We’ve just released Episode 129 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis is below:
Every week presents a different challenge in the NFL. In Wk 9, the Chargers were confronted by a plucky Titans team who punched above their weight class early at Nissan Stadium, scoring 14 points in Q1 courtesy of a pick-six and a 67 yd punt return TD. Adding injury to insult, the Chargers lost Offensive Tackles Bobby Hart (for the day) and Joe Alt (sadly, for the season) before half-time. However, in a gritty second half performance, the Bolts stuck together and clawed their way to victory; a fitting tribute to their starting LB Daiyan Henley whose older brother sadly passed away earlier in the week. The Chargers are now 6-3 (with a 3-0 intra-division record), but why does this season feel on the precipice? And of what exactly? Join us on another episode of TDU to find out!
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Alister (@TDU_Alister)
Long time team fan, podcaster (with Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast), husband to a beautiful wife, friend to all fellow Chargers fanatics, and father-to-be!
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Listened to the show the other day during a round of golf on a beautiful fall morning. A few comments:
I was able to listen to the first fifteen or so today. I’m looking forward to the rest in the morning.
Regarding Andy’s comment on the “stalwart” guys on the o-line, I got to thinking of the rugged, knowing, and media friendly nickname for this particular group. What I came up with:
The St. Allwarts Home for the Perpetually Insufficient.
Maybe it’s my Catholic upbringing, but I think it’s got a ring to it. I’ll go get the t-shirts printed. (T-shirts to be ill-fitting, expensive, and guaranteed to fall apart more quickly than they were actually useful. Each shirt will carry at least one drop of Justin Herbert’s actual blood, sweat, and/or tears.)
😆 😆 😆
Listened today and what is becoming one of my favorite parts of the show is when I can hear Jack start to get heated about a topic or player and I can hear the eruption about to begin as he is talking. He was able not to have a full vent today, but damn I heard it coming when he was talking about the OL getting pushed around. It is also great when Al or Andy stoke the flame to get an eruption. I love it. I think Jack and I share the same sentiments often because the same topics he seems to get pissed about I 100% agree on. it would be a blast to watch a game with him, because I get pissed in game and start complaining about the absolutely stupid shit you see during games sometimes.
Two questions I had about the roster building was that with all the short term contracts constantly being given, do you think it has an effect on the roster building by:
It just seems to me that when you constantly need to fill 15+ positions for the core 53, it makes the task more difficult. I get not wanting to be hamstrung by longer deals for guys who aren’t performing or are oft injured, but the more you can focus on a few key areas each year would just naturally seem like a better process.
Very kind words, Erick. Thanks!
Mate, you have not NOT LIVED until you’ve watched a live Chargers game with Jack. It is a sight to behold. I mean, I can go nuts too. But Jack’s booming voice and huge presence is amazing to see, like being alive during Vesuvius. If you’re a little kid watching it, you’ll be transfixed, but you’d better leave the area soon coz the roof might come down.
On your two questions, I might store those away for a rainy day (maybe Bye week?).
On team cohesion – I remember on one of our very early shows,
Kyle DeDiminicantanio did an analysis of Super Bowl winning teams and how many departing v incoming free agents they’d had in the year before the Super Bowl, and if continuity was important. I can’t quite remember his findings but I recall it was at least not obviously damning of the approach we were taking at the time (signing Mack, SJD, etc).
My guess is any correlation between “keeping the same team” and winning the playoffs would probably be on the weaker side, since player movement in the NFL is so prevalent, but maybe you’d want at least strong leadership and some common threads among personality types of players you bring in.
Obviously Harbaugh’s motto is “I want guys who love football”. Maybe there’s something in that. But if there is, Hortiz must think he can find those traits in free agents (or in trade candidates, eg Trevor Penning) just as easily as he can in draft picks.
What do you think?
Very kind words Erick. Thanks!
Mate, you have NOT LIVED until you’ve watched a Chargers game with Jack. It is an experience like no other. I can go nuts with the best of them, but Jack’s booming voice and huge presence are amazing to behold, like being alive to witness Vesuvius. If you’re a little kid watching it, you’ll be transfixed, but you’d better leave the area asap because the roof might come down!
On your two questions, I might store those away for a rainy day (maybe Bye week?)
On team cohesion – I remember on one of our very first shows
Kyle DeDiminicantanio did an analysis of Super Bowl winning teams and how many departing v incoming free agents they’d had in the offseason prior to their Super Bowl push, and if continuity was important. I can’t remember his precise findings, but I recall it was at least not obviously damning of the “All-In’ approach we were taking at the time with Telesco (signing Mack, SJD, etc).
My guess is any correlation between ‘keeping the same team’ and winning the Super Bowl would probably be on the weaker side since player movement in the NFL is so prevalent. But maybe you’d want at least strong leadership to or at least some common threads among the personality types of players you bring into the building.
Obviously Harbaugh’s motto is “I want guys who love football”. Maybe there’s something in that. But if there is, Hortiz must think he can find those same traits in free agents or trade targets (eg, Penning) just easily as he can in draft prsopects.
What do you think?
I think the reasoning behind it in year one was sound. Bad cap, new regime flushing out some bad players, so the one year deals just to get our feet under us for a season was correct logic. Another advantage is that it gives you the opportunity to find some players in situations where they are playing for a career or bigger pay day so you get the absolute best effort from them, hoping they outplay their deal. However, IMO their are a few caveats to this method:
Remember this is Hortiz’ first time in the big chair, so we still need to see him in action a little longer, but for all the good things he has done, that arrogant reply to Popper in the preseason still rings in my head resoundingly. I just pray that last year’s 11 win season, with one of the weakest schedules we have faced in a long time, hasn’t started to mold his philosophy that this current roster building method is foolproof.
Good discussion.
I always thought the roster building paradigm this regime is following is to draft their long-term core team, then fill in the cracks with high upside, low cost FAs. Sticking with the baseball analogy, Telesco was always trying to take the big swings. Hortiz is trying to get on base in any way possible.
I expect that the roster will settle down in the coming years, with more players drafted filling out. I just took a quick look at the roster. By my count, there are 29 players that were either drafted or signed as UDFAs on the active roster (including Keenan and Denzel). I expect that number will go up to the low 30s by 2027.
The other advantage of the short contracts is accumulating comp picks. That didn’t work out so well this year as they signed too many higher-cost FAs, but overall, it should help.
The one question I have is why not give 2-3 year contracts to younger players with high upside? Example: Instead of signing Poona to a 1 year, $1.8M contract, why not make it a 3 year, $10M, with salaries of $2M, $3M & $5M? If he sucks, cut him. If he’s great, you have him for 3 years. I guess cutting players doesn’t help the comp pick strategy, but if you are depending on a guy to fill a hole, structure a contract that is easy to cut, keeps them around and encourages/rewards performance.
The roster building this year IMO was especially poor in FA. They didn’t spend big, still didn’t gain comp picks and then had to trade AWAY picks to then fortify positions he cheaped out on in FA. “11 wins, right Pop”.
I don’t disagree. They did, however, spend all their cap. They would be pretty fucked if they spent $15-$20M on one interior player.
Like it or not, I just don’t see this front office spending bit on FAs.
First, I disagree that you know they would be fucked if they spent big on a player. Depends on the player, and how “spending big” would have changed other decisions.
There is no reasonable “one size fits all” rule for all situations, like never spend big or always spend big. Situations vary.
Second, what if they didn’t spend $15M+ on a player but spent $10M to retain Poona? That would have worked out fine IMO, especially if it meant not signing one of the other IDLs, which would have offset some of the delta.
Next season, they have 4 OL and 2 IDL under contract. There is a tremendous amount of work to be done in those two position groups to make them even equal to 2025 level, much less better.
If Hortiz spent $14M on Dalman and $10M on Becton, then lost Slater & Alt for the season, how would they sign a replacement? They definitely would not have been able to trade for Oweh.
Agree that all the 1 year contracts create increase the off season churn. With only 5 picks in the draft, there will continue to be substantial holes to fill in the trenches. The frustrating thing is that they style of football Harbaugh wants to play requires talent in the interior of the line. The fact that Hortiz has not spent $ or picks to address the lack of talent is confusing.
Hortiz needs to either draft the center of the future or find a way to sign Linderbaum
As I said, it depends on where he would have spent the money.
Here are some possibilities:
1. Re-sign Poona to exact same contract he got from the Rams. Do not sign IDL Hand. Net 2025 cap spend increase: ~$2.4M.
Letting Poona walk seemed like an obvious mistake at the time, which seemed like a fairly widely held view by fans. Not signing Hand as a replacement follows keeping Poona. Poona has outplayed Hand dramatically, and he has also been on the field for about 50% more snaps.
2. Sign RG Will Fries instead of Becton. While this would have required a large contract commitment, the same contract as the Vikings would have actually created a net 2025 cap spend decrease of ~$1.7M.
This was discussed plenty as an option for the Chargers. Fries has played quite a bit better than Becton so far, and he has also played a lot more snaps. This would have represented a third large OL contract commitment, at least for a few years, which would indicate that Zion was not going to get one…
3. Draft G Ratledge in the 2nd round instead of Tre Harris. No cap impact.
…so this would represent the Zion succession plan (something the team doesn’t currently have). If Zion were to play poorly in 2025, they are ready to move on. If he were to play great, they could still move on and gain a nice comp pick formula boost. Meanwhile, Ratledge would be the best depth OL player on the 2025 roster.
4. Sign free agent C Shelton instead of James. Assuming the same contract Shelton got from the Rams, net 2025 cap spend increase: ~$3.3M. But this also would have made Bozeman a reserve, which would have likely prevented Bozeman from earning playing time incentives of $2.75M… making this a net cap increase of ~0.55M.
The Chargers signed James and never gave him a chance to compete with Bozeman. Had they signed Shelton, maybe they would have actually embraced their “competitors welcome” mantra, in which case I feel pretty certain Shelton would have earned the starting job, making Bozeman a backup C/G, which much better suits his actual talent level and would have strengthened the Chargers bench.
Obviously, this is a post made with hindsight. But none of these moves would have been surprising, and they would have upgraded both lines, all for a net cap impact of ~$1.25M.
It would have meant a more substantial cap space commitment to Poona and Fries in 2026 and beyond, at least until they earned a cap casualty move. Last offseason when this was playing out, I thought that tradeoff was worth it. Nothing that has happened this season has changed my mind about that.
I don’t disagree with any of this. I think Joe completely misjudged the market for Poona – that and counting on Bozeman at center were the two obvious mistakes of the offseason.
I liked the Becton signing at the time. Sucks that he’s struggling to stay on the field. They need his large arse on the field against the Steelers.
Another I forgot about. Too bad Joe wasn’t willing to pay just a bit more for Dobbins rather than signing Harris.
Dobbins signed a 1 year, $2.065M contract with Denver. So it might have taken just $2.5M or $3M to re-sign him. Instead of spending $5.3M on Harris. That would have more than covered all the other moves I mentioned.
I suppose they might have done what they did in the name of durability, and Harris’s injuries couldn’t have been foreseen… but Dobbins was a known to the team and staff.
Again, in hindsight, that would have been a better move. It hasn’t hurt too badly since Hampton performed well until his injury and Vidal has mostly performed well since then. But they could have had Dobbins and Hampton and then Dobbins and Vidal, both of which would obviously be superior to what they have had.
Maybe Dobbins was dead set on hitting the market and the Chargers felt they had to make a move. There are a lot of moving parts. But this is another one Joe let get away,
Personally, I think the error here was drafting Hampton in Rnd 1 (instead of trading down), when the RB duo could have been Dobbins + Najee heading into the season at reasonable cost.
Then we would have had a Rnd 1 pick to spend on another position and also whatever else the Eagles offered to trade up to 1.22 from 1.32 (Nobody knows for sure what was offered, but there is video footage of Hortiz and Howie arguing on the phone over a 4th or 3rd round pick. It’s unclear from the video whether this is all the Eagles offered to trade up or if was the 2026 ‘cherry on top’ component rather than the 2025 part of the deal).
Hampton looked average in his first two games this year, but then very good since then.
However, many others RBs in the 2025 class drafted later than Hampton have looked like capable contributors to an NFL backfield:
There is also receiving and pass protection to consider
From this^ it is clear that PFF doesn’t know how to grade RB Pass Protection in a way that’s helpful to the user. It’s also clear that Hampton has been very good as a Charger and has ‘three down back’ upside but probably still faces an uphill battle to have been worth the opportunity cost foregone to draft him at 1.22.
(P.S. Dobbins said in an Denver locker room interview before the Broncos game said that the Chargers ‘wanted him’ but they couldn’t agree on price. I think it wouldn’t have cost too much more than the tag).
I agree that trading down would have been superior to drafting Hampton. I don’t know what the true opportunity was there.
I also agree that drafting a blue chip player at another position would have been preferable to drafting Hampton. But I don’t know if the Chargers had any other players graded as blue chip players besides Hampton at that point of the draft.
I don’t think drafting Hampton was ideal. But at least the Chargers should be able to believe they drafted a franchise RB1 for 2025-2028 or 2029 if they want that… for an offense like the Harbaugh/Roman offense, that is quite important.
Good post Tau.
On Poona v Hand:
On Fries:
On Ratledge, I had a higher grade on him than Tre Harris. So no arguments there. I would have liked that pick and early returns suggest it would have been a good one.
On Shelton, the Rams look like they made a great decision there. Shelton is < 300 pounds, so maybe Hortiz questioned his scheme fit. The Rams have become a more ‘gap heavy’ run scheme and Shelton’s excelled in it this year. Good scouting my them. Probably some hindisght bias in this one as Andre James had at least been a Top 10 (graded) Center in the NFL at some stage before, whereas Shelton hadn’t. But if you want to mark this one against Hortiz, I think that’s fair.
On Fries, you are characterizing the contract as a 5 year, $88M contract. but it is really a 2 year, $35M contract, broken down as $5.6M in 2025, $17.2M in 2026, and $12M in 2027 if he is a cap casualty after the 2026 season.
That equates to a 2 year, $34.8M contract, with $12M pushed to the 3rd year cap, in this case, the 2027 cap. If the team wants 2 years only.
Interesting that you discount PFF grades in some posts, but cite them in others. Am I missing context?
I’m not going to the mat over Fries. I’m just using him as an example. But you say he is not delivering good value for the money. He is delivering a lot more value than Becton. Work out some kind of value per dollar metric, and I suspect Fries comes out ahead.
BTW, this has been a great discussion.
Generally, I consider myself a PFF supporter. I think their grades, especially over larger sample sizes, give you a fair approximation of a player’s value.
There will be times where I might have watched the game and disagree with a specific grade.
I haven’t watched any of the Vikings All-22 this year (other than our game against them) and there isn’t really a way to converse about an Offensive Lineman’s performance without referencing PFF, given the lack of traditional stats for the position, so on Fries it’s my only true recourse to a relevant data point.
Fries’ contract came with $34m fully guaranteed at signing. Becton’s came with $6.94m.
Given the respective draft pedigree and career performance between those two players heading into this season, I think it’s hard to fault Hortiz for choosing to pursue Becton (at that price).
Point taken about the value per dollar metric so far this season. Hard to argue against that part of it. Thankfully we don’t have another $27.16m guaranteed tied up in Becton’s future performance.
Good chat and enjoy the game watch tomorrow.
Good response Erick.
I think I’ve reached a position on this topic where I basically think Hortiz has done a very good job, and if someone thinks the team needed to be more aggressive in free agency, I will need you to set out the precise players you would have targeted and tell me the ones on the roster right now, you would not have (as a result).
You mention that Becton has been a dud. I agree. But I think Hortiz’s hit rate for his short-term FA deals have been pretty impressive. Whereas the teams that handed out the bigger contracts this year now have players like Will Fries being duds like Becton, on bigger, longer contracts!
I’m sure there are a few deals out there which are looking like good value (could we have lured Trey Smith?). But would you prefer Keenan Allen and Oweh on the deals we have them on right now; or Cooper Kupp, Davante, Milton Williams or Josh Sweat?
We also are right against the cap right now, even having adopted Hortiz’s approach.
And the Chargers were 11-6 last year, and 6-3 right now. Excellent results.
So…I think Hortiz deserves real credit for the team that we have right now. And for the critics out there, go and list all the signings that Hortiz should have made instead, and show me how you would have structured their deals. Presumably you’re going to be structuring them like the Saints or Eagles with future options and void years and things like that to make the Chargers cap compliant?
I don’t know, it’s obviously not a perfect performance. I think we should have kept Poona, and also the IOL is a problem (as Tau has set out; the team has not really prioritised the OL in the Draft).
But I think all things considered it’s been a pretty bloody impressive performance and turning around a team quickly (with help from the coaches, of course). Maybe that’s just me!
Agree with Al that the season is not done. Various teams this season have overcome OL injuries and won games. The Chargers have already done it. They can continue to do it, barring even more critical injuries.
Andy said he has seen a minor improvement with the M*A*S*H OL unit. I agree… they have probably stabilized at the below average level they are at. Which means Herbert knows what to expect and can (hopefully) compensate.
I know some of what has happened is circumstantial and could not have been reasonably planned for, but I can’t help but allow this to affect my thinking on the job Hortiz has done… it has lowered my opinion. Interested in other thoughts on that.
For me what really sticks in my craw was the arrogance he gave Popper in the preseason interview when he was questioned if he did enough to improve the IOL, and his answer was that they won 11 games last year. To a degree, I think he and Harbaugh broke their necks a little blowing themselves after the 11 win season instead of realizing that while it was no doubt a result of improvements in coaching and personnel, the schedule was a big factor in their success. Look at their record against winning teams last year.
I still think overall he has done a way better job in 2 years than anything we ever saw from Telesco, so I am not inclined to be down on Hortiz yet, but the 2026 FA period had better be more aggressive and targeted than it was last season, or my opinion could change.
Erick, I really don’t like so many people on X going after Hortiz for that ‘we won 11 games statement’. He was basically saying, you’re focussing on the negatives a lot Popper, but that OL was at least good enough that the team won 11 games with it, and we think we have some internal improvement in us.
Holding him over the barrel for that remark doesn’t really resonate with me, because Hortiz wasn’t saying the OL was a finished product, or that they were completely happy with it. They’d signed Becton and Hortiz will always say there’s more work to do. I didn’t think it was arrogant.
Thanks Tau.
I guess it depends what someone means when they say the ‘season is done’.
If they mean there’s a 0% they can win the Super Bowl, I don’t believe that losing your starting Offensive Tackles makes that true. Philly won the Super Bowl with Nick Foles and various key injuries.
Does it significantly reduce the ceiling of the team and make going on a deep playoff run harder and materially less likely? Yes I think it does.
Lol at M*A*S*H.
Why has Alt going down now (in a somewhat unlucky incident) lowered your opinion of Hortiz further. Talk me through it. Is the same stuff you’ve written about and we’ve discussed previously around not hitting the OL more frequently with draft picks?
Since you wrote this (I think), the Penning trade has gone through. Does that change anything for you? Trading away a 2027 6th for a former first rounder with positional flexibility is somewhat akin to having spent a mid-round pick on a guy in the 2025 NFL Draft. I think Penning will play at that level now, or maybe better?
Speaking of M*A*S*H:
Yes.
All of this hurt the Chargers in 2024 and even more in 2025 so far. On top of this, he has just 4 OL under contract for 2026: Slater (coming off serious injury), Alt (coming off serious injury), Bozeman (worst center in NFL?), and Becton (cap casualty?). They will need to acquire at least 5 OL, including at least 1 starter, but really should be 2 to eliminate Bozeman from starting lineup.
Drafting Alt was a great move. The rest of the OL moves have been collectively subpar, especially for a team that claims it wants the OL to be a strength.
It is absolutely the case that bad injury luck has exposed this problem area for the Chargers this season, but that is a known risk, so there is no reason to give Hortiz a pass for that.
Penning:
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/los-angeles-chargers/news/los-angeles-chargers-acquiring-trevor-penning-trade-new-orleans-saints/924453498ab125878904f43e
This is funny, because there was so much discussion in 2022 (over at BFTB) about drafting Penning with their 1st round pick. I was adamantly against Penning, I felt he was a 3rd round talent. I know Buck was a big part of that discussion too.
Ultimately the Chargers drafted Zion who I think you can argue has been better than Penning but not by a whole lot. Now they have them both!
I recall the debate all over Charger-Ville as well. I was glad at the time they didn’t draft him (seemed like a bit of a head-case), but here we are….
Looks like our 6th rounder out the door for Penning.
(maybe the 2027 6th rounder?)
2027 6th rounder.
Great price, can’t complain about this at all. There aren’t many young offensive linemen with extensive starting resumes and decent traits out there.
I’d be through the moon over this trade if Mike Devlin had developed/improved a single offensive lineman on our roster.
I personally think Penning kind of sucks, but the Chargers are between a rock and a hard place so it is what it is. They’ve tried moving him all around and he’s been bad everywhere.
Is he better than Salyer at LT or Pipkins at RT? Not so sure, maybe? He is probably better than Foster Sarell though! The best we can hope for is that our system is somehow better for him.
“Thus far in 2025, Penning has been playing left guard for the Saints since returning from injury in Week Four. Per Pro Football Focus, Penning is the 65th-ranked guard in the NFL out of 78 qualifying players. He has allowed three sacks and 15 total pressures in those six starts.”…
He’s going to fit right in!
Some All 22 clips from the Titans game we posted to X
Clip 1:
Clip 2:
Clip 3:
Clip 4:
Clip 5:
Clip 6: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1985559988493078852
Clip 7: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1985565712140943585
Clip 8: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1985566646275305530
Clip 9: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1985570340597285106
Clip 10: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1985574393830129798