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Dedicating a topic to QJ, since he is a player who will likely significantly impact the first year success of the Harbaugh/Roman offense, whether positively or negatively.
The Prospect
I tracked the draft rankings for all of the Chargers 2023 draft picks here: 2023 Draft Rankings Discussion. I wrote this in that post after the Chargers selected Johnston:
The Chargers selected Johnston right in line with his general rankings, so no reach here. However, I really don’t like this pick.
First off, with Nolan Smith, Brian Branch, all TEs, and all WRs other than JSN available, I would have preferred to trade back. It is possible that wasn’t an option, if no other teams wanted to trade up… but there was a lot of trading that went on.
Regardless, I would have taken Smith or Branch or Mayer before a WR here. The WR class is not very strong at the top, but it is deep. I would have targeted a WR in the 2nd or, more likely, the 3rd round.
@TDU_Alister posted in the comments that the Chargers wanted Smith-Njigba, but Seattle took him at 1.20, so the team debated between WRs Johnston, Flowers, and Addison and settled on Johnston, who was favored by OC Moore. That makes it seem like they had pre-determined that they were going to take a WR no matter who was available. If true, that is bad process IMO.
Johnston reportedly ran a 4.51 40 time at his pro day. For those fans who were clamoring for a speed WR, I don’t think Johnston fits the bill. Then again, speed on the field is different than speed on the track, so maybe he will prove to be faster than his 40 time suggests.
He is now a Charger, so I will root for him.
I tracked 11 rankings sources in that article. 3 of them had Johnston ranked as the #1 WR, and 4 others had him as #2. None had him ranked lower than #5 at WR. So, while he was disappointing in 2023, he shouldn’t have been viewed as a particular reach. A healthy percentage of first round picks don’t play up to their draft potential, but it wasn’t obviously foreseeable for Johnston.
For WRs, I like to read Matt Harmon’s work at Reception Perception. Here is the draft profile he wrote last year: Quentin Johnston 2023 Prospect Profile. He wrote this about Johnston’s route tree:
The full route tree just isn’t there for Johnston yet. He primarily wins on slants, crossers, deep posts, nines, and corners and that’s about it. He needs refinement on working back to the quarterback on curls and comebacks, as well as his timing at the angle on digs. Those routes will make the difference in whether he becomes a legitimate No. 1 receiver or a splash big-play running mate.
He didn’t identify which TCU games he evaluated, but these are the route percentages and success rates Harmon charted:
- Slant – 20.4% (success rate 85.7%)
- Curl – 19.4% (success rate 67.5%)
- Nine – 17.5% (success rate 61.1%)
- Post – 10.7% (success rate 72.7%)
- Screen – 9.7% (success rate 95.0%)
- Dig – 8.7% (success rate 66.7%)
- Corner – 4.4% (success rate 77.8%)
- Out – 3.9% (success rate 95.0%)
- Comeback – 2.9% (success rate 66.7%)
- Flat – 1.0% (success rate 100.0%)
- Other – 1.5% (success rate 33.3%)
Looking at that data, it’s somewhat surprising that he wasn’t used more often on posts, corrners, and outs. Maybe that was a limitation of the TCU QBs like Duggan.
Harmon identified the hands and body catching issues that we all saw in Johnston’s rookie season:
Alright, let’s get to his hands. This is easily the most concerning portion of his evaluation and if he has a fatal flaw, it’ll be this…not any refinement he needs as a route runner.
Johnston checked in with an 8.1% drop rate in his RP sample but more problematic, a 46.2% contested catch rate (18.3% of targets). He just can be a flat-out mess at the catch point. He lets routine balls into his frame in non-contested situations and too often ends up clapping at the ball when he extends his hands on the ground. More frustratingly, he so often resorts to leaping for balls well within his catch radius and then ends up body catching, or at least attempting it. He needs to be more confident in high-pointing passes that are within his radius. He knows how to box out defenders but he’s either got the timing wrong in his jumps or settles for the body catch because he’ll lose contested situations despite good positioning.
Players don’t wash out of the league because of issues like this but they can frustrate fans and coaches. They only end up washing out of the league if they aren’t good enough separators and route-runners to make occasional hands lapses worth living with.
On a more positive note, Harmon wrote:
There are absolutely big plays to be had with Johnston, especially after the catch. He was “in space” on 17% of his routes and was only dropped on first contact less than half of those chances. He broke a single tackle on 40% of his “in space” attempts and multiple tackles on 14.3%. That puts him in the range of famed YAC guys – and much smaller players – like Kadarius Toney, Rondale Moore and Garrett Wilson in the RP database. Johnston has a great mix of slide, elusive-based moves with the physical mindset to take on and power through contact in the open field.
This seems to align with what Telesco and Staley said about Johnston after the draft. More on this below.
Harmon concluded with this:
If a team in the late first round is confident in their ecosystem, has proven players to put ahead of Johnston in the pecking order and has a quality quarterback, there’s no reason not to take a chance on his theoretical alpha ceiling. He needs the right type of grooming but he’s not working from Square 1 as a route runner. That helps. Even if he never becomes a legit No. 1 receiver, he has a floor as a big-play and designed touches asset to any good passing game if he sticks. I think he’s an ideal Round 2 pick.
The Chargers had two of the items on Harmon’s checklist: proven WRs ahead of Johnston on the depth chart and a quality QB. And they were probably confident in their ‘ecosystem’ too, but we now know that ecosystem failed. I’m hoping the Harbaugh/Roman ecosystem is going to prove to be what Johnston needs to reach his potential.
The Rookie Season
Here are some metrics from PFF to summarize Johnston’s performance in his rookie season:
- 38 receptions on 65 targets (58.8% catch percentage)
- 13.0 ADOT, which was the highest on the team
- 431 receiving yards (11.3 YPR, 0.88 YPRR)
- 152 YAC (4.0 YAC/reception) and 5 missed tackles forced
- 2 TDs and 20 first downs
- 2 drops (5.0%)
- Caught 7 of 22 contested catches (31.8%)
- 82.3 passer rating when targeted
His PFF grades were pretty dismal. Here they are, along with where they ranked:
- Offense – 58.9, tied for #75 among 84 graded WRs with at least 50 targets
- Receiving – 58.7, #77 among 84 graded WRs with at least 50 targets
- vs. Man coverage – 53.8, #103 among 109 WRs with at least 10 targets vs. man
- vs. Zone coverage – 56.4, tied for #91 among 107 WRs with at least 10 targets vs. zone
- Running – 63.4, #34 among 100 WRs with at least 1 rushing attempt… but small sample size of just 3 attempts
- Run blocking – 52.7, #67 among 131 WRs with at least 100 run blocking snaps
Not much to like there.
Harmon evaluated Johnston’s rookie season here: Quentin Johnston 2023 Player Profile. He led into that article with this:
Johnston’s rookie year Reception Perception will not ease any concerns brought on by his statistical profile. His season went as poorly as it appears, maybe even worse. What this profile will show is a player who was set up to fail by the coaching staff that drafted him but also a wideout who did nothing to earn any sort of catering.
He didn’t identify which Chargers games he evaluated, but these are the route percentages and success rates Harmon charted:
- Nine – 27.0% (success rate 44.9%)
- Slant – 18.8% (success rate 70.8%)
- Curl – 10.9% (success rate 46.4%)
- Dig – 9.8% (success rate 56.0%)
- Corner – 8.6% (success rate 45.5%)
- Out – 7.0% (success rate 44.4%)
- Post – 5.5% (success rate 57.1%)
- Comeback – 5.5% (success rate 35.7%)
- Screen – 1.6% (success rate 100.0%)
- Flat – 1.6% (success rate 50.0%)
- Other – 3.9% (success rate 40.0%)
Those success rates are dismal. The most important question to answer is how much of this is who Johnston is as a player vs. how much of this is on the previous coaching staff. Harmon puts plenty of blame on the Chargers:
He had some positive indicators in Reception Perception; there were traits to mine on film. But nothing, and I mean nothing from his play at TCU indicated he was ready to step in as an NFL X-receiver and win big boy routes early in his career. And yet, that’s exactly what he was tasked to do in Los Angeles.
Johnston lined up outside on a whopping 91.3% of his sampled snaps and was on the line for 74%. He rarely was put in motion, off the line or traveled into the slot. The Chargers seemingly wanted him to develop as the fourth receiver in 2023 and be the long-term X-receiver heir apparent to Mike Williams. That was strange drafting for a win-now team but more importantly, if anyone should know that the injury history of their top receivers could force Johnston into playing time earlier than expected, it was the Chargers.
After Williams went down in Week 3, Johnston was forced to take over his X-receiver role and as anyone could have predicted, it went horribly.
Johnston’s success rate vs. coverage scores are nothing short of abysmal. There’s just no way around it. He wasn’t just one of the worst separators in the NFL last season, he is one of the worst separators in Reception Perception history (2014 to 2024).
The lack of nuance in his route running is alarming but not surprising given how he won in college. Johnston was a raw technician at TCU. He wasn’t ready for this role where he saw high rates of press and man coverage at the X-receiver position while running a vertical, low-percentage route tree. I have no idea what player the Chargers thought they were getting but this is an all-time misjudging a prospect’s path to success in the league.
Daniel Popper commented on Johnston’s usage last October. From What’s behind Chargers rookie Quentin Johnston’s slow start?:
The Chargers are utilizing Johnston mostly as a deep-field threat. This part is curious. Because on the night the Chargers drafted Johnston in April, both Staley and general manager Tom Telesco specifically mentioned Johnston’s yards-after-catch ability as a motivating factor in the pick. And yet through six weeks, 38.7 percent of Johnston’s 81 routes have been either go routes or posts, according to TruMedia. That number is corroborated on film. Among receivers with at least 75 routes run this season, only four — the New York Giants’ Jalin Hyatt, the Tennessee Titans’ Chris Moore, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ George Pickens and the New Orleans Saints’ Rashid Shaheed — have run a higher percentage of gos and posts.
The Chargers, to this point, have not been implementing the type of YAC touches for Johnston that would allow him to create with the ball in his hands. He ran one slant in the past two games, according to TruMedia. He ran four crossing routes. His one catch came on an out-of-structure scramble drill.
I asked Staley and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore this week why they have not been designing more of these touches for Johnston over the past two games.
“It just hasn’t happened yet,” Staley said. “There’s plenty of design for that. Again, it’s just so early, but he needs to stay on track.”
“We’re really close,” Moore said. “We certainly got to give him some more opportunities, and that’s on me. We got to find those.”
…these routes are not useless. Far from it. But field-stretching speed is not that difficult to find in the NFL. Using a first-round pick on a player who is making his biggest contributions as a deep-threat decoy is not a great allocation of resources.
…None of these limitations for Johnston are a surprise. They were on tape in college and part of the reason he was a relatively divisive prospect coming out — explosive traits but raw in some of the finer details of the position.
The solution moving forward: Put Johnston in a position to succeed with the type of YAC concepts that will get the ball in his hands in space and allow those traits to take over.
Harmon concludes with this:
Changing up the deployment can help Johnston in the future to get him away from difficult coverage and working in the open field. Again, the problem is, in the very brief glimpses we saw of Johnston in the run after catch game, his dominance from TCU didn’t translate. He was only “in space” on 3.1% of his sampled routes and he went down on first contact on 87.5% of those plays.
Quentin Johnston is a full-scale tear down and rebuild project for a new Chargers coaching staff. History shows it’s not an impossible task for him to reclaim some viability as a pro and become a useful player but it’s an unlikely one and will be a long road to pull it off. We just didn’t see much evidence to push us forward from his Year 1 Reception Perception charting data.
Going Forward
It’s a mystery to me why the Chargers drafted him and seemingly didn’t use him properly, but that is something that should be addressed by the new coaching staff. To the extent this was a coaching/scheme/usage problem, that can be rectified immediately, so there is reason to believe that he could perform significantly better in 2024 for that reason alone.
Beyond that, hopefully Johnston has used his offseason productively to build on his rookie year experience. I have seen at least one report that Johnston is performing well in OTAs, though I know we had a lot of similar reports last season.
Everything in his rookie season wasn’t negative. Here is a video in which Steve Smith talks about his review of Johnston’s play on film last season. He finished by saying this:
Definitely have optimism. He needs to get in there and get his feet right and look at his own tendencies… I think he’ll be fine.
I don’t follow Steve Smith, but I am aware that he can be fairly critical of WRs, so I will choose to take his optimism as a positive. He also noted more than once that new coordinator is going to help. In hindsight, Kellen Moore was a huge disappointment, and I think it is going to reflect poorly on him when the Chargers have a better passing offense under Roman, who is known for run-based offenses.
Assuming he remains healthy, I think he is going to greatly improve both his production and efficiency this season, and I doubt Chark is going to get a lot of opportunities. Looking forward to seeing it happen on the field.
Thoughts?
I really enjoyed this post Tau.
I think where I fall on this is that I totally agree that he was used in a head-scratching manner given his skillset. However, I would also hope and expect that a guy who, as you say, was ranked as WR1 in the class by some analysts, would not be so limited as to only be able to win in certain prescribed ways and could still have shown us something more to excite us with all the snaps he played.
So I assign blame to all and sundry. The coaches for being idiotic and QJ for not still finding a way to produce in some meaningful way as a Rnd 1 calibre talent.
What the data tells me though is that his evaluation as a pro remains a distinct question mark and, if he’s used in ways that accentuate his strengths, could still become a useful NFL receiver
BTW, there is another message board I have been a part of for more than 20 years. In that forum, we have threads dedicated to players, like this one. I like that methodology and recommend we do that here, at least for players likely to generate significant discussion.
@It is shocking that the Chargers burned a first round pick on a receiver that has a limited route tree, body catches the ball, does not high point the ball, struggles to get separation. In a “all-in” year they burned a first round pick on a project.
Then they doubled down on incompetence by misusing him.
Thanks for putting all this information together Tau.
Fingers crossed for QJ, but I’m not very confident that he will ever measure up to his draft status.
Great post Tau – once again, thank you for putting in the time to post quality, researched content.
The statistics are damning. If I had a press credential, I think I would ask John Spanos what the plan was for QJ and how it got so far off the rails. I was shocked at the time of the pick as Johnson was not even on my radar. The way the draft was breaking, I felt that Flowers fell directly into their lap and almost put my fist through my monitor when they didn’t pick him. It would be very interesting to understand the logic. If Moore really wanted Johnson, why didn’t he use him correctly? What the fuck was their plan?
Hindsight usually provides clarity – At the time of the pick, I wanted Flowers. As you pointed out in your previous post, there were many good non-WR options available 1.21. In hindsight, I agree with you. Dalton Kincaid would be an amazing addition to this team.
My guess at how the WR room will shape up in 2023:
- WR1: Chark: I think the top-3 WRs will all rotate. Chark’s blocking ability & speed should lead to him seeing more of the field at both X&Y
- WR2: Palmer: Palmer has improved every season. I don’t expect him to become a better athlete, but I do think his route running will continue to improve; With Allen gone, I would not be surprised if Palmer leads the Chargers in receptions in 2024 as Justin will be looking for a dependable, familiar target on 3rd down.
- WR3: McConkey: I expect Ladd will get 10-20 snaps per game at Z in 2024. Will be interesting to see how his body holds up to an NFL season
- WR4: QJ: I could actually see him fall down the depth chart if he continues to struggle with the fundamentals of the position. I’m rooting for him, but also think there’s a chance that he’s inactive for several games, especially if Rice or Cornelius Johnson prove to be better
- WR5: Brenden Rice: Loved this pick. Would not be shocked to see him have meaningful snaps in the 2nd half of the season
- WR6: Cornelius Johnson: Also a great pick. Depending on the health of the WR room (both Palmer and McConkey have an injury history), he could see more of the field than we expect.
Missing from this list is Davis. While I think he brings speed and open-field illusiveness to the WR room, so does McConkey and Chark. With the kickoff-rule change, I don’t see the Chargers keeping a punt returner that can’t play a position.
@kevdiego Here is how I see it:
WR1 McConkey: If he stays healthy, I expect McConkey to lead the team in targets and receptions. He is the most skilled WR on the roster, and I expect him to step into Allen’s role and be a poor man’s Allen right away. Based on his history, I realize staying healthy is not a given.
WR2 Johnston: I expect Johnston to get first shot as the starting X receiver, in which case he should have more snaps than Palmer. With the combination of his potential ceiling and the fact that his contract is guaranteed through 2026, the coaching staff will presumably do everything possible to help him succeed and fulfill his potential. I am cautiously optimistic that he will have a much better season this year.
WR3 Palmer: His experience and Herbert connection should enable Palmer to maintain his WR3 role to open the season. However, based on his PFF run blocking grades, he has never been a good run blocker, which may open the door for Rice or Johnson to take some of his snaps. It’s also worth noting that he is a UFA after the 2024 season and was drafted by the previous regime… no guarantee he will be with the Chargers in 2025, which is another reason the team may prefer to give some of his snaps to Rice and/or Johnson, particularly later in the season.
WR4 Chark: If Johnston fails at X receiver, Chark is there to step in. Otherwise, he is there to run a few deep routes every game. Like Palmer, he could lose snaps to Rice and/or Johnson later in the season. Based on his PFF run blocking grades, he has never been a good run blocker, which makes his signing a bit curious.
WR5 Rice: The opportunity is there for him to take Palmer’s job by the end of the season if he plays well, particularly if he shows he can be an effective run blocker.
WR6 Johnson: Without injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, I expect he will be limited to a special teams role in 2024.
I’m expecting those 6 to make the final roster and Davis to be the odd man out, for reasons I posted previously at BFTB.
WR1: Chark: I think the top-3 WRs will all rotate. Chark’s blocking ability & speed should lead to him seeing more of the field at both X&Y
As I noted above, Chark has not been a good run blocker.
Also, you are using Y to mean the 3rd WR on the field, positioned in the slot? I’m under the impression that Y is usually an inline TE. I don’t see Chark getting many, if any, snaps in the slot. IMO he is the #2 X WR behind Johnston, and could also get occasional snaps at Z.
WR3: McConkey: I expect Ladd will get 10-20 snaps per game at Z in 2024. Will be interesting to see how his body holds up to an NFL season
If you are saying that you expect McConkey to get just 10-20 snaps per game, I strongly disagree… way too low IMO.
WR4: QJ: I could actually see him fall down the depth chart if he continues to struggle with the fundamentals of the position. I’m rooting for him, but also think there’s a chance that he’s inactive for several games, especially if Rice or Cornelius Johnson prove to be better
I will go on record now and predict that Johnston is not inactive for any games if healthy.
@tau837 It’ll be interesting to see if QJ is given a shot as the starting ‘X’ as you’ve predicted. That could be falling into the same trap as the previous regime and it might help mask his deficiencies to keep him away from the ‘X’ and the types of routes expected from that position (more vertical), against press coverage. I suppose it can’t hurt to give him a shot. But with Chark and Palmer both capable of lining up there, the best 11 personnel combo could be one of those two at X, QJ at Z and Ladd in the Slot imo. When they line up in two receiver sets, QJ might struggle to see the field unless he can work on his run blocking. Fans might be surprised to see Rice or Cornelius Johnson getting some of those looks.
On Palmer, it’s hard to know how his contractual status will bear on his role in the Offense. As a player on an expiring deal, there’s an argument that a monster year from him would benefit the team the most (from a comp pick standpoint). So I’m not sure if the staff would be incentivised to give more looks to others just because Palmer’s heading into FA. Since the incentives work both ways, I expect them to give the snaps to the best player, whether it be Palmer or someone else.
@alisterlloyd I’m sure he will play snaps at Z, to enable him to sometimes line up off the line and sometimes go in motion. But I think he opens as the starting X.
I don’t think Johnston was prepared to successfully take over Mike Williams’ role last season, but IMO that is different than saying he cannot succeed as the X receiver. He played the X receiver position in college and excelled enough that he was widely regarded as a first round pick. The X receiver must be on the line, so he has to be able to do well enough to beat press coverage in that role, and he needs improvement there. But it’s not like there is a single route tree and breakdown for all X receivers… the coaches can have him run the routes that best fit his strengths. Why Kellen Moore didn’t do that is a mystery.
Johnston was understood to be more of a raw prospect than the other top WR candidates last season, so I put more of his lack of success as a rookie on the coaching than on him, though obviously he should be trying everything possible to improve his performance. I have perhaps an irrational confidence in the new coaching staff to use him very differently, in a manner that is a good fit to his strengths… which is why I think he can succeed at X.
I also think that Johnston has a frame that lends itself to being a strong run blocker if he fully applies himself in that area. That would really help him to earn and keep snaps. The other candidates for the X receiver position who have NFL run blocking experience — Palmer and Chark — have not been good run blockers in their careers. Rice and Johnson are unproven as run blockers at the NFL level. So the opportunity is there for this aspect of the position to really help Johnston if he prioritizes it.
Like I said, I think Chark is the insurance if Johnston fails. If Johnston succeeds, I think Chark’s role will be minimized (unless Palmer gets hurt).
As for Palmer, I think many Chargers fans overrate him. IMO he is an average to above average WR3. That is shown by nearly all of the metrics I typically look at for WRs. And he has been a poor run blocker at the NFL level, which will do him no favors with this coaching staff. There is really nothing about him that differentiates him… no particularly compelling aspect to his game.
Of the 6 WRs I expect to make the final roster, 4 of them are set to be with the team through 2026 or later. Palmer and Chark are the 2 who are not, with both becoming UFAs after this season. I realize that Palmer or Chark could have a big season and get re-signed, but, as things stand today, they won’t be back. IMO that means the best situation for the team is to give as many snaps to the other 4 as possible this season to prepare for life after Palmer and Chark. Those other WRs have to play well enough to earn those snaps, of course.
@tau837 No issue with anything you’ve written here about QJ – you can definitely win from the “X” in different ways – and good point also about his hypothetical run blocking upside. I could see that.
Not quite on the same page on Josh Palmer. But close. I think some fans overrate him. I also think others underrate him. For me, a breakout year where he establishes himself as a quality NFL WR2 would be improbable but still within the range of possible outcomes, and more likely imo than him sliding down the depth chart and becoming a roster afterthought. I’ve been impressed by the improvements Palmer’s made to his game since being drafted and he seems to work hard on his route running (after practice with Herbert, etc.). I think he has a chance to be pretty good with this coaching staff.
I think the main point of disagreement is I wouldn’t view the best situation for the team as giving as many snaps as possible to the other 4 until at least the mid-point of the season, if Palmer were to struggle. To start the season, I’d be aiming to hit the high end of possible outcomes (eg, Palmer being so good that he possibly becomes an extension candidate) before giving up on him.
@alisterlloyd I generally agree with this. I think the snaps for Rice and Johnson will likely increase later in the season rather than early, assuming no injuries above them. But I think Johnston and McConkey will be the top two WRs in terms of snaps to open the season. Obviously, if one or both of them doesn’t perform, that will open up opportunities for others.
I don’t think I articulated my point on the 4 long term WRs very well. I was trying to say that the best case outcome for the team would be if those 4 played well enough to dominate the snaps over Palmer and Chark, since that (playing well enough to do so) would be good in 2024 and also good in 2025 and beyond. Meaning the team has some motivation for this to happen.
That is not to say that they will sacrifice better performance for rookie/Johnston snaps. I’m really just saying, if Rice plays equivalently well to Palmer, then Rice should get the snaps. Etc.
@tau837 Until proven otherwise, I do not think this coaching staff is going to allocate playing time based on draft capitol or FA dollars spent. If QJ is going to play, he’s going to have to earn it. With all the technical issues with his game, expecting him to out-play an athletic vet receiver, especially early in the season is asking a lot. Unless he’s physically diminished, Chark should get the majority of the playing time.
Chark has not been a good run blocker.
I do not have access to PFF run blocking grades, but I found this: https://twitter.com/DetroitOnLion/status/1569367203526361089
With his quality overall PFF grade in 2019 (75.2) & 2020 (71.3). my assumption is that Chark is at least a decent blocker.
If you are saying that you expect McConkey to get just 10-20 snaps per game, I strongly disagree… way too low IMO.
I am not confident that McConkey, at least at this stage of his career, has the body to withstand 40+ snaps per game. I think they pick their spots with him and maybe increase his playing time late in the season.
I will go on record now and predict that Johnston is not inactive for any games if healthy.
I believe he was active for every game last year, so this is probably correct. As I said, I can see a world where Chark is 2020 DJ, McConkey is who they think he is and Rice/C Johnson ball out. If QJ is struggling with fundamentals and the other WRs are healthy and out-playing him, then, as I said, I think there’s a CHANCE he’s inactive. This will depend on the work QJ puts in and the progress he makes vs the other receivers on the team.
It’s also worth noting that he is a UFA after the 2024 season and was drafted by the previous regime… no guarantee he will be with the Chargers in 2025, which is another reason the team may prefer to give some of his snaps to Rice and/or Johnson, particularly later in the season.
AJ Smith used to say “you’re a Charger one year at a time.” I think next year’s contract status shouldn’t and won’t matter to a coaching staff that is trying to win games in 2024. The players that give the Chargers the best opportunity to win should (and I believe will) be on the field.
@kevdiego I spent 2 mins trying to work out who “2020 DJ” was a reference to in your post, thinking you were referring to a former Chargers player, like Darius Jennings. Then, I realised you meant DJ Chark himself. I must need a coffee 😀
Awesome post, @tau837
The density with which you argue points does not go unnoticed.
I hope that we can see some middle-of-the-field YAC both with QJ AND McConk. Some of the best moments from QJ’s TCU days are him catching a mid-range pass, turning a dime and accelerating away from would-be linebacker tacklers and into the teeth of small DBs. Similarly on tape, when McConk caught in the mid-range game (sorry that sounds very basketball) his slip-ability and speed caused havoc for tacklers.
QJ should never have been drafted to replace Mike Williams, and I cannot understand why the previous coaching staff misused QJ the manner in which they did. Do you have any idea or hypothesis? Moore used Lamb so well in that role at Dallas but it just didn’t transfer to LA. Was the room ‘too full’ with KA and Williams? Especially early in camp where Johnston might not have gotten as many reps because KA and Williams were both healthy, leading to arrested development?
I also agree on the McConk snap counts – I reckon he is going to be very high in the rookie WR rankings in terms of targets and receptions. However, as Kevdiego points out (i think) his body might be an issue. Hopefully not!
Do you have any idea or hypothesis? Moore used Lamb so well in that role at Dallas but it just didn’t transfer to LA.
Two possibilities:
- Moore assumed that Johnston = Lamb and tried to use them the same, but that approach was flawed and didn’t work.
- Moore was a fraud, propped up by McCarthy, and had no idea how to properly use Johnston.
I don’t know if either of these reasons applies, but can say that this was a huge black mark against Moore IMO.
First post as a new member of the forum. I was a long-time BFTB member but was becoming increasingly annoyed at a) the lack of content, and b) the trolls. But there were obviously a few extremely knowledgeable people on there, Tau amongst them. I really enjoyed your salary and roster articles, Tau.
Judging by the members here, I am excited that the new Chargers have a forum to match, and hopefully it’s a kinder place. Many thanks to Kyle.
As for Johnston, I want to get to a place when I don’t involuntarily wince every time the ball goes his way. In my layman’s view, Palmer is superior in most ways, and probably Chark too. But obviously with the R1 investment, I hope I’m wrong.
Nice article, Tau, and it highlights the disconnect between the stated reasons for drafting QJ vs. his actual use. Yes, he has disturbing tendencies that I really hope he’s been working in the off-season to correct. I believe this staff will do the things necessary to both utilize his strengths better AND build his confidence.
Will QJ live up to his first round cost? For me it’s too soon to say. It’s not unusual for rookies to struggle but ultimately become productive players. While I’d certainly wish for him to become above average to elite again….not all first rounders do. But I’m in no way giving up on him. I give draft picks 3 yrs barring some outrageous incident. QJ has a brand new start this year with an entirely new coaching staff. Let’s give them a shot at helping him to be successful.
This seems a reasonable thread to post this in.
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