has the passion an the nastiness to ever be anything like Chris Jones and I think that’s why the Chargers passed on him, because otherwise he would’ve been a perfect fit.

The Chargers needed pass rush, and they needed both an Edge and a 3T. They got one, and now I expect them to focus on OL on Day 2. I hope one of these years they finally get an elite interior pass rusher, but I’m not upset about Mesidor over Woods. It makes sense.

I also look forward to Caldwell taking the step up that I think he will and maybe they’ll play him more at the 3T next to Tomlinson.

Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma(@buck-melanoma)
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1 month ago

There was a lot of talk about Mesidor’s age. That’s not insignificant but I don’t view it as a liability for 2 primary reasons. One, you’re getting a mature, ascending player who likely won’t be easily distracted, is focused on learning, and can step in to produce immediately. The other is the value that a 1st round contract can bring for at least 4 yrs.

I believe Mesidor will thrive under Mack’s tutelage and quickly become another “lunch pail” guy. Love the pick.

KevDiego
KevDiego(@kevdiego)
Member
1 month ago

CBS Sports:

Akheem Mesidor — EDGE, Miami B+

The Chargers need help on the interior offensive line in the worst way, and they will wait until at least Day 2 to find it. That might not be the worst move from a positional value perspective. Plus, it’s not like they won’t benefit from some edge help. Akheem Mesidor makes a lot of sense for a team that just lost Odafe Oweh and will eventually need to replace Khalil Mack.

KevDiego
KevDiego(@kevdiego)
Member
1 month ago

Yahoo Sports:
22. Los Angeles ChargersAkheem Mesidor, Edge, MiamiGrade: D+

This is rich for a pass rusher who is already 25 years old, but the Chargers must believe that he has enough juice to end up as a consistent threat off the edge. He’s more inconsistent and needed the talent around him at Miami more than people have let on. He now enters a defense that needs him to be sturdy against the run. This is risky.