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Until proven otherwise, I do not think this coaching staff is going to allocate playing time based on draft capitol or FA dollars spent.
I didn't say that, and I agree with you about this. What I'm saying is that I expect Johnston to play well enough to earn the snaps. I think I was fairly clear about that.
I do not have access to PFF run blocking grades
Chark's career PFF run blocking grades:
- 2023: 49.5 on 250 run blocking snaps
- 2022: 52.1 on 183 run blocking snaps
- 2021: 74.2 on 50 run blocking snaps
- 2020: 50.6 on 205 run blocking snaps
- 2019: 48.7 on 206 run blocking snaps
- 2018: 61.5 on 92 run blocking snaps
That is a long and established track record of below average run blocking.
I am not confident that McConkey, at least at this stage of his career, has the body to withstand 40+ snaps per game. I think they pick their spots with him and maybe increase his playing time late in the season.
We'll have to agree to disagree on this. It would be GM malpractice to trade up for a WR who can only play 10-20 snaps per game due to physical limitations. I don't believe Hortiz committed GM malpractice here and fully expect McConkey to play most of the snaps.
AJ Smith used to say "you're a Charger one year at a time." I think next year's contract status shouldn't and won't matter to a coaching staff that is trying to win games in 2024. The players that give the Chargers the best opportunity to win should (and I believe will) be on the field.
This is all well and good. I'm really saying two things about Palmer:
- He is an average to above average WR3. There is nothing compelling about him that forces the Chargers to give him heavy snaps.
- If it's close between him and Johnston / Rice / Johnson, those guys will get the snaps, not Palmer.
@tau837 I agree that Palmer is not a dynamic, play-making receiver. He's sound. In 2023, it looked like Herbert looked for him a lot in key situations (and he frequently made plays). I think a clutch, technically sound, smart player will find the field frequently on a Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman offense.
FWIW, Palmer's PFF scores:
- 2021: 62.6
- 2022: 65.5
- 2023: 67.6
Not setting the world on fire, but making plays he should make. I think that type of player has a role in a Greg Roman offense (at least until Rice learns the offense and leap-frog's him, which I expect will happen later in the season).
@kevdiego PFF graded 140 WRs who had at least 20 targets in the 2023 regular season. Here are Palmer's 2023 ranks among that group (unless otherwise noted) in various rate-based metrics:
- PFF offense grade: 67.6, #67
- PFF receiving grade: 67.6, #71
- PFF run blocking grade: 51.1, #121 out of 196 WRs with at least 20 run blocking snaps
- Catch percentage: 63.35, tied for #76
- Contested catch percentage: 46.7%, #57
- YPR: 15.4, tied for #23
- YPRR: 1.71, #41
- YAC/reception: 5.0, tied for #44
- Missed tackles forced: 2, tied for #90
- First downs: 22, tied for #67
- TDs: 2, tied for #69
- Drop percentage: 7.3%, #89
- Passer rating when targeted: 99.2, #56
This is solid performance for a WR3. It is not good for a WR1 or, ideally, for a WR2.
@tau837 I think we're in violent agreement on where Palmer fits in a WR room. I think where we disagree on the rest of the WR group. I hope that you are right & QJ ascends this year, becoming one of the top-2 WRs on the team & that McConkey is ready to take 1000+ snaps at WR. I just won't believe it until I see it....
@kevdiego You predicted that McConkey would take 170-340 snaps on offense. Big difference between that and 1000. 😉
I don't think he will play 1000 but think he will play 700+ if he stays healthy.
@tau837 If given the choice, I think I would take the under on 700 snaps for McConkey (although I do expect him to land right around that number). When he's on the field, I expect him to make impactful contributions. I just don't think he's built for taking 40+ snaps per game.
@tau837 Not to carry water for Palmer but last season he suffered an undisclosed injury in August, and then obviously had the knee sprain in Wk 8 that saw him placed on IR and return only for the end of the season. Hard to know the impact these issues had on his game, but I think it's possible that Palmer's output (which was trending upwards nicely from 2021-2022) would've had a better season in 2023 if healthier.
Seems there are 7 reasonable WR candidates for the roster, meaning one or two will wind up being cut/put on the practice squad, barring injury. Personally, I wouldn't want to cut Derius Davis -- he's too valuable a weapon as a punt returner and (potentially) as a KR. Also, as Tau mentioned concerning QJ's not being used well by the previous OC, the same goes for Davis. He was only utilized only for gadgets (sweeps) or deep decoy routes. Whether he cracks the top 5 as a pure wideout doesn't matter that much if he can break a punt return or two into huge gains.
Thanks for the article, Tau. Lot's of good information there. Here's hoping we do see improvement in his separation skills and usage this season.
@kathmandusteve Regarding Davis:
- The new kickoff rules favor an RB returning kicks. The teams line up 10 yards apart and can only move when the receiver catches the ball. The key is to find and hit the hole & break a tackle. This works against Davis. This is a good video to highlight how the kick returns are going to look in 2024:
- Davis was a very average punt returner. He was 4th in average return yards (16) but tied for first in fumbles (3). Davis was a much better kickoff returner, but that's no longer a thing, so...
- Davis had limited snaps at WR in college and was only a gadget player last year. Unless he learns how to play the position, I think he's going to be the odd-man out.
Davis was a very average punt returner. He was 4th in average return yards (16) but tied for first in fumbles (3). Davis was a much better kickoff returner, but that's no longer a thing, so...
Davis was 2nd team All Pro as a punt returner last year. He was a below average kickoff returner. You seem to be saying the opposite.
Among players with at least 10 punt returns last season, Davis had the second highest average yards per return, second highest total punt return yards, and 4th highest PFF punt return grade.
The real question, though, is how much that is worth. NFL teams averaged 292.5 punt return yards last season. Davis had 385... 92.5 more yards than average, which is 5.44 yards per game. He had a TD, which was great, but he also had more fair catches than returns and had 2 muffs and 1 lost fumble.
If this coaching staff is going to give him an actual role on offense, maybe he would merit a roster spot. That did not happen last year, and it seems unlikely he could be a quality run blocker, which might be a problem in the Harbaugh/Roman offense.
Davis making the final roster would also likely mean that one of the other WRs (Palmer, Chark, Rice, Johnson) would have to be cut.
Those are the reasons why I am assuming he won't make the final roster.
@tau837 I would also add that the new coaches/FO didn’t draft him in the 4th round and Hortiz/Ravens may have had him graded much later. At this point I assume that he will be treated as sunk cost and “he is not our guy.” I think that he has to beat out other receivers to land in the top 5-6, moves to the practice squad, or gets cut. His punt return abilities may only give him a spot as a tiebreaker.
And I agree with you, Tau, about Palmer. He's okay as a possession receiver, but certainly lacks the pizzaz and potential upside of Chark, McConkey, and even QJ -- players who can change a game around.
The thing with QJ is that even though he was misused, nothing about his game was inspiring to me. I simply don't think he is valuable. He looked so terrible at catching the ball that I don't even trust him on the field. QJ dropped the last Chargers pass of the 23 season in that Chiefs game and that left a very bad taste in my mouth for him.
I even think the last WR we drafted this year is significantly better than him while also being the same size as QJ with better athleticism.
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Cornelius Johnson is a WR prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored an unofficial 9.90 <a class="css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3 r-1loqt21" dir="ltr" role="link" href=" removed link ">#RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 32 out of 3063 WR from 1987 to 2024.
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Quentin Johnston is a WR prospect in the 2023 draft class. He scored a 8.65 <a class="css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3 r-1loqt21" dir="ltr" role="link" href=" removed link ">#RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 408 out of 3026 WR from 1987 to 2023.
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You can see that Cornelius Johnson is faster, stronger, and makes contested catches.
Why waste time and effort developing QJ? Why waste time and effort drawing up plays for a "limited " WR who drops balls and can't make contested catches?
I would just rather trade him now for a third or fourth-round pick.
The links above from Twitter and youtube were removed
Cornelius Johnson RAS
https://x (dot) com/MathBomb/status/1764024393783472413
Quentin Johnston RAS
https://x (dot) com/MathBomb/status/1645525682129174543?lang=en
2024 NFL Draft Highlights: WR Cornelius Johnson | Michigan Football
https://www (dot) youtube.com/watch?v=EXattmv0Z-g
First off let me say I love this respectful, highly informative chat stream. And a great data and analysis filled article Tau. Really appreciate the effort it takes to provide all that info in context. I am better educated for it.
While I can’t provide the level of analysis you all have here I am always good for offering opinions based on having consistently watched a lot of pro football over 50+ years. For whatever that is worth 🙂
I have already expressed my opinion on QJ’s first season but the article and comments do provide hope that if used the right way he can be much better than he was last year. The coaches failed him more than I was aware but like Alister still think despite the misuse he shares much of the blame.
As for Palmer I am probably one of the commenters who fall into the “fans overrate him” category. I think he is a good player who has gotten open as WR3 frequently but not looked at enough when Allen and Williams were on the field. He is definitely not a WR1 and is a serviceable WR2 but an above average WR3. Tau’s data driven analysis suggests he is nothing special as a WR3. Maybe he is right but for now my eyes and experience disagree. With Allen and Williams gone, this will be a make or break year for him. My bet is he leads the team in catches and yards unless McConkey breaks out from Day 1 which I hope for but do not expect given the learning curve for most rookie WRs.
Last point, I don’t think Harbaugh and co. will make choices as to who plays or does not based on draft position or comp pick value until this team is out of the playoff hunt. They will play those players who give them the best chance to win. Period. And I fully expect them to be in the playoff hunt until the end or worst case the week or two before the end of the season. In other words, QJ will suit up and play if he can help them win. If he looks like he did last year, he will not suit up as the season goes on and guys like Rice will get their chance to contribute. Rice will play better than QJ did last year from his first snap IMO so QJ will need to make a sizeable jump this year. Hopefully that is just what he does.
Two games is a very small sample size, but I'm feeling pretty good about my take in this thread.
@tau837 A few things come to mind after re-reading this entire thread:
- This was a great article by Tau - THANK YOU (and please write more!).
- I really enjoyed everyone's comments. Thoughtful, respectful, well informed.
- Football-wise:
- Johnson has impressed me so far this season. While I still think I would rather have Flowers (my choice at the time), Addison or Mayer (who in hindsight I think would have been the best choice), the confidence in snatching the ball out of the air, adjustments to the ball - QJ just looks like a different player.
- What a difference a year makes. Coming off the Miami game last year, I thought Kellen would be a HC in 2024. After watching the Eagles struggle offensively against the Falcons, I think Kellen's going to be lucky to be an OC in 2025. While that may be a bit of an over-reaction, watching the Falcons pick off Hurts to close out the game reminded me of what Fangio said: (Kevin's paraphrase) When it's time to close out the game, Moore's offense can always be stopped.
- The next two weeks will tell us a lot about the 2024 Chargers. Long season and I think there's a ton of opportunity to improve, especially on offense, but I think the Chargers should be the Steelers and have an opportunity to beat KC at home.
Coaching matters in the NFL. A year ago, I was clutching to the optimistic view that Staley the genius would figure things out. That was hope. This year, I am confident in the coaching staff, which is such a refreshing feeling. The Chargers may not win a championship this year, but the staff they put in place is world-class. They have the ability to lead an average roster to better-than-average results.
I think some thought I was crazy yesterday for saying I'd give QJ a game ball.
@buck-melanoma He made a difficult TD catch look easy. That ball was under thrown by Herbert and Jaycee Horn is no slouch to beat off the line like that. He gets less credit for the second one which was a blown coverage, but he still had to catch it! Glad to see him doing so well.
@alisterlloyd and the second one wad tipped. That's no easy feat to catch a ball at that distance/speed that's had it's trajectory altered.
Was QJ overdrafted? Yes, I believe so. But at least as importantly? Because his game wasn't "NFL ready", he likely needed to be put into more confidence-boosting, winning situations. He wasn't. Moore didn't scheme to his strengths. Staley didn't appear to try to help with that.
I think Harbaugh will build that confidence. Is QJ ever going to be a true #1 or fully live up to his draft slot? Maybe not. But I think he can become a weapon.
@buck-melanoma I think we're seeing what experienced coaching brings you instead of what we got with Staley.
Staley had a lot of problems that got exposed over time, but maybe one thing he can hang his hat on was being a very decent human being. This article criticised a disconnected locker room but at least as far as Quentin Johnson was concerned, Staley seems to have supported him (taken from this article: https://www.espn.com.au/nfl/story/_/id/39161026/los-angeles-chargers-coach-brandon-staley-fired-2023-players-speak)
To wide receiver Quentin Johnston, Staley was the support system he needed in a tumultuous rookie season.
Johnston, the Chargers first-round pick, had his lowest moment of the season in Week 11 against the Green Bay Packers. Johnston dropped a wide-open pass that would have put the Chargers in field goal range with 23 seconds left in the game. The Packers won 23-20 and the Chargers fell to 4-6.
Johnston was visibly upset in the locker room and said there was "no excuse" for the miscue.
After the game, Staley let loose with a tirade aimed at reporters, who questioned the coach's confidence in himself and his defense. Staley called Johnston into his office the next day and pulled up examples of the criticism he'd been receiving.
Staley's message for Johnston was to "block out the noise" -- as Staley planned to do -- because the Chargers believed in him.
Staley often defended players like Johnston in news conferences, giving long complimentary answers about them. He has called outside linebacker Khalil Mack a "Hall of Famer" and "one of the best edge rushers of this generation," and rookie linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu a "baller."
When Johnston suffered a rib injury against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 12 and didn't return despite being cleared by trainers, Staley snapped at reporters who asked if Johnston had been benched.
"It's not because of a lack of confidence. It's not because of any other part of your imagination," Staley said. "Quentin will be out there if he's able to be out there."
Staley sought out Johnston on the practice field, often calling him a "bull" because of his 6-foot-4, 215-pound frame and ability to gain yards after the catch that was on display at TCU. Those moments were always a boost of confidence for Johnston, who says he needed it this season.
"Despite the ups and downs, I feel like all in all, he was a great person just for me to go to when I was just feeling overwhelmed," Johnston said. "And I feel like with his advice, I've been doing pretty good with blocking everything out.
"I'm not a real sentimental person. I'm not a real 'talk about my feelings' type of person, but once he started breaking down stuff to me, just the reassurance that he still believed in me as a player meant a lot to me."
And now Sanjay Lal and Jim Harbaugh have come in and are taking him to the next level. It's great to see.
@alisterlloyd I'm glad Quentin felt supported by Staley. Moore did him no favors.
@alisterlloyd It would have been even better if Staley and his coaching staff coached Johnston up and put him in situations based on his strengths. They didn't do that, but that would have possibly led to more success on the field and Staley never having to have this conversation with Johnston. So it seems like a feeble second place to me for Staley to defend him... yes, it's good, and Staley is a decent human being, but he could have done better for Johnston by coaching him up and using him properly.
@tau837 I agree with that.
I also think whenever we've discussed QJ's usage last year in the many, many conversations we've all had on Stormcloud/BFTB, we've never really considered how injuries to Mike Williams (and Josh Palmer's early season soreness/later injury) impacted the staff's plans and affected how QJ got used in games. Further, we had a GM that sat there like a couch potato doing nothing. Mike Williams went down...did Kellen Moore give QJ the "Mike Williams role" because there was no GM/scout leadership to suggest instead that they pick-up another veteran free agent to play the "X" role (as Joe Hortiz has done with DJ Chark)?
Collectively, they all bear responsibility. But I would love to have been privy to the discussions about QJ's usage and how the coaching staff's plans may have changed over time based on personnel issues.
@buck-melanoma The tipped pass was a different play in Q3 (same play Palmer hurt himself on), but that was also good from QJ!
@alisterlloyd oh I know it was a different play. Just calling attention that neither TD was a gimme catch. 
@buck-melanoma Hey it's refreshing that there's potential confusion because he made multiple of them 😆
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